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Table S1. Climate models used to simulate ensemble climate scenarios. Climate Models ACCESS1.0 BCC-CSM1-1 BNU-ESM CANESM2 CCSM4 CESM1-CAM5 CMCC-CM CNRM-CM5 CSIRO-MK360 EC-EARTH FGOALS-G2 FIO-ESM GFDL-CM3 GFDL-ESM2G GISS-E2-H GISS-E2-R HADGEM2-ES INM-CM4 IPSL-CM5A-MR MIROC5 MIROC-ESM MIROC-ESM-CHEM MPI-ESM-LR MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3 NORESM1-M Affiliation Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization /Bureau of Meteorology (CSIRO-BOM) Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis NCAR Climate Community System Model NCAR Community Earth System Model Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti Climatici Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques / Centre Europeen de Recherche et Formation Avancees en Calcul Scientifique (CNRM/CERFACS) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization/ Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (CSIROQCCCE) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMRWF ) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Met Office Hadley Centre, Institute for Numerical Mathematics Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Meteorological Research Institute Norwegian Climate Centre (NCC)