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Spring Real Estate
Office Market Outlook
Amsterdam region | H1 2015
User Market | Investment Market
Spring
Real Estate
Laan der Hesperiden 112
1076 DX Amsterdam
+31 (0)20 658 95 98
www.springrealestate.nl
[email protected]
Spring Real Estate
Index
004
Introduction
005
Market Overview
006
User Market
008
Investment Market
010
Conclusion
012
Market Outlook
013
Definitions
003
Amsterdam region
Introduction
Cumulative investments over time
600
400
200
2013
2015
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
2014
Forecast
Top investment transactions H1 2015
Building
Area
Buyer
Seller
1.
Leeuwenburg
Amstel
Vastint
Van der Vorm
61
953
2.
Paleis justitie*
Centrum
M7
Rijksvastgoed
61
3,984
3.
INIT
Centrum
Lone Star
Pramerica
59
1,723
4.
Zuiderhof I
Zuidas
First Sponsor
AEW Europe
52
4,120
5.
Beethoven 500
Zuidas
HIH Global invest
G&S Vastgoed
30
€ in m.
€/m²
5,000
* Purchased with the purpose of transformation
Cumulative net take-up over time
300
Net take-up in m2 (x1000)
250
1
Spring Real Estate
200
150
100
50
Spring Real Estate is a nationally operating, independent real estate
consulting firm. We specialize in advising investors and owner-occupiers of
commercial real3estate. Spring Real Estate consists of a team of highly
5
1
motivated and experienced
property consultants who are able to supply a
complete range of services.
2013
2014
2015
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Jan
0
We provide our advice based on the following core values:
- Independent and efficient services
- High level of knowledge
- Transparant Procedures
We advise all actors in the real estate market and we are always able to
advise our clients from an independent position. We are a dynamic
organization with short lines of communication with our clients. We have a
stong multidisciplinary network from which we strive to always increase our
knowledge. This knowledge enables us to continuously improve our
services.
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0
While the investment volume grew significantly between 2013 and 2014, the
take-up volume in 2014 was just slightly higher than the previous year. In
general, the effective demand for office space shows continous decline, due
to a decline in the average space needed per employee. The majority of the
take-up in both 2013 and 2014 consisted of (1) large long-term rental
8
41
agreements in office
space still under construction and (2) location or
12
relocation of firms
to secondary office locations due to cost-saving
1
176
considerations. Examples
of the latter are ING Bank in Zuidoost (24,500 m²)
and Atos Benelux
1 in Amstelveen (9,000 m²). Large rental agreements in the
first half year of 2015 have not been seen as yet.
9
800
Apr
The investment volume that has been recorded in the first half of 2015 is
lower than in previous years. This is mainly caused by the fact that most of
the prime offices in the region changed ownership in 2013 and 2014. In line
with both 2013 and 2014, it is foreseen that the investment volume will take
a significant sprint in the second half of 2015. The upcoming liquidation of
funds will contribute to this sprint.
1000
Mar
In addition, a large share of the investment volume is attributable to a large
supply of prime office space under construction. Only a few commercial
property developers have survived the financial crisis, by developing or
redeveloping sustainable and customized office space in prime office
locations and selling it with long-term lease agreements to large institutional
investors with low yield.
1200
Feb
The interest of foreign investors is mainly the result of the significant
impairment of property
since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, causing
6
attractive purchase prices and high yields. There is a lack of domestic
investors when it comes to large transactions. Yet, they are overrepresented
regarding sales. Due to a low investment volume in 2008-2012, domestic
investors could barely adjust their portfolio with income from sales.
Therefore, investors are taking the opportunity to reallocate their assets,
now that foreign investors have less trouble funding their investments.
There is a notable shift among domestic investors from direct property
investments to listed property shares.
1400
Jan
1
1600
Volume in m. (x1000)
After seven years of financial crisis, the signs of a resurging real estate
market in the Netherlands can no longer be denied. As both institutional
and private-equity investors expand their commercial real estate
investments, mostly financed by foreign capital, the office market in the
Amsterdam region has reached its highest investment volume since 2007.
Almost 625,000 square meters of office space has changed hands, reflecting
2
a total investment volume of nearly 1.5 bn euros. This is an increase of
9
nearly 40 percent compared with 2013.
Forecast
Top rental transactions 2015 H1
Building
Area
Trans. type
Tenant
m²
€/m²
1.
The Edge
Zuidas
New lease
Henkel
3,300
330
2.
The Edge
Zuidas
New lease
Salesforce.com
2,650
330
3.
Vijzelstraat
Centrum
New lease
Credit mgmt
2,520
240
4.
Q-Port
Sloterdijk
New lease
Credit mgmt
3,050
170
5.
Alpha Towers
Centrum
New lease
Greetz
3,854
120
004
Amsterdam region
Market Overview
1. Zuidas: the central business district of the Netherlands. Zuidas is still in
rapid development and contains primarily high quality office space. Zuidas is
located on both sides of the south-ring of the A10 Highway, between the
Amstel river and Schinkel river.
10. Amstelveen: a municipality south of Amsterdam. The office market in
Amstelveen is a large and for the most part secondary market. It contains
relatively many office buildings developed in the 1970s and the '80s.
11. Riekerpolder: a former polder developed into a business park in the
1990s and the '00s. It is situated near the A4/A10 junction, between Zuidas
and Westas. It therefore acts as a southern gate of Amsterdam.
2. Centrum: the old centre of Amsterdam, characterized by great diversity.
Offices are mainly concentrated in the Canal District, the Central Station area
and along the shore of the IJ river.
12. Houthavens: former industrial area, specialized in the trade of timber.
Houthavens is currently under rapid urban development. It is situated on the
southern shore of the IJ river in close proximity to Centrum and Oud-West.
3. Zuidoost: major urban sprawl from the 1960s and '70s. Zuidoost is situated
between Diemen and the A2/A9/A10 highways. Offices are mainly
concentrated around the Bijlmer ArenA station and along the A2. There is a
significant difference between the offices north and south of the A9 highway.
13. Overamstel: in previous years a mediocre business park along the shore
of the Amstel river. Overamstel is currently being transformed into a
multifunctional area, due to large-scale residential development.
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort: major secondary office location, mostly developed
between the 1980s and '90s. It is located in the north-west of Amsterdam and
houses both large-scale offices as well as major industrial activity.
14. Zuid/Buitenveldert: Zuid is the area on the western shore of the Amstel
river and contains only a few large office buildings. Buitenveldert is the area
between Amstelveen and Zuidas, and includes both new as well as relatively
old office buildings. The areas are seperated by the A10 highway.
5. Oud-zuid: situated between Centrum and Zuidas, for the most part
developed in the 19th century. Oud-Zuid includes the richest neighborhoods
in the Amsterdam region. The office market in Oud-Zuid is as diverse as the
office market in Centrum, including both very expensive and high-quality
office space and office space with a relatively lower quality.
15. Noord: large multifunctional district north of the IJ river. A large part of
the stock was recently developed, while the rest of the stock is relatively old.
6. Amstel station: prime office market situated on a peninsula on the eastern
shore of the Amstel River. The Amstel station area includes only a few, yet
very large, office buildings, developed between the 1970s and early '00s.
16. Oost: a large multifunctional area east of the Amstel river. It includes
relatively new offices on the south shore of the IJ river, new developments in
Amsterdam Science Park and the relatively old offices on Wibautstraat.
7. Hoofddorp: one of the larger secondary office markets in the Netherlands,
situated south-west of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. Hoofddorp includes both
low-quality office space developed in the 1980s and '90s as well as high
quality office space developed in recent years.
17. Westas: secondary office market situated along west-ring of the A10
highway. It has fierce competition from surrounding office locations.
18. Oud-west: includes few large office buildings, mostly developed in 1980s
and '80s. The office stock is in great decline due to transformation.
8. Schiphol: situated in direct proximity to the Amsterdam Airport Terminal,
containing WTC Schiphol Airport and other large-scale office buildings.
19. Nieuw-West: urban sprawl from the 1950s. Nieuw-West includes a few
office buildings, mainly owner-occupied by municipal enterprises.
9. Schiphol-Rijk: situated between the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol and
Hoofddorp, developed before the turn of the century.
20. Diemen: a municipality south-east of amsterdam. The office stock in
Diemen is in great decline due to demolition of obsolete offices.
12
4
15
Large-scale withdrawals and developments from previous years have led to healthy office markets;
18
19
2
17
5
11
7
16
1
14
8
6
10
20
13
3
9
005
Amsterdam region
User Market
#
#
Current stock in m² (incl. stock under construction/in redevelopment)
> 1 bn.
0.8-1 bn.
0.6-0.8 bn.
0.4 0.6 bn.
0.2-0.4 bn.
< 0.2 bn.
