Download Aspirations Realized? Underprepared Students and PSE Degree Completion in BC

Aspirations Realized? Underprepared students and PSE
Degree Completion in BC
EDST 536 – TERM PAPER
AUGUST 31, 2022
Anthony Roberts
EDST 536
Term Paper
A. Roberts
Aspirations Realized? Underprepared students and PSE Degree Completion in BC
In response to rising demands for university credentials, higher education systems in Canada
have expanded their seating capacity and differentiated their programs. Institutional
expansion and differentiation are described in the EDST 536 assigned readings in general terms
by Jones (2014) and are more directly referenced in the Pizarro-Milian (2017), Fisher et al
(2009), and Walker (2016) readings. This paper will explore structural changes in relation to
PSE opportunity structures (pathways) and the consequences for degree completion by
students who vary in their academic preparedness for university-level study.
Introduction
In his analysis of PSE expansion and the move to greater accessibility, Davies (2005) argued that
many students' aspirations would exceed their capabilities with consequently higher levels of
attrition. Others have similarly indicated that a lack of preparedness in high school limits
students' academic engagement and achievement in university (Cote & Allahar, 2007; Finnie &
Martinello, 2010). However, they also point to differences in universities’ quality of instruction
and campus resources as being importantly associated with program success or failure (Finnie
& Qiu, 2008; Finnie & Usher, 2005; Oreopoulos, 2021).
Within systems characterised by differences in resources, facilities, and faculty expertise,
universities form status hierarchies reinforced by admissions selectivity (Pizarro-Milian, 2017;
Stack, 2021). Selective admissions attempt to align students’ HSGPA with an institution’s
position in the status hierarchy. Such student-institution ‘matching’ is associated with degree
completion -- at least in systems with relatively steep hierarchies including the US and the UK
(Dillon & Smith, 2015; Jackson & Kurlaender, 2013). Less extreme but still hierarchical
structures are found in British Columbia where institutions are grouped as research intensive
universities (RIUs), teaching intensive universities (TIUs), and college transfer programs (CT)
(Cowin, 2018). Each represents a possible pathway to a BA or BSc degree. However, these
pathways vary in their admission requirements with RIU’s being less accessible than either TIU’s
or CT’s (Arida, 2013). Recent studies indicate selective enrolments into these pathways are
associated with different degree completion outcomes (Heslop, 2015). This suggests either
student ability clusters or qualitative differences in the institutions that comprise the various
pathways (Light & Strayer, 2000; Childs, Finnie & Martinello, 2017). It is also possible that
vertically stratified pathways have a differential effect on student outcomes. Recent US studies
report an important exception to the matching assumption in the placement of ‘underprepared’ students. Cook (2021) reports that those with lower HSGPA’s fare better not when
they are admitted to an accessible program but to one that is more selective -- that is, when
they are ‘over-matched’.
This paper first summarizes the relevant theoretical literature on ‘persistence and attainment’
in higher education that incorporates both student characteristics and institutional structures in
1
predicting university degree completion. The case of academically ‘underprepared’ students is
reviewed in this context. It then summarizes the Canadian literature on degree completion that
links student engagement with institutional structures before offering an empirical example of
the relationship between degree completion and the intersecting antecedents of student
academic preparation (HSGPA) and pathway structure, with particular attention to academically
underprepared students’ degree completion rates. Modelling degree completion in this way
will help clarify how successful BC’s (moderately) stratified higher education system is in
meeting students’ uniformly high aspirations but uneven levels of academic preparedness.
Background
1. Predicting degree completion
Melguizo (2011) reviewed several post-secondary persistence models with most being
derivative of the ‘Tinto model’ (Tinto, 1975; Spady, 1971). As initially proposed, that model
drew on anthropological and sociological theories of alienation and estrangement from
community to explain student ‘dropout’ (Van Gennep, 1960; Durkheim, 1951). Tinto’s model
and similar formulations argue processes of academic and social integration underlie students’
decisions to depart from or persist in their studies. A distinctive feature of the Tinto formulation
is a recognition that both individual differences and institutional features play a role in student
persistence (Light & Strayer, 2000). The model has since undergone significant revision in
response to several critiques (Tinto, 2017). A criticism of the original Tinto model was its focus
on students’ current situations on campus. Researchers of persistence have since incorporated
broader life course experiences and social structures in their analyses (Morgan, 2014). A second
criticism concerned the lack of attention to actual mechanisms that support integration. Kuh’s
(2008) studies on engagement, for example, have emphasized the importance of specific
student study behaviours and relationship initiatives as underlying successful academic and
social integration.
