Download 16 - TILZ

Climate change and Environmental
Degradation Risk and Adaptation
assessment
Step 4
Risk Assessment
Identifying the most urgent hazards &
vulnerabilities to our programmes
Prioritise hazards
PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and
4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood
(Multiply figures D and E)
A
Location/
Sector
B
Projects
C
CC and/or ED impacts
D
E
F
Sig
Lik
Rsk
1.
Livelihoods
Microcredit
enterprises
Erratic rainfall could mean
enterprises fail.
4
3
12
2
2
4
Rapid run-off is reducing soil
quality.
3
4
12
Changes in rainfall mean tree
pests breed faster; trees are
dying. Likely to get worse.
4
4
16
3
2
6
4
4
16
2
1
2
Predicted landslides mean
communities may need to
relocate.
. . . a risk
based
approach to
prioritise
actions
2.
Agriculture
3. All
sectors
4. New
sector
Tree
nurseries
Alley
cropping
Trees may be susceptible to
tree pests, preventing them from
protecting crops
All projects
The risk of flooding could lead to
beneficiaries’ homes being
destroyed. This may affect their
involvement in the project.
New project
Potential impacts associated
with this project
G
Adaptation
option
Review project portfolio
PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and
4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood
(Multiply figures D and E)
Write all
sectors and
project types
you undertake
in columns A
&B
A
Sector(s)
B
Projects
1.
Livelihoods
Microcredit
enterprises
2.
Agriculture
Tree
nurseries
Alley
cropping
3. All
sectors
All projects
4. New
sector
New project
C
CC and/or ED
impacts
D
E
F
Sig
Lik
Rsk
G
Adaptation
option
Identify Hazards
Refer to Impact & Options Table
Likely impacts of climate change
and environmental degradation
Land
Land degradation
 Desertification eg due to overgrazing,
overintensive farming, extensive logging.
 Soil erosion eg caused by overintensive
farming and grazing.
 Land degradation due to growth or
movement of populations.
 Deforestation eg due to logging, land
clearance – including through burning forest
and shrubs.
 Land degradation can result in choking
water run-off channels and flooding.
 Loss of biodiversity eg due to overintensive
farming or changes in climate resulting in
changes in breeding or migratory routes for
flora and fauna.
Adaptation option
Maximise biodiversity, soil fertility & land
use
 Floating gardens.
 Crop rotation to maintain soil quality, minimise
erosion (reducing the risk of desertification) and
plant less water-dependant crops in drier years
(rotate legumes and other crops).
 Community forest management and
reforestation.
Identify Possible Impacts
PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and
4.1) Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply
figures D and E)
Enter
identified
hazards into
risk
assessment
table
A
Sector(s)
B
Projects
C
CC and/or ED impacts
1.
Livelihoods
Microcredit
enterprises
Erratic rainfall could mean
enterprises fail.
Predicted landslides mean
communities may need to
relocate.
2.
Agriculture
Tree
nurseries
Rapid run-off is reducing soil
quality.
Changes in rainfall mean tree
pests breed faster; trees are
dying. Likely to get worse.
Alley
cropping
Trees may be susceptible to
tree pests, preventing them
from protecting crops
3. All
sectors
All projects
The risk of flooding could lead
to beneficiaries’ homes being
destroyed. This may affect their
involvement in the project.
4. New
sector
New project
Potential impacts associated
with this project
D E F G
Adaptation
option
Assess risks
PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1)
Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D
and E)
A
Sector(s)
B
Projects
C
CC and/or ED impacts
D
E
F
Sig
Lik
Rsk
1.
Livelihoods
Microcredit
enterprises
Erratic rainfall could mean
enterprises fail.
4
3
12
2
2
4
3
4
12
Changes in rainfall mean tree
pests breed faster; trees are
dying. Likely to get worse.
4
4
16
Alley
cropping
Trees may be susceptible to tree
pests, preventing them from
protecting crops
3
2
6
3. All
sectors
All projects
The risk of flooding could lead to
beneficiaries’ homes being
destroyed. This may affect their
involvement in the project.
4
4
16
4. New
sector
New project
2
1
2
Predicted landslides mean
communities may need to
relocate.
Discuss &
agree
significance &
likelihood.
Calculate risk.
2.
Agriculture
Tree
nurseries
Rapid run-off is reducing soil
quality.
Potential impacts associated with
this project
G
Adaptation
option
Prioritise hazards
PART 2: Project risk assessment (Incorporate analysis from Exercises 2.1, 3.2 and 4.1)
Sig = Significance of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Lik= Likelihood of impact: (4= high; 1= low) Rsk= Risk = Significance X Likelihood (Multiply figures D
and E)
A
Sector(s)
B
Projects
C
CC and/or ED impacts
D
E
F
Sig
Lik
Rsk
1.
Livelihoods
Microcredit
enterprises
Erratic rainfall could mean
enterprises fail.
4
3
12
2
2
4
3
4
12
Changes in rainfall mean tree
pests breed faster; trees are
dying. Likely to get worse.
4
4
16
Alley
cropping
Trees may be susceptible to tree
pests, preventing them from
protecting crops
3
2
6
3. All
sectors
All projects
The risk of flooding could lead to
beneficiaries’ homes being
destroyed. This may affect their
involvement in the project.
4
4
16
4. New
sector
New project
2
1
2
Predicted landslides mean
communities may need to
relocate.
Rank the
risks/ prioritise
the hazards
2.
Agriculture
Tree
nurseries
Rapid run-off is reducing soil
quality.
Potential impacts associated with
this project
G
Adaptation
option