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Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Undersecretariat of Treasury PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT REPORT February 2005 This report has been drawn up in accordance with Article 14 of Law No. 4749 on the Regulation of Public Financing and Debt Management. This issue of the Report contains the developments and assessments regarding the period of JanuaryDecember 2004, and does not contain developments in the following periods. Information contained in this report can be used provided that the source is cited. For further information: (312) 212 9045 (312) 212 8911 (312) 204 6167-204 6157 e-mail: [email protected] CONTENTS CONTENTS............................................................................................................................... i TABLES ................................................................................................................................... iv GRAPHS .................................................................................................................................. vi 1 CONSOLIDATED BUDGET............................................................................................ 1 2 DEBT MANAGEMENT.................................................................................................... 6 2.1 BORROWING LIMIT.................................................................................................... 6 2.2 DOMESTIC DEBT MARKETS .................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 DOMESTIC BORROWING ........................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICE........................................................................................ 7 2.2.3 CURRENCY, INTEREST-TYPE AND MATURITY STRUCTURE OF DOMESTIC BORROWING ........................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.4 SECONDARY BOND MARKETS .............................................................................. 12 2.3 EXTERNAL DEBT MARKETS .................................................................................. 18 2.4.1 PROGRAM FINANCING ............................................................................................ 19 2.4.1.1 International Capital Markets.................................................................................... 19 2.4.1.2 International Institutions ........................................................................................... 21 2.4.2 PROJECT FINANCING ............................................................................................... 23 2.4.3 EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE ..................................................................................... 27 2.4.4 SECONDARY MARKETS........................................................................................... 29 2.4.5 CREDIT RATING......................................................................................................... 31 3 DEBT STOCK .................................................................................................................. 33 3.1 CHANGES IN DEBT STOCK ..................................................................................... 33 i 3.1.1 DOMESTIC DEBT ....................................................................................................... 33 3.1.2 EXTERNAL DEBT....................................................................................................... 34 3.2 STRUCTURE OF CONSOLIDATED BUDGET DEBT STOCK ............................ 36 3.2.1 DOMESTIC DEBT ....................................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 EXTERNAL DEBT....................................................................................................... 38 4 DEBT SERVICE PROJECTION ................................................................................... 40 5 GRANTS ........................................................................................................................... 44 5.1 GRANTS AWARDED .................................................................................................. 44 5.2 GRANTS RECEIVED .................................................................................................. 44 6 CONTINGENT LIABILITIES....................................................................................... 46 6.1 REPAYMENT GUARANTEES................................................................................... 46 6.1.1 TREASURY GUARANTEED EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK ..................................... 46 6.1.2 REPAYMENT GUARANTEES ISSUED .................................................................... 49 6.2 INVESTMENT GUARANTEES ................................................................................. 50 6.3 REPAYMENTS FOR CONTINGENT LIABILITIES .............................................. 50 6.4 REPAYMENT PROJECTION OF TREASURY GUARANTEED DEBT .............. 55 7 FINANCIAL RECEIVABLES ...................................................................................... 57 7.1 TREASURY RECEIVABLES STOCK....................................................................... 57 7.2 OUTSTANDING OVERDUE RECEIVABLES......................................................... 60 7.3 PROJECTED RECEIVABLES ................................................................................... 63 7.4 COLLECTIONS............................................................................................................ 65 8 RISK MANAGEMENT................................................................................................... 69 8.1 BENCHMARKS FOR 2005.......................................................................................... 69 8.2 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF STOCK....................................................... 70 ii 8.2.1 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK........................ 70 8.2.2 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF EXTERNAL BOND STOCK ...................... 71 8.3 DURATION ................................................................................................................... 71 8.3.1 DURATION OF TL-DENOMINATED CASH DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK............. 71 8.3.2 DURATION OF EXTERNAL BOND STOCK............................................................ 72 8.4 REAL INTEREST RATE OF DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK ..................................... 73 8.5 PUBLIC SECTOR NET DEBT STOCK ..................................................................... 74 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................ 76 APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................. 76 APPENDIX 2: METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 82 APPENDIX 2: PUBLIC FINANCE DATA ......................................................................... 89 iii TABLES Table 1: Budget Realization .................................................................................................... 1 Table 2: Budget Realization .................................................................................................... 3 Table 3: Consolidated Budget Financing ............................................................................... 5 Table 4: 2004 Net Borrowing Limit........................................................................................ 6 Table 5: 2004 Net Borrowing .................................................................................................. 6 Table 6: Domestic Borrowing.................................................................................................. 7 Table 7: Domestic Debt Service ............................................................................................ 8 Table 8: Currency and Interest Rate Composition of Domestic Market Borrowing ....... 9 Table 9: The Composition of Domestic Debt Stock Held by the Market ......................... 16 Table 10: Maturity Composition of Domestic Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts ....................................................................................................................... 17 Table 11: External Debt Disbursements for Consolidated Budget ................................... 18 Table 12: Eurobond Issuance In 2004 .................................................................................. 19 Table 13: Disbursements of World Bank Credits ............................................................... 23 Table 14: Distribution of Project Credits by Sector ........................................................... 24 Table 15: Distribution of External Project Credits Disbursements by Lenders .............. 24 Table 16: Repayments of Consolidated Budget External Debt in 2004 ........................... 28 Table 17: Currency Composition of Repayments of Consolidated Budget ...................... 28 Table 18: Yield Comparison with Peer Group Countries .................................................. 31 Table 19 : Developments in the Credit Rating of Turkey .................................................. 32 Table 20: Consolidated Budget Debt Stock ......................................................................... 33 Table 21: January-December Consolidated Budget Domestic Debt Stock Change........ 34 Table 22: October-December Consolidated Budget Domestic Debt Stock Change......... 34 Table 23: January-December Consolidated Budget Foreign Debt Stock Change ........... 35 Table 24: October-December Consolidated Budget Foreign Debt Stock Change ........... 35 Table 25: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock............................. 36 Table 26: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock............. 39 Table 27: Grants Awarded by Treasury in 2004................................................................. 44 Table 28: Grants Received by Treasury in 2004 ................................................................ 45 Table 29: Breakdown of the Grants Received and Used by Treasury in 2004................. 45 Table 30: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock ........................................................ 46 Table 31: Treasury Guaranteed Debt Issued in 2004 ......................................................... 49 iv Table 32: Risk Account ......................................................................................................... 51 Table 33: Treasury Receivables Stock ................................................................................. 57 Table 34: Breakdown of Treasury Receivables Stock by Sources..................................... 58 Table 35: Breakdown of Treasury Receivables Stock ........................................................ 60 Table 36: Outstanding Overdue Receivables ...................................................................... 60 Table 37: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables by Source ........................... 61 Table 38: The Stock of Projected Receivables..................................................................... 63 Table 39: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Source ................................................ 64 Table 40: Interest Composition of Projected Receivables .................................................. 65 Table 41: Breakdown of Collections by Borrower.............................................................. 66 Table 42: Breakdown of Collections by Source................................................................... 67 Table 43: Breakdown of Beneficiary Payments by Source ................................................ 67 Table 44: Breakdown of Collection by Type of Payment ................................................... 67 Table 45: Breakdown of Collection by Accounts ................................................................ 68 Table 46: Average Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock ........................................... 70 Table 47: Average Time to Maturity of External Bond Stock .......................................... 71 Table 48: Annual Compounded Real Interest of Total Domestic Debt Stock Jan.-Dec. 2004 ........................................................................................................................ 74 Table 49: Public Sector Net Debt Stock .............................................................................. 74 Table 50: Public Sector Net Debt Stock ............................................................................... 90 Table 51: FX and Interest Rate Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock ......... 91 Table 52: Holders of Consolidated Budget of Debt Stock ................................................. 92 Table 53: Domestic Debt Stock 1990-2004 .......................................................................... 93 Table 54: Outstanding External Debt By Borrower ........................................................... 94 Table 55: Outstanding External Debt By Lender ............................................................... 95 Table 56: Outstandig Bond Stock ......................................................................................... 96 Table 57: Exchange Rate Effect and Currency Composition of Outstanding External Debt.......................................................................................................................................... 97 Table 58: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock ........................................................ 99 Table 59: Payments Undertaken Due to Treasury Guarantees ....................................... 102 Table 60: Projects That Has Been Guaranteed By the Treasury .................................... 104 Table 61: The Stock of Receivables as of the end of 2004 ............................................... 105 Table 62: Outstanding Overdue Receivables..................................................................... 106 Table 63: Collections in 1997- 2004 ................................................................................... 107 v Table 64: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations ................................................. 109 Table 65: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations ................................................. 110 GRAPHS Graph 1: Breakdown of the Consolidated Budget Financing .............................................. 5 Graph 2: Domestic Debt Service in 2004 ............................................................................... 9 Graph 3: Breakdown of Domestic Borrowing by Issue Type in 2003 and 2004............... 10 Graph 4: Weighted Cumulative Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing Raised Through The Market ............................................................................................................. 11 Graph 5: Weighted Average Cost of Zero-Coupon TL-Denominated Domestic Borrowing ............................................................................................................................... 11 Graph 6: Weighted Average Cost of USD-Denominated Domestic Borrowing ............... 12 Graph 7: Interest Rates in the Secondary Markets of Government Securities ............... 13 Graph 8: Daily Data for the ISE Bonds and Bills Outright Purchases and Sales Market and Interest Rates Determined in Treasury Auctions ........................................................ 14 Graph 9: The Purchase Performance of Primary Dealers in the Auctions ...................... 15 Graph 10: Interest Rates and Total Transaction Volume in the Secondary Market for Government Securities........................................................................................................... 15 Graph 11: Percentage Distribution of Domestic Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts.................................................................................................................... 17 Graph 12: Percentage Distribution of Domestic FX Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts................................................................................................... 18 Graph 13: Risk Premiums Paid for International Bond Issuance..................................... 20 Graph 14: Repayments of Consolidated Budget External Debt in 2004........................... 27 Graph 15: Currency Composition of Repayments of Consolidated Budget..................... 29 Graph 16: Secondary Market Performance of USD Denominated Eurobonds ............... 30 Graph 17: Secondary Market Performance of Euro Denominated Eurobonds .............. 30 Graph 18: EMBI+ and EMBI+ Turkey Subindex .............................................................. 31 Graph 19: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock ........................... 37 Graph 20: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock .............................. 37 Graph 21: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget DomesticDebt Stock ........... 38 Graph 22: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock .............................. 38 vi Graph 23: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock ........... 40 Graph 24: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock .............. 40 Graph 25: Pre-Determined Domestic Debt Payments for 2005 ........................................ 41 Graph 26: TL/FX Composition of Pre-Determined Domestic Debt Payments for 2005 . 41 Graph 27: Projection of Consolidated Budget External Debt Repayments in 2005 ........ 42 Graph 28: Projection of Consolidated Budget External Debt Payment .......................... 43 Graph 29: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock by Lender.................................... 47 Graph 30: Institutional Breakdown of Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock ....................... 48 Graph 31: Institutional Breakdown of the Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock of the SOEs by the end of September 2004 ............................................................................................... 48 Graph 32: Institutional Breakdown of the Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock of the Local Administrations by the end of September 2004................................................................... 48 Graph 33: Currency and Interest Rate Composition ......................................................... 49 Graph 34: Treasury Guarantees By Lender........................................................................ 50 Graph 35: Proportion of Returns to Payments .................................................................. 52 Graph 36: Principal-Interest Breakdown of Projected Guaranteed Debt Service ......... 55 Graph 37: Guaranteed External Debt Servicing Projections by Budget Categories....... 56 Graph 38 :Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Budget Type ........................................... 58 Graph 39: Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Sources .................................................... 59 Graph 40: Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Institutions.............................................. 59 Graph 41: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock by Budget Type ..... 61 Graph 42: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock by Sources.............. 62 Graph 43: Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock .......................................................... 62 Graph 44: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Budget Type..................................... 63 Graph 45: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Source............................................... 64 Graph 46: Interest Composition of Projected Receivables ................................................ 65 Graph 47: Breakdown of Collections by Institutions ........................................................ 66 Graph 48: Duration of the TL-Denominated Cash Domestic Debt Stock ....................... 72 Graph 49: Duration of the External Bond Stock ............................................................... 73 Graph 50: Public Sector Net Debt Stock ............................................................................. 75 vii 1 1 CONSOLIDATED BUDGET In 2004, consolidated budget revenues were TL109.9 quadrillions, representing an increase by 18.7 percent in nominal and 7.3 percent in real terms over the 2003 figure. The ratio of the consolidated budget revenues to GNP has been 25.9 percent in 2004. Consolidated budget expenditures were TL140 quadrillions, representing an increase by 5.6 percent in nominal and a decrease by 4.6 percent in real terms over the 2003 figure. The ratio of budget expenditures to GNP has been 33.1 percent in 2004 (Table 1, Table 2). Table 1: Budget Realization CONSOLIDATED BUDGET REVENUES Tax Revenues Direct Taxes Indirect Taxes Other Non-Tax Revenues Capital Revenues Grants and Aid Collection of Receivables Annexed Budget Trillion TL Realization / Program (%) Trillion TL Realization / Program (%) GNP Ratios (%) October December 2004 October December 2004 January December 2004 January December 2004 2004 30,109 28.92 109,887 105.55 25.91 25,242 28.40 90,093 101.35 21.24 8,194 30.82 28,036 105.45 6.61 17,048 27.36 62,057 99.60 14.63 4,867 31.99 19,794 130.08 4.67 4,225 30.36 17,065 122.65 4.02 52 10.31 161 32.00 0.04 108 - 755 - 0.18 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 483 60.36 1,813 226.64 0.43 CONSOLIDATED BUDGET EXPENDITURES 39,342 26.24 140,200 93.50 33.06 PRIMARY EXPENDITURES 28,029 33.41 83,712 99.78 19.74 Personnel 6,994 24.49 28,948 101.36 6.83 Social Security Contributions 1,194 32.92 4,023 110.89 0.95 Purchase of Goods and Services 7,316 60.72 12,560 104.24 2.96 11,313 17.13 56,488 85.52 13.32 Interest Payments Domestic Debt 9,656 16.55 50,053 85.81 11.80 Foreign Debt 1,545 22.65 6,057 88.81 1.43 112 12.46 379 42.10 0.09 6,670 24.29 27,659 100.71 6.52 0.09 Discount and Short Term Cash Operations Current Transfers SEE Duty Losses Transfer to Social Security Institutions Agricultural Subsidies Other 90 25.94 381 109.38 4,413 22.67 18,893 97.06 4.45 376 11.70 3,079 95.77 0.73 1.25 1,790 40.37 5,306 119.64 Capital Expenses 4,737 73.92 7,972 124.40 1.88 Capital Transfers 265 65.59 437 108.14 0.10 Lending 852 25.57 2,075 62.32 0.49 0 0.00 37 1.81 0.01 BUDGET BALANCE -9,233 20.14 -30,313 66.13 -7.15 PRIMARY BALANCE 2,080 10.29 26,175 129.49 6.17 Contingencies GNP 424,129 Source: Public Accounts Bulletin, Ministry of Finance 1 As a result of the performance in revenues and the expenditures compared to the program figures, budget deficit has realized at TL30.3 quadrillions, which is lower than the program figure. In the period of January-December 2004, the primary surplus has reached TL26.2 quadrillions, which is over the program target by 29.5 percent (Table 1). While the interest expenditures have decreased by 12.8 percent, the non-interest expenditures have increased by 2 percent in real terms, in 2004. The increase in primary surplus has been 28.6 percent, compared to the same period of the last year (Table 2). In the last quarter of 2004, consolidated budget revenues and expenditures stood at TL30.1 quadrillions and the TL39.3 quadrillions, respectively. As a result of above mentioned developments on the revenues and expenditures, the consolidated budget deficit reached TL9.2 quadrillions. 27.4 percent of total revenues and 28.1 percent of total expenditures realized in the last quarter of 2004. The primary surplus of this quarter was TL2.1 quadrillions that was 10.3 percent of total primary surplus target (Table 1). In the last quarter of 2004, while the budget revenues increased by 3.7 percent, budget expenditures decreased by 2.7 percent in real terms over the figures of 2003. In the same period, whereas non-interest expenditures increased by 3 percent, interest expenditures decreased by 14.3 percent in real terms. As a result of the developments on the revenues and expenditures, the increase in primary surplus has realized 14 percent in real terms (Table 2). 2 Table 2: Budget Realization (Change, in trillion TL) October December 2003 * REVENUES Tax Revenues Non-Tax Revenues EXPENDITURES PRIMARY EXPENDITURES INTEREST EXPENDITURES PRIMARY BALANCE 26,476 22,147 4,328 36,855 24,811 12,044 1,665 January December 2003 * REVENUES Tax Revenues Non-Tax Revenues EXPENDITURES PRIMARY EXPENDITURES INTEREST EXPENDITURES 92,618 76,684 15,934 132,823 74,213 58,609 October December 2004 30,109 25,242 4,867 39,342 28,029 11,313 2,080 January December 2004 109,887 90,093 19,794 140,200 83,712 56,488 Nominal Change (%) 13.72 13.97 12.45 6.75 12.97 -6.07 24.95 Nominal Change (%) 18.65 17.49 24.22 5.55 12.80 -3.62 Real Change** (%) 3.71 3.94 2.54 -2.65 3.02 -14.34 13.95 Real Change *** (%) 7.29 6.24 12.33 -4.55 2.00 -12.84 PRIMARY BALANCE 18,405 26,175 42.22 28.61 (*) Tax rebates (except tax rebates for pensioners) of the year 2003 were substracted from both Revenues and Expenditures in order to harmonize those figures with 2004 Analytic Budget System. (**) Deflated by CPI. 9.66% October-December 2004 Average CPI Index / October-December 2003 Average CPI Index = (***) Deflated by CPI. 10.58% January-December 2004 Average CPI Index / January-December 2003 Average CPI Index = 3 Program Defined Primary Balance1 In 2004, the program defined primary balance increased by 24.1 percent compared to 2003 figure. Trillion TL 2003(*) 2004 100,250 1,242 39 0 0 175 109,887 3,540 0 0 1,116 250 2. Program Defined Consolidated Budget Revenues (1-a-b-c-d-e) 98,794 104,981 3. Consolidated Budget Primary Expenditures (Public Accounts Bulletin)(*) f. Risk Account (-) g. Difference of Cash Transfers to Social Security Institutions (+) 81,846 925 306 83,712 485 -54 4. Program Defined Consolidated Budget Primary Expenditures (3-f+g) 81,227 83,173 18,405 26,175 17,567 21,808 1. Consolidated Budget Revenues (Public Accounts Bulletin) a. Interest Receipts (-) b. Central Bank Profit & Revaluation (-) c. Privatization (-) d. Dividend Payments from State Banks (-) e. Carry Over from Special Revenues (-) Primary Balance (Public Accounts Bulletin) (1-3) Program Defined Primary Balance (2-4) (*) Final figures. NOT: In 2003, tax rebates are included in expenditures, and budget revenues are recorded on a gross basis. In 2004, tax rebates are deducted from revenues, in lieu of expenditures as in 2003, and recorded on a net basis. Therefore, a comparison has to be done between primary balances but not between revenues and expenditures of following years. In 2004, the financing requirement shrunk to TL30.4 quadrillions compared to its 2003 figure by TL43.1 quadrillions (Table 3). 1 For further information on the program defined primary balance see the Public Debt Management Report dated February 2004. 4 Table 3: Consolidated Budget Financing (in trillion TL) BUDGET BALANCE DEFERRED PAYMENTS OTHER DEFERRED PAYMENTS ADVANCES CASH BALANCE FINANCING BORROWING (Net) FOREIGN BORROWING (Net) Receipts Payments DOMESTIC BORROWING (Net) Receipts Payments G-BONDS (Net) Receipts Payments T-BILLS (Net) Receipts Payments RECEIPTS FROM ON-LENDING CURRENCY / DEPOSIT AND OTHER TRANSACTIONS 2003 2004 -40,204 -30,313 -247 -786 -1,839 -170 2,940 -2,874 -43,076 -30,418 43,076 30,418 44,304 1,420 11,907 -10,486 42,884 148,762 -105,878 54,856 93,064 -38,208 -11,973 55,697 -67,670 1,264 -2,492 33,831 3,072 12,876 -9,804 30,759 158,114 -127,355 25,900 96,536 -70,636 4,859 61,578 -56,719 943 -4,356 Although the share of the foreign borrowing in the budget financing has increased to 10.1 percent in 2004 from 3.3 percent in 2003, the main financing source has been the domestic borrowing by 101.1 percent, in 2004 (Graph 1). Graph 1: Breakdown of the Consolidated Budget Financing (in percent) 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 2003 -40.00 Foreign Borrow ing G-Bonds 2004 T-Bills Receipts f rom On-Lending 5 Currency / Deposit and Other Transactions 2 DEBT MANAGEMENT 2.1 BORROWING LIMIT The annual borrowing limit is defined as the difference between the total initial appropriations and the estimated revenues indicated in the budget law (Article 5 of Law no. 4749 pertaining to “Public Financing and Debt Management”). For the year 2004, a net borrowing limit of TL45.8 quadrillion TL was ascertained (Table 4). Table 4: 2004 Net Borrowing Limit (Quadrillion TL) Estimated Budget Incomes Initial Budget Appropriations Borrowing Limit 104.1 149.9 45.8 In 2004, net domestic borrowing and net external borrowing reached TL30.8 quadrillion and TL3.1 quadrillion, respectively, amounting a total net borrowing of TL33.8 quadrillion. As a result, total net borrowing realized under the borrowing limit (Table 5). In this period, the falling of borrowing interest rates, the lengthening of borrowing maturities, and the declining of foreign exchange rates reduced cash interest payments with regard to expectations and in this context, borrowing requirement realized under the borrowing estimations held at the beginning of the year. Table 5: 2004 Net Borrowing (Quadrillion TL) Net Borrowing Net Domestic Borrowing Borrowing Re-Payment Net External Borrowing Borrowing Re-Payment 6 33.8 30.8 158.1 127.4 3.1 12.9 9.8 2.2 DOMESTIC DEBT MARKETS 2.2.1 DOMESTIC BORROWING In the period of October–December 2004, an amount of TL43.6 quadrillion domestic borrowing was realized, thus a total of TL160.4 quadrillion domestic borrowing was undertaken for the entire year of 2004. TL148.6 quadrillion (93 percent) of domestic borrowing was comprised of borrowing through auctions and direct sales in 2004 (Table 6). Table 6: Domestic Borrowing (Trillion TL) (*) 155,879.0 117,704.4 17,063.8 7,250.3 5,989.2 7,075.0 796.3 Jan-March 41,968.1 38,035.0 0.0 1,516.1 2,417.0 0.0 0.0 April-June 33,746.3 29,757.7 0.0 2,184.8 1,803.8 0.0 0.0 2004 July-Sept 41,091.7 40,329.0 0.0 762.