Download equity valuation model of Vietnamese companies in foreign

Proceedings of the 2012 Winter Simulation Conference
C. Laroque, J. Himmelspach, R. Pasupathy, O. Rose, and A.M. Uhrmacher, eds
EQUITY VALUATION MODEL OF VIETNAMESE COMPANIES
IN A FOREIGN SECURITIES MARKET- A SIMULATION APPROACH
Nguyen Dang Minh
Nguyen Thi Minh Hue
University of Economics and Business, Vietnam
National University, Hanoi
Xuan Thuy Road, 144
Cau Giay Dist, Hanoi, VIETNAM
School of Banking and Finance
National Economics University
Giai Phong Street, 207
Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi, VIETNAM
Nguyen Thi Thuy Dzung
Nguyen Dang Toan
Academy of Finance
Phan Huy Chu Street, 8
Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi, VIETNAM
Media Tenor Vietnam
Trung Tien Street, 10
Dong Da Dist, Hanoi, VIETNAM
ABSTRACT
Listed companies in Vietnamese securities market have not employed any consistent equity valuation
models; some models based on the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) produced unpersuasive results because the CAPM’s assumptions do not hold in an emerging market like Vietnam. The problem has been considered as one possible reason for the unpredictable stock prices in the Vietnamese securities market. The purpose of this paper is to propose a suitable equity valuation model of Vietnamese
companies under the concern of international investors. In particular, the paper studied the Hybrid Adjusted CAPM (AH-CAPM) model with an international securities market in the region being used as a
benchmark. The proposed model was also tested with a typical Vietnamese company to check the feasibility of the model and the ease of capital mobilization from foreign securities markets.
1
INTRODUCTION
After 10 years of development, the Vietnamese securities market is still an emerging market with basic
characteristics of low liquidity, information asymmetries and inefficient regulation, etc. Consequently,
stocks price did not reflect the intrinsic value of a company; conventional valuation models failed to estimate the stocks’ price. Besides, although stocks price as well as equity value resulting from company valuation models have been popular in international academics and practice (Pereiro 2006, Kim 2012), Vietnamese companies and practitioners have remained in the first stage of company valuation
understandings. For example, most of the Vietnamese research papers studied the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (Sharpe 1964, Lintner 1965, Black 1972) while its basic assumptions could not be held
in emerging securities markets. Thus, Vietnamese companies need to have a customized practical model
in calculating their equity value under the characteristics of an emerging market.
More importantly, there is a factual demand for a better equity valuation model from some Vietnamese big listed companies who have recently planned to list their stocks in foreign securities markets. These companies hope to benefit from cross-listing such as being better valued, internationally recognized
and accessible to global capital, etc. (Doukas and Switzer 2000, Foerster and Karolyi 1999). To realize
such advantages, a successful listing requires an appropriate stock’s offering price. Therefore, the main
978-1-4673-4780-8/12/$31.00 ©2012 IEEE
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purpose of this research is to propose an equity valuation model which possibly is used by big Vietnamese companies to estimate their stocks price in a foreign securities market. In addition, a gap between Vietnamese and the international literature on company valuation in emerging markets can also be bridged.
Pereiro (2002) introduced a company valuation model in emerging markets under a practical approach. The fundamental-based valuation method, named Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF), should
be tailored to specific contexts. Therefore, the DCF method applied in equity valuation of emerging markets is customized in regard to two important components: (1) the cost of equity known as the discount
rate and (2) the free cash flow to equity of the company.
In the first component, the measurement of the cost of equity has been introduced in two main theoretical strands such as CAPM-based models (Sharpe 1964, Lintner 1965, Black 1972, Obrien 1999, Godfrey and Espinosa 1996) and non-CAPM based models (Estrada 2000, Erb-Harvey-Viskanta 1996). Nevertheless, only the CAPM-based models were discussed in this research because the models have been
developed to different versions so that a specific market possibly finds a suitable one. The first versionthe Global CAPM model (Obrien 1999) supposes that the world financial market is completely integrated,
then geographic diversification makes unsystematic risk disappear. However, the implication of G-CAPM
in the imperfect market is still controversial due to the existence of country risk. The second version- the
Local CAPM (L-CAPM) is used when the markets are segmented (Pereiro 2002). Nonetheless, L-CAPM
seems to double-count the country risk in the cost of equity (Godfrey and Espinosa 1996). To correct the
risk’s overestimation, Pereiro (2002) adds the (1- R2) factor in Adjusted L-CAPM (AL-CAPM) with R2
being the coefficient of determination of the regression between the volatility of the firm and the volatility
of the market. To deal with the data quality problem as well as to capture both local and global factors,
the Adjusted Hybrid CAPM-based model (AH-CAPM) (Pereiro 2002) is preferred to employ. This model
uses US market as the benchmark to calculate the cost of equity in an emerging country.
