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Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Republic of Belarus RUE «BRC «Ecology» SIXTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE COMMITMENTS UNDER UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Minsk 2015 The Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus has been prepared with the assistance of: Director of SRC “Ecology” – Valery Kliuchanovitch Coordinator of the GEF project №TF015501 – Ivan Narkevitch Consultants of the GEF project №TF015501: Olga Vavilonskaya, Evgenia Bertosh, Andrey Burlo, Maciej Wisniewski, Maria Germenchuk, Kristina Gonchar, Anton Kuralenia, Elena Laevskaya, Vladimir Loginov, Dzmitry Melekh, Viktar Melnik, Hanna Ratnikava, Ialanta Ramanovich, Dennis Rudov, Ivan Filiutsich Experts in the sphere of climate change: Irina Voitehovitch, Alexander Grebenkov, Sergey Nikitin Head of the Aarhus Centre of the Republic of Belarus – Olga Zakharova 2 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................6 2 NATIONAL CICUMSTANCES THAT RELATE TO GHG EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS ................................................................................................................................. 22 2.1 Geographical Location of the Republic of Belarus .............................................................. 22 2.2 Government and Legislation of the Republic of Belarus ..................................................... 23 2.3 Natural conditions ................................................................................................................ 23 2.4 Overview of climate change in the Republic of Belarus for the period 2000-2013............. 24 2.5 Water Resources ................................................................................................................... 32 2.6 Soils and Land Resources .................................................................................................... 35 2.7 Biological Resources ............................................................................................................ 38 2.8 Population............................................................................................................................. 44 2.9 Economy............................................................................................................................... 47 2.10 Energy ................................................................................................................................ 48 2.11 Transport ............................................................................................................................ 51 2.12 Industry............................................................................................................................... 51 2.13 Agriculture and Forestry .................................................................................................... 52 2.14 Waste .................................................................................................................................. 55 3 INFORMATION ON GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS, INCLUDING INFORMATION ON NATIONAL SYSTEM AND NATIONAL REGISTRY OF CARBON UNITS ...............................................................................................57 3.1 General information on GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus .............................57 3.1.1 GHG emissions trends by gases .................................................................................. 58 3.1.2 Tends of GHG emissions/removals by source categories ........................................... 64 3.2 National GHG Inventory System ....................................................................................70 3.3 Information on National Registry of Carbon Units ........................................................ 73 4 POLICIES AND MEASURES ...............................................................................................75 4.1 The legal basis of the development and implementation of national policies and measures, monitoring of their implementation .......................................................................... 75 4.2 The main measures adopted by the Republic of Belarus in the field of climate change 77 4.3 Review of policies and measures, the effect of which covers several sectors of the economy ..................................................................................................................................... 81 4.4 Policies and measures undertaken by the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sectors (summary table) ............................................................................................................. 86 4.5 Analysis of the implementation of policies and measures represented in the Fifth National Communication ...........................................................................................................94 4.6 Policies and measures taken by the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sector 100 4.6.1 Energy ....................................................................................................................... 100 4.6.2 Industry...................................................................................................................... 117 4.6.3 Transport ................................................................................................................... 119 4.6.3.1 Road transport ........................................................................................................... 119 4.6.3.2 Railway transport ..................................................................................................... 120 4.6.4 Agriculture ................................................................................................................ 121 4.6.5 Land use, land use change and forestry..................................................................... 121 4.6.6 Waste ......................................................................................................................... 123 4.7 Monitoring the implementation of National Programs .................................................124 4.8 Recommendations to improve the legislation of Belarus, regulating the formation of policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions and removals ..............................................124 4.8.1 Studying the feasibility of internal emissions trading system in the Republic of Belarus 125 5 PROJECTIONS AND TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES .............127 3 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus 5.1 Projections of GHG emissions .......................................................................................... 127 5.1.1 Projection of GHG emission in fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Belarus 127 5.1.1.1 Energy Industry ........................................................................................................ 127 5.1.1.2 Sector “Manufacture Industry and Construction” ................................................. 129 5.1.1.3 Transport sector........................................................................................................ 134 5.1.1.4 Agriculture sector ..................................................................................................... 135 5.1.1.5 Commercial sector .................................................................................................... 138 5.1.1.6 Other sectors ............................................................................................................. 138 5.1.2 Projection of GHG emission in “Industrial Processes” sector .............................. 140 5.1.3 Projection of GHG emissions in the “Solvents and Other Products Use” sector .. 140 5.1.4 Projection of GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector ......................................... 141 5.1.5 Projection of GHG emissions and Removals in the LULUCF sector .................... 141 5.1.6 Projection of GHG emissions in Waste sector ........................................................ 141 5.2 Aggregate effect of policies and measures .................................................................. 144 5.3 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 149 5.3.1 Projection of electricity demand .............................................................................. 150 5.3.2 Projection of heat demand ....................................................................................... 150 5.3.3 Projection of public fuel consumption demand ...................................................... 150 5.3.4 Projection of cargo and passengers transportation demand .................................. 151 6 Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures .. 154 6.1 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures in Agriculture ......................... 156 6.1.1 Climate Change Impact on Agriculture .................................................................. 156 6.1.2 Adaptation Measures in Agricultural Sector .......................................................... 159 6.2 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector...................161 6.2.1 Climate Change Impact on Forestry and Biodiversity............................................ 161 6.2.2 Adaptation Measures in Forestry ............................................................................ 163 6.3 Assessment of Vulnerability of Water Resources and Identification of Adaptation Options ..................................................................................................................................... 166 6.3.1 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources ......................................................... 166 6.3.2 Adaptation Measures in Water Sector ..................................................................... 169 6.4 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Human Health ........................................170 7 FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGIES TRANSFER, INCLUDING INFORMATION ACCORDING TO ARTICLES 10 AND 11 OF KYOTO PROTOCOL ..................................................................................................................................................... 174 8 RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION ............................................................ 176 8.1 General Policy on Research and Systematic Observation of Climate Change and Funding .................................................................................................................................................. 176 8.1.1 National Policy in regard to research and systematic observation ............................ 176 8.1.2 International Cooperation................................................................................................ 178 8.2 Research ............................................................................................................................. 188 8.2.1 Research in Climate Change ........................................................................................... 188 8.2.2 Forecasting and modeling of climate change in the Republic of Belarus ....................... 195 8.2.3 Projections (scenarios) of climate change in the XXI century in Belarus ...................... 196 8.3 Systematic observation....................................................................................................... 202 8.3.1 Climate Observing System in the Republic of Belarus, the national monitoring system and its connection to the Global Climate Observing System ................................................... 202 8.3.2 Organization of the regional climate change monitoring of the Republic of Belarus..... 206 9 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESSON CLIMATE CHANGE ......... 213 9.1 General Policy of Education, Trainingand Public Awareness ...................................... 213 9.2 Primary, Secondary and Higher Education...................................................................216 9.3 Campaigns of public information .................................................................................225 9.4 A list of websites related to climate issues ...................................................................228 4 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus 9.5 Training programs (personnel training) ........................................................................231 9.6 The Public and Non-Governmental Organizations Involvement.................................. 236 9.7 Participation in International Activity .......................................................................... 240 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 243 ANNEX 1 – SUMMARY TABLES ........................................................................................... 