Download Lecture -1: Climate System, Global Warming Green House

WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk
Management
Lecture-1: Module-1 and 2
Climate System, Global Warming
Green House gases
Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
3 May 2016
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Module-1

Climate System and Hydrologic cycle
 Atmosphere
 Cryosphere:
Sea, Ice sheet, Glacier
 Hydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactions
 Hydrologic Cycle
 Biosphere and Ecosystem
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Module-2

Climate variability and climate
change
 Global
warming and green house gases
 Historic aspects of global climate change
 Climate change in South Asian context:
Case study
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Weather and Climate
Climate Variability and Change
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Weather and Climate change

Weather describes current atmospheric conditions,
such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a
particular place and time. It changes from day to day.

Climate is the average (or ‘normal’) pattern of weather
for a particular place over several decades. Changes
in climate are hard to detect without very long-term
records.

“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you
get” Heinlein, 1974.
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Climate Variability
Climate variability can
be defined by climate
patterns such as the
El-Niño Southern
Oscillation and climate
change refers to things
which happen over
centuries, like global
warming.
air temperature over five years
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Climate Systems

The complicated system consisting of various
components, including the dynamics and
composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the
ice and snow cover, the land surface and its
features, the many mutual interactions between
them, and the large variety of physical, chemical
and biological processes taking place in and
among these components. Climate refers to the
state of the climate system as a whole, including
a statistical description of its variations.

Atmosphere
 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases.
 Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%.
 Water vapor 0 to 2%
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Components of Climate System
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house gases

CO2 and some other minor gases
1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the
surface of the earth.
2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out
to space.

These radiatively active gases are known as
greenhouse gases.
 They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation
from the surface which enables it to be substantially
warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the
effect of a greenhouse.
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house gas effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Human induced climate
variation



Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the
enhanced greenhouse effect
Effect of aerosols:
 direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation)
 indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of
clouds)
Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation,
reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Human induced changes of green
house gases
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Increasing trends of CO2
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
CO2 from the measuring station at Mauna Loa (Hawaii) is
located at an altitude of 3400 meters
Global temperature and
Greenhouse gases
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Temperature variation past 1,000
years
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Increase of Temperature past 140
year
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Trends of increase of
Temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Recent trends of increasing
temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Global mean land-ocean surface temperature
base period: 1951-1980
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Rise of temperature
This graph illustrates the change in global surface
temperature relative to 1951-1980 average
LATEST MEASUREMEN
January 2015 0.87 °C
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Surface Air temperature (1960-1990)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Changes of Sea Surface Temperature
https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/sea-surface-temp.html
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Trends of Global Land Precipitations
Time series for 1900 to 2005 of annual global land precipitation anomalies (mm)
with respect to the 1981 to 2000 base period
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-3-2.html
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Arctic Sea Ice melting

Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea
ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979
2012
2003
Yellow line represents
Area 30 years before
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Cracks in Ice bars
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Sea level rise


Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to global
warming: the added water from melting land ice and the
expansion of sea water as it warms. The first chart tracks the
change in sea level since 1993 as observed by satellites.
The second chart, derived from coastal tide gauge data, shows
how much sea level changed from about 1870 to 2000.
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Decreasing Land Ice

Data from NASA's GRACE satellites show that the land ice
sheets in both Antarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The
continent of Antarctica has been losing about 134 billion metric
tons of ice per year since 2002, while the Greenland ice sheet
has been losing an estimated 287 gigatonnes per year.
(Source:http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/
GRACE satellite data)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Changes of Sea Surface Temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Responsibility ?
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Global Emission
2005
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Global Emission
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Per capita emission
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Bangladesh
1990 – 0.1 ton
2009 – 0.36 ton
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Per capita CO2 emission in 2005
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Per capita CO2 emission in 2014
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam