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Continuous Random Variables Continuous random variable I Definition: A random variable X is continuous if the CDF FX (x) = P(X ≤ x) is a continuous function of x. I Example 1: Weight of a new born baby; I Example 2: Waiting time in a bus stop. Density function I Definition: The probability density function fX (x) of a continuous random variable X is the function that satisfies Rx FX (x) = −∞ fX (t)dt. CDF and density function I If X has a density fX (x), then FX (x) = Rx −∞ fX (u)du. If FX (x) is differentiable and fX (x) is continuous at point x0 , then d FX (x)|x=x0 = FX0 (x0 ) = fX (x0 ). dx Example Suppose X is a continuous random variable whose probability density function is given by C(4x − 2x 2 ), 0 < x < 2; fX (x) = 0 otherwise; (a) What is the value of C (b) Find P(X > 1)? Example If X is a continuous random variable whose probability density function is fX (x) and distribution function is FX (x), Find the density function of Y = 2X . Density is not probability I Note that fX (t) is not probability. Actually, P(X = t) = 0 for any t if X is a continuous random variable. Because {X = t} ⊂ {t − < X ≤ t} for any P(X = t) ≤ P(t − < X ≤ t) = FX (t) − FX (t − ). Hence 0 ≤ P(X = t) ≤ lim→0 [FX (t) − FX (t − )] = 0 by continuity of FX . I Any meaningful statement about probability must consider X lying in some interval. Probability is interpreted as the area under the density function. Example The amount of time in hours that a computer functions before breaking down is a continuous random variable with probability density function given by λ exp−x/100 , x ≥ 0; fX (x) = 0 otherwise; What is the probability that (a) a computer will function between 50 and 150 hours before breaking down? (b) it will function for fewer than 100 hours? Example: Logistic distribution A random variable X with logistic distribution if FX (x) = 1 . 1+e−x Then fX (x) = dFX (x) e−x = dx (1 + e−x )2 P(a < X < b) = FX (b) − FX (a) Z b Z = fX (x)dx − −∞ a Z fX (x)dx = −∞ If ∆x is small, P(a ≤ x ≤ a + ∆x) ≈ fX (a)∆x. b fX (x)dx. a Expected value I Definition: Let X be a continuous random variable with density f (x). Then the expected value of a random variable g(X ) is Z E(g(X )) = provided that I R g(x)f (x)dx |g(x)|f (x)dx exists. Linearity: E(ag1 (X ) + bg2 (X ) + c) = aE(g1 (X )) + bE(g2 (X )) + c. Examples Find E(X ) when the density function of X is 2x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1; fX (x) = 0 otherwise; Examples Find E(eX ) when the density function of X is 1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1; fX (x) = 0 otherwise; Examples I Example 1: If X has exponential(λ), i.e., fX (x) = x 1 exp(− ) x ≥ 0 and λ > 0. λ λ What is the expectation of X ? I Example 2: If X has Cauchy distribution, the density of X is fX (x) = 1 1 π 1 + x2 What is the expectation of X ? − ∞ < x < ∞. Variance I For any random variable X , the variance is Var(X ) = E[(X − E(X ))2 ]. I Example: If X has exponential(λ), what is the variance of X?