Download 2005 - Massey University

Improving Human Well-Being on a ResourceLimited Planet – Can we Do It?
Professor Sir David King
Chair, Future Cities Catapult, London
Director, Cambridge Kaspakas
Senior Science Advisor, UBS
Chancellor, University of Liverpool
Chief Scientific Adviser’s work
• Reactive
–
–
–
–
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD)
BSE
Natural Hazards
Avian flu
• Proactive and strategic
–
–
–
–
–
–
Global warming
GM Science Review
Horizon Scanning
Post 9/11 resilience and detection
African Development
Flu pandemic
The Loess Plateau, China
Source: CSIRO
Loess Plateau: The Mother River
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
21st Century Challenges
Food production
Minerals
Climate
change
Population – the
driver
Ecosystems
Conflict
and
terrorism
Water
resource
Health and
development
Energy security
and supply
Total Population of the World in Billions
Middle Class*
*Middle class here
defined as daily per
capita spending of
between $10 and $100
in PPP terms
Source: IIASA
Rising Middle Class
• 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today
• 3 billion more middle-class consumers
expected by 2030
• 90% of that growth coming from the AsiaPacific region
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
MGI Commodity Price Index (years 19992001=100)
Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011
“Circular Economy”
Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation
Global Water Demand
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009
Global Food Demand
Source: FAO
The Arab Spring
Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA
Copper Reserves
Source: Chuquicamata in Chile
Oil Production:
Has Oil Passed its Tipping Point?
Source: K. James/Bloomberg/Getty
Conventional Oil Supply and Demand
Volume of conventional oil discovered
Volume of conventional oil consumed
Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth
Billions of barrels
[Gb]
50
40
30
20
10
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010)
Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026
Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production
from 1998 to present
Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435
Impact of Oil Price Volatility on
Economies
Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility
The Global Flow of Energy
Source: J.M. Cullen and : J.M. Allwood, University of Cambridge Energy Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.054
Energy
Technologies
Institute
•Public-Private partnership
between UK Government and
industry
•BP, Shell, EDF, E:On,
Caterpillar Inc, Rolls Royce,
S&SEG all core partners
•Will invest over £1bn in
energy research, design,
demonstration and
development over 10 years
•Looking to develop links with
other countries
Observed Global Temperatures
0
Temperature
δ18 0 (ppt)
1
2
3
4
20 million
3 million
2.5 million
2 million
1.5 million
1 million
0.5 million
Present
389 ppm
Interglacial
period
Carbon
dioxide
40 million
Temperature
5
60 million years ago
-325ppm
-300ppm
0ºC
Carbon dioxide
275ppm
-2ºC
-4ºC
250ppm
Glacial
period
Temperature
225ppm
-6ºC
200ppm
-8ºC
400,000 years ago
300,000
200,000
100,000
Present
Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485
Source: ML Design. From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009
175ppm
Sea Level and Temperature Measurements
Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool
European Temperatures 1900 – 2100
Source: Hadley Centre
Destruction of forests
Source: World Research Institute
Protection Areas
CAPE
COD
Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service
Foresight projects
Sustainable
Mental Capital Energy
and Wellbeing Management
and the Built
Environment
Brain Science,
Addiction and
Drugs
Cognitive
Systems
Detection and
Identification of
Infectious
Diseases
Flood and
Coastal
Defence
Intelligent
Infrastructure
Systems
Tackling
Obesities:
Future Choices
Exploiting the Cyber Trust and
Electromagnetic Crime Prevention
Spectrum
Flood and Coastal Defence Foresight
• Catchment wide Storage
• Land-use planning
• Realigning Coastal Defences
Source: Foresight Future Flooding 2004
Investment in Water Infrastructure
On average, every £1 currently invested in new and improved flood risk
management assets reduces the long-term cost of flooding and coastal erosion
damages by around £8.
‘water has an economic value…absence of a water
management system costs more than the implementation of
such a system’
Source: Environment Agency, 2009
Source: Resource, 2012
The Paradigm Shift
•
Collective response
•
Global governance
•
Sustainable consumption
•
Science, technology,
innovation and imagination
A Twenty First Century Renaissance
Global Action on Global Warming
• IPCC, 1988
• United Nations Framework Convention on
climate change, 1992
• Kyoto, 1997
• UK Government’s 60% target, 2003; then
80% in 2007
• EU: Emissions trading, 2004
• G8+5, Gleneagles, 2005
The Rise in Emissions to 2100
Source: Adapted from Defra
Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions
2009 (Tonnes)
Source: International Energy Statistics
Largest Interregional Fluxes of Emissions
Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y−1)
Source: Davis and Cladeira (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions, PNAS
Timeline of Climate Change Action
National:
2003
UK
unilaterally
declares
60%
emissions
reduction
target for
2050
2005
Gleneagles G8+5
2005
European
Union
adoption of
the ETS
2004
UK Internal
ETS
established
1990
1992
UNFCCC
formation
UN:
2000
1997
Kyoto
Protocol
2005
Kyoto
Protocol
enters
into force
2001
Marrakesh –
Kyoto Protocol
implementation
rules agreed
2010
2011
Durban
Platform
2010
Cancun
Agreement
2009
Copenhagen
Accord
2020
Global
Process
2012
Kyoto I
ends
National and
Regional
Commitments
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
2030
Emissions Trajectories from 2010-2050 under BAU
Scenario and a Global Cap-and-Trade System
Source: Adapted from Marchal et al., 2011
National Actions on Climate Change
Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements.
‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU
by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action.
Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps
National Action: Rwanda
Historical Development of Advanced
Economies
Science,
Technology,
Engineering
Imported
goods
Manufacturing
Innovation
Offshore
Manufacturing
Emergence of Smart Green Advanced
Manufacturing Sector
Science,
Technology,
Engineering
Smart green
advanced
manufacturing
sector
Innovation
The International Fusion
Project: ITER
Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy
Plastic photovoltaics
Richard Friend
Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust
Low Carbon Vehicles
Source: Gordon Murray Designs
Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST
Hybrid Airship
Source: Aviation and the Environment March 2010
People vs. Cars
Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa
Economy
Quality of Life
Environment
Security
Healthcare
Buildings
Education
Water and Waste
Energy
Comms
Transport
Economy
Quality
of
Life
Low
Impact
Integration
Progress in China
• 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development
put forward
• 2005 - Bureau took climate change
seriously – limiting fossil fuel in their
development
• 2012 - 15th November – Changed their
constitution
Ecosystems and Human Well-Being
Scenarios
Human
Wellbeing
‘Unsustainable Boom’
Equitable wealth
distribution
Instabilities due to
resource scarcity
‘Renaissance World’
Good use of
technology
Behavioural transition
Accounting for
common good
‘The Frog Boiler ’
Degraded planetary
system
Resource scarcity
‘Gates and Ghettoes’
Only low level of the
population achieves
well-being
Society in reverse
State of Resources and
Global Commons
Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau
1997
Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org
2005