Download - Central Bank of Aruba

C ENTRALE B ANK
VAN
A RUBA
An update of the estimation of Aruba’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for
2011, 2012 and 2013
Press Release1
The Centrale Bank van Aruba (CBA) recently reviewed its estimates for economic growth for 2011-2013,
considering the most current information at hand. Revised data indicate, among others, delays in
project execution in 2013. Consequently, the CBA adjusted its outlook and currently projects a lower
growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2013, i.e., +2.6 percent versus the November 2012
projection (+5.1 percent).
Developments in 2011 and 2012
The economic growth in 2011 generally reflected the resumed activities of the refinery, following its
re-opening in January 2011 and further gains in tourism activities. Whereas the CBA estimated the real
economic growth at 5.6 percent in November 2012, the projection was adjusted downwards to 3.7
percent, due to more accurate data becoming available to the CBA. The suspension of refinery
activities as of March 2012 heavily influenced economic growth in 2012. Furthermore, in 2012, the CBA
noted that some planned investment projects incurred significant delays, shifting some of these
investments to 2013. The positive performance of the tourism sector compensated to some extent
for the investment delays, but still the estimated GDP for 2012 contracted by 1.2 percent (Table 1).
Projection for 2013
The CBA foresees a growth in real GDP of 2.6 percent for 2013, which is 2.5 percentage points lower
than the projection made in November 2012. While the tourism sector is still expected to drive output
in 2013, the CBA anticipates some further delays in the execution of several investment projects,
which will likely cause a decline in private investment activities in 2013. However, there are still a
number of sizable investment projects envisaged in 2013, including the Green Corridor, the
completion of the Ritz Carlton, the new container port, and the renovation and expansion of the
hospital. Furthermore, the CBA foresees that the significant reductions in the water tariffs (as of
August 2012) and the electricity tariffs (as of November 2012) will cause a decrease in the general
price level (inflation) in 2013, which could have a positive impact on the purchasing power of
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The English text prevails.
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consumers, and, subsequently, on real output. Despite the projected growth, the real GDP level in
2013 will probably remain below the levels achieved before 2008 (Table 2).
Risks to the projections
Downside risks to the presented outlook remain, including possible further setbacks in the actual
implementation of the planned investment projects in 2013 and a worsening international
environment. Alternatively, better than expected improvements in the world economy and a reopening of the oil refinery could improve the GDP-outcome.
Table 1: Economic growth for Aruba in real terms, expressed in percentages¹
2011
2012
April 2013 Nov. 2012
Estimate
Estimate
Real GDP
3.7
5.6
Real Consumption
1.8
Real Investment
Real Imports
Change April 2013 Nov. 2012
Estimate
Estimate
-1.9
-1.2
-1.2
5.2
-3.4
1.6
1.5
1.5
0.0
8.8
10.5
-1.7
2013
Change April 2013 Nov. 2012
Change
Estimate
Estimate
0.0
2.6
5.1
-2.5
2.4
-0.8
2.1
0.9
1.2
-10.2
-9.6
-0.6
-14.8
11.9
-26.7
-5.0
-4.2
-0.8
-3.2
2.8
-6.0
Real Exports
14.4
14.8
-0.4
-5.3
-5.4
0.1
3.6
4.7
-1.1
Notes: Table 1 presents the forecast of economic growth conducted by the CBA in November 2012 and in April 2013. Figures
represent % growth rates.
Table 2: Gross domestic product for Aruba (in Afl. Million)
2008
Real GDP
3,072.9
Nominal GDP
4,914.3
Notes: Real GDP is based on 1995 prices.
2009
2,724.6
4,473.1
2010
2,626.8
4,279.0
Centrale Bank van Aruba
April 25, 2013
2
2011
2,725.3
4,565.6
2012
2,691.9
4,554.6
2013
2,762.2
4,591.4