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Oct-Dec 43,618.6 40,501.8 0.0 775.9 0.0 2,340.9 0.0 Jan-Dec 160,424.7 148,623.4 0.0 5,239.6 4,220.8 2,340.9 0.0 148,804.0 41,968.1 33,746.3 41,091.7 41,277.7 158,083.8 2003 DOMESTIC BORROWING (**) Auction, TAP, Public Offer, Direct Placement Cumposury Saving Scheme Switching Auctions+Post auction Switchng Restructuring of Securities Issued to Public Banks Private Placement Onlent Private Placement For Info: Borrowing excluding Private Placement Onlent (*) Provisional (**) Excluding FX Differences. In the year 2004, a total amount of TL5.2 quadrillion of government bonds issued through swap auctions and post-auction switching transactions, and TL775.9 trillion of this amount was realized in the period October – December (Table 6). In the last quarter of 2004, there was not any domestic bond issued for the purpose of restructuring the securities held by public banks. In 2004, total amount of securities issued for this purpose has been TL4.2 quadrillion. In October 2004, a private placement was on-lent to Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF) in an amount of TL2.3 quadrillion for the transfer of Pamukbank to Halkbank, while no private placement securities were issued in 2004. 2.2.2 DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICE In the period of October – December 2004, TL44 quadrillion of domestic debt payment was realized. Within this total, the principal and interest payments has been TL34.3 quadrillion and TL9.6 quadrillion respectively. An amount of TL35.7 quadrillion of domestic debt payment consisted of repayments of borrowings through auctions, TAP, public offerings and direct sales; TL1,2 quadrillion consisted 7 of early redemptions to Compulsory Savings Fund (CSF); TL0.8 quadrillion consisted of swap transactions; and the rest consisted of payments for government bonds issued as private placement(Table 7). Table 7: Domestic Debt Service (Trillion TL) 107,072.8 81,804.1 10,914.6 5,125.4 3,303.4 2,956.3 2,969.1 Jan-March 31,527.0 26,986.4 930.8 1,375.5 1,671.9 531.1 31.3 April-June 29,632.0 23,692.6 1,010.9 1,718.4 1,319.0 764.0 1,127.1 2004 July-Sept 33,805.1 31,531.2 965.8 697.4 0.0 610.7 0.0 Oct-Dec 34,307.7 28,262.2 959.7 712.2 0.0 4,373.6 0.0 Jan-Dec 129,271.9 110,472.3 3,867.2 4,503.6 2,991.0 6,279.3 1,158.4 105,855.1 31,427.0 27,785.1 33,805.1 34,307.7 127,324.9 DOMESTIC DEBT INTEREST PAYMENT (***) Auction, TAP, Public Offer, Direct Placement Cumposury Saving Scheme Switching Auctions+Post auction Switchng Restructuring of Securities Issued to Public Banks Private Placement Onlent Private Placement 52,636.0 25,219.1 4,002.2 2,124.9 2,685.9 1,295.5 17,308.4 13,039.8 9,551.2 124.2 197.0 745.1 273.9 2,148.4 13,393.6 9,282.3 169.1 421.7 484.8 683.4 2,352.3 13,972.0 11,188.9 184.2 61.6 0.0 445.7 2,091.6 9,647.5 7,481.5 250.3 62.7 0.0 146.9 1,706.1 50,052.9 37,504.0 727.8 743.0 1,229.8 1,549.9 8,298.3 TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT SERVICE Auction, TAP, Public Offer, Direct Placement Cumposury Saving Scheme Switching Auctions+Post auction Switchng Restructuring of Securities Issued to Public Banks Private Placement Onlent Private Placement 159,708.8 107,023.2 14,916.8 7,250.3 5,989.2 4,251.8 20,277.5 44,566.8 36,537.6 1,055.0 1,572.6 2,417.0 805.0 2,179.6 43,025.6 32,974.9 1,180.0 2,140.1 1,803.8 1,447.4 3,479.4 47,777.1 42,720.1 1,150.0 759.0 0.0 1,056.4 2,091.6 43,955.2 35,743.7 1,210.0 774.9 0.0 4,520.4 1,706.1 179,324.7 147,976.3 4,595.1 5,246.7 4,220.8 7,829.2 9,456.7 2003 DOMESTIC DEBT PRINCIPAL PAYMENT Auction, TAP, Public Offer, Direct Placement Cumposury Saving Scheme Switching Auctions+Post auction Switchng Restructuring of Securities Issued to Public Banks Private Placement Onlent Private Placement For Info: Borrowing excluding Private Placement Onlent (*) Provisional (**) Include the bond remittance of TL100 trillion of SDIF in January 2004 and TL1.85 quadrillion of Ziraat Bank in June 2004. These amounts can not be seen in budget figures. (***) Because of the periodical differences in the accounting records, principal payments may show differences from the figures at Table-3. (****) Excluding General and Discount Expenses. In 2004, TL179.3 quadrillion of domestic debt service was realized. Of this, TL129.3 quadrillion consisted of principal and TL50.1 quadrillion of interest payments. Hence, due to the decrease in interest rates, the share of interest payments in domestic debt service has fallen from 33 percent in 2003 to 28 percent in 2004 (Graph 2, Table 7). 8 Graph 2: Domestic Debt Service in 2004 Interest 28% Principal 72% 2.2.3 CURRENCY, INTEREST-TYPE AND MATURITY STRUCTURE OF DOMESTIC BORROWING In 2004, the shares of fixed and floating rate securities in total borrowing through direct sales and auctions, has been 84 percent and 16 percent respectively. While 90.3 percent of the total amount of borrowing via direct sales and auctions consisted of TL-denominated borrowing, the share of foreign exchange denominated borrowing was 9.7 percent (Table 8). During the last quarter of 2004, the shares of fixed and floating rate securities in total borrowing via direct sales and auctions, has been 92.1 percent and 7.9 percent respectively. While 83.2 percent of the borrowing via direct sales and auctions in this period has been TL-denominated, 16.8 percent consisted of foreign exchangedenominated borrowings. Table 8: Currency and Interest Rate Composition of Domestic Market Borrowing (%) 2003 Fixed Rate Jan-March 2004 July-Sept April-June Oct-Dec Jan-Dec 94.0 75.4 88.3 81.1 92.1 84.0 6.0 24.6 11.7 18.9 7.9 16.0 TL Denominated 87.2 94.3 98.2 87.7 83.2 90.3 FX Denominated 12.8 5.7 1.8 12.3 16.8 9.7 Floating Rate 9 In 2004, a large amount (76 percent) of domestic borrowing via auctions and direct sales consisted of TL-denominated discounted bonds auctions. The share of floating rate securities in total domestic borrowing from the market, increased to 11.2 percent in 2004, from its 5.9 percent level in 2003. The share of fixed coupon bonds remained at 3 percent in 2004 (Graph 3). Graph 3: Breakdown of Domestic Borrowing by Issue Type in 2003 and 2004 (*) 2003 Direct Sales 2.0% Fixed-Coupon TL Auctions 2.5% FX-Denominated Fixed RateAuctions 11.6% TAP Sales 0.5% Floating Rate Note Auctions 5.9% Zero-coupon TL Auctions 77.5% 2004 Direct Sales 2.0% Fixed-Coupon TL Auctions 2.6% Floating Rate Note Auctions 11.2% FX-Denominated Fixed RateAuctions 3.7% Fx Denominated Flaoting Rate Auctions 4.4% Zero-coupon TL Auctions 76.1% (*) Excluding switching auctions and post-auction switching Compared to 2003, the average maturity of domestic cash borrowing has been lengthened significantly and reached a level of 14.7 months (Graph 4). Most influential effects in maturity lengthening were the issuance of TL-denominated zero coupon bonds with a maturity of 17 months and more, and the issuance of TL denominated floating rate bonds with a maturity of 2 years. In addition to this, during the year, USD-denominated floating rate bonds with a maturity of 3 years 10 were issued, and for the first time in October, TL-denominated fixed coupon bond with a maturity of 3 years were issued. Graph 4: Weighted Cumulative Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing Raised Through The Market 24 2004 (annual average: 14,7 months) 21 18 Month 15 12 9 2003 (annual average: 11,5 months) 6 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 9.5 9.4 9.9 8.6 10.8 12.7 9.5 11.0 18.3 13.3 11.9 15.9 2004 14.8 13.4 16.0 13.1 9.4 14.5 13.1 14.0 14.8 18.6 12.1 20.2 Compared to 2003, the cost of domestic borrowing has decreased to almost half of its previous value in 2004. In the year 2004, the cost of TL-denominated zero coupon bonds which made up three-fourth of the total borrowings from the market, was realized at about 24.7 percent in average terms (Graph 5). Graph 5: Weighted Average Cost of Zero-Coupon TL-Denominated Domestic Borrowing Compound Interest (%) 70 60 50 2003 (Annual Avg: 45,5) 40 30 20 10 2004 (3 Month Avg: 24,7) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 56.8 55.3 59.9 57.5 51.1 46.0 46.2 38.7 32.2 29.3 28.6 27.9 2004 25.5 24.0 24.4 23.2 28.8 27.5 26.3 24.9 25.4 22.8 22.9 23.1 11 Parallel to the cost of TL-denominated bonds, the average cost of dollar denominated domestic bonds has decreased by 1 percentage point and reached a level of 4.5 percent in the year of 2004 compared to 2003 (Graph 6). Graph 6: Quarterly Weighted Average Cost of USD-Denominated Domestic Borrowing2 Conpounded Interest (%) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 03 20 2.2.4 1 Q 03 20 2 Q 03 20 3 Q 03 20 4 Q 04 20 1 Q 04 20 2 Q 04 20 3 Q 04 20 4 Q SECONDARY BOND MARKETS Even if the interest rate of Domestic Government Bonds on the secondary bond markets fluctuated due to developments in foreign markets from time to time, it showed a declining trend in overall in year 2004. Within the framework of current economic program there had been positive improvements in macro economic indicators and the decline in rates of inflation. As a result of these developments, the Central Bank had reduced short-term interest rate for four times (Graph 7). 2 Since the dolar denominated domestic bond issues are not held monthly, the graph is presented in quarterly basis. 12 Graph 7: Interest Rates in the Secondary Markets of Government Securities (*) 32.00 30.00 28.00 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 Interest Rates in Secondary Markets 16 /1 2/ 04 18 /1 1/ 04 18 /1 0/ 04 20 /0 9/ 04 20 /0 8/ 04 23 /0 7/ 04 25 /0 6/ 04 28 /0 5/ 04 29 /0 4/ 04 31 /0 3/ 04 03 /0 3/ 04 30 /0 1/ 04 02 /0 1/ 04 18.00 CBT O/N Rate (*) Based on the interest rate of the most traded securities When the developments related to interest rate of Domestic Government Bonds in the last quarter of 2004 was examined, it could be seen that in October the most traded Domestic Government Bonds’ rates declined from 24.4 percent at beginning of the month to 22.5 percent at the end of the month. The effect of the European Commission report which was issued on October 6th, the positive expectations on the maintenance of the fiscal discipline in the upcoming period and possible agreement on the “Stand By” arrangement with IMF were main essentials in this decline. In November, the most traded Domestic Government Bonds’ interest rates followed flat movement within the 22-24 percent interval. In December, the announcement regarding the agreement with IMF on the new program and the stand-by arrangement was evaluated positively by markets. In addition to this, after the decision that Turkey would start full membership negotiations with EU at December 17 summit, the Central Bank made last interest rate reduction of the year and the most traded Domestic Government Bond’s annual compounded interest rate declined to %20.3 at the end of the year. As a result of the economic developments, secondary markets’ trade volume increased. The average daily trade volume on net basis in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Outright Purchases and Sales market, which was TL852 trillion (580 million USD) in 2003, increased to TL1.5 quadrillion (1 billion USD) in 2004 (Graph 8). 13 On the ISE Repo-Reverse Repo market the net based daily average trade volume, which used to be TL4.2 quadrillion in 2003, was realized as TL6.2 quadrillion, by showing an increase of 48 percent. This was accepted as a sign of increasing market liquidity parallel to the positive economic developments. Graph 8: Daily Data for the ISE Bonds and Bills Outright Purchases and Sales Market and Interest Rates Determined in Treasury Auctions(*) 32 3,500 3,000 2,500 28 2,000 26 1,500 24 Trillion TL Annual Compounded Rate % 30 1,000 22 500 Secondary Markets Interest Rates 04 04 D ec 14 04 N ov 24 02 N ov 04 04 O ct 12 04 Se p 22 04 Se p 02 04 A ug 12 23 Ju l 04 04 Ju l 05 Ju n 04 ISE Net Trade Volume 15 04 M ay 26 05 M ay 04 A pr 14 25 M ar 04 M ar 05 04 Fe b 16 04 Ja n Ja n 22 02 04 04 20 Treasury Auction Rates (*) Excluding 3 month T-bill reference auctions and including fixed rate TL denominated security auctions. Within the framework of Primary Dealership System which is being implemented since 2002 September, efficiency in the issuance of domestic government bonds was increased, liquidity increase on the secondary market was achieved, volatility on the market was reduced. While the Primary Dealer banks’ purchases in the auctions were around 70 percent before the Primary Dealership System, these banks’ purchases in the auctions increased to 80 percent during the Primary Dealership period and it was realized as 92 percent average in 20043 (Graph 9). 3 The detailed information regarding Primary Dealership System can be found in the Public Debt Management Report, November 2004. 14 Graph 9: The Purchase Performance of Primary Dealers in the Auctions 100 97,3 95 Pre Primary Dealership Period 91,5 89,5 90 86,4 91,4 87,6 92,8 85,5 91,4 87,4 88,5 88,4 87,0 85 92,2 90,2 93,9 90,8 86,7 94,5 93,9 88,5 86,4 81,4 % 80 81,1 74,1 75 69,1 70 80,0 79,8 76,5 72,6 71,5 84,4 71,5 69,6 66,2 67,9 65 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D0 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 Note: Including 3 month reference T-bill auctions, excluding Non-competitive bids and After Auction Bids. Since the launching of Primary Dealership System, it was observed that trading volume of Domestic Government Bonds had an increasing trend in the secondary markets (Graph 10). Graph 10: Interest Rates and Total Transaction Volume in the Secondary Market for Government Securities Trillion TL % 3,800 73 3,400 68 3,000 63 58 2,600 53 2,200 48 1,800 43 1,400 38 33 1,000 28 600 Daily Volume (Left Axis) Avr. Comp. Yield of Benchmark Sec. (Right Axis) 15 18 December-04 October-04 November-04 September-04 September-04 July-04 August-04 May-04 June-04 April-04 March-04 January-04 February-04 December-03 October-03 November-03 September-03 July-03 August-03 May-03 June-03 April-03 March-03 January-03 February-03 December-02 October-02 October-02 September-02 November-02 23 200 Aylık Ortalama İşlem Hacmi (Sol Eksen) The share of domestic debt stock held by non-bank sector in total market domestic stock has increased by 2.9 percentage points as of the end of 2004, compared to the 2003 year end figure. In this period, the share of non-financial corporate sector has increased by 2.5 percentage points; while retail investors’ share has decreased by 3.9 percentage points. Gradual increases in quarterly periods have been observed throughout 2004 and the share of the stock held by non-residents has reached 8.8 percent level by the end of 2004 with a 4.3 percentage points increase compared to the end of 2003 (Table 9). Table 9: The Composition of Domestic Debt Stock Held by the Market (*) (%) Banking Sector 1 Non Bank Sector Retail Investors Corporate Investors Non Residents 2 Securities Mutual Funds3 Total (Quadrillion TL) 4,5 Market Value of Securities in the Market (Quadrillion TL) 5 Principal Value of Securities in the Market (Quadrillion TL) Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 48.0 49.0 44.9 45.8 Dec-04 45.2 41.2 26.6 10.1 39.8 24.6 9.9 44.8 27.5 11.3 44.2 25.5 11.1 44.1 22.6 12.6 4.5 5.3 6.1 7.5 8.8 10.8 11.2 10.2 10.0 10.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 119.4 134.7 139.5 147.1 153.5 101.8 119.2 125.7 135.4 141.1 (*) Provisional. For Domestic Debt Stock held by the market, issuance data is used. Datas related to non-bank sector and mutual funds, are provided by CBT. 1) Non-bank sector includes legal entities except SDIF, CSF and Unemployment Fund. 2) Based on the reports of the banks who give custody services to non-residents. 3) From March 5, 2004, the custody accounts of mutual funds at ISE Settlement and Custody Bank Inc. are based on calculation. Before this date, the related data is collected from Capital Markets Board sources. 4) Market value of the market securities based on Official Gazette prices. 5) Securities of TL6,7 quadrillion issued to SDIF for the deposits at Imar Bank are followed in securities in the market since January, 2004. As of the end of 2004, in terms of the term structure of domestic debt securities held by retail investors in bank accounts, it can be seen that longer term TL securities have started to be preferred by investors, and the share of securities with maturities longer than one year has increased considerably. In 2003, the share of securities with 1-2 year maturities had an increase by 17.5 percentage points; while this increase was 1.4 percentage points for securities with maturities of longer than two years, after the 3 year fixed coupon bond issuance in October (Table 10, Graph 11). 16 Table 10: Maturity Composition of Domestic Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts (*) TL Securities 0-1 Month Percent Share 26-Dec-03 26-Mar-04 25-Jun-04 24-Sep-04 31-Dec-04 2.6 8.8 13.6 4.9 9.5 1-3 Month 33.3 20.9 23.3 27.6 13.2 3-6 Month 21.9 28.4 22.9 19.9 18.4 FX Denominated Securities 6-12 Month 32.3 25.7 24.3 23.6 30.0 1-2Year 9.6 15.8 15.9 24.0 27.1 2 Year + 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 0-1 Month 1-3 Month 3-6 Month6-12 Month 27.3 13.1 0.0 21.6 0.0 20.4 22.9 9.8 0.0 24.1 1.0 36.9 0.0 1.0 13.1 75.1 0.0 9.1 24.5 56.6 1-2Year 38.0 46.4 37.3 7.8 2.3 2 Year + 0.0 0.5 0.7 2.9 7.5 (*) Provisional. The maturity structures have been calculated for TL and FX securities seperately and maturities are calculated according to day to maturities. Nominal values of the securities have been used. Note: Domestic and foreign branches have been consolidated. Source: BRSA Graph 11: Percentage Distribution of Domestic Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts 13.2 9.5 1-Dec-04 4.9 1-Sep-04 18.4 27.6 13.6 1-Jun-04 0 23.6 22.9 20.9 1-Dec-03 2.6 20 25.7 40 0.0 24.0 21.9 30 1.8 15.9 0.0 15.8 0.4 24.3 28.4 33.3 10 27.1 19.9 23.3 8.8 1-Mar-04 30.0 32.3 50 60 70 9.6 80 90 0.4 100 % 0-1 Month 1-3 Month 3-6Month 6-12 Month 1-2 Year 2 Year + On the other hand, parallel to the lengthening of overall borrowing maturities the maturity profile of domestically issued FX securities has also shifted towards longer maturities. The share of FX denominated debt securities with maturities of less than one month has come down to zero as of the end of 2004; compared to its 27.3 percent level at 2003 year end. Besides, the share of domestically issued FX securities with maturities of longer than 2 years, owned by retail investors has gone up to 7.5 percent by the end of 2004 after the 3 year USD denominated variable rate bond issuances in March, August and November, while this figure was almost zero by the end of December 2003 (Graph 12). 17 Graph 12: Percentage Distribution of Domestic FX Debt Securities Held by Retail Investors in Bank Accounts 9.1 1-Dec-04 24.5 56.6 13.1 1-Sep-04 2.3 75.1 7.8 7.5 2.9 1.0 24.1 1-Jun-04 36.9 0.7 37.3 1.0 20.4 1-Mar-04 22.9 27.3 1-Dec-03 0 9.8 13.1 20 0.5 46.4 21.6 38.0 40 60 0.0 80 100 % 0-1 Month 1-3 Month 3-6Month 6-12 Month 1-2 Year 2 Year + 2.3 EXTERNAL DEBT MARKETS The external borrowing performed for program financing in the consolidated budget reached USD5.8 billion in the year of 2004. At the same period, USD2.1 billion total drawing amount that provided from sources of international institutions was performed for the aim of program financing. In terms of project financing, USD1.9 billion was drawn in 2003 while USD2 billion was through in 2004. The drawing amounts for 2004 was provisional because of the delay on getting data from the related institutions. So, the released figure for the year of 2004 does not contain entire drawing information (Table 11). Table 11: External Debt Disbursements for Consolidated Budget (*) USD Million (1) 2004 Apr-Jun Jul-Sep 2003 Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Oct-Dec Jan-Dec Total Program Financing Bond Issuance International Institutional 8.861 6.953 5.273 1.680 3.048 2.755 2.755 .. 2.058 1.725 750 975 2.445 1.907 745 1.162 2.316 1.500 1.500 .. 9.866 7.887 5.750 2.137 Project Financing (2) 1.908 293 333 538 815 1.979 (*) The credit agreements which were signutered before but the actual drawings performed after January 2005 were not taken into consideration. (1) The amounts were converted into dollars on the basis of the Central Bank of Turkey exchange rates dated as transaction bases. (2) Some part of drawings of consolidated budget in 2004 has not recorded into the accounting system yet. 18 2.4.1 PROGRAM FINANCING 2.4.1.1 International Capital Markets In 2004, approximately USD5.75 billion of external debt was raised from international capital markets through bond issuances. Throughout 2004, a borrowing strategy that is considerate of the cost and risk conditions of the portfolio was followed while developments in international capital markets were monitored closely (Table 12). Table 12: Eurobond Issuance In 2004 Yield-to-Investor 14.01.2004 Maturity (year) 30+ 1 m Amount (million) 1.500 USD Coupon (%) 8,000 10.02.2004 10 1.000 EUR 6,500 Issue Date Currency (%) Spread 8,230 UST + 316 6,625 Bund + 246 24.06.2004 7 750 USD 9,000 9,250 UST + 493 21.09.2004 5 600 EUR 5,500 5,750 Bund + 238 07.10.2004 10+ 5 m 1.000 USD 7,250 7,450 UST + 333 24.11.2004 (*) 10+ 4 m 500 USD 7,250 6,974 UST + 286 5.750 USD 2004 Total (**) UST : United States Treasury bond yield Bund : German Treasury Bond yield bp : Basis point (100 bp = 1%) (*) Reopening of the bond issued on Oct 7, 2004. (**) As of issue date cross rates 65% of the bonds issued in 2004 was USD denominated and the remaining 35% was denominated in Euro. The average maturity of USD denominated bond issues, which stood at 8.6 years in 2003, increased to 17.6 years in 2004. The average maturity of Euro denominated bond issues, on the other hand, rose by two years to 8.2 years compared to that of the previous year. In terms of average borrowing costs, external debt was raised with lower costs in 2004 compared to the previous year. Average borrowing costs of Dollar and Euro denominated debt which were 10.1% and 9.9% in 2003, decreased to 8.1% and 6.3% respectively in 2004. Examining the risk premiums paid for international bond issues, it is noted that the risk premium paid for the 10 year Euro denominated bonds posted a level of 19 246 basis points, while the premium on the USD denominated bonds with the same maturity stood at 333 basis points in 2004 (Graph 13). Graph 13: Risk Premiums Paid for International Bond Issuance (bp) 800 700 672 662 642 600 550 493 500 400 333 300 246 238 200 100 0 Euro 5 yıl Euro 7-10 yıl USD 6-7 yıl 2003 USD 10 yıl 2004 While compared to the peer group countries in 2004, which have the same rating and borrow in the similar frequency from the markets, it can be said that Turkey has borrowed under more favorable terms and conditions. In the same period, Turkey has become the second largest issuer after Mexico, with 15,6% share of total bonds issued. In this respect, among the leading emerging market countries, Turkey has been able to preserve its share in international markets for the last three years in terms of total issuance. Leading Emerging Market Countries’ Eurobond Issuances (1995 - 2004) (billion USD) Argentina Mexico Brazil Turkey Russia Colombia Philippines Venezuela Poland South Africa Panama Ukraine Peru Total Turkey's Share (%) 1995 4,4 4,8 1,6 2,5 0 0,5 0 0,4 0,3 0,3 0 0 0 14,8 16,9 1996 9,9 13,5 1,3 2,8 1,0 1,3 1,1 0,4 0,2 0,8 0 0 0 32,3 8,7 1997 10,2 7,2 4,9 2,9 3,2 1,0 0 4,3 0,4 0,8 1,2 0 0 36,1 8,0 1998 10,6 1,5 2,7 2,7 11,7 1,4 0,5 0,5 0 0 0,3 0,6 0 32,5 8,3 1999 11,6 3,6 4,7 5,0 0 1,5 2,9 0,2 0 1,3 0,5 0,3 0 31,6 15,8 20 2000 9,2 4,9 6,8 7,5 0 1,5 1,7 0,5 0,6 0,8 0,4 1,1 0 35,0 21,4 2001 2,1 4,7 6,7 2,2 0 4,2 0,6 1,2 0,9 0,9 1,2 0 0 24,7 8,9 2002 0 4,0 3,9 3,3 0 1,0 2,9 0 2,7 1,3 0,6 0,4 1,9 22,0 15,0 2003 0 7,4 5,8 5,3 0 1,0 3,2 3,7 4,3 1,4 0,3 1,0 1,3 34,7 15,3 2004 0 7,7 5,7 5,8 0 1,4 4,1 4,0 3,7 1,0 1,2 1,1 1,3 37,0 15,6 Total 58,1 59,3 44,1 40,0 15,9 14,8 17,0 15,2 13,1 8,6 5,7 4,5 4,5 300,8 13,3 Leading Emerging Market Countries’ Eurobond Issuances (billion USD) 40 36,1 35 35,0 32,5 32,3 34,7 37,0 31,6 30 24,7 25 22,0 20 15 14,8 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Turkey’s Share in Leading Emerging Market Countries’ Eurobond Issuances (%) 25 21,4 20 16,9 15,8 15,0 15,3 15,6 2002 2003 2004 15 10 8,7 8,0 8,3 1996 1997 1998 8,9 5 0 1995 1999 2000 2001 2.4.1.2 International Institutions Under the ongoing program, the Undersecretariat of Treasury disbursed a total of USD1.2 billion for budget financing from the IMF in the second and third quarters of 2004. In teh same year, the debt service to the IMF by Treasury amounted to USD4.7 billion, of which USD3.7 billion was principal and USD936 million was interest. USD3.5 billion of the principal and USD151 million of the interest is due to the IMF credit on lent by the Central Bank of Turkey to the Treasury. The Central Bank of Turkey’s debt service to the IMF during the same period was around USD1 billion (USD992 million principal and USD31 million interests). 21 Taking into consideration the payments made by the Central Bank of Turkey, the total amount paid to the IMF in 2004 was USD5.7 billion, of which about USD4.7 billion was principal and USD967 million was interest. Hence, net repayment to the IMF in 2004 was around USD4.5 billion. International Monetary Fund Disbursements and Repayments Million SDR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Jan-Mar 2004 Apr-Jun 2004 Jul-Sept 2004 Oct-Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 I. Disbursement (*) 583 2.622 8.895 9.929 1.191 .. 340 454 .. 794 II. Debt Service (*) 218 106 1.207 5.544 1.863 943 936,6 958,6 967 3.805 210 66 868 4.916 1.224 790 790 790 790 3.158 8 40 339 628 639 154 147 169 178 647 III. Net Financing (I-II) 365 2.516 7.688 4.385 -672 -943 -596,6 -504,6 -967 -3.011 Net Financing excluding Interest 373 2.556 8.027 5.013 -33 -789,6 -449,6 -335,6 -790 -2.364 Principal Interest (**) Including the total amount used by the Undersecretariat of Treasury and the Central Bank Million USD (*) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Jan-Mar 2004 Apr-Jun 2004 Jul-Sept 2004 Oct-Dec 2004 Jan-Dec 2004 I. Disbursement (*) 799 3.415 11.184 0 1.770 .. 498 672 0 1.170 II. Debt Service (*) 299 138 1.518 0 2.769 1.396 1.372 1.409 1.502 5.679 288 86 1.091 0 1.819 1.169 1.157 1.160 1.226 4.712 11 52 426 0 950 227 215 248 276 967 III. Net Financing (I-II) 500 3.277 9.666 0 -999 -1.396 -874 -736 -1.502 -4.509 Net Financing excluding Interest 511 3.329 10.092 0 -49 -1.169 -658 -488 -1.226 -3.542 Principal Interest (*) On the basis of end period exchange r (**) Including the total amount used by the Undersecretariat of Treasury and the Central Bank In 2004 program financing amounting USD975 has been received from the World Bank. The breakdown of the aforesaid financing is as follows: USD375 million for Economic Reform Credit, USD100 million for Agricultural Reform Implementation Project (ARIP) and USD500 million for Programmatic Financial and Public Sector Adjustment Loan (PFPSAL-III). 22 Table 13: Disbursements of World Bank Credits USD Million 2004 JanuaryMarch Economic Reform Credit ARIP PFPSAL-III Total .. .. .. .. AprilJulyJune September 375 100 .. 475 .. .. 500 500 OcoberDecember JanuaryDecember .. .. .. .. 