Download Past Attempts to Resolve the Issue

GeMUN 2015
SECURITY COUNCIL
Topic 1
THE QUESTION OF UKRAINE
REPORT RESEARCH
by Efe Birkan
INDEX:
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
Definition of Key Terms
Introduction
Focused Overview the Issue
Involved Countries and Organizations
Timeline of Important Events
Past Attempts to Resolve the Issue
Useful Links
I. Definitions of Key Terms
Annexation: The dictionary definition is as follows “to take possession of an area of land or a
country, usually by force or without permission.” In practical application, Russian Federation
annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March.
Protest: Showing an organized public expression or declaration of objection, disapproval, or
dissent.
Instability: The quality or state of being unstable, in a way that is worrying, or the tendency
to behave in an unpredictable, changeable, or erratic manner.
II. INTRODUCTION
Ukraine is facing several difficulties in two main scopes: economics and politics. Ukraine’s
economic crisis has started in 1998 due to the devastating effects of Asian and Russian
financial crises. Although the economic growth was 0.2 percent in the first half of the year,
the GDP decreased by 1.9 percent in the last half of the year and then by 0.4 in 1999.
Moreover, the economic turmoil transmitted Ukraine to political instability. Evasive
economic policy, distaste for reform and endemic corruption have brought the country to its
knees.
Economic turmoil had been the root cause of the political instability. However, this turmoil
became critical with the nations’ deadliest protests since the post-Soviet area. These
vehement protests started primarily because citizens were displeased with the administration.
A majority of the said population was displeased when the government decided not to
continue the plans and develop ties with the European Union. In addition, Ukraine has
suffered from a lack of solid leadership for the past thirty years, thus the decision making
mechanisms in the country failed to live up to their purpose of existence. Hence, Ukraine was
in need for a unifier leader who makes constructive and forward-looking decisions. This issue
became a global matter after the Crimean peninsula conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Upon the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, Russia did not hesitate to deploy armed forces
along its Ukrainian Border. These actions led to severe unrest among separatists and the Kyiv
government.
III. Focused Overview the Issue
1) 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 1998 Ruble Crisis
1997 Asian Financial Crisis also known as the "Asian Contagion" was economic meltdown
due to series of currency devaluations and a precipitous rise in private debt. This economic
crisis spread through many Asian markets beginning in the summer of 1997. The currency
markets first failed in Thailand as the result of the government's decision to no longer peg the
local currency to the U.S. dollar. Moreover, it has affected many countries’ economies and
currency markets such as Ukraine.
1998 Ruble Crisis also known as the “1998 Russian Financial Crisis” had occurred because of
3 main reasons: Declining productivity, an artificially high fixed exchange rate between the
ruble and foreign currencies to avoid public turmoil, and a chronic fiscal deficit in Russia. On
August 13, 1998, the Russian stock, bond, and currency markets collapsed as a result of
investors’ fears that the Russian government would devalue the ruble, default on domestic
debt, or both. Annual yields on ruble-denominated bonds rise to more than 200%.
Furthermore, stocks have lost more than 75% of their value since the beginning of 1998. As
between one third and one half of Ukraine’s trade was with the Russian Federation, Ukraine
was one of the most affected countries. Additionally, Russia and Ukraine had signed an
agreement on economic cooperation in February 1998 which was 6 months before the Ruble
crisis. This agreement became inefficient after the crisis.
2) Orange Revolution
At the end of 2004, Ukrainians rose up against the discredited regime of President Leonid
Kuchma. In the disputed presidential election in 2004, there were two leading candidates:
Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. Viktor Yanukovych won the election. However,
after the election, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians poured into the streets of Ukraine’s
capital Kiev to repugnate the election which was claimed to be marred by massive corruption,
voter intimidation and direct electoral fraud. As Yushchenko's campaign color was orange,
everyone from shopkeepers to taxi drivers to bank presidents adopted Yushchenko's
campaign color and Kyiv turned orange. Series of protests occurred in Ukraine from late
November 2004 to January 2005.
After 17 days of loud but orderly protests, the newly emboldened Supreme Court ordered a
rerun of the presidential election. Afterwards, Yushchenko celebrated his victory in that poll.
Hence, the "power of the people" had triumphed against corrupted government.
3) Present Crisis and Crimea Conflict
The 2008 financial crisis was a major blow for most economies around the world but the
Ukraine suffered more than its neighbors. Two years after the crisis erupted, Yanukovych was
yet again elected but this time there was no fraud involved with the electoral process in
power, Yankovych engaged in widespread corruption as the world saw how he increased his
personal wealth. His lack of leadership prompted the widespread riots in the nation and
eventually Ukraine’s attempt at a sustainable economic partnership with the EU displeased
Russia.
In 2013, nine years after the Orange Revolution, Hundreds of thousands of protesters took to
the streets of Kiev, calling for the resignation of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and
his government.
An estimated 350,000 people from all over Ukraine had come to Kiev for a peaceful
opposition rally calling on President Yanukovych and his government to stand down. On
February 20, Kiev had seen its worst days of violence since at least 88 people were killed in
48 hours. On February 22, Yanukovych fled the country after protest leaders and politicians
agree to form a new government and hold elections. After the elections, Petro Poroshenko is
sworn in as Ukraine's president. The elections were immediately followed by a series of
changes in quick succession in Ukraine's sociopolitical system, including the formation of a
new interim government and enhancement of the previous constitution.
Crimea Conflict has started with Russia invading and annexing the Crimean peninsula on
February 23, 2014 since the Russian Federation feared that the demographic conflict in the
area would harm the Russian citizen in Crimea. Thereafter, a referendum was held in the
region which was supervised by the Autonomous Crimean Government. The referendum
resulted in the decision to join the Russian Federation. Although the Crimean crisis has
ended, the instability in the region has not been affected. The eastern portions of Ukraine
continue to be a region of conflict, where the population is being polarized between the east
and the west. The conflict became a global issue after USA became an ally of Ukraine.
IV. Involved Countries and Organizations
Ukraine
As it can be inferred from the title of the issue, Ukraine is the central party in this conflict.
Much of the issues that are to be discussed come from Ukraine’s policy plans and the
repercussions for those said plans. Actually, these difficulties began as soon as Ukraine was
separated from the Soviet Union in 1991. In 2004, after the Orange Revolution, Viktor
Yushchenko became the president. However, tension his questionable election alongside the
2008 crisis further emphasized demographic problems within the country. Moreover, in 2010
presidential election, Yushchenko won the election but engaged in significant corruption and
he was estimated to have embezzled around 2-10 billion dollars. The population responded in
protests as a result of their frustration in what became one of the bloodiest conflicts to take
place in the nation. In these days, Ukraine is still suffering from corruption, unfair and
insecure election system and external pressure.
Russian Federation
Russian Federation has involved in Ukraine’s issues since 1991, the dissolution of the Soviet
Union. The two countries partly due to their proximity but also due to their difference in
foreign policy entered in a conflict, which had far reaching consequences for the rest of the
globe.
Russia became uncomfortable with Ukraine when Ukraine started to make trade relations
with the EU beyond its permission. Following these developments, Russia started to voice
concern that there was hostility toward the Russian population in Crimea and they acted on
this matter. Russia swiftly took over Crimea and after a referendum took place both areas
decided to join the Russian Federation with overwhelming majority.
United States of America
During Russia’s conflict with the Ukraine, United States of America became a valuable ally
for the latter. It has been argued that USA is helping Ukraine to hold down Russia. There is
certainly some validity to this assertion since the US has indeed made moves to keep Russia
from expanding further into the Caucasus.
Furthermore, United States of America aimed to protect the valuable gas lines reaching inside
the Ukraine. This prevented Russia from controlling gas outlets and becoming a monopoly in
the gas industry.
European Union (EU)
The political relationship between the EU and the Ukraine is regulated via the European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP). This policy specifically targets countries that border the EU. In
the past years, Ukraine and the EU started to make trade agreements which have displeased
the Russian Federation. These financial agreements would have aided the Ukrainians greatly
but Yanukovych put off the signing and this led to the infamous riots. Upon his ousting the
new Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk signed the trade agreement.
V. Timeline of Important Events
Date
Event
1997
Asian Financial Crisis started in Thailand
August 1998
Ruble Crisis (Economy collapses)
1999
Yushchenko was appointed as Prime Minister
2001
Yushchenko was ousted
November 2004
Orange Revolution started
2008
Global Financial Crisis erupted
2010
Yushchenko became the President of Ukraine
November 2013
Euromaidan protests started
22 February 2014
Yanukovych fled the country
16 March 2014
Crimean referendum took place
21 March 2014
Crimea officially joined the Russian Federation
VI. Past Attempts to Resolve the Issue
The first attempt by the UN Security Council was on 15 March, which was a resolution
urging member states not to recognize the results of the referendum in Crimea; it was vetoed
by Russia.
S/2014/136 is a letter dated 28 February 2014 from the Permanent Representative of Ukraine
to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council mainly about the
situation in the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea, Ukraine, which threatens the territorial
integrity of Ukraine.
S/2014/264 is a letter from Russia to the President of the Security Council requesting urgent
consultations on the situation in Ukraine on 13 April 2014.
In the military aspect of the situation, Russia has overwhelming military advantage and has
placed troops in and along Ukrainian borders. Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine have called
on civilians to stop the bloodshed but it has not been very effective. The Ukrainian President
has called for a ceasefire, however the separatists refuse to disarm unless the Ukrainian army
leaves the eastern regions of Ukraine.
VII.
Works Cited