CE = RFG + RC +BCLG [BGG (RMG –RFG)] (1−R2)
With RFG is the global risk-free rate; RC is the country risk premium; BCLG is the country beta; BGG is
the average unlevered beta of comparable companies quoting in the global market; RMG is the global market return; R2 is the coefficient of determination of the regression between the equity volatility of the local
market against the variation in country risk.
In emerging markets, equity valuation is still a controversial issue. The adjusted versions of CAPMbased method has been made based on the availability of local data and the degree of market integration
(Javier et al. 2007). Pereiro (2005) showed that different CAPM-based versions including G-CAPM, LCAPM, AH-CAPM were used in calculating the cost of equity in Argentina with benchmark being US
securities market. Other research used CAPM methods to estimate the cost of equity based on local factors: Bruner and Chan (2002) used four CAPM-related models to estimate the cost of equity of large firms
in Brazil, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia and Poland; Kim (2012) considered and compared between
CAPM methods to price assets in Korean stock market.
In this research, due to the similarity between Vietnam and researched countries Pereiro (2005), the
AH-CAPM was studied to estimate the cost of equity of the large Vietnamese companies. However, the
U.S. benchmark market seems irrelevant to Vietnam because the Vietnamese stocks market has not been
integrated to the global market. Therefore, the AH-CAPM was adjusted by using regional market data
(i.e a developed South East Asian stocks market) rather than global market data.
In the second component of projecting free cash flow to equity (FCFEs) for Vietnamese companies,
our proposed model relied on business plan analyses, sale volume forecasts and inflation adjustments, etc.
More importantly, the FCFEs were converted into the foreign currency of the chosen foreign securities
market by suggested exchange rates. The foreign exchange rate has been considered uncertain in Vietnam
because the Vietnamese government has not let the foreign exchange market float freely. Therefore, to
project the FCFEs in a foreign currency, the exchange rate factor was simulated randomly through Monte
Carlo simulation method within a specified range and probability distribution (Holtan 2002) with the support of Crystal Ball software.
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In short, the paper aims to build a suitable model to estimate the equity values of Vietnamese companies denominated in a foreign currency. The study was done by discounting foreign currency-converted
FCFEs with the cost of equity which was defined by the customized AH-CAPM model. The AH- CAPM
model’s customization and the simulation approach brought a new practical way in forecasting equity
values as well as stock prices for Vietnamese practitioners and managers.
The paper is organized as follows. The research methodology and fundamentals of the Discounted
Cash-flows model are presented in section 2 and 3. Results from discussions with financial experts are introduced in section 4. Finally, the model is proposed in section 5 and tested on a specific company in section 6.
2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The research methodology of this paper is shown in Figure 1:
Equity valuation model of Vietnamese companies in
a foreign securities market
Literature review of equity valuation models
based on Discounted Cash Flow method
Discussions and interviews with financial experts
and managers
Proposed equity valuation model of Vietnamese companies
in an foreign securities market – Simulation approach
No
Model confirmation with financial
experts and managers
Yes
Model testing on a typical Vietnamese company
Conclusion
Figure 1: Research Methodology Diagram
The research was developed with a combination of theoretical and practical approach:
• First, an academic model was studied from literature review.
• Second, discussions and interviews with financial experts and managers were held to obtain practical opinions and to construct the suitable valuation model under Vietnamese context.
• Third, Vietnamese equity valuation model was proposed on the basis of the academic and practical viewpoints.
• Fourth, the proposed model was confirmed again with the financial experts and managers.
• Fifth, the feasibility of the model was tested on a typical Vietnamese company in a foreign developed securities market in South East Asia (i.e Singapore Exchange market).
• Sixth, general revision was carried out to conclude the study.
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3
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW METHOD
DCF method is very popular in finance text book (Arnold 2007, Reilly and Brown 2008). In this method,
value of equity is determined by the present value of expected cash-flows to equity.
Figure 2 illustrates three major steps to derive this value.
•
•
•
Step 1: Estimate cost of equity (k) that reflects shareholders’ risk.
Step 2: Model free cash flows to equity (FCFEs). These cash-flows comprise (i) cash-flows generated in short and medium term (planning period) and (ii) cash-flows generated after planning
period to infinity (terminal value- TV).
Step 3: Discount the projected cash-flow by the cost of equity to compute equity’s value.
Standard DCF method
Step 2: Model FCFE
Step 1: Estimate cost of equity (k)
0 1
2
3…. n n+1…………………∞
Planning period
Terminal Value period
Step 3: Compute equity value
EV= =
∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸𝑖
(1+𝑘)𝑛
+
𝑇𝑉
(1+𝑘)𝑛
Figure 2: Standard Discounted Cash Flow method
DCF method was selected as a basis to our proposed valuation model for following reasons:
• It is flexible to modify the conventional valuation model used in developed markets to incorporate emerging country’s risk; either cash-flow projection or discount rate can be altered to reflect
economic condition. This explains why DCF is the primary valuation method preferred in emerging countries (Pereiro 2002, James and Koller 2000).
• DCF method provides intrinsic value. Since Vietnamese companies may choose to list in different
overseas securities market, intrinsic value as the fundamental value of equity is more broadly
helpful than an extrinsic value (a stock price specifically suggested for one market).
4
DISCUSSIONS AND INTERVIEWS WITH FINANCIAL EXPERTS AND MANAGERS
The discussions and interviews with Vietnamese financial experts and managers were done to address the
two following important issues:
4.1
Suitable Cost Of Equity’s Model
Among different asset pricing models, two academic seminars with attendees being from universities, research institutes, General Statistics Office, State Bank of Vietnam, State Security Commission were organized. The first seminar revolved around “Vietnam’s cost of equity model should be CAPM-based or nonCAPM based? The financial experts and researchers agreed upon the use of CAPM-based model because
of the ease in its variables’ forecast and CAPM-based model’s customization to emerging countries like
Vietnam. The second seminar was held to answer which CAPM-based model is suitable to Vietnam. Five
models were raised including G-CAPM, L-CAPM, AL-CAPM, AH-CAPM and Godfrey-Espinosa Model. Participants commented on each method’s advantages, disadvantages and feasibility in Vietnam context. Finally, the AH-CAPM model was selected, but this model needs to be adjusted to the level of Vietnam’s securities market development.
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4.2
FCFEs’ Determinants
The targeted interviewees were not only financial experts but also experienced managers of big and international companies in Vietnam. As these companies have been oriented toward international standards,
they are more concerned with macro-economic conditions than their unsystematic risks. The financial experts and managers shared their viewpoints on the impact of some major determinants on Vietnamese
company’s FCFEs. As seen in Table 1, the most risky factor to company’s FCFEs is the foreign exchange
rate when all of the experts and managers stated that they could not estimate the State Bank of Vietnam’s
adjustment towards exchange rate. Inflation was agreed to be considered to project FCFEs due to high inflation rates in recent years. Economic growth was used to estimate FCFEs after the planning period when
the mature companies were assumed to grow along with the economy. Company risks seemed not to affect substantially FCFEs because these companies are big and stable. The managers and experts mostly
agreed that their target sale volume of the planning year was usually adjusted based on their past sale performance.
Table 1: Interview results on FCFE’s determinants
Impact of determinants to FCFE
Inflation
Economic
growth
Foreign exchange rate
Past sales
volume
Company
risks1
Food processing
Textiles
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Strongly yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
Automobile
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Agricultural machines
Electronics
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Firmly Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
National Economics University
Yes
Yes
Surely
Yes
No
General Statistics Office
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Development Strategy Institute
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Interviewees
Financial
managers
Financial
experts
1
5
Company risks refer as unsystematic risks such as change of management board, operational risks, etc.
