Download Jan-13-Cox-Automotive-2022-Industry-Insights-Webcast-Presentation

WELCOME!
January 13, 2022
AGENDA
Time Check: 75 Minutes
Intro & Cox Automotive
Mark Schirmer, Director, Public Relations
The Economy
Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist
Market Performance: New Vehicles
Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist
Market Performance: Used Vehicles
Kayla Reynolds, Economic and Industry Insights Manager
2022 Outlook & Playlist
Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist and Resident DJ
Q&A
Speakers joined by Michelle Krebs, Executive Analyst
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2
OUR PURPOSE
Empower clients to thrive in a
rapidly changing marketplace
OUR VISION
Transform the way the
world buys, sells, owns
and uses vehicles
THE ECONOMY
JONATHAN SMOKE
CHIEF ECONOMIST
@smokeoncars
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STATE OF THE INDUSTRY: Daily New Cases Decrease, Back-to-Normal Index Stalls
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6
THE ECONOMY: Growth Strong and Most Factors Green
Overall Economy
Employment
Conditions
Buyer Confidence
Wages
Buyer Ability
Real
GDP Growth
+6.7%
(Q2 ’21)
+2.3%
(Q3 ’21)
+6.7%
(Q4 ’21 F)
U3 Unemployment
Rate
6.7%
(Dec ’20)
4.2%
(Nov ’21)
3.9%
(Dec ’21)
UofM Consumer
Sentiment
80.7
(Dec ’20)
70.6
(Dec ’21)
Earnings
Growth
5.5%
(Dec ’20)
4.7%
(Dec ’21)
Disposable
Income Y/Y
4.4%
(Nov ’20)
5.8%
(Nov ’21)
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7
THE ECONOMY: Credit and Rates Have Been Very Favorable
Auto Finance
FRBNY
$168 billion
(Q3 ’20)
$199 billion
(Q3 ’21)
Interest Rates
Effective Fed
Funds Rate
0.09%
(Dec ’20)
0.08%
(Dec ’21)
Average New Auto
Loan Rate
4.29%
(Dec ’20)
4.11%
(Dec ’21)
Average Retail
Unleaded
Gasoline Price
$2.25
(Dec ’20)
$3.29
(Dec ’21)
Borrowing Costs
Mobility Costs
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8
Dealer Sentiment Index
How would you describe the current market for
vehicles in the areas where you operate?
FOURTH QUARTER 2021
Strong
77
68
54
48
46
55
45
42
54
46
43
55
49
47
56
51
50
59
51
48
51
50
48
47
44
42
54
49
48
56
48
46
51
47
46
56
53
55
49
47
61
61
49
46
49
45
67
63
73
70
62
59
60
56
30
20
17
Weak
Q2 17
Q3 17
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Overall
Q2 19
Q3 19
Franchised
Q4 19 Q1 20
Q2 20
Q3 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q4 21
Independent
Note: Scale 1 - 100
Dealer Sentiment Index Q4 2021
9
Dealer Sentiment Index
What do you expect the market for vehicles in your
area to look like 3 months from now?
FOURTH QUARTER 2021
Strong
73
70
74
69
64
55
52
57
52
51
57
53
52
56
52
61
57
55
63
63
62
54
49
47
66
63
61
62
55
52
57
51
49
68
57
54
51
51
45
40
60
50
46
58
59
56
63
59
71
69
60
56
60
57
48
44
Weak
Q2 17
Q3 17
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Overall
Q2 19
Q3 19
Franchised
Q4 19 Q1 20
Q2 20
Q3 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q4 21
Independent
Note: Scale 1 - 100
Dealer Sentiment Index Q4 2021
10
Dealer Sentiment Index
Inventory/Profits
Q4: How would you describe your profits over the past 3 months?
Q8: How would you describe the current new-vehicle inventory levels?
