Download Data for Graphic of the Day on Icelandic Volcanoes: During the

Data for Graphic of the Day on Icelandic Volcanoes:
During the spring of 2010, the eruption of a relatively small Icelandic volcano,
Eyjafjallajokull, resulted in massive disruption of European air travel, due to the
dispersion of volcanic ash. The range of impact was so large due to a few factors,
which when working together, result in massive headaches for Europe. The first is
the size of the ash particles that are released during the volcanic eruption. Because
Eyjafjallajokull is a subglacial volcano, upon eruption, the lava immediately comes
into contact with ice, cooling rapidly. This results in a very fine ash particle that is
released into the atmosphere. The finer the ash particle, the longer it remains in the
atmosphere. Additionally, the height of the eruption of ash is important. If the
eruption is significantly large (Eyjafjallajokull was 8 km), the ash can be carried by
the jet stream. In mid-April of 2010, the jet stream was traveling to a south-east
direction in the Northern Atlantic, taking the ash from Iceland towards Europe. The
activity of a neighboring volcano, Katla, is now being monitored. Katla is
significantly (10-100X) larger than Eyjafjallajokull and is also subglacial. Seismic
activity and global positioning systems are used to attempt to predict the likelihood
of an eruption. There has been significant seismic activity, beginning in July, which
has caught the notice of the media. Inflation of the volcano, monitored by GPS, was
detected in September of 2011. Below is a comparison of the previous incident
including wind directions and ash flow to what is currently happening with Katla.
2010 Eruption:
Initial Seismic Activity: Began at the end of 2009, with the initial eruption on 20th of
March and the major, second eruption on 14th of April 2010. The image below
shows measurable earthquakes on March 3rd.
http://i710.photobucket.com/albums/ww109/volcanism2/iceland/eyjafjallajokull_
2010-03-03.jpg
The eruption reached a height of >8 km and released 0.14 cubic kilometers, a
relatively small amount. However, 25% of the ash was less than 10 microns in size.
Average ash size is 50 microns or greater. The resultant small size allows more of
the ash to stay in the air and travel greater distances. The ash is carried by the jet
stream, and thus the direction of the jet stream is very important. Starting on April
15th, the jet stream shifted so it was carrying the ash from Iceland towards
continental Europe.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/jetstream/jetstream_atl/small/1004/ (I have put two of
many charts from the relevant dates here.)
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2010
/400x266_04161523_ashplume.jpg
The ash was thus dispersed and caused disruption of air travel for the better part of
a week in April, and to a smaller scale again in May.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_travel_disruption_after_the_2010_Eyjafjallaj%C3
%B6kull_eruption
Has the best graphics. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/page/2?s=Iceland has
more of a weather channel like feel.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html this is the website
that the black and white images were derived from.
The air travel impact was felt throughout most of Europe.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9d/Travel_crisis_in_E
urope_2010.png/220px-Travel_crisis_in_Europe_2010.png
(Graphic is from April 18th: Red is completely closed, orange is partially closed.)
Katla:
There has been an uptake in seismic activity since July of 2011. More recently,
starting on Oct. 5th, there have been numerous small earthquakes near the volcano.
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/wpcontent/uploads/2011/10/111005_2010.jpeg
Oct. 14th:
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/111014_13051.jpeg
Oct. 18th:
http://www.vedur.is/photos/jarmyrj/111018_1730.png
The jet stream for Oct. 18th shows that the general direction of air travel would be
almost directly south over the Atlantic.
http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_init_00.gif
Tomorrow the prediction is for it to move more to the east and towards the
continent. Three days from now, it will be traveling directly north.
If the wind directions are the same as they were for the 2010 eruption, a low
estimate of Katla’s size is 10X that of Eyjafjallajokull. A prediction of maybe 2X-5X
the area would be even more conservative in the estimate, and perhaps safer. Do
we want to account for other possible wind patterns and what areas of the globe
that would affect?