THE PROPOSED EQUITY VALUATION MODEL
After reviewing literature on equity valuation in emerging markets and the viewpoints of Vietnamese financial experts and managers, the proposed model is developed from standard DCF model as in Figure 3.
5.1
Cost of Equity Computation
As seen in equation (1) of the Figure 3, the Adjusted Hybrid CAPM (Pereiro 2002) is modified to Vietnamese context by using market data from a foreign securities market in the South East Asia region as
benchmark values. The modified variables were also reconfirmed in the discussions with Vietnamese experts and practitioners. The equation’s variables are explained in details as follows:
RFRX is the risk free rate of an investigated foreign market (hereby refer as X market). The research
model stands on the foreign investors’ viewpoint; the investors will compare the market return as well as
a specific investment return with their own risk free return. As the result, T-bond 10- Years rate of X government is adopted as the risk-free rate.
RCVN represents the country risks of Vietnam that foreign investors have to bear when they invest in
another country like Vietnam; this is the premium added to the expected return of a foreign investor to
compensate the country risks. In this case, Vietnamese country risk premium is calculated by the spread
of Vietnamese sovereign bonds over equivalent bonds of the X market.
BVN is the country Beta which is referred as the slope regression between Vietnamese equity market
index (VN index) and X market index.
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BUX is the average unlevered beta of comparable companies quoting in the X securities market. Unlevered Beta helps to remove the effect of debt on capital structure. As a result, this approach allows a
foreign investor compares the real level of risk between different companies. Unlevered beta is calculated
by Hamada (1969)’s equation: BuX =
𝑩𝑿
𝒍
𝟏+(𝟏−𝒕𝑿 ) 𝒙 𝑫/𝑬
with 𝑩𝑿𝒍 being Levered Beta of a comparable compa-
ny; 𝒕𝑿 being Corporate tax of the foreign country; D/E being Debt/Equity ratio of the company.
RMTX is the X market return. Then (RMTX – RFRX) is referred as market risk premium that foreign investors require to compensate their X market risk.
(1-R2VN) is the factor to alleviate the double-estimation of country risk premium on cost of equity.
2
R VN is the coefficient of determination of the regression between the volatility of Vietnam’s securities
market index (VN-index) against the variation in country premium risk.
5.2
Free Cash-Flows to Equity (FCFEs) Calculation in X currency
5.2.1 FCFEs in Real Value
The technique to model free cash flows to equity (FCFEs) has been exhaustively discussed in finance
textbook (Damodaran 2006, Arnold 2007). The paper only addressed some noteworthy points to value
Vietnamese companies.
Firstly, we proposed that the companies should have a five-year planning period in which they have
detailed FCFEs’ forecast in each year. A longer-term prediction (of 10 or 15 years) will produce less accurate results due to the volatile economic conditions in Vietnam. Besides, planning period is often regarded as a firm’s extraordinary growth period (Pereiro 2002). Most listed big companies in Vietnam
have reached their mature stage (or operated in mature industries); thus, their time to maintain high
growth rate is likely to be shortened. In short, five-year planning horizon is reasonable given the features
of Vietnamese economy and its listed big companies.
Secondly, expected FCFEs in planning period were derived from the projected financial statements;
the process was shown in equation (2) in Figure 3. Because listed companies are required to public historical financial data and future business plan to investors, appraisals can employ the information to build
financial statements for up-coming years.
Finally, Terminal Value (TV) can be estimated by assuming that company will grow at constant rate g
from planning period to infinity as described in equation (3). Since most big listed Vietnamese companies
are at their mature stage, a good proxy for g can be GDP growth rate. According to Pereiro (2002) and
John Tjia (2009), most mature business grow at around the economy’s growth as competition increases
and profit decreases in their operating industries.
5.2.2 Inflation Adjustment to FCFEs
Inflation is among key concerns of Vietnamese companies in our interviews. Equation (4) is used to deal
with inflation, in which the projected financial statements in real term will be multiplied with expected inflation rate in the next year to obtain nominal value.