4
15
12
18
19
2
17
16
5
1
11
6
20
13
14
8
7
3
10
9
Net rental take-up in 2014 relative to stock
>5%
4-5%
3-4%
2-3%
1-2%
<1%
18
17
19
18
17
17
16
8
87
16
6
15
16
20
1314 6 13
1
1 14
13
20
11
10
7
2
22
5
1
11 55
20
19
3
10
9
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
6. Amstel
Station
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
13. Overamstel
Zuid14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
15. Noord
Oost16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
12
15 15
14
12
11
1819
33
10
9
98
Current supply in m² relative to stock
>25%
20-25%
15-20%
10-15 %
5-10%
<5%
Area
444
4
17
16
16
18
5
8
7
98 8
9
1
13 614
11
13
1 14
1212
13
11
10
10
8 77
2
2
222
17
5
5511
15
15
14
12
14
12
1111
1918
1717
19
1818
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
6. Amstel
Station
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
13. Overamstel
Zuid14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
15. Noord
Oost16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
Area
4
44
Area
1615 6
15
16
20
13 2019
19
3
20
10
99
10
3 33
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
6. Amstel
Station
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
Overamstel
Zuid12.
14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
Noord
Oost15.
16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
Stock in m²
Under const.
/in redev.
849,121
967,291
1,234,971
800,177
367,820
248,227
770,121
297,885
230,913
738,142
229,252
89,218
309,227
124,196
198,901
265,458
247,192
115,954
97,300
182,000
70,757
Take-up in
m²
Relative to
stock
32,590
39,630
44,805
11,509
14,963
971
9,108
3,347
6,977
10,290
000
17,514
6,950
3,584
635
12,627
15,546
1,302
4,600
8,055
3.8%
4.1%
3.6%
1.4%
4.1%
0.4%
1.2%
1.1%
3.0%
1.4%
0.0%
19.6%
2.2%
2.9%
0.3%
4.8%
6.3%
1.1%
4.7%
4.4%
16,000
23,326
16,600
1,508
Supply in m² Vacancy rate
53,025
84,299
266,006
172,004
65,736
7,353
112,184
26,879
55,383
172,306
20,813
9,269
43,330
30,206
28,081
71,715
67,192
22,685
7,245
7,061
5%-7%
8%-10%
21%-23%
20%-22%
17%-19%
2%-4%
14%-16%
8%-10%
23%-25%
22%-24%
8%-10%
9%-11%
13%-15%
23%-25%
13%-15%
26%-28%
26%-28%
19%-21%
6%-8%
3%-5%
006
9
Amsterdam region
User Market
9000
7000
100
6000
5000
0
4000
-100
3000
2000
-200
Withdrawn
Completed
0
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
1000
2005
-300
Stock in m2 (X1000)
8000
200
2004
Completerd/withdrawn in m2 (x1000)
300
Stock
Net take-up 2013-2014 per area
60
50
40
30
20
2013
Diemen
Oud-west
Nieuw-west
Oost
Westas
Noord
Zuid
Overamstel
Houthavens
Riekerpolder
Amstelveen
Schiphol
Schiphol-Rijk
Hoofddorp
Amstel station
Oud-zuid
Sloterdijk/Westp…
Zuidoost
0
Zuidas
10
Centrum
The largest net take-up in 2014 was measured in
Zuidas, Centrum and Zuidoost.
* For the Amsterdam region, the net take-up volume
was just slightly higher in 2014.
* The net take-up in the core markets decreased
substantially in 2014 compared with 2013.
* The net take-up in relatively poor areas increased
substantially compared with 2013. This indicates an
increase in firms that choose secondary office
locations due to cost-saving considerations.
* The increased net take-up in Zuidoost is distorted by
the relocation
of ING.
81
4
Houthavens
scored
a high net take-up relative to its
*
12
stock, due
816 to the large supply of new offices.
Stock over time
Net take-up in m2 (x1000)
The stock continues to grow due to high demand for
new office buildings.
* Recently completed offices are mainly concentrated
in Centrum, Zuidas and Houthavens.
* The financial
crisis has led to a decline in the demand
2
for office9 space. As a result, there has been a strong
1
trend visible
in withdrawing obsolete office space
since 2010.
6
* Withdrawn
offices are mostly transformed into
2
hotels and
9 residences.
* In 2014, 1the stock decreased due to the large-scale
demolition of 100,000 m² of office space.
6
* Construction
of new buildings has been significantly
lower since the financial crisis.