375 100 500 975 In this way, in year 2004, total use of external resources from international institutions for budget financing amounted to USD2.1 billion, of which USD1.2 billion was borrowed from International Monetary Fund and USD975 milion was borrowed from World Bank. 2.4.2 PROJECT FINANCING In 2004, USD1.5 billion, USD436 million and USD28 million had been disbursed in services, industry and agriculture sectors respectively. Thus, 76 %, 22 % and 1,4 % of total disbursements had been made in services, industry and agriculture sectors (Table 14) . Between October and December 2004 a sum of USD815 million had been disbursed from the project loans that were provided by the Undersecretariat of Treasury as the borrower, to finance central government budget. Of this amount USD612 million, USD196 million and USD7 million had been disbursed services, industry and agriculture sectors respectively (Table 14). In the same period the largest amount of disbursement in services sector reached to USD72 million for the mid-term financing of the Small and Medium Term Enterprises (SMEs). Almost all of the disbursements in the industry sector were made in the energy sector. The largest amount in the agricultural sector had disbursed from the World Bank Loan which was borrowed to finance Agricultural Reform Implementation Project and Direct Income Support to farmers. 23 Table 14: Distribution of Project Credits by Sector USD Million (*) Percentage (%) 2004 Total Service Sector Industry Sector Agriculture Sector 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec 293 205 74 13 333 223 110 .. 496 434 55 7 815 612 196 7 1.937 1.474 435 28 100 70 25 5 100 67 33 .. 101 87,5 11,0 1,5 100 75,1 24,1 0,9 100 76,1 22,5 1,4 (*) At USD/TRL rates as of transaction dates. The breakdown of total disbursements in 2004 consists of the loans in amounts of USD1.3 billion, USD462 million and USD3 million from monetary institutions, international institutions, governmental institutions and non-monetary institutions respectively (Table 15). In the last quarter of 2004, totally USD815 million was disbursed for project financing by Treasury as a borrower within the context of consolidated budget. Of this amount, USD612 million were allocated to service sector, USD196 million to industry sector and USD7 million to agriculture sector (Table 14). At the same period, the service sector with the aim of the medium term financing of the SMEs was listed as the highest amount project credit with USD72 million. In the ındustry sector, approximatelly all of the drawings was done for the energy sector. The highest amount in the agriculture sector was allocated from the IBRD credit for the aim of The Agricultural Reform Implementation Project and farmers’ direct incomes support (Table 15). Table 15: Distribution of External Project Credits Disbursements by Lenders USD Million (*) 2004 Total Government Institutions (1) Monetary Institutions Non Monetary Institutions International Institutions Percentage (%) 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec 293 333 496 815 1.937 68 23 32 74 197 100 23 100 5 100 6,5 100 9,1 100 10,2 135 .. 90 221 3 86 381 0 83 539 .. 202 1.275 3 462 46 .. 31 51 1 43 76,7 0,0 16,8 66,2 .. 24,7 65,8 0,2 23,8 (*) At USD/TRL rates as of transaction dates. (1) Commercial Banks and Non Banking Financial Institutions 24 Disbursements of Other Public Sector from External Project Loans In 2004, disbursements from the other public sector’s external project loans amounted to USD819 million. The breakdown of this amount by the disbursing agencies is as follows: USD415 million, USD313 million, USD89 million and USD2 million have been disbursed by Development and Investment Banks, non-financial SEEs, local administrations and by extra budgetary funds respectively. The largest disbursement in the non-consolidated other public sector had been realized in the first quarter of 2004 with an amount of USD253 million. Between October and December 2004 disbursements in the other public sectors out of central government budget had totalled USD149 million. The biggest share belongs to Development and Investment Banks with 77% while the smallest share belongs to local administrations with 1 % of the above-mentioned amount. USD Million (*) 2004 Total Extra Budgetary Funds Non Financial SOEs T. Development and Investment Banks Local Administrations Percentage (%) 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec 253 194 223 149 819 1 167 47 38 1 69 80 44 .. 45 172 6 .. 32 115 2 2 313 415 89 (*) At USD/TRL rates as of transaction dates. 25 Jan- AprMar Jun 100 0,4 66 19 15 100 0,4 36 41 23 JulSep OctDec JanDec 100 .. 20,1 77,4 2,5 100 .. 21,6 77,3 1,1 100 0,2 38,2 50,7 10,9 Project Loan Agreements Signed in 2004 in the Framework of the Central Government Budget The agreements signed in 2004 include the financing provided from commercial banks with an amount of USD1.5 billion, international institutions with an amount of USD844 million and from governmental institutions with an amount of USD14 million. The share of loans by commercial banks and international institutions realized as 63 % and 36 % of the total commercial credits in the same period. In the first quarter of 2004, no project loan agreement was signed. The amount of project financing loans signed in each of second and third quarters of 2004 reached to USD1.1 billion. Of the total loans amounting to USD96 million that were signed for project financing between October and December 2004, 79 % and 21 % had been provided from commercial banks and international institutions respectively. USD Million (*) 2004 Percentage (%) 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec .. .. 1.083 580 1.147 244 96 20 2.326 844 .. .. 100 53,6 100 21,3 100 20,7 100 36,3 .. .. .. 503 14 889 .. 76 14 1.468 .. .. .. 46,4 1,2 77,5 .. 79,3 0,6 63,1 Project Financing International Institutions Government Institutions (1) Commercial Banks (*) At USD/TRL rates as of transaction dates. (1) KFW Throughout 2004, USD1.9 billion, USD338 million and USD49 million of credit agreements signed had been provided for services, industry and agriculture sectors respectively. In the same period, the shares of project financing loans by the services, energy and agriculture sectors realized in order as 83%, 15% and 2 %. In the second quarter of 2004, project credits were allocated to service sector with 73 percent and to industry sector with 25 percent respectively. In the third quarter, these percentages changed to 96 percent and to 3 percent respectively. Examining new borrowings for project financing with respect to sectors, the highest portion was service sector with USD50 million in the last quarter of 2004. In this sector, the new borrowings were received for General Directorate of Highways in using “Eastern Black Sea Coastal State Roads Project”, and “Düzce-Akçakoca Karadeniz Ereğlisi State Road Project” and “Yakakent Gerze State Road Project” and for the Undersecretariat of Treasury using in “Bosphorus Tube Crossing a Loan”. USD Million (*) 2004 Percentage (%) 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1.083 788 432 114 242 272 272 23 1.147 1.102 1.088 14 .. 39 39 6 96 50 10 40 .. 27 27 20 2.326 1.940 1.530 168 242 338 338 49 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 100 72,7 54,9 14,4 30,7 25,1 25,1 2,2 100 96,1 98,7 1,2 .. 3,4 3,4 0,5 100 51,4 20,2 79,8 0,0 27,9 27,9 20,7 100 83,4 78,9 8,7 12,5 14,5 14,5 2,1 Total Service Transportation Public and Social Trade Industry Energy Agriculture (*) At USD/TRL rates as of transaction dates. 26 2.4.3 EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE In 2004, within the context of consolidated budget, a total of 16.1 quadrillion TL (USD11.4 billion) in external debt repayment was carried out. This amount consisted of TL9.9 quadrillion (USD7 billion) principal payment and TL6.3 quadrillion (USD4.4 billion) interest payment. Throughout 2004, 38 percent share of repayments was performed for credit dues, whereas, bonds repayments occupied 62 percent share of the total repayment amount of TL16.1 quadrillion (USD11 billion) payment. In the same period, repayments on principal made up 62 percent of the total, while payments on interest making up 38 percent (Graph 14). Graph 14: Repayments of Consolidated Budget External Debt in 2004 Interest Loan 38% 38% Bond Principal 62% 62 % In the October-December period of 2004, a total of TL3.8 quadrillion (USD3.8 billion) amount was repaid. TL2.2 quadrillion (USD1.5 billion) of the total repayments was for loans, and TL1.6 quadrillion (USD1.1 billion) of it was for bond issues. TL2.2 quadrillion (USD1.5 billion) of the total repayments was principal payment, and TL1.6 quadrillion (USD1.1 billion) of it was interest payment (Table 16). 27 Table 16: Repayments of Consolidated Budget External Debt in 2004 Trillion TL (*) 2004 X X X Loan Principal Interest Bond Principal Interest TOTAL Principal Interest USD Million 2004 JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec JanMar AprJun JulSep OctDec JanDec 1.394 945 449 5.072 3.686 1.386 6.465 4.631 1.835 1.881 1.259 623 695 0 695 2.576 1.259 1.317 1.537 988 548 1.717 757 960 3.253 1.745 1.508 2.241 1.504 736 1.602 741 860 3.843 2.246 1.597 7.052 4.697 2.356 9.085 5.184 3.901 16.137 9.881 6.257 1.041 707 334 3.759 2.733 1.026 4.800 3.440 1.360 1.298 868 430 478 0 478 1.776 868 909 1.033 665 368 1.166 507 659 2.200 1.172 1.028 1.520 1.026 494 1.096 500 596 2.616 1.526 1.090 4.893 3.266 1.627 6.499 3.740 2.760 11.392 7.006 4.386 (*) The amounts were converted into dollars on the basis of the Central Bank of Turkey exchange rates dated as transaction bases. In 2004, within the framework of the consolidated budget, TL6.8 quadrillion (USD4.7 billion) of the total repayment was realized in USD, TL5.9 quadrillion (USD 4.3 billion) in Euro, TL1.7 quadrillion (USD1.2 billion) in Japanese Yen, TL1.5 quadrillion (USD1 billion) in SDR and TL230 trillion (USD87 million) in other currencies (Table 17). Table 17: Currency Composition of Repayments of Consolidated Budget Trillion TL (*) 2004 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Principal Dollar Euro JPY SDR Other X Interest Dollar Euro JPY SDR Other X TOTAL Dollar Euro JPY SDR Other X 4.631 448 3.541 482 91 70 1.835 726 815 49 236 8 6.465 1.175 4.356 530 327 78 1.259 820 188 115 90 45 1.317 688 316 36 251 25 2.576 1.509 505 151 341 71 USD Million 2004 Jul-Sep Oct-Dec 1.745 566 182 875 96 26 1.508 1.011 157 29 305 7 3.253 1.577 338 904 401 33 2.246 1.779 229 112 99 27 1.597 765 436 36 337 22 3.843 2.544 665 148 437 49 Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Dec 9.881 3.614 4.139 1.584 376 168 6.257 3.191 1.725 150 1.130 63 16.137 6.805 5.864 1.733 1.505 230 3.440 337 2.657 364 67 15 1.360 537 609 36 176 3 4.800 874 3.266 400 243 17 868 576 126 81 66 19 908 474 227 26 173 8 1.776 1.050 354 107 239 27 1.172 382 124 586 67 15 1.028 691 106 19 207 5 2.200 1.073 230 605 273 19 1.526 1.207 159 76 67 17 1.090 531 297 25 230 7 2.616 1.738 457 101 296 24 7.006 2.501 3.066 1.107 267 65 4.386 2.234 1.239 106 785 22 11.392 4.735 4.306 1.212 1.051 87 (*) The amounts were converted into dollars on the basis of the Central Bank of Turkey exchange rates dated as transaction bases. Examining repayments in the framework of consolidated budget, the highest shares in order were 42 percent for Euro, 35 percent for USD, 13 percent for Japanese Yen, 9 percent for SDR and 1 percent for the other currencies (Graph 15). 28 Graph 15: Currency Composition of Repayments of Consolidated Budget in 2004 JPY 13 % Other 1% SDR 9% Dollar 35 % Euro 42 % 2.4.4 SECONDARY MARKETS Yields on Turkey’s bonds fell to historical lows in the first quarter of 2004. However, in the second quarter of the year, there was a spike in the emerging market bond yields accompanied with a period of volatility, mainly driven by the expectations of increase in FED interest rates. This period continued until the date of June 30, 2004 when FED raised short-term interest rates by 25 basis points and reiterated its commitment to raise rates at a “measured” pace. After this date, a rapid decline in yields was observed. However, following the FED chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony to Congress on July 20, 2004, where he stated that interest rates can be raised at an increasing pace, emerging market bond yields increased sharply. After the subsequent economic data which indicated a slow pace of growth in U.S.A, yields started to fall again. In the last quarter of 2004, markets continued to focus on the developments in the U.S economy. Nevertheless, volatility was limited in this period compared to the previous periods, due to both the economic data, supporting slow pace of growth in U.S.A and the seasonal decline in liquidity. Turkey’s bond yields continued with its downward trend and fell to its historical low levels depending on the expectations and developments regarding the EU process and the new IMF Stand-by arrangement. (Graph 16, Graph 17). 29 Graph 16: Secondary Market Performance of USD Denominated Eurobonds yield (%) 11 US US Greenspan US December 17 Employment Employmen Testimony Employment EU Brussels Data (Apr) t Data (Jun) Data (Jul) Summit $ 9.875% 2008 $ 11.0% 2013 10 $ 11.875% 2030 9 8 7 6 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Graph 17: Secondary Market Performance of Euro Denominated Eurobonds yield (%) 10 US US Employment Employment Data (Apr) Data (Jun) Greenspan Testimony US December 17 Employment EU Brussels Summit Data (Jul) € 8.125% 2007 9 € 9.25% 2010 € 6.5% 2014 8 7 6 5 4 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec In light of those improvements, Turkish bonds were traded at lower yield levels than those of its peer group countries (Table 18,Graph 18). 30 Table 18: Yield Comparison with Peer Group Countries (*) USD Denominated Eurobonds Country Rating Coupon (%) Turkey Brazil Colombia Venezuela Philippines Euro Denominated Eurobonds B1 / BBB1 / BBBa2 / BB B2 / B Ba2 / BB Country Rating Coupon (%) Turkey Philippines Venezuela Colombia Brazil Maturity Yield (%) 8,000 8,250 10,375 9,375 10,625 B1 / BBBa2 / BB B2 / B Ba2 / BB B1 / BB- 2034 2034 2033 2034 2025 Spread (bp) 7,63 8,65 8,89 8,92 9,77 279 381 404 408 522 Maturity Yield (%) Spread (bp) 9,500 9,125 11,125 11,500 9,500 2011 2010 2011 2011 2011 5,18 5,46 6,33 6,33 6,49 198 238 305 307 329 (*)As of end 2004 Graph 18: EMBI+ and EMBI+ Turkey Subindex US Employment Data (Apr) (bp) US Employment Data (Jun) Greenspan US December 17 Testimony Employment EU Brussels Data (Jul) Summit 600 500 400 300 200 (EMBI+T urkey)-(EMBI+) 100 EMBI+ EMBI+ T urkey 0 -100 -200 Jan 2.4.5 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CREDIT RATING In the last quarter of 2004, Turkey’s credit ratings remained same. The current credit ratings as of the end of 2004 are B1 (stable) by Moody’s, BB- (stable) by Standard & Poor’s, B+ (positive) by Fitch, and B+ (positive) by JCR. 31 As regards the whole year 2004, Turkey’s credit ratings were on an improving track. While Standard&Poor’s and Fitch upgraded Turkey’s sovereign credit rating, JCR changed Turkey’s rating outlook from stable to positive. In the wake of S&P’s upgrading of our credit rating, Turkey’s fx denominated long-term credit rating increased to “BB” from “B” for the first time after ten years (Table 19). Table 19 : Developments in the Credit Rating of Turkey End of 2003 09.02.2004 08.03.2004 12.03.2004 17.08.2004 25.08.2004 End of 2004 Standard & Poor's Moody’s Fitch JCR B+ (stable) .. B+ (positive) .. BB- (stable) .. BB- (stable) B1 (stable) .. .. .. .. .. B1 (stable) B (positive) B+ (stable) .. .. .. B+ (positive) B+ (positive) B+ (stable) .. .. B+ (positive) .. .. B+ (positive) 32 3 DEBT STOCK 3.1 CHANGES IN DEBT STOCK The consolidated budget debt stock, which was 314.8 quadrillion TL in September 2004, grew by TL1.6 quadrillion during the last three months of the year, reached TL316.4 quadrillion by the end of the year. In this context, the consolidated budget debt stock amount for the end of 2004 was TL33.5 quadrillion greater than the TL282.9 quadrillion of the previous year. In 2004, when compared to the year 2003, the domestic debt stock and the external debt stock grew TL30.1 quadrillion and TL3.4 quadrillion respectively (Table 20). Table 20: Consolidated Budget Debt Stock (*) 2003 Quadrillion TL 2004 Billion USD % Share Quadrillion TL Billion USD % Share TOTAL 282.9 202.7 100.0 316.4 235.7 100.0 DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK 194.4 88.5 37.5 51.0 139.3 63.4 26.8 36.6 68.7 31.3 13.2 18.1 224.5 91.9 39.8 52.0 167.3 68.5 29.7 38.8 71.0 29.0 12.6 16.5 EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK BONDS CREDITS (*) Provisional, based on Central Bank of Turkey foreign exchange rates as of 31.12.2004 3.1.1 DOMESTIC DEBT While the net domestic financing has realized TL30.8 quadrillions, the increase in domestic debt has stood at TL30.1 quadrillions in 2004. The difference between the stock and the financing figures has resulted from on-lending borrowing, return of the domestic debt securities and the exchange rate differences amounting TL2.3 quadrillions, (-) TL1.9 quadrillions, (-) TL1.1 quadrillions, respectively (Table 21). 33 Table 21: January-December Consolidated Budget Domestic Debt Stock Change (in trillion TL) (*) 2003 December Domestic Debt Stock 2004 January-December Change in Domestic Debt Stock Budget Net Domestic Financing (+) Non-Cash On-Lending (+) Non-Cash On Account Net Borrowing (+) Return of the Securities Exchange Rate Difference (+) Other (+) 2004 December Domestic Debt Stock 194,387 30,096 30,759 2,341 -1,947 -1,947 -1,057 0 224,483 * Provisional While in September 2004, the consolidated budget debt stock was TL217.6 quadrillions, in December it had reached to TL224.5 quadrillions. Therefore, in the last quarter of the year, domestic debt stock increased by TL 6.9 quadrillions. On the other hand, the increase in domestic financing of the consolidated budget was TL7 quadrillions. The difference between the net domestic financing and the increase in the domestic debt amounting TL0.1 quadrillion has resulted from on-lending borrowing by TL2.3 quadrillions, and exchange rate differences by (-) TL2.4 quadrillions (Table 22). Table 22: October-December Consolidated Budget Domestic Debt Stock Change (in trillion TL) (*) 2004 September Domestic Debt Stock 2004 October-December Change in Domestic Debt Stock Budget Net Domestic Financing (+) Non-Cash On Lending (+) Non-Cash On Account Net Borrowing (+) Return of Securities Exchange Rate Difference (+) Other (+) 2004 December Domestic Debt Stock 217,571 6,912 7,033 2,341 0 0 -2,399 -63 224,483 * Provisional 3.1.2 EXTERNAL DEBT In 2004, while the external debt stock increased by TL3.4 quadrillions, the increase in foreign borrowing of the consolidated budget stood at TL3.1 quadrillions. The difference between the outstanding debt and the foreign financing figures, 34 amounting TL0.3 quadrillion has resulted from the unapproved foreign project credit and the exchange rate amounting TL1 quadrillion and (-) TL0.7 quadrillion (Table 23). Table 23: January-December Consolidated Budget Foreign Debt Stock Change (in trillion TL) (*) 2003 December Foreign Debt Stock 2004 January-December Change in Foreign Debt Stock Budget Net Foreign Financing (+) Unapproved Foreign Project Credit (+) Exchange Rate Difference (+) 2004 December Foreign Debt Stock 88,507 3,390 3,072 1,028 -709 91,897 * Provisional The consolidated budget external debt stock, which was TL97.5 quadrillions in September 2003, decreased by TL5.3 quadrillions during October-December, reaching TL91.9 quadrillions. In the same period, foreign financing of the consolidated budget stood at TL1 quadrillion. The difference between the increase in external debt stock and the consolidated budget external financing, amounting TL6.3 quadrillions, has come from the unapproved foreign project credit and the exchange rate amounting TL0.1 quadrillion and (-) TL6.4 quadrillions, respectively (Table 24). Table 24: October-December Consolidated Budget Foreign Debt Stock Change (in trillion TL) (*) 2004 September Foreign Debt Stock 2004 October-December Change in Foreign Debt Stock Budget Net Foreign Financing (+) Unapproved Foreign Project Credit (+) Exchange Rate Difference (+) 2004 December Foreign Debt Stock * Provisional 35 97,198 -5,301 1,023 129 -6,453 91,897 3.2 STRUCTURE OF CONSOLIDATED BUDGET DEBT STOCK As a result of benchmark borrowing strategies4 applied in 2004, share of TL denominated debt in the total debt stock which was 53,7 percent at the end of 2003, has risen to 58,5 percent (Table 25, Graph 19). Likewise, 4.8 points decrease of the share of FX denominated/FX indexed debt in the total debt stock compared to the previous year was the result of Treasury’s heavy TL denominated borrowing. Table 25: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock (2003-2004)* 2003 (Quadrillion TL) TOTAL Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock TLdenominated USDdenominated / indexed EUROdenominated / indexed 151,8 151,8 0,0 65,2 29,3 35,8 28,1 4,8 23,3 SDR 31,8 8,5 23,4 53,7 78,1 0,0 23,0 15,1 40,5 9,9 2,5 26,3 11,3 4,4 26,4 Japanese Yen 5,2 0,0 5,2 Other 0,8 0,0 0,8 Total 282,9 194,4 88,5 1,8 0,0 5,9 0,3 0,0 0,9 100,0 100,0 100,0 3,9 0,0 3,9 Other 0,7 0,0 0,7 Total 316,4 224,5 91,9 1,2 0,0 4,2 0,2 0,0 0,8 100,0 100,0 100,0 (% Share) TOTAL Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock 2004 (Quadrillion TL) TOTAL Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock (% Share) TOTAL Domestic Debt Stock External Debt Stock TLdenominated USDdenominated / indexed EUROdenominated / indexed 185,0 185,0 0,0 69,2 30,2 39,0 29,1 5,6 23,5 SDR 28,5 3,7 24,8 58,5 82,4 0,0 21,9 13,5 42,4 9,2 2,5 25,6 9,0 1,6 26,9 Japanese Yen *Provisional, based on end period Central Bank of Turkey foreign exchange rates. 4 Information on 2004 benchmark borrowing strategies is given in Public Debt Management February 2004 Report. 36 Graph 19: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock 2003 FX Den. / Indexed 46,3% 2004 FX Den. / Indexed 41,5% TL Den. 53,7% TL Den. 58,5% Within the scope of minimizing interest at risk component of Treasury’s debt portfolio strategy, share of floating interest debt in consolidated budget total debt stock decreased 4.9 points and came to 46.2 percent at the end of 2004 compared to 2003 (Graph 20). Graph 20: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock Floating Rate 51,1% 3.2.1 2003 2004 Floating Rate 46,2% Fixed Rate 48,9% Fixed Rate 53,8% DOMESTIC DEBT The share of TL denominated securities in domestic debt stock increased from 78.1 percent to 82.4 percent in 2004 when compared to 2003 (Graph 21). Treasury’s borrowing strategies aiming to reduce FX risk and the appreciation of TL have been the main reasons for the decrease in the share of FX denominated / indexed debt. 37 Graph 21: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget DomesticDebt Stock 2004 2003 FX Den. / Ind. 21.9% TL 78.1% FX Den. / Ind. TL 17.6% 82.4% The share of floating rate notes in domestic debt stock has been 48.5 percent as of 2004 and the remaining 51.5 percent consisted of fixed rate debt (Graph 22). The decrease in the share of floating rate borrowing which had been 56.3 percent as of 2003, was realized due to fixed rate borrowing for the redemptions of floating rate non-cash redemptions. Graph 22: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock 2004 2003 Floating 56,3% 3.2.2 Floating Fixed Rate 43,7% 48.5% Fixed Rate 51.5% EXTERNAL DEBT The consolidated budget external debt stock, which had been USD63.4 billion at the end of 2003, reached to USD68.5 billion by the end of 2004. USD29.7 billion (43%) bonds issued at external markets and USD38.8 billion (57%) credits made up this mentioned amount (Table 26). In line with the USD5.8 billion borrowing, netting repayments and developments in foreign exchange rates, the external bond stock, which had been USD26.8 billion at the end of 2003, reached to USD29.7 billion at the end of 2004. Of USD29.7 billion external bond stock, USD17.2 billion was Dollar-denominated (58%) 38 and USD12.4 billion was Euro-denominated (42%) bonds. By the end of 2004, only USD96.4 million (10 billion JPY) of Yen-denominated bond existed in the stock. Within this context, in year 2004 net bond borrowing was heavily performed in USD terms. At credits side, like occurred in the year 2003, IMF credits took over the largest component of credit stock by SDR18.5 billion. Table 26: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock (2003-2004) (Billion USD)* TOTAL BONDS CREDITS USD 25,7 14,0 11,7 2003 Euro 16,7 11,9 4,7 TOTAL BONDS CREDITS USD 29,1 17,2 11,9 Euro 17,5 12,4 5,1 SDR 16,7 0,0 16,7 Japanese Yen 3,7 0,9 2,8 Other 0,6 0,0 0,6 Total 63,4 26,8 36,6 2004 SDR 18,5 0,0 18,5 Japanese Yen 2,9 0,1 2,8 Other 0,6 0,0 0,6 Total 68,5 29,7 38,8 *Provisional, based on end period Central Bank of Turkey foreign exchange rates. Currency composition of the external debt stock in year 2004, showed no significant change from 2003. 42.4 percent of USD-denominated obligations kept being the greatest part of the total stock at the end of 2004. Euro-denominated and the SDR-denominated obligations made up the 25.6 percent and 26.9 percent of the external debt stock respectively (Graph 23). 39 Graph 23: Currency Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock 2003 SDR 26,4% Euro 26,3% Japanese Yen Other 5,9% 0,9% 2004 SDR 26,9% Japanese Other Yen 0,8% 4,2% Euro 25,6% USD 40,5% USD 42,4% Fixed rate notes in the consolidated budget external debt stock slightly decreased compared to 2003 and realized as 59.5 percent at the end of 2004. As the foreign bonds making 43 percent of the consolidated budget external debt stock was completely issued in fixed interest rates, consolidated budget external debt stock was mostly build up by fixed rate debt instruments (Graph 24). Graph 24: Interest Composition of Consolidated Budget External Debt Stock Floating Rate 39,8% 2003 Fixed Rate 60,2% Floating Rate 40,5% 2004 Fixed Rate 59,5% 4 DEBT SERVICE PROJECTION The pre-determined domestic debt payments as end of January 2005, TL150.1 quadrillion in total, will be consisting of TL112.7 quadrillion principal and of TL37.3 quadrillion interest. These amounts may change due to interest and exchange rate realizations and new borrowings in time (Graph 25). 40 Graph 25: Pre-Determined Domestic Debt Payments for 2005 (*) 18 16 Quadrillion TL 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Principal N ov .0 5 D ec .0 5 5 A ug .0 5 S ep .0 5 O ct .0 5 Ju l.0 Ju n. 05 M ay .0 5 M ar /0 5 A pr .0 5 Ja n. 05 Fe b. 05 0 Interest (*) As end of January 2005. Figure for January 2005 represents realization, while the figures for other months represent projections. The pre-determined payments of domestic debt are comprised of payments of TL 127.5 quadrillion for the redemption of TL denominated securities and TL 22.6 quadrillion for the redemption of FX denominated and indexed securities (Graph 26). Graph 26: TL/FX Composition of Pre-Determined Domestic Debt Payments for 2005 (*) 18 16 Quadrillion TL 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 TL N ov .0 5 D ec .0 5 A ug .0 5 S ep .0 5 O ct .0 5 5 Ju l.0 Ju n. 05 A pr .0 5 M ay .0 5 M ar .0 5 Ja n. 05 Fe b. 05 0 FX Denominated/Linked (*) As end of January 2005. Figure for January 2005 represents realization, while the figures for other months represent projections. A total of TL 25quadrillion (USD15.6 billion) repayment of external debt projections in the year of 2005 includes total repayments of TL15.6 quadrillion (USD9.6 billion) and TL9.4 quadrillion (USD6 billion) for credits and bonds 41 respectively. Out of these totals, repayments of TL17.6 quadrillion will be made (USD 10.9 billion) for principal, while the rest will be held for interest repayments (Graph 27). A ug Se p O ct N ov D ec A ug Se p O ct N ov D ec Bond Principal Ju l Ju n M ay A pr M ar Fe b 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Ja n quadrillion TL Loan Ju l Ju n M ay A pr M ar Fe b 4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Ja n quadrillion TL Graph 27: Projection of Consolidated Budget External Debt Repayments in 2005 Interest (*) As of end of January 2005. It shows the actual data for Jan 2005 and the rests are the projections. It is estimated that a total of USD62.2 billion will be paid out within the framework of consolidated budget foreign debt service in the period of 2005-2009. 75 percent of this amount (USD46.7 billion) will be performed for principal, while the 25 percent of it will be (USD15.6 billion) for interest. During the same period, 59 percent (USD36.6 billion) and 41 percent (USD25.6 billion) of the total payments results from credits and bonds respectively (Graph 28). 