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Climate change: a cause for new biodiversity conservation objectives but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater Suzanne Prober1 & Michael Dunlop2 CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences 1 2 Private Bag 5, Wembley WA 6913 GPO Box 284, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia The likelihood of dramatic climate change impacts on Australia’s biodiversity is increasingly recognized, and with this, the need to adjust the goals of biodiversity management and policy. In particular, it will be important to shift our focus from preserving species and current species composition, towards maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes (Dunlop & Brown 2008; Bennett et al 2009; Steffen et al. 2009). We may need to accept that gradually the giant tingle trees will disappear from the south-west forests, and that snow gums may invade areas we currently value as alpine herbfield. But we can reasonably hope that current biota will be replaced by functioning, diverse ecosystems that effectively capture limiting ecological resources and provide ecosystem services, including beautiful places for human enjoyment. This proposed shift from goals focusing on species and ecological communities towards goals focusing on processes is pragmatic and offers primary directions for policy and implementation. It could favour a low-intervention philosophy: letting nature take its course but ensuring that the stage is effectively set for adaptation, especially in environments impacted by human activity. It suggests we might invest less in single-species conservation efforts, and concentrate more on ecological resilience and adaptability. At the ecosystem scale this might include minimizing non-climatic stressors and conserving species diversity to optimize availability of species to maintain ecological functions (redundancy). At the landscape scale it means conserving a diversity of habitats to provide options for species to shift and reassemble, and in some cases, restoring connectivity that will facilitate these shifts. The latter in particular has already entered the policy agenda and has gained public popularity in implementation through ambitious projects such as GondwanaLink (NRMMC 2010). On the other hand, in this shift towards process-based goals, we must also avoid throwing the baby out with the bath water. In accepting that the mix of species will change in any particular place and that we may lose some or many species, do we accept anything that grows? Why restore native ecological communities that are legacies of the past, why control boxthorns when they could provide critical bird habitat? Why not construct our new ecosystems from species of practical utility; is it worth investing in expensive translocations? These questions arise because it is more than processes that many of us value. We identify with our unique flora and fauna; it contributes to diversity on the world stage. What would Australia be without the gum tree, marsupials, its diversity of colourful parrots? We can or must accept some change: indeed something we value is the representation of our changing environmental history in the Australian biota – our links with the southern hemisphere continents through the Gondwanan plant families such as the Proteaceae, or to even earlier times through the ancient Araucarias. However, once we’ve crossed the line from managing for what we know to managing for what might be, it is no longer straightforward to define objectives and targets for biodiversity conservation. To avoid an ‘anything goes’ response, we need to be more explicit about what we value in our biodiversity, and encapsulate those values in new conservation goals. Establishing these goals requires a philosophical debate that is only just beginning. Clear answers may take a decade or more to emerge but here we offer a few ideas. We might, for example, aim to maintain the evolutionary character of the Australian biota. Over 85% of Australian vascular plant species are endemic to the continent, and this might offer a target to aim for. This approach supports a goal of ecological re-assembly by Australian native species rather than species originating from outside Australia, promoting ongoing or increasing support for exotic species management. Similarly, it favours the conservation or restoration of environments and processes that have driven the evolution of our distinct biota. This might include conserving remnants with natural (low) soil nutrient levels in otherwise nutrientenriched agricultural landscapes, maintaining areas grazed by native marsupials rather than livestock, or allowing fire regimes to evolve in response to changes in litter dynamics and fire weather. As well as continental endemics, Australia’s biogeographic history has endowed us with many regional endemics. Thus within the broad bounds of maintaining the evolutionary character of the Australian biota, we might propose a ‘proximity principle’, favouring community reassembly by proximate rather than distant Australian species. This might be especially important in the biodiversity hotspot of south-western Australia for example, to maintain its evolutionary distinctness from the east. On the other hand, it should allow flexibility at the local to regional scale dependent on the extent of likely stress. This would permit, for example, considered inclusion of drought-tolerant native species or genetic stock in revegetation. Another goal might simply be to minimize native species loss at the national scale – allowing for movements and adjustments across the continent (or smaller defined regions) but managing for maximum diversity and species turnover. For better or worse, this may encourage a focus on species-level conservation or translocations. However, a more critical ingredient is to conserve a very wide diversity of Australian environments, including climatic refugia. While the latter is consistent with approaches suggested by process-focused goals, this will not always be the case. For example, an unexpected option might be to limit connectivity in selected unique or diverse areas. This could increase the potential for climatically marginalised native species to survive, by isolating them from invasion by exotic or even native species, or protecting them from fire. In changing our conservation goals, indeed in the haste to adopt new ones, there is also a real risk of prematurely discarding the biodiversity conservation tools that we have painstakingly established over the past half-century. Many of these tools are well-placed to help us meet these new challenges. A network of perpetual conservation reserves, designed according to principles of comprehensiveness, adequacy and representativness (CAR), remains a highly appropriate mechanism for conserving a diversity of natural environments. Some adjustments (e.g. another R to emphasize resilience and the need for a wider margin in all of our conservation efforts) will add value, but the fundamental principles are not broken by the phenomenon of species coming and going. Similarly, threatened ecological community listings highlight those environments that are most under threat, development controls and listing of threatening processes will be increasingly relevant for reducing non-climatic stressors on our biota; and the importance of community awareness and education in achieving conservation goals has never been more critical. Hence, while current approaches are increasingly questioned, we should also ask whether we risk more in disabling them than in working with and adapting what we have. To conclude, managing biodiversity under climate change will largely be about facilitating nature’s response. We will need to accept much change, but we do have some capacity to influence outcomes through policy and on-ground action: we should not stop short of goals that target the essence of what we value in Australia’s biodiversity. References Bennett A.F., A. Haslem A., Cheal D., Clarke M. F., Jones R., Koehn J., Lake P.S., Lumsden L.F., Lunt I.D., Mackey B., Mac Nally R., Menkhorst P., New T., Newell G., O'Hara T., Quinn G.P., Radford J.Q., Robinson D., Watson J.E.M. and Yen A. (2009). Ecological processes: a key element in strategies for nature conservation. Ecological Management and Restoration 10, 192-199. Dunlop M., Brown P.R. (2008) Implications of Climate Change for Australia’s National Reserve System. A Preliminary Assessment. Report to the Department of Climate Change. Department of Climate Change, Canberra. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/nrs-report.ashx Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (2010). Australia’s Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-2030. Australian Government, Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Canberra. Steffen W., Burbidge A., Hughes L., Kitching R., Lindenmayer D., Musgrave W., Stafford Smith M., Werner P. (2009). Australia's Biodiversity and Climate Change. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.