2014
17
1
23
1
1
Net rental take-up 2014 by sector
Telecommunications
100%
Retail
90%
Real Estate
80%
Other
70%
Legal
60%
IT
Industry
50%
Human Resources
40%
Health Care
30%
Food & Beverage
20%
Facility Services
Consultancy
10%
0%
Construction
Zuidas
Centrum
Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/w…
Oud-Zuid
Hoofddorp
Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
Amstelveen
Houthavens
Overamstel
Oost
Westas
Nieuw-west
Diemen
Share of net take-up
9
Core markets appear to be diverse in take-up, while
3
the value-add
markets are more specialized.
5
1 a wide variety of sectors. Yet the legal
* Zuidas has
sector as well as the banking & insurance sector
remain large. Its take-up consists mainly of large,
long-term rental-agreements.
* With several retailers opening headquarters in
Houthavens, the area is strongly clustered.
* The telecommunication sector is mainly
concentrated in Sloterdijk and Schiphol-rijk.
* Consultancy firms and the human resources sector
tend to choose secondary office locations.
* The take-up of the IT sector is widely spread over all
markets within the Amsterdam region.
Banking & Insurance
Media & Advertising
007
Amsterdam region
Investment Market
#
#
#
Investment volume per area in 2014 (> €1,000,000)
>€500 m.
€250 m.-€500 m.
€150 m.-€250 m.
€100 m.-€150 m.
€50 m.-€100 m.
<€50 m.
4
4
4
18
19
18
17
17
16
2
2
11
11
8
8 7
9
2
16
5
1
6
14
55
10
11
15
12
14
15
11
12
19 1817
7
Area
16156
13
12
13
13
14
3
3
3
109
8
2019
20
10
9
20
Average net rent in €/m²
Area
>250
225-250
200-225
150-200
100-150
<100
4
4
1215
14 15
1211
18
18
19 17
2
2
17
1617
5
55
1
19
18
11
11
10
7 8
7
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
Station
6. Amstel
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
13. Overamstel
Zuid14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
15. Noord
Oost16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
166 16
15
20
6
14
13
12
11
14
13
8
2
13
20
9
3
3
10
109
2019
89
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
6. Amstel
Station
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
13. Overamstel
Zuid14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
15. Noord
Oost16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
Volume 2014
in m.
Volume H1
2015 in m.
524
255
88
158
93
92
142
23
28
25
61
8
15
118
9
17
124
15
11
9
8
15
4
13
11
5
6
6
Net rent
€/m²*
Incentives in
months
215 - 325
130 - 240
70 - 140
50 - 130
130 - 340
180 - 270
75 - 130
130 - 305
70 - 110
65 - 140
85 - 145
105 - 200
70 - 135
110 - 215
80 - 150
110 - 215
95 - 125
80 - 140
75 - 130
45 - 105
5 - 10
6 - 12
12 - 18
12 - 18
6 - 12
6 - 12
12 - 20
6 - 12
14 - 24
12 - 18
12 - 18
6 - 12
9 - 15
9 - 15
9 - 15
9 - 15
12 - 18
9 - 15
12 - 18
12 - 18
7.5
9
15
15
9
9
16
9
19
15
15
12
12
12
12
15
12
15
15
* Bandwidths of the gross rents deducted by the average incentive level, adjusted for outliers.
Investment style per area
Area
Core
Value-add
Opportunistic
4
4444
19
1919
19
18
1617
1717
1111
11
10
7 88
8 7
8
18
1818
17
18
17
222
2
555
115
5
1
1
8
9
15 15
15
1215
14
1212
11
12
1
2
16
161616
6
15
66 13
13
1312
14
1414
13
14
20
1010
9
10
10
20
20
19
20
3
3333
Zuidas
1. Zuidas
Centrum
2. Centrum
Zuidoost
3. Zuidoost
Sloterdijk/westpoort
4. Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Oud-Zuid
5. Oud-Zuid
Amstel
6. Amstel
Station
station
Hoofddorp
7. Hoofddorp
Schiphol
8. Schiphol
Schiphol-rijk
9. Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
10. Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
11. Riekerpolder
Houthavens
12. Houthavens
Overamstel
Overamstel
Zuid13.
14. Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
Noord
Oost15.
16. Oost
Westas
17. Westas
West
18. Oud-west
Nieuw-west
19. Nieuw-West
Diemen
20. Diemen
008
Amsterdam region
Investment Market
Dispersion of transaction prices based on 2010-2015
Great diversity in purchase prices, especially
within the ring road.