42 Graph 28: Projection of Consolidated Budget External Debt Payment (*) b illio n USD 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 15,7 20,5 10,5 9,3 6,2 Interest 4,8 3,6 2,9 2,3 1,9 Principal 10,9 16,9 7,6 7,0 4,3 (*) The external debt projections of end of Dec 2004 calculated with 30.09.2004 exchange rates. The payments to IMF are estimated bases. Formatted: Bullets and Numbering 43 5 GRANTS 5.1 GRANTS AWARDED In 2004, the Republic of Turkey awarded a total of USD2.2 million of grants. The largest share belongs to Afghanistan with an amount of USD1.1 million (Table 27). Table 27: Grants Awarded by Treasury in 2004 Granted to (Institution/Country) Date Explanation Amount Currency Palestine 12/19/2004 Economic and Social Development 900,000 USD Afghanistan 12/19/2004 Financing of Current Expenditures 100,000 USD Afghanistan 12/19/2004 Economic and Social Development 1,000,000 USD World Food Program 12/27/2004 Financing of the Activities of the World Food Program in Tajikistan 150,000 USD Total 2,150,000 Formatted: Bullets and Numbering 5.2 GRANTS RECEIVED In the last quarter of 2004, a total of USD35.1 million was provided to the Republic of Turkey, of which USD28.1 million was denominated in Euro and the rest in USD. In 2004, the total amount of grants received was USD160.6 million. During this period, the largest grant was obtained from the European Commission in the amount of USD123.4 million. That was followed by the German Goverment and KFW grants in the amount of USD26 million (Table 28). 44 Table 28: Grants Received by Treasury in 2004 Grant Grants Received From Date Transferred To Amount Currency Mersin Harbour Feasibility Study Kingdom of Spain 1/19/2004 Ministry of Transportation/DLHI 259,630 EUR Çandarlı Harbour Feasibility Study Kingdom of Spain 1/19/2004 Ministry of Transportation/DLHI 261,393 EUR Decreasing the Seismic Risk of Istanbul ve Emergency Preperation Project World Bank (Japan PHRD Grant) 1/23/2004 Priministry Project Implementation Unit 927,500 USD Strengthening Institutional Capacity Building for Efficient Public Liability Management World Bank Institutional Development Fund (IDF) 3/9/2004 Undersecretariat of Treasury, Gen. Dir. Of Public Finance 320,000 USD Real Estate Information System Feasibility Study United States Trade and Development Agency (TDA) 3/22/2004 Municipality of Küçükçekmece 114,000 USD 2003 Financial Memorandum European Commission 6/21/2004 Central Finance and Contacts Unit 50,655,200 EUR Eastern Part of Turkey Development Program European Commission 6/4/2004 Central Finance and Contacts Unit 7,724,473 EUR Technical Preperation for Municipal Services Project World Bank (IBRD) 5/5/2004 İller Bank 500,000 USD Preperation for Restructuring of Railways World Bank (IBRD) 6/11/2004 R.T. State Railways 700,000 USD Technical Support of Judicial Reform World Bank (IBRD) 5/5/2004 Ministry of Justice 460,000 USD Batman Water Supply and Sewerage Project German Government-KfW 7/7/2004 Municipality of Batman 9,041,820 EUR Preperation for Energy Liberalization Project World Bank (Japan PHRD Grant) 9/22/2004 Ministry of Energy and Natural Recourses 600,000 USD Pre-accession Financial Aid/2002 Financial Memorandum-Administrative Cooperation Program European Commission 7/22/2004 7/27/2004 9/8/2004 Central Finance and Contacts Unit 32,895,183 EUR Emergency Measures Project for Van Water Supply German Government-KfW and Sewerage System 12/23/2004 Anatolian Water Basin Project Global Environment Facility 10/4/2004 II. Administrative Cooperation Program , 2001 Accession to MEDA Program European Commission 11/23/2004 12/21/2004 Municipality of Van 11,101,804 EUR Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs 7.000.000 USD Central Finance and Contacts Unit 9,932,012 EUR 160,622,675 USD Total In 2004, the highest amount of grant was allocated to Central Finance and Contracts Unit, categorized under “Other” item of Table 29. Table 29: Breakdown of the Grants Received and Used by Treasury in 2004 (USD) Grants Received From Jan-March April-June July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Dec Governments Multilateral Organizations European Commission 765,435 1,247,500 .. .. 1,660,000 70,327,287 11,116,917 600,000 39,773,566 14,850,884 7,000,000 13,281,086 26,733,236 10,507,500 123,381,939 Grants Transferred To Consolidated Budget (*) Local Administrations SOEs Other 1,898,935 114,000 .. .. 460,000 .. 700,000 70,827,287 217,800 11,116,917 382,200 39,773,566 7,000,000 14,850,884 .. 13,281,086 9,576,735 26,081,801 1,082,200 123,881,939 Total 2,012,935 71,987,287 51,490,483 35,131,970 160,622,675 (*) USD 217.8 thousand of the USD 600 thousand grant which was provided in July-Septemeber period, will be used jointly by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and EUAS. As the amount which will be used by each party is not known, the total amount of the grant is shown in "Consolidated Budget" Section of the table. 45 Formatted: Bullets and Numbering 6 CONTINGENT LIABILITIES 6.1 REPAYMENT GUARANTEES 6.1.1 TREASURY GUARANTEED EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 5 As of September 2004, Treasury guaranteed external debt stock decreased by 0.7 percent to USD5.3 billion compared to that of the previous quarter (Table 30). As of the end of the third quarter of 2004, although there has not been a major change in the institutional breakdown of the stock, the increase in the share of development and investment banks continued as in the previous period. Table 30: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock End of June 2004 Trillion TL Millon $ X X X X X % End of September 2004 Trillion TL Millon $ 7,953 5,352 100 7,958 5,313 100 SOEs Local Government Extra Budgetary Funds Development and Investment Banks 4,278 1,829 722 1,124 2,879 1,231 486 756 54 23 9 14 4,184 1,764 697 1,312 2,794 1,178 466 876 53 22 9 16 (*) Provisional (**) Exchange rates based on end of period bid rates 5 % TOTAL The guaranteed external debt stock is updated with a quarterly lag because the data is reported by the borrowers. 46 As of the third quarter of 2004, the share of private creditors6 declined. The mentioned decreasing trend had started in 1996 and continued increasingly beginning from 2000 (Graph 29). In the same period, while the share of the official creditors in the Treasury guaranteed external debt stock remained same, an increase was observed in the share of the multilateral organizations. This increase in the share of the multilateral institutions and the drop in the share of the private creditors resulted from the clear change taking place in the lenders’ breakdown of the Treasury guaranteed debt provided since 2002. This change was a consequence of the implementation of the partial guarantee7 scheme, which was applied to the guaranteed credit claims except the ones obtained from the regional and international lenders and from the official export credit agencies. Graph 29: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock by Lender* 7,000 6,000 million $ 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1996 1997 Official Creditors 1998 1999 2000 2001 Multilateral Organizations 2002 2003 2004 Ç3 Private Creditors * Provisional As of the end of September 2004, the main holders of Treasury guaranteed external debt stock were Electricity Production Inc. (EÜAŞ) holding USD1.2 billion and Turkish Airlines (THY) holding USD900 million (Graph 30). 6 Private creditors comprise the commercial banks, nonbank financial institutions and the non-monetary institutions. 7 The partial guarantee practice was started according to the article 10 of the Regulation on the Principles and Procedures for the Granting, Monitoring, Budgeting and Reporting of Treasury Guarantees (published in the Official Gazette on April 12, 2002). 47 Graph 30: Institutional Breakdown of Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock by the end of September 2004 TÜPRAŞ 4% OTHER 32% EXİMBANK 6% DISF 9% TSKB 9% THY 17% EÜAŞ 23% *Provisional As of the end of September 2004, the seven institutions holding the largest shares within the guaranteed debt stock of the SOEs made up 97 percent of that stock. Among these institutions, the largest share belongs to EÜAŞ (Graph 31). Besides, Municipality of Adana Greater City and Municipality of Eskişehir Greater City continue to hold the largest shares among the local administrations during the same period (Graph 32). Graph 31: Institutional Breakdown of the Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock of the SOEs by the end of September 2004* OTHER 3% TELEKOM 1%TPAO 2% TEİAŞ BOTAŞ 5% 6% TÜPRAŞ 7% Graph 32: Institutional Breakdown of the Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock of the Local Administrations by the end of September 2004* EGO 8% " " EÜAŞ 44% BUSKİ 6% OTHER 49% THY 32% *Provisional *Provisional MUN. OF İSTANBUL G.C. 8% MUN. OF İZMİR G.C. 8% MUN. OF ADANA G.C. 11% MUN. OF ESKİŞEHİR G.C. 10% The evaluation of the currency composition of the Treasury guaranteed debt stock showed that US dollar-denominated debt stock accounted for 63.6 percent and Euro denominated debt stock accounted for 28.1 percent of the stock by the end of September 2004. On the other hand, loans with variable interest rate accounted for 62.7 percent and fixed rate loans accounted for 35.7 percent of the guaranteed debt stock (Graph 33). 48 Graph 33: Currency and Interest Rate Composition of Guaranteed External Debt Stock as of the end of September 2004* USD 63,6% Variable 62,7% OTHER 0,3% JPY 6,1% GBP 1,4% EUR 28,1% Mixed 1,6% CHF 0,5% Fixed 35,7% * Provisional 6.1.2 * Provisional Formatted: Bullets and Numbering REPAYMENT GUARANTEES ISSUED In 2004, a total of USD808 million Treasury guanteed loan was provided by an amount of USD607 million in the first quarter, USD201 million in the last quarter8 (Table 31). In the last quarter of 2004, the liabilities arising from the USD1.8 million loan that was provided to Milas Municipality were under 95 percent of guarantee9. Table 31: Treasury Guaranteed Debt Issued in 2004 Agreement Date Currency Loan amount Creditor 2/20/2004 USD 303,100,000 World Bank 3/4/2004 EUR 250,000,000 European Investment Bank T. Sınai Kalkınma Bank (TSKB) 11/30/2004 EUR 150,000,000 European Investment Bank Municipality of Milas 12/15/2004 USD 1,845,000 Commercial Bank T. Sınai Kalkınma Bank (TSKB) T. Sınai Kalkınma Bank (TSKB), T. Vakıflar Bank, R.T. Ziraat Bank, T.Halk Bank, T. Development Bank Total in USD 807,635,000 The analysis of the Treasury guarantees between the years 1996-2004 shows that there has been a decrease in the share of the private creditors and an increase in the share of multilateral institutions especially after 1999. Starting from 2002, the 8 In 2004, the guaranteed debt limit was determined as USD1 billion in the budget law. 9 Treasury repayment guarantee is provided partially up to 95% of the total liability on price and/or amount where the financial conditions for each guarantee claimed loan are to be defined. Similarly, Treasury investment guarantee is provided partially up to 95% of the total liability on price/tariff, amount and duration for each guarantee type. However, the loans received from international and regional institutions and the export credits obtained from the official export credit agencies are exempt from partial guarantee scheme. 49 composition of Treasury guarantees by lenders changed drastically; all the Treasury guaranteed loans provided in 2003 and 99.8 percent of the Treasury guaranteed loans provided in 2004 were obtained from multilateral institutions (Graph 34). Graph 34: Treasury Guarantees By Lender* 3,500 3,000 million $ 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1996 1997 Official Creditors 1998 1999 2000 Multilateral Organizations 2001 2002 2003 2004 Private Creditors *Provisional 6.2 INVESTMENT GUARANTEES Formatted: Bullets and Numbering During 1995-1999 period, Undersecretariat of Treasury provided investment guarantees for one operating rights transfer (ORT) project and eleven build-operatetranfer (BOT) projects of which one for water supply and the remaining ten for electricity generation purposes and for five build-operate (BO) projects (Table 60). Between the years 1999-2004, no investment guarantee was provided. There has not been any payments undertaken among the electricity sector BOT/BO/ORT projects. On the other side, for the water supply BOT project, payments are being undertaken in line with the “take-or-pay” agreement signed between Municipality of İzmit Greater City and the BOT company. 6.3 REPAYMENTS FOR CONTINGENT LIABILITIES In the last quarter of 2004, TL162.4 trillion payments have been realized from the Risk Account10 due to the financial difficulties of the institutions. 10 In accordance with Article 13 of Law no. 4749 “Law on Regulating Public Finance and Debt Management”, dated 28 March 2002, a Risk Account which belongs to the Treasury has been established at the Central Bank of 50 Formatted: Bullets and Numbering In the same period, the amount of collection was in the amount of TL37.9 trillion and a big part of it11 was obtained from the SOEs and the local administrations which have high proportion of undertaken payments (Table 32). Table 32: Risk Account (Billion TL) Total Payments SOEs BOT Local Administrations Banks EBFs FX Differences Total Income (-) * SOEs BOT Local Administrations Banks EBFs JAN-DEC 03 Jan-March April-June July-Sep Oct-Dec JAN-DEC 04 1,003,571 172,837 288,734 525,000 0 17,000 137,136 6,370 31,919 98,846 0 0 194,326 14,911 60,742 118,674 0 0 146,166 1,254 60,839 84,073 0 0 162,359 14,317 59,814 88,228 0 0 639,987 36,852 213,314 389,822 0 0 -91 104 9 0 47 159 78,747 47,388 66 30,750 543 0 36,867 27,016 41 9,717 93 0 59,292 25,445 229 33,562 56 0 29,279 9,861 44 16,852 2,522 0 37,911 16,133 1,245 20,161 372 0 163,348 78,455 1,560 80,292 3,042 0 Escrow Account* 1,088 Balance Carried Forward to 2005 Transfer from the Budget 8,674 924,839 484,277 In 2004, TL426.7 trillion of the payments made from the Risk Account belong to the Treasury guaranteed external credits and TL213.3 trillion belong to the guarantees provided for the BOT projects. In addition, TL161.8 trillion of the collections received to the Risk Account came from the undertaken repayment guarantees and TL1.5 trillion from the payments made for the investment guarantee provided to the BOT project. In 2004 compared to 2003, there has been a decrease of 36 percent in the payments and an increase of 107 percent in the collection amount. In 2003, TL 924.8 trillion has been used from the Risk Account appropriation which was determined as TL1.15 quadrillion. In 2004, the said appropriation has been set at TL 1.75 quadrillion and TL484.3 trillion has been used. The fact that the realized values stayed below the appropriation amount show that the proportion of undertaken payments realized less than expected while the collection rate turned out higher than expected. Turkey for the undertaking of the repayments by the Treasury for Treasury guarantees. Detailed information can be obtained from the February 2004 report. 11 The number includes the collections realized against the repayments from the Risk Account as well as the onlent credit and guaranteed credit fees. 51 When we look at the quarterly developments of the proportion of returns to the payments in the Risk Account in 2003 and 2004, the average rate which had been 9 percent in 2003 increased to 25 percent in 2004 (Graph 35). Graph 35: Proportion of Returns to Payments * 40 31 27 30 23 20 15 % 20 10 2 14 4 0 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q1 Income/Payment *Provisional 52 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 Total Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Repayments and the Undertaken Amount by the Treasury in 2004 During 2004, within the context of Treasury repayment guarantees, a total of USD1.7 billion payment has been made. USD1.4 billion of the mentioned amount was paid by the institutions themselves while USD295 million was undertaken by the Treasury. Similar to the previous years, in 2004, the highest amount of Treasury undertaken debt payments belongs to the local administrations with a share of 91 percent. In this period, no debt was undertaken on behalf of the development and investment banks. Repayment Guaranteed Debt Service Realized in 2004 * 1500 1250 million $ 1000 750 500 250 0 EBFs SOEs Dev.& Inv. Local Banks Admin. - Total Undertaken by the Treasury 11 15 269 295 Paid by the Institution 149 963 127 114 1,353 Total 160 978 127 383 1,648 *Provisional In 2004, 18 percent of the repayments for the Treasury guaranteed debt was made by the Treasury. 70 percent of the guaranteed debt service of the local administrations, 7 percent of the guaranteed debt service of the extrabudgetary funds and 2 percent of the guaranteed debt service of the SOEs were realized by the Treasury. Rate of Undertaken Debt in 2004 * 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 98 93 82 70 30 18 7 2 EBFs SOEs Dev .& Inv . Banks Undertaken by the Treasury *Provisional 53 Local Admin. Total Paid by the Institution Analysis of the Debt Undertaken by the Treasury due to the Treasury Guaranteed External Debt, 1999-2004 Between the years 1999-2004, there is a declining trend in undertaken Treasury guarantees starting from 2002. The said rate decreased to 18 percent starting from 2004. Rate of Undertaken Debt Between 1999-2004 58 60 52 52 52 50 40 % 27 30 20 18 10 0 1999 * 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 *Provisional When the following figure shows that there is a decline in the payments for the SOEs especially in the last three years. While the proportion of the SOEs’ guaranteed debt undertaken remained at around 50 percent until 2003, this proportion decreased to 12 percent in 2003 and 2 percent in 2004. Similarly, the proportion of undertaken guaranteed debt payments for the local administrations declined from 81 percent in 2003 to 70 percent in 2004. Rate of Undertaken Debt by Budget Categories between 1999-2004 % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1999 Dev.& Inv.Banks * Provisional 2000 EBFs 2001 SOEs 2002 Annexed Budget 54 2003 2004 Local Administrations 6.4 REPAYMENT PROJECTION OF TREASURY GUARANTEED DEBT Within the framework of Treasury guaranteed loans, a total debt service of USD471.7 million is foreseen in the last quarter of 2004. This amount includes USD397.9 million principal, USD73.8 million interest payments. Based on the guaranteed debt stock as of September 2004, between October 2004 and 2008 a total of USD3.8 billion debt service is foreseen of which USD3.2 billion in principal and USD663 million in interest payments. Guaranteed external debt stock service in the said period form 58 percent of the total guaranteed debt repayments. Similarly, the principal repayments form 59 percent of the total principal repayments which are in the amount of USD3.4 billion (Graph 36). Graph 36: Principal-Interest Breakdown of Projected Guaranteed Debt Service12 * 1,250 1,000 million $ 750 500 250 0 Oct-Dec 04 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 471.7 1109.4 905.4 741.5 619.0 Principal 397.9 916.6 744.5 611.0 514.0 Interest 73.8 192.8 160.9 130.5 105.0 * Provisional Payments in the amounts of USD2.2 billion for the SOEs, USD938 million for the local administrations, USD300 million for the extrabudgetary funds and USD436.2 million for the investment and development banks are expected to be made between the last quarter of 2004 and 2008 (Graph 37). 12 Projections are based on commitments and they are calculated by using 06/30/2004 dated cross rates. Given the guaranteed debt service projection of USD264 million for extrabudgetary funds, USD1.4 billion for the SOEs, USD701.7 million for the investment and development banks and USD393.5 million for the local administrations, a total of USD2.8 billion principal and interest payments are expected to be made for the period 2009 and on. 55 Formatted: Bullets and Numbering Graph 37: Guaranteed External Debt Servicing Projections by Budget Categories* 1200 million $ 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct-Dec 04 2005 2006 2007 2008 Dev. & Inv. Banks 7.3 130.7 137.1 82.8 78.4 EBFs 47.3 94.3 57.2 52.0 49.5 Local Administrations 97.4 295.1 241.6 178.8 124.7 319.6 589.3 469.5 427.8 366.4 SOEs * Provisional 56 7 FINANCIAL RECEIVABLES 13 7.1 TREASURY RECEIVABLES STOCK The stock of receivables were TL50.2 quadrillion by the end of 2003 while it increased to TL67.4 quadrillion by the end of 2004 (Table 33). Increase in the debt of Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF) to Treasury constituted 87 percent of this TL17.2 quadrillion increase. Table 33: Treasury Receivables Stock (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage X EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS 31,040 61.9 45,746 67.9 X X X X X X X X X LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS SOEs BANKS (*) ANNEXED BUDGET NON PROFIT INSTITUTIONS NON BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NON MONETARY INSTITUTIONS GENERAL BUDGET REGULARTY BODIES 12,109 5,377 1,281 112 64 54 70 51 0.4 24.1 10.7 2.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 14,455 5,439 1,347 95 123 52 79 48 0.4 21.5 8.1 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TOTAL 50,159 100 67,385 100 (*) Includes investment, development, private and public banks. The proportion of extra budgetary funds was 62 percent by the end of 2003 whereas it increased to 68 percent by the end of 2004. The main reason for this increase, as indicated above, was a jump in the debt of SDIF to Treasury. In this context, by the end of 2004, proportions of local administrations and SOEs in Treasury receivables stock decreased to 22 percent and 8 percent respectively (Table 33, Graph 38). 13 Receivable stock and collection figures are provisional. 57 Graph 38 :Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Budget Type 2004 2003 Local Admin. 24.1% SOEs 10.7% Banks (*) Other 2.6% 0.7% Local Admin. 21.5% SOEs 8.1% Banks (*) Other 2.0% 0.6% Extra Budgetary Funds 67.9% Extra Budgetary Funds 61.9% (*) Includes investment, development, private and public banks. By the end of 2004, Treasury receivables stock due to on lent domestic debt increased by 50 percent compared to end of 2003 and reached TL45.2 quadrillion. During that period, receivable stock due to external debts which also includes buildoperate-transfer projects increased by 11 percent and reached TL22.1 quadrillion (Table 34). Table 34: Breakdown of Treasury Receivables Stock by Sources (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage EXTERNAL DEBT - On-Lent - Guaranteed DOMESTIC DEBT BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER PROJECTS 16,937 9,322 7,614 30,243 2,979 33.8 18.6 15.2 60.3 5.9 18,371 9,386 8,984 45,238 3,776 27.3 13.9 13.3 67.1 5.6 TOTAL 50,159 100 67,385 100 (*) Includes investment, development, private and public banks. When the breakdown of the receivables stock is analyzed by sources, it can be seen that proportion of on lent domestic debt which was 60 percent by the end of 2003 increased to 67 percent by the end of 2004. Share of undertaken guarantees and on lent external debt which was 34 percent by the end of 2003 decreased to 27 percent by the end of 2004. By the end of 2004, share of receivables due to build-operatetransfer projects which were 6 percent at the end of 2003 remained at the same level (Table 34, Graph 39). 58 Graph 39: Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Sources 2004 2003 On-Lent 18.6% Guaranteed 15.2% Guaranteed 13.3% On-Lent 13.9% BOT Projects 5.9% BOT Projects 5.6% Domestic Debt 60.3% Domestic Debt 67.1% SDIF which had the highest share of 56 percent by the end of 2003 increased its share to 65 percent by the end of 2004. Municipality of İzmit Greater City followed SDIF with 7 percent and during that period proportion of the municipality in total remained the same. In the same period while proportion of Electricity Production Inc. decreased from 5 percent to 3 percent, proportion of Municipality of Ankara Greater City was 3 percent (Graph 40). Graph 40: Breakdown of Receivables Stock by Institutions 2003 2004 56% 65% 7% 26% Savings Deposit Insure Fund Electricity Production Inc. Munic. of Ankara Greater City 3% 3% 5% 22% Munic. of İzmit Greater City Public Participation Fund Other Savings Deposit Insure Fund Electricity Production Inc. Other 3% 3% 7% Munic. of İzmit Greater City Munic. of Ankara Greater City Proportion of outstanding overdue receivables which constituted 36 percent of receivables stock by the end of 2003 increased to 47 percent by the end of 2004 (Table 35). 59 Table 35: Breakdown of Treasury Receivables Stock (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage X OUTSTANDING OVERDUE RECEIVABLES 17,988 36 31,395 47 X PROJECTED RECEIVABLES 32,171 64 35,990 53 50,159 100 67,385 100 TOTAL 7.2 OUTSTANDING OVERDUE RECEIVABLES Outstanding overdue receivables which were TL18 quadrillion by the end of 2003 increased about 75 percent and reached TL31.4 quadrillion in 2004 (Table 36). 69 percent of TL13.4 quadrillion increases in outstanding overdue receivables were due to increase in outstanding overdue debt of SDIF to Treasury. Municipality of İzmir Greater City which had no outstanding overdue receivables by the end of 2003 had TL1.1 quadrillion outstanding overdue debts by the end of 2004. This development was second important effect of increase in outstanding overdue receivables. On the other hand in the mentioned period, outstanding overdue debt stock of Municipality of İzmit Greater City had increased approximately to TL928 trillion. Table 36: Outstanding Overdue Receivables (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS X LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS X SOEs X ANNEXED BUDGET X NON MONETARY INSTITUTIONS TOTAL 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage 10,937 6,580 60.8 36.6 20,224 10,519 64.4 33.5 433 21 17 2.4 0.1 0.1 596 19 38 1.9 0.1 0.1 17,988 100 31,395 100 Extra budgetary funds continue to have the largest proportion in outstanding overdue receivables in 2004 like in 2003; their proportion which was 61 percent by the end of 2003 increased to 64 by the end of 2004. On the other hand, proportion of local administrations which was 37 percent by the end of 2003 decreased to 34 percent (Table 36, Graph 41). 60 Graph 41: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock by Budget Type Extra Budgetary Funds 60.8% Extra Budgetary Funds 64.4% 2003 Local Admin. 36.6% Other 2.6% 2004 Local Admin. 33.5% Other 2.1% When the breakdown of outstanding overdue receivables stock is analyzed by sources, by the end of 2004 on lent domestic debts were increased 86 percent compared to those by the end of 2003 and reached TL19.7 quadrillion. In the mentioned period, external debt including build-operate-transfer projects had increased by 55 percent and reached TL11.7 quadrillion (Table 37). Table 37: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables by Source (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage EXTERNAL DEBT - On-Lent - Guaranteed DOMESTIC DEBT BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER PROJECTS 4,709 945 3,764 10,455 2,824 26.2 5.3 20.9 58.1 15.7 8,021 1,378 6,642 19,716 3,658 25.5 4.4 21.2 62.8 11.7 TOTAL 17,988 100.0 31,395 100.0 By the end of 2003 outstanding overdue receivables due to domestic debt had the highest proportion with 58 percent and their proportion increased to 63 percent by the end of 2004. In the mentioned period while proportion of undertaken guarantees and on lent external debt remained almost the same, outstanding overdue receivables due to build-operate-transfer projects decreased from 16 percent to 12 percent (Table 37, Graph 42). 61 Graph 42: Breakdown of Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock by Sources 2004 2003 Domestic Debt 58.1% Domestic Debt 62.8% BOTs 15.7% BOTs 11.7% On-Lent 5.3% Guaranteed 20.9% Guaranteed 21.2% On-Lent 4.4% As a result of these developments, SDIF which had the highest share of 51 percent in outstanding overdue receivables by the end of 2003 increased its share to 58 percent by the end of 2004. Municipality of İzmit Greater City which had the second highest share of 19 percent by the end of 2003 decreased its share to 14 percent. Share of abolished Public Participation Fund decreased from 9 percent to 5 percent and share of Gaziantep Water and Sewerage Administration decreased from 4 percent to 3 percent. Municipality of İzmir Greater City which had no outstanding overdue receivables by the end of 2003 had 4 percent share by the end of 2004 (Graph 43). Graph 43: Outstanding Overdue Receivables Stock 2003 2004 58% 19% 51% 13% 4% 4% 14% 9% 16% 3% 4% 5% Savings Deposit Insure Fund Munic. of İzmit Greater City Savings Deposit Insure Fund Munic. of İzmit Greater City Public Participation Fund GASKİ Public Participation Fund Munic. of İzmir Greater City Munic. of Adana Greater City Other GASKİ Other 62 7.3 PROJECTED RECEIVABLES Projected receivables which were TL32 quadrillion by the end of 2003 increased to TL36 quadrillion by the end of 2004. In the mentioned period projected receivables from extra budgetary funds increased about TL5.4 quadrillion and reached TL26 quadrillion. TL2.3 quadrillion of this increase was due to on lent GDBSs which were issued to SDIF during the process of takening over of Pamukbank by T. Halk Bank. In the mentioned period, projected receivables from local administrations decreased TL1.6 quadrillion and became TL3.9 quadrillion (Table 38). Table 38: The Stock of Projected Receivables (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X X X X X X X X 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS SOEs BANKS ANNEXED BUDGET NON PROFIT INSTITUTIONS NON BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NON MONETARY INSTITUTIONS GENERAL BUDGET REGULARTY BODIES 20,103 5,528 4,945 1,281 90 64 54 53 51 0.4 62.5 17.2 15.4 4.