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UDJ CHECKLIST SUMMARIZING DATA (Populations) Histograms & frequency distributions measures of location mean median mode measures of dispersion variance standard deviation coefficient of variation Chebyshev’s Theorem The Proportion of data within k standard deviations of the mean is at least 1 - 1/k 2 Empirical Rule PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Binomial Poisson Normal Normal approximation to binomial if np ≥ 5 and n(1 -p) ≥ 5 don’t forget continuity correction Convert from X to Z and back again 1 FUNCTIONS OF RANDOM VARIABLES Suppose that W = a + bX + cY Mean and variance of W. Covariance and Correlation If we know the distributions of X and Y, what can we say about the distribution of W? Rule of thumb : if X and Y are normal, you may assume W is also normal. See 1-page handout for details USING SAMPLES X and s as estimates for µ and σ Central Limit Theorem Distribution of the Sample Mean X is normal for large samples (n ≥ 30) , or if X is normal Confidence Intervals for means large samples vs. small samples for proportions E (maximum bound on errors) solving for sample size Hypothesis Testing Type I and Type II errors: α and β One sided vs. two sided tests: decision rules Critical Values (for Z or X) P-values Small vs. Large samples: t test vs. Z test Means vs. proportions 2 REGRESSION Simple Regression (one independent variable) Multiple Regression (more than one independent variable) Dummy Variables (X = 0 or 1, e.g., sex), Lagged variables Correlation Matrix t-tests F-test R2 and adjusted R2 Standard deviation of regression Confidence Intervals For forecasts For model parameters (coefficients) Dealing with multicolinearity Dealing with outliers Residual Analysis (testing model assumptions) autocorrelation & Durbin-Watson test heteroscedasticity normality of errors Transformations Spurious relationships and causality 3