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Angola Peace Monitor Published by ACTSA Constitutional Court set up President Jose Eduardo dos Santos on 24 June swore into office the seven judges that make up the newly created Constitutional Court, which is to adjudicate on issues related to the constitution, elections, and issues relating to political parties. The legislation setting up the Constitutional Court was adopted by the country’s parliament, the National Assembly, on 10 June, during which the Assembly elected three judges to sit on the Court. One further judge is chosen by a plenary session of the Supreme Court. The President chooses the other members. There are currently several issues relating to political parties that need to be dealt with by the Court. In an important issue requiring a judgement, one of the historic liberation movements, the FNLA, has an unresolved internal crisis. The conflict arises from the refusal of the founder of the movement, the late Holden Roberto, to cede power to others within the party. After Roberto’s death in August 2007, Ngola Kabangu was elected to replace him. However, that election is not recognised by the wing of the party led by Lucas Ngonda. There cannot be two parties operating under the same name, so the Constitutional Court will have to decide which faction gets to call themselves the FNLA. In another case awaiting a decision, the Social Renewal Party (PRS) is being challenged by its former leader, Antonio Mauchicungo, over his expulsion a dozen years ago. Another pressing issue is the need to confirm that the many political parties operating in Angola are abiding by the law, and that they are entitled to receive the generous state subsidy. In March it was announced that each of the 108 registered political parties was going to be awarded $75,000 to cover the cost of supervising the updating of the electoral Issue no.9, Vol.XIV July 2008 registration. This followed earlier grants of $200,000 and $100,000 for costs during the registration period. To register as a political party it is necessary to collect the signatures of 75,000 citizens over the age of 18. In 2007 the Supreme Court deregistered 19 parties after finding that many of the signatures were fraudulent. It is doubtful that many of the remaining parties would survive a rigorous analysis of their activities by the Constitutional Court. In order to take part in the election, parties will need to collect a minimum of 500 signatures in each province, with a total of not less than 14,000 signatures. This is going to prove to be too difficult for many of the smaller parties that have no organisational capacity, or are regionally based. Those parties that take part in the election will face closure if they fail to get more than 0.5 per cent of the vote. The chief judge of the Constitutional Court is Rui Ferreira, and he is joined by Agostinho Antonio dos Santos, Luzia de Almeida Sebastiao, Maria Imaculada Melo, Miguel Correia, Ifigenia Lima Clemente and Onofre Martins dos Santos MPLA questions election day decision The ruling MPLA has questioned the decision of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos to hold the legislative elections on one day only. On 4 June President dos Santos called the elections for 5 September, and he stated that this should only run over to two days in exceptional circumstances when not everyone gets the opportunity to vote on the first day. Speaking at a rally on 15 June, parliamentarian Norberto dos Santos stated that the MPLA would raise the issue in parliament. June the Luanda Provincial Committee put forward a list of five candidates and five substitute candidates. The substitute candidates are to be used in cases such as the death or resignation of sitting parliamentarians. Electoral Commission to train 250,000 clerks The huge task of training the officials that are going to run September's elections is underway. Where the Central Committee decided the MPLA's list, the UNITA list is to be approved by its leader Isaias Samakuva. He too is expected to include a number of non-UNITA candidates to broaden the party's appeal. Although names have not yet been released, it is expected that this will include a number of "civil society" representatives. On 24 June the National Electoral Commission (CNE) approved the guidelines for the training of the polling station staff. The training programme was launched on 23 June at a ceremony led by the head of the CNE, Caetano de Sousa. In his opening remarks he revealed that the polling stations will be staffed by 256,000 people, all of whom must be trained. The FNLA has also been holding provincial meetings to select candidates on 26 June it held a meeting in Cabinda to chose candidates. On 30 June a similar meeting was held in Zaire province. The final list is to be drawn up at the FNLA national conference in Luanda. The method used will be to train trainers, who then will fan out across the country to impart their knowledge so that all the electoral personnel have sufficient knowledge about the electoral legislation, including an understanding of the role of observers and monitors. The Cabinda Forum for Dialogue has decided not to stand in the elections. The decision was announced on 28 June by its president, Antonio Bento Bembe, who