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 25,522 3,936 4,843 1,347 77 123 52 41 48 0.4 70.9 10.9 13.5 3.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TOTAL 32,171 100 35,990 100 Extra budgetary funds which had 63 percent share in projected receivables by the end of 2003 had higher share with 71 percent by the end of 2004. In the mentioned period, share of local administrations decreased from 17 percent to 11 percent and share of SOEs decreased from 15 percent to 14 percent (Table 38, Graph 44). Graph 44: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Budget Type Extra Budgetary Funds 62.5% Other 5.0% 2003 SOEs 15.4% Extra Budgetary Funds 70.9% Local Admin. 17.2% Other 4.7% 63 2004 SOEs 13.5% Local Admin. 10.9% By the end of 2004, while projected receivables due to external debt including build-operate-transfer projects diminished by TL1.9 quadrillion and became TL10.5 quadrillion, projected receivable due to on lent domestic debt rose by TL5.7 quadrillion and reached TL25.5 quadrillion (Table 39). Table 39: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Source (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage EXTERNAL DEBT - On-Lent - Guaranteed DOMESTIC DEBT BUILD-OPERATE-TRANSFER PROJECTS 12,227 8,377 3,850 19,788 155 38.0 26.0 12.0 61.5 0.5 10,350 8,008 2,342 25,522 117 28.8 22.3 6.5 70.9 0.3 TOTAL 32,171 100 35,990 100 By the end of 2004, share of domestic debts in projected receivables stock increased by 9 points compared to end of 2003 and reached 71 percent while the proportion of undertaken guarantees and on lent external debt decreased by 10 points and became 29 percent. The main reason of the decline in projected receivables due to external debt was the decrease in projected receivables due to undertaken guarantees. By the end of 2004, built-operate-transfer projects constituted 0.3 percent of projected receivables stock (Table 39, Graph 45). Graph 45: Breakdown of Projected Receivables by Source Domestic Debt 61.5% 2003 Domestic Debt 70.9% 2004 BOTs 0.3% BOTs 0.5% Guaranteed 12.0% On-Lent 26.0% Guaranteed 6.5% On-Lent 22.3% By the end of 2004, in projected receivables stock, while mixed interest receivables increased by TL5.6 quadrillion compared to end of 2003, interest free receivables decreased by TL1.1 quadrillion. In the mentioned period, variable and fixed interest receivables decreased by TL487 trillion and TL235 trillion respectively (Table 40). 64 Table 40: Interest Composition of Projected Receivables (Trillion TL) 2003 X EXTERNAL DEBT - On-Lent - Guaranteed X DOMESTIC DEBT X BOT PROJECTS X TOTAL 2004 Interest - Free 4,126 1,541 2,585 0 155 Fixed 5,104 5,082 22 0 0 Variable 2,501 1,281 1,220 0 0 Mixed (*) 497 473 24 19,788 0 Interest - Free 3,044 1,487 1,557 0 117 Fixed 4,869 4,789 80 0 0 Variable 2,014 1,331 683 0 0 Mixed (*) 423 400 23 25,522 0 4,281 5,104 2,501 20,285 3,161 4,869 2,014 25,945 (*) Varies according to commitment provisions. By the end of 2004, while mixed interest receivables constitute about 72 percent of stock, about 14 percent was composed of by fixed interests. Shares of interest free and variable interest receivables were about 9 percent and 6 percent respectively (Table 40, Graph 46). Graph 46: Interest Composition of Projected Receivables 2003 2004 Interest Free 13.3% Interest Free 8.8% Fixed 15.9% Fixed 13.5% Variable 5.6% Mixed (*) 63.1% Variable 7.8% Mixed (*) 72.1% (*) Varies according to commitment provisions. 7.4 COLLECTIONS In 2004 Treasury’s collections from receivables were TL1.5 quadrillion. In the mentioned period, there were TL589 trillion collections from SOEs, TL411 trillion from extra budgetary funds, TL368 trillion from local administrations and TL140 trillion from banks (Table 41). 65 Table 41: Breakdown of Collections by Borrower (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X X X X X X X X 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS SOEs BANKS ANNEXED BUDGET NON PROFIT INSTITUTIONS NON BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NON MONETARY INSTITUTIONS GENERAL BUDGET REGULARTY BODIES 36 473 1,080 340 17 1 5 17 1 0 2 24 55 17 1 0 0 1 0 0 411 368 589 140 20 3 5 1 1 0 27 24 38 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 1,970 100 1,538 100 While in 2003, 54.8 percent of the total collection was realized from SOEs, in 2004 this ratio decreased to 38.8 percent. In the mentioned period while collection realized from extra budgetary funds increased from 1.8 percent to 26.8 percent, share of collections realized from local administrations remained same (Graph 47). The main reason of the increase in the collections from extra budgetary funds in 2004 was the prepayment of all projected debts of Privatization Administration to Treasury. In 2004, 21 percent of collections was realized from Privatization Administration while 20 percent was realized from Electricity Production Inc. (EÜAŞ). Graph 47: Breakdown of Collections by Institutions 54.8 60 50 38.3 % 40 30 24.0 23.9 26.8 20 10 1.8 2.1 1.9 0 2003 SOEs Local Admin. 2004 Extra Budgetary Funds Other While 96.5 percent of collections in 2003 was paid by beneficiary, in 2004 this ratio became 90.1 percent. In the mentioned period, while payment by beneficiary decreased by TL515 trillion, cutting from tax share receivables by the Ministry of Finance increased by TL60 trillion (Table 42). 66 Table 42: Breakdown of Collections by Source (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X X X X X X X X PAYMENT BY BENEFICIARY TAX SHARE RECEIVABLES (MIN.OF.FINANCE) LAW NUMBER 6183 TAX SHARE RECEIVABLES (İLLERBANK) OFFSET TO DUTY LOSSES TRANSFERRED AMOUNT FROM ANOTHER BENEFICIARY OFFSET TO BUDGET APPROPRIATION OFFSET TO DRAWING AMOUNT TOTAL 2004 Percentage 1.901 46 7 2 0 9 5 0 1.970 Amount 96,5 2,3 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,5 0,3 0,0 100,0 Percentage 1.386 106 11 0 35 0 0 0 1.538 90,1 6,9 0,7 0,0 2,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 100,0 In the year of 2003, the highest beneficiary payment was performed by SOEs, whereas local administrations followed them by an amount of TL413 trillion. In the year of 2004, TL547 trillion and TL411 trillion were largest payments contributed by SOEs and EBFs respectively. (Table 43). Table 43: Breakdown of Beneficiary Payments by Source (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS X LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS X SOEs X X X X X BANKS ANNEXED BUDGET NON PROFIT INSTITUTIONS NON BANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NON MONETARY INSTITUTIONS 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage 36 413 1.9 21.7 411 261 29.7 18.8 1,075 56.6 547 39.5 340 12 1 5 17 17.9 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 140 17 3 5 1 10.1 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 X GENERAL BUDGET 1 0.0 1 X REGULARTY BODIES 0 0.0 0 0.0 1,901 100 1,386 100 TOTAL In 2004, 80 percent of collections was for principal repayments and 20 percent was for interest payments, while those were 75 percent and 25 percent respectively by the end of 2003 (Table 44). Table 44: Breakdown of Collection by Type of Payment (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X PRINCIPAL X INTEREST, CHARGE, OVERDUE INTEREST TOTAL 67 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage 1,481 75 1,237 489 25 300 80 20 1,970 100 1,538 100 In 2004, TL159 trillion of total collection was allocated to Risk Account whereas TL1.4 quadrillion was transferred to Treasury Account no. 411 14 (Table 45). Table 45: Breakdown of Collection by Accounts (Trillion TL) 2003 Amount X RİSK ACCOUNT (*) X 411- TREASURY ACCOUNT TOTAL 2004 Percentage Amount Percentage 77 1,892 4 96 159 1,378 10 90 1,970 100 1,538 100 (*) Mentioned figures includes only collection from receivables, does not include on lent and guarantee fees. 14 Collections from receivables stock either belong to Risk Account or to Treasury account no. 411 according to the origin of the commitment. According to this, on lent credits and collections from guarantees that are undertaken before the establishment of Risk Account are transferred to Treasury account no. 411. 68 8 RISK MANAGEMENT 8.1 BENCHMARKS FOR 2005 The Law (No 4749) of March 28, 2002, on the Public Financing and Debt Management and "Regulation on the Principles and Procedures for the Coordination and Administration of Debt and Risk Management", published in the Official Gazette of September 1, 2002, defines the basic principles of debt and risk management as follows: a) the maintenance of a sustainable, transparent and accountable borrowing policy in conformity with monetary and fiscal policies taking account of macroeconomic balances, and b) the fulfillment of financing requirements at the lowest possible cost in the medium and long term in the context of risk level which determined in consideration of domestic and external market conditions and cost factors. The structure of the borrowing is determined by the strategic benchmarks which are in accordance with the risk and cost choice targeted in the debt management. These benchmarks are obligatory for the borrowers and also used for performance measurement. Debt management procedures like additional borrowing and swaps are applied within the framework of these strategic benchmarks which include risk and cost choice. Designed to ensure an increase in transparency of public debt management and effective, performance-based borrowing at minimum cost and at a prudent level of risk, the Undersecretariat of Treasury started to the implementation of strategic benchmarks since 2004. Also, the “Cost at Risk” approach is used in the determination of these strategic benchmarks. 69 Strategic Benchmarks for 2005-2007 Period - To raise funds mainly in TL. - The use fixed rate, TL instruments as the major source of domestic borrowing. - To increase the average maturity of domestic borrowing taking into account market conditions. - To keep a certain level of cash reserves throughout the year to reduce the liquidity risk associated with cash and debt management. 8.2 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF STOCK 8.2.1 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK The average maturity of the cash domestic borrowing realized as 14.7 months at 2004, showing an increase of 3.2 months with respect to the year 2003. In 2004, despite the increase in borrowing maturities, as the IMF credits and the bonds in Compulsory Saving Account, which were followed in cash domestic debt stock, converged to maturity, the average time to maturity of cash domestic debt stock showed a decline of 0.6 months when compared to the end of 2003. In this period, the average time to maturity of non-cash domestic debt stock declined to 5.7 months. In spite of the long term non-cash issuances in this period, the main rationale behind this decline was the convergence of the maturities of noncash domestic debt securities. As of the end of 2004, the average time to maturity of domestic debt stock realized as 20.6 months (Table 46). Table 46: Average Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock (Months) Cash Non-cash Total (*) 2003 2004 12.4 51.2 25.1 11.8 45.5 20.6 (*) Weighted average time to maturity of domestic debt stock, calculated by taking into account the weights of cash and noncash domestic debt stocks and their average time to maturities. 70 8.2.2 AVERAGE TIME TO MATURITY OF EXTERNAL BOND STOCK Average time to maturity of external bond stock which was 5.4 years at the end of 2003 lengthened to 7 years as of the end of 2004 (Table 47). Regarding the external bonds by issue markets; the global bonds which realized at USD12.7 billion at the end of 2003, increased to the amount of USD15.9 billion with the net issues of USD3.2 billion launched during the year. Together with the new issues, the average time to maturity of external bond stock lengthen to 10 years from 8.4 years in 2003. In terms of Euro bonds, USD570 million (Euro400 million) net repayment and approximetely USD1 billion exchange rate appreciation took place in 2004. Thus, the Euro bond stock which was USD13.3 billion at the end of 2003, increased to USD13.8 billion as of the end of 2004. Together with the new issues, the average time to maturity of Euro bond stock lengthened to 3.2 years from 2.8 years in 2003. The Samurai bonds which were in the stock as of the end of 2003 have been totally repaid during 2004. Table 47: Average Time to Maturity of External Bond Stock (Year) X Global Bonds Euro Bonds Samurai Bonds Total 2003 2004 8.4 2.8 0.4 5.4 9.9 3.2 .. 6.8 8.3 DURATION 8.3.1 DURATION OF TL-DENOMINATED CASH DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK Duration of TL-denominated cash domestic debt stock was 5.2 months by the end of 2003. Beginning in the late 2003, with longer borrowing maturities, duration of TL-denominated cash domestic debt stock has lengthen and in the JanuarySeptember 2004 period floated between band of 5-6 months. However, in the last quarter of 2004, especially by the issuance of 3 year fixed-coupon bond in October, 71 duration of TL-denominated cash domestic debt stock has increased over 6 months and lengthen to 6.6 months level by the end of 2004 (Graph 48). The improvement explained above highlighted that the TL-denominated cash domestic debt stock’s sensitivity to interest rate volatility was continued to decrease. This situation means that any change in the market interest rates will be reflected to the TL-denominated cash domestic debt stock in 6.6 month. Graph 48: Duration of the TL-Denominated Cash Domestic Debt Stock (*) 7,0 6,5 Year 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 O ct .0 3 N ov .0 3 D ec .0 3 Ja n. 04 Fe b. 04 M ar .0 4 A pr .0 4 M ay .0 4 Ju n. 04 Ju l.0 4 A ug .0 4 Se p. 04 O ct .0 4 N ov .0 4 D ec .0 4 4,0 (*) Provisional 8.3.2 DURATION OF EXTERNAL BOND STOCK Average duration of the bonds issued by the Treasury in foreign markets was about 4.1 year by the end of 2004 (Graph 49). By the issues made at the beginning of 2004, duration of external bond stock has risen significantly and after January, stayed at a level of 4 year during the year which was at a level of 3.4 by the end of 2003. 72 Graph 49: Duration of the External Bond Stock (*) 4,4 4,2 Year 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 4 ec .0 4 D N ov .0 ct .0 4 O 4 Se p. 04 4 ug .0 A Ju l .0 4 M ay .0 4 Ju n. 04 4 pr .0 A 4 M ar .0 Fe b. 0 Ja n. 04 3 ec .0 3 D N ov .0 O ct .0 3 3,0 (*) Provisional 8.4 REAL INTEREST RATE OF DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK Expected annual compounded real interest rate of domestic debt stock by the end of December 2004, has diminished 2.4 points compared to the end of 2003 and calculated as 9.5 percent. The real interest expectation of the stock, for the January-April 2004 period was realized within the band of 11.2%-12.3%. Due to the developments in international and domestic markets, exchange rate and inflation fluctuations were observed, besides the increase in nominal interest rates especially the increase in exchange rates caused the calculated real interest rate expectations to increase. After June, due to the decrease in exchange rates and nominal interest rates, calculated real inflation expectation on stock showed a decreasing trend. Calculated 11.7 percent as of September, expected real interest rate of domestic debt stock was calculated below 10 percent for October, November and December (Table 48). 73 Table 48: Annual Compounded Real Interest of Total Domestic Debt Stock Jan.-Dec. 2004 (%) (*) March April May June July Total Domestic Debt Stock Public TL FX Denominated/Indexed January February 11,4 6,8 8,5 -1,2 11,2 7,9 8,5 4,6 11,3 7,3 9,6 -4,6 12,3 8,2 10,7 -4,6 16,8 13,2 14,0 9,1 16,5 14,6 15,0 12,4 13,9 11,4 12,5 5,1 August September 12,0 8,5 9,1 4,8 11,7 9,1 8,7 11,6 October November December 9,6 6,8 7,1 4,7 8,4 6,4 7,3 0,8 9,5 7,5 9,0 -2,6 Market TL FX Denominated/Indexed 14,9 19,9 -1,7 13,7 19,4 -6,6 14,2 18,8 -3,1 15,2 18,5 2,3 19,3 19,4 18,9 17,8 19,2 12,1 15,5 17,5 7,3 14,2 15,2 10,4 13,2 15,2 6,0 11,3 14,4 0,2 9,6 13,7 -5,2 10,7 14,6 -4,6 Expected Inflation (**) 12,4 11,8 11,1 10,5 11,2 10,4 10,1 9,7 9,5 8,8 9,2 8,7 (*) Provisional (**) Based on CBT's "Next 12 Months Annual CPI Expectation" Questionnaire 8.5 PUBLIC SECTOR NET DEBT STOCK As of September 2004 public sector net debt stock realized at a total of TL272.5 quadrillion, TL7.2 quadrillion increased compared to the end of June 2004 (Table 49). While gross debt stock has risen 3.4 percent, the total of assets has risen 7.2 percent in this period. Table 49: Public Sector Net Debt Stock (*) Trillion TL 2003 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 72.170 160.586 216.357 251.389 251.494 265.252 272.512 86.183 190.595 257.617 297.696 299.740 317.949 329.270 Rest of the Public Sector B- External Debt 54.152 125.458 154.798 201.319 210.453 215.881 224.509 51.536 122.157 149.870 194.387 203.708 209.119 217.571 2.616 3.300 4.928 6.932 6.746 6.762 6.937 32.031 65.138 102.819 96.378 89.287 102.068 104.762 27.204 55.779 92.880 88.548 82.016 94.374 97.236 Rest of the Public Sector 4.828 9.359 9.939 7.830 7.271 7.695 7.525 II- Central Bank Net Assets Central Government 2002 l- Total Public Sector Debt Stock (Gross) Central Government 2001 Total Public Sector Net Debt (I-II-III-IV) A-Domestic Debt 2000 11.004 22.854 25.375 24.733 24.321 27.423 28.739 Net Foreign Assets 7.598 -2.324 13.660 17.262 17.111 22.460 25.430 Other Asset and Obligations (Net) 3.406 25.178 11.715 7.471 7.210 4.963 3.309 III- Public Sector Deposits 2.647 4.973 10.931 12.645 14.015 14.183 15.802 Central Government 1.038 1.213 5.099 5.053 6.118 6.751 7.497 Rest of the Public Sector 1.609 3.760 5.832 7.591 7.897 7.433 8.306 362 2.182 4.954 8.929 9.909 11.091 12.217 IV-Unemployment Insurance Fund Net Assets Memo Items X Net External Debt Stock 24.433 67.461 89.159 79.115 72.176 79.608 79.332 X Net Domestic Debt Stock 47.737 93.125 127.198 172.274 179.319 185.643 193.180 (*)Provisional As shown in the below chart, the share of public sector net debt stock in GNP presents a falling trend since the year 2002, after reaching its peak level of 91 percent 74 in 2001. As the nominal value of the net debt stock increased, its share in the economy decreased, indicating a reduction in the debt burden. The ratio of public sector net debt stock to GNP which was 78.7 percent at the end of 2002 declined to 70.5 percent as of the end of 2003. For the year 2004, the ratio of public sector net debt stock was expected to decline roughly 6.5 points compared to the previous year level and fall to 64-65 percent of GNP. Underlying cause of this development was the positive reflection of high primary surplus performance together with the fiscal and monetary policies carried out in 2004 on interest and exchange rates in the market. Graph 50: Public Sector Net Debt Stock (*) (Quadrillion TL) 400 (%) 100 91.0 78.7 300 70.5 60 57.5 200 80 40 100 20 0 0 2000 Net External Debt Stock 2001 2002 Net Domestic Debt Stock *Provisional 75 2003 Public Net Debt Stock/GNP(%) APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS Allocation of External Debt: A foreign financing facility obtained by the Undersecretariat from any foreign financing source and disbursed by the general/annexed budget institutions in accordance with the purpose of the related agreement in order to promote development in various sectors of the economy or/and to meet the financial requirement. Benchmark Issuance (Security): Government Domestic Borrowing Securities (GDBSs) designated by the Undersecretariat of Treasury for which the Primary Dealers are obliged to provide price quotations in the secondary markets. GDBSs that have high liquidity in the secondary markets are also called benchmark securities. Build-Operate Model: A project financing model where public investments requiring advanced technology, know-how and high capital investments are made through the participation of private sector and foreign capital, in other words, with non budgetary funds and the ownership of the facilities remains on the investors. Build-Operate-Transfer Model: A project financing model where public investments requiring advanced technology, know-how and high capital investments are made through the participation of private sector and foreign capital, in other words, with non budgetary funds, and the investor company transfers the facilities after the expiry date of the agreement to the State at no cost and debt free. Cash Borrowing: Type of borrowing that generates cash inflow for the Treasury at the time of issuance. Direct Issuance Method: A method of issuance performed by the Treasury as a means of financing the budget to a specific counterparty at a pre-determined amount. Disbursement of Project Loans: Calculated on the basis of total cash withdrawals for a period from project credits received either during that period and/or previous ones. Duration: It is a measure of sensitivity of bond price to interest rate movements. Although there are different types of duration, government debt offices use 76 “Macauley Duration” to measure of sensitivity of bond price to interest rate movements. Macauley Duration calculates the duration that a bond is affected by interest rate movements. The government is not affected by the interest rate movements after the issuance of a discounted bond (a bond that pays interest only at maturity), it is affected at maturity when the debt is renewed. The duration of a discounted bond is equal to the time to maturity whereas the duration of a fixed couponed bond is equal to the formula in Appendix 2. Appendix 2 contains detailed information related to duration. Early Redemption: The repayment of a debt, including its accrued interest and principal, prior to its date of maturity. EMBI and EMBI+ Indices: EMBI and EMBI+ (Emerging Market Bond Index) are indices developed by JP Morgan in order to monitor emerging markets bonds’ performances. These indices act as benchmarks facilitating investors to measure their own portfolio performances and make risk-yield analyses. The fact that the bonds constituting the index were actually chosen deliberately among the most liquid bonds ensures that the index reflects the market accurately and the investors can make up portfolios similar to the indices. EMBI had been calculated since 31st of December 1990 as an index monitoring yields on USD denominated Brady and similar re-structured bonds of emerging markets, and was discontinued as of 28th of June 2002. EMBI+ has been calculated since 31st of December 1993 as an extension of EMBI. EMBI+, unlike EMBI, includes not only the Brady bonds, but also the liquid international bonds, domestic bonds and other debts of emerging market countries. There is a strong correlation between these two indices. Country weights in the EMBI+ index depend on the liquidity of the underlying bonds and total market capitalization of the particular country’s bonds. Government Domestic Borrowing Security (GDBS): Securities issued in the domestic markets by the Treasury. Grant: Financial aid in kind and/or in cash, obtained by Republic of Turkey from any external financing source without any obligation of repayment and the financial aid in cash provided by Republic of Turkey to foreign countries. 77 Gross Borrowing: The total of domestic and foreign borrowing. Net Borrowing: The difference between total gross borrowing (domestic and foreign) and the principal payments. Non-Cash Borrowing: Type of borrowing that does not generate any cash inflow for the Treasury at the time of issuance. Offsetting Transactions: Issuing GDBSs instead of paying out principal and/or interest of GDBSs. On-account Transactions: The issuance of new GDBSs in place of the principal and/or accrued interest of another GDBSs issued before. Onlending of External Debt:External financing obtained by the Undersecretariat of Treasury from any foreign financing source and onlent to the public agencies and establishments not included in the general and annexed budget and to investment and development banks without being bound by the terms and conditions of the related agreement when necessary, in order to promote development in various sectors of the economy and/or to meet the financial requirements Primary Dealership System: It is a system which accords rights and imposes obligations to banks which are selected according to predetermined criteria in order to increase the efficiency of GDBS auctions and the secondary market of those securities. Program Financing: A financing facility obtained from any external financing source by the Treasury, either directly or under its guarantee, in order to meet the public finance requirement within the framework of macroeconomic programs of the country. Project Financing: Financing facility obtained from an external financing source for realization of projects. Project Loans Provided: Calculated on the basis of the actual receipt of amounts committed in project credit agreements signed during the period of the agreement. Risk Account: Undersecretariat of Treasury’s account which is established at the Central Bank of Turkey in accordance with the provisions of Law no. 4749 “Law on 78 Regulating Public Finance and Debt Management.” All the amounts which are paid by the Undersecreatariat of Treasury for the Treasury Guarantees and payments within the context of risk management that are not possible to foresee beforehand are met from the risk account. This account cannot be used for any purpose other than those conditions indicated in the Law. Special Category Government Domestic Borrowing Securities Issued for Onlending Purposes: Securities issued by the Treasury for public institutions by debiting those institutions. Special Category Government Domestic Borrowing Securities: Securities which have been issued under the relevant legislation and the Budget Laws of the relevant year and against which no cash inflow is obtained. Swap: The financial instrument which enables to change the cash-flows regarding the public debt directly or indirectly between the Treasury and its counterparties. Switching: The switching of existing securities with another security. Tap Method: The issuance method by which GDBSs are tendered at pre-determined prices via the Central Bank. Transfer of External Debt: External financing facility which is obtained by the Undersecretariat of Treasury from any foreign financing source and transferred to the public agencies and establishments which are not included in the general and annexed budget and to banks in order to promote development in various sectors of the economy or/and to meet the financial requirements. The facility is transferred together with the financial terms and conditions of the related agreement, provided that such establishments shall be the principal debtor. Transfer of Operation Right: The operation of a publicly owned facility by private companies for a specific period of time on condition that it remains public property. Treasury Receivables: Claims arising from Treasury Guarantees provided for financing facilities obtained from any foreign financing source or from onlending of such facilities or from the transactions which are not mentioned above, but stem from relevant legislation and result in undertaking of payments by the Treasury and/or 79 claims from the Government Domestic Borrowing Securities issued by the Treasury for onlending purposes. Treasury Counter – Guarantee: Guarantees provided against the guarantees provided by external financing sources within the framework of guarantee for the financing facilities provided from international markets by state economic enterprises, establishments subject to provisions of private law with more than 50percent of their capital belonging to the state, funds, state banks, investment and development banks, municipalities of greater cities, municipalities and establishments affiliated to municipalities, and other local government agencies as debtors. Treasury counter guarantees also cover guarantees provided against the guarantees by a foreign financing source with regard to projects to be realized within build-operate-transfer, build-operate, transfer of operational right and similar financing models. Those guarantees are limited with the Treasury Guarantees envisioned in the legislation and conditions to be discussed by the Undersecretariat within the framework of guarantee programs allocated by any foreign financing source. Treasury Country Guarantee: Guarantees provided for repayment of financing taken from any external financing source by foreign countries. Treasury Guarantees: Treasury Reimbursement Guarantee, Treasury Investment Guarantee, Treasury Counter – Guarantee and Treasury Country Guarantee or any one of these. Treasury Investment Guarantee: Guarantees provided for build-operate-transfer, build-operate, transfer of operational right and similar financing models in accordance with the provisions of the legislation and limited with these. Treasury Reimbursement Guarantee: Guarantees provided for reimbursement of external debt provided from external financing facility by state economic enterprises, establishments subject to provisions of private law with more than 50 percent of their capital belonging to the state, funds, state banks, investment and development banks, municipalities of greater cities, municipalities and establishments affiliated to municipalities, and other local government agencies. 