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Chapter 8: Valuation of Known Cash Flows: Bonds Objectives Value contracts with a stream of cash flows Change of bond prices & Yields across time Copyright © Prentice Hall Inc. 2000. Author: Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. 1 Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Using Present Value Formulas to Value Known Cash Flows The Basic Building Blocks: Pure Discount Bonds Coupon Bonds, Current Yield, and Yieldto-Maturity Reading Bond Listings Why Yields for the same Maturity may differ The Behavior of Bond Prices Over Time 2 Valuation of fixed income security: single risk-free interest rate Write the PV of the fixed income security as the sum of terms j 1 PV pmt j * 1 i j 1 n 1 2 1 1 1 pmt1 * pmt2 * ... pmtn 1 * 1 i 1 i 1 i n 1 1 pmtn * 1 i 3 n US Treasury Yiled Curve, Jan 97 7.50 Annualized Yield (%) 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Years to Maturity 4 Pure Discount Bonds,Zero Coupon Bonds Bonds that promise a single payment of cash at some date in the future, called the maturity date 5 Pure Discount Bonds The pure discount bond is an example of the present value of a lump sum equation we analyzed in Chapter 4 The yield-to-maturity on a pure discount bond is given by the relationship: F P1 i n 1 n F i 1 P 6 Pure Discount Bonds 1 n 1 2 F 10000 i 1 1 5.41% P 9000 N I PV PMT FV 2 ? 5.41% 9,000 0 -10,000 7 Prices of Pure Discount Bonds and Yields Maturity 1 year Price per $1 Yield of Face Value (per year) 0.95 5.26% 2 year 0.88 6.60% 3 year 0.80 7.72 8 Valuation of a fixed income security A security with an annual payment of $100 for 3 years. V $100 0.95 $100 0.88 $100 0.80 $263 V $100/1.0526 $100/(1.06 60) 2 $100/(1.07 72) $263 3 9 Coupon Bond Obligates the issuer to make periodic payments of interest (coupon payments) to the bondholder for the life of the bond and then to pay the face value at maturity 10 A 10 years coupon bond with an annual coupon of $56, FV=$1000, interest rate=5.6% |__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__| $56 56 ……………………………….. $56 $1000 11 Valuation of the coupon bond PV of the face value $1000/(1.0 56)10 $579.91 PV of the Annuity ($56)(1 - 1/(1.056) )/.56 10 $420.09 Total bond Value $579.91 420.09 $1000 12 Valuation of the coupon bond A year has gone by, the bond has 9 years to maturity, the interest rate had risen to 7.6% PV of the FV $1000/1.076 $517.25 9 Annuity PV ($56)(1 - 1/1.076 )/.076 9 $355.71 Total bond value $517.25 355.71 $872.96 13 Discount Bond Our Bond is selling for less than its $1000 face value. Why? Compared to the 7.6% market interest rate, it pays only 5.6%, so investors are only willing to buy it less than the $1000 promised repayment. 14 Discount Bond A bond that sells for less than face value 15 Previous Example The price of $873 is $127 less than the face value, so the investor would have a $127 additional gain at maturity. In fact the $56 coupon is $20 below the coupon on a newly issued par value bond, so the investor gives up $20 per year for nine years. At 7.6%, this annuity is worth: ($20)(1 -1/1.076 )/.076 $127.04 9 16 What if interest rates had dropped by 2% instead of rising by 2%? PV of the FV $1000/1.03 6 $727.38 9 Annuity PV ($56)(1 - 1/1.036 )/.036 9 $424.08 Total bond value $727.38 424.08 $1151.46 $151.46 PV of $20 per year for 9 years at 3.6% 17 Yield to Maturity The Discount rate that makes the present value of the bond’s stream of promised cash payments equal to its price. 18 Coupon Rate, Current Yield, Yield to Maturity Coupon Coupon Rate Face Value Coupon Current Yield Pr ice 1 1 Pr ice Coupon( 2 1 ytm (1 ytm) 1 FV ) n n (1 ytm) (1 ytm) 19 Bonds Trading at Par Bond Pricing Principle #1: (Par Bonds) If a bond’s price equals its face value, then its yield-to-maturity = current yield = coupon rate. 20 n n pmt 1 1 P 1 F & PF i 1 i 1 i 1 n pmt 1 n pmt P 1 1 P F 1 i 1 i i i pmt pmt i P F 21 Bond Pricing Principle 2: Premium Bonds Yield to Maturity < Current Yield <Coupon Rate pmt pmt P F ytm P F 22 Bond Pricing Principle 3: Discount Bonds Yield to Maturity > Current Yield >Coupon Rate pmt pmt PF ytm F P 23 Yield Relationships 0.2 0.18 0.16 coupon_y current_y y_t_m 0.14 Yield 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 Price 24 Yield Relationships 0.13 Yield coupon_y current_y y_t_m 0.11 0.09 0.07 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 Price 25 Why Yields for the Same Maturity May Differ, The Effect of the Coupon Rate 1. 2. Two different two-year coupon bonds: Coupon rate: 5% Coupon rate: 10% Maturity Price per $1 Yield 1 year $0.961538 4% 2 year $0.889996 6% 26 The Effect of the Coupon Rate For the 5% coupon bond: Price 0.961538 $50 0.889996 $1,050 $982.57 For the 10% coupon bond: Price 0.961538 $100 0.889996 $1,100 $1,075.15 27 The Effect of the Coupon Rate For the 5% coupon bond: $982.57 50 /(1 ytm) 1,050 /(1 ytm) ytm 5.95% For the 10% coupon bond: $1075.15 100 /(1 ytm) 1,100 /(1 ytm) 2 ytm 5.9064% 28 2 The Effect of the Coupon Rate When the yield curve is not flat, bonds of the same maturity with different coupon rates have different yields to maturity. 29 The Effect of Default Risk and Taxes A bond promising to pay $1,000 a year from now. The one-year U.S. Treasury rate is 6% per year. If the bond is default free, its price =$1,000/1.06=$943.40 If subject to some default risk, its price will be less than $943.40 30 Other Effects on Bond Yields Callability.Gives the issuer of the bond the right to redeem it before the final maturity date. Convertibility. Gives the holder of a bond issued by a corporation the right to convert the bond into a prespecified number of shares of common stock. 31 Two Yield Curves (Pure Discount) 9.00% 8.00% Yield to Maturiry 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0 5 10 Years to Maturity 15 20 32 20-Year Bond Value Over Time 1060 1040 1000 980 Value 1020 960 940 920 20 15 10 Time to Maturity 5 0 35