Download Anthropogenic Biomes - Laboratory for Anthropogenic Landscape

Anthropogenic Biomes, Land-Use Systems
Erle Ellis
Department of Geography & Environmental Systems
University of Maryland, Baltimore County
German-US Conference
Tough Choices - Land Use under a Changing Climate
Berlin, Germany
October 2, 2008
Overview
Trends in Agriculture & Global Climate Change
• Agricultural Change and Global Climate Change
• Anthropogenic Biomes & Land Use Systems
– What is Agriculture?
– Rangelands, Croplands & Villages
• Measuring & modeling global changes in
multi-functional agricultural mosaics
Cropland and Pasture 2000
Cropland
15 million km2
12% of ice free land
Pasture
28 million km2
22% of ice free land
Ramankutty, N., A. T. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley. 2008.
Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural
lands in the year 2000. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22:GB1003.
Changes in Cropland Area: 1960 - 1990
+
Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, and N. J. Olejniczak. 2002.
People on the land: Changes in global population and
croplands during the 20th century. AMBIO 31:251-257.
Land clearing: tropics (plantations, crops)
Land abandoned: Americas, China, Eastern Europe
Return to production (recent grain prices): USA
Agriculture Intensifies: 1960 - 2000
Changes in Management
Hazell, P. and S. Wood. 2008.
Drivers of change in global
agriculture. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society B:
Biological Sciences 363:495-515.
Agriculture and Global Climate Change
• Agricultural Change
• Changes in Areas: Extent and Landscape structure
• Changes in Management Practices: e.g. irrigation…
• Agriculture is a cause of global climate change
– Biophysical: surface heat balance, aerosols
– Biogeochemistry: carbon balance, greenhouse gases
• Agriculture is impacted by global climate change
– Altered environments for crops and livestock
– Adaptation by managers
•
•
Management: irrigation practices, varieties…
Extent and landscape structure: land abandonment,
new irrigation systems, land clearing
Climate Change and Suitability for Crops
 Colder regions get better
 Drier regions get worse
Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, J. Norman, and K.
McSweeney. 2002. The global distribution of
cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity
to possible climate change. Global Ecology and
Biogeography 11:377-392.
“Agriculture is embedded in Anthropogenic Biomes”
What is agriculture?
•
•
•
•
•
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The cropped/grazed part of landscapes
Agroecosystems
Part of land use systems
Part of multifunctional landscape mosaics
Part of human systems
Part of Anthropogenic Biomes (Anthromes)
Anthropogenic
Biomes
a new framework for ecology and earth
science in the 21st century
Anthromes: global patterns of sustained
human interaction with the biosphere.
Anthropogenic Biomes: An Empirical Approach
Population density (urban, rural)
Croplands
Pastures
Irrigation
Rice
Tree & bare cover
(Vegetation Continuous Fields)
Anthropogenic Biomes
Cluster
Analysis
Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008
Anthropogenic Biomes of the World (v1)
Urban & dense settlements
11 Urban
12 Dense settlements
Villages
21
22
23
24
25
26
Rice
Irrigated
Cropped & pastoral
Pastoral
Rainfed
*
Rainfed mosaic
Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008
Croplands
31 Residential irrigated
32 Residential rainfed mosaic
33 Populated irrigated
34 Populated rainfed
35 Remote
Rangelands
41 Residential
42 Populated
43 Remote
Forested
51 Populated forests
52 Remote forests
Wildlands
61 Wild forests
62 Sparse trees
63 Barren
*Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with
> 25% pasture and/or cropland
Anthropogenic Biomes of the World
40 million km2
0.3 billion people
Rangelands
Grazing land, minimal crops
and forests
Residential
Populated
Remote
Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008
6% global tree cover
16% global cropland
Croplands
Remote
Rangelands
Atlas Mountains,
South
Dakota, USA
Morocco
Credit: © Alexander Smart. <http://ars.sdstate.edu/faculty/smarta/Range415/Image035.jpg>
Populated Rangelands
Atlas Mountains, Morocco
Anthropogenic Biomes of the World
27 million km2
0.9 billion people
Croplands
25% global tree cover
53% global cropland
Crops mixed with other land uses
Residential irrigated
Residential rainfed mosaic
Populated irrigated
Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008
Populated rainfed
Remote
Remote Croplands
Colombia Basin, Washington, USA
Credit: © GWMA <http://www.gwma.org/images/CroplandAdjusted.jpg>
Croplands - Residential Rainfed Mosaic
Normandy, France
Credit: © JH.Bernard. <http://pagesperso-orange.fr/rmc14/images/IMAGES-RMC/RMC-6.JPG>
Anthropogenic Biomes of the World
8 million km2
2.6 billion people
Villages
Densely populated agriculture
rural population >100 person km-2
Rice
Irrigated
Cropped & pastoral
Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008
4% global tree cover
24% global cropland
Pastoral
Rainfed
Rainfed mosaic
Rainfed Mosaic Villages
Jintang County, Sichuan Province, China
Rice Villages
Danyang County, Jiangsu Province, China
Anthropogenic Biomes
Globally
People
80% in urban and village anthromes
Land
22% wild biomes, 78% anthropogenic biomes
NPP
11% wild biomes, 89% anthropogenic biomes
32% in Croplands biomes
33% Forested biomes
Crops
Villages 24% + 50% in populated croplands (>1 person km-2)
Most irrigation and rice is in villages
>25% global tree cover is embedded in Croplands
Global
Cultivated
Anthromes
Urban
Densely settled
Land use (%) Land cover (%)
rice
irrigated
irrigated crops & pasture
Villages
pastoral
rainfed
8 million km2
24% global cropland
rainfed mosaic
residential irrigated
Croplands
residential rainfed mosaic
populated rainfed
populated irrigated
27 million km2
remote
53% global cropland
Residential
rainfed
pasture
Populated irrigated
Rangelands
Remote
Populated forests
Remote forests
Wildlands
herb
bare
< trees
Anthropogenic Biomes are
Multifunctional Land Mosaics
–
–
–
–
Mixtures of different land uses and land covers.
Urban areas are embedded in agricultural areas.
Croplands are mixed with trees and housing.
Managed vegetation is mixed with semi-natural
vegetation (e.g. croplands in rangelands and forests).
– Hillslopes & mountains are often islands of
semi-natural vegetation
© Erle C. Ellis, 2005
Landsat (28.5m)
Jintang
500m Sample Cell
R05_C12
© Erle C. Ellis, 2005
IKONOS
Jintang
500m Sample Cell
R05_C12
© Erle C. Ellis, 2005
Tropical Hilly Region
DIANBAI
1 km2 Sample
2001
IKONOS
October 27, 2001
Ellis et al., 2006
Tropical Hilly Region
DIANBAI
1 km2 Sample
1945
Aerial
May 14, 1944
Ellis et al., 2006
Tropical Hilly Region
DIANBAI
1 km2 Sample
COVER
Change
1945 - 2001
Vegetation
- Regeneration
-7 - -3
-3 - -1
0
1 - 3
4 - 7
+ Denudation
Ellis et al., 2006
Brodie, P. 1990. Crescent over Cathay: China and ICI, 1898 to 1956. Oxford University Press, New York.
~25% of Global N Fertilizer Use
chem fertilizer appl picture
© Erle C. Ellis, 2002
household survey
© Erle C. Ellis, 2005
Agricultural Mosaics and Climate Change
Challenges
• Observing global changes in agricultural mosaics
• Modeling interactions between climate and
management (adaptation & feedbacks)
A way forward….
• Global Sampling, Measurement and Modeling of
Agricultural Landscape Processes
http://ecotope.org