While both academic and social integration are constituents of a successful ‘university
experience’ as Tinto argues, academic achievement remains a pre-condition of successful
progression through a baccalaureate program. And adequate academic preparation (signalled
by HSGPA) is an essential antecedent. Attempts to model persistence and eventual degree
completion from student surveys or school records consistently demonstrate the critical role
played by high school grade point average (HSGPA). The K-12 experience develops essential
skills, values, and dispositions that bear on educational performance and, unlike scores
obtained from objectively administered test instruments, many of these are reflected in HSGPA
measures (Jackson & Kurlaendar, 2014; Kelly, 2008).
Selective admissions practices attempt to align students' HSGPA's with an institutions' position
in the status hierarchy. Such academic 'matching' is associated with degree completion -- at
least in systems with obvious hierarchies (Dillon & Smith, 2015). Matching thus attends not only
to individual achievement differences among students but also to institutional differences in
the resources institutions possess and can deploy to affect the quality of students’ educational
2
experiences -- including financial support, faculty research activity, class size, support services,
recreational facilities, etc. (Finnie & Usher, 2005).
Such structural differences underlie much of the competition for access. However, students
choose universities for a variety of reasons with the result that academic mismatches
frequently occur. Some students with high HSGPA’s enroll in less selective universities
(undermatch) and some with relatively low HSGPA’s gain access to highly selective universities
(overmatch). Research on matching has emphasized the undermatch condition, reflecting a
greater concern with ‘talent loss’. However, recent research suggests matching attempts can
have unanticipated effects on degree completion. An important exception is found in the
placement of underprepared students. Those with relatively low HSGPA's fare best not when
they are admitted to an accessible program but to one that is highly selective – that is, when
they are over-matched (Cook, 2021; Kelly, Howell & Sattin-Bajaj, 2016).
2. The ‘Underprepared’ Student
In the context of rising aspirations for a university education, Davies (2005) suggested
baccalaureate program expansion that enrolls less academically prepared students will lead to
lower degree completion rates. This position has been more extensively debated in the US
where Rosenbaum (2001) has argued that the ‘college for all ethos’ does a disservice to
students who may be more successful in a vocational program. Others view multiple pathways
and opportunities to a degree as an issue of equity. Greater access in many ways represents an
extension of the ‘contest’ model of school organization that characterizes North American K-12
schooling (Turner, 1960). In contrast to some European systems that track students at a
relatively early age into either vocational or academic tracks, the contest approach emphasizes
planning options and flexibility that can extend to and encourage lifelong learning (Andres &
Pullman, 2018).
These opportunities nevertheless narrow at the transition to PSE where selective admissions
policies (in stratified systems) perform a sorting function. Students with lower HSGPA’s tend to
cluster in the college pathway, although they may do so for reasons other than non-competitive
HSGPAs. They may not be fully committed to pursuing a degree and wish to first explore the
academic option at a local college. They may also be attracted to a particular field of study that
is offered only at a college.
Foe those who are not academically prepared, developmental / remedial programs are
widespread and growing at US community colleges and less selective universities (Jaggers &
Bickerstaff, 2018). Whether colleges (and universities) in Canada perceive the need for or
possess the resources to remediate underprepared students on this scale is not obvious. At
present, most developmental programming is reserved for language training or for those not
presently eligible for university entry (Grayson, et al, 2019).