Diemen
Oost
Houthavens
Riekerpolder
Amstelveen
Hoofddorp
Oud-zuid
Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Diemen
Nieuw-west
Westas
Oud-west
Oost
Noord
Zuid/Buitenveldert
Overamstel
Houthavens
Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
Schiphol
Schiphol-Rijk
Hoofddorp
Oud-Zuid
Value-add
300
Core
200
100
0
France
*
Opportunistic
Sweden
*
400
Scotland
*
500
Israel
*
600
England
*
German investors are responsible for €534 m. in
core regions, underlining their core status.
German investors invested €64 m. in high-quality
office space in value-add markets.
American investors, mostly private-equity funds,
invested for €330 m.
American investors carried out most of the portfolio
deals, located in value-add areas.
Domestic investors are responsible for a large share
of smaller transactions.
Domestic investors invested €340 m., mostly with
acquisitions below €50 m.
700
Volume in m. (x1000)
*
Amstel Station
Purchases nationality vs investment style in 2014
Germans purchase in core, American and Dutch
investors go for value-add.
Germany
*
Zuidoost
*
Belgium
*
Net €/m2 per year
*
While the highest gross rents are paid in the areas
with the lowest level of incentives, the areas with a
low rent-level are characterized by a high level of
incentives.
The highest net rents are paid in Zuidas, ranging
from €200/m² to €375/m².
Oud-Zuid contains the largest spread, ranging from
€100/m² to €490/m².
The dispersion of monofunctional areas deviates
towards the bottom of the market.
This indicates that the bottom of the market is
significantly different in quality to nearby offices.
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Dispersion of net rent per area
Incentives tend to magnify differences between
core regions and value-add regions.
*
Centrum
0
Zuidoost
2000
Zuidas
*
4000
Zuidas
*
6000
Centrum
*
8000
Netherlands
*
10000
United States
*
Average observable purchase prices were the
highest in Zuidas and Oud-Zuid.
There is great competition among international
investors to purchase prime office space on Zuidas.
Long term lease agreements of major tenants
reflects high prices against low yields.
The lowest observable purchase prices were
measured in Diemen and Sloterdijk.
Some markets seem to have completely bottomed
out.
Low prices allow investors to withdraw office space
by transforming it into residences or hotels.
Net €/m2 per year
*
12000
009
Amsterdam region
Conclusion
2
*
30% Opportunistic
25%
Vacancy rate
The Amsterdam region includes no opportunistic
9
markets relative to the national average.
* The national average net rent is approx. € 100 per
m². The national vacancy rate is approx. 15%.
Considering this, no area within the Amsterdam
region has an opportunistic status.
* Most areas within the Amsterdam region can be
described as value-add, despite the high vacancy
rate in some areas.
Five core2 markets can be identified within the
Amsterdam
region, although some are at risk of
9
losing this status, due to an increasing vacancy rate.
20%
2Value-add
15%
9
Core
10%
5%
0%
0
50
1002
150
200
250
300
9 €/m2 per year
Net
30%
25%
2
Vacancy rate
2
The Amsterdam
region has five core office markets,
9
with high net rents and low vacancy rates.
* Zuidas is the best performing area within the
Amsterdam region.
* Oud-Zuid has the highest vacancy rate among the
core markets but excels in net rental level.
* There is a significant risk of Oud-Zuid losing its core
status.
station area has the lowest vacancy rate
* The Amstel
2
among the
9 core markets.
* Centrum2has a lower vacancy rate than Oud-Zuid,
due to its9 competitive net rent.
* Schiphol has the lowest net rent among the core
markets with an above average vacancy rate.
Zuidas
Centrum
Zuidoost
Sloterdijk
Oud-Zuid
Amstel Station
Hoofddorp
Schiphol
Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
Riekerpolder
Houthavens
Overamstel
Zuid/Buitenveldert
Noord
Oost
Westas
Oud-west
Nieuw-west
Diemen
20%
Zuidas
9
Centrum
Oud-Zuid
2
15%
Amstel Station
Schiphol
10%
5%
2
0%
0
50
9
100
150
200
250
300
Net
€/m2 per year
2
2
30%
25%
Vacancy rate
Large-scale withdrawals and developments in previous
9
years have led to healthy markets.
* Riekerpolder is considered to be an slightly above
average office market, due to a healthy ratio
between the net rent and vacancy rate. Riekerpolder
is expected to maintain its current position.
