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Download Simulation of SIR Epidemic Model Using Statecharts Versus CBD
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Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using AgentBased Versus System Dynamics Models Omar Alam Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics? Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics? Simulation of infection models Solution! AB: Statecharts FSD using CBD Epidemic models Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al. SIR model Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al. SIR model Kermack-Mckendric model Used to study plaque in London (1665-1666), and Bombay in 1906. Cholera in London 1865 SIR model Source: http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/ SIR model Beta: infection rate Alpha: infection period Source: http://jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php/Epidemiology:_The_SIR_model SIR model SIR model Initial population SM1 SM2 SN S Initial infected IA Infection rate Recovery rate RM R IN I SIR model 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232 239 246 253 260 267 274 281 0 SuscInteg Integrator 996.0 RecInteg Integrator 0.0 InfInteg Integrator 4.0 Population: 1000, Initial infection 4, Infection period: 3, infection rate 0.2 Statecharts approach A statechart for each individual Multiple statecharts Enable moving Statecharts approach: architecture Statecharts approach: architecture Controller Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller Updates location 800 1 386 771 1156 1541 1926 2311 2696 3081 3466 3851 4236 4621 5006 5391 5776 6161 6546 6931 7316 7701 8086 8471 8856 9241 9626 10011 10396 10781 11166 11551 11936 12321 12706 13091 13476 13861 14246 14631 Statecharts approach: results 1200 1000 recovered susceptible infected 600 400 200 0 Population: 1000, initial infection 4, infection period 3 1 124 247 370 493 616 739 862 985 1108 1231 1354 1477 1600 1723 1846 1969 2092 2215 2338 2461 2584 2707 2830 2953 3076 3199 3322 3445 3568 3691 3814 3937 4060 4183 4306 4429 4552 4675 4798 4921 5044 5167 5290 5413 Statecharts approach: results 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Population: 500, initial infection 2, infection period 3 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 751 1501 2251 3001 3751 4501 5251 6001 6751 7501 8251 9001 9751 10501 11251 12001 12751 13501 14251 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Series1 Series2 Series3
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