249 5 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Republic of Belarus numbering nearly 9.5 mln people is located in the Central Eastern Europe, occupies an area of 207.6 ths km2 and is categorized as an economy in transition. Short-term warmer spells in Belarus followed by cold spells similar in magnitude and duration through most of the XX century until the end of the 1980s.The warming, unprecedented in terms of its duration and intensity, began in 1989 and lasts up until now; air temperature exceeded climatological normal, on the average, by 1.2ºСover the 25-year period (19892014).The precipitation has changed insignificantly in Belarus over the warming period. Natural Resources The Republic Belarus has abundant water resources. In 2013, the Belarusian economy consumed 1,373 mlnm3of water to meet various needs, i.e. by 69 mlnm3less than in 2012. Of the total water quantity consumed, drinking needs accounted for 35% (34% in 2012), industry – 30% like in 2012, pond fish farming– 27% (28% in 2012), agricultural water supply – about 7% (8% in 2012) and irrigation – 0.4%. In 2013, the specific water consumption indicator reduced by 3.5% as against 2012 and amounted to 138 liters per capita a day which corresponds to the water consumption level in the majority of European countries (120-150 liters per capita a day). 86% of the population, including 57% of the rural population, are covered by the centralized water supply, while 74% of the population, including 30% of the rural population, are provided with centralized and local public sanitation systems. The Republic of Belarus’ land resources amount to 20,760.0 ths ha as of 01.01.2013. Of this area, 43.3%of land resources are in use of agricultural organizations, including private farms – 0.8%; 4.6% - individuals; 40.6% - state forestry organizations; 2.9% - industry, transport, communication, defense organizations and enterprises operating hydraulic engineering structures, etc.; lands used for nature protection, health improvement, recreational and historical and cultural purposes account for 4.5%; and general use lands, etc. - 3.4%.The total area of land categorized as the forests and other wooden land has most significantly increased over this period – by 954.6 ths ha. Significant quantitative and qualitative positive changes have taken place in the Belarusian forest fund over the last 20 years. These changes are due to both the economic activity of forestry organizations and natural forest growth processes. Afforestation of lowproductivity agricultural lands has helped increase the country’s forest fund by 1,373 ths ha over 6 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary this period. Therefore, assessing the land resources potential of Belarus as rather high, it is noteworthy that the changes in the land resources structure over the recent years are related to the processes of restoration of the land natural and economic potential, allocation of land plots to individuals, transfer of low-productivity agricultural lands to forestry enterprises, agricultural land use optimization, allocation of land for various construction works, etc. The area of the environment stabilizing lands (forests, natural meadow, tree and shrubbery vegetation, wetlands and lands with water bodies) accounts for over 50% of the total area of lands. The level of woodland and wetland preservation is higher in Belarus than in West European countries. The trend toward the increase of forest cover which made 39.3% as of 01.01.2014 continues. The Belarusian wetland landscapes which effectively absorb one of the greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide – (CO2) – have been acquiring an ever-increasing importance over the last decades due to the global climate warming. While absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, wetlands produce methane, thereby regulating the climate to some extent. Belarus has a substantial biodiversity potential covering both plant and animal resources. To conserve biological and landscape diversity, a modern network of specially protected natural areas (SPNA) has been established in Belarus. As of 1 January 2014, the system of specially protected natural areas included 1,213 sites (7 sites less than in 2012), including one Berezinsky Biosphere Reserve, four National Parks (Belovezhskaya Pushcha, Braslav Lakes, Pripyatsky and Narochansky), 85 Republican Wildlife Reserves, 248 Local Wildlife Reserves and also 306 and 568 Republican and Local monuments of nature respectively. Forest ecosystems account for the largest share in the SPNA structure. 7 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Population As of 1 January 2014, the population size was 9,468 ths people, an average population density - 46 people per km2 and the urban population made up 76.8%. The urban population is characterized by a high concentration. 1.9 mln people (26.8% of the urban population) reside in Minsk. Five regional centers account for 26.7% of the urban residents. 8 cities numbering from 100 thousand to 250 thousand residents account for 15.6% of the urban population. 14 towns with a population size 100.0 thousand people and more and 197 small and medium urban localities numbering less than 100.0 thousand people each are available in Belarus. In 2013, an average population age was 39.9 years, in 2012 - 39.8 years, in 2011 - 39.7 years, in 2010 – 39.6 years, in 2009 – 39.5 years and in 2008 – 39.3 years. In 2013, the number of employed was 4,545.6 ths people as against 5,151.0 ths people in 1990 and 4,443.6 ths people in 2000, i.e., the number of employed reduced by 11.8% and increased by 2.3%respectively. The employment pattern has changed. The share of the service sphere increased and the share of the industry and construction sector reduced in the employment pattern in the first half of the 1990s, while starting from the second half of the 1990s, the increase in the share of the employed in the service sphere was accompanied by stabilization of the employment level in the industry and employment reduction in the agricultural sector.The share of the employed in terms of types of economic activity in 2013 (of the total number of the employed) was as follows: industry – 25.2%, agriculture, hunting and forestry – 9.5%, construction sector – 8.0%, transport and communication – 7.5%, trade – 14.3%, education – 9.8%, others – 25.7%. Economy Currently, Belarus is an economy in transition. After a lengthy stagnation, the Belarusian economy has been developing rather sustainably over the period of 2001-2013. The GDP, industrial output and investments have grown, as well as indicators of the population’s living standards have increased over the recent years. The industrial sector is the main contributor to the country’s GDP (27%). Such sectors as construction and trade account for 12% of the GDP (Figure 1.1). 8 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Figure 1.1 –GDP breakdown by types of economic activity in 2013 (in current prices, as percentage of total) Energy Sector Currently, production of electricity and heat in Belarus relies to a greater extent on nonrenewable energy sources (natural gas, oil, coal, peat and shales) and to a lesser extent on renewable energy sources (solar, water, wind and biomass energy). The structure of fuel and energy resources used to meet the energy demand has changes over the period of 1990 - 2013. Natural gas has become a dominant energy source by squeezing out primarily fuel oil. The share of coal used for generating thermal energy has reduced.The fuel wood, woodfire and wood waste account for the largest share among local fuels. The use of substantial quantities of peat and peat briquettes form energy generation is characteristic of Belarus. Fuel resources are mainly used to produce thermal and electric energy and also as a process fuel in the industrial sector.The share of population in the total fuel consumption has substantially grown due to the increased fleet of private cars and expanded housing fund. The Belarusian economy is characterized by a high level of the GDP energy intensity, therefore, the country has adopted a number of programs stipulating reduction of this indicator and owing to the energy efficiency measures taken, the GDP energy intensity reduced by 69% in 2013 as against 2005. The share of renewable energy sources of the total quality of energy produced is still minor (about 6%). One of the country’s energy policy priorities is to develop renewable power generation, and to meet this objective, the required regulatory legal framework has been established and the State Cadastre of Renewable Energy Sources is being maintained. Consumption of energy and fuel resources (EFR) per capita in Belarus exceeds an 9 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary average indicator elsewhere around the world, however, this indicator is lower than in EU countries. Figure1.2 - GDP energy intensity (percent as against 2005) Transport Sector The second largest source of greenhouse gases after the thermoelectric power engineering is the transport sector.Operating transportation facilities produce and emit CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, NOx and NMVOCs. The Belarusian transport industry comprises railway, motor, inland water and air transport. The railway and motor transport systems are the main modes of transport. The passenger turnover transport mode-wise reduced by 13.4%, while the freight turnover increased 1.5-fold over the period of 2000 - 2013. The mode-wise passenger traffic structure has substantially changed. For example, the share of the railway transport reduced from 6% in 2000 to 4%in 2013 in the total passenger traffic, while the share of the motor and air transport increased from 53%and 0.01% to 58%and 0.07% respectively. In 2013, the railway transport accounted for 34.2% and motor transport 17.9% in the freight traffic structure. 10 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Industrial Sector The industry generates greenhouse gases as a by-product of specific technological manufacturing cycles both by burning fuel in process furnaces to produce high-temperature heat and by chemically and thermally converting raw materials. These processes generate CO2, CO, N2O, NOx, NMVOCs and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC). The industrial sectors generating process-related greenhouse gases include as follows: metallurgy, machine-building and metalworking, petrochemical industry, construction materials industry, woodworking and pulp-and-paper industry and glass industry. In 2013, the industrial production pattern of the Republic of Belarus was as follows: manufacturing industry accounted for 90.4%, mining industry – 1.6% and production and distribution of electric energy, gas and water –8.0%. Agriculture and Forestry The main source of non-power GHG generation is the agricultural sector. This sector is the second largest in terms of greenhouse gases emissions. It accounts for nearly 26.2% of national GHG emissions. The main source of GHG emissions in the agricultural sector is the livestock breeding enterprises where greenhouse gases (mainly methane) are generated in the process of intestinal fermentation of animals and manure decomposition.The main sources of GHG emissions in farming include application of organic and mineral fertilizes, biologically fixed nitrogen, effluents from fields and crop residues, greenhouses and cultivation of drained lands. These processes and substances produce N2O, CO2 and CH4. Therefore, such factors as the change of the livestock number, crop output and also the amount of application of mineral and organic fertilizes influence the GHG emission dynamics. In 2013, the crop structure changed insignificantly compared to the previous years. The share of grain and leguminous crops increased from 42.3% to 45.8%; and the share of industrial crops increased 2-fold, or from 5.8% to 10.6% compared to 2005, while the share of feed crops reduced from 41.8% in 2005 to 37.1% in 2013. The share of potato – a traditional crop in Belarus – reduced from 8.5% in 2005 to 5.4% in 2013. The yield of grain and leguminous crops reduced from 27.2 centners per hectare of the cultivated area in 1990 to 19.4 centners per hectarein 2000 and then gradually has been increasing to reach 28.1 centners per hectare in 2005 and 29.7 centners per hectare by 2013. The similar situation is observed regarding other crops (flax, sugar beet, rape, potatoes and vegetables). Application of larger quantities of fertilizes significantly contributed to the yield growth. 11 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Waste The “Waste” sector is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions. In 2012, GHG emissions from the waste sector accounted for 7.0% of the total national emissions. The production of solid municipal waste has been continuously growing in Belarus over the recent 16 years. The specific indicator of solid municipal waste (SMW) production increased from 0.485 kg/head per day to 1.5 kg/head per day over this period, i.e. nearly 3-fold and approached the level characteristic of the European Union countries (0.85-1.7 kg/head per day). The share of the polymer materials and packaging waste, as well as glass waste has increased in the composition of municipal solid waste over the recent years. One of the most important problems in the sphere of waste management is their utilization as the secondary material resources (SMR). 894 stations for waste sorting/additional sorting of separately collected waste with the capacity of 450 t/year were in operation as of 01.01.2014, including 798 stationary and 96 mobile SMR collection points. To reduce GHG emissions in the “Waste” sector and more sustainably manage the waste, Belarus has adopted a number of programs stipulating measures with an aim to more extensively use renewable energy sources, in particular, to implement special systems and plants to capture and utilize landfill gas and also develop and introduce innovative waste recycling processes. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory System A sufficiently strong institutional framework for annually taking the GHG inventory and to update it subject to requirements of the UNFCCC is in place in the Republic of Belarus. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protectionis a coordinating body responsible for operation of the National Green house Inventory System, timely collection of data on the activities related to the GHG emissions and also for submission of the National Inventory Report (NIR) to the UN FCCC Secretariat. The National Statistics Committee, as well as responsible ministries and agencies should annually provide free the data on the activities related to the GHG emissions to maintain the Inventory. The RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology” takes the inventory, performs calculations and prepares the NIR, including the Common Reporting Format Tables (CRF), and controls quality of the NIR preparation as assigned by the MNREP and based on the collected data on the activities related to the GHG emissions. Upon approval and coordination of the final version of the NIR with the MNREP, the RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology” submits it to the UN FCCC Secretariat. According to the за 2012 GHG inventory data, total GHG emissions in СО2 equivalent 12 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary without accounting the LULUCF sector amount to 89,283.33 Ggand they reduced by 35.8% in 2012 as against 1990 (139,151.23 Gg). This reduction in the GHG emissions is primarily conditioned by sharp reductions in the GHG emissions over the period of 1990-1995 due to the economic crisis in the country as a result of the Soviet Union collapse and followed slump in production and fuel consumption. Since 1995, GHG emissions have been gradually increasing with growth in production, fuel consumption and waste production, however, the increase in emissions was much less pronounced. This GHG emission dynamics related to the growing production in the country after 1995 is conditioned by the gradual change in the fuel consumption pattern and implementation of resources- and energy-saving technologies. The “Energy” sector is the largest source of GHG emissions accounting for 61.4% of the total national emissions. The “Agriculture” sector is the second largest source in terms of GHG emissions. It accounts for 26.2% of GHG emissions. GHG emissions in the “Waste” and “Industrial Processes” sectors make up 7.0% and 4.8% of the total national emissions respectively. The use of solvents accounts for 0.1% of the GHG emissions. The factors effecting the GHG emission trends in specific sectors are discussed below. Carbon dioxide (СО2) is the main component in a GHG composition in the Republic of Belarus and its share in GHG emissions (without net СО2 sinks of the LULUCF sector) accounted for 64.4% in СО2 equivalent in 2012, then follows nitrous oxide (N2O) – 18.4% and methane (СН4) – 17.2%, the share of HFC and SF6 accounts for 0.003%. Emissions of carbon dioxide reduced by 44.6%, nitrous oxide – by 18.5% and methane emissions increased by 1.1% over the period of 1990-2012. National Registry of Carbon Units Due to the fact that the Republic of Belarus was not included in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol could not be used, and the actions to launch and operate the Registry of Carbon Units were suspended until signing a new climate agreement. Over recent years, the specialists responsible for the National Registry of Carbon Units of the Republic of Belarus (RB NRCU) are preparing it for the launch and full-fledged operation. Policy and Measures For the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, the Republic of Belarus has assumed a number of voluntary commitments to reduce the GDP energy intensity and GHG emissions with the targets until 2015 and 2020 which are stipulated in the main program documents and regulatory legal acts of the Republic of Belarus as follows: 13 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary • targets for reducing GHG emissions by 8% in 2020 as against 1990; • achieving GHG emissions at the level of not exceeding 110 mln tons by 2020; • reducing the GDP energy intensity by 29-32% as against 2010 over the period of 2011-2015. Given the assumed commitments, the strategic objective of the climate policy pursued by the Republic of Belarus is to achieve the country’s economy secure and sustainable development with GHG emissions at the lowest possible levels with due account of institutional, economic, ecological and social aspects of development under climate change conditions and likely emergence of respective threats and challenges. The Republic of Belarus has developed the regulatory legal framework in the sphere of climate impact regulation to fulfill national obligations subject to the UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Main regulatory legal acts adopted in 2005-2011 and currently being in effect are continuously supplemented by the acts directly regulating the climate impact policy and measures. The number of these regulatory legal acts is continuously increasing (Figure 1.3). Figure 1.3 - Number of regulatory legal acts adopted in the Republic of Belarus over 1996 – 2014 For the purpose of this Communication, the policy and measures being implemented in the most significant spheres of economy have been quantitatively assessed. The cumulative effect of the policy and measures implemented over the period of 2005-2014 amounted to 12.3 mln tons in СО2equivalent. Given the fact that the burning of fossil fuels is mainly responsible for generation and emission of greenhouse gases in Belarus, this assessment predominantly included the policy and measures in the energy sector. Currently, the Republic of Belarus is actually ready to form an emissions trading system (ETS). 14 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Belarus is currently establishing the regulatory legal framework for GHG emission trading. To date, possible lines of GHG emissions trading were as follows: • international GHG emission trading within the framework of Kyoto Protocol; • internal GHG emission trading between Belarusian enterprises; • GHG emission trading in voluntary carbon markets; • Kyoto Protocol's project-based mechanisms. Participation in the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol may help make adjustments to improve the existing regulatory legal framework and in case of nonparticipation – to leave it unchanged, with the attention currently being focused on voluntary carbon markets or the internal trading system. To implement the internal emissions trading system, it is required to: • ensure adequate and detailed GHG inventory taking as a first step toward establishment of the emission trading system; • take inventory and also allocate emission allowances according to the methodology accepted for emissions reporting and calculations; • draft and adopt clear-cut legislative acts; • provide access for the system management authorities to technical knowledge; • draft a package of rules related to the independent verification tool directly from an initial stage of putting the system into operation in the Republic of Belarus; • to independently verify reports from a system installation operator and a system administrator; • develop a system of verifiers accreditation authorities; • adapt requirements of the levels of monitoring process and reporting accuracy to the level of readiness of sectors within the framework of the monitoring and reporting system; • introduce electronic document and information management at the initial stage of system implementation; • draft and propose unified legal and taxation definition of a GHG emission quota unit within the framework of the emissions trading system before it is fully implemented. Forecasts GHG emission forecasts have been made based on various scenarios as follows: • projection of greenhouse gas emissions for a scenario “which provides for no measures”. This scenario excludes all energy saving policies and measures implemented, adopted or planned after 1995. • projection of greenhouse gas emissions for a scenario “which provides for 15 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary measures”. This scenario includes the measures which are implemented subject to the programs of development of various sectors of the national economy adopted in Belarus. • projection of greenhouse gas emissions for a scenario “which provides for additional measures”. This scenario includes additional measures which may be implemented in the Republic of Belarus, provided that adequate funding is available. The analysis of various scenarios has demonstrated that Belarus is able to reduce emissions by 26% by 2020 as against 1990, provided that set development indicators stipulated in the existing program documents are achieved, and by 28% relative to the baseline year, provided that additional measures are implemented. Vulnerability and Adaptation Weather-dependent sectors contribute over 41% to the Belarus’ GDP. Agriculture is the most weather-dependent sector of the Belarusian economy since its exposure to the impact of extreme weather events defines to the great extent cumulative damage to the country’s economy. The agricultural production is affected most by possible climate change. Thus, higher probability of low crop yield as a result of increase in frequency and recurrence of droughts on the territory of a number of regions, growth phase shift and insufficient soil moisture supply during the spring season, worsening of the phytosanitary conditions and invasive phytophag species and crop loss caused by increase in frequency of unfavorable hydrometeorological events may constitute the highest threat. The second sector being most vulnerable to the climate change is forestry. Even now, the shift in areas of some forest plant species, increased frequency of diseases and fires and change in the hydrological regime in a number of regions are observed in this sector. Unfavorable meteorological events result in the loss of timber reserve as they cause windfall. The reduced winter harvesting period due to shallow soil freezing and early and frequent thaws influences the forest product cost. Water resources are also highly vulnerable to the climate change. Water supply measures are time-intensive, therefore, large-scale water management projects need to be planned about 25 years in advance, and commissioning of these projects should outrun water demand beyond a 1015-year period. Adaptation Measures in Agricultural Sector: • introducing more productive, moderately late-ripening varieties (hybrids) of grain crops and vegetables which will more effectively use increased thermal resources; • expanding cultivation areas under some traditional, “forgotten” and new highly effective crops (corn, millet, soya, sugar beet, spring rape, etc.); 16 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary • improving to some extent conditions for growing stubble and postcut crops; • establishing horticultural plantings with a new set of species and variety composition; • shifting the sowing time of spring crops to earlier periods. This will help more effectively use soil moisture supply after spring snow-melting, will result in earlier grain maturity and will make it possible to grow stubble crops at a greater scale. However, May frost risk needs to be taken into account, therefore, the cultivated crops should be frost-resistant; • extending the zone of cultivating warm-weather crops northwards (100–120 km). Due to increasing aridity, the following is needed: • intensifying activities aimed at breeding new varieties and expanding the use of drought-resistance crops; • expanding regions of irrigation and sprinkler irrigation farming; • further developing the system of insurance against drought consequences; • extending the corn and millet growing areas. Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector: • elaborating and implementing the forest industry strategy and targeted program of adaptation to new climatic conditions; • forest-growing taking account of the shift of climatic zones and change in soil moisture supply regime; • shifting to increased felling age; • protecting forests from insect pests, developing prevention measures to control propagation of nonnative invasive insect pests in the country; • rehabilitating disturbed wetlands by rewetting to reactivate peat formation processes and rehabilitating other GHG natural sinks; • improving the forest/peatland fire protection system; • conducting R&D to assess the climate change impact on the forest vegetation forestry and elaborating measures for adaptation of the forest industry to this climate change. Adaptation Measures in Water Sector: • effectively using continuously reducing quality water resources; • extensively introducing water-saving technologies in various sectors of the country’s economy; • converting hydro-reclamation systems into more technically advanced systems 17 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary characterized by optimal water consumption for production purposes; • switching to a waste-free system of using water resources; • artificially replenishing groundwater resources as an option. Human health depends largely on environmental conditions so it is relevant to conduct integrated assessments of the climate change impact on ecosystems, economy and public health in the future. This would help select the most promising adaptation measures not only at the national level, but also at the interstate (regional) level. It is also suggested to continue the R&D in such spheres as designing vulnerability criteria and indicators for various climate-dependent economy sectors and implementing and planning measures aimed at adapting them to the climate change. Cooperation within the Framework of R&D, Technology Transfer and Capacity Building of Developing Countries The Republic of Belarus pays considerable attention to promoting cooperation with the developed and developing countries. Such components of this process as building institutional capacity, cooperation potential and transferring technologies to the developing countries are of critical importance. Being an economy in transition, the Republic of Belarus is entitled to the international technical assistance and, nevertheless, it provides assistance itself in the sphere of technologies transfer to the developing countries and building their capacity by training students from such countries in the Belarusian institutions of higher education. Thus, 1,894 foreign students attending courses related to the issues of environment and climate protection were trained in the Belarusian universities as of 01.08.2013. Among them, the citizens from 26 countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Vietnam, Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, China, Korea, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mali, Morocco, Moldova, Nepal, Nigeria, Peru, Syria, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Turkmenistan and Russia). Research and Systematic Observation Currently, the international cooperation in the area of climate change is carried out with such international organizations and Union State institutions as: United Nations Development Program for Belarus, UN Environment Program, the UN Economic Commission for Europe, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization, Global Climate Observing System, World Climate Research Programme, CIS Interstate Council on Ecology and Union State Committee for Hydrometeorology and 18 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Environmental Pollution Monitoring. More than 20 international technical assistance projects related to improvement of energy efficiency, energy saving, sustainable peatland management, carbon dioxide emissions reduction and climate change adaptation have been implemented over the period of 2008-2014. Due to involvement in implementation of the Voluntary Cooperation Program (WMO VCP), the National Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus is effectively introducing innovative technologies in the measurement system and is being equipped with advanced facilities for observations, communication and data processing. The Republic of Belarus is involved in implementing joint projects together with the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (RosHydromet). Since 2009, the Public Institution “Russian Hydro-Meteorological Center” (PI “RHMC”) has been participating in the BALTRAD international technical assistance project aimed at improving the network of meteorological radar stations in the Baltic Sea Region. The Republic of Belarus has acceded to the Antarctic Treaty (Law of the Republic of Belarus as of 19 July 2006 “On Accession of the Republic of Belarus to the Antarctic Treaty”). The National Hydro-Meteorological Service of the Republic of Belarus is also the primary developer and implementing agency of the State Targeted Program “Monitoring of the Earth's Polar Regions and Supporting Activities of the Arctic and Antarctic Expeditions in 2007-2010 and the Period until 2015” approved by Resolution No. 1104 dated 31 August 2006 of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus and also a co-implementing agency of the State Program “Monitoring of the Earth's Polar Regions and Supporting Activities of the Arctic and Antarctic Expeditions in 2011-2015” approved by Resolution No. 587 dated 10 May 2011 of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus. The Republic of Belarus is involved in implementation of not only multiple international, but also national projects and R&D aimed at studying the climate change, elaborating adaptation measures, etc. The studies of wetlands and peatlands in the context of GHG emissions and carbon sequestration which have been conducted for a number of years by Belarusian researchers are of significance among the most important R&D spheres. Based on the studies of wetland ecosystems, the SSI “Institute for Nature Management of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus” has developed the Technical Code of Common Practice (TCCP) “Environmental Protection and Nature Management. Climate. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases. Rules for Calculation of Emissions and Absorption by Natural Marsh Ecosystems, Drained Peat Soils, Worked-Out and Developed Peat Deposits” (TCCP 17.09-02-2011(02120)). This regulatory document was approved and put into effect by 19 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary Resolution No. 13-T dated 5 September 2011 of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus. The modern science operates methods designed to conduct direct instrumental measurements of GHG emissions and absorption by various land ecosystems, including wetlands and drained peatlands. Moreover, it is noteworthy that research on assessment of greenhouse gas fluxes from natural marshes and drained peatlands using direct instrumental measurements is already underway on Belarusian peatlands. Flux measurements have been performed using the current modification of closed chamber method for gas fluxes. The closed chamber method for gas fluxes has been used to study GHG balances of wetlands in a number of projects, in particular, in the UNDP/GEF International Technical Assistance Project “Landscape Approach to Management of Peatlands Aiming at Multiple Ecological Benefits” and International Technical Assistance Project “Implementation of New Concepts for Wet Peatland Management for the Sustainable Production of Biomass-Based Energy (Wetland-Energy)”. Recently gained research experience and obtained data in the sphere of research into GHG emissions from peatlands and wetlands prove that the Republic of Belarus has capacities to develop more advanced methodologies in this sphere of national research procedures (2 and 3 level methods). Education, Personnel Training and Public Awareness The national education policy of the Republic of Belarus is based on the principles one of which is the principle of ecology-oriented education stipulated in the Law of the Republic of Belarus “On Education”, Article 1. The Law of the Republic of Belarus No.1982-XII (ed. 22.12.2011, as amended 26.10.2012) dated 26.11.1992 “On Protection of Environment” includes Chapter 7 “Protection of the Ozone Layer. Climate Impact Regulation” which sets forth regulatory standards for protecting the ozone layer, defines responsibilities of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs effecting economic and other activity related to GHG emissions into atmosphere and also regulatory standards defining a common approach to the activity aimed to prevent harmful effect on climate. Article 23 of the Law of the Republic of Belarus No. 93-Зof 09.01.2006 (as amended 12.12.2012) “On Hydrometeorological Activity” provides for the maintaining of the State Climate Cadastre. Article 27 of the same Law covers the issues of international cooperation in hydrometeorological sphere. 20 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Executive summary The Coordinating Council for Education was established with the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus in 2006 to promote sustainable development. A separate Section discussing the issues of ecology-oriented education, training and awareness of the public was included into the National Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus until 2020, Subclause 6.2.4. Institutions of higher education are a critical component in the ecological education system. The Belarusian higher education institutions’ curricula include disciplines related to the environment and climate protection. The authorities within the MNREP system are primarily responsible for environmental training, education and public awareness enhancement. The environmental education provided by the MNREP and its territorial departments includes the following activities: media relations, release of social ecological advertisements, publication of ecological literature, arranging presentations and meetings at various companies and institutions of education, hotlines and awareness and information campaigns aimed at addressing environmental challenges. To improve activities in this sphere, all target groups of the population need to be covered by using actually entire range of information resources. 21 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals 2 NATIONAL CICUMSTANCES THAT RELATE TO GHG EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS 2.1 Geographical Location of the Republic of Belarus The Republic of Belarus is a European country with medium area and population size. Belarus locates in Central and Eastern Europe (latitude 56 10' and 51°16' N, longitude 23°11' and 32°47' E). Its territory extendes from north to south at 560 km, from west to east - 650 km. As many other member countries of the CIS Belarus is a country with economu in transition. The capital of the Republic of Belarus is Minsk, the population of Minsk amounted to 1 921.8 thousand. The city is situated in the middle of the country, at the intersection of the main traffic arteries [1]. Republic of Belarus is bordered by five caountries: Russian Federation to the north and east (the boundary measures 990km – 33.4%), Ukraine to the south (975 km – 32.8%), Poland to the west (399 km – 13.4%), Lithuania and Latvia (143km – 4.8%) to the north-west (462 km – 15.6%). International boundary measures - 2969 km. Belarus does not have any access to the sea [1]. Belarus occupies 2.1% of Europe, its area is 207.6 thousand square kilometers, including 42% - forests, 2% - water 42% - agricultural land, 14% - other lands. Belarus takes the 6th place in the territory and the 5th place in population (9 468 thousand on 1 January 2014) among the CIS countries. [2]. The most important peculiarities of Belarusian geographical location are its compact territory, central location and transit opportunities. The most important transeuropean railway lines and highways, oil- and gas pipelines, air routes and waterways between developed West Europe and Asia that is rich in natural resources get throught the territory of Belarus. The shortest routes from central and eastern Russian regions to Western Europe, as well as between the Baltic and Black seas, get through Belarus. Thus, in the ecological and geographical worldwide space Belarus is impotant country for European region. It has an impact on ecological situation in Europe through the system of crossborder air and water flows. The longest rivers in the republic: Dnipro - 700 km, Berezina - 561 km, Pripyat - 495 km, Sozh - 493 km, Neman - 436 km and Ptich - 421 km. The largest lakes: Naroch - 79.6 square kilometers, Osveyskoye - 52.8 square kilometers, Chervonoe - 40.8 square kilometers. The highest elevation above sea level: 345 m - Mount Dzerzhinskaya, Dzerzhinsk district, Minsk region. The lowest area above sea level, 80-90 m: valley of Neman, Grodno region. Climatic norm of average annual temperature in the Republic of Belarus for the period 1881-2013 is 22 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals 5.9 °C. The average annual temperature in 2013 was 7.5 °C. 2.2 Government and Legislation of the Republic of Belarus In accordance with the Constitution the Republic of Belarus is a unitary democratic social and law-based country. The head of the country is a President of the Republic of Belarus. The President of the Republic of Belarus, the Parliament and the Government of the Republic of Belarus, the courts of the Republic of Belarus exercise state authority in the Republic of Belarus. The Parliament, which is called the National Assembly, is a representative and legislative body. It is divided into two houses: House of Representatives and Council of the Republic. The Government, the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, is an executive and the central governmental body. The judicial power in Belarus belongs to courts. The system of state administration is based on functional-branch and territorial approaches and includes 24 ministers, 12 branches committees, 6 regions and 118 districts executive committees as well as city, town and rural executive committees. Administrative-territorial division of the Republic of Belarus on 1 January 2014 was as follows: 6 regions, 118 districts, 112 cities, 24in cities areas, 92 urban settlements, 23,389 rural communities. The system of environment protection governmental authorities is compossed from the President of the Republic of Belarus, National Assembly, Council of Ministers as well as local authorities. The local authorities orginese implementation of state and regional nature protection programmes. The body of special authority is Ministry of National Resources and Environment Protection that reports to the Council of Ministers. As well Emergency Control Ministry, Ministry of Public Health, and State Property Committee of the Republic of Belarus have rights to control environment conditions. Some functions related to environment conservation are fulfilled by: Forestry Ministry, Ministry of Inner Affairs, State Customs Committee, and Administrative Department of the President of the Republic of Belarus. 