* Due to rapid urban development in previous years,
Houthavens is considered to be an average and
healthy office
market. It is expected that the vacancy
2
9
rate in Houthavens
will decrease.
Nieuw-West
has
a
low
vacancy rate due to
*
transformation.
* Diemen has a low vacancy rate mainly due to largescale demolition and transformation.
20%
Riekerpolder
Houthavens
15%
Nieuw-west
Diemen
10%
5%
0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net €/m2 per year
010
Amsterdam region
Conclusion
2
30%
25%
Vacancy rate
The following areas will remain under the threat from
9
increasing vacancy rates:
* Hoofddorp contains a huge amount of relatively old
office space. An increase in the vacancy rate is
therefore expected. The limited transformation
capabilities will lead to a decrease in net rent.
* While large-scale residential developments are
taking place in some parts of Overamstel, the
majority 2of the area is monofunctional and
9
mediocre.
* Due to a delay in a new metro line, the accessibility
of Noord remains poor. Therefore Noord has
competition from nearby areas such as Houthavens.
20%
Hoofddorp
Overamstel
Noord
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net €/m2 per year
30%
25%
Vacancy rate
Due to high2vacancy rates, further withdrawals in the
9
following markets are expected:
* Zuidoost will resurge as an attractive 'value-formoney' office location.
* Further transformation of unlettable office space will
occur in Sloterdijk.
* The net take-up rate of Schiphol-Rijk in 2014
indicates a sign of recovery in the necessitous area.
will occur in Amstelveen, as a large
* Transformation
2
proportion
9 of the current supply lacks potential.
* Of all areas, the Westas showed the highest vacancy
rate. Withdrawals are foreseen.
* Oud-west has great potential for the residence
market. Therefore further withdrawals are expected.
Zuidoost
20%
Sloterdijk
Schiphol-Rijk
Amstelveen
15%
Westas
Oud-west
10%
5%
0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net €/m2 per year
2
30%
25%
Vacancy rate
An adjustment of excessive rents will decrease the
9
vacancy in the following markets:
* In Zuid/Buitenveldert the high vacancy rate is the
result of excessive rents.
* Oost shows great potential due to the fact that the
larger share of the stock was recently developed. An
adjustment of the rent is foreseen in order to reduce
the vacancies.
20%
Zuid/Buitenveldert
Oost
15%
10%
2
9
5%
0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net €/m2 per year
011
Amsterdam region
Outlook
2
Zuidas
9 Zuidas will be under significant threat of an increasing
The coming years
vacancy rate, as large companies such as Stibbe, AkzoNobel and NautaDutilh
continue to leave their old offices to occupy their new office space within the
same area. In addition, the Royal Bank of Scotland announced it will scrap at
least 600 to 650 jobs, the majority of which is currently housed on Zuidas.
Furthermore, construction on the Amsterdam Zuid station and A10 highway is
foreseen to cause major inconvenience with respect to the accessibility of
Zuidas over the next ten years. Yet, it is foreseen that investors will remain
attracted to the Zuidas area due to the continued demand for high quality
office space and high net rents.
2
Centrum
9
Because of the diversity
in both building quality and location quality within
the Centrum area, it is impossible to make an unambiguous prediction for the
whole area. The Centrum area will continue to be difficult to access by car,
both in terms of travel time and lack of parking spaces, while its accessibility
by public transport offers little to no advantage relative to other areas. Large
offices, which are situated on the main avenues, such as IJDock, Prins en
Keizer and Oosterdokseiland, will maintain their competitive advantage with
respect to the canal district, where major international tenants remain absent
due to fragmented office space.
Zuidoost
Zuidoost sees the highest available stock of office space. Allthough the takeup volume in 2014 indicates signs of a market with a decreasing vacancy rate,
the number is highly distorted by the relocation of the ING bank to Zuidoost.
Yet, due to the accessibility and multifunctionality of the area and the 'value
for money' of the office space, it is expected that Zuidoost will see a reduced
vacancy rate in the coming years.
Sloterdijk/Westpoort
Where Zuidoost will resurge as an attractive high-quality/low price office
location, the other major secondary office market within the Amsterdam
region is betting on a large-scale transformation of its unlettable office space.
Sloterdijk/Westpoort will transform from a rather unattractive office location
to a more mixed and multifunctional area. The location and accessibility of
Sloterdijk/Westpoort lends itself to include residential (mainly student
housing) and hotel development. In line with previous years, investors will
continue to purchase fully vacant office buildings at a very sharp price per
square meter to (1) put them up for transformation and (2) put them on the
market with highly competitive rental prices.