80 Zero- Coupon (Discounted) Bonds: Fixed income instruments that are sold at a discounted price on the date of issuance and, that pays interest only at maturity, which is equivalent to the difference between the discounted price and the nominal price. 81 APPENDIX 2: METHODOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS AND EXPLANATIONS REGARDING THE CALCULATION OF DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK REEL INTEREST RATES • The real interest rate of total domestic debt stock reflects the weighted average real interest rate of each security in the total domestic debt stock, with its stock amount (including currency differences) as weights. • Formula used in the computation of real interest rates is the nominal interest rates discounted with the term inflation rate. Term Real Interest Rate = [(1+Nominal Term Interest Rate)/(1+Term Inflation Rate)]1 The “Term inflation” reflects the inflation rate realized between the borrowing date and today; and inflation expectations as mentioned below for the remaining period, till the date the security matures. • In the computations, for inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used. For the related variables as of the stock date, the annual inflation expectation figures for the next twelve months announced by the Central Bank of Turkey’s “Inflation Expectation Questionnaire” are taken into consideration. The distribution of annual rate is done according to the previous year’s distribution. • The formula used for FX indexed and FX denominated securities is as follows: Term Real Interest Rate = [(1+FX Denom. Nominal Interest Rate)*(1+Term Exchange Rate Change)/(1+Term Inflation Rate)]-1 • It was assumed that the changes in the foreign exchange rates will be in line with the changes in inflation rate from the end of realization period till the security matures. • It was assumed that the Euro / USD parity will remain constant at its value as of the stock date. 82 • For FX Denominated and FX indexed securities with coupon payments, the exchange rates used in the beginning of the period are the selling rate which is announced by Central Bank of Turkey. The exchange rates related to the end of the coupon period are determined according to the set of exchange rates established in line with the assumptions and explanations mentioned above. • In computations for all securities, the nominal term interest rate is taken as the coupon rate for the existing coupon period as of the stock date. • In the computation of real interest rates for floating rate notes (FRN), premium/discount amounts for the securities for the first issues, and the difference between the price accepted at the auction and the price including accrued interest for the re-issued securities per coupon are added to the return of the coupon. For the current coupons, the real interest rate determined for related period is used. For the rest of the announced coupons, the real interest rate is computed in line with the inflation expectation for the beginning of the current coupon period. • For the swap securities with a maturity of 3 and 5 years, the IRR for the related cash flows which consists of the principal and coupons reflecting the last realized coupon rate of LIBOR + 2.25 and the currency difference has been calculated. As in FRN’s discounted amounts for the selling prices of securities are added to the return of the coupon. • In all computations, one month is taken as 30 days. However, February 2004 is 29 days, whereas the others are 28 days. 83 METHODOLOGY OF THE PUBLIC NET DEBT STOCK CALCULATION The methodology used to calculate the net debt of the public sector, which is assessed in Turkish Lira, consists of four basic parts: the "Public Sector Gross Debt Stock"; the "Central Bank Net Assets", "Public Sector Deposits" and “Unemployment Insurance Fund Net Assets”. Total Public Sector Gross Debt (TPSGD): This item is obtained by adding gross domestic and external debt stock figures of consolidated budget announced by the Treasury on monthly bases to gross domestic and external debt stock figures of SOE’s, local administrations and extra-budgetary funds provided on quarterly bases. Central Bank Net Assets (CBRTNA): This item consists of the total of net foreign assets and net value of other assets and liabilities of the Central Bank. Public Sector Deposits (PSD): In addition to Treasury deposits, this item also includes the total deposits of institutions and funds under consolidated budget, SOE’s, local administrations and extra-budgetary funds. Unemployment Insurance Fund Net Assets (UIFNA): It is composed of total Unemployment Insurance Fund’s revenue that is netted out by its expenditures. In this framework, “Public Sector Net Debt” is calculated by deducting Central Bank net assets, public deposits and Unemployment Insurance Fund’s net assets from total public sector gross debt stock. PSNDS=TPSGD-CBRTNA-PSD-UIFNA 84 EXPLANATIONS AND METHODOLOGY REGARDING BENCHMARK BORROWING POLICIES AND COST-AT-RISK APPROACH The basic objective in risk analysis-based public debt management is to borrow at the minimum cost and at a prudent level of risk. This means developing borrowing strategies that, on the one hand, conform to macro-economic policies and, on the other, keep costs to a minimum. This brings a trade-off between exposure to risks and the cost of borrowing. Giving priority to one of these objectives has a great importance on constructing the borrowing policy (defining the structure of borrowing instruments, maturity structure etc.). The benchmark borrowing strategy, by taking into account the macroeconomic parameters and market conditions, is an instrument used to manage the effects of trade-off between exposure to risks and cost of borrowing mentioned above on public debt management in an efficient way. In this context, benchmark borrowing policies determines the basic variables in medium and long term borrowing. The strategic benchmarks provide the decision makers and the practitioners with the means for coordination between macroeconomic policies and borrowing policies, restriction to the extent possible of risk levels within determined risk parameters, measurement of the performance of borrowing policy and risk control. A method known as “Cost-at-Risk” (C@R) in literature has been adopted to be able to develop the strategic benchmark policies. The concept of “cost” and “costat-risk” can be defined in different ways. The simplest definition for the cost of borrowing is the interest paid on debts. On the other hand, it is possible to calculate different costs for the same period by taking into consideration the interest cost in accrual basis rather than the interest paid in cash. It is also possible to use the change in the mark-to-market value of the debt stock as a measure of cost for a specific period. The increase in the mark-to-market value of public debt as a measure of cost is used by several countries’ public debt managers and this approach alleviates the 85 problems associated with the timing of costs. However, the change in the value of debt as a result of market movements do not actually create a real cost for debt offices who do not conduct frequent secondary market transactions such as buybacks, swaps etc. In the framework of Turkey’s budgetary regulations, the change in the principal value of FX-denominated bonds are not treated as interest expenditure. To take this into account and to be able to assess the costs of FX-denominated debt more accurately; the most appropriate measure of “cost of debt” was set as the interest costs in accrual basis plus the changes in debt amortization (principal payments) due to exchange rate movements for foreign currency denominated (or linked) debt. In the context of Cost-at-Risk approach, with a time-series model, basic macroeconomic variables related to debt management were simulated and then a number of macroeconomic scenarios were produced by imposing stochastic shocks. After that, a “cash-flow model” has been developed to be able to calculate the future cash flows to be generated by borrowing instruments that have different maturity, interest type (variable/fixed) and currency composition structures. Then, the random macro scenarios created through the macroeconomic simulation model were transferred to this cash flow module. Alternative borrowing strategies were created and tested under these scenarios and their cost-risk performances were determined. Finally, the expected costs and risks of alternative borrowing strategies are plotted to efficient frontier and with regard to the cost and risk choice of the management, the optimum benchmark borrowing strategy is determined. 86 EXPLANATIONS ABOUT “DURATION” AND METHOD “Duration” is a measurement of a bond’s price fluctuations stemming from interest rate changes. Even though there are different types of duration definitions, to determine the sensitivity of the debt redemptions to the changes in interest rates debt managements of the states calculate their debt stock’s “Macaulay Duration” For any given security, “Macaulay Duration” is the weighted average maturity which is calculated by weighted present value of the cash payments that will be done in the future. The formula of Macaulay Duration is as follows: n ∑ t * PV (Ct ) MD (Macaulay Duration) = t =1 n ∑ PV (Ct ) t =1 n: number of periods Ct: cash payment at period t PV(Ct): Present Value of Ct payment ( PV(Ct) = 1 i: periodic interest rate ) (1 + i) t Instruments Used for Borrowing and Duration “Macaulay Duration” shows a security’s time needed to be affected from interest rate changes. When the government makes a discounted bond issue, the interest rate changes occurring after the issue date does not affect the government until the maturity date. The interest rate changes affect the government only at the maturity date when the renewal of debt has come. However, while the duration of discounted bonds is equal to time to maturity, fixed-coupon bonds’ duration which are used for domestic and external borrowing is calculated by the formula cited above. For example, a discounted security’s duration is 6 month of which time to maturity is 6 month. However, average maturity (duration) of a yearly 8 percent interest rate, 7 percent yield; 4-year bonds duration is calculated as 3.6 years. On the other hand, duration of the floating rate bonds is perceived as the interest (coupon) period to the next coupon period and the formula above is not applied. For 87 example, for the Treasury’s government bonds which have quarterly coupon payments and indexed to 3 month T-bill interest rate, duration is 3 months at the beginning of the coupon period. If any changes occur in the market interest rates after the settlement of coupon interest rate, those changes will be reflected to the value of the bond only 3 months later. Debt Stock and Duration The duration of debt stock shows the time-period needed to be affected from any interest rate. Duration of debt stock is figured out by calculating the duration of each bond in the stock and weightening by their shares in the stock. A debt stock with a longer duration is affected in a longer time period from the interest rate changes and when compared to a stock with a shorter duration has less sensitivity to the fluctuations at interest rates. Also, a long duration debt stock means that the share of long term, fixed-rate instruments is high within the stock. Borrowing with fixed rate and long term instruments when the long-term interest rates are above the short-term rates, increases the cost of borrowing. For that reason, some countries try to hold their duration of debt stock in a given band. In this context, while the lower limit of the duration restrains the volatility of debt redemptions, on the other hand the upper limit constraints borrowing with higher costs. When the duration is monitored periodically, despite it indicates how the debt’s interest rate sensitivity level changes, it doesn’t explain the magnitude of this change solely. For example, a decrease in the average duration of debt from 3 months to 2 months explains the interest rate sensitivity has increased but this 2 months duration doesn’t clarify how much the debt payments will be affected against a one basis point change increase in the interest rates. 88 APPENDIX 2: PUBLIC FINANCE DATA 1. Table 50 : Public Sector Net Debt Stock 2. Table 51: FX and Interest Rate Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock 3. Table 52: Holders of Consolidated Budget of Debt Stock 4. Table 53: Domestic Debt Stock 1990-2004 5. Table 54: Outstanding External Debt By Borrower 6. Table 55: Outstanding External Debt By Lender 7. Table 56: Outstandig Bond Stock 8. Table 57: Exchange Rate Effect and Currency Composition of Outstanding External Debt 9. Table 58: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock 10. Table 59: Payments Undertaken Due to Treasury Guarantees 11. Table 60: Projects That Has Been Guaranteed By the Treasury 12. Table 61: The Stock of Receivables as of the end of 2004 13. Table 62: Outstanding Overdue Receivables 14. Table 63: Collections in 1997- 2004 15. Table 64: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations 16. Table 65: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations 89 Table 50: Public Sector Net Debt Stock(*) Trillion TL 2001 Q3 2001 2002 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 72,170 84,694 128,312 155,049 160,586 163,660 191,411 208,898 216,357 233,416 231,565 234,096 251,389 251,494 265,252 272,512 86,183 103,112 148,863 180,290 190,595 196,319 223,744 244,399 257,617 275,481 273,824 276,362 297,696 299,740 317,949 329,270 A-Domestic Debt 54,152 53,672 93,070 108,597 125,458 123,519 129,906 144,084 154,798 167,555 180,094 183,960 201,319 210,453 215,881 224,509 51,536 50,851 90,332 105,769 122,157 120,298 126,831 140,290 149,870 162,558 175,270 178,712 194,387 203,708 209,119 217,571 2,616 2,821 2,738 2,828 3,300 3,221 3,075 3,794 4,928 4,997 4,824 5,248 6,932 6,746 6,762 6,937 32,031 49,440 55,792 71,694 65,138 72,799 93,838 100,315 102,819 107,927 93,730 92,402 96,378 89,287 102,068 104,762 B- External Debt Central Government 2001 Q2 l- Total Public Sector Debt Stock (Gross) Rest of the Public Sector 2001 Q1 Total Public Sector Net Debt (I-II-III-IV) Central Government 2000 27,204 41,895 47,128 61,282 55,779 64,559 83,633 90,259 92,880 97,683 85,420 84,515 88,548 82,016 94,374 97,236 Rest of the Public Sector 4,828 7,544 8,665 10,412 9,359 8,240 10,205 10,056 9,939 10,243 8,310 7,886 7,830 7,271 7,695 7,525 II- Central Bank Net Assets 11,004 13,651 15,688 18,556 22,854 23,682 21,534 22,848 25,375 25,549 24,029 23,049 24,733 24,321 27,423 28,739 Net Foreign Assets 7,598 10,068 3,353 417 -2,324 7,149 9,353 12,911 13,660 13,485 12,206 19,109 17,262 17,111 22,460 25,430 Other Asset and Obligations (Net) 3,406 3,582 12,335 18,139 25,178 16,533 12,181 9,937 11,715 12,064 11,823 3,941 7,471 7,210 4,963 3,309 15,802 III- Public Sector Deposits 2,647 4,107 3,797 5,073 4,973 6,203 7,371 8,522 10,931 10,699 11,587 11,537 12,645 14,015 14,183 Central Government 1,038 1,764 1,013 2,304 1,213 2,275 2,415 3,239 5,099 3,445 5,148 5,147 5,053 6,118 6,751 7,497 Rest of the Public Sector 1,609 2,343 2,784 2,769 3,760 3,929 4,956 5,284 5,832 7,254 6,439 6,390 7,591 7,897 7,433 8,306 362 660 1,065 1,613 2,182 2,773 3,428 4,130 4,954 5,818 6,644 7,679 8,929 9,909 11,091 12,217 IV-Unemployment Insurance Fund Net Assets Memo X Net External Debt Stock 24,433 39,372 52,439 71,277 67,461 65,651 84,484 87,404 89,159 94,442 81,524 73,293 79,115 72,176 79,608 79,332 X Net Domestic Debt Stock 47,737 45,323 75,873 83,772 93,125 98,009 106,926 121,494 127,198 138,974 150,041 160,803 172,274 179,319 185,643 193,180 (*) Provisional 90 Table 51: FX and Interest Rate Composition of Consolidated Budget Debt Stock (*) Trillion TL Million Dolar 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 % 2004 2002 2003 2004 CONSOLİDATED BUDGET TOTAL DEBT STOCK 242,707 282,894 316,216 148,490 202,671 235,613 100.0 100.0 Fixed 109,197 138,276 170,167 66,808 99,064 126,792 45.0 48.9 53.8 Floating 133,510 144,617 146,049 81,682 103,606 108,821 55.0 51.1 46.2 TL 101,694 151,790 185,020 62,217 108,745 137,859 41.9 53.7 100.0 58.5 Fixed 37,576 68,614 94,930 22,989 49,156 70,733 15.5 24.3 30.0 Floating 64,118 83,175 90,090 39,228 59,588 67,126 26.4 29.4 28.5 38.5 FX Denominated 121,241 113,227 121,754 74,176 81,118 90,719 50.0 40.0 Fixed 71,156 69,662 75,237 43,534 49,907 56,059 29.3 24.6 23.8 Floating 50,085 43,565 46,518 30,642 31,211 34,660 20.6 15.4 14.7 FX Indexed Fixed Floating TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK 19,772 17,877 9,441 12,097 12,807 7,035 8.1 6.3 3.0 466 0 0 285 0 0 0.2 0.0 0.0 19,307 17,877 9,441 11,812 12,807 7,035 8.0 6.3 3.0 100.0 149,870 194,387 224,483 91,691 139,262 167,262 100.0 100.0 Fixed 54,390 85,032 115,572 33,276 60,919 86,113 36.3 43.7 51.5 Floating 95,480 109,354 108,911 58,415 78,343 81,150 63.7 56.3 48.5 TL 101,694 151,790 185,020 62,217 108,745 137,859 67.9 78.1 82.4 Fixed 37,576 68,614 94,930 22,989 49,156 70,733 25.1 35.3 42.3 Floating 64,118 83,175 90,090 39,228 59,588 67,126 42.8 42.8 40.1 28,404 24,720 30,021 17,377 17,710 22,369 19.0 12.7 13.4 Fixed 16,348 16,418 20,642 10,002 11,762 15,380 10.9 8.4 9.2 Floating 12,055 8,302 9,380 7,375 5,948 6,989 8.0 4.3 4.2 FX Denominated FX Indexed Fixed Floating PUBLIC TL Fixed Floating FX Denominated Fixed Floating FX Indexed Fixed Floating MARKET TL Fixed Floating FX Denominated Fixed Floating FX Indexed Fixed Floating EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 19,772 17,877 9,441 12,097 12,807 7,035 13.2 9.2 4.2 466 0 0 285 0 0 0.3 0.0 0.0 19,307 17,877 9,441 11,812 12,807 7,035 12.9 9.2 4.2 79,107 92,626 83,335 48,398 66,359 62,093 52.8 47.7 37.1 58,560 76,851 72,557 35,828 55,057 54,062 39.1 39.5 3,058 6,703 11,130 1,871 4,802 8,293 2.0 3.4 5.0 55,502 70,147 61,427 33,956 50,255 45,769 37.0 36.1 27.4 8,595 586 8,009 5,082 236 4,846 5,224 1,811 3,413 5,258 359 4,900 3,641 169 3,472 3,893 1,349 2,543 5.7 0.4 5.3 2.6 0.1 2.5 2.3 0.8 1.5 11,952 0 11,952 10,693 0 10,693 5,554 0 5,554 7,312 0 7,312 7,661 0 7,661 4,138 0 4,138 8.0 0.0 8.0 5.5 0.0 5.5 2.5 0.0 2.5 70,763 43,134 34,517 8,616 101,760 74,939 61,911 13,028 141,148 112,463 83,800 28,663 43,293 26,389 21,118 5,272 72,903 53,687 44,354 9,333 105,169 83,797 62,439 21,357 47.2 28.8 23.0 5.7 52.3 38.6 31.8 6.7 62.9 50.1 37.3 12.8 19,809 15,762 4,047 19,638 16,182 3,456 24,797 18,831 5,966 12,119 9,643 2,476 14,069 11,593 2,476 18,476 14,031 4,446 13.2 10.5 2.7 10.1 8.3 1.8 11.0 8.4 2.7 7,820 466 7,355 7,184 0 7,184 3,887 0 3,887 4,785 285 4,500 5,147 0 5,147 2,896 0 2,896 5.2 0.3 4.9 3.7 0.0 3.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 32.3 92,837 88,507 91,733 56,799 63,408 68,350 100.0 100.0 100.0 Fixed 54,808 53,244 54,595 33,532 38,145 40,679 59.0 60.2 59.5 Floating 38,030 35,263 37,138 23,267 25,263 27,671 41.0 39.8 40.5 USD 42.4 37,329 35,841 38,932 22,838 25,677 29,008 40.2 40.5 JPY 7,159 5,222 3,779 4,380 3,741 2,816 7.7 5.9 4.1 Euro 24,326 23,297 23,520 14,883 16,690 17,525 26.2 26.3 25.6 SDR 22,801 23,365 24,764 13,950 16,739 18,452 24.6 26.4 27.0 Other 1,221 782 737 747 560 549 1.3 0.9 0.8 1,634,501 1,395,835 1,342,100 USD/Euro Parity $ FX 1.04220 1.25020 1.36110 USD/SDR Parity 1.35476 1.48058 1.54820 (End period buying rate) (*) Provisional 91 Table 52: Holders of Consolidated Budget of Debt Stock (*) Trillion TL TOTAL DEBT DOMESTIC DEBT Market Public EXTERNAL DEBT Loan Multilateral Agencies - IMF - Other Bilateral Lenders Commercial Banks Bond Issues 2001 2002 2003 2004 177,903 242,707 282,894 316,380 122,157 149,870 194,387 224,483 41,522 80,635 70,763 79,107 101,760 92,626 141,148 83,335 55,746 92,837 88,507 91,897 26,757 9,170 653 8,517 9,172 8,414 28,990 55,037 33,695 22,787 10,908 11,089 10,252 37,801 51,039 32,838 23,355 9,483 9,665 8,537 37,468 52,047 35,177 24,755 10,422 8,769 8,101 39,850 2001 2002 2003 2004 Million USD TOTAL DEBT 123,581 148,490 202,670 235,736 DOMESTIC DEBT Market Public 84,857 91,691 139,262 167,262 28,843 56,014 43,293 48,398 72,903 66,359 105,169 62,093 EXTERNAL DEBT Loan Multilateral Agencies - IMF - Other Bilateral Lenders Commercial Banks Bond Issues 38,724 56,799 63,408 68,473 18,587 6,370 454 5,916 6,372 5,845 20,138 33,672 20,615 13,941 6,674 6,784 6,272 23,127 36,565 23,525 16,732 6,793 6,924 6,116 26,843 38,781 26,211 18,445 7,766 6,534 6,036 29,692 2001 2002 2003 2004 % Share TOTAL DEBT 100 100 100 100 DOMESTIC DEBT Market Public 68.7 61.7 68.7 71.0 23.3 45.3 29.2 32.6 36.0 32.7 44.6 26.3 EXTERNAL DEBT Loan Multilateral Agencies - IMF - Other Bilateral Lenders Commercial Banks Bond Issues 31.3 38.3 31.3 29.0 15.0 5.2 0.4 4.8 5.2 4.7 16.3 22.7 13.9 9.4 4.5 4.6 4.2 15.6 18.0 11.6 8.3 3.4 3.4 3.0 13.2 16.5 11.1 7.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 12.6 2001 2002 2003 2004 % GNP TOTAL DEBT 100.8 88.2 79.3 .. DOMESTIC DEBT Market Public 69.2 54.5 54.5 .. 23.5 45.7 25.7 28.8 28.5 26.0 .. EXTERNAL DEBT Loan Multilateral Agencies - IMF - Other Bilateral Lenders Commercial Banks Bond Issues 31.6 33.8 24.8 .. 15.2 5.2 0.4 4.8 5.2 4.8 16.4 20.0 12.3 8.3 4.0 4.0 3.7 13.7 14.3 9.2 6.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 10.5 .. (*) Provisional 92 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Table 53: Domestic Debt Stock 1990-2004 (*) TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT (Billion TL) SECURITIZED DEBT CASH BONDS BILLS NON CASH BONDS BILLS UNSECURITIZED DEBT BY CENTRAL BANK LAW CENTRAL BANK ADVANCES TOTAL DOMESTIC DEBT / GNP (%) 1990 57,180 27,991 24,270 18,801 5,469 3,721 3,721 0 29,189 26,319 2,870 1991 97,648 51,663 42,155 23,896 18,258 9,508 9,508 0 45,985 32,396 13,589 1992 194,237 128,634 83,335 41,088 42,247 45,300 45,300 0 65,602 34,602 31,000 1993 357,347 254,993 137,389 72,901 64,488 117,604 117,604 0 102,354 31,933 70,421 1994 799,309 543,614 338,266 34,036 304,230 205,348 205,348 0 255,695 133,417 122,278 1995 1,361,007 1,143,067 733,254 220,955 512,299 409,814 290,814 119,000 217,940 25,940 192,000 1996 3,148,985 2,777,992 1,923,829 603,485 1,320,344 854,163 646,669 207,495 370,993 40 370,953 1997 6,283,425 5,945,802 4,642,884 2,267,893 2,374,991 1,302,918 1,302,918 0 337,623 0 337,623 1998 11,612,885 11,612,885 9,511,785 3,815,843 5,695,942 2,101,100 1,956,137 144,964 0 0 0 1999 22,920,145 22,920,145 20,197,511 16,960,758 3,236,754 2,722,634 2,722,634 0 0 0 0 14.4 15.4 17.6 17.9 20.6 17.3 21.0 21.4 21.7 29.3 (*) Provisional 93 2000 2001 2002 2003 (*) 36,420,620 122,157,260 149,869,691 194,386,700 36,420,620 122,157,260 149,869,691 194,386,700 29,422,612 57,879,907 89,270,971 130,483,974 27,373,224 40,226,736 52,251,115 105,841,900 2,049,388 17,653,172 37,019,856 24,642,074 6,998,008 64,277,352 60,598,720 63,902,726 6,989,713 61,901,190 60,598,720 63,131,726 8,295 2,376,162 0 771,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29.0 69.2 54.5 54.5 2004 Aralık (*) 224,482,922 224,482,922 165,579,168 135,306,946 30,272,223 58,903,754 58,903,754 0 0 0 0 .. Table 54: Outstanding External Debt By Borrower (Million Dolar) (*) TOTAL OUTSTANDING DEBT SHORT TERM (1) MEDIUM-LONG TERM SHORT TERM(2) GENERAL GOVERNMENT CBRT 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 52.292 53.534 58.571 70.484 68.683 75.810 79.356 84.216 96.417 103.025 118.802 113.895 130.353 145.805 145.211 148.061 153.160 9.500 9.117 12.660 18.473 11.187 15.500 17.072 17.691 20.774 22.921 28.301 16.403 16.424 23.013 24.005 26.109 29.316 42.792 44.417 45.911 52.011 57.496 60.310 62.284 66.525 75.643 80.104 90.501 97.492 113.929 122.792 121.206 121.952 123.844 9.500 9.117 12.660 18.473 11.187 15.500 17.072 17.691 20.774 22.921 28.301 16.403 16.424 23.013 24.005 26.109 29.316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 54 0 0 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 0 855 557 572 667 828 993 984 889 905 686 653 752 1.655 2.860 2.883 2.902 3.014 CBRT LOANS 160 4 3 1 5 20 42 30 7 6 26 20 15 11 11 1 2 DRESDNER BANK SCHEME 695 553 569 666 823 973 942 859 898 680 627 732 1.640 2.849 2.872 2.901 3.012 DEPOSIT MONEY BANKS 5.373 5.216 7.157 11.127 4.684 6.659 8.419 8.503 11.159 13.172 16.900 7.997 6.344 9.692 10.017 11.119 12.677 OTHER SECTORS 3.272 3.344 4.931 6.679 5.675 7.848 7.669 8.245 8.710 9.063 9.748 7.654 8.425 10.461 11.105 12.088 13.625 MEDIUM-LONG TERM PUBLIC SECTOR GENERAL GOVERNMENT CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 42.792 44.417 45.911 52.011 57.496 60.310 62.284 66.525 75.643 80.104 90.501 97.492 113.929 122.792 121.206 121.952 123.844 33.187 34.918 36.059 39.556 41.692 41.623 40.162 38.845 39.890 42.425 47.919 46.413 63.982 70.293 69.329 69.996 71.376 28.050 29.624 30.980 34.251 36.881 37.563 36.282 34.738 35.688 37.687 42.502 41.276 59.179 65.565 64.593 65.444 66.780 26.041 27.291 28.396 31.331 33.293 33.679 32.303 31.405 32.331 34.580 39.522 38.760 56.830 63.453 62.563 63.527 64.942 LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS 911 1.181 1.627 2.005 2.615 2.711 2.752 2.401 2.569 2.453 2.380 1.936 1.676 1.534 1.472 1.404 1.347 EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS 1.095 1.142 934 883 939 1.149 1.211 921 774 646 594 557 646 549 530 486 466 3 10 22 33 35 24 16 11 14 8 6 23 26 29 28 27 25 OTHER PUBLIC SECTOR(2) 1.005 1.427 1.546 1.564 1.415 1.263 1.077 936 686 875 1.205 1.129 1.045 1.201 1.193 1.264 1.384 STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES 4.132 3.868 3.533 3.740 3.396 2.797 2.803 3.171 3.516 3.864 4.212 4.008 3.758 3.526 3.543 3.289 3.212 286 293 308 272 103 78 157 445 651 743 706 575 196 209 204 204 206 3.846 3.575 3.225 3.469 3.293 2.719 2.645 2.726 2.865 3.121 3.506 3.433 3.562 3.317 3.339 3.085 3.006 17.791 UNIVERSITIES Financial SOEs NonFinancial SOEs 7.479 6.650 6.150 6.618 8.941 11.170 11.389 10.868 12.073 10.312 13.429 23.591 20.340 21.504 20.006 18.756 CBRT Loans 1.224 937 379 336 633 773 669 601 392 396 3.705 13.643 8.068 7.272 6.145 5.024 3.935 Dresdner Bank Scheme 6.255 5.713 5.771 6.282 8.308 10.397 10.720 10.267 11.681 9.916 9.724 9.948 12.272 14.232 13.861 13.732 13.856 34.677 CBRT PRIVATE SECTOR (3) FINANCIAL Banks Non-Bank Financial Enterprises NON-FINANCIAL Total Outstanding Debt/GSMH Short Term Outstanding External Debt/GSMH Middle-Long Term Outstanding External Debt/GSMH 2.125 2.849 3.702 5.838 6.863 7.517 10.733 16.812 23.680 27.367 29.153 27.488 29.608 30.995 31.871 33.200 939 1.168 1.137 1.758 1.657 1.890 3.354 5.535 6.879 7.482 7.581 4.789 4.586 4.972 5.134 5.573 6.047 907 1.100 1.005 1.294 1.062 1.126 2.270 3.757 4.274 4.768 4.550 3.211 3.007 3.113 3.191 3.546 3.877 32 68 132 464 595 764 1.084 1.778 2.605 2.713 3.032 1.578 1.579 1.859 1.943 2.027 2.170 1.186 1.681 2.565 4.079 5.206 5.627 7.379 11.277 16.801 19.885 21.571 22.699 25.022 26.023 26.737 27.627 28.630 34,3 35,2 36,5 38,9 52,6 44,1 43,1 43,6 47,0 55,3 59,0 79,1 71,4 61,0 .. .. .. 6,2 6,0 7,9 10,2 8,6 9,0 9,3 9,2 10,1 12,3 14,1 11,4 9,0 9,6 .. .. .. 