FOURTH QUARTER 2021
Growing
Strong
82
68
67
62
48
50
49
61
49
51
57
49
60
59
64
51
49
66
61
52
59
51
56
51
43
Q2 17
Q3 17
Q4 17
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
63
41
Q2 19
Q3 19
New Vehicle Inventory
Q4 19 Q1 20
Q2 20
81
70
48
25
86
44
29
Q3 20
Q4 20
Q1 21
13
13
14
Q2 21
Q3 21
Q4 21
Declining
Weak
Franchised Profits
Note: Scale 1 - 100
Dealer Sentiment Index Q4 2021
11
MARKET PERFORMANCE: NEW VEHICLES
CHARLIE CHESBROUGH
SENIOR ECONOMIST
@Charlie_Ches
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DECEMBER SALES: Uptick In Volume Suggest Worst Likely Over
Averaging just over 1 million sales each month since August, but December had relatively large gains for domestic Truck/SUV sales
Monthly Light Vehicle Sales SAAR (millions)
SAAR In
Millions
Volume in
Mllions
20
Q4-2019
16.9
4.3
18
Q4-2020
16.2
4.2
Q3-2021
13.3
3.4
Q4-2021
12.8
3.2
vs Q4-2019
-24.3%
-23.6%
vs Q4-2020
-21.0%
-22.0%
vs Q3-2021
-4.1%
-4.1%
Dec-19
16.9
1.5
Dec-20
16.3
1.6
Nov-21
12.9
1.0
Dec-21
12.4
1.2
vs Dec-19
-26.3%
-21.1%
vs Dec-20
-23.8%
-25.6%
vs Nov-21
-3.6%
19.0%
16
14
12.4
12
10
8
6
4
2
Pass Car
Lt Truck
Total Light
Oct-2021
Jul-2021
Apr-2021
Jan-2021
Oct-2020
Jul-2020
Apr-2020
Jan-2020
Oct-2019
Jul-2019
Apr-2019
Jan-2019
0
Source: Edit
Cox Automotive,
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14
FINAL 2021 SALES VOLUME: 14.9 Million Finish After A Strong H1 and Weak H2
Market up over 3% from last year, but still 12% below 2019’s 17.0 million
Light Vehicle Sales History
18
SALES VOLUME (millions)
Pass Car
Light
Trucks
Total
17
Car Share
16
CY2019
4.7
12.2
17.0
27.8%
15
CY2020
3.4
11.1
14.5
23.5%
14
CY2021
3.3
11.6
14.9
22.4%
13
2021 v 2019
-29.2%
-5.3%
-12.0%
-5.5%
We
Are
Here
12
11
-1.8%
4.7%
3.1%
-1.1%
10
9
8
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2021 v 2020
Source: Edit
Cox Automotive,
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15
MARKET OUTLOOK: Demand Is There If Supply Can Be Too
How quickly the supply chain can recover will drive the market – should ramp up through the year
Monthly New Light Vehicle Sales (thousands)
1,800
Supply/Sales grows from current level at:
1,600
4% pace = 16.4 million
3% pace = 15.3 million
2% pace = 14.4 million
1% pace = 13.5 million
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
1% Path
2% Path
3% Path
4% Path
Oct-2022
Jul-2022
Apr-2022
Jan-2022
Oct-2021
Jul-2021
Apr-2021
Jan-2021
Oct-2020
Jul-2020
Apr-2020
Jan-2020
600
Cox Automotive 2022 Outlook:
16.0 million sales
History
Source: Cox Automotive
Estimates,
BEAstyles
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16
CHANGING CHANNELS: Covid Causing Massive Disruption
Declines in both Lease and Fleet share are low and present opportunities for OEMs – if retail purchasers pull back there are levers to pull
Retail Lease Share of Retail
Fleet Share of Total Vehicle Sales
34%
30%
32%
25%
30%
20%
28%
15%
26%
10%
24%
5%
22%
2021
2020
2019
2021
2020
Source: Cox Automotive analysis
of IHS
registrations
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Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0%
Jan
20%
2019
17
MARKET SHARE: Asian/EU Brands Gained From American Brands – At First
OEMs hit early are now recovering share – 2022 likely to be a volatile year again as pace of stock rebuild will vary
Asian Brands
European Brands
60%
American 3 Brands (no Tesla)
14%
60%
12%
50%
50%
10%
40%
40%
8%
30%
30%
6%
20%
20%
4%
10%
2%
2021
2020
2019
2021
2020
2019
2021
Source: Cox Automotive,
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2020
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0%
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0%
Jan
0%
Jan
10%
2019
18
OEM PERFORMANCE: Toyota Is The New Champ, Hyundai Gained Most Share
GM, Ford, Stellantis combined lose nearly 5% share in 2021 – Tesla had a huge year, but more competition in 2022