Oud-zuid
The diversity in Oud-Zuid is similar to the diversity in Centrum. While areas
within Oud-Zuid show the highest net rent in the Netherlands, the large-scale
offices close to Zuidas are of poorer quality. The unexpected high vacancy
rate that is observed is mainly concentrated in large and obsolete offices close
to the highway. It is expected that the vacancy rate in these office buildings
will decrease in the coming years, mainly due to their competitive price
relative to adjacent offices in Zuidas.
2
Amstel station 9
9 in the vicinity of the Amstel station can be defined as a real
The office location
core market. With excellent accessibility by both car and public transit and highquality office space with a landmark feature, the vacancy rate tends to be lower
than in Zuidas area. It is expected that redevelopment of the current stock will
play a key role over the coming years in order to maintain the strong position of
the area.
2
9
9
Hoofddorp
The office market in Hoofddorp is one of the larger secondary office
markets in the Netherlands, in close proximity to Amsterdam Airport
2
Schiphol. The market in Hoofddorp will remain twofold; there is a huge
9
amount of relatively old office space with low net rents and high vacancy
rates, while in recent years high quality and sustainable office buildings
have been added to the stock. As international companies (Bluewater,
TNT, Fluor) continue to elect Hoofddorp as the location for their new
headquarters, core investors
2 will continue to acquire these high quality
pre-let developments. Investors
will continue to purchase relatively poor
9
office space, mostly as portfolio deals, for a sharp price per m², to
2
relaunch it for highly competitive
rental prices. In addition, transformation
of office space is expected in areas adjacent to residential areas.
Schiphol
The office market of Schiphol will remain a prime office location within the
2
Netherlands. Expansion of the current stock seems to be restricted by land
supply as well as height. Therefore supply level is low and under pressure,
2
causing low vacancy rates and high rents.
9
2
Schiphol-Rijk
9
In contrast to the office market
in Schiphol, the office market in Schipholrijk has been poor for years. The vacancy rate in Schiphol-rijk is among the
highest in Amsterdam region, while the net rent is among the lowest. The
development of Schiphol-Rijk is the result of planning optimism at the end
of the previous century, when there was great demand for office space.
Within this area, office use is the only potential use for the buildings.
Therefore, there is only limited scope for transformation within SchipholRijk. The rather non-diversified stock suffers from the competition of
similar supply in Hoofddorp.
2 Yet, the net take-up volume in 2014 indicates
a sign of recovery, due to9the expansion of UPC (3.500 m²).
2
Amstelveen
The office market in Amstelveen has to deal with a high vacancy rate. The
stock is composed of relatively large office buildings, of which most are
relatively poor. Yet, the positioning of Amstelveen between Amsterdam
Airport Schiphol and Zuidas
and its accessibility are excellent for business.
2
Large international companies such as Atos and Nestle have chosen
9
Amstelveen in previous years for its 'value for money'. A large proportion
of the current supply has 2little potential to ever be used as an office again.
Therefore it is expected that the obsolete office space in relatively well-off
locations will be upgraded and relaunched in the market. Obsolete offices
in relatively poor locations will be transformed into housing or hotel.
Examples of the latter is the recently purchased office building
'Bavinckstaete' by the Van der Valk Hotel Group.
Riekerpolder
The office market in Riekerpolder is considered to be the most healthy
office market in the value-add category. Its vacancy is low and the net
rents are above average. In addition, Riekerpolder is easily accessed by car
due to its proximity to both the A4 and the A10 highway. Yet, there was
no significant take-up in the area in 2014.
Houthavens
2
After a long history of industrial activity, Houthavens is one of the last
9
areas within the highway-ring undergoing major area development. With
the headquarters of Calvin Klein, Hugo Boss, Diesel and Gaastra,
Houthavens is becoming an important cluster for the retail sector.
Furthermore, it has proven to be highly attractive to the creative industry
including media and advertisement companies. The coming years,
Houthavens will be expanded to a succesful multifunctional area. It is
expected that the vacancy rate will remain low, due to its attractive
location near the IJ river and its proximity to Centrum.
2
9
012
Amsterdam region
Outlook
Overamstel
2
The vacancy rate of the Overamstel area is just below average and the net
rent level is just above average. The coming years, Overamstel will transform
from a traditional and average office location to a multifunctional area, by
means of both large-scale residential developments and high-quality office
space with a landmark feature. Examples are the recently completed
headquarter of G-Star Raw.