3. Canadian research on transitions: degree completion
3
Much of the recent research on PSE transitions in Canada is based on the Youth in Transition
Survey or YITS. Finnie et al (2008) used YITS data to generate several studies of family and
school factors that predict university admissions and completion. These studies examined the
social structures, student characteristics, and institutional features associated with higher
education attainment. Significant links in all analyses were found between degree completion
and high school grades (Finnie & Qui, 2008; Childs et al, 2017). Other studies have used
administrative and survey data to predict student university completion. Dooley et al (2012)
found SES and gender together with high school grades predicted degree completion. A
longitudinal study by Andres (2015) has traced students' educational transitions and outcomes
within a larger analysis of life course events, again identifying early school achievement and
engagement with PSE degree completion. More recent work on degree completion has been
reported by (Brown, Davies & Chakraborty, 2019) who specifically studied links between
graduation from the University of Toronto and early school achievement in a cohort of Toronto
high school students.
4. Summary
Selective admissions and student-institution matching are assumed to support a successful
university experience and degree completion rates. However, where access to more highly
valued and selective universities improves the likelihood of obtaining a degree irrespective of
academic preparation, it raises policy issues of efficiency and equity in systems which are
presumed to offer alternative but equally effective pathways to graduation. The following
analysis addresses these concerns by examining degree completion in relation to measures of
high school academic preparation undertaken by students enrolled in different baccalaureate
pathways -- with particular attention paid students with low HSGPA scores. Consistent with
current findings on matching effects (Cook, 2021), one would expect to find degree completion
differences for low HSGPA students across pathway choices, favouring those who enrolled in a
more selective university.
Empirical Example
1. Context
In 1962, the President of UBC, John B. MacDonald, recommended changes to the postsecondary system in British Columbia. Influenced by the structure of the California state postsecondary system, the MacDonald report proposed, in addition to the existing 4-year
universities, establishment of two-year community colleges offering a combination of technical
and career programs, along with academic courses transferrable to the university curriculum.
The colleges would also train students for specific employment with programs ranging in
duration from a few weeks to two or more years; vocational schools would offer short, applied
programs of a year or less; and adult basic education would prepare those without high school
graduation for other post-secondary programs or employment (Dennison, 2006). In the 1990s,
the province expanded the PSE sector by increasing capacity in existing universities and by
assigning degree granting status to several community colleges that were then labeled
“university-colleges” (Dennison 2006). In 2008, changes to the Provincial University Act
4
conferred full university status on these institutions but with a mandate to focus on teaching
rather than research (Cowin, 2018). Baccalaureate programs in BC now are offered at 6
research intensive universities, 8 teaching universities, and 13 colleges and technical institutes.
Currently, the BC university system distinguishes three types or categories of universities:
research intensive (RIU), teaching intensive (TIU), and college transfer (CT) baccalaureate
programs (Fisher et al, 2014). Each defines a possible pathway to a degree, including the college
option which utilizes well articulated credit transfer agreements. However, RIU’s tend to be
larger, better resourced, and have greater prestige than either the TIUs or CT programs, as
reported in Maclean’s Magazine. While Canadian universities are less selective and hierarchical
than US universities, they nevertheless actively promote their programs to enhance
enrolments, especially among high school graduates. Promotional activities are designed to
build institutional reputation and universities vie for position in rankings produced by public
media. In Canada, the annual university ratings issue of Maclean's Magazine is widely consulted
by prospective students (and parents) as they calculate which institution offers the highest
quality education as well as the greatest leverage in the labour market (Kong & Veall, 2005).
Moderating somewhat the influence of 'prestige hierarchies' on prospective students' planning
for PSE are the transfer arrangements that facilitate movement between different institutions.
BC has articulated transfer protocols that formalize requirements for vertical and lateral
transfers between universities and between community college and university programs, thus
offering multiple avenues to preferred programs and institutions (Cowin, 2018). Structural
distinctions nevertheless exist across the system and this stratification is associated not only
with competitive entry but also degree completion differences (Heslop, 2015).