explained that the Forum is still in the process of transforming itself into a political party. Around the country the local electoral commissions are continuing their preparations. On 28 June a ceremony took place in Bie province for the opening of the headquarters of Kuito's municipal election office. Meanwhile, the Social Renewal Party (PRS) on 25 June launched its manifesto in Luanda. Meanwhile, in Kwanza Norte province the provincial electoral commission has been checking its readiness for polling day by checking the status of preparations in ten districts. Rail line reopened The railway service between Luanda and Malanje was reopened on 24 June after a break of 16 years. The 400-kilometre line was destroyed during the civil war. Work is still being carried out on the stations that will deal with passengers once the service is relaunched in August. Parties select candidates Political parties have been selecting their lists of candidates for September's elections. The rehabilitation of the line was carried out by China Railway 20 Bureau over a three-year period, and included branches to Zenza do Itombe and Dondo. The two main contenders, the MPLA and UNITA, have been holding meetings around the country to select candidates. On 27 June the ruling MPLA held a meeting of its Central Committee to draw up its list in the light of suggestions from the provinces. As a result there will be a huge difference in its parliamentarians in September. Only 39 of its current 129 parliamentarians will be standing for re-election, reflecting a desire by the party to bring in new faces. There will be an increase in the number of female candidates, and a number of non-party candidates will also be brought into the parliament. The reconstruction of the railways is part of the huge investment in infrastructure, which last year totalled $7 billion. Investment in industry is expected to total $6.5 billion between 2009 and 2013 according to Angola's industry minister, Joaquim David. Most of this would be from private sources, although the state is expected to contribute $800 million. Government projections suggest that the growth in the sector will directly result in 70,000 new jobs with a further 200,000 jobs created indirectly. Some of the candidates were put forward by the provincial committees of the party. On 24 2 The report points out that the government reached an agreement with the International Fund for Agricultural Development to provide $45 million to 200 000 farmers to strengthen agricultural production and investment. However, the report warns that there are still large obstacles to agricultural development, including a lack of credit and the thorny issue of land titles. OECD report positive about economic growth This year's Africa Economic Outlook, published by the OECD, African Development Bank and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, has given a positive reading to Angola's economic record. However, it states, "higher growth than expected has not brought poverty levels down". The agriculture sector is receiving a lot of interest from outside investors. The report mentions the fact that Angola is on course to become one of the most important African producers of biofuels following the agreement to invest $200 million on a 30,000-hectare sugarcane plantation. According to the authoritative report, the Angolan economy grew by almost 20 per cent last year, an increase over the 18.6 per cent growth achieved the previous year. The growth was largely the result of record high oil prices, but the report points out that the nonoil sector also performed well "notably construction, agriculture, manufacturing and financial services". According to the report, to tackle the high cost of living the government has been focussing its attention on supporting the expansion of trade outlets that is due to result in the opening of 10,000 retail sales outlets, 163 municipal markets, 31 "Nosso Super" supermarkets and 8 distribution centres. This could create 200,000 jobs by 2012. The report found that the annual inflation rate has remained steady over the last two years at around 12 per cent. The analysis predicts that growth will slow to 11.5 per cent this year and 5.1 per cent in 2009. This would be the result from Angola slowing down its growth in oil production to meet OPEC quotas of 1.9 million barrels a day. However, it is expected that the non-oil sector will continue to expand rapidly. The authors of the report doubt that the government will be able to reach its target for public investment due to a lack of capacity. As a result it is expected that the government will have a large surplus of 9.2 per cent of GDP. To deal with these constraints the government has launched a pilot scheme to fund 68 of the country's 167 municipalities to accelerate the delivery of basic services. This growth will be driven by the need for the country to continue its reconstruction. The report expects that new sources of funding for this reconstruction will become available as a result of the country reaching agreement with the Paris Club creditors on its external debt. The OECD report also mentions improvements in the control of government expenditure including the computerisation of expenditure management, and the auditing of the state oil