2.3 Natural conditions As for geological position Belarus is located within the East European platform, and physical and geographical features of the country are dictated by its location to the west part of the East European Plain. The territory of the republic is a watershed of the Baltic Sea and Black Sea Basins that confirms its deep continental location. The surface is mainly flat with typical elevated, plain areas and lowlands with bogs and lakes. Main features of the modern relief to a great extent are stipulated by continental glacierization of the Quaternary period. Glaciers 23 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals covered Belarus repeatedly in the Anthropogenic period: Belarusian (Narewsky), Berezinsky, Dneprovsky, Sozhsky, Poozersky. Dneprovsky glacier was the largest and covered whole territory of Belarus. Sozhsky glacier had the greatest impact on the formation of the relief of the central part of Belarus and spreaded to the Polesye’s border. Poozersky glacier covered only the north territory of Belarus and influenced on formation of the relief of the northern part of the country which is characterized by the youngest landforms. The average true altitude of Belarus is 160 m. The highest asle above sea level elevation is Mount Dzerzhinskaya (345m) located in Dzerzhinsk district in Minsk region. The lowest asle above sea level (80-90 m) is a valley of Neman in Grodno region [3]. The territory of Belarus has 5 physiographic provinces which are: Poozer'e, West Belarusian, Eastern Belarusian, Predpolesye and Polesye. Lakeland (46.7 thousand square kilometers) is a Northern Province which is an area of distribution of lakes of glacial origin, hilly-moraine relief and lacustrine-glacial plains formed in the era of Poozersky glacier. West Province is represented by Belarusian horseback with adjacent plains (50.3 thousand square kilometers). It occupies the western and central part of Belarus. It is hilly, the highest part of the country with denuded glacial-accumulative relief. East Belarusian Province (Pridneprov'e) (15.1 thousand square kilometers) is a plateau-like plain composed with loess. It is characterized by a flat relief and the most fertile soils. Predpolesye (37.4 thousand square kilometers) is a flat area dominated with moraine and outwash and waterglacial landscapes. Polesye (58.1 thousand square kilometers) is the largest province that occupies the south of the country. It is presented with flat alluvial, often marshy lowlands. Polesye is the main area of distribution of wetlands [3]. This diversity of natural conditions involves the use of different environmental management systems properly adapted to local landscape features in variety parts of the country. However, it should be noted that, environmental risks are increased due to climate change and natural disasters can affect to anthropogenic disasters or have adverce weather and ecological effect. 2.4 Overview of climate change in the Republic of Belarus for the period 2000-2013 Temperature In Belarus during most of the XX century till the end of the 80s the short-term periods of warming were changed by cold snap periods with similar size and duration. Warming that doesn’t have a same size for duration and intensity started in 1989 and characterized with sharp temperature rise in winter. This warming period remained in all subsequent years (Figure 2.1). 24 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals The feature of this warming period is not only in its unprecedented duration, but also in a high temperature which is exceeded a climatological norm by 1.2ºC at average for 25 years (1989-2013). о С 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 2013 2009 2005 2001 1997 1993 1989 1985 1981 1977 1973 1969 1965 1961 1957 1953 1949 1945 1941 1937 1933 1929 1925 1921 1917 1913 1909 1905 1901 1897 1893 1889 1885 1881 -2.5 Figure 2.1 – Average temperature excurcion from climatological norms for 1881-2013t period Temperature increasing was observed almost in every month (Figure 2.2). The growth in temperature is most significant during the winter and early spring months. Estimates of the changes in temperature and precipitation for the month are very important to consider in agricultural production that mainly depends on weather and climatic conditions. o C 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Figure 2.2 - Average monthly temperature excurcion for the period 1989-2013 from the average long-term values in the Republic of Belarus Generally, the analysis of average annual temperature for the entire period of observation in the territory of the Republic of Belarus shows of the 20 warmest years maximum average annual temperature recorded in the early XXI century, with the exception of 1989 (Figure 2.3). During this period the maximum average annual temperature in 2008 was 8,0 °C in mean 25 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals climatological rate of 5,9 °C. Figure 2.3 - 20 warmest years of the ranked series of observations for the entire period of observation in Belarus In general in the territory of Belarus the period 2000-2013 was warmer than period 19891999 by 0.4ºC (Table 2.1). Table 2.1 - Average annual air temperature in Belarus for the period of warming Climate norm ºC for 1961-1990 5,9 1989-1998 6,7 The average annual temperature, ºC for the period 1999-2008 1989-2008 1989-2013 7,2 6,9 7,1 During warming period since 1989 maximum monthly values in most months of the year (except May and October) in more than 70% of events and the annual maximum temperature in 100% of events were overreached (Table 2.2). It should be noted that most of exceedances were observed for the period 2000-2013. Table 2.2 - The maximum monthly and annual maximum temperature, °C Station Verhnedvinsk Vitebsk Minsk Maryina Horka I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year 0,3 2,2 4,5 9,9 16,2 20,0 22,3 20,1 14,1 9,5 4,5 3,1 7,4 1989 1990 2007 2000 1963 1999 2010 1939 1975 1967 1978 2006 1989 -0,5 1,6 4,7 10,2 18,1 21,2 23,4 21,4 14,2 9,8 4,4 2,5 7,7 2007 1990 2007 2001 1897 1999 2010 2010 2005 1896 1996 2006 1989 0,5 2,6 5,2 11,0 17,2 21,1 22,6 20.9 15,2 9,7 4,7 2,7 7,9 1989 1990 2007 1920 1987 1999 2010 2010 1919 1896 1996 2006 1989 0,3 2,6 5,4 11,5 17,2 21,2 22,8 20,8 15,2 10,2 5,0 2,5 8,0 2007 1990 2007 1921 1897 1999 2010 2010 1919 1896 1926 2006 2008 26 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Lida 1,2 3,4 5,6 11,3 16,1 19,9 21,9 20,0 14,6 9,7 6,1 3,2 8,2 1989 1990 2007 2000 1963 1999 2010 2010 1975 1967 1926 2006 2008 1,8 3,7 5,6 11,4 17,0 19,5 22,0 20,3 15,4 11,0 6,7 3,4 8,4 1983 1990 2007 2000 1906 1964 2010 2002 1967 1896 1926 2006 2008 -0,9 0,6 4,1 10,3 17,3 20,4 23,2 21,0 15,1 9,3 4,5 1,7 7,1 2007 1990 2007 1920 1906 1999 2010 2010 1909 1896 1996 2006 2008 -0,5 1,4 4,8 10,5 17,3 20,5 22,9 20,9 15,7 9,8 4,7 2,0 7,5 2007 1990 2007 1950 1906 1999 1936 2010 1909 1896 1996 2006 1989 2,6 4,6 6,7 12,4 17,6 20,7 22,6 21,6 16,4 12,0 7,8 3,3 9,5 2007 1990 2007 2000 1889 1964 2006 1992 1892 1896 1926 2006 2000 1,9 3,7 6,1 12,2 18,1 21,0 23,0 21,4 16,1 11,2 5,6 2,6 9,0 2007 1990 2007 2000 1889 1999 2010 1992 1909 1896 2010 2006 1989 0,6 2,2 5,7 12,6 18,1 22,3 24,5 23,5 16,4 11,0 5,9 2,4 8,8 2007 1990 2007 2000 2003 1999 2010 2010 1994 1935 2010 1960 2008 1,1 2,8 5,6 12,5 18,1 21,3 23,0 21,9 16,0 11,1 5,9 2,6 8,5 2007 1990 2007 1921 1906 1999 2010 2010 1994 1896 2010 1960 2008 Grodno Gorki Mogilev Brest Pinsk Gomel Vasilevichi The absolute maximum temperature for the period of warming for more than a hundred years of observations were exceeded in 55% of cases and most of exceedances was observed for the period 2000-2013 (Table 2.3). Table 2.3 - The absolute maximum temperature. °C Station Verhnedvinsk Vitebsk Minsk Maryina Horka Lida Grodno Gorki Mogilev Brest I II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII Year 10.1 10,9 17,4 27,2 31,3 32,0 34,6 34,7 31,3 24,5 15,7 10.4 34,7 2007 1990 1938 1950 1958 1940 1959 1992 1992 1999 1968 2006 1992 10.4 10,9 18,1 28,5 31,3 31,8 34,7 37,8 30,1 24,6 14,9 10.7 37,8 2007 1990 1990 2012 2005 1940 2010 2010 2008 1999 1968 2009 2010 10,3 13,6 18,9 28,8 30,9 32,5 35,0 34,6 30,3 24,7 16,0 10,3 35,0 2007 1990 1990 2012 2003 1964 1936 2007 1992 1934 1926 1961 1936 11.0 14,0 20,4 28,2 31,4 33,5 35,4 36,0 31,1 25,5 19,0 11,1 36,0 2007 1990 1903 2012 2005 1901 1936 2010 2008 1999 1926 2009 2010 11,5 14,8 19,7 28,5 31,5 32,7 35,2 35,3 31,8 24,7 17,0 11,6 35,3 2007 1989 1990 2012 2007 1964 1994 1992 1992 1985 2002 1961 1992 11,8 15,0 22,0 29,2 34,2 34,0 35,8 36,2 32,2 25,2 17,2 12,7 36,2 2007 1990 1968 2012 1898 1972 1904 1992 1961 1966 1968 1961 1992 9,0 11,1 17,3 27,6 30,9 32,6 35,3 38,7 29,9 24,5 13,1 9,7 38,7 2007 1990 1990 2012 1912 1940 2010 2010 2008 1999 1930 2009 2010 9,8 12,9 19,8 29,1 31,8 33,2 36,3 36,8 30,6 25,5 14,5 10,9 36,8 2005 1990 1913 2012 1889 1889 1897 2010 2008 1999 2002 2009 2010 11,6 17,2 22,8 30,7 34,3 33,2 36,6 36,6 31,5 26,4 19,0 14,5 36,6 1993 1990 1913 1950 1892 1901 1959 1892 2008 1966 2002 1961 1959 27 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Pinsk Gomel Vasilevichi 11,2 16,4 22,3 30,2 32,9 35,5 36,1 36,3 32,6 26,7 20,3 12,8 36,3 2007 1990 1974 2012 1892 1885 1904 1905 2008 1966 2002 1961 1905 9,6 15,8 20,7 29,3 32.5 34,0 37,9 38,9 32,2 27,5 18,0 11,6 38,9 2007 1990 1990 2012 2007 1998 1936 2010 2008 1999 2010 2008 2010 11,5 15,7 21,7 30,3 33,0 35,3 37,0 38,0 32,5 27,1 23,7 12,0 38,0 1975 1990 1990 2012 2007 1901 1936 1946 2008 1915 1926 1961 1946 Precipitation and wind The rainfall analysis for the period of warming (1989-2013) shows some decrease in precipitation, mainly, in the southern and ameliorated part of Belarus. In the northern part a slight increase in precipitation is observed. In general, it can be assumed that the precipitation for the period of warming on the territory of Belarus has changed slightly (Figure 2.4). мм 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 2013 2009 2005 2001 1997 1993 1989 1985 1981 1977 1973 1969 1965 1961 1957 1953 1949 1945 1938 1934 1930 1926 1922 1915 1911 1907 1903 1899 1895 1891 -200 Figure 2.4 - Annual precipitation exucurcion fom the climatological norms (656 mm)for the period 1881-2013 in the Republic of Belarus At an average over the last twenty years in warm season shortage of precipitation was observed in April, June, October, November, December, and especially in August, when the average shortage of precipitation is 10 - 15%. At the same time exeedence in normal precipitation is observed in March and October, especially in February, when the falls of up to 120% of norm (Figure 2.5). 28 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals % 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Figure 2.5 - Monthly precipitation excursion from the climaticological norms t for 1989-2013 in the Republic of Belarus Starting from the 70s of the last century there is a tendency to a decrease in the mean wind speed, which generally corresponds to the general trends (Figure 1.6). However, established in the Republic of Belarus "Atlas of winds" allows to evaluate the wind potential in different regions of Belarus and indicates the possibility of a wide effective use of wind energy as a renewable energy source. Figure 2.6 – Average wind speed (m/s) excursion from the long-term values (the rate of 3.4 m/s ) for the period 1946-2013 in the territory of the Republic of Belarus Dangerous and adverse events Every year, on the territory of Belarus registered from 9 to 30 dangerous hydrometeorological events. Most of indicated dangerous hydrometeorological events are local. However, events such as frost, strong winds, heavy rain, heavy snow, extreme fire danger in some years cover a significant part of the territory of Belarus. Analyzing the total number of 29 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals dangerous hydrometeorological events it should be noted that no significant increase was observed. Distribution of dangerous hydrometeorological events by years is provided in the Figure 2.7. Figure 2.7 - Dangerous hydrometeorological events in the Republic of Belarus in 2004-2014 [4] The impact of dangerous hydrometeorological events on economy is important consequence of the ongoing climate change in the Republic of Belarus. At present there is a trend of increasing economic damage to economy sectors as a result of unfavorable and dangerous hydrometeorological events and environmental pollution. The number of observed dangerous events (Figure 1.7) has increased in the Republic of Belarus in 2011 - 2013 while damage from them is more than 50% of the total damage. The degree of influence of hydrometeorological conditions varies depending on the nature of industrial activity and technological processes in different economic sectors. Individual sectors of the economy of the Republic of Belarus have different degrees of sensitivity to hydrometeorological events - a specific set of unfavorable weather conditions. The assessment of damage from dangerous and extreme hydrometeorological event to economy sectors which was conducted by international experts from the World Bank for is provided below: agriculture - 42%, fuel and energy - 19%, construction - 12%, municipal services - 8%, road and rail transport - 7%. Degree of weather dependence of Belarusian economy was defined as the total specific 30 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals weight of the most weather-dependent sectors in the GDP. According to expert estimates of the State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus the list of these sectors includes agriculture and forestry (up to 10.4% of GDP.), fuel and energy (6.5%), construction (7.5%), transport and communication (11.3%), residential services (2.9%) and municipal services (2.9% of GDP). The total contribution of weather-dependent sectors is 40 - 42% of GDP. Agriculture is the most weather-dependent economy sector. The contribution of agriculture in GDP in the Republic of Belarus