2. Purpose
To explore degree completion in the BC system a ‘matching’ frame is used to examine the
relationship between HSGPA and students’ institutional pathway (RIU, TIU or CT) at university
entry. While the analysis estimates degree completion across all levels of HSGPA the focus is on
the outcome for underprepared students – defined as those in the lowest HSGPA quartile (Q1)
of students enrolled in a baccalaureate program. I ask the specific question: Does access to an
RIU confer any advantage on students with HSGPA’s in the bottom quartile of the university
enrolment in BC’s PSE system?
3. Data and Sample
The data were obtained from BC Ministry of Education and Student Transitions Project
administrative archives. An aggregated file was generated for all students born in 1990 who
graduated from school in the British Columbia K-12 system and who subsequently enrolled in a
baccalaureate program. The sample was constrained to include those who enrolled within two
years of the 2007-08 modal high school graduating year. Data on PSE completion status were
collected until 2016. This completion timeline conforms to the typical 5-6-year trajectory for
university graduates (Heslop, 2015).
5
4. Analysis
The primary relationship is between degree completion and the intersection of students`
HSGPA and their chosen PSE pathway (RIU, TIU and CT). Table 1 shows the HSGPA-pathway
pattern.
Table 1. HSGPA distributions by PSE pathway: Row Percentages (n=16953)
Pathway
HSGPA Quartiles
1-24
25-49
50-74
RIU
12
23
31
TIU
43
27
19
CT
45
29
17
75-99
32
12
10
The interaction between these variables reveals the extent to which different levels of HSGPA
operate in a particular pathway to promote (or constrain) degree completion. In modelling
degree completion, I adjust the regression results with several controls. The first of these relate
to students' characteristics: the basic sociodemographic indicators of SES, gender, and
ethnicity, including indigenous status. The other set of controls is directly related to students'
high school academic performance and includes their location (rural-urban), ESL training, the
grade at K-12 entry, and any delay in PSE entry. The last control is the field of study (STEM)
choices made by students at university entry.
5. Results
Figure 1 shows the probabilities of degree completion for each HSGPA group across pathway
choices. These results demonstrate the advantage of RIU attendance across all HSGPA levels.
RIU enrolment particularly benefits low HSGPA students. Degree completion probabilities for
Q1 are greater than Q1 and Q2 for both TIU and CT students; and even exceed Q3 students
enrolled the CT pathway.
6
Figure 1. Probability of degree completion: HSGPA by Pathway
Expansion of university programs in BC has created opportunities for many more high school
graduates. The accompanying differentiation of baccalaureate pathways has, however, resulted
in institutional differences in resources that appear to affect the likelihood of reaching the goal
of degree completion for students who vary in their academic preparedness. In this exercise,
student characteristics and other contextual factors were controlled to highlight the interaction
between students HSGPA and their PSE pathway. This approach is consistent with previous
research on degree completion in relation to the concept of 'matching' which argues that
aligning students' ability level (HSGPA) with an institution’s position within a PSE status
hierarchy promotes persistence and completion. Within this framework, the current analysis
suggests the RIU pathway choice is of particular benefit to low (Q1) HSGPA students. Cook
(2021) suggests this anomalous result for 'overmatched' students may indicate the value of
resource rich learning environments as well as the benefits of positive student peer effects
resulting from selective admissions.
6. Limitation
This example of institutional matching on HSGPA illustrates the value of an interactive approach
to predicting degree completion – i.e.: one that considers student characteristics, institutional
features, and their intersections, Nevertheless, it is a limited example of the importance of
person-institution ‘fit’. Several non-academic factors are also related to fit, and enter into the
decision to apply, enroll, and persist in a degree program (Kelly, Howell & Satin-Bajaj, 2016).
7
While recognized as relevant, these factors (e.g. location) were employed as statistical controls
for the purposes of this exercise.
The analysis used BC as a case study to model the degree completion outcomes for students
who were ‘underprepared’ for university study. While results may be applied to that province,
other jurisdictions have different structures, typically dual systems that distinguish separate
pathways to vocational or academic study – i.e.: college or university.
Conclusion
This paper was motivated by the EDST 536 readings on higher education systems and the
effects of structural change on students’ university experience and outcomes. Other changes
essential to improving equity in Canadian PSE are framed by equity-diversity-inclusion or EDI
program goals. These have drawn attention to the need for change documented in the antiracism, decolonization, indigenization, and disabilities literature (Pidgeon, 2008).
