Download Poverty, the `New Middle Classes` and Sustainable

Poverty, the ‘New Middle Classes’ and
Sustainable Development
Peter Kingstone
Professor and Co-Director,
International Development Institute
King’s College London
Presentation for the “Common Challenges, Multiple Perspectives: Middle Income Countries Experts’ Consultation “
UNDP, Seoul, Korea, May 13-15, 2013
Where do the world’s poor live:
% of world poverty ($1.25), 2008
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
74.3
63.7
44.3
48.6
21.5
30.5
25.7
32.3
25.8
Why the Change: Large fall in the number of low-income countries
Number of LICs and MICs
120
100
80
60
63
LICs
MICs
43
40
35
20
0
2000
2008
2010
But global poverty didn’t fall much outside China...
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
1990
600
2008
400
200
0
Global
poverty
Number of Poor
(millions)
Top 10
Top 20
Global
poverty
minus
China
Top 10
minus
China
Top 20
minus
China
The other big story: the ‘new’ but not so well-off middle classes
Share of informal employment in total non-agricultural employment
Source: OECD, 2009
Country
1990-1994
Egypt
1995-1999
2000-2007
2009
55.2
45.9
45.9
50.6
50.6
South Africa
Argentina
47.5
53.3
Brazil
60
60
51.1
51.1
Mexico
55.5
59.4
50.1
50.1
India
73.7
83.4
83.4
77.9
77.9
51.5
51.5
Indonesia
Thailand
51.4
53.3
Turkey
30.9
33.2
33.2
Romania
5.4
22
22
Health Care costs fall heavily on households
Lower Middle
Per Capita
Total Health
Public Share
Out of Pocket
Health Expend
Expend GDP
Total Health
ShareTotal
Expend
Health Expend
81
4%
42%
53%
488
6%
55%
31%
4,618
11
61%
14%
Income
Upper Middle
Income
High Income OECD
Source: Maria-Luisa Escobar, Charles Griffin, R. Shaw ( 2010)
Taxes: A key element in the fight against poverty
Fiscal Health in the emerging economies is tightly linked to commodity export
revenues
What happens if commodity prices fall?
Estimated Impact on Total Revenues as a Result of a 25% Decline in Real Commodity Prices
Source: “Rethinking Reforms: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Escape Suppressed World Growth.” IDB, 2013