company Sonangol. The oil sector will continue to dominate the economy, and the report states "the challenges ahead are the continued development of the private sector (particularly in non-extractive sectors), poverty reduction and improvement in access to basic services". It continues, "failure to spread the benefits of growth could cause increasing social tensions". The unemployment rate is estimated to have fallen from 39.8 per cent in 2002 to 25.2 per cent in 2006. According to the report 3 million new jobs are to be created in 2007 and 2008 (this does not seem possible as the population of Angola is estimated to be around 13 million). The reports concludes that the impact of growth on poverty has "probably been favourable" with living conditions "probably improved due to the increase in employment (stemming from an expansion of private and public investment), the reintegration of displaced people into the workforce and a renascent agricultural sector". On a more positive note, the report found that with the return of displaced people and the rehabilitation of rural infrastructure, the agricultural sector is gradually recovering with a growth rate of 9.3 per cent during the 20062007 agricultural season (and it is estimated that the current season will show a growth of 12.5 per cent). The government has made this a priority for public investment due to its importance for employment and poverty reduction. 3 the widespread rallies and promotional material of the ruling ZANU-PF and the disruption of the MDC opposition campaign and the "regrettable inaction of the law enforcement agencies, despite the court order authorising such rallies". It also complained of one-sided coverage of one candidate on the part of the state media. Angolan led observers criticise Zimbabwe election The Southern African Development Community (SADC) observer mission to the presidential run-off in Zimbabwe has released its preliminary statement, which concluded, "the elections did not represent the will of the people of Zimbabwe". This conclusion was presented by the head of the observer team, Jose Marcos Barrica, who is the Angolan Minister of Youth and Sports. The observer team also condemned pronouncements by both Presidential candidates to the effect that they would not accept and respect the results of the elections. There had been speculation that the mission would be affected by Angola's close friendship with Zimbabwe, but the statement made clear that the team found that the elections were not held in line with standards set out by SADC. The observers also reported being harassed in the course of their duties. Although the election result recorded a large majority for Mugabe, after Tsvangirai pulled out of the contest, the observers note that some spoiled ballot papers slogans written on them such as "No to dictatorship" an expression of voter dissatisfaction at how the elections were conducted. It also noted the low turn out, which could be interpreted as a massive response to the boycott called by the MDC. The Zimbabwean government had invited SADC to observe the run-off, and the team arrived in Harare on 28 May. The observer mission was made up of 413 members, and was deployed in all the ten provinces. The run-off follows the election in April that failed to select an outright winner after the Zimbabwe Election Commission announced that Morgan Tsvangirai had gained 47.9 per cent of the vote compared with Robert Mugabe's 43.2 per cent. In a sign of the magnitude of the conflict, the observer statement "wishes to express its profound sympathy to those Zimbabwean families who have lost their loved ones and their property". The observer mission found that the period leading up to the run-off election was "characterized by politically motivated violence resulting in loss of life, damage to property, and serious injuries sustained and hindering political activities". The observer mission kept in close contact with the observer missions organised by the African Union (AU) and the Pan-African Parliament. Although the statement does not attribute blame for this violence, it points out that "on numerous occasions victims of politically motivated violence allege that the security forces did very little to stop the violence of arrest the perpetrators of violence". The Pan-African Parliament mission in its statement released on 29 June also found that the elections were neither free nor fair, with an electoral campaign "marred by high levels of intimidation, violence, displacement of people, abductions, and loss of life". In terms of the elections, the observers found that "politically motivated violence led to the internal displacement of persons and impacted negatively on the full participation of citizens in the political process and freedom of association". The mission pointed out that "hate speech, incitement of violence and war rhetoric instilled fear and trepidation amongst voters. Statements made by esteemed leaders in Zimbabwe make it difficult to dismiss claims of state-sponsored violence and it is highly regrettable". The observers found a stark contrast between The Angola Peace Monitor is produced every month by ACTSA – Action for Southern Africa. ACTSA, 231 Vauxhall Bridge Road, London, SW1V 1EH tel +44 20 3263 2001, fax +44 207 931 9398 4 5