However, driven by economic as well as social justice imperatives, system expansion includes
access goals aimed not only at redress or proportionality but also at the more general goal of
‘wider participation’ (Bolivar et al, 2022). This extends higher education opportunities to a
broader base comprising youth who may aspire to a university education but have not been
optimally engaged in learning. The move to broad-based or contextualized admissions in some
BC universities (Arida, 2013) is consistent with the aim of wider participation but may be
complicated by effects of institutional differentiation that accompany system expansion.
References
Andres, L. & Pullman, A. (2018). Vertically segregated higher education and the life course:
Comparing patterns over 28 years. In M. Shah, J. McKay (eds.), Achieving Equity and
Quality in Higher Education, Palgrave Studies in Excellence and Equity in Global
Education. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Arida, A. (2013). In pursuit of the ‘right’ student: A case study in assessing the effectiveness of
enrollment management in shaping a first-year class. Unpublished Master’s Thesis,
Department of Educational Studies, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC.
Bolivar, V., Bannerjee, P. Gorard, S. & Powell, M. (2022). Reconceptualising fair access to highly
academically selective universities. Higher Education, 84, 85–100
Brown, R., Davies, S. & Chakraborty, N. (2019). The University of Toronto-Toronto District School
Board cohort analysis. Toronto: TDSB.
Cook, A. (2021). Margins that matter: Exploring the association between academic match and
bachelor's degree completion over time. Research in Higher Education. Doi.
10.1007/s11162-021-09664-6
Cote, J. & Allahar, A. (2007). Ivory tower blues: A university system in crisis. Toronto: University
of Toronto Press.
Cowin, R. (2018). Postsecondary education in British Columbia: Public policy and structural
developments, 1960-2015. Vancouver: UBC Press.
8
Davies, S. (2005). A revolution of expectations? Three key trends in the SAEP data. In R. Sweet &
P. Anisef (Eds.), Preparing for post-secondary education: New roles for governments and
families (pp. 149-165). Montreal, QC: McGill-Queens University Press.
Dennison, J. (2006). From community college to university: A personal commentary on the
evolution of an institution. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, 36(2) 107-124
Dillon, E. & Smith, J. (2015). The consequences of academic match between students and
colleges. Discussion Paper No. 9080. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA).
Dooley, M., Payne, A., & Robb, L. (2012). Persistence and academic success in university.
Canadian Public Policy, 38(3), 315-339.
Durkheim, E. (1951). Suicide. Glencoe, IL: The Free Press
Finnie, R. Mueller, A. Sweetman, & A. Usher (2008), Who goes? Who stays? What matters?
Accessing and persisting in post-secondary education in Canada. Montreal: McGillQueen’s University Press.
Finnie, R., & Qiu, H. (2008). Is the glass (or classroom) half empty or nearly full? New evidence
on persistence in post-secondary education in Canada. In R. Finnie, R. Mueller, A.
Sweetman, & A. Usher (Eds.), Who goes? Who stays? What matters? Accessing and
persisting in post-secondary education in Canada (pp. 179-208). Montreal: McGillQueen’s University Press.
Finnie, R. & Martinello, F. (2010). “I lost my scholarship”: Changes in grades from high school to
first year university. In R. Finnie, M. Frenette, R. Mueller & A. Sweetman (Eds.) Pursuing
higher education in Canada, (pp 15-42). Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
Finnie, R. & Usher, A. (2005). Measuring the quality of post-secondary education: Concepts,
current practices and a strategic plan. Ottawa: Canadian Policy Research Networks.
