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Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Matthew Douglas Johnston University of Waterloo Fall 2010 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 2 Stochastic Models Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 2 Stochastic Models Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation 3 Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 2 Stochastic Models Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation 3 Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O Species/Reactants Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O Reactant Complex/ Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O Product Complex/ Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O Reaction Constant/ Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Chemical kinetics is the study of the rates/dynamics resulting from systems of such reactions. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Chemical kinetics is the study of the rates/dynamics resulting from systems of such reactions. To build a mathematical model, we need to make physical assumptions. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Chemical kinetics is the study of the rates/dynamics resulting from systems of such reactions. To build a mathematical model, we need to make physical assumptions, e.g. Uniform distribution (well-mixed); Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Chemical kinetics is the study of the rates/dynamics resulting from systems of such reactions. To build a mathematical model, we need to make physical assumptions, e.g. Uniform distribution (well-mixed); Temperature and volume are constant; Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes An elementary reaction consists of a set of reactants which turn into a set of products, e.g. k 2H2 + O2 −→ 2H2 O / Chemical kinetics is the study of the rates/dynamics resulting from systems of such reactions. To build a mathematical model, we need to make physical assumptions, e.g. Uniform distribution (well-mixed); Temperature and volume are constant; Law of mass action applies. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes If many reactant molecules are involved (e.g. chemical reactor), we consider the reactant concentrations. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes If many reactant molecules are involved (e.g. chemical reactor), we consider the reactant concentrations. We will keep track of xi ≈ # of molecules of i th species ni = . V Volume Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes If many reactant molecules are involved (e.g. chemical reactor), we consider the reactant concentrations. We will keep track of xi ≈ # of molecules of i th species ni = . V Volume The concentrations are approximately continuous with respect to each occurrence of a reaction. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes If many reactant molecules are involved (e.g. chemical reactor), we consider the reactant concentrations. We will keep track of xi ≈ # of molecules of i th species ni = . V Volume The concentrations are approximately continuous with respect to each occurrence of a reaction. The reaction constant k represents the average occurrence rate of the reaction per time. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . This system is governed by the system of autonomous, polynomial, ordinary differential equations ẋ = r X ki (z0i − zi )xzi . i =1 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (1) Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . This system is governed by the system of autonomous, polynomial, ordinary differential equations ẋ = r X ki (z0i − zi )xzi . i =1 We have the following important components: we sum over r reactions, Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (1) Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . This system is governed by the system of autonomous, polynomial, ordinary differential equations ẋ = r X ki (z0i − zi )xzi . i =1 We have the following important components: we sum over r reactions, ki is the reaction rate, Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (1) Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . This system is governed by the system of autonomous, polynomial, ordinary differential equations ẋ = r X ki (z0i − zi )xzi . i =1 We have the following important components: we sum over r reactions, ki is the reaction rate, (z0i − zi ) is the reaction vector, Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (1) Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the general system k i Ci −→ Ci0 , i = 1, . . . , r . This system is governed by the system of autonomous, polynomial, ordinary differential equations ẋ = r X ki (z0i − zi )xzi . i =1 We have the following important components: we sum over r reactions, ki is the reaction rate, (z0i − zi ) is the reaction vector, and Q zij is the mass-action term. xzi = m j=1 (xj ) Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks (1) Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 This has the governing dynamics x˙1 −1 1 = k1 x1 + k2 x22 , x˙2 2 −2 where x1 and x2 are the concentrations of A1 and A2 respectively. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 This has the governing dynamics −1 x˙1 1 x1 + k2 = k1 x22 , 2 x˙2 −2 where x1 and x2 are the concentrations of A1 and A2 respectively. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 This has the governing dynamics 1 −1 x˙1 x1 + k2 x22 , = k1 −2 2 x˙2 where x1 and x2 are the concentrations of A1 and A2 respectively. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 This has the governing dynamics 1 x˙1 −1 x1 + k2 x22 , = k1 −2 x˙2 2 where x1 and x2 are the concentrations of A1 and A2 respectively. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes Consider the (reversible) system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 This has the governing dynamics x˙1 −1 1 x22 , = k1 x1 + k2 x˙2 2 −2 where x1 and x2 are the concentrations of A1 and A2 respectively. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes What kind of properties does this system have? −1 x˙1 1 = k1 x1 + k2 x22 x˙2 2 −2 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes What kind of properties does this system have? 0 −1 x˙1 1 2 = = k1 x1 + k2 x2 0 x˙2 2 −2 The (positive) equilibrium set is given by ( r E= x∈ R2>0 Matthew Douglas Johnston | x2 = k1 x1 k2 ) . Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes What kind of properties does this system have? −1 1 x˙1 x1 + k2 x22 = k1 2 −2 x˙2 The (positive) equilibrium set is given by ( r E= x∈ R2>0 | x2 = k1 x1 k2 ) . For any k1 , k2 , x1 , x2 we have f(x) ∈ S where 1 S = span . −2 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes (x0+S) E x2 x1 Figure: Previous system with k1 = k2 = 1. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes (x0+S) E x2 x1 Figure: Previous system with k1 = k2 = 1. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes (x0+S) E x2 x1 Figure: Previous system with k1 = k2 = 1. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes (x0+S) E x2 x1 Figure: Previous system with k1 = k2 = 1. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes The restriction of solutions is a general property. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes The restriction of solutions is a general property. Definition The stoichiometric subspace S ⊂ Rm is given by S = span z0i − zi | i = 1, . . . , r . Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes The restriction of solutions is a general property. Definition The stoichiometric subspace S ⊂ Rm is given by S = span z0i − zi | i = 1, . . . , r . Theorem Solutions x(t) of (1) are restricted to stoichiometric compatibility classes such that x(t) ∈ (S + x0 ) ∩ Rm + Matthew Douglas Johnston ∀t ≥ 0. Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 2 Stochastic Models Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation 3 Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation What about cases where the number of reactant molecules ni is small (e.g. biological cells)? Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation What about cases where the number of reactant molecules ni is small (e.g. biological cells)? A few considerations: Differences between states is large - i.e. continuity of concentrations breaks down. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation What about cases where the number of reactant molecules ni is small (e.g. biological cells)? A few considerations: Differences between states is large - i.e. continuity of concentrations breaks down. Each occurrence of a reaction matters - i.e. we cannot average into a lump parameter ki . Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation What about cases where the number of reactant molecules ni is small (e.g. biological cells)? A few considerations: Differences between states is large - i.e. continuity of concentrations breaks down. Each occurrence of a reaction matters - i.e. we cannot average into a lump parameter ki . We cannot tell when reactions will occur - i.e. the model is stochastic/probabilistic instead of deterministic. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation There are two general approaches to analyzing purely stochastic chemical kinetics systems: Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation There are two general approaches to analyzing purely stochastic chemical kinetics systems: 1 Evaluating sample trajectories/realizations. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation There are two general approaches to analyzing purely stochastic chemical kinetics systems: 1 Evaluating sample trajectories/realizations. 2 Analyzing the chemical master equation (models the probability distribution over the admissible states as a function of time). Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation There are two general approaches to analyzing purely stochastic chemical kinetics systems: 1 Evaluating sample trajectories/realizations. 2 Analyzing the chemical master equation (models the probability distribution over the admissible states as a function of time). Evaluating sample trajectories is simple to do numerically but not particularly insightful. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation There are two general approaches to analyzing purely stochastic chemical kinetics systems: 1 Evaluating sample trajectories/realizations. 2 Analyzing the chemical master equation (models the probability distribution over the admissible states as a function of time). Evaluating sample trajectories is simple to do numerically but not particularly insightful. Solving the chemical master equation is typically several orders of magnitude beyond impossible. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: 1 Initialize reactant numbers ni (0). Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: 1 Initialize reactant numbers ni (0). 2 Determine time τ until next reaction. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: 1 Initialize reactant numbers ni (0). 2 Determine time τ until next reaction. 3 Determine next reaction. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: 1 Initialize reactant numbers ni (0). 2 Determine time τ until next reaction. 3 Determine next reaction. 4 Step forward τ , update system and return to step 2. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation An algorithm for evaluating sample trajectories was developed by Doob (1945) and Gillespie (1977) [1]: 1 Initialize reactant numbers ni (0). 2 Determine time τ until next reaction. 3 Determine next reaction. 4 Step forward τ , update system and return to step 2. Typically carried out for a finite number of iterations or for a fixed amount of time. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Consider the Michaelis-Menton enzyme reaction k1+ k S + E SE →2 P + E k1− Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Consider the Michaelis-Menton enzyme reaction k1+ k S + E SE →2 P + E k1− Models the conversion of some substrate S into some product P via the enzyme E . Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Consider the Michaelis-Menton enzyme reaction k1+ k S + E SE →2 P + E k1− Models the conversion of some substrate S into some product P via the enzyme E . The deterministic model is a limiting case for ni → ∞ keeping ni /V constant. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Figure: Comparison of deterministic and stochastic Michaelis-Menton enzyme mechanism. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Figure: Comparison of deterministic and stochastic Michaelis-Menton enzyme mechanism. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Figure: Comparison of deterministic and stochastic Michaelis-Menton enzyme mechanism. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Figure: Comparison of deterministic and stochastic Michaelis-Menton enzyme mechanism. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. We are typically interested in questions such as: Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. We are typically interested in questions such as: 1 What is the probability that Xi = ni , Xi ≥ ni , etc., at time t? Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. We are typically interested in questions such as: 1 What is the probability that Xi = ni , Xi ≥ ni , etc., at time t? 2 Does the system have steady states? Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. We are typically interested in questions such as: 1 What is the probability that Xi = ni , Xi ≥ ni , etc., at time t? 2 Does the system have steady states? If we sample enough trajectories we can build curves of best fit and confidence intervals but we will still miss many details. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Evaluating sample trajectories is illustrative but not particularly enlightening. We are typically interested in questions such as: 1 What is the probability that Xi = ni , Xi ≥ ni , etc., at time t? 2 Does the system have steady states? If we sample enough trajectories we can build curves of best fit and confidence intervals but we will still miss many details. We can do better - in fact, we can model the evolution of these probabilities explicitly! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation We will let P(n; t) = P(X1 = n1 , . . . , Xm = nm ; t) and λi (n) = ki V |zi |−1 m Y j=1 nj ! (nj − zij )! denote the transition probability from one state to another. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation We will let P(n; t) = P(X1 = n1 , . . . , Xm = nm ; t) and λi (n) = ki V |zi |−1 m Y j=1 nj ! (nj − zij )! denote the transition probability from one state to another. The chemical master equation is given by X X dP(n; t) = λi (n + zi − z0i )P(n + zi − z0i ; t) − P(n; t) λi (n) dt i ∈I Matthew Douglas Johnston i ∈O Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation We will let P(n; t) = P(X1 = n1 , . . . , Xm = nm ; t) and λi (n) = ki V |zi |−1 m Y j=1 nj ! (nj − zij )! denote the transition probability from one state to another. The chemical master equation is given by X X dP(n; t) λi (n + zi − z0i )P(n + zi − z0i ; t) − P(n; t) = λi (n) dt i ∈I i ∈O where I are the reactions which lead into a given state... Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation We will let P(n; t) = P(X1 = n1 , . . . , Xm = nm ; t) and λi (n) = ki V |zi |−1 m Y j=1 nj ! (nj − zij )! denote the transition probability from one state to another. The chemical master equation is given by X X dP(n; t) = λi (n + zi − z0i )P(n + zi − z0i ; t) − P(n; t) λi (n) dt i ∈I i ∈O where I are the reactions which lead into a given state and O are the reactions which lead from a given state. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Reconsider the earlier system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Reconsider the earlier system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 Consider the states (2, 0), (1, 2), and (0, 4)... Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Reconsider the earlier system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 Consider the states (2, 0), (1, 2), and (0, 4), for which we have dP(2, 0; t) 2k2 = P(1, 2; t) − 2k1 P(2, 0; t) dt V dP(1, 2; t) 12k2 2k2 = P(0, 4; t) + 2k1 P(2, 0; t) − k1 + P(1, 2; t) dt V V 12k2 dP(0, 4; t) = k1 P(1, 2; t) − P(0, 4; t). dt V Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Reconsider the earlier system k1 A1 2A2 . k2 Consider the states (2, 0), (1, 2), and (0, 4), for which we have dP(2, 0; t) 2k2 = P(1, 2; t) − 2k1 P(2, 0; t) dt V dP(1, 2; t) 12k2 2k2 = P(0, 4; t) + 2k1 P(2, 0; t) − k1 + P(1, 2; t) dt V V 12k2 dP(0, 4; t) = k1 P(1, 2; t) − P(0, 4; t). dt V This can be solved explicitly! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! 2 If it can be solved, it completely describes every aspect of the mechanism. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! 2 If it can be solved, it completely describes every aspect of the mechanism. Less-than-nice features about the CME: Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! 2 If it can be solved, it completely describes every aspect of the mechanism. Less-than-nice features about the CME: 1 It is typically massive (for unbounded systems, it is infinite-dimensional). Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! 2 If it can be solved, it completely describes every aspect of the mechanism. Less-than-nice features about the CME: 1 It is typically massive (for unbounded systems, it is infinite-dimensional). 2 Mass-action term must be computed for each state. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation Nice features about the CME: 1 It is linear! 2 If it can be solved, it completely describes every aspect of the mechanism. Less-than-nice features about the CME: 1 It is typically massive (for unbounded systems, it is infinite-dimensional). 2 Mass-action term must be computed for each state. 3 Connections between states can be complicated near the boundary. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block 1 Background Chemical Reactions Standard Model Stoichiometric Compatibility Classes 2 Stochastic Models Small-Scale Considerations Gillespie Algorithm Chemical Master Equation 3 Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Modelling chemical kinetics systems stochastically can qualitatively change the dynamics of a system. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Modelling chemical kinetics systems stochastically can qualitatively change the dynamics of a system. Consider the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system (A1 is the prey, A2 is the predator) k 1 A1 −→ 2A1 k 2 A1 + A2 −→ 2A2 k 3 A2 −→ O. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Modelling chemical kinetics systems stochastically can qualitatively change the dynamics of a system. Consider the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system (A1 is the prey, A2 is the predator) k 1 A1 −→ 2A1 k 2 A1 + A2 −→ 2A2 k 3 A2 −→ O. For the rate constant values k1 = k2 = k3 = 1 the large-scale deterministic system has a unique positive equilibrium x1∗ = x2∗ = 1 which is a centre, however... Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Matthew Douglas Johnston Lotka-Volterra System The Block Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block The stable equilibrium concentration is no longer stable! (In fact, none of the stable periodic orbits are stable.) Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block The stable equilibrium concentration is no longer stable! (In fact, none of the stable periodic orbits are stable.) Oscillatory behaviour remains but appears almost chaotic. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block The stable equilibrium concentration is no longer stable! (In fact, none of the stable periodic orbits are stable.) Oscillatory behaviour remains but appears almost chaotic. Furthermore, extinction events which were not possible in the continuous, deterministic system are now possible. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block The stable equilibrium concentration is no longer stable! (In fact, none of the stable periodic orbits are stable.) Oscillatory behaviour remains but appears almost chaotic. Furthermore, extinction events which were not possible in the continuous, deterministic system are now possible. Although it is unlikely for either the predator or the prey to go extinct, it is irreversible — carried over a long enough time scale, extinction is the inevitable outcome of the system! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Horn and Jackson consider the following system in their seminal paper “General Mass Action Kinetics” [2]: 1 2A1 + A2 −→ ↑ 3A2 3A1 ↓ 1 ←− A1 + 2A2 . Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Horn and Jackson consider the following system in their seminal paper “General Mass Action Kinetics” [2]: 1 2A1 + A2 −→ ↑ 3A2 3A1 ↓ 1 ←− A1 + 2A2 . The system exhibits varying behaviour depending on the value of : Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Horn and Jackson consider the following system in their seminal paper “General Mass Action Kinetics” [2]: 1 2A1 + A2 −→ ↑ 3A2 3A1 ↓ 1 ←− A1 + 2A2 . The system exhibits varying behaviour depending on the value of : 1 ≥ 1/6: one stable equilibrium. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Horn and Jackson consider the following system in their seminal paper “General Mass Action Kinetics” [2]: 1 2A1 + A2 −→ ↑ 3A2 3A1 ↓ 1 ←− A1 + 2A2 . The system exhibits varying behaviour depending on the value of : 1 ≥ 1/6: one stable equilibrium. 2 0 < < 1/6: two stable and one unstable equilibria. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Horn and Jackson consider the following system in their seminal paper “General Mass Action Kinetics” [2]: 1 2A1 + A2 −→ ↑ 3A2 3A1 ↓ 1 ←− A1 + 2A2 . The system exhibits varying behaviour depending on the value of : 1 ≥ 1/6: one stable equilibrium. 2 0 < < 1/6: two stable and one unstable equilibria. 3 = 0: two stable boundary equilibria. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems (a) Lotka-Volterra System The Block (b) (c) Figure: Block system with (a) ≥ 1/6, (b) 0 < < 1/6, and (c) = 0. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Let’s restrict our attention to the case 0 < < 1/6. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Let’s restrict our attention to the case 0 < < 1/6. For the deterministic system, each compatibility class is divided into two regions by the unstable equilibrium. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Let’s restrict our attention to the case 0 < < 1/6. For the deterministic system, each compatibility class is divided into two regions by the unstable equilibrium. Trajectories originating on one side or the other collapse to their respective stability equilibrium concentrations. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Let’s restrict our attention to the case 0 < < 1/6. For the deterministic system, each compatibility class is divided into two regions by the unstable equilibrium. Trajectories originating on one side or the other collapse to their respective stability equilibrium concentrations. What would happen if we modelled the system stochastically? Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Let’s restrict our attention to the case 0 < < 1/6. For the deterministic system, each compatibility class is divided into two regions by the unstable equilibrium. Trajectories originating on one side or the other collapse to their respective stability equilibrium concentrations. What would happen if we modelled the system stochastically? Trajectories can jump from one side to the other! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Figure: Block system with = 0.12. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block Thanks for coming out! Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks Background Stochastic Models Interesting Systems Lotka-Volterra System The Block D. Gillespie. Exact Stochastic Simulation of Coupled Chemical Reactions. The Journal of Physical Chemistry, 81(25):2340-2361, 1977. F. Horn and R. Jackson. General mass action kinetics. Archive for Rational Mechanics and Analysis, 47:187-194, 1972. D. Wilkinson. Stochastic Modelling for Systems Biology. Chapman & Hall, 2006. Matthew Douglas Johnston Stochastic Chemical Reaction Networks