reaches 10%. However, climate changes not only increase dependence country on weather, but also create new conditions for the production, including agricultural. The boundaries of agro-climatic areas (Figure 2.8) has changed in the Republic of Belarus, a «new» IV agro-climatic area appeared in the south of country, which has the most warm and length of growing season compared with I, II and III areas. Borders of agro climatic areas Borders of agro climatic areas under A.Ch. Shklyar (1973) under V.I. Melnik (1989-2005) Agro climatic areas: Agro climatic areas: I – North, II – Central, I – North, II – Central, III – South III – South, IV – New. Figure 2.8 - Comparison of the boundaries of the agro-climatic areas Absolutly, it is very difficult to predict how these trends of basic climatic characteristics changes of temperature and precipitation will remain in the future, but we can say that the warming that began in the late twentieth century in the territory of Belarus is ongoing and the results of monitoring of climate change require continuous studies and analysis. Experts from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2006) 31 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals estimated the meteorological vulnerability of the territory of the Republic of Belarus according to the accepted international approaches. There is the risk of influence of unfavorable weather conditions and extreme hydrometeorological events on the economy that estimated as “higher” (Table 2.4): Table 2.4 - Meteorological vulnerability integral index Meteorological vulnerability (the value of the integral index) Belarus Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia Albania Serbia «higher» (581) «higher» (719) «rhigher» (739) «rhigher» (775) «higher» (614) «middle» (445) A special place in climate change should be given to the scientific and practical researches on climate change, especially for agro-climatic, water and other resources, with following long-range forecasting of the parameters for the scientific base of programs of the adaptation of the economy and biodiversity conservation in a climate change, as it is included in the Concept of the National Strategies for Sustainable Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Belarus up to 2030 and in the State Program of Measures to Mitigate Climate Change for 2013-2020 and other documents. 2.5 Water Resources The Republic of Belarus has comparatively favorable conditions with water supply. Available natural waters resources are of fair quantity to satisfy modern as well as future needs. There are large number of water objects presented by rivers (20.8 thousand), lakes (10.8 thousand), water-collecting areas (153) and pounds (1.5 thousand) on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Total length of the rivers is 90.6 thousand km. About 55% of the annual flowoff falls at the Black sea basin (Dnieper, Sozh, Pripyat), 45% - the Baltic Sea basin (West Dvina, Neman, Vilia, West Bug). Water resources depend on meteorological conditions (rainfall, soil moisture, temperature, evaporation from water surfaces, etc.), the hydraulic interconnection of surface and groundwater, as well as on the intensity of their use. For the annual evaluation of the water balance and water resources data hydrological monitoring of surface water by 136 points, including on rivers and canals (122), lakes and reservoirs (14) are used. In addition, there are 474 observation wells for monitoring of groundwater. The water resources accounted for 57.9 km3 in Belarus in an average year in water supply, while 34.0 km3 are generated in the country. In 2013, the surface of water resources in Belarus formed in accordance with 32 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals percipitation in the this year and humidity of the previous year and amounted to 62.4 km3 or 108% of the multiyear average value (57.8 km3). Dnieper River accounted for 22% of countries flowoff (14.4 km3), Sozh River - 15% (9.1 km3), Pripyat River - 18% (11.5 km3), Western Dvina River - 34% (20.3 km3), Neman River 8% (5.1 km3) and Viliya River - 3% (2.0 km3) of total flowoff in the coutry. Characteristic features of the water regime of rivers in Belarus observed in 2012 were based on data from systematic observations of the consumption and level of water in the hydrological gauges of SI “Republican Hydrometeorological Center”. The first ice events on rivers were formed in late December, the second and third decade of January due to the prevalence of warm weather in December 2011 and the first half of January 2012, which are 3060 days later multiyear dates. Steady freezing formed in the second and third decade of January that is 25-60 days later than multiyear average term. Major part of the large rivers flowing through Belarus is transboundary. Their water resources are partly formed beyond the country on the territory of the Russian Federation (Dnieper, Sozh, West Dvina), Ukraine (Pripyat, West Bug), Poland (West Bug). Crossing Belarusian borders the large transboundary rivers flow through the territory of Ukraine (Dnieper), Lithuania (Neman and Vilia), Latvia (West Dvina). Belarus has significant underground water resourcessuch as fresh drinking (salt content is less than 1g of dissolved solids in 13 of water), mineral (table water and for balneological procedures), as well as salt brines with a concentration of dissolved solids from 35 till 500 g/dm3. Renewable (natural) resources of underground waters amounted to 15,9 km3 per year, prospective – 18.1km3 per year. Fresh underground waters are the main source of utility and drinking water supply. There are 282 deposits for drinking water supply for 106 settlements with production reserves of fresh water in an amount of 7065.0 thousand. m3/day on the territory of the Republic. 183 water intakes are widely used, from which 99 are in reserve. The Republic of Belarus has considerable resources of mineral waters, which are used for sanatorium treatment, production and consumption for drinking in wide range of bottled water. There are 224 wells with mineral water, which are 130 wells in operation, 94 wells – in reserve. According to the State Water Cadastre in 2013 there was a negative trend in water intake from water bodies and groundwater sources, and noted reduction of volume by 71 million m3 or 4.3% (Table 2.5) [3]. 33 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Table 2.5 - Extraction of fresh water in Belarus in 2009-2013., Million m3 2010 г. 1598 2011 г. 1638 2012 г. 1641 2013 г. 1571 Surface waters 721 747 743 696 Underground waters 877 891 898 874 Extracted water category Total Reduction in the water intake from water bodies and groundwater sources compared to 2012 was observed in all regions of the country, except Grodno, where the index remained at the same level. Underground waters in the structure total water intake still accounted for 56%, in 2012 55%. The volume of water losses from transportation to use treatment reflects the level of technical status of water supply systems. Water losses during transportation in 2013 decreased campared to 2012 by 1 million m3 (Table 1.6), however, the proportion of losses in relation of water drawing remained at 5% [3]. Table 2.6 - Water losses during transportation in Belarus in 2009-2013, Million m3 Region, city Brest region Vitebsk region Gomel region Grodno region Minsk region Mogilev region Minsk Total: 2009 7 12 10 6 8 13 28 84 2010 7 18 14 7 14 15 27 102 2011 6 11 14 6 12 14 20 84 2012 7 11 13 6 14 13 20 84 2013 6 8 12 7 14 14 25 83 In 2013 1373 million m3 of water were used for various needs in the economy that is by 69 million m3 less than in 2012 (Table 2.7). Herewith, 35% (34% in 2012) of the total amount of water are used for drinking purposes, for the production - 30% (as in 2012), for fishering - 27% (28% in 2012), for agriculture- about 7% (8% in 2012), for irrigation - 0.4%. Table 2.7 - Dynamics of water use in Belarus for various needs in 2009-2013., million m3 Needs 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Drinking needs 501 495 486 492 477 Production needs 371 393 423 429 407 6 7 4 6 5 110 108 110 114 112 Irrigation Agricultural water supply 34 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Pond fish farming 350 357 383 401 372 Всего: 1338 1359 1406 1442 1373 The use of drinking water for production purposes has increased by 2 million m3 (1.1%) and accounted for 171 million m3. The per capita rates of water consumption has decreased in 2013 compared to 2012 by 3.5% and amounted to 138 l/per/day, which corresponds to the level of water consumption in most European countries (120-150 l/pers./day). Public Water supply is 86%, including the rural population - 57%; Acsess to Public Disposal system is 74%, including the rural population - 30% [3]. Priority problems of groundwater use: − insufficient access to centralized water supply, especially of the rural population; − insufficient public access to quality drinking water from centralized water supply systems; − in-stream violation of drinking water in centralized water supply to quality standards for nitrates and other indicators; − big loss of water in the water supply systems due to the deterioration of the systems. 1.4 million of people from which 1.1 million is rural population use decentralized sources of water (shaft wells). In 2013 water using in the circulation water supply systems was by 1% more in 2012 due to increasing in production in the fuel and energy sector, despite the total down trend, which was consistently observed since 2010. The status of water bodies of the country as a whole is estimated as satisfactory - more than 90% of the monitoring stations in 2013 were characterized by good quality of water and about 10% - satisfactory in accordance with the assessment of water quality using a water pollution index for the interpretation of a large amount of hydrochemical data in the Republic of Belarus. 2.6 Soils and Land Resources Main soil types in Belarus are as follows: sod-podzol, sod-podzol-watelogged, sod and calcareous, calcareous-waterlogged, peat-bog and flood plain sod soils. Mechanical composition of soil-forming materials is quite heterogeneous, however, sabulous soils – 42.5%, loam and clay soils – 37.6%, sandy – 13.6% and peat soils – 6.3% are prevailed among croplands. 35 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals By the degree of moisture of 45.3% of the total area of arable land is represented by automorphic (normally moist) soils, 40.3% - semi-hydromorphic (long-term excessive moisture), and 14.4% - hydromorphic (permanently excessive moisture). Thus, the main fund of arable land in Belarus (85.6%) includes soils of automorphic and semi-hydromorphic series. Land Fund of the Republic of Belarus amounted to 20,760.0 thousand ha on 01.01.2014; 43.3% of the fund are used by agricultural organizations; private farms - 0.8%; population 4.6%; state forestry organizations - 40.6%; industry, transport, communications, defense, land occupied by hydraulic structures, etc. - 2.9%; environmental, health, recreational, historical and cultural purposes - 4.5%; public land and others - 3.4%. Structure of the State Land Fund of the Republic of Belarus by type land uses is shown in Table 2.8. Data on the areas land obtained from the State Committee on Property of the Republic of Belarus [6]. Table 2.8 - Structure of the Land Fund of the Republic of Belarus by the types of land and its changes for 1990 - 2013. Type of Land 1990 Area, thousand ha 2000 2005 2010 2013 Changes, % 1990-2013 Total agricultural land, including: - croplands 9414,8 9257,7 8984,9 8897,5 8726,4 -7,31 6104,9 6133,2 5539,4 5510,5 5559,7 -8,93 - meadow 3156,8 2995,1 3297,6 3240,6 3032,6 -3,93 - fallow lands and under permanent crops Forests Lands and other forestry lands Bogs Water bodies Roads and other transport routes 153,1 129,4 147,9 146,4 134,1 -12,41 8229,2 8436,8 8466,5 8566,7 8630,7 4,88 948,8 458,1 964,3 475,2 901,8 469,6 873 469,8 859,2 469,2 -9,44 2,42 326,9 358,1 371,9 392,1 396 21,14 338,9 154,7 142,5 147 150,4 -55,62 105,1 44,6 1046,2 328,7 24,1 760,3 327,6 5,4 1089,6 344 5,4 1186,4 353,8 5,7 1168,6 236,63 -87,22 11,70 20759,5 20759,9 20759,8 20759,8 20760,0 Streets and other public spaces Built-over land Disturbed land Unused and other land The total area of land, million ha The reduction trend of croplands remained in 2013 and it decreased by 688 thousand ha compared to the base year. The main reasons for this are: low-productivity land use change from the agricultural use; trees and shrubs invasion; land allocating for industrial, housing and road construction. 36 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Belarus has adopted a series of laws, which define the procedure and rules for environmental land restoration based on scientifically substantiated measures for their use. Significant quantitative and qualitative changes for the better have been in the forest fund of Belarus over the past 20 years. They are due to both the economic activity of the organizations conducting forestry, and natural processes of forest growth. Total area of the forest fund of the republic during this period increased by 1 million 373 thousand ha through the creation of new forests on agricultural land low-productivity. Reforestation and afforestation in the Republic of Belarus provides: − obligatory reforrestation of cut-over area, burned-out forests and other categories of forest lands from forest fund in a period not exceeding 2-3 years after their formation; − compliance of tree species with habitat conditions; rational use of land from forest − conservation of biological diversity and gene pool of forests; − increase the area of oak, ash and linden forests; − the creation of forest plantation mainly from mixed species composition; − increase water protection, protective, health-improving of forests properties, as fund; well as their productivity and sustainability; − conservation (increase) of forest cover of the Republic of Belarus; − the satisfying of public socio-economic requirements in a variety forest products. In addition, there is a steady increase of the area of ripening, ripe and overripe stands in the Republic of Belarus. The area of ripe forest stands increased more than twice over a twentyyear period. 