Grayson, P., Cote, J., Chen, L. & Roberts, S. (2019). Academic skill deficiencies in four Ontario
universities. York Report. Toronto: York University. Downloaded:
https://skillsforuniversitysuccess.info.yorku.ca/files/2019/04/04-26-2019AcademicSkills.pdf
Heslop, J. (2015). B.C. Bachelor degree completers of 2013/2014: A longitudinal research study
from the Student Transitions Project. Victoria, BC: Ministry of Advanced Education, Skills
and Training. Retrieved January 2019, from: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/
education/post-secondary-education/data-research/stp/bach_completers_of_20132014_report_v3_2015-10-07.pdf
Jackson & Kurlaendar, (2013). College readiness and college completion at broad access fouryear institutions. American Behavioral Scientist, 58(8), 947-971.
Jaggers, S. & Bickerstaff, S. (2018). Developmental education: The evolution of research and
reform. In M. Paulsen (ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and research, 33.
New York: Springer.
Kelly, S. (2008). What types of student effort are rewarded with high marks? Sociology of
Education, 81, 32-52.
Kelly, A., Howell, J. & Sattin-Baja, C. (2016). Matching students to opportunity: Expanding
college choice, access, and quality. Cambridge: Harvard Education Press.
Kong, Q. & Veall, M. (2005). Does the Macleans rankings matter? Canadian Public Policy, 31(3),
231-242.
9
Kuh, G. (2008). High-impact educational practices: What they are, who has access to them, and
why they matter. Washington, DC: Association of American Colleges and Universities.
Light, A. & Strayer, W. (2000). Determinants of college completion: School quality or student
ability? Journal of Human Resources, 35(2), 299-332.
Meguizo, T. (2011). A review of the theories developed to describe the process of college
persistence and attainment. In J.C. Smart, M.B. Paulsen (eds.), Higher education:
Handbook of theory and research. (395-424). New York: Springer.
Oreopoulos, P. (2021). What limits college success? A review and further analysis of Holzer and
Baum's 'Making College Work'. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(2), 546-573.
Pidgeon, M. (2008). Pushing against the margins: Indigenous theorizing of ‘success’ and
retention in higher education. Journal of College Student Retention: Research, theory &
Practice, 10(3), 339-360.
Pizarro-Milian, R. (2017). What’s for sale at Canadian universities? A mixed methods analysis of
promotional strategies. Higher Education Quarterly, 71(1), 53-74.
Rosenbaum J. (2001). Beyond college for all: Career paths for the forgotten half. New York:
Russell Sage Foundation.
Spady, W. (1971). Dropouts from higher education: Toward an empirical model. Interchange, 2, 38–
62.
Stack, M. (2021). Global university rankings and the politics of knowledge. Toronto: University
of Toronto Press.
Tinto, V. (1975). Dropout from higher education: A theoretical synthesis of recent research.
Review of Educational Research, 45(1), 89–125.
Tinto, V. (2017). Through the eyes of students. Journal of college student retention: Research,
theory and practice, 19(3), 254-269.
Van Gennep, A. (1960). The rites of passage. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Appendix
Table 2. Regional Comparison of Enrolments, Pathways and Degree Completion
Institution at Entry by Region and Year
Institutional Pathway
% Degree
Established
Completion
RIU
VANCOUVER
UBCV
SFU
Capilano
Emily Carr
Kwantlen
Fraser Valley
Douglas
Langara
BCIT
1915
1965
1968
1925
1981
1974
1970
1994
1964
TIU
CT
3625
3099
362
141
2003
662
589
91
38
Any TIU or RIU
82
71
45
87
36
54
39
42
92
10
ISLAND
UVic
Vancouver Island
Camosun
North Island
1963
1969
1971
1975
1921
INTERIOR
UBCO
TRU
Okanagan
Selkirk
2005
1970
1963
1966
828
1990
1969
1975
1975
336
NORTH
UNBC
New Caledonia
Northern Lights
CMC (NWCC)
SUBTOTAL
TOTAL
279
273
72
41
44
28
591
193
69
40
31
34
757
968
9809
4893
17269
334
63
116
2567
60
25
16
26
Further Reading: Pidgeon’s article:
Issues in Indigenous PSE access and completion in the BC North: additional geographic and
economic thoughts
Pidgeon (2008) asserts that although indigenous participation in higher education is steadily
growing, degree completion has mostly been in male-dominated trade professions. She also
points out that program choice amongst aboriginal students in the US and Canada favour
college programs which offer technical training, rather than academic programs of universities.