28,1 29,2 28,6 28,7 44,1 35,1 33,8 34,4 36,9 43,0 44,9 67,7 62,4 51,4 .. .. .. Source: UT, CBRT (*) Provisional (1) Source: CBRT. (2) T.Development Bank, T.Eximbank (3) Since Oct 01,2001, CBRT is responsible for monitoring private sector debt. 94 Table 55: Outstanding External Debt By Lender (Million Dolar) (*) TOTAL OUTSTANDING DEBT SHORT TERM(2) MEDIUM-LONG TERM SHORT TERM(2) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 52.303 53.545 58.581 70.492 68.692 75.819 79.356 84.216 96.417 103.025 118.802 113.895 130.353 145.805 145.211 148.061 153.160 9.500 9.117 12.660 18.473 11.187 15.500 17.072 17.691 20.774 22.921 28.301 16.403 16.424 23.013 24.005 26.109 29.316 42.803 44.428 45.921 52.019 57.505 60.319 62.284 66.525 75.643 80.104 90.501 97.492 113.929 122.792 121.206 121.952 123.844 29.316 9.500 9.117 12.660 18.473 11.187 15.500 17.072 17.691 20.774 22.921 28.301 16.403 16.424 23.013 24.005 26.109 COMMERCIAL BANK CREDITS 5.469 4.668 6.808 10.054 3.374 5.503 6.493 8.160 9.935 11.540 17.306 7.775 5.187 8.260 8.730 9.531 11.330 PRIVATE LENDER CREDITS 4.031 4.449 5.852 8.419 7.813 9.997 10.579 9.531 10.839 11.381 10.995 8.628 11.237 14.753 15.275 16.578 17.986 MEDIUM-LONG TERM 42.803 44.428 45.921 52.019 57.505 60.319 62.284 66.525 75.643 80.104 90.501 97.492 113.929 122.792 121.206 121.952 123.844 OFFICIAL CREDITORS 19.769 20.568 19.502 18.957 20.178 20.150 18.559 17.078 17.724 16.979 20.172 30.643 40.151 42.926 41.510 40.982 41.110 GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS 9.827 10.306 9.817 9.579 10.417 10.250 9.686 8.994 9.697 9.140 8.705 8.581 9.302 9.457 9.230 8.840 8.608 MULTILATERAL ORGANIZATIONS 9.942 10.262 9.685 9.378 9.761 9.900 8.873 8.084 8.028 7.839 11.467 22.062 30.849 33.469 32.280 32.143 32.502 23.034 23.861 26.419 33.062 37.327 40.169 43.725 49.447 57.919 63.125 70.329 66.849 73.779 79.866 79.696 80.970 82.734 19.814 19.757 19.278 22.047 25.381 27.370 30.644 35.717 43.885 46.388 48.194 45.511 49.932 52.288 52.483 53.072 54.492 0 0 0 0 0 0 14.730 18.384 22.147 24.490 27.362 27.504 28.505 28.768 29.070 29.895 30.830 2.580 PRIVATE CREDITORS LOAN COMMERCIAL BANKS NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.927 4.490 6.040 6.985 5.602 3.371 3.304 3.003 2.719 2.577 NON-MONETARY INSTITUTIONS 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.788 1.877 2.982 3.980 4.280 3.933 4.745 4.637 4.860 4.593 4.860 OFF-SHORE BANKS 0 0 0 0 0 0 468 688 1.010 990 1.203 731 1.099 1.638 1.963 2.266 2.357 PRIVATE INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT BANKS 0 0 OTHER DRESDNER NGTA BOND ISSUE Total Outstanding Debt/GSMH Short Term Outstanding External Debt/GSMH Middle-Long Term Outstanding External Debt/GSMH 6.255 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 17 18 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 5.713 5.771 6.282 8.308 10.397 10.720 10.267 11.681 9.916 9.724 9.948 12.272 14.232 13.861 13.732 13.856 12 11 10 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 3.220 4.104 7.141 11.015 11.946 12.799 13.081 13.730 14.034 16.738 22.135 21.338 23.846 27.578 27.213 27.898 28.242 34,3 35,2 36,5 38,9 52,6 44,1 43,1 43,6 47,0 55,3 59,0 79,1 71,4 61,0 .. .. .. 6,2 6,0 7,9 10,2 8,6 9,0 9,3 9,2 10,1 12,3 14,1 11,4 9,0 9,6 .. .. .. 28,1 29,2 28,6 28,7 44,1 35,1 33,8 34,4 36,9 43,0 44,9 67,7 62,4 51,4 .. .. .. Source: UT, CBTR (*) Provisional (1) Source: CBRT. 95 Table 56: Outstandig Bond Stock (Million Dolar) (*) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 GRAND TOTAL 3.220 4.104 7.141 11.015 11.946 12.799 13.081 13.730 14.034 16.738 22.135 21.338 23.846 27.578 27.213 27.898 28.242 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 2.145 2.869 5.275 9.016 10.035 11.245 11.896 12.657 13.251 15.906 20.903 20.138 23.127 26.843 26.483 27.168 27.509 2.145 2.869 3.660 5.102 4.947 6.311 7.110 8.708 9.458 10.763 12.137 12.047 12.601 13.348 11.815 11.782 12.646 GLOBAL BOND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.258 4.838 5.579 8.206 12.101 13.549 14.281 14.265 SAMURAI BONDS 0 0 1.365 3.664 4.838 4.685 4.536 3.699 3.345 3.277 3.323 1.909 1.719 795 519 507 0 YANKEE BONDS 0 0 250 250 250 250 250 250 449 608 605 603 601 599 599 598 598 MUNICIPALITIES EURO BONDS 5 117 635 648 730 612 471 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SAMURAI BONDS 0 16 505 562 633 612 471 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BULLDOG BONDS 5 63 93 87 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 YANKEE BONDS 0 38 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 376 393 358 414 389 156 187 183 182 185 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 376 393 358 414 389 156 187 183 182 185 0 0 0 0 0 0 406 521 286 423 772 773 549 548 548 548 548 EURO BONDS 0 0 0 0 0 0 104 251 199 423 772 773 549 548 548 548 548 SAMURAI BONDS 0 0 0 0 0 0 302 270 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PRIVATE SECTOR (3) 0 0 0 0 0 0 305 177 104 50 45 39 15 0 0 0 0 2,1 2,7 4,4 6,1 9,2 7,5 7,1 7,1 6,8 9,0 11,0 14,8 13,1 11,5 .. .. .. SOEs EURO BONDS OTHER PUBLIC SECTOR(2) Total External Debt Bond Stock/GSMH Source: UT (*) Provisional (1) T.Development Bank, T.Eximbank (2) Since Oct 01,2001, CBRT is responsible for monitoring private sector debt. 96 Table 57: Exchange Rate Effect and Currency Composition of Outstanding External Debt (Million Dollar) (*) 97 SHORT TERM OUTSTANDING EXTERNAL DEBT 1996-1997 1997-1998 A B C A B 1999-2000 C A 2000-2001 B C A B 2001-2002 A B USD 9.967 9.967 0 10.900 10.900 0 12.412 12.412 0 15.282 15.282 0 19.319 19.319 0 10.424 10.424 DEM 5.416 4.703 -713 5.072 5.446 374 6.375 5.461 -914 4.650 4.265 -385 3.909 3.740 -169 414 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1.381 1.267 -114 3.659 3.501 -158 4.961 EUR/ECU C 1998-1999 C A B 2003-2004 Q3 2002-2003 C A B C A 0 9.954 9.954 0 13.372 13.372 B C 490 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.870 909 5.815 6.975 1.160 8.908 8.778 -130 0 SDR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CHF 235 219 -16 236 252 16 223 190 -33 158 153 -5 131 128 -3 100 120 20 136 152 16 181 179 -2 GBP 228 224 -4 231 234 3 207 200 -7 208 191 -17 255 249 -6 194 215 21 208 231 23 322 327 5 JPY 249 223 -26 338 381 43 512 576 64 541 490 -51 379 326 -53 232 254 22 281 313 32 193 186 -7 FRF 248 217 -31 226 243 17 249 213 -36 227 208 -19 200 191 -9 23 27 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 NLG 223 193 -30 195 209 14 289 248 -41 183 168 -15 191 183 -8 21 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 OTHER (USD) 505 505 0 492 492 0 505 505 0 291 291 0 258 258 0 34 34 0 30 30 0 37 37 0 17.072 16.252 -820 17.691 18.157 466 20.774 19.808 -966 22.921 22.316 -605 28.301 27.896 -405 16.403 17.459 1.056 16.424 17.655 1.231 23.013 22.880 -133 TOTAL MIDDLE-LONG TERM OUTSTANDING EXTERNAL DEBT 1996-1997 A B 1997-1998 C A B 1998-1999 C A B 1999-2000 C A 2000-2001 B C A B 2001-2002 C A B 2002-2003 C A B 2003-2004 Q3 C A B C USD 19.911 19.911 0 28.126 28.126 0 34.231 34.231 0 39.052 39.052 0 45.270 45.270 0 47.108 47.108 0 51.173 51.173 0 53.173 53.173 DEM 20.577 17.869 -2.709 23.607 25.327 1.720 27.549 23.611 -3.938 22.923 21.034 -1.889 19.238 18.399 -839 412 485 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.549 1.380 -169 1.355 1.471 116 1.478 1.262 -216 5.803 5.324 -479 11.173 10.688 -485 29.226 34.578 5.351 34.044 40.840 6.796 39.679 39.098 -581 EUR/ECU 0 SDR 672 632 -40 603 628 25 394 384 -10 899 854 -45 4.186 4.033 -153 14.106 15.228 1.122 22.018 24.062 2.045 24.012 23.824 -188 CHF 1.156 1.075 -81 1.004 1.068 64 982 840 -142 800 778 -22 652 637 -15 586 706 120 583 651 68 703 697 -6 GBP 646 634 -12 591 595 5 614 593 -20 598 548 -50 554 541 -13 515 571 56 525 580 55 332 339 7 JPY 10.980 9.830 -1.150 8.640 9.723 1.083 7.497 8.441 944 7.468 6.764 -703 7.068 6.091 -977 4.944 5.427 484 5.031 5.610 580 4.324 4.167 -158 FRF 1.129 988 -140 979 1.049 70 1.124 962 -162 954 876 -79 814 779 -35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 678 586 -92 624 670 47 674 577 -97 531 487 -44 456 437 -19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.986 4.570 -417 996 1.047 51 1.101 1.017 -84 1.076 1.028 -47 1.090 1.066 -24 596 627 31 557 576 20 569 567 -1 62.284 57.474 -4.810 66.525 69.705 3.180 75.643 71.919 -3.725 80.104 76.745 -3.359 90.501 87.941 -2.560 97.492 104.730 7.238 113.929 123.493 9.563 122.792 121.864 -927 NLG OTHER (USD) TOTAL TOTAL 1996-1997 A B 1997-1998 C A B 1998-1999 C A B 1999-2000 C A B 2000-2001 C A B 2001-2002 C A B 2002-2003 C A B 2003-2004 Q3 C A B C USD 29.878 29.878 0 39.026 39.026 0 46.643 46.643 0 54.334 54.334 0 64.589 64.589 0 57.532 57.532 0 61.127 61.127 0 66.545 66.545 0 DEM 25.993 22.571 -3.422 28.679 30.773 2.094 33.924 29.073 -4.852 27.573 25.300 -2.273 23.147 22.139 -1.008 826 975 149 0 0 0 0 0 0 EUR/ECU 1.550 1.381 -170 1.356 1.472 116 1.480 1.264 -216 7.184 6.591 -593 14.832 14.189 -643 34.187 40.447 6.260 39.859 47.815 7.956 48.587 47.876 -711 SDR 672 632 -40 603 628 25 394 384 -10 899 854 -45 4.186 4.033 -153 14.106 15.228 1.122 22.018 24.062 2.045 24.012 23.824 -188 CHF 1.391 1.294 -97 1.240 1.319 80 1.205 1.030 -175 958 931 -27 783 766 -18 686 826 140 719 803 84 884 876 -8 GBP 874 857 -16 822 829 8 821 794 -27 806 739 -67 809 790 -19 709 786 77 733 811 78 654 666 12 JPY 11.229 10.053 -1.176 8.978 10.104 1.126 8.009 9.018 1.008 8.009 7.255 -754 7.447 6.417 -1.030 5.176 5.682 506 5.312 5.924 612 4.517 4.353 -164 FRF 1.377 1.206 -171 1.205 1.292 87 1.373 1.175 -197 1.181 1.084 -98 1.014 970 -44 23 27 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 901 779 -122 819 879 61 963 824 -138 714 655 -58 647 620 -27 21 25 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.491 5.075 -417 1.488 1.539 51 1.606 1.522 -84 1.367 1.319 -47 1.348 1.324 -24 630 661 31 587 606 20 606 604 -1 79.356 73.726 -5.630 84.216 87.862 3.646 96.417 91.726 -4.691 103.025 99.061 -3.963 118.802 115.837 -2.965 113.895 122.189 8.294 130.353 141.148 10.794 145.805 144.744 -1.060 NLG OTHER (USD) TOTAL A = US Dollar Equivalent of original currency composition by end of the relevant period B = US Dollar Equivalent by end of following period's rates C = (B-A) US Dollar, cross currency rate effect (*) Provisional. Source: UT, CBRT 98 Table 58: Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock (Million USD)(*) 99 BORROWER 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS TOTAL PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION T. DEFENSE INDUSTRY SUPPORT FUND FINANCIAL SOEs TOTAL T.C. ZİRAAT BANK NON-FINANCIAL SOEs ASIL STEEL INDUSTRY & TRADE INC. BOTAŞ -T. PETROLIUM PIPELINE CORP. ÇİTOSAN - T. CEMENT AND SOIL TRADE INC. DIVRIGI HEKIMHAN MINING CORP. EBK -MEAT AND FISH PRODUCTS CORP. EREGLI IRON &STEEL WORKS INC. ETİBANK EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. ISDEMIR - ISKENDERUN IRON & STEEL WORKS PETKIM - PETRO CHAMICAL INDUSTRY PETLAS RUBBER IND. AND TRADE INC. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF PTT-MAIL TELGRAPH TELEPHONE SEKA - T. PAPER PLANTS INC. SİVAS DEÇOKO-SIVAS IRON AND STEEL WORKS SÜMER HOLDİNG INC. TAKSAN BENCH SETS INC. TCDD T. STATE RAILWAYS TDÇİ - T. IRON AND STEEL WORKS TDİ - T. SHIPPING INC. TEAS - T. ELECTRICITY INSTITUTION TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TURKISH TELECOM TEMSAN T. ELECTRICITY AND MECHANICAL IND. TESTAŞ - T. ELECTRONIC IND. THY - TURKISH AIRLINES TİGEM - GEN. DIR. OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES TKI - T. COAL CORP. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TPAO - T. PETROLLIUM COMP. TUDEMSAS - T. RAILWAY MACHINARIES INDUSTRY TUGSAS - T. FERTILIZER IND. TÜMOSAN-T. MOTOR SAN. VE TİCARET A.Ş. TUPRAS - TURKISH PETROLIUM RAFINERIES T. SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY T. SUGAR COMP. TURKISH FEED INDUSTRY INC. DEVELOPMENT AND INVESTMENT BANKS TOTAL T. EXIMBANK T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK SYB -INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT BANK TSKB - T.INDUSTRIAL DEVOLOPMENT BANK PRIVATE NONFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TOTAL ÇUKOBİRLİK ÇUKUROVA COTTON UNION UNIVERSITIES TOTAL ANADOLU UNIVERSITY ÇUKUROVA UNIVERSITY GAZİANTEP UNIVERSITY ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY KARADENİZ TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY SELÇUK UNIVERSITY LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS TOTAL ASAT - ANTALYA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ - ANKARA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION BUSKI - BURSA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION EGO-ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTHORITY OF ANKARA ESHOT-ELECTRICITY, WATER, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTHORITY OF IZMIR GASKI - GAZIANTEP WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION IGDAS-ISTANBUL GAS DISTRIBUTION COMPANY ISKI - ISTANBUL WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION IZGAZ - IZMIT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMPANY IZSU - IZMIR WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF BURSA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF GAZİANTEP GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İSTANBUL GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA GRAND TOTAL 1,095 1,011 0 84 141 141 3,488 3 248 2 0 0 10 1 981 11 17 35 314 7 28 0 8 107 159 7 758 17 0 1 5 333 2 44 224 38 0 19 12 76 17 5 0 1,620 427 593 64 536 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 892 0 0 0 178 0 0 67 136 0 28 0 0 0 0 482 0 0 0 0 7,242 1,142 816 0 326 129 129 3,301 4 174 11 0 0 79 0 1,081 14 15 35 224 0 25 1 5 137 111 5 591 35 0 1 4 364 1 33 171 35 1 6 13 106 13 4 0 1,863 555 720 75 512 1 1 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1,058 0 2 0 224 0 0 207 162 0 45 0 0 0 0 419 0 0 0 0 7,499 910 563 0 346 261 261 3,021 4 202 9 0 0 136 0 1,068 14 32 21 142 0 17 1 2 133 130 2 435 36 0 0 3 322 1 19 23 30 2 34 4 180 10 2 6 1,952 520 855 88 489 0 0 4 2 0 1 0 1 0 925 0 8 0 191 0 0 184 157 0 36 0 0 0 0 349 0 0 0 0 7,072 838 370 100 367 248 248 3,222 3 240 0 0 50 231 0 886 13 32 5 101 0 12 0 0 148 90 1 356 35 0 0 1 496 0 6 189 27 2 32 1 180 6 72 5 2,066 570 860 86 551 0 0 10 1 0 0 9 0 0 1,229 0 13 1 258 0 0 159 190 0 59 0 227 0 0 323 0 0 0 0 7,614 869 281 100 488 89 89 3,126 3 232 0 0 50 326 0 781 12 26 3 65 0 6 0 0 198 50 0 335 44 0 0 0 556 0 0 130 25 1 25 0 202 3 46 5 2,013 556 846 79 532 0 0 27 4 0 0 23 0 0 1,752 0 19 4 373 17 17 134 221 0 74 0 343 1 0 375 90 84 0 0 7,876 1,047 217 95 735 75 75 2,704 2 167 0 0 0 318 0 725 11 22 0 38 0 2 0 0 169 0 0 324 40 0 0 0 502 0 0 2 21 1 31 0 324 0 5 0 1,775 665 587 68 456 0 0 24 3 0 0 20 0 0 1,987 0 25 11 394 17 20 90 215 41 75 0 431 4 4 338 135 171 14 2 7,612 1,211 179 85 948 54 54 2,612 2 123 0 0.1 0 291 0 737 9 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 121 0 0 309 32 6 0 0 564 0 5 0 16 1 40 0 347 0 3 0 1,466 663 408 46 349 0 0 15 2 0 0 13 0 0 2,162 9 72 22 362 11 16 67 211 64 66 0 481 5 9 210 186 337 31 4 7,521 4.8 4.9 4.4 4.2 6.0 4.5 4.0 Total Stock/GNP (%) 100 Treasury Guaranteed External Debt Stock (Million USD) (Continueing) BORROWER EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS TOTAL PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION T. DEFENSE INDUSTRY SUPPORT FUND FINANCIAL SOEs TOTAL T.C. ZİRAAT BANK NON-FINANCIAL SOEs ASIL STEEL INDUSTRY & TRADE INC. BOTAŞ -T. PETROLIUM PIPELINE CORP. DIVRIGI HEKIMHAN MINING CORP. EREGLI IRON &STEEL WORKS INC. EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. ISDEMIR - ISKENDERUN IRON & STEEL WORKS PETKIM - PETRO CHAMICAL INDUSTRY TCDD T. STATE RAILWAYS TEAS - T. ELECTRICITY INSTITUTION TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TURKISH TELECOM THY - TURKISH AIRLINES TKI - T. COAL CORP. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TPAO - T. PETROLLIUM COMP. TUDEMSAS - T. RAILWAY MACHINARIES INDUSTRY TUGSAS - T. FERTILIZER IND. TUPRAS - TURKISH PETROLIUM RAFINERIES T. SUGAR COMP. DEVELOPMENT AND INVESTMENT BANKS TOTAL T. EXIMBANK T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK SYB -INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT BANK TSKB - T.INDUSTRIAL DEVOLOPMENT BANK UNIVERSITIES TOTAL ANADOLU UNIVERSITY ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS TOTAL MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF BURSA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ESKİŞEHİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF GAZİANTEP GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İSTANBUL GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ADAPAZARI GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA MUNICIPALITY OF BAFRA MUNICIPALITY OF BANDIRMA MUNICIPALITY OF DALAMAN MUNICIPALITY OF DİDİM MUNICIPALITY OF FOCA MUNICIPALITY OF İSKENDERUN MUNICIPALITY OF MENEMEN MUNICIPALITY OF MİLAS MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT ASAT - ANTALYA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ - ADANA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ - ANKARA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION BUSKI - BURSA WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION EGO-ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTHORITY OF ANKARA ESHOT-ELECTRICITY, WATER, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTHORITY OF IZMIR GASKI - GAZIANTEP WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION IGDAS-ISTANBUL GAS DISTRIBUTION COMPANY ISKI - ISTANBUL WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION IZGAZ - IZMIT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMPANY IZSU - IZMIR WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ISTANBUL OLIMPIC GAMES PREPERATION & ORGANIZING BOARD MARIC-MARMARIS MUNICIPALITIES UNION CESME AND ALACATI MUNICIPALITIES UNION GRAND TOTAL Total Stock/GNP (%) 101 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 921 107 75 739 38 38 774 39 65 670 24 24 646 0 55 591 7 7 594 0 45 549 0 0 557 0 35 522 0 0 646 0 25 621 0 0 2003 2004 Q3 549 0 15 534 0 0 466 0 10 456 0 0 2,680 1 125 1 230 707 6 4 115 12 294 44 623 18 150 11 0 38 298 2 938 384 350 27 177 8 1 6 2,311 47 466 6 0 6 187 322 302 35 3 0 0 0 11 0 15 0 0 24 26 0 103 38 321 5 21 47 191 89 47 0 0 0 6,896 2,834 1 128 1 208 751 5 2 136 8 283 46 768 17 150 8 0 34 288 1 590 318 163 20 90 3 1 2 2,467 79 328 27 0 4 170 377 169 97 2 23 0 12 29 0 25 4 0 21 49 0 146 63 297 0 111 37 199 109 38 0 50 0 6,691 3,097 0 161 1 159 620 2 0 152 4 253 42 1,113 15 282 4 0 17 270 0 528 373 57 12 85 0 0 0 2,328 127 244 35 0 1 176 364 112 74 1 36 17 33 42 0 17 6 0 14 69 5 131 72 217 0 141 20 158 72 27 44 76 1 6,606 3,462 0 496 1 117 748 0 0 121 0 216 39 1,263 12 173 0 0 20 257 0 486 392 31 5 59 0 0 0 2,233 300 172 63 0 0 186 302 94 38 0 18 29 32 34 0 26 3 0 10 71 9 117 72 174 0 139 9 121 54 16 66 78 1 6,775 3,352 0 607 1 85 704 0 0 85 0 183 35 1,283 10 83 0 0 25 249 0 413 339 17 3 53 0 0 0 1,805 241 130 109 0 0 148 223 79 30 0 8 27 20 25 0 31 2 0 7 76 18 83 66 140 0 34 0 95 38 10 94 68 2 6,126 3,480 0 552 0 65 1,150 0 0 67 0 152 36 1,201 7 0 0 0 26 224 0 579 432 19 47 81 0 0 0 1,546 173 92 91 26 0 123 166 81 36 0 3 22 11 29 4 23 0 0 5 89 31 72 65 130 0 25 0 78 32 7 85 43 4 6,251 3,192 0 330 0 44 1,320 0 0 41 0 131 36 1,028 5 0 0 0 10 188 0 694 412 14 75 194 0 0 0 1,355 152 71 70 77 0 108 131 81 35 0 0 17 9 21 6 15 0 5 2 80 35 61 76 112 0 15 0 55 28 2 67 19 4 5,790 2,794 0 171 0 24 1,231 0 0 33 0 146 34 900 2 0 0 0 5 189 0 876 301 9 73 492 0 0 0 1,178 130 52 54 119 0 95 97 72 26 0 0 13 4 16 6 11 0 10 0 76 52 49 76 90 0 10 0 36 20 0 51 7 5 5,313 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.3 3.4 2.4 .. Table 59: Payments Undertaken Due to Treasury Guarantees (Thousand USD)* BORROWER GUARANTEED EXTERNAL DEBT BANKS T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND T. DEFENSE INDUSTRY & SUPPORT FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES(SOEs) BOTAŞ - T. PETROLEUM PIPELINE CORP. EBK - MEAT AND FISH PRODUCTS CORP. EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. TCDD - TC STATE RAILWAYS TDÇİ - T. IRON AND STEEL WORKS TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TESTAŞ - T. ELECTRONIC IND. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TPAO - T.PETROLEUM CORPORATION TÜGSAŞ - T. FERTILIZER IND. T.SHIPPING INDUSTRY CORP. ANNEXED BUDGET ANADOLU UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF İSTANBUL (PRESIDENCY) LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ADAPAZARI GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY ASAT - ANTALYA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ- ANKARA WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF BAFRA MUNICIPALITY OF BANDIRMA MUNICIPALITY OF BURSA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF DALAMAN MUNICIPALITY OF DIDIM EGO ELECTRICITY,GAS&OMNIBUS AUTH.OF ANKARA ESHOT ELECTRICITY,GAS&OMNIBUS AUTH.OF IZMIR MUNICIPALITY OF FOÇA GASKİ - GAZİANTEP WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF GAZİANTEP GREATER CITY İGDAŞ-İSTANBUL GAS DISTRUBITION COMPANY MUNICIPALITY OF ISKENDERUN İSKİ - İSTANBUL WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTARATION MUNICIPALITY OF İSTANBUL GREATER CITY İSTANBUL OLIMPIC GAMES PREPERATION & ORGANIZING BOARD İZGAZ - İZMİT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMP. MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY İZSU-İZSU-İZMİR WATER AND SEWERAGE AUTHORITY MARİÇ-UNION OF MARMARİS-İÇMELER-ARMUTLU MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY OF MENEMEN MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT GURANTEED DOMESTIC DEBT EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND BOT PRODUCT SALE GUARANTIES LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY GRAND TOTAL 1992-1996 1997 1998 2,203,233 1,031,494 1,182,882 60,409 0 157,175 60,409 0 157,175 282,676 101,606 89,581 254,422 101,606 89,581 0 0 0 28,254 0 0 550,920 40,454 189,069 0 0 0 52,645 0 0 0 0 0 134,180 35,024 31,643 138,389 2,406 2,577 0 0 0 20,442 0 0 183,903 0 154,849 0 0 0 15,681 3,024 0 5,680 0 0 13,120 3,622 3,132 2,933 764 720 10,187 2,858 2,412 1,296,108 885,812 743,925 0 0 4,876 0 682 2,502 243 1,195 1,171 370,314 566,371 184,911 0 0 0 10,575 9,666 9,526 0 0 559 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 203,206 86,114 85,197 9,569 6,532 4,357 0 0 0 10,477 4,266 17,729 64 1,766 3,000 259,302 15,537 16,680 0 0 811 156,145 43,533 45,613 207,372 20,684 26,112 0 0 0 1,256 1,117 12,145 15,311 56,734 107,772 8,733 51,163 200,490 42,712 15,717 14,094 0 0 0 0 0 0 829 4,735 6,380 2,401,029 711,255 62,000 2,401,029 711,255 62,000 2,401,029 711,255 62,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,604,262 1,742,749 1,244,882 Payments Undertaken by Treasury/GNP (%) 0.9 (*) Provisional 102 0.6 1999 939,785 43,732 43,732 69,222 69,222 0 0 307,659 0 0 76,215 31,835 2,693 29,445 0 165,250 2,221 0 0 1,611 645 966 517,561 6,606 38,299 1,090 101,642 0 9,966 2,051 156 0 474 2,765 68,134 0 0 9,499 2,227 13,995 9,461 42,439 34,644 0 31,337 80,685 40,974 12,301 1,372 1,469 5,975 51,400 51,400 51,400 140,415 140,415 140,415 1,131,600 0.6 2000 2001 862,002 1,101,322 0 0 0 0 13,384 13,127 13,384 0 0 13,127 0 0 410,418 497,209 18,571 111,646 0 0 177,132 183,334 49,689 45,714 2,629 265 56,997 55,242 0 0 105,400 101,008 0 0 0 0 0 0 156 0 156 0 0 0 438,044 590,986 16,509 89,652 36,934 8,754 893 0 84,741 53,098 7,039 8,762 9,854 11,961 20,071 11,419 1,209 5,217 0 18,104 5,495 12,655 14,075 11,483 38,772 36,116 0 0 0 0 12,205 111,361 983 304 4,745 9,341 7,676 6,599 25,933 33,686 0 0 0 2,660 15,236 17,627 101,537 98,047 12,157 14,467 10,304 3,655 5,852 20,719 2,002 1,838 3,822 3,461 17,700 0 17,700 0 17,700 0 248,229 206,421 248,229 206,421 248,229 206,421 1,127,931 1,307,743 0.6 0.9 2002 887,912 0 0 12,385 0 12,385 0 397,573 72,288 0 130,895 29,889 116 66,267 0 98,118 0 0 0 0 0 0 477,954 87,947 8,430 0 47,438 10,453 15,433 5,238 6,647 29,932 12,348 9,984 37,072 0 0 10,980 0 0 9,329 28,714 0 24,961 14,052 65,982 15,223 4,640 28,067 1,788 3,296 0 0 0 212,700 212,700 212,700 1,100,612 2003 477,654 0 0 11,652 0 11,652 0 115,352 0 0 26,681 34,335 0 54,336 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 350,650 25,909 9,495 0 25,647 9,755 20,210 2,540 6,339 40,398 4,347 9,404 40,700 0 170 10,481 0 0 9,619 0 0 31,741 11,212 41,122 17,279 4,844 25,758 0 3,680 0 0 0 194,007 194,007 194,007 671,661 2004 294,513 0 0 10,926 0 10,926 0 14,670 0 0 0 14,670 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 268,917 24,762 10,023 0 22,879 2,821 0 0 4,516 28,176 4,676 9,164 37,399 0 652 9,701 0 0 8,657 0 0 20,904 9,734 38,779 18,072 2,544 13,425 0 2,033 0 0 0 148,087 148,087 148,087 442,600 TOTAL 8,980,797 261,316 261,316 604,559 528,215 48,090 28,254 2,523,324 202,505 52,645 594,257 406,979 149,075 262,287 20,442 808,528 2,221 18,705 5,680 21,641 5,218 16,423 5,569,957 256,261 115,119 4,592 1,457,041 38,830 97,191 41,878 24,084 116,610 39,995 56,875 632,710 20,458 822 196,699 8,344 319,600 52,152 376,063 288,812 80,266 113,716 605,969 378,558 110,811 95,193 7,097 34,211 3,243,384 3,243,384 3,243,384 1,149,859 1,149,859 1,149,859 13,374,040 0.6 0.3 .. .. 103 Table 60: Projects That Has Been Guaranteed By the Treasury (Investment Guarantees) BUILD - OPERATE - TRANSFER (BOT) PROJECTS THAT HAS BEEN GUARANTEED BY THE TREASURY No Name of the Project Installed Capacity Guarantee (MW) Issue Date Type of the Guarantee 1 BİRECİK DAM AND HYDRO ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 672 11/18/1995 TETAŞ and Fund's payment obligations 2 ÇAMLICA HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 84 8/7/1996 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons 3 MARMARA EREĞLİSİ NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT PROJECT - ENRON 478 9/6/1996 TETAŞ's, BOTAŞ's and Fund's payment obligaitons 4 MARMARA EREĞLİSİ NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT PROJECT - UNIMAR 478 11/15/1996 TETAŞ's, BOTAŞ's and Fund's payment obligaitons 5 GÖNEN HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 11 3/14/1997 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons 6 ESENYURT NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT PROJECT 180 4/2/1997 TETAŞ's, BOTAŞ's and Fund's payment obligaitons 7 TOHMA-MEDİK HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 12.5 8/11/1997 TEDAŞ's payment obligaitons 8 SUÇATI HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 7 11/6/1997 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons 9 GEBZE DİLOVASI HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 253 9/4/1997 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons 10 FETHİYE HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 16.5 1/12/1998 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY 2,192 İZMİT WATER SUPPLY PROJECT 142 million m3 / year 12/19/1995 Municipalty's payment obligaitons with respect to water sale price, Municipalty's repayment obligation of the credits in case of early termination. 11 BUILD - OPERATE (BO) PROJECTS THAT HAS BEEN GUARANTEED BY THE TREASURY Name of the Project Installed Capacity Guarantee (MW) Issue Date Type of the Guarantee 1 İZMİR NATURAL GAS FIRED POWER PLANT PROJECT (1520 MW) 1,520 10/8/1998 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) 2 GEBZE NATURAL GAS FIRED POWER PLANT PROJECT (1540 MW) 1,540 10/8/1998 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) 3 ADAPAZARI NATURAL GAS FIRED POWER PLANT PROJECT (770 MW) 770 10/8/1998 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) 4 ANKARA NATURAL GAS FIRED POWER PLANT PROJECT (700 MW) 700 11/6/1998 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) 5 İSKENDERUN THERMIC (IMPORTED COAL) POWER PLANT PROJECT (1100 MW) 1,100 1/8/1999 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) TRANSFER OF OPERATING RIGHTS (TOR) THAT HAS BEEN GUARANTEED BY THE TREASURY 1 Name of the Project Installed Capacity Guarantee (MW) Issue Date Type of the Guarantee ÇAYIRHAN THERMIC POWER PLANT PROJECT 620 TETAŞ's payment obligaitons under ESA (*) 7/5/2000 (*) Energy Sales Agreement 104 Table 61: The Stock of Receivables as of the end of 2004 (Billion TL)* PROJECTED UNPAID TREASURY REVENUES FROM THE EXISTING RECEIVABLES RECEIVABLES BORROWER PRINCIPAL GRAND TOTAL NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TURKISH CATASTROPHE INSURANCE POOL BANKS T. GARANTİ BANK T. HALK BANK T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK T. VAKIFLAR BANKASI T.A.O. T.EXIMBANK T.C. ZİRAAT BANK BAYINDIRBANK INC. TSKB - TURKISH INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT BANK YAPI VE KREDİ BANK INC. İLLER BANK EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND SDIF-SAVINGS DEPOSIT INSURANCE FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION REGULATORY BODIES ENERGY MARKET REGULATORY AUTHORITY GENERAL BUDGET TSE - TÜRK STANDARTLAR ENSTİTÜSÜ STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES(SOEs) BOTAŞ - T. PETROLEUM PIPELINE CORP. SAE-STATE AIRPORT ENTERPRISE EBK - MEAT AND FISH PRODUCTS CORP. EREĞLİ IRON & STEEL WORKS CO. EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. MTA-MINERAL RESEARCH AND EXPLORATION TCDD - TC STATE RAILWAYS TDÇİ - T. IRON AND STEEL WORKS TDİ - T. SHIPPING INC. TEDAŞ-T. ELECTRICITY DISTRUBITION INC. TURKISH ELECTRICITY TRADE AND COMMITMENT INC. TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TKİ - T. HARD COAL CORP. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TTK-T.HARD COAL CORP. TÜGSAŞ - T. FERTILIZER IND. T. SUGAR PRODUCTION INC TİGEM - GENERAL DIREC.OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISE NON - PROFIT INSTITUTIONS CARDIYOLOGY FOUNDATION - FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE HOSPITAL INC. SSO-SOCIAL SECURITY ORGANIZATION THE UNION OF CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE & EXCHANGES TÜBİTAK - MARMARA RESEARCH INSTITUTE TÜBİTAK - NATIONAL METROLOGY INSTITUTE TURKISH PATENT INSTITUTE TÜRKEY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION ANNEXED BUDGET BAŞKENT UNIVERSITY SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF İSTANBUL (PRESIDENCY) LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ADAPAZARI GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ANTALYA GREATER CITY ASAT - ANTALYA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKI - ADANA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ - ANKARA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF BAFRA MUNICIPALITY OF BANDIRMA MUNICIPALITY OF BURSA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF DALAMAN MUNICIPALITY OF DENIZLI MUNICIPALITY OF DIDIM DİYARBAKIR WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION EGO ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTH.OF ANKARA ERZURUM WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ESHOT ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTH. OF IZMIR ESKİŞEHİR WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF FETHIYE MUNICIPALITY OF FOÇA GASKİ - GAZİANTEP WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF GAZIANTEP GREATER CITY KAYSERİ WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF KONYA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF MALATYA CITY MARİÇ-UNION OF MARMARİS-İÇMELER-ARMUTLU MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY OF MENEMEN MUNICIPALITY OF MERSİN GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF SAMSUN GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF TARSUS MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT İGDAŞ-İSTANBUL GAS DISTRUBITION COMPANY MUNICIPALITY OF ISKENDERUN İSKİ - İSTANBUL WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTARATION İSTANBUL OLIMPIC GAMES PREPERATION & ORGANIZING BOARD İZGAZ - İZMİT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMP. MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY İZSU-İZSU-İZMİR WATER AND SEWERAGE AUTHORITY MUNICIPALITY OF ŞANLIURFA NON - MONETARY INSTITUTIONS BALIKESİR ORGANIZED INDRUSTRIAL ZONE KÜTAHYA ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE ÇUKUROVA ELECTRICITY ınc. (*) As of 12/31/2004 provisional 105 31.395.006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.223.657 1.675.433 18.483.371 64.853 0 0 0 0 595.865 0 0 0 0 0 0 570.305 25.560 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18.614 1.611 0 17.003 10.519.106 821.806 299.788 30.441 288.080 0 0 0 105.581 157.739 0 0 142.660 0 218.701 0 815.407 0 0 0 0 234 870.510 114.436 0 0 0 564.434 42.892 0 0 0 87.059 0 138.463 0 0 326.396 1.118.621 4.375.858 0 0 37.764 0 0 37.764 34.571.797 52.133 52.133 1.347.084 4.046 251.351 527 152.963 269.756 3.626 2.340 639.275 6.562 16.638 25.522.128 0 25.522.128 0 427 427 48.001 48.001 4.666.803 337.943 12.398 3.519 99.529 1.986.310 517 377.739 0 1.821 726 230 271.499 254 1.045.052 11.744 10.794 504.790 1.938 123.167 7.274 56.381 1.225 8.733 12.788 4.225 32.541 57.481 35.224 22.257 0 2.714.633 44.933 44.187 15.505 439.222 24.904 1.585 75.082 299.461 0 38.116 302.736 2.293 15.181 43.277 89.983 176.867 8.945 0 19.388 22.802 10.111 38.609 47.414 77.647 12.055 35.952 56.238 14.885 1.321 1.728 102.174 484 71.160 7.903 87.817 94.248 4.747 209.771 135.545 16.915 23.442 39.940 1.779 561 37.600 TOTAL OTHER 1.417.707 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 176.163 0 0 0 0 152.766 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.649 12.748 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.042 9.271 9.771 0 1.221.374 0 0 0 1.027.152 14.758 0 0 55.913 0 0 3.867 0 0 0 0 26.284 0 1.711 0 0 0 0 4.297 0 1.936 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52.470 0 32.986 0 1.128 1.128 0 0 67.384.510 52.133 52.133 1.347.084 4.046 251.351 527 152.963 269.756 3.626 2.340 639.275 6.562 16.638 45.745.785 1.675.433 44.005.499 64.853 427 427 48.001 48.001 5.438.831 337.943 12.398 3.519 99.529 2.139.076 517 948.044 25.560 1.821 726 230 271.499 254 1.055.701 24.492 10.794 504.790 1.938 123.167 7.274 56.381 1.225 8.733 12.788 4.225 32.541 95.137 46.106 32.028 17.003 14.455.113 866.739 343.975 45.946 1.754.454 39.662 1.585 75.082 460.955 157.739 38.116 306.603 144.953 15.181 261.978 89.983 1.018.558 8.945 1.711 19.388 22.802 10.345 909.119 166.147 77.647 13.991 35.952 620.672 57.777 1.321 1.728 102.174 87.543 71.160 146.366 87.817 94.248 331.143 1.380.862 4.511.403 49.901 23.442 78.832 2.907 561 75.364 Table 62: Outstanding Overdue Receivables (Billion TL)* BORROWER GRAND TOTAL BANKS İLLER BANK T. HALK BANK T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK T.C. ZİRAAT BANK EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION SDIF-SAVINGS DEPOSIT INSURANCE FUND STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES(SOEs) EBK - MEAT AND FISH PRODUCTS CORP. EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. SÜMER CARPET INC. SÜMER HOLDING INC. T. WOOL AND MOHAIR IND.CORP. TCDD - TC STATE RAILWAYS TDÇİ - T. IRON AND STEEL WORKS TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TESTAŞ - T. ELECTRONIC IND. TİGEM - GENERAL DIREC.OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISE TKİ - T. HARD COAL CORP. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TTK-T.HARD COAL CORP. TÜGSAŞ - T. FERTILIZER IND. T.SHIPPING INDUSTRY CORP. NON - PROFIT INSTITUTIONS CARDIYOLOGY FOUNDATION - FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE HOSPITAL INC. SSO-SOCIAL SECURITY ORGANIZATION THE UNION OF CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE & EXCHANGES TURKISH PATENT INSTITUTE ANNEXED BUDGET ANADOLU UNIVERSITY BAŞKENT UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF İSTANBUL (PRESIDENCY) SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL UNIVERSITY YÜKSEK İHTİSAS HOSPITAL LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ADAPAZARI GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ANTALYA GREATER CITY ASAT - ANTALYA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKI - ADANA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ - ANKARA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF BAFRA MUNICIPALITY OF BANDIRMA MUNICIPALITY OF DALAMAN MUNICIPALITY OF DENIZLI MUNICIPALITY OF DIDIM DİYARBAKIR WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION EGO ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTH.OF ANKARA ESHOT ELECTRICITY, GAS & OMNIBUS AUTH. OF IZMIR ESKİŞEHİR WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF FOÇA GASKİ - GAZİANTEP WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF GAZIANTEP GREATER CITY İGDAŞ-İSTANBUL GAS DISTRUBITION COMPANY MUNICIPALITY OF ISKENDERUN İSKİ - İSTANBUL WATER & SEWERAGE ADMINISTARATION MUNICIPALITY OF ISTANBUL GREATER CITY İSTANBUL OLIMPIC GAMES PREPERATION & ORGANIZING BOARD İZGAZ - İZMİT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMP. MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY İZSU-İZSU-İZMİR WATER AND SEWERAGE AUTHORITY KAYSERİ WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF KONYA GREATER CITY MARİÇ-UNION OF MARMARİS-İÇMELER-ARMUTLU MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY OF MENEMEN MUNICIPALITY OF MERSİN GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF TARSUS MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT NON - MONETARY INSTITUTIONS BALIKESİR ORGANIZED INDRUSTRIAL ZONE BURSA MUSTAFAKEMALPAŞA ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE ÇUKUROVA ELECTRICITY ınc. DIRECTORATE OF İÇEL-TARSUS ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE DIRECTORATE OF YOZGAT ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE 1997 335,059 4,157 0 120 1 4,036 34,695 34,695 0 0 21,845 12,368 0 287 5,926 121 336 0 0 1,814 0 0 0 0 0 993 0 0 0 0 0 3,858 509 72 2,269 0 1,008 270,489 0 27 416 87,063 0 0 0 11,846 0 0 0 0 0 0 44,967 1,127 18 0 1,783 3,481 39,447 0 35,937 31,476 0 20 3,067 3,806 3,574 0 1,896 0 15 0 46 477 15 9 0 0 4 2 1998 865,334 6,315 784 260 1 5,270 55,103 55,103 0 0 28,986 18,506 0 569 8,098 170 0 0 0 0 130 0 116 0 0 1,397 0 0 0 0 0 13,897 1,124 6,165 4,629 0 1,979 760,704 10 452 1,613 349,898 2,840 0 0 25,402 0 0 0 0 0 0 102,904 4,277 2 0 6,509 9,390 67,442 0 73,603 5,982 0 2,467 36,098 51,799 12,966 48 3,361 0 67 0 190 3,384 329 213 4 0 112 0 1999 1,849,550 8,579 1,700 513 0 6,366 79,170 79,170 0 0 286,449 24,150 81,623 899 10,095 214 46,256 1,642 25,501 0 829 0 89,618 3,775 0 1,847 47 0 0 5 42 25,006 2,058 11,913 7,876 2 3,157 1,449,528 435 15,465 3,752 584,157 14,064 0 1 47,773 560 0 84 0 971 0 195,570 7,799 410 0 21,194 19,984 50,191 2,423 131,914 6,097 0 17,799 117,507 166,623 28,030 30 5,666 361 930 0 522 9,216 771 600 7 0 164 0 2000 2,407,197 12,727 4,595 803 0 7,329 103,645 103,645 0 0 51,558 28,096 2,461 259 11,491 245 966 4,907 0 0 0 0 0 0 856 2,277 100 0 0 32 68 25,124 2,946 7,291 10,321 671 3,895 2,212,660 4,914 53,009 6,563 786,569 34,870 425 0 73,113 7,489 56 2,248 14 6,306 265 285,476 9,929 1,620 0 44,430 35,886 199 11,211 151,531 6,185 0 44,370 220,198 344,743 47,405 101 8,059 4,057 3,874 0 944 16,601 1,383 1,051 30 0 273 29 2001 6,256,285 26,347 16,761 1,317 0 8,269 1,634,345 1,615,357 18,988 0 61,816 33,850 0 0 13,528 291 0 12,095 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,052 210 0 0 105 105 47,429 4,175 16,213 13,531 8,538 4,972 4,484,341 117,250 117,705 12,107 1,094,369 63,439 0 0 129,316 49,763 0 25,852 0 35,130 716 463,012 13,037 4,870 0 250,114 75,666 0 34,861 82,051 7,591 0 103,980 527,665 1,104,565 80,881 48 11,887 34,450 11,808 0 1,030 31,178 1,797 1,744 53 0 0 0 1.1 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.5 Memorandum: Grand Total / GNP (%) (*) As of 12/31/2004 provisional 106 2002 2003 2004 6,703,278 17,987,988 31,395,006 8,646 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 8,645 0 0 2,469,012 10,936,592 20,223,657 1,639,677 1,662,132 1,675,433 41,900 52,124 64,853 787,435 9,222,336 18,483,371 241,902 432,555 595,865 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31,924 382,845 570,305 17,761 22,788 25,560 181,651 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,565 26,922 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21,357 21,451 18,614 5,167 0 0 0 2,794 1,611 16,190 18,657 17,003 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,962,361 6,580,443 10,519,106 370,294 652,749 821,806 178,350 247,058 299,788 0 24,676 30,441 0 92,022 288,080 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60,404 105,581 92,171 134,083 157,739 0 0 0 67,493 112,807 142,660 0 122 0 81,017 146,982 218,701 0 0 0 0 0 815,407 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234 504,346 726,533 870,510 0 92,947 114,436 0 0 0 63,505 104,075 138,463 0 0 0 8,757 0 0 0 471 0 181,217 265,802 326,396 0 0 1,118,621 2,193,008 3,448,004 4,375,858 53 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 150,355 366,166 564,434 22,776 34,941 42,892 2 0 0 0 0 0 49,017 70,581 87,059 0 16,947 37,764 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16,947 37,764 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 5.0 .. Table 63: Collections in 1997- 2004 (Billion TL) * BORROWER GRAND TOTAL NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TURKISH CATASTROPHE INSURANCE POOL BANKS İLLER BANK SYB - INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT BANK T. EMLAK BANK T. GARANTİ BANK T. HALK BANK T.EXIMBANK T. DEVOLOPMENT BANK T. VAKIFLAR BANKASI T.A.O. T.C. ZİRAAT BANK TOPRAKBANK INC. TSKB - TURKISH INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT BANK YAPI VE KREDİ BANK INC. EXTRA BUDGETARY FUNDS PUBLIC PARTICIPITATION FUND SDIF-SAVING DEPOSIT INSURANCE FUND PRIVATIZATION ADMINISTRATION DÜZENLEYİCİ KURULUŞLAR ENERGY MARKET REGULATORY AUTHORITY GENERAL BUDGET ELECTRICAL POWER RESOURCES SURVEY AND DEVELOPMENT ADMIN. TSE - TURKISH STANDARTS INSTITUTION STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES(SOEs) ASİL STEEL INDUSTRY AND TRADE INC. BOTAŞ - T. PETROLEUM PIPELINE CORP. SAE-STATE AIRPORT ENTERPRISE EBK - MEAT AND FISH PRODUCTS CORP. EREĞLİ IRON & STEEL WORKS CO. EÜAŞ-ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INC. MTA - MINERAL RESEARCH AND EXPLORATİON SEKA - DIRECTORATE OF KASTOMONU SÜMER CARPET INC. SÜMER HOLDING INC. T. WOOL AND MOHAIR IND.CORP. TCDD - TC STATE RAILWAYS TDÇİ - T. IRON AND STEEL WORKS TDİ - T. SHIPPING INC. TEDAŞ-T. ELECTRICITY DISTRUBITION INC. TEİAŞ-T.ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION INC. TELEKOM - TURKISH TELECOM TESTAŞ - T. ELECTRONIC IND. TURKISH ELECTRICITY TRADE AND COMMITMENT INC. THY - TURKISH AIRLINES TİGEM - GENERAL DIREC.OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISE TKİ - T. HARD COAL CORP. TMO - SOIL PRODUCTS OFFICE TPAO - T.PETROLEUM CORPORATION TTK-T.HARD COAL CORP. TÜGSAŞ - T. FERTILIZER IND. TÜPRAŞ - T. PETROLIUM RAFINERIES T.SHIPPING INDUSTRY CORP. T. SUGAR PRODUCTION INC TZDK - TURKISH AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT INSTITUTION NON - PROFIT INSTITUTIONS CARDIYOLOGY FOUNDATION - FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE HOSPITAL INC. SSO-SOCIAL SECURITY ORGANIZATION THE UNION OF CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE & EXCHANGES TÜBİTAK - MARMARA ARAŞTIRMA ENSTİTÜSÜ TÜBİTAK - NATIONAL METROLOGY INSTITUTE TURK PATENT INSTITUTE TURKEY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION ANNEXED BUDGET ANADOLU UNIVERSITY BAŞKENT UNIVERSITY BİLKENT UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF İSTANBUL (PRESIDENCY) SÜLEYMAN DEMİREL UNIVERSITY YÜKSEK İHTİSAS HOSPITAL LOCAL ADMINISTRATIONS MUNICIPALITY OF ADANA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ADAPAZARI GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ALANYA MUNICIPALITY OF ANKARA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ANTALYA GREATER CITY ASAT - ANTALYA WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ASKI ADANA WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION ASKİ- ANKARA WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF BAFRA MUNICIPALITY OF BANDIRMA MUNICIPALITY OF BATMAN MUNICIPALITY OF BURSA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF DALAMAN MUNICIPALITY OF DENIZLI MUNICIPALITY OF DIDIM DİYARBAKIR WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION EGO ELECTRICITY,GAS&OMNIBUS AUTH.OF ANKARA ERZURUM WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION ESHOT ELECTRICITY,GAS&OMNIBUS AUTH.OF IZMIR ESKİŞEHİR WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF FETHIYE MUNICIPALITY OF FOÇA GASKİ - GAZİANTEP WATER AND SEWEREGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF GAZIANTEP GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ISPARTA İGDAŞ-İSTANBUL GAS DISTRUBITION COMPANY MUNICIPALITY OF ISKENDERUN İSKİ - İSTANBUL WATER & SEWEREGE ADMINISTARATION MUNICIPALITY OF ISTANBUL GREATER CITY İSTANBUL OLIMPIC GAMES PREPERATION & ORGANIZING BOARD İZGAZ - İZMİT GAS DISTRIBUTION COMP. MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİR GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF İZMİT GREATER CITY İZSU-İZSU-İZMİR WATER AND SEWERAGE AUTHORITY KAYSERİ WATER AND SEWERAGE ADMINISTRATION MUNICIPALITY OF KONYA GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF MALATYA CITY MARİÇ-UNION OF MARMARİS-İÇMELER-ARMUTLU MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY OF MENEMEN MUNICIPALITY OF MERSİN GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF SAMSUN GREATER CITY MUNICIPALITY OF ŞANLIURFA MUNICIPALITY OF TARSUS MUNICIPALITY OF YOZGAT PARASAL OLMAYAN KURULUŞLAR BALIKESİR ORGANIZED INDRUSTRIAL ZONE BURSA MUSTAFAKEMALPAŞA ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE ÇUKUROVA ELECTRICITY INC. DIRECTORATE OF İÇEL-TARSUS ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE KOÇ UNIVERSITY KÜTAHYA ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE DIRECTORATE OF YOZGAT ORGANIZED INDUSTRIAL ZONE 1997 104,102 0 0 11,082 668 1,514 1,652 534 1,305 11 51 1,023 2,637 189 1,079 419 4,350 4,350 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 58,090 46 472 169 0 7,681 17,389 21 22 0 0 0 19,663 496 37 0 7,670 0 0 0 70 165 1,147 196 0 1,056 370 1,391 25 0 5 55 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 114 46 11 57 0 0 0 28,977 0 11 103 5,357 61 0 0 3,768 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 774 0 307 94 0 0 133 416 0 91 0 2,828 10,341 0 74 2,262 831 1,277 0 169 0 0 8 20 0 0 10 41 1,430 18 2 1,321 37 45 7 0 1998 265,463 0 0 33,331 908 5,086 2,492 944 1,252 19 9,274 3,632 2,952 463 5,038 1,272 4,350 4,350 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 141,236 75 852 319 0 11,951 30,199 34 36 0 0 0 27,172 1,064 59 0 12,162 0 1,814 0 113 201 1,891 49,054 0 1,811 151 2,267 0 0 12 126 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 39 180 113 0 0 0 79,549 402 171 233 17,019 469 0 0 3,443 0 0 0 281 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 294 0 0 18 804 16 36 0 2,311 43,988 0 42 6,372 2,120 548 122 668 0 0 6 94 0 0 16 32 6,533 21 23 6,135 92 169 73 21 0.4 0.5 Memorandum: Grand Total / GNP (%) (*) As of 12/31/2004 provisional 107 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL 235,153 2,308,894 2,213,131 2,605,493 1,969,675 1,537,687 11,239,598 0 0 870 1,506 5,314 4,667 12,357 0 0 870 1,506 5,314 4,667 12,357 56,823 109,783 159,039 180,697 340,267 140,497 1,031,519 40,863 1,535 2,147 4,496 14,115 8,411 73,143 0 11,116 16,455 32,914 32,912 0 99,998 3,193 5,606 15,598 16,758 0 0 45,300 3,545 1,530 2,332 4,528 3,820 3,156 20,390 16,007 2,141 2,991 4,911 13,655 16,922 59,183 5,310 30 44 7,613 7,472 4,128 24,628 12,074 11,374 43,233 14,974 24,137 426 115,543 19,797 8,019 11,667 23,298 20,306 14,745 102,487 131,695 2,764 3,143 4,556 3,658 2,474 153,879 2,117 886 1,312 2,619 2,261 1,826 11,672 102,902 11,574 17,049 35,994 35,037 83,439 292,112 5,957 2,660 3,804 7,538 6,566 4,971 33,187 0 937,364 3,210 1,030,570 35,902 411,410 2,427,158 0 937,364 0 0 0 0 946,065 30,570 35,902 325,774 0 0 3,210 395,456 0 0 0 1,000,000 0 85,636 1,085,636 0 0 0 81 25 126 232 81 25 0 0 0 126 232 253 765 2,185 0 719 1,151 5,081 6 8 7 0 0 0 30 2,179 719 244 758 0 1,151 5,051 42,502 1,029,079 1,645,317 908,900 1,079,884 589,070 5,494,078 301 329 325 115 153 163 1,506 124,324 222,275 52,024 58,915 1,226 4,346 464,433 1,203 1,735 2,021 2,088 580 671 8,787 461 787 11,531 7,496 113 246 20,634 61,692 71,356 70,753 68,245 20,895 35,371 347,945 590,336 116,121 443,062 303,008 1,863,967 4,300 359,551 156 185 176 178 56 79 886 124 131 51 60 0 0 424 473 0 923 0 0 0 1,397 2,313 2,242 1,868 0 0 0 6,423 51 48 40 0 0 0 139 174,421 210 205 166 0 133,480 355,318 0 262 301 0 0 0 2,123 196 259 261 86 97 269 1,264 38 15 0 0 0 368 421 159,273 420,817 81,499 1,602 110,451 0 793,474 13 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,814 20 9 0 0 0 185 214 291 582 759 179 258 0 2,252 1,241 1,392 199 65 1,893 207 5,363 4,224 4,655 4,625 2,358 2,889 2,995 24,785 475,010 439,501 21,409 9,775 1,352,591 3,338 354,309 0 1,848 0 0 0 0 1,848 10,509 10,543 0 10,515 0 0 34,434 9,367 10,513 1,581 3,524 3,376 1,671 30,553 9,052 9,945 9,749 3,465 4,599 4,882 45,351 967 2,180 0 0 0 0 3,172 21,659 24,259 37,811 0 3,835 34,843 122,406 34 49 18 23 0 0 141 353 407 846 1,019 1,195 2,525 6,527 498 679 687 215 256 729 3,246 330 30 440 1,670 0 0 2,470 18 192 68 126 0 0 404 0 76 0 0 0 0 76 0 76 0 0 0 0 76 118 0 0 0 0 0 118 138 0 0 0 0 0 138 934 4,968 1,894 11,357 16,506 19,578 55,683 47 5,944 2 5 0 6,083 1,750 8,255 5,232 11,255 650 4,842 32,175 90 76 40 107 98 0 581 0 0 0 0 0 3,057 3,057 6 1,867 4,486 4,596 175 23 11,154 1,159 804 670 0 0 0 2,633 123,935 213,296 370,541 444,156 472,596 367,892 2,100,942 4,992 12,352 14,374 13,930 2,241 3,820 52,111 1,863 3,598 3,714 3,633 109 738 13,838 571 479 284 340 292 17 2,319 85,437 71,022 30,878 27,924 41,270 0 278,907 3,332 20,338 17,698 17,516 1,726 1,949 63,089 2,258 19,240 23,064 11,872 0 0 56,434 574 1,187 1,332 150 146 1,497 4,885 17,317 30,090 56,128 46,098 5,086 7,721 169,650 91 156 154 39 16 0 456 1,526 1,414 2,869 3,625 54 534 10,022 0 0 0 0 108 108 9,756 31,311 54,587 67,113 270 467 163,784 62 117 52 26 3 44 303 93 149 121 429 0 24 816 1,107 12 974 0 0 0 2,092 727 1,980 1,915 0 0 0 4,621 56 14,601 34,482 0 0 0 49,959 161 1,324 0 0 0 0 1,485 3,347 3,223 0 0 0 279 7,156 15 5,376 2,110 166 0 5,149 13,204 96 255 0 0 87 447 884 35 48 347 0 0 35 466 99 13,665 16,061 0 31 3,458 33,464 3,239 25,621 4,701 923 1,930 9,779 47,413 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 21,123 14,011 6,713 6,644 52,333 69,290 170,241 600 1,091 501 100 45 189 2,525 189,757 169,624 58,407 15,933 5,704 51,169 495,734 9,695 13,473 13,171 0 0 0 90,667 856 3,468 14,552 14,593 0 0 33,468 165 0 0 0 0 0 281 13,724 19,560 56,181 46,429 7,222 12,262 164,012 6,168 8,827 16,998 14,189 4,167 4,169 57,470 1,523 6,264 27,108 26,311 606 976 64,613 505 1,163 1,623 123 58 3,789 7,383 2,275 6,672 5,653 4,211 945 1,313 21,906 145 430 0 0 0 696 1,271 208 235 115 29 1,395 0 1,982 1 47 6 40 34 0 141 79 165 143 77 0 153 732 134 0 0 0 0 53 187 0 0 0 0 0 1,983 1,983 1,340 2,798 2,265 78 226 1,937 8,670 71 28 19 0 0 0 191 10,353 13,232 29,229 27,207 17,267 770 106,021 289 99 869 736 15 97 2,144 95 139 178 23 21 0 482 26,863 26,802 16,183 9,828 12,507 0 99,638 1,661 241 261 0 0 0 2,292 136 131 161 151 0 0 793 32 36 36 34 66 184 467 155 19 11 0 0 0 206 0.3 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.6 .. .. 108 Table 64: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations (*) (in billion TL) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Revenues (A+B) A. General Budget Revenues (I+II+III) I. Tax Revenues Direct Taxes Indirect Taxes II. Non-Tax Revenues III. Special Revenues and Funds B. Annexed Budget Revenues 56.573 55.067 45.399 23.626 21.773 4.267 5.401 1.506 99.085 96.373 78.643 41.084 37.559 3.927 13.803 2.712 178.070 174.150 141.602 71.370 70.232 7.649 24.899 3.920 357.333 350.845 264.273 128.279 135.994 17.636 68.936 6.488 751.615 742.499 587.760 230.834 356.926 48.365 106.374 9.116 1.409.250 1.387.760 1.084.350 441.270 643.080 86.044 217.366 21.490 2.727.958 2.684.968 2.244.094 881.264 1.362.830 159.990 280.884 42.990 5.815.099 5.726.932 4.745.484 1.928.835 2.816.649 404.679 576.769 88.167 11.811.065 11.635.611 9.228.596 4.302.829 4.925.767 1.221.530 1.185.485 175.454 18.933.065 18.657.677 14.802.280 6.715.638 8.086.642 1.883.461 1.971.936 275.388 33.440.143 33.040.903 26.503.698 10.849.962 15.653.736 3.486.493 3.050.712 399.240 51.542.970 50.890.481 39.735.928 16.080.919 23.655.009 7.418.386 3.736.167 652.489 75.592.324 74.603.699 59.631.868 20.077.498 39.554.370 10.874.532 4.097.299 988.625 100.250.427 98.558.733 84.316.169 27.808.099 56.508.070 10.222.769 4.019.795 1.691.694 Expenditures Primary Expenditures Current Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Interest Payments Domestic Debt External Debt Transfer to SEEs Tax Rebates Social Security Institutions Emekli Sandigi SSK Bag-Kur Unemployment Insurance Fund Fund Payments Other Transfers 68.355 54.389 33.452 26.465 6.987 9.882 25.021 13.966 9.613 4.353 1.267 4.349 1.225 1.225 0 0 0 0 4.214 132.401 108.330 60.536 49.291 11.245 19.038 52.827 24.071 16.940 7.131 8.033 7.521 1.599 1.599 0 0 0 0 11.603 225.398 185.100 114.443 94.076 20.367 32.691 78.264 40.298 30.545 9.753 12.473 12.303 4.000 4.000 0 0 0 0 9.190 490.438 373.968 205.448 169.511 35.937 57.565 227.425 116.470 92.518 23.952 23.280 21.251 11.000 11.000 0 0 0 16.100 39.324 902.454 604.170 347.262 273.062 74.200 77.016 478.176 298.284 233.167 65.117 22.748 31.147 34.480 20.000 14.480 0 0 49.130 42.387 1.724.194 1.148.078 645.945 502.601 143.344 102.989 975.260 576.116 475.520 100.596 50.732 63.620 108.205 41.000 59.205 8.000 0 64.886 111.701 3.961.308 2.463.907 1.286.240 974.148 312.092 255.356 2.419.712 1.497.401 1.329.087 168.314 75.194 104.900 335.300 119.200 146.000 70.100 0 168.480 238.437 8.050.252 5.772.335 2.788.298 2.073.140 715.158 640.134 4.621.820 2.277.917 1.977.967 299.950 303.821 249.499 760.000 300.000 337.000 123.000 0 387.341 643.242 15.614.441 9.437.846 5.187.840 3.871.005 1.316.835 999.320 9.427.281 6.176.595 5.629.514 547.081 189.960 539.253 1.400.000 514.000 451.000 435.000 0 428.563 692.910 28.084.685 17.363.845 9.172.790 6.911.927 2.260.863 1.544.427 17.367.468 10.720.840 9.824.622 896.218 593.242 1.159.991 2.750.000 1.035.000 1.105.000 610.000 0 985.797 1.157.598 46.705.028 26.265.166 13.613.937 9.978.784 3.635.153 2.475.116 30.615.975 20.439.862 18.791.862 1.648.000 1.134.108 1.632.049 3.321.098 1.775.000 400.000 1.050.685 95.413 1.995.073 2.093.785 80.579.065 39.516.839 20.448.022 15.211.894 5.236.128 4.149.580 55.981.463 41.062.226 37.494.301 3.567.925 1.620.231 2.918.206 5.112.000 2.625.000 730.000 1.437.000 320.000 1.480.497 3.788.303 115.682.350 63.811.691 31.107.959 23.089.184 8.018.775 6.891.836 77.682.555 51.870.659 46.807.038 5.063.621 2.195.000 5.665.750 11.205.000 4.822.000 3.180.000 2.943.000 260.000 234.000 6.512.146 140.454.842 81.845.679 38.513.866 30.209.473 8.304.393 7.179.667 94.761.309 58.609.163 52.718.886 5.890.277 1.921.000 8.335.922 15.922.000 6.145.000 4.505.000 4.922.000 350.000 280.000 9.693.224 Primary Balance Budget Balance 2.184 -11.782 -9.245 -33.316 -7.030 -47.328 -16.635 -133.105 147.445 -150.839 261.172 -314.944 264.051 -1.233.350 42.764 -2.235.153 2.373.219 -3.803.376 1.569.220 -9.151.620 7.174.977 -13.264.885 12.026.131 -29.036.095 11.780.633 -40.090.026 18.404.748 -40.204.415 GDP 397.178 634.393 1.103.605 1.997.323 3.887.903 7.854.887 14.978.067 29.393.262 53.518.322 78.282.967 125.596.129 176.483.953 275.032.366 356.680.888 In 2004, analytical budget coding system was introduced by the Ministry of Finance (MoF). The MoF has been working on converting the previous years’ data to the new code system. Therefore, the data on the Tables 54 and 55 are consistent with the old budget classification. The data on 2004 are consistent with the new classification and presented in the Report. (*) Provisional 109 Table 65: 1990- 2003 Consolidated Budget Realizations (*) (in percent of GDP) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Revenues (A+B) A. General Budget Revenues (I+II+III) I. Tax Revenues Direct Taxes Indirect Taxes II. Non-Tax Revenues III. Special Revenues and Funds B. Annexed Budget Revenues 14,2 13,9 11,4 5,9 5,5 1,1 1,4 0,4 15,6 15,2 12,4 6,5 5,9 0,6 2,2 0,4 16,1 15,8 12,8 6,5 6,4 0,7 2,3 0,4 17,9 17,6 13,2 6,4 6,8 0,9 3,5 0,3 19,3 19,1 15,1 5,9 9,2 1,2 2,7 0,2 17,9 17,7 13,8 5,6 8,2 1,1 2,8 0,3 18,2 17,9 15,0 5,9 9,1 1,1 1,9 0,3 19,8 19,5 16,1 6,6 9,6 1,4 2,0 0,3 22,1 21,7 17,2 8,0 9,2 2,3 2,2 0,3 24,2 23,8 18,9 8,6 10,3 2,4 2,5 0,4 26,6 26,3 21,1 8,6 12,5 2,8 2,4 0,3 29,2 28,8 22,5 9,1 13,4 4,2 2,1 0,4 27,5 27,1 21,7 7,3 14,4 4,0 1,5 0,4 28,1 27,6 23,6 7,8 15,8 2,9 1,1 0,5 Expenditures Primary Expenditures Current Personnel Other Current Investment Transfer Interest Payments Domestic Debt External Debt Transfer to SEEs Tax Rebates Social Security Institutions Emekli Sandigi SSK Bag-Kur Unemployment Insurance Fund Fund Payments Other Transfers 17,2 13,7 8,4 6,7 1,8 2,5 6,3 3,5 2,4 1,1 0,3 1,1 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,1 20,9 17,1 9,5 7,8 1,8 3,0 8,3 3,8 2,7 1,1 1,3 1,2 0,3 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,8 20,4 16,8 10,4 8,5 1,8 3,0 7,1 3,7 2,8 0,9 1,1 1,1 0,4 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,8 24,6 18,7 10,3 8,5 1,8 2,9 11,4 5,8 4,6 1,2 1,2 1,1 0,6 0,6 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,8 2,0 23,2 15,5 8,9 7,0 1,9 2,0 12,3 7,7 6,0 1,7 0,6 0,8 0,9 0,5 0,4 0,0 0,0 1,3 1,1 22,0 14,6 8,2 6,4 1,8 1,3 12,4 7,3 6,1 1,3 0,6 0,8 1,4 0,5 0,8 0,1 0,0 0,8 1,4 26,4 16,5 8,6 6,5 2,1 1,7 16,2 10,0 8,9 1,1 0,5 0,7 2,2 0,8 1,0 0,5 0,0 1,1 1,6 27,4 19,6 9,5 7,1 2,4 2,2 15,7 7,7 6,7 1,0 1,0 0,8 2,6 1,0 1,1 0,4 0,0 1,3 2,2 29,2 17,6 9,7 7,2 2,5 1,9 17,6 11,5 10,5 1,0 0,4 1,0 2,6 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,0 0,8 1,3 35,9 22,2 11,7 8,8 2,9 2,0 22,2 13,7 12,6 1,1 0,8 1,5 3,5 1,3 1,4 0,8 0,0 1,3 1,5 37,2 20,9 10,8 7,9 2,9 2,0 24,4 16,3 15,0 1,3 0,9 1,3 2,6 1,4 0,3 0,8 0,1 1,6 1,7 45,7 22,4 11,6 8,6 3,0 2,4 31,7 23,3 21,2 2,0 0,9 1,7 2,9 1,5 0,4 0,8 0,2 0,8 2,1 42,1 23,2 11,3 8,4 2,9 2,5 28,2 18,9 17,0 1,8 0,8 2,1 4,1 1,8 1,2 1,1 0,1 0,1 2,4 39,4 22,9 10,8 8,5 2,3 2,0 26,6 16,4 14,8 1,7 0,5 2,3 4,5 1,7 1,3 1,4 0,1 0,1 2,7 Primary Balance Budget Balance 0,5 -3,0 -1,5 -5,3 -0,6 -4,3 -0,8 -6,7 3,8 -3,9 3,3 -4,0 1,8 -8,2 0,1 -7,6 4,4 -7,1 2,0 -11,7 5,7 -10,6 6,8 -16,5 4,3 -14,6 5,2 -11,3 (*) Provisional 110