Download General background

Russian pension reform
in a comparative
perspective
Oxana Sinyavskaya (Independent Institute for Social Policy,
Moscow)
Joint AARP – European Centre Conference “Re-Inventing Retirement. Reshaping
Health & Financial Security for the EU 27 and Eastern Europe”
October 22-25, 2008
Outline of the presentation
•
•
•
•
General background
Evolution of Russian pension reform model
Current design of Russian pension reform
Second order problems and further
modifications of the legislation
• Future perspectives
October 22-25, 2008
General background:
600
500
Russia
Urkaine
400
Poland
France
300
Germany
Sweden
200
Kazakhstan
Turkey
100
20
90
20
80
20
70
20
60
20
50
20
40
20
30
20
20
20
10
0
20
00
people aged 65+ per 1000 people of 15-64
years old
Russian population is ageing rapidly
mid of the year
World Bank: Health, Nutrition and Population Summary Profile,
Demographic Projections
October 22-25, 2008
General background:
… but life expectancy remains very low
85
80
75
years
Russia, males
Russia, females
70
Ukraine, m
Ukraine, f
65
France, m
France, f
60
55
1960
1965
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
Life expectancy at birth – MPIDR Human Mortality Database, Aug.-2007
October 22-25, 2008
General background:
Peculiarities of Russia’s Economic Transition
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
1990
1991 1992
1993
1994
1995 1996
1997
1998
index of real GDP (1990=100%)
1999 2000
2001
2002
2003 2004
2005
index of real w age (1990=100%)
index of changes in employment (1990=100%)
Statistics
– Relatively stable employment (low unemployment)
– But extremely low wage + wage arrears
October 22-25, 2008
General background:
Economic situation on the eve of reform and now
On the eve of reform
2007-2008
• Financial crisis of 1998
• Economic growth - stable but –
because of high energy prices
• Budget surplus kept but promises are
increasing
• Rising inflation – 9% (2006), 11.9%
(2007), 14-15% (expected in 2008)
• Inequality – still high, growing?
• Official poverty rates – 2 times less
• Unemployment – moderate decline
(5.3% in Aug.-2008)
• High volatility of financial markets
•
•
•
•
Economic growth from 1999
Budget surplus from 2000
Declining inflation (18.6% in 2001)
Increasing inequality: Gini
coefficients –
incomes = 0.397; wages = 0.508
• Declining unemployment (8.8% in
2001)
• Pension arrears – paid back in 2000
October 22-25, 2008
Starting point: Basic facts of Russian
pension regulation
Soviet era
•
•
Law 1990
•
•
•
DB PAYG
Coverage – all population
Social pensions for those ever not been
employed
•
•
•
•
CR = 28% (employer)+1% (employee)
Age – 55 (f), 60 (m)
The same occupational privileges
Special system for federal employees
•
DB PAYG
Separate systems for state workers &
clerks, and collective farmers
Inactive groups, self-employed and
some special professional gr. – not
covered
CR = 4-11%, employer
Age – 55 (f), 60 (m)
A lot of special rules for different
occupations permitted to retire earlier
“Personal” pensions
•
•
Benefit = 55% of ind.wage/salary
No indexation + maximum limited
•
•
The same rules for benefit formula
Price indexation
•
•
•
•
October 22-25, 2008
Changes and challenges of 1990s
• Expansion of early
retirement provisions
• Difficult schemes of pension
benefit
indexation/compensation
• Two benefit formulas since
1998
• Low compliance
• PFR deficit
• Pension arrears
• But: Wide coverage
• High income inequality
• High people expectations
October 22-25, 2008
Evolution of Russian pension reform
models – the role of international experience
“Multi-pillar” cover but what is inside?
1.
1995 – the concept of the reform of the pension system (“rationalization”,
continental Europe fancy)

2.
1997 – proposal of the pension reform developed by the Ministry of
Labor and Social Development (Chilean pension reform inspiration)

3.
New: mandatory fully-funded system + means-tested for not-insured
1998 – the program of the pension reform – a compromise between 1 & 2
(lesson-drawing from Polish and Swedish pension reforms)

4.
New: voluntary occupational and individual private pensions
New: notional accounts
2002 – ongoing pension reform – a set of laws of 2001-2002