OEM
Toyota
Q4 2021
474,379
2021 vs 2019
-21.5%
2021 vs 2020
-28.2%
CY2021
2,332,263
2021 vs 2019
-2.1%
2021 vs 2020
10.4%
Share2021
15.5%
Share2020
14.5%
Difference
1.0%
GM
Ford
436,358
504,138
-40.4%
-15.8%
-43.1%
-6.4%
2,202,577
1,891,753
-23.5%
-21.4%
-13.1%
-7.0%
14.6%
12.6%
17.4%
14.0%
-2.8%
-1.4%
Stellantis
Hyundai
411,513
313,638
-24.1%
-7.9%
-17.6%
-8.2%
1,777,393
1,489,118
-19.3%
12.4%
-2.4%
21.6%
11.8%
9.9%
12.5%
8.4%
-0.7%
1.5%
Honda
Nissan-Mitsu
287,206
219,844
-28.5%
-32.7%
-21.5%
-14.8%
1,466,630
1,079,676
-8.8%
-26.4%
8.9%
9.4%
9.7%
7.2%
9.2%
6.8%
0.5%
0.4%
Volkswagen
130,860
-21.8%
-25.0%
636,032
-2.0%
11.6%
4.2%
3.9%
0.3%
Subaru
BMW
121,008
100,891
-30.8%
0.2%
-31.0%
-6.0%
583,810
366,574
-16.6%
1.6%
-4.6%
19.5%
3.9%
2.4%
4.2%
2.1%
-0.3%
0.3%
Tesla
Mazda
115,248
59,543
114.4%
-15.4%
69.0%
-21.4%
352,471
332,756
83.3%
19.5%
71.4%
19.2%
2.3%
2.2%
1.4%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
Daimler
Volvo-Geely
79,067
28,236
-24.5%
-8.3%
-17.0%
-22.7%
332,610
124,692
-7.2%
15.4%
2.1%
13.2%
2.2%
0.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.0%
0.1%
Tata
Rivian
17,101
583
-53.4%
-
-43.7%
-
92,380
584
-26.6%
-
-5.2%
-
0.6%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.1%
0.0%
Lucid
Nation
577
3,300,190
-23.0%
-21.3%
577
15,061,896
-11.6%
3.4%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Source: Cox Automotive,
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19
TOP SELLING VEHICLES: F-Series Wins Again, But Ram Making Gains
Toyota wins other categories, but while Camry sales gained in 2022, RAV4 lost its big lead
Truck Race
CY 2021
Lead
CY 2020
Lead
Ford F-Series
726,004
Ram Pickup
569,388
156,616
563,676
223,746
1.0%
Chevrolet Silverado
519,774
206,230
586,675
200,747
-11.4%
CY 2021
Lead
CY 2020
Lead
Y/Y Change
SUV Race
787,422
Y/Y Change
-7.8%
Toyota RAV4
407,739
Honda CR-V
361,271
46,468
333,502
96,885
8.3%
Nissan Rogue
285,602
122,137
227,935
202,452
25.3%
CY 2021
Lead
CY 2020
Lead
Y/Y Change
Car Race
430,387
-5.3%
Toyota Camry
313,795
294,348
6.6%
Honda Civic
263,787
50,008
261,225
33,123
1.0%
Toyota Corolla
229,785
84,010
217,712
76,636
5.5%
Source: Cox Automotive,
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20
NEW VEHICLE INVENTORY: Slowly Starting To Show Some Improvement
Supply situation remains bad – 1.8 million fewer vehicles than 2020, and over 2.5 million lower than 2019
Available Supply weekly
Days of Supply weekly
200
4,500,000
180
4,000,000
160
3,500,000
140
3,000,000
120
2,500,000
-62%
2,000,000
80
1,500,000
60
1,000,000
-49%
40
500,000
0
100
20
2021
2020
2019
2021
2020
2019
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Source: Cox Automotive,
VMAtext
Datastyles
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Dec
21
BRAND INVENTORY: Toyota Wins Sales Title With Tightest Supplies
Toyota and Honda very tight while Stellantis in a much different position
Days of Supply
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source: Cox Automotive,
VMAtext
Datastyles
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Alfa Romeo
Dodge
Jeep
Chrysler
Ram
Audi
Lincoln
Volvo
Hyundai
INFINITI
Ford
GMC
Chevrolet
Buick
MINI
Nissan
NATION
Cadillac
Genesis
Volkswagen
Mitsubishi
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Subaru
Land Rover
Mazda
Honda
Acura
Kia
Porsche
Toyota
Lexus
0
22
PRICE CATEGORY INVENTORY: Most Affordable = Least Available
Demand for lower priced vehicles remains robust but not many products to choose from – not now and likely not ever
Days of Supply
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
<$20K
$20K-$30K
$30K-$40K
$40K-$50K
NATION
$50K-$60K
$80K+
Source: Cox Automotive,
VMAtext
Datastyles
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$60K-$80K
23
VEHICLE AFFORDABILITY: Rising Prices Transforming Marketplace
