Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Southwest Business Forum January 9, 2009 Fort Lewis College’s 17th Annual Focus on Our Future: Business and Economics Sponsored by Wells Fargo Investment Advice If you had purchased $1,000 of AIG stock one year ago, you would have $42 left. With Lehman, you would have $0.60 left. With Fannie or Freddie, you would have less than $5 left. But if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have had $214. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. It is always nice to know some investments still hold their value over time. Wall Street Sympathy Back in the 1929 Financial Crash it was said that some Wall Street Stockbrokers and Bankers JUMPED from their office windows and committed suicide when confronted with the news of their firms and clients financial ruin . . . Many people were said to feel sorry for them . . . In 2008 the attitude has changed somewhat: Beeeeep…. The Region 9 Economy Region 9 Labor Force Source: U.S. Census Bureau Region 9 Labor Force Growth Rates Source: U.S. Census Bureau Region 9 Per Capita Income Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available. Region 9 Per Capita Income: Percentage of Colorado Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available. Region 9 Growth Per Capita Income Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available. Region 9 Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System. Most recent data available. The La Plata County Economy Tourism Tourism Includes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Airport Passengers Train Ridership Mesa Verde Visitors Lodger’s Tax Collected Skier Boarder Visits Airport Passenger Activity (enplanements) Percent Change By Year (1995-2008) 18% Percent Change 20% 15% 12% 12% 10% 8% 5% 5% 2% 4% 6% 2% 1% 0% -5% 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 20071996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -10% -8% -11% -15% -13% Year Source: Durango - La Plata County Airport Train Passenger Activity Percent Change By Year (2001-2008e) 24.7 Percent Change 30 20 10 3.3 0.5 0 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 -10 -1.2 -20 -0.5 -12.1 -30 -40 -32.8 Year Source: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad e = estimate Percent Change Mesa Verde Visitors Percent Change By Year (1995-2008e) 20 14 15 10.6 11.8 9.6 10 5.2 2.4 2.1 5 1 0 2007-2008 -51995-1996 1997-1998 1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006 -2.9 -10 -3.9 -15 -6.9 -20 -25 -22 -30 -28 -35 Year Source: National Park Service Public Use Statistics Office e = estimate Lodger’s Tax Revenue (Durango) Percent Change By Year (2003-2008e) 12.0 10.7 10.0 P e r c e n t C 8.0 h a 6.0 n g 4.0 e 8.4 7.0 6.7 2006-2007 2007-2008 4.8 2.0 0.0 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 Year Sources: City of Durango (unadjusted numbers) e = estimate Skier/Boarder Visits Year United States (millions) Purgatory (DMR) 2000/01 57.3 322,000 2001/02 54.4 251,000 2002/03 57.6 236,000 2003/04 57.1 268,000 2004/05 56.9 278,000 2005/06 58.8 211,000 2006/07 55.0 252,000 2007/08 60.5 278,000 Sources: National Ski Association and Annual Reports Retail Sales (Adjusted for Inflation) An indicator of tourism activity as well as population growth. La Plata County Retail Sales (adjusted $s) Percent Change – Semi-Annual (2003-2008) Source: Colorado Department of Revenue 2009 Tourism and Retail Outlook Tourism: Dependent upon discretionary spending Retail: Reflection of national economy Agriculture Includes Calf Prices and Alfalfa Hay Prices – adjusted for inflation. A better measure would be sales, but these numbers are not available. Alfalfa Hay Prices Percent Change By Year (1995-2008e) 35.9 Percent Change 40 30 20 16.9 18.5 15.7 12.4 10 3.3 12.3 2.8 0 -10 -20 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 20071996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -13.2 -0.3 -1.4 -9.2 -20.3 -30 Year Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate Calf Prices, Adjusted Dollar Value per Cut Weight Percent Change By Year (1995-2008e) Percent Change 50 40.1 40 30 18.3 20 10 12.7 12.4 5.7 9.8 0 -10 -20 -30 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 20071996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -5.4 -14 -3.85 -9.9 -10.9 -5 -23 Year Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture - Economics, Statistics and Market Information System e = estimate 2009 Agriculture Outlook Higher volatility in commodity prices Hedge fund deleveraging Corn-based ethanol Decreased prices in calf prices Not passing input costs to consumer Ranchers/farmers not buying calves with increased feed costs Industrial Kilowatt-Hours Used as an indicator of industrial activity in the county. Most industrial usage of electricity in the county is to compress natural gas for transmission through gas pipelines Industrial Kilowatt Hours Percent Change By Year (1995-2008e) 60.0 50.9 50.0 Percent Change 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 9.1 10.2 6.9 6.6 6.5 7.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 -10.0 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 20071996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -6.3 -7.3 -2.3 -20.0 Year Source: La Plata Electric Association Inc. e = estimate -2.3 2008-2009 Observations for Oil & Gas Given the current regulations in the oil & gas industry, the region is producing natural gas near full capacity High political uncertainty Fort Lewis College Enrollment The college stabilizes the economy because of higher enrollment in the fall and winter months. This offsets some of the decline in tourism during this time period. Fort Lewis College Enrollment (Fall) Percent Change By Year (1995-2008) 8.0% 6.2% Percent Change 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% -2.0% 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 20081996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -2.1% -1.6% -4.0% -1.0% -0.4% -2.8% -3.8% -4.80% -6.0% -5.8% -8.0% Year Source: Fort Lewis College 2009 Fort Lewis College Outlook Increased admission standards at FLC Comparable with UC-Boulder and CSU Slight dip in enrollment last several years Intermediate-term goal is 5,000 students Increased number of applications and lower admission rate Residential Real Estate % Change in Median Price of Durango In-Town Single-Family Home Average Days on Market & Number of Transactions In-Town Durango Median Home Price of Condos/Town Homes In-Town Durango Days on Market & Number of Transactions Condos/Town Homes Durango In-Town Building Permits This indicator uses the adjusted dollar valuation of the properties for which permits were issued—thereby measuring the dollar value (as assessed) of new construction in La Plata County. Building Permits (Construction) Percent Change By Year (2002-2008) Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango Planning and Community Development Department Building Permits (Construction Value) Percent Change By Year (2002-2008e) 40% Percent Change 30% 28% 25% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 -7% -19% -24% -30% -40% -39.60% -50% Year Sources: La Plata County Building Department, City of Durango Planning and Community Development Department e = estimate Durango Price-to-Rent Analysis Durango Comparables Price-to-Rent 2009 Real Estate Outlook Nation is absorbing the worst real estate correction since the Great Depression National builders anticipate a bottom in early 2010 Single-family homes = healthy correction Condos/Town Homes = less healthy correction Building permits = significant decline Bank Deposits An important indicator of the economic health of the community. Also an indicator of the ability of local banks to make loans to consumers and business borrowers. Bank Deposits (Unadjusted) June 30th Deposits Year to Year % Change 2002 $615,000,000 2003 2004 $702,000,000 $778,000,000 +14.2 +10.8 2005 2006 2007 $874,000,000 $1,020,000,000 $1,034,000,000 +12.3 +16.7 +1.4 2008 $1,097,000,000 +6.0 Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Inflation Durango Price Index (DPI) Monitors the change in the price of goods and services in our region Durango Price Index Adjust Denver CPI for Durango housing and income levels Assumes similar other expenditure patterns as Denver consumers Durango Price Index versus Denver CPI Annual Inflation Rate: Durango vs. Denver 2009 Inflation Outlook Durango housing rents will continue to increase Volatility in commodity prices Decreased consumer spending Our Web Address: http://soba.fortlewis.edu/econoweb/ Thank You!