"Ukraine in Crisis." Council on Foreign Relations. Ed. Robert McMahon.
Council on Foreign Relations, 5 May 2014. Web. 20 December 2014.

Nalbandov, Robert. "Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and
Belarus." Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus.
Strategic Studies Institute, 26 June 2014. Web. 21 December 2014.

Taylor, Adam. "Why Ukraine Is So Important." Business Insider. Business
Insider, Inc, 28 Jan. 2014. Web. 21 December 2014.

Rumer, Eugene. "What Are the Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis?"
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Carnegie, 27 Mar. 2014. Web.
21 December 2014.

"Why Is Ukraine's Economy in Such a Mess?" The Economist. The
Economist Newspaper, 05 Mar. 2014. Web. 22 Dec. 2014.

Satell, Greg. "5 Things You Should Know About Crisis In Ukraine." Forbes.
Forbes Magazine, 2 Jan. 2014. Web. 22 Dec. 2014.
VIII.
Useful Links

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26270866

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/03/ukraine-and-russia

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21606290-russia-has-effect-alreadyinvaded-eastern-ukraine-question-how-west-will

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/mediareleases/2014/europe/eastern-ukraine-a-dangerous-winter.aspx

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/06/russia-eu-economicsanctions-ukraine

http://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/1998/529814.shtml

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25210230

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-proeu-protestspolice-forced-to-flee-as-demonstrators-take-over-central-kiev-8975954.html