COVID accelerating longer-term trends – 30% of sales now above $50,000
Average Vehicle Transaction Price
$44,000
Price Growth
$43,108
$42,000
$40,000
+8% since 2020
+39% since 2012
Share of Market by MSRP Price Range 2012 – 2021
9.0%
50%
8.0%
45%
7.0%
6.0%
Share <$30,000
2012: 54%
2021: 19%
40%
Share >$50,000
2012: 6%
2021: 30%
35%
30%
$38,000
5.0%
25%
4.0%
$36,000
3.0%
$34,000
2.0%
$32,000
$30,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
20%
15%
10%
1.0%
5%
0.0%
0%
<20K
20K-30K
30K-40K
40K-50K
Source: Cox Automotive,
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50K-60K
60K+
24
BRAND PRICE INCREASES: Big Variation – Cadillac and Porsche At Extremes
Nationally, transaction prices rose over 8% but some brands – due to product mix – saw much larger/smaller changes
YOY Change in Transaction Price
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Fi
a
Su t
ba
ru
M
az
da
M
in
i
In
La
fin
nd
iti
Ro
ve
Ni r
ss
an
B
Al
uic
fa
Ro k
m
eo
Le
xu
s
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Po W
rs
ch
e
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a
Ra
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O
N
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Vo
lv
Hy o
un
da
i
Te
sla
Au
di
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To
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ta
Ca
di
ll
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en
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is
Do
dg
e
Vo Acu
ra
lks
w
ag
en
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Ch e ep
ev
ro
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Ja t
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M
Ho
er
ce
n
de d a
sBe
Ch n z
ry
M sle
r
i ts
ub
is
hi
G
M
C
0.0%
Source: Cox Automotive,
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25
“LUXURY” MARKET: Mercedes Once Ruled – Now It’s Ford
Competition rising with more brands entering higher price points
Share of MSRP $50K+ Market
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2012
Je
ep
Vo
lv
o
B
ui
ck
G
en
es
A
lfa
is
R
om
eo
am
R
Po
rs
ch
e
Li
nc
ol
n
N
is
sa
n
To
yo
ta
Ja
gu
Vo
a
lk
sw r
ag
en
H
yu
nd
ai
Te
sl
a
A
cu
ra
D
od
ge
Fo
rd
Le
xu
La
s
nd
R
ov
er
C
ad
ill
ac
M
C
G
In
fin
iti
ud
i
A
M
W
B
M
er
ce
de
sB
en
C
z
he
vr
ol
et
0.0%
2021
Source: Cox Automotive,
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26
NON-LUXURY MARKET: Toyota Leads The “Affordable” Market
Asian brands gaining share as Americans move to higher priced product segments
Share of MSRP <$50K Market
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2012
In
fin
M
iti
its
ub
is
hi
M
in
i
Vo
lv
o
ud
i
A
cu
ra
M
er
B
M
ce
W
de
sB
en
z
C
ad
ill
ac
A
ui
ck
B
a
Le
xu
s
M
az
d
am
R
hr
ys
le
r
ar
u
C
Su
b
M
C
G
Je
Vo
ep
lk
sw
ag
en
od
ge
ia
D
K
To
yo
ta
C
he
vr
ol
et
H
on
da
N
is
sa
n
H
yu
nd
ai
Fo
rd
0.0%
2021
Source: Cox Automotive,
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27
TOTAL REVENUE: Strong Margins And Prices Offset Lower Volumes
No hurry to return to “normal” - Industry revenue higher than 2019 with nearly 2 million few vehicles sold
Incentive % of Transaction Price
Price Share of MSRP
Estimated Monthly Transaction Revenue ($ billions)
12%
104%
$80
10%
102%
$70
8%
100%
6%
98%
4%
96%
$60
$50
$40
Total Revenue
(billions)
CY2019
$647
CY2020
$580
CY2021
$649
$30
2%
94%
$20
Incentive % Transaction Price
Price Strength
10/1/2021
7/1/2021
4/1/2021
1/1/2021
10/1/2020
7/1/2020
4/1/2020
1/1/2020
10/1/2019
7/1/2019
4/1/2019
92%
1/1/2019
0%
$10
$0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2021
Jun
Jul
Aug
2020
Source: Cox Automotive,
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Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
2019
28
SUMMARY
• Demand for vehicles in 2022 to remain robust thanks strong economic growth, improving labor
markets, and exciting new products.