Pidgeon explains that low PSE enrollment and persistence rates of indigenous peoples are
“indicators” that “institutions are not meeting the social, cultural, or economic needs of
aboriginal people (Pidgeon, 2008)”. In response to Pidgeon’s remarks, one wonders whether
the attention to Canadian indigenous education programming in recent years might increase
engagement with PSE students in northern BC.
Compared to BC’s Metro Vancouver and Victoria regions in the provincial southwest, there are
much lower levels of graduation for students attending PSE education institutions in BC’s
provincial north. PSE dropout rates of this region are by far the highest in the province. In 2016,
the BC north’s one RIU -- University of Northern BC in Prince George, had a degree-completion
rate of 60%, while the colleges of Northern Lights and New Caledonia reported just 25% and
16% graduation rates respectively (BCME, 2016). The BC north’s low PSE degree completion
rates stand in stark contrast to those of Metro Vancouver’s UBC: 82%, Langara College: 42%,
and the trades/ technical institution BCIT, at 92%. The BC north’s low PSE graduation rates
11
mirror similarly low rates found in the colleges which serve the more sparsely populated smalltowns rural areas of northern Ontario, where individuals experience difficulties accessing
various types of PSE (Zarifa et al, 2017).
Zarifa et al (2017) report that in Canada “many highly ranked, prestigious universities and
colleges (with greater arrays of fields) tend to be clustered in large, urban centers, and in the
southernmost parts of Canadian provinces, but it is not clear whether these differences impact
PSE outcomes.” One can speculate that a lack of program choice in northern BC could be one
explanation for why PSE dropout rates are so high there. Low degree completion rates may also
be related to declining populations in BC’s north due to financial issues such as little local
economic development / diversity, a lack of access to adequate medical services, food and
consumer choice, and cold weather. In BC’s sparsely populated northern PSE catchment, a
much larger percentage of the population is indigenous than Canada’s national average.
Characterized by a sub-artic climate, and starting at the geographical latitude of 53.89, the BC
north has a population density about 100 times smaller than the province’s three main Metro
regions of its south -- Vancouver, Victoria, and Kelowna. In southern BC, several small towns are
currently (2022) experiencing rapid population growth, offering cheaper housing and closer
proximity to nature than BC’s main metro regions, yet with just enough access to them. In
contrast, most small towns and villages in northern BC exist many hours away from BCs main
urban centres, and are experiencing significant population decline (Luyumes, 2021). Compared
to the population of Canada, which has an indigenous population of 4.9%, northern BC counts a
far greater percentage of its overall population as First Nations, Metis, and Inuit. In the south of
BC, Metro Vancouver’s (population approx. 2.6M in 2022) indigenous population is only 2.2%.
Northern BC’s largest city (and home to UNBC) Prince George (population approx. 90,000 in
2017), counts 25% of its citizens as indigenous (Corstanje, 2022; Statistics Canada, 2016), while
in the far northeast of the province, the small town of Ft. Nelson (population 3,336) counts 36%
of its people (1200) as aboriginal (Wikipedia, 2022).
Statistics Canada reports that in 2011 only about one-half (48.4%) of Aboriginal people aged 1865 had a postsecondary qualification: 14.4% had a trades certificate, 20.6% a college diploma,
3.5% a university certificate or diploma below the bachelor level, 9.8 % had an undergraduate
degree. As of 2016, the percentage of indigenous university graduates with a baccalaureate
degree was almost three times lower than the percentage of non-indigenous students (22.4%)
aged 18-65 who had obtained one (Arriagada, 2016).
Not only is the aboriginal PSE student graduation rate significantly lower than non-aboriginals in
BC’s north (BCME, 2016), the region’s population is shrinking, and unlike the world’s other main
Nordic countries -- Sweden, Finland, Norway, China, and Russia -- northern Canada’s insufficient
transportation and communications infrastructure, and general lack / collapse of economic
development is emblematic of a country that’s southern and northern regions are not well
integrated. The lack of raw materials manufacturing by Canadian companies in Canada’s
northern regions reflects the country’s national decline as a maker of value-added products. In
12
the 1950s the Canadian manufacturing sector accounted for 30% of the country’s GDP, whereas
today it accounts for only 10% (Gingrich & Rowlinson, 2020).