5.2.3 Currency Conversion
At this step, FCFEi and TV denominated in VND were converted into the listing currency used in a foreign stock market (hereafter refer to X currency). The literature (McKinsey et al. 2010, Pereiro 2002)
suggested two alternatives: using spot exchange rate or forward exchange rate. The former first discounts
the VND projected cash-flows with the VND discount rate; then translates the present value of equity in
VND into X currency using current spot exchange rate X/VND. Since most asset pricing models (including AH-CAPM model) provide a discount rate expressed in the currency of a developed market, the unavailability of VND discount rate led to our preference of the second option.
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Standard DCF model
0 1
2 3… n… n+1……………….∞
Planning period Terminal Value period
PV =
∑ni=1 FCFEi
(1+k)n
+
TV
(1+ k)n
5. 2. FCFEs in X currency Calculation
5. 1. Cost of equity Computation
CE= RFRX+ RCVN+ BVN x BUX x
(1)
(RMTX – RFRX) x (1-R2VN)
CE: Cost of equity of Vietnamese
firm; RFRX: Risk-free rate of foreign
country; RCVN: Country risk premium
of Vietnam; BVN: Beta country of Vietnam; BUX: Average unlevered Beta
of comparable company in foreign
market; RMTX: Foreign market index
with series 10 years; (1-R2VN): Factor
alleviating the equity risk premium
5.2.1 FCFE in real value
In planning period : FCFEi (i=1,5) = Net income + Depreciation & Amortization Expense- Capital Expenditure- Changes in Working capital - Principal Debt Repayment+ New Debt Issue
(2)
In terminal value period:
FCFE5 x g
TV=
(g: growth rate)
(3)
(𝑘−𝑔)
5.2.2 Inflation Adjustment to FCFEs:
FCFEi (nominal) = FCFEi (Real) x(1 + ℎ)𝑖
(4)
(h: inflation rate)
5.2.3 Currency Conversion
Simulation
Input
Spot rate
FX0
*FXi = FX0 x�
1+ rVND
i
1+ rX
i
* FCFEi (in X) =
* TV (in X) =
i
� ; (i=1, 5)
FCFEi (in VND)
FXi
TV(inVND)
∑5i=1 FCFEi (in X)
(1+k)i
+
TV (in X)
(1+k)5
; (i=1,5)
(8)
(6)
(7)
FX5
5.3. Equity Value in X currency
EV (in X) =
(5)
Simulation
Output
Equity value
in X
SIMULATION STUDY
Figure 3: The proposed equity valuation model of Vietnamese companies in foreign securities market
Following the second method, cash-flows and terminal value in VND were converted into X currency
on a year-by-year basis using the forward exchange rate. The obtained figures (FCFEi and TV in X currency) were then discounted at X-based cost of equity which was drawn from the AH-CAPM model.
However, in Vietnam, a forward-exchange market is nonexistent. Therefore, it is necessary to compute
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the forward exchange rate from the spot current exchange rate using the interest rate parity theory as in
equation (5) in Figure 3.
As discussed in section 4.2, the spot exchange rate was confirmed by the interviewees to be among
one of highly uncertain macro-economic factors because under the semi-floating foreign exchange regime
in Vietnam, the exchange rate is significantly influenced by subjective adjustment from the government.
Therefore, to enhance the reliability of the final equity value, Monte Carlo Simulation was employed to
address the estimation of the forward exchange rate.
5.3
Equity Value denominated in X currency
After cost of equity from equation (1) and free cash-flows to equity denominated in X currency from
equation (6) and (7) were obtained, equity value was derived as in equation (8).
5.4
Simulation Study
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) “relies on repeated random sampling and statistical analysis to compute
the results” (Raychaudhuri 2008). MCS can be run in practice by software like Crystal Ball Professional
Edition suite (Lawrence 2002). MCS in our proposed model has the double- functions. Like the conventional application, MCS assists the assessment of equity value’s variability originated from the uncertain
spot exchange rate. Furthermore, MCS also provides a sound basis for valuation practitioners to estimate
the forward exchange rate which is not available in Vietnam. Following MCS’s methodology suggested
by Raychaudhuri (2008), we developed our simulation logic as in the Figure 3.
• Input: the spot foreign exchange rate is selected as the simulation input. To identify a statistical
distribution that best captures its variability, valuation practitioners can rely on available historical data on the spot exchange rate as well as fitting procedures widely discussed in the literature
(Raychaudhuri 2008, Law 2011).