• Biggest threats to 2022 remain COVID and the economy – new variants could disrupt the economic
recovery and supply chain, and higher interest rates likely to impact affordability.
• Key unknowns for 2022:
• How quickly can the industry re-stock dealer lots
• How much do manufacturers really want to
Source: Cox Automotive,
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29
MARKET PERFORMANCE: USED VEHICLES
KAYLA REYNOLDS
MANAGER, ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
@AutoKayla
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QUARTERLY SALES PACE: Slowing After A Spring Frenzy
Q3
Q4
Total Used SAAR
Retail Used SAAR
July
41.8
21.8
August
40.9
21.3
September
39.7
20.7
October
40.7
21.2
November
39.1
20.4
December
Forecast
39.1
20.4
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Source: Cox Automotive
32
INVENTORY MANAGEMENT: Used Days’ Supply Near Normal
Available Supply weekly
Days of Supply weekly
3,200,000
100.0
90.0
3,000,000
80.0
70.0
2,800,000
60.0
2,600,000
50.0
40.0
2,400,000
30.0
2021
2020
2019
20.0
2,200,000
2021
2020
2019
2,000,000
10.0
0.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Source: vAuto and Cox Edit
Automotive
Master text
Estimates
styles
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
33
PRICE MOVEMENT: Upward Trend Leads to Record Highs
MY 2018 Retail and Wholesale Price Index
2020 Retail Index
2021 Retail Index
2020 Wholesale Index
2021 Wholesale Index
145%
135%
125%
115%
105%
95%
85%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
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text styles
Source: Cox Automotive
34
RETAIL INVENTORY: Affordability Decreasing for Used Vehicles
50%
Average List
Price
Average Mileage
45%
December 2020
$21,979
66,381
40%
December 2021
$28,105
69,921
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$0K-$10K
$10K-$15K
$15K-$20K
$20K-$25K
December-20
$25K-$30K
$30K-$35K
$35K +
December-21
Source: vAuto and Cox Automotive
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35
USED-VEHICLE SALES AND FORECAST
FULL-YEAR
FORECASTS
2019
40.0
2020
37.3
2021
40.9
2022
39.3
2023
39.7
RETAIL
FORECASTS
2019
21.0
2020
19.8
2021
21.4
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Source: Cox Automotive
2022
22.1
2023
21.2
36
2022 OUTLOOK & PLAYLIST
JONATHAN SMOKE
CHIEF ECONOMIST
@smokeoncars
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16.0M
2022
FORECASTS
13.6M
2.4M
FLEET SALES
NEW SALES
NEW RETAIL SALES
3.7M
27%
NEW LEASE
VOLUME
LEASE
PENETRATION
CPO SALES
39.3M
22.1M
-3%
USED SALES
USED RETAIL SALES
3.0M
DEC 2022 Y/Y
MANHEIM USED
VEHICLE VALUE
INDEX
39
TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2022
#1: Vehicle Demand Will
Remain Robust, Especially
Through the First Half
#4: EV Growth
Will Outpace
Industry Growth
#5: Auto Loan
Rates Will Rise
#8: Robust Dealership
Consolidation Will Continue
#2: Used-Vehicle
Values Will Depreciate
Again, After the Spring
#6: Lease Demand
Will Improve in 2022
#9: Consumer Shift To
Online Becomes Dominant
#3: Tight Vehicle Supply
Will Gradually Improve
#7: The Service Revenue
Opportunity Will Continue
To Be Robust For Dealers
#10: Direct-To-Consumer Model
Will Force Dealers To Adapt
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40
PLAYLIST: Riding the Anti-Crash Wave
I Feel Good
By Pitbull,
Anthony Watts &
DJ White Shadow
Dealer Optimism
Do It To It
By ACraze Featuring
Cherish
Sunshine
By OneRepublic
No
By Little Mix
Vehicle Demand
Used-Vehicle Market
Economic Health
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41
Q&A
THANK YOU!
Contact Information:
Dara Hailes
Manager, Public Relations
Cox Automotive
[email protected]
Mark Schirmer
Director, Public Relations
Cox Automotive
[email protected]
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www.coxautoinc.com/marketsnapshot
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