60% of Belarusian forests are represented by coniferous species. The Birch dominates among broadleaved species. The hard-leaved species such as oak, hornbeam, ash, maple, elm and others accounted for 4%. A qualitative improvement of forest fund conditions of the republic along with the increase in the total forest area is caused by goal-directed activity of foresters. The total stand volume increased by 1.6 times, ripe stands volume amounted to 197 million m3 as a result due to of planned regulation of fellings, mainly, fellings for primary use. Built-up areas increased by 241.6 thousand ha. Other types of land area have not changed so much. The area of reclaimed lands on 1January 2014 amounted to 3436.1 thousand ha, including drained land - 3406.5 thousand ha from which agricultural land accounted for 85.5%; irrigated 29.6 thousand ha (all irrigated lands are agricultural). 37 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Hence, estimating land and raw materials potential of Belarus as quite a high one it is necessary to note that changes in the structure of the land supply within the last years are connected with the restoration process of natural and household potential of lands, provision of population with land parcels, transfer of low production agricultural lands to forestry enterprises, optimization of agricultural land use, allocations for all kinds of construction etc. Area of the environment stabilizing lands (forests, natural meadow, tree and shrubbery vegetation, marshes and water) accounts for 50% of overall area of the lands. In comparison with West European countries Belarus is characterized by greater safety of woodlands and wetlands. The Chernobyl accident significantly affected land fund of Belarus. 246.2 thousand ha of contaminated lands by radioactive materials or 1.2% of the total land area on 1January 2014 were transferred from use. Herewith, 63.1% of lands set-aside are the forest land, 1.9% are land covered by trees and shrubs, 7.6% - land for wetlands, 27.4% - and other unused land. Radioactive and chemical pollution, construction, mining, forest and peat fires, flooding and bogging, intensive recreation, water and wind erosion lead to land degradation and exhausting, as well as lose their ecological status [5]. Water erosion accounted for 85% of total eroded lands in Belarus, wind erosion accounted for 15%. The total area of eroded and erosion-prone lands is more than 556.5 thousand ha [6]. 2.7 Biological Resources Belarusian biological diversity has large national and international importance, because it supports global ecological balance and conservation of the biosphere's genetic systems. Belarusian natural and socio-economic conditions facilitate to generate and protect at its territory a great number of rare ecosystems and animal and plants species, which have disappeared or are threatened with extinction in Europe. Sufficient areas of natural landscapes (resources of valuable genetic fund) have survived in Belarus. Belarus has considerable potential of biological diversity of both flora and fauna resources. Today natural vegetation occupies 62.2% of Belarusian territory. Flora is represented by forests (7,8 million ha), meadows (3,3 million ha), bushes (0,49 million ha), bog (0.92 million ha) and aquatic (0.48 million ha) vegetation. Plants are the most important natural component forming Belarusian landscapes and influencing micro- and mesoclimate, developing significant part of country’s natural resources [3]. Biological diversity indicator is availability of about 11,5 thousand plant species, including higher plants – till 2100, inferior plants - 9000-9400 species. Till the present time it is 38 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals known 1638 species of vascular plants with absolute dominance of herblike species (1550). Among woody plants there are 107 wild-growing indigenous species, of which 28 are trees, and the rest are bushes, sub-shrubs and under- shrubs. It is known 430 bryophytes, 477 lichens, algae - more than 2200, fungi - up to 7000 species. The flora of Belarus exclide endemic species, but include the relics of past eras. More than 130 rare relict species (8% of the flora) are among the vascular plants. The territory of Belarus is located at the junction of two major vegetation zones - boreal with domination coniferous and nemoral with a predominance of summer-green deciduous forests. Such condition predetermined allocation within it three geobotanical subzones of oakdark-conifer south-taiga forests, hornbeam-oak-dark-conifer subtaiga and broad-leaved-pine forests. Forests are the natural wealth of Belarus; they are one of the main natural resources of the country. Pine (55,6%) and spruce (11,2%) forests prevail in the structure of a forest. Smallleaved forests are mainly presented by birch (18,5%), black alder (7,7 %), white alder (1,4%) and aspen (2,0%) formations. Portion of broad-leaved forests amount to 3,4%, including oak 2,9%. Forest fund of Belarus accounted for 9.5 million hectares, percentage of forest land is about 40 per cent. Timber volume is estimated at 1.7 million m3. Annual increase is more than 31.9 million m3 of timber. 0.9 ha of forested land and more than 180 m3 of stand volume per habitant accounted for in the republic. Steady growth of areas of ripening, ripe and overripe plantations is observed together with the increase in the total area of forest fund in Belarus. The area of ripe forest stands increased more than twice over a twenty-year period. Forest coverage of the republic increased nearly doubled over the past 60 years and reached a maximum value in more than a hundred years period (1901 - 37.6%). The total stand volume increased by 2 times, ripe stands volume amounted to 248.1 million m3 as a result due to of planned regulation of fellings, mainly, fellings for primary use. In 1989 the share of ripe forests was only 2.3%, while today it is 14.7%. Allowable cut increased annually. In 2010 it was approved in the amount of 7.6 million 3 m , in 2011 - 8.3 million m3, in 2012 - 8.7 million m3, in 2013 - 9.3 million m3, in 2014 - 11 million m3, in 2015 - 11.3 million m3. The age structure of forests is not effective in economy sense. Young growth and middleaged stands (66.6%) dominate on forest land. Ripe stands that define volume of allowable cut and land fund accounted for 12%, ripping - 28,4%. 50.4% of the forests in the republic are covered by pine, 23.1% - birch, 9.2% - spruce, 8.5% - black alder, 2.1% - aspen and 3.3% other species. Soft-leaved species (alder, birch, aspen) grow mainly in the lower places with 39 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals excessive moisture in the area of 2.9 million ha. Drainage of its lands is not reasonable for environment. Replacing these species on coniferous and broadleaved in forest management and reforestation should be carried out in small volumes, and fast-growing broadleaved species should be considered as a long-term resource for economic use. A qualitative improvement of forest fund conditions of the republic along with the increase in the total forest area is caused by goal-directed activity of foresters. The volume of forest plantations created by planting materials is steadily increasing in the forests of the Ministry of Forestry. The Republic of Belarus is well-provided with forest resources. Forest resources include forest and non-forest lands. Forest lands are the lands covered by forests and land not covered by forests but intended for its recreation (glades, burned-out forests, failed forests, light forests, wastelands and open forest communities). Non-forest lands are lands used for agricultural purposes, glades, roads, reclamation network etc., as well as other lands of a forest fund (wetlands, reservoirs, watercourses other areas unsuitable for forest growing) given for the needs of forestry. Information on the state of the forest fund of the Republic of Belarus includes in the State Forest Inventory, according to which on 01.01.2014 the total area of forest fund land amounted to 9477.1 thousand ha. The increasing tendency of area under forests is continuing, which on 01.01.2014 year amounted to 39.3%. Gomel (45.8%), Vitebsk (39.9%) and Minsk (38.5%) regions are characterized with maximum area under the forests [4]. Lelchitsa district in Gomel region (66.5%) and Rossony district in Vitebsk region (67%) are most covered with forests. An increase of total stand volume was observed in 2013 compared to the previous year by 33.7 million m3, including the potential use - 20.7 million m3, which is caused by the natural growth of forest stands and its remainder stock. Increase of stand volume is observed for all species groups, as well as for ripe and overripe stands, the share of which increased from 13.6 to 14.1% in total wood stocks. A major part of forest lands and volume of stands is contributed by middle-aged stands 3852.4 thousand ha and 853.8 million m3 respectively, the young growth - 1557.9 thousand ha and 116.6 million m3, ripening - 1774 0 thousand ha and 462.7 million m3, ripe and overripe 938.6 thousand ha and 236.0 million m3 contribute. In general, the area of forested land and volume of stands accounted for 8123.3 thousand ha and 1669.1 million m3, respectively, from which area of the main forest forming species is 8085.6 thousand ha and volume of stands - 1668.4 million m3. However, forestry has a number of unresolved problems. Species composition of the forests is not optimal yet. Areas of hard-leaved forests are 1,5-2,0 times less than they could 40 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals really be. Percentage of soft-leaved species is high enough, the forestry coverage is not regular. Average volume of ripe stands per 1 ha, as well as their average density accounted for 50-60% of optimal. Intensity of use of forest resources is not high: about 1% of total reserve and about 50% of average annual growth. Proper forest management and competent forestry have positive impact on forests, their flora and fauna, soil, water protection and protective functions. Fellings, reforestation and afforestation, forest melioration, side use of forest resources have a most significant on impact forests. Volume of commercial wood from all types of felling in 2013 accounted for 14,590 thousand m3. At the same time fellings for primary use was about 30% [3]. As in previous years, the largest area of fellings was in Minsk region (22.6% of the total fellings), Gomel (20.6%) and Brest (20.4%), followed by Mogilev region (13.8%), Vitebsk (12,3%) and Grodno (10.3%). Conservation of forests (reforestation) is a complex of measures to establish forest stands on lands where the forest was felled during the primary use or destroyed by natural disasters (fires, hurricanes, pests and forest diseases). The forest composition, increase its productivity are improved in the process of reforestation, as well as environmental, water conservation, safety, sanitation, recreation and other environmental functions of forests are implemented. Afforestation is carried out on land where the forests have not grown earlier. As a rule, this is the lands transferred from agriculture, exhausted mine fields (peat, sand, building materials) and contaminated by anthropogenic emissions. Science-based reforestation and afforestation is an important condition for sustainable forest management and use; as well as is an instrument for conservation of forest flora and fauna biodiversity, the genetic potential of forests and environment. In 2013, forest management projects were implemented on an area of 1442 ha. Reforestation and afforestation were implemented on an area of 31.2 thousand ha, including planting and sowing forests - 24.7 thousand ha. Young growth species was transferred to category of valuable wood species on 52.3 ha, also 20.8 million seedlings was planted in the nursery, 184.9 tons of seeds of trees and shrubs were harvested [3]. An important indicator used for quantitative assessment of stands is productivity. In general, the productivity of forests in Belarus in 2013 compared to 2012 increased by 35.7 thousand ha and accounted for 8,123.3 thousand ha. In 2013, as before, the largest contribution was from amounted high-productive forests (53.7% of the total productivity of forests in Belarus), the lowest – from low-productivity (3.3%), the contricution of middleproductive forests amounted to 43.0% [3]. 