• Logical Model: The logical relationship describes the transformation mechanism from input to
output which includes box 5.2.3 and 5.3 in Figure (3). To describe, FX0 firstly takes a random
value that conforms to its probability distribution. Each given FX0 generates a set of forward exchange rate at a term i (FX1, FX2,.., FX5) through the equation (5). Then, the FCFEi in VND is divided by FXi on year-by- year basis and TV in VND by FX5; the projected cash-flows expressed
in X currency is obtained through the equation (6) and (7).
• Outputs: When FX0 was attributed a random value, a value of equity was collected. After thousands of iterations, a distribution of equity value for statistical analysis was established.
5.5
Model’s Confirmation With Experts and Practitioners
The model was presented again with the investigated experts and practitioners. They had feedback on the
customized variables of the cost of equity computation. The AH-CAPM could not apply totally in Vietnam, only the idea of the model was used and the model was modified by the proposed way. In addition,
the comments of the experts and practitioners were on FCFEs calculations in which each factor was discussed to get the agreed factors. Finally, the proposed model has gained agreement between academic experts and practitioners before the model testing with a typical Vietnamese company
6.
MODEL TESTING
The proposed model was tested on a typical big listed Vietnamese company manufacturing dairy products
(company A) with the foreign securities market, that being the Singapore Securities market (SGX). The
company A is a recognized company with transparent audited financial reports. Therefore, different
agents will acess the same information
6.1
Cost of Equity Computation for company A
The cost of equity of the company A was calculated following the fomular 5.1 in Figure 3 with the details
below:
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Variables
RFRX: 10 years T-Bond Singapore
RCVN: Vietnam Country Risk Premium
BVN: Country Beta of Vietnam
Table 2: Cost of equity for company A
Source of data
http://asianbondsonline.adb.org/singapore.php
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctrypre
m.html
Author estimates by regressing VN-Index over MSCI Singapore index in
10 years
BUX: Beta of comparable company
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=FRN
listed in SGX
M.SI
RMTX: MSCI Singapore Index
http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/EWS.htm
1-R2VN
Adjusted Local CAPM Variants (Pereiro 2002, p111)
Cost of equity (k): Adjusted Hybrid CAPM model for Vietnamese company valuation
CE= RFRX+ RCVN+ BVN x BUX x (RMTX – RFRX) x (1-R2VN)= 19.93879
Value
1.5
6%
2.5710
0.8071
11.49%
0.6
6.2
FCFEs Estimation for company A
Table 3 summarizes the result of FCFEs estimation for company A based on the company‘s audited financial reports. FCFEs were drawn from projected financial statements while terminal growth rate g was
predicted at future Vietnam’s GDP growth rate 6.5% (SBV 2012). The average inflation rate for 20122017 was forecasted at 10%/ year (SBV 2012) with benchmark year being 2012. The forward exchange
rate SGX/VND was calculated based on the Vietnamese and Singaporean government bond rate at term 1
year to 5 years (AsiaBondsOnline 2012).
Table 3: Equity valuation for company A
HISTORICAL DATA
(Sources: financial statements published in the official website of the company)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Sales (billion VND)
6,289.44
6,675.030
8,380.560
10,820.140
16,081.466
Net income (billion VND)
659.890
963.448
1,248.690
2,378.070
3,165.000
(9.235)
(201.182)
941.008
2,554.877
1,520.251
FCFE from 2006-2011
FORECASTED DATA
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sales (b.VND)
26,480.000
31,780.000
38,130.000
45,760.000
54,900.000
Net income (b.VND)
4,690.000
5,230.000
5,720.000
6,180.000
6,870.000
FCFEs 2012-2017 (b. VND)
8,797.635
5,113.422
5,424.545
5,664.377
6,097.289
Perpetual growth rate (g)
Terminal value (b. VND)
Average inflation rate
10%
Inflation- adjusted FCFEs
8,797.635
5,624.764
6,563.699
7,539.286
8,927.041
Inflation- adjusted TV
Spot VND/SGD
16,509.000
Forward FX rate
18,358.015
20,435.399
22,661.327
25,073.691
0.533
0.306
0.321
0.333
0.356
FCFEs 2012-2017(b.SGD)
Terminal Value (b.SGD)
19.94
Cost of equity (%)
2.1656
Equity value (bSGX)
2011
22,071.000
4,218.000
856.794
2017
65,880.00
7,557.000
6,309.724
6.5%
49,998.925
10,161.873
80,523.769
27,635.578
0.368
2.914
6.3
Company A’s Equity Value and Simulation Study
As seen in Table (3), equity value calculated for company A is 2.1656 billion $SGD. However, if the spot
VND/SGD rate fluctuates in 2012, the final equity value will be altered correspondingly. Therefore, Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out to examine the stability of the equity value. Firstly, function FIT in
Crystal-Ball software was used for 50 historical observations of monthly average VND/SGD spot rate
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during 2008-2012 to determine its distribution probability. Figure 4 shows that the VND/SGD spot rate
has Pareto distribution with its parameters location and shape being 11,234.61 and 5.52296 accordingly.