New: state ownership on mandatory pension savings, state managing company by
default, no employee contributions, fixed denominator (modification of NDC)
October 22-25, 2008
“Pillars” of new Russian pension
system
Coverage
Eligibility
Sources of financing
3rd pillar
Voluntary
pensions
2nd pillar:
Labor pensions –
PAYG (NDC) + funded (FDC)
Mandatory occupational pensions –
not yet!
1st pillar
Basic pensions for all differentiated by the level of disability
& number of dependants
+ “public” pensions financed from general taxes
October 22-25, 2008
Declared aims of the pension
reform
• Direct
– To strengthen of link between contributions and
pensions
– To increase real pension benefits
– To sustain financial balance of the pension
system
• Indirect
– To involve people’s saving into investment
process
October 22-25, 2008
Second order problems: poverty levels of
pensioners – low…
Household Type
Poverty level
(monetary
income p/c)
Poverty level (disposable
resources (maximum of
incomes and
expenditures), excluding
families with secondary
liquid housing
Deficit of
disposable
resources for poor
(by disposable
resources)
households
All households
49,0
26,0
28,8
Single pensioner of pension age (55/60
and over)
34,4
8,1
17,3
Households of pensioners of pension ages
25,2
6,6
12,8
Households of pensioners, including
pensioners below pension age
51,3
25,7
23,8
Households of pensioners and nonpensioners, including people of pension
ages
52,9
31,4
26,8
Households of pensioners and nonpensioners, all below pension ages
60,0
36,4
30,9
Households without pensioners
57,2
33,6
31,1
NOBUS data, 2003
October 22-25, 2008
Second-order problems: … but average
pension decreases relative to average wage
140
45
100
35
80
30
%
40
%
120
left axis:
real pension benefits
(1990=100)
60
25
40
20
20
15
2006
2007
2003
2004
2005
1999
2000
2001
2002
1995
1996
1997
1998
1992
1993
1994
10
1990
1991
0
left:
pens.benefits to
poverty line
right axis:
average pension to
average wage
Statistics
October 22-25, 2008
Second-order problems: … and benefits
become more flat and less dependent on the
wage history
100%
Structure of
average oldage labor
pension
4
3
3
60
62
63
3
3
57
58
90%
80%
share of total benefit
70%
"public pension"
60%
"insurance" part
(NDC)
50%
basic part
40%
30%
20%
36
35
34
2002
2003
2004
40
39
2005
2006
10%
0%
2007?
Statistics
October 22-25, 2008
Second-order problems: working-able
people do not know about pension
reform
53
24
39
30
30
12
8
yes
some things
no
1 = nothing
2
3
4
Does a respondent understand the rules of pension system?
4
5 = wellinformed
Has a respondent heard something
about ongoing pension reform?
Special pension module of Rus-GGS-2007
• … and absolute majority prefers to keep pension savings in the
default state company
October 22-25, 2008
Second-order problems: current deficit of
Pension Fund budget because of …
• Tax reform – Unified Social Tax
reduction
• Development of funded
component of pension system:
– Maximum rate – 20% instead of
28%
– Regressive scale with fixed
thresholds
– 3-6% of wages of people born
after 1966 – now: about 4050% of total contributors
• Additional indexation of basic parts
of pensions – a response to social
benefits reform and elections
– Aim – social pension = pensioners’
poverty level by the end of 2009
Immediate solutions:
• Federal budget transfer to the Pension fund
•People born in 1952/1957-1966 excluded from the funded pillar from 2005
October 22-25, 2008
New attempts to “reform” the
pension reform
• Focus – on the current pensioners  to prevent
poverty
• State support of voluntary pension savings
added to the mandatory ones
• Long-term sustainability of the pension system?
• Looking-for new sources of financing the
transition period
October 22-25, 2008
Conclusions
• Any goal of the pension reform has not been
achieved yet. Economic growth as an obstacle to
the pension reform?
• Difficulties in implementing “unpopular” steps
• Current pensioners lost but will the future
pensioners win? Effect of the international
financial crisis
• How to learn by other countries’ mistakes?
Details matter in transferring other models
October 22-25, 2008
Thank you for your
attention!
October 22-25, 2008