Industrial production has been stagnant in Canada for two decades, and the global Covid-19
pandemic could be seen as the country’s wake-up call to invest in strengthening its domestic
manufacturing sector to produce what it needs. To help build up this economically
underdeveloped region, Higginbotham, in an article by Siekierska (2018), recommends the
Canadian government commit to long-term funding of large-scale northern infrastructure
projects in close co-ordination with Indigenous and territorial governments. Properly managed,
Canadian government and indigenous run resource extraction and manufacturing enterprises
could bring long-term employment and economic prosperity to BC’s north, while minimizing
environmental impacts (Gingrich & Rowlinson, 2020).
The pandemic has amplified deep inequalities in the labour market along racial, gender, and
socio-economic lines. Gingrich & Rowlinson (2021) suggest “Canada needs concerted training
and apprenticeship policies that incorporate equity (including hiring and pay equity) and
recognition of labour rights . . . and investment decisions at various levels of government.
Additionally, the country must invest in communities hit hard by de-industrialization and mine
closures.” Developing new transportation, manufacturing, and communications strategies for
BC’s north should include clear equity goals for its inhabitants. Perhaps by emulating the
national economic and education strategies of the Scandinavian countries, and forming joint
ventures with indigenous groups, Canada can create and sustain a resilient economic and
security infrastructure in its resource-rich north.
In alignment with the federal government’s long-range goals of strengthening Canada’s Artic
sovereignty, new economic investments and the move towards indigenous self-determination
could create opportunities to revitalize PSE education and vocational training for working
people who call BC’s northern region their home.
Addendum References
Arriagada, P. (2016). The achievements, experiences and labour market outcomes of First
Nations, Métis and Inuit women with bachelor’s degrees or higher. Release date:
October 20, 2021. Available: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006x/2021001/article/00009-eng.htm
Corstanje, D. (2022). Prince George: Demographics. Available: https://townfolio.co/bc/princegeorge-colored/demographics
Gingrich, M., & Rowlinson, M. (2020). Revitalizing Canada’s manufacturing economy for a postcovid world. Available: https://ppforum.ca/publications/revitalizing-canadasmanufacturing-economy-for-a-post-covid-world/
Luyumes, G. (2022). Census 2021: Population 'stagnant' in parts of northern B.C. Published:
February 10, 2022. Available: https://vancouversun.com/news/census-2021-populationstagnant-in-parts-of-northern-b-c
13
Macrotrends (2022). Vancouver, Canada Metro Area Population 1950-2022. Available:
https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/20404/vancouver/population
Pidgeon, M. (2008). Pushing against the margins: Indigenous theorizing of ‘success’ and
retention in higher education. Journal of College Student Retention: Research, theory &
Practice, 10(3), 339-360.
Siekierska (2018). Exposed in the north: Canada falls behind in developing the Arctic. Published:
March 16, 2018. Available: https://financialpost.com/transportation/finland-feature
Statistics Canada (2016). Focus on Geography Series, 2016 Census. Available:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-PREng.cfm?TOPIC=9&LANG=Eng&GK=PR&GC=59
Statistics Canada (2016). Census Profile, 2016 Census: Prince George [Census agglomeration],
British Columbia and British Columbia [Province]. Available:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dppd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CMACA&Code1=970&Geo2=PR&Code2=59&D
ata=Count&SearchText=prince%20george&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=Abori
ginal%20peoples&TABID=1
Wikipedia (2022). Fort Nelson, British Columbia. Available:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Nelson,_British_Columbia
Zarifa, D., Hango, D. & Pizzaro Milian, R. (2017). Proximity, prosperity, and participation:
Examining access to postsecondary education among youth in Canada’s provincial north.
Rural Sociology 83(2), 2018, pp. 270–314
14