Download Ziad Mimi - Birzeit University - Arab Climate Resilience Initiative

Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptations
and Policy-Making Process: Palestine
as a Case Study
By
Ziad A. Mimi1, Michael Mason2 and Mark Zeitoun2
1Institute
of Environmental and Water Studies (IEWS), Birzeit
University, P.O Box 14, Birzeit, Palestine, e-mail:
[email protected]
2Centre
of Environmental Policy and Governance, Department
of Geography & Environment, London School of Economics
and Political Science, UK
Key climate change actors and
research at Palestine
Ministries
EQA/UNDP
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Strategy for
the Occupied
Palestinian
Territory
(2009)
International
organizations
Rising
Temperatures,
Rising Tensions.
The project was
implemented by
the International
Institute for
Sustainable
Development
(IISD).
Universities
GLOWAJordan River
Project:
Climate Change Analysis of the
Eastern Mediterranean
According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), the
Mediterranean region is forecast to receive a mean warming over
this century of 2.2oC-5.1oC (Scenario A1B).
Precipitation is forecast to decrease by 10% by 2020 and 20% by
2020, with an increase in drought periods. A Japanese/Tel Aviv
University climate change analysis forecasts a 82-98% decrease in the
Jordan River flow by 2100.
In its draft Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2008) the Israeli
Ministry of the Environment predicts the sea level in the
Mediterranean to increase by 0.5 metres in 2050 and 1 metre by
2100
Analysis of the Climate Change
Situation in Palestine
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
“sustainable development can reduce
vulnerability to climate change”
(IPCC 2007 in UNDP 2008)
 WHAT IS ‘VULNERABILITY’ ?
Climate Vulnerability =
Biophysical Vulnerability +
Social Vulnerability
GEO-4 (UNEP 2007)
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
Biophysical Vulnerability = “the degree to which a [physical]
system is… unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change” IPCC
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x
(exposure)
Social Vulnerability =
measure of a society to adapt to hazards
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
(i.e. the residual impact after adaptation measures implemented)
Key Components of Social VULNERABILITY
Adaptive Capacity 
ability to develop long-term options
Coping range 
ability to generate short-term solutions
Adapted from Vincent (2004).
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x (exposure)
Harsh climate
+
High exposure
Shelter for Sudanese refugees in Chad, 2004
 High
Physical Risk
High Risk
+
High coping mech.,
but
Low Adaptation
High Social
Vulnerability
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x (exposure)
Harsh climate
+
High exposure
Shelter for American citizens, California USA
 High Risk
But…
Relatively Low Climate Vulnerability

High Risk
+
Many Coping Mech.,
+ High Adaptive
Capacity
(e.g.insurance)
Low Social
Vulnerability
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x (exposure)
Refugees from Palestine, 1948
Harsh climate
+
High exposure
 High
Physical Risk
High Risk
+
High coping mech.,
but
Low Adaptation
High Social
Vulnerability
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
SOCIO - POLITICAL VULNERABILITY
= the political component of vulnerability.
Are national adaptation plans applied evenly?
Does ‘political cover’ extend selectively to
some communities?
How does the marginalisation of a community
or people affect their ability to adapt??
Financial mobility?
Physical mobility?
Towards a Vulnerability Assessment…
Determinants and Indicators of Climate Change, Water and Vulnerability
Discuss during focus
group discussions
e.g. What are the links
between Livelihood
Choices and Water
Infrastructure??
WEST BANK
Palestinians living in Area
C are the most vulnerable in
their subsistence living.
Vulnerable to
elements (in plastic tents),
seasons (drought, frost),
violence (from settlers) and
expulsion (from IDF).
West Bank: Jordan River Valley
Problems that are related to
water availability
1
Drastic drop
in rainfall
Reducing the quantity
of water through
indiscriminate
destruction of water
infrastructure such as
pipes, cisterns and
wells
2
Israeli
Practices
Reducing accessibility
to water sources
through denial of
travel to the Jordan
River
Denial of permission to
construct water and
sanitation infrastructure
like deep wells
Supplying water to
settlements
3
Damaged
agricultural
wells
Jericho
- Biophysical
Vulnerability
West
Bank
– CLIMATE
VULNERABILITY
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x (exposure)
‘Ein Fasa’el spring (feeding Fasa’el village)
Drop in precipiation
+
Livelihoods dependant
on irrigated agriculture
 High
Physical Risk
Unplanted fields near Fasa’el (May 2007)
High Risk
+
Low coping mech.,
+
Low Adaptation
High Social
Vulnerability
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
Jericho - Biophysical Vulnerability
Unplanted fields near Fasa’el (May 2007)
[Ziad… more on jericho]
Zubeydat (May 2007)
Irrigated agriculture
West Bank – CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x (exposure)
Rainfed agriculture near Massafer Yatta
Drop in precipiation
+
Livelihoods dependant
on irrigated agriculture
 High
Physical Risk
Sfay al Tahta
High Risk
+
High coping mech.,
but
Low Adaptation
High Social
Vulnerability
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
…Remember
Climate Vulnerability =
Biophysical Vulnerability + Social Vulnerability
… and the political component !
Metrological data
Methodology of
Analysis
Temperature, precipitation,
relative humidity, sunshine
hours and wind speed
Historical data
Formulated
scenarios
Crop data
Soil data
Soil texture, available
moisture, infiltration rate
and initial soil moisture
CROPWAT
Computer
model
Irrigation water
requirement
IWR
Reference
evapotranspiration
ETo
Length of growing period,
crop coefficient, crop yield
response factor and root
zone
Crop water
requirement
CWR
GAZA
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
Nearly ALL Palestinians in Gaza are highly vulnerable in their
subsistence living:
Vulnearble to:
the elements (heating),
seasons (drought, shorter growing seasons),
violence (internally, and from IDF)
expulsion/home demolition (from IDF); and
(mainly) – the economy (even remittances are slowing).
GAZA - BIOPHYSICAL VULNERABILITY
(Physical) RISK = HAZARD x VULNERABILITY
(climate) x
(exposure)
Sea-level rise (Harsh
climate)
+
Houses near shore (?)
(Med exposure)
 Med -High Risk
Afifi - Gaza Coastal and Marine Environmental
Protection and Management Action Plan, MEA
 + Even worse water quality
GAZA – SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
High Risk
+
Low Coping and
Adaptative Capacity
 High Risk
GAZA – SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
(Social) VULNERABILITY = RISK – ADAPTATION
27 March 2007
before
(Very) High Risk
+
(Very) Low Adaptative
Capacity
 Extreme Risk
GAZA – SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
GAZA AS A WHOLE is
socially vulnerable to
environmental hazards
Gaza is under siege;
Lifelines extend near, but
not to it…
Coping mechanisms abound;
BUT…
…long-term adaptation is
foreclosed by politics.
Example of Potential Findings
e.g. Tel Aviv
e.g. Fesa’el
Adapting to Vulnerability – Adaptive Capacity
Grey Water re-use – cheese water
Rainwater Harvesting – Wadi Terracing
Adapting to Vulnerability – Coping Mechanisms
Adaptation Integration into Policy and
Planning