Download Climate Change 101 - Delaware Sea Grant

Climate and Climate Change:
What’s going on?!
Chris Petrone
Delaware Sea Grant / UD CEOE
[email protected]
@seaPetrone
Common climate change misconceptions
Misconceptions
Target conceptions
1. Global warming is caused by the
ozone hole, because the hole lets in
more radiation.
1. Global warming is caused by
increased greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. These gases include carbon
dioxide and water vapor, which trap
infrared radiation from the warmed
surface of the Earth.
2. Climate is simply long-term
weather and therefore can’t be
predicted.
2. Climate is the statistical analysis
of weather.
Common climate change misconceptions
Misconceptions
Target conceptions
3. The atmosphere is large and
small amounts of carbon dioxide or
a few degrees of temperature
change can’t make much difference.
3. Small changes in the atmosphere’s
composition or temperature can have a
large effect.
4. Weather anomalies can be used
as evidence for or against climate
change.
4. There is a link between climate
change and weather, but any
particular weather event cannot
“prove” that climate change is (or is
not) happening.
Common climate change misconceptions
Misconceptions
Target conceptions
5. The Earth gets closer to the sun in
summer and is farther away in
winter.
5. The tilt of Earth’s axis is the “reason
for the seasons.”
6. Atmospheric water vapor is the
heat‐trapping gas that is primarily
responsible for global warming.
6. Water vapor is increasing in the
atmosphere in response to rising
CO2 concentrations, amplifying the
warming effect of manmade CO2
emissions.
Others?
Climate change misconception resources
• NOAA “Ten Common Misconceptions about Climate and Climate Change”
- long url, Google it
• Veritasium’s “13 climate change misconceptions” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWXoRSIxyIU
• www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php (176 statements)
• Center for Climate & Energy Solutions (C2ES) “Realities vs.
Misconceptions about Climate Change Science” - www.c2es.org
Weather vs. Climate
Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.” –Mark Twain –
Robert Heinlein (1973)
“Climate lasts all the time and weather only a few days.” –Mark
Twain quoting a schoolchild (1887)
“Is not climate just made up of thousands of little weathers?” –
Stephen Colbert
>> 365 days x 30 years = 10,950 days
Climate is what’s in our wardrobe. Weather is what we wear today.
Weather vs. Climate
Can be
modeled
(forecasted)
7-10 days
out; more
accurate at
2-3 days
A statistical
analysis of
30 years
worth of
data
Weather vs. Climate
Embedded video removed; url below
Trend and Variation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw
Local vs. Global Scale
Local vs. Global Scale
“The Alps of MIT”
Credit: Tom Geary, MIT
Local vs. Global Scale
Local vs. Global Scale
90% of the heat trapped by greenhouse
gases is absorbed in oceans. Persistent rise
in ocean temperature evidence for global
warming.
Argo Floats
Measure temperature,
salinity, and currents in the
upper 2000 m.
Buoys rise and fall every 10
days to send data back to
public website.
How do we know the world is warming?
Humidity
Arctic Sea Ice
Air Temperature
over Ocean
Ocean Heat
Content
Sea Surface
Temperature
Temperature
of the Lower
Atmosphere
Snow
Global
Sea
Level
Air Temperature
over Land
Glaciers
Credit: Hunter Allen, NOAA
How do we know?
• Observations
• Measurements / Data
• Models
So how do
we know?
Credit: Office of Biological and Environmental Research of
the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
What’s actually happening?
Atmospheric CO2 : 575 million years ago to present
Plot of atmospheric CO2 levels from 550 million years ago to present and highlighting the timing of major and minor mass extinctions of
life. (Source: modified from Ward, P. 2007 Under A Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell
Us About Their Future, Harper Collins, New York) – downloaded at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/11/how-earth-avoided-globalwarming-before-suvs/
Atmospheric CO2: 400,000 years ago to present
Skepticalscience.com
CO2 since 1960 – the Keeling Curve
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
CO2 since 1960
Global climate models: No warming without CO2
Blue: models run with CO2
same as 1900 &
measured volcanic
events + solar energy
Red: models run with
measured CO2 (&
other greenhouse
gases) and SO4 &
measured volcanic
events + solar energy
= >0.5˚ warmer
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/images/pcm_ensemble.png
Sea level variability world-wide
Sea level variability in the US
+ Thermal
expansion
+ Melting
glaciers and
ice caps
+ Subsidence
(due to glacial
retreat)
• DE SLR = 13
inches in the
last 100 years
Observing Changes
EARLIER SPRING
Lilacs, honeysuckle, and other harbingers of
spring are flowering 1-2 weeks earlier in the
year.
Observing Changes
SHIFTING CROPS AND PLANTS
Center of blueberry production has shifted northward,
from Maine to Quebec.
Observing Changes
EXTREME HEAT
Record high temperatures and heat waves
2x more frequent.
Observing Changes
DROUGHT
Crop losses of $5B per year since
1980s.
Observing Changes
PESTS MOVING NORTH
Less cold days to keep red ants
& kudzu at bay
Observing Changes
Responses to warming
temperatures seen in
more than 25,000 physical
and biological systems
around the world.
Hardiness Zones
1990
So what
do we do
about it?
Credit: Office of Biological and Environmental Research of
the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science
So what do we do about it?
• Adapt – ways to live in our warming world
• Limit vulnerability
• Typically only benefits “us”
• Mitigate – stop future warming
• Emissions reductions
• Geoengineering
So what do we do about it?
Six Americas Audience Segments
http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/
Viewing Americans’ Beliefs on Climate Change
http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/
Resources
• www.madeclear.org
• www.skepticalscience.com
(and app!)
• climate.gov
• http://cleanet.org/
(++ education resources)
• ncdc.noaa.gov
• It’s happening
• We’re the cause
• We’re already feeling the effects
• Everyone can help fix it