2
Zuid/Buitenveldert
9 has good accessibility and borders the Zuidas area on the
Zuid/Buitenveldert
east and the south side. Therefore the net rental level is above average. Yet,
the area has a high vacancy rate. The vacancy rate is mainly the result of
2
relatively poor and old-fashioned office space. It is expected that both
redevelopment of its large-scale offices and transformation into hotels and
residential properties will play a key-role in the coming years.
Noord
The recently developed offices in Noord remain concentrated around the
NSDM-Werf, an attractive and trendy multifunctional area with a small
number of large-scale office buildings, containing strong landmark features,
on the shore of the IJ estuary. Noord, and in particular the NDSM-Werf, has
competition from nearby developments in Houthavens with similar stock and
demand from similar sectors (creative industrial firms and large retailers). In
the coming years, Noord will be exposed to many residential developments,
but the development of office space will be limited due to the mediocre
accessibility both by car and by public transport.
Oost
The vacancy rate in Oost is among the highest within the Amsterdam region.
Its vacancy rate is mainly concentrated in the area of the Eastern Docklands.
Yet the vacancy rate is in decline, due to a high net take-up rate in 2014. In
the coming years, the industrial areas in adjacent of the Eastern Docklands
(Cruquiusweg) will be further developed, primarly into a residential area. In
addition, it is foreseen that the relatively poor office buildings in the Eastern
area will be transformed for residential use.
Westas
Of all areas, Westas has the highest vacancy rate. Relatively poor and vacant
office buildings are overrepresented in the area. Yet, the area has potential
due to its good accessibility by both car and public transport. In the coming
years, investors will continue to withdraw office space against a very sharp
price per square meter for transformation.
Oud-west
In the relatively small office market in Oud-west, transformation of poor and
obsolete offices for other uses will continue to decrease the vacancy rate in
the area. There will remain a particular demand for housing in the area.
Nieuw-West
The office market in Nieuw-West is the smallest in the Amsterdam region.
The stock is mainly owner-occupied by the municipality and is characterized
by a low vacancy rate.
Diemen
Due to the large-scale demolition of empty office space in Bergwijkpark, and
the transformation of Holland Park to Campus Diemen Zuid, approximately
150,000 m² of vacant office space has been withdrawn.Therefore the vacancy
rate of Diemen is among the lowest within the Amsterdam region.
Definitions
9 a number of terms to describe the office market in the
This report contains
Amsterdam region. Below we give a brief explanation of definitions to clarify
the terms used in this report.
2
Amsterdam region
2
The municipality9of Amsterdam and the neighbouring municipalities with a
9
considerable amount of office space including Amstelveen, Diemen and
Haarlemmermeer.
1
2
Current stock
The current stock9 represents the total amount of completed office space in
2
buildings mainly 6used for office purposes, regardless of the type of ownership,
2
9
including office space that is under construction or in redevelopment, as at
the survey date.
Net rental take-up
1
9
The net rental take-up
represents office space larger than 500 m² acquired
within a given year, excluding prolongation and sale and lease-back
transactions.
1
2
Current supply
Current supply is9the amount of office space that is available for rent as at the
2
6 become available within six months from the survey date.
survey date or will
Vacancy rate 9
The vacancy rate1 refers to the vacant office space (current supply) expressed
as a percentage of the current office stock.
Investment volume
2
6
The investment volume
refers to the total sum of investments in a given year.
9
This includes office purchases with the aim of achieving a return, office
purchases with the
2 aim of transforming the office for other users, and
1
purchases for own use.
1
Incentive level
2
6 refers to the minimum number and the maximum number
The incentive level
9 on a standard five-years contract.
of rent-free months
Net rent
1
The net rent refers to the gross rent per m² for a given area, adjusted for the
2
6 level for a given area.
average incentive
Investment style981
The investment style
refers to long-term performance expectation and risk
4
1
exposure. The investment
style is based on the vacancy rate for a given area
and the net rent2level for a given area, derived from the national average.
1
1 core
Investment style:
Core markets are defined as primary stable markets with high net rents and
low vancacy rates.
Investment style: value-add
Value-add markets are defined as secondary markets with the opportunity to
increase investment value. They tend to have average net rents or average
vacancy rates. 1
31
5 opportunistic
Investment style:
Opportunistic markets are defined as secondary markets with a low net rent
and a high vacancy rate.
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