Download GrainCorp Powerpoint Template 2009

27 November 2009
Sam Tainsh General Manager Trading
GrainCorp
BARLEY & OILSEEDS UPDATE
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
1
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
•
World Oilseeds
World Canola
Oils demand
World barley
Australian barley
Currencies
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
2
International Oilseed S & D
Source: Oil World
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
3
International Canola S & D
Source: Oil World
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
4
Canola Stocks to Use Ratio
World Rapeseed Stocks to Use vs Winnipeg Canola
Stocks to Use
Winnipeg Canola
800
17.00%
700
15.00%
600
CAD/MT
400
11.00%
300
Stocks to Use
13.00%
500
9.00%
200
7.00%
100
0
Jul 05
5.00%
Jan 06
Jul 06
Jan 07
Jul 07
Jan 08
Jul 08
Jan 09
Jul 09
Jan 10
Source: FutureSource, Oil World
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
5
Biodiesel Production
Source: Oil World
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
6
Growing Food Oil Consumption
Food Oil Consumption
Food Oil Consumption
100,000
95,000
(000’s mt)
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
Source: USDA
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
7
Oilseed Summary
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•
•
•
Strong demand underpinning current values
Focus will be on the South American bean crops
Oilseed production recovery from last year likely
The increased rapeseed plantings this year are needed to
support growing demand
• Major exporting nations are watching the Chinese Blackleg
issues
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
8
Global Feed Grains
Major Global Feed Grain Production Breakdown
Oats
24
Rye
16
Sorghum
63
Corn
789mmt
76%
Barley
147
14%
Barley
Corn
Oats
Rye
Sorghum
Source: USDA
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
9
Global Barley Supply & Demand
Global Barley Supply and Demand
Attribute
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)
21,283
19,775
30,214
Area Harvested (1000 HA)
57,242
55,447
55,142
Production (1000 MT)
132,838
153,734
147,824
MY Imports (1000 MT)
15,649
19,646
16,831
MY Exports (1000 MT)
15,465
20,096
17,243
Feed and Residual (1000 MT)
92,204
99,495
101,424
FSI Consumption (1000 MT)
42,326
43,350
44,199
134,530
142,845
145,623
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)
19,775
30,214
32,003
Stocks to Use
15%
21%
22%
Total Consumption (1000 MT)
Source: USDA
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10
Barley Production Area
Australian Barley Area
1990 - 2009
5,000
4,500
4,000
HA (000's)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Source: ABARE, ABS
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
11
Australian Barley Production
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
12
US Corn Demand
US Domestic Corn Demand
Food/Seed/Industrial
Total Domestic Demand
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Source: USDA
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
13
The Australian Dollar
33% Increase
Source: FutureSource
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
14
Ukraine & Russian
Russian & Ukraine Currencies
Rusian RUBBLE
Urkraine Hrynia
10
3
4
15
5
20
RUB: -18%
UAH: -43%
6
25
7
30
8
35
9
40
Jul 08
Sep 08
Source: FutureSource
10
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09
Jul 09
Sep 09
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
Nov 09
15
Questions
Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills
16