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Coping With City Shrinkage:
A Critical Review of Housing Market and
Urban Development Policies
in the City of Erfurt (Germany) 2001 – 2011
Dr Simone Allin
School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment
Property Management and Development Group
Eisenhüttenstadt/Stalinstadt 2010
02 August 2017
Source: http://www.welt.de/kultur/article9231174/EisenhuettenstadtStalinstadt-Eisenhuettenstadt.html (24/03/2011).
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Background
• Research is based on previous findings of Master Thesis,
completed in 2001 (University of Kaiserslautern, Germany)
• Today’s presentation refers to initial results of on-going
review of urban development policies and housing market
strategies in the City of Erfurt over the past 10 years
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Overview
1. Introduction: Urban development trends in Germany
before/after 1990
2. Focus: Housing market in Eastern Germany after 1990
3. Case study: Housing market in the City of Erfurt,
Thuringia
4. Review of Erfurt’s housing market strategies and urban
development policies between 2001 – 2011
5. Conclusions and outlook
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Population in Germany – 1990
Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).
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Population in Germany – 2000
Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).
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Population in Germany – 2010
Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).
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Population in Germany – 2060
Source: http://www.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/ (23/03/2011).
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‘We are shrinking and getting older.’
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Economic transformation/recession
Industry/
Production
Finance
Unemployed persons
Services
GDP (= BIP)
Retail
Source: http://www.destatis.de/ (28/03/2011).
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Share of Brownfield
Sites across Germany
Source:
http://www.bbsr.bund.de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/IzR/2010/1/GrafikenKarten.html
(28/03/2011).
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Urban development implications: Leipzig
Source: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/nn_23470/BBSR/DE/Veroeffentlichungen/IzR/2010/1/GrafikenKarten.html
(28/03/2011).
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Urban development implications: Leipzig
Source: http://www.uni-leipzig.de/isb/squ/index.php?main=2 (24/03/2011).
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The extreme case of the housing market in
Eastern Germany after 1990
 Approx. 776,000
new dwellings built
between 1991 - 1999
Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).
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The extreme case of the housing market in
Eastern Germany after 1990
-746,000
Migration between
1980 – 1999
Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).
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The extreme case of the housing market in
Eastern Germany after 1990
Vacant dwellings according to Microcensus 1998:
→ 729,000 dwellings = 13.2% of whole stock
Source: http://www.empirica-institut.de/kufa/kom-lang.pdf (28/03/2011).
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Case study: Erfurt, Thuringia
Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 25.
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Erfurt’s housing market – present stock
(2006)
Source: City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban Development Concept, 2008, p. 46.
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Erfurt’s overall settlement structure
Source:
City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban
Development Concept, 2008, p. 47.
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Erfurt 2020 – Urban development ‘Leitbild’
Source:
City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban
Development Concept, 2008, p. 117.
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Erfurt 2020 – Diversified intervention
framework
Example of a refurbished large housing estate
Source:
City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban
Development Concept, 2008, p. 125 & 127.
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Erfurt 2020 – Allocated funding &
interventions
Source:
City of Erfurt: Integrated Urban
Development Concept, 2008, p. 133.
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Review of Erfurt’s policy framework between
2001 – 2011: some initial reflections
• Situation 2001: Draft local land use plan (FNP); no ISEK;
Masterplan I; INNOVA (i.e. private consultancy) survey reports
on housing market related issues only
• Situation 2011: Adopted local land use plan; ISEK 2020;
revised Masterplan II; urban development monitoring system
 disintegrated policy situation in 2001; also reflected by
fragmented institutional responsibilities
 improved integration of relevant policies and institutions
through collaborative work on comprehensive informal and
formal urban development policies (i.e. FNP & ISEK) and
housing market specific Masterplan II
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Critical review of measures undertaken
before 2005 & their implications
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Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 44.
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Critical review of measures undertaken before 2005 &
their implications
• Masterplan I (city council & 4 large housing societies):
- focus on demolition of large-scale GDR industrial housing
stock (especially, estates built after 1970s’ and in suburban
areas),
- although also high vacancy rates in historical city centre >
reason: in the longer-term, development of inner-city
locations is regarded more sustainable
 But: What happens to vacant sites? Any interim or longerterm solutions? What are the wider implications of
demolished infrastructure? How can diverse private
owners of historical housing stock in city-centre be
persuaded to refurbish their properties?
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Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed
after 2005 & their implications
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Source: BMVBS: 2. Statusbericht – 5 Jahre Stadtumbau Ost – eine Zwischenbilanz, 2007, p. 42; BMVBS: 4.
Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 53, 83.
Critical review of measures undertaken/proposed after
2005 & their (potential) implications
• Masterplan II:
- summary re demolition: 7,555 dwellings in total until 2009;
vacancy rate dropped from 15.1% (2002) to 4.6% (GDR
industrial housing stock only) > now classified as ‘stable
conditions’
- successful integration in comprehensive urban development
strategy: long-term planning & development objectives
(> 2020): reasonable mix of flexibility & clear constraints
- revised focus on consolidation of selected areas & parts of
the City’s housing stock, based on urban ‘Leitbild’
 But: How will Erfurt cope with projected 2. wave of shrinkage
and need for extensive refurbishment from 2016 onwards?
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Some initial conclusions
•
Obvious policy shift between 2001 – 2011: from demolition
to careful development/refurbishment > sustaining
•
Comprehensive urban development/land use policy
framework has become primary source of consultation &
must now provide base for future integration
•
Thus, for example, all housing market (monitoring &
development) strategies – incl. allocation requirements of
state funding etc. – must be embedded in this framework
•
Present and most significant shortcoming: missing (city-)
regional perspective on urban development, housing
market and related policy-making: inter-city cooperation
often hampered by negative perceptions and competition…
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Focus of future research
•
Qualitative part:
Further in-depth investigation & evaluation of
effectiveness and integrative capacity of urban
development and housing market policies in Erfurt
•
Quantitative part:
Collection, analysis and modelling of available
demographic and housing market data in order to
evaluate the performance of specific market segments,
related targets and measures > could be used as a
‘tool’ for informing future policy-making
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Thank you!
[email protected]
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Source: BMVBS: 4. Statusbericht – Stadtumbau vor neuen Herausforderungen, 2010, p. 94.