Figure 4: Spot VND/SGD distribution probability
In the simulation settings, Monte Carlo sampling method and confidence level of 95% are selected.
After 10,000 trials, the result was shown in the forecast chart (Figure 5); 80% of probability the equity
value of firm A ranges from 1.97 to 3.1 $billion SGD. The statistics view also shows that the final equity
values’ distribution seems to be beta distribution.
Figure 5: Simulation result for company A’s equity value forecasted in SGD
With 0.55 billion outstanding shares, 80% of probability that firm A’s price per shares varies from
3.58 to 5.61 $SGD. In comparison with another dairy products- making company in Singapore with current share price being 6.7 $SGD, company A’s stock may considered to be competitively lower. Hence,
company A might have a good reasoning to float its stock in SGX.
6.4
Sensitivity Analysis
To examine the sensitivity of the proposed model, inflation rate and perpetual growth rate is changed. The
former adopts the triangular distribution with minimum, maximum and likeliest value being 8%, 15%,
13% correspondingly (SBV 2012). The later has the triangular distribution with its similar value being
5%, 8%, 7% (SBV 2012). Sensitivity chart (Figure 6) shows that FX rate proves the most influential factor on equity value in X currency; it contributes to 83.6% to the equity value’s variance. Next comes inflation rate (12.9%) and perpetual growth rate comes last (3.4%).
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Figure 6: The sensitivity chart
7
CONCLUSION
The paper raised a new approach to Vietnamese companies in their equity valuation. In respect to international investors’ perspectives, the proposed model avoided the problems of illiquidity, low volume, unstable and unreliable data, etc. in Vietnam securities markets by using another developed foreign securities market in the region. In addition, through the interviews with domestic experts and managers, the
proposed model was customized and adjusted to match with Vietnamese circumstances. The feasibility
and ease of the model was also proved by a model testing on a typical and big Vietnamese company. As a
result, the proposed equity valuation model was highly appreciated by Vietnamese financial experts and
practitioners; and the tested company A has been applied the model to calculate its stock price as reference data in its cross-listing plan. The equity value denominated in a foreign currency may give the signal
to Vietnamese managers in deciding whether they should issue their firm securities in other foreign markets. Therefore, the proposed equity valuation model has planned to expand and apply to other Vietnamese companies to strengthen the Vietnamese capital mobilization from foreign securities markets
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AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES
NGUYEN, DANG MINH is Director of Research, Cooperation and Development Department, University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi. His research interests are in the area
of in securities and investment analyses, optimization of make or buy decision making process, production line design using simulation and multiple economic factors. His email address is
[email protected].
NGUYEN, THI MINH HUE is a lecturer in School of Banking and Finance, National Economics University and also a researcher of Vietnam Development Forum. Her research interests are in securities and
investment analyses, portfolio and financial managements, firm valuations. Her email address is
[email protected] / [email protected].
NGUYEN, THI THUY DZUNG is a lecturer on Banking at Academy of Finance, Hanoi, Vietnam and a
researcher at Vietnam Development Forum (VDF). Her research interests are in capital structure of firms
and company valuation in emerging markets. Her email address is [email protected].
NGUYEN, DANG TOAN is a researcher at Media Tenor Vietnam and Vietnam Development Forum.
His research interests are Monte Carlo methods with a specific focus on Corporate Valuation and Stock
Valuation. His email address is [email protected].
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