41 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals According to the State Forest Inventory data forest area in group I (forest reserves, sanctuaries, urban forests, protective wooded area, etc.) and group II (commercial forests) in 2013 increased by 34.7 and 178.7 thousand ha, respectively. Total forest area in group I accounted for 50.8% of the total forest area of these groups, II group - 49.2%. Belarusian forests is affected by fires that occur from 400 to 1,500 forest fires annually and cover in some years up to 2.5 thousand ha. 2013 was characterized with low flammability; fire has been covered an area of 48 ha and it was absolute minimum for the last 24 years [2]. The state forestry and environmental organizations provide forests monitoring on the status of diseases and forest pests. Generally, in 2013, forest-pathology situation in the forests of Belarus has slightly improved. Forest ecosystems stability that was impaired in previous years began to improve. The total area of disturbed stands in 2013 amounted to 8023 ha and was by 1665 ha lower than in previous year. The area of disturbed coniferous reached 7 503 ha (93.5% of the total area of disturbed area). Reduction in the area of disturbed forests was caused, mainly, by decrease in adverse effect of weather conditions, as well as due to decrease in the area of forest affected by fires. RUE "Bellesozaschita" implemented measures for destruction of forest pests in the area of 25 825 ha. The forest disease centers in an area of 91,622 ha were destructed by natural factors [3]. Shrub vegetation is represented by the groups of hydrophytic willow-shrubs (52,5%) being formed at wetlands, xerophitic juniper bushes confined to heathlands and uniquely rare blackthorn (34,2%), as well as flood plain shrubs (13,3%). Meadow vegetation in Belarus is represented by wide spectrum of herbal communities of upland, bottomland, river and lake valleys. The meadows, with the exception of flood plain meadows, are secondary. Without practical use – haying, pasturing, and maintenance - they brush, grow over, swamp. Poium’s ecological role is to create favorable conditions to exist for numerous plants and animals, which need open space, including rare and endangered, as well as useful for agriculture species. Mosaic of forest and non-forest (meadows and marshes) areas create auspicious ecological and aesthetic conditions, increase environment’s biotopical capacity. Under meadow grass-cover a peaty sod soils are formed. They play significant erosionpreventive and water protection role that used by bioreclamation of disturbed soils. Water vegetation is mainly typical for Belarusian Poozerie. In rivers, lakes, reservoirs and ponds there are beds of bur reed, rushes and arrowhead. Macrophytes form trails of various widths along coastlines. In the mid-water, at the bottom of water bodies hundred species of algae are widespread. 42 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Among mire vegetation prevail eutrophic bog formations that account for 61,1% of total area; they are followed by mesotrophic (transition) bog - 20,7% and oligotrophic bog - 18,2%. Eutrophic bogs prevail at Polesie, oligotrophic – at Poozerie, and mesotrophic bogs are mainly typical for the central part of the country. Bog vegetation has changed significantly within the last decades. Bogs were the main objects of drainage reclamation and further transformed to the agricultural lands. Upon this, the area of open bogs and carrlands has decreased considerably, and transition and oligotrophic bogs – in a less degree. The bogs of Belarusian Polesie and central part of the country have been intensively developed, where the area of open bogs and carrlands has decreased more than twice for 40 years. The area of oligotrophic bogs has decreased considerably in the result of the peat removal [3]. Within the last decade Belarusian bog landscapes, which fix one of the greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2) effectively, have been obtaining a discrete role because of the problem of global warming. At the same time, bogs withdrawing carbon from the atmosphere produce methane and thereby to some extent regulate the climate. If tropical countries (India, Brazil, Australia) are the source of carbon dioxide, Belarus - one of the most significant sinks of CO2 in terrestrial ecosystems. All this shows the great biospheric importance of wetlands in the carbon cycle, and therefore stresses the need for a more rational use and protection of wetland ecosystems. Oligotrophic bogs of Byelorussian Poozer'e are particularly valuable for environment. Their largest massifs (Elnya, Osveyskoye, Yuhovichskoe, Golubickaya Puscha, Domzheritskoe et al.) are included in existing or projected reserves and national nature-sanctuaries. Belarusian fauna is presented by 453 species of vertebrates and more than 30 thousand species of invertebrates. Mammals are presented by 6 orders, of which insectivores include 10 species, bats - 16, predators - 16, duplicidentates - 2, rodents - 26, paridigitates - 6 species. There are 298 species of birds, of which 225 species build their nests at the country’s territory. 46 species of vertebrates are in the Red Data List of IUCN, the nature complexes of the republic play discrete role in preservation of these species: aurochs, lynx, European otter, European mink, aquatic warbler, great snipe, ferruginous duck, white-tailed eagle, corncrake, greater spotted eagle, sterlet, vendace etc. A modern network of especially protected areas is created for conservation of the biological and landscape diversity. On 1 January 2014 the network of special protected natural areas included 1213 objects (by 7 less than in 2012), including 1 reserve «Berezinsky Biosphere Reserve», 4 national parks («Belovezhskaya Pushcha», «Braslavskie ozera» «Pripyatskiy» and «Narochanskiy»), 85 national nature-sanctuaries, 248 local reservations, as well as 306 and 568 43 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals national and local natural monuments, respectively. The total area of special protected natural areas in 2013 amounted to 7.8% of the total area of the country. In comparison with 2012 the its total area increased by 46.0 thousand ha, mainly due to the increase of the local reservations area on 43.6 ha. At the same time, area of republican reserves decreased by 4.2 thousand ha [3]. There is a following structure of the total area of special protected natural areas in the territory of the country: in the Brest region (14%), Grodno (9.9%), Vitebsk (8.8%), Minsk (6.4%), Gomel (5.7%) and Mogilev (2.3%) [3]. Forest ecosystems make the largest contribution in the structure of special protected natural areas. According to the State Forest Inventory in 2013 special protected natural areas (SPNA) included 1369.3 thousand ha of forest fund. As in previous years, reserves accounts for the largest area of forest land. SPNA basis includes national areas, of which importance is recognized at the international level. Among them are the National Park of Belovezhskaya Pushcha (the monument of world heritage, transboundary biosphere reserve) and the Beresino Biosphere Reserve. The status of Ramsar site of international importance was given to the Olmansk Marshes, the Mid Pripyat, Prostyr, Kotra, Osveiskiy, Elnya, Zvanec Republican Landscape Sanctuaries as well as the Sporovsky Biological Reserve. Six specially protected natural areas have the status of important botanical areas, fourteen - are included in the list of areas of importance for the conservation of wild birds in Europe. The most important environmental problem for biological diversity conservation is the protection of rare and endangered species of plants and animals. According to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus the number of rare and endangered species of wild plants and animals are included in the Red Data Book of the Republic of Belarus or protected in accordance with international agreements of the Republic of Belarus. Their level in 2013 was a same as in 2012. 2.8 Population Sustainability of social and economic development of the country is determined by its population size and quality, labour potential, professional and qualification manpower balance, manpower needs, and its competitiveness at labour-market. As on 1 January 2014 the population was 9468 thousand, average population density was 46 persons per km2, urban population – 76.8%. Demographics trend is presented in table 2.9 [7]. 44 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Table 2.9 Demographics (as of January 1 for Each Year) Index Population, mln. persons 1991 г. 1996 г. 2001 г. 10,2 2014 10,0 9,6 9,5 9,5 9,5 9,5 9,5 9,5 9,5 Urban population 6,7 6,9 mln. persons (%) (66,1) (67,9) 7,0 (69,7) 7,1 (72,0) 7,1 (7,8) 7,1 (73,2) 7,1 (74,5) 7,1 (75,1) 7,1 (75,8) 7,2 (76,3) 7,3 (76,8) Natural migration, % -41,2 -51,3 --29,4 -26,0 -25,8 -29,1 -25,9 -10,6 -7,3 32,6 10,2 2006 г. 2008 г. 2009г. 2010 г. 2011г. 2012 г. 2013 г. -32,6 Belarusian population creates a market for goods and services whose production requires the use of fuel resources, wood and agricultural raw materials, which leads to the emission of greenhouse gases. Life-sustaining activity of population is accompanied by generation of solid domestic waste and water pollution, of which breakdown and treatment result in emission of greenhouse gases. In these ways, the population has a direct and indirect effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Population dynamic has “relatively positive” effect on these processes in the period 1990 - 2013. During this period the population decreased by 0.7 million pers., which may be considered as demand dumpling effect in the country. In some cases it had limited of increasing of municipal wastes, as well as the growth of production for domestic needs, and thus had contributed to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Over a period of last 20 years demographic crisis is observed in Belarus. First of all, it is shown by decline in birth rate, rise in mortality, and resulted in drop in population. Natural loss is caused by two factors: aggravation of social and economic crisis in mid 1990th and worsening of reproduction quality of age structure of population that resulted in birth decline and rise in mortality. The present tendency is typical for both rural and urban population. However, there is a growth of population in cities because of migration inflow. Urban population is characterized by high concentration. There are 1.9 million persons in Minsk (26.8 % of urban population). Five regional centers concentrate 26.7 % of urban population. There are 8 towns with population from 100 thousand up to 250 thousand, that is 15.6% of urban population. It is amounted 14 towns with population of 100.0 thousand and more and 197 small and medium urban settlements with population of less than 100,0 thousand per each in Belarus [2]. Negative demographic phenomena associated with the low birth rate resulted in reduction of the number of children and led to the so-called “down-processes in demographic aging”, when 45 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals the number of elderly people exceeds children and adolescents. At the same time a “top aging process” called was observed in 90th due to the relative increase elderly people in the age structure of the population the. According to the UN scale population as a whole is considered as old if its share of the total number of persons is more than 7% over 65 years. In Belarus in 2013 as in 2012 this value was 13.8%, thus almost in 2 times higher than this parameter. The average age of the population in 2013 accounted for 39.9 years, in 2012 - 39.8 years, in 2011 - 39.7 years, in 2010 - 39.6 years, in 2009 - 39.5 years, in 2008 - 39.3 years [2]. The influence of urbanization on change in greenhouse gases emission cannot be estimated unequivocally. On the one hand, rural population is the main consumer of firewood, peat bricks and other stove fuel used by individual households and is characterized by lower efficiency as compared with exploitation of city thermal power plants. Besides, production of household fuel for rural population is connected with negative impact on the sinks of greenhouse gases (forests, peat bogs). On the other hand, urban population use transport services more actively, have higher income rates, and economically urban population demand stimulate larger use of fuel resources and agricultural goods in the republic and as a consequence increase in emission of greenhouse gases. In 2013 occupied population was 4545.6 thousand persons against 5151 thousand persons in 1990 and 4443.6 in 2000, that is occupied population declined by 11.8% and 2,.3% respectively. Employment has changed. In the first half of 1990th there was an enlargement of service sector and reduction of portion of industry and construction, and in the second half of the 1990th an increase of population engaged in the service sector was accompanied by stabilization of employment level of the population engaged in industry and decrease of agricultural employment. There is a following distribution of the population by economic activity in 2013 (from the total employed population): industry - 25.2%, agriculture, hunting and forestry - 9.5%, construction - 8.0%, transport and communications - 7.5%, trade - 14.3%, education - 9.8%, other - 25.7% [1,10]. The labor force is the resource for sustainable development. Belarus has a significant labor potential. The labor force in 2012 reached 6.06 million pers. or 64.0% of the population in 2013 and has not changed significantly [8]. In modern terms the state policy’s aim is to preserve the capacity of the labor force and support maximal employment that results in a constantly low rate of registered unemployment as compared with EIT countries; this figure was 0,5% of economically active population of the country in 2013. 46 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals As a whole, the predicted decrease in the population of Belarus will create the preconditions for reduction of environmental stress. In view of inter-regional differences these maximum preconditions will be registered in Vitebsk and Mogilev and minimum will be - in Minsk and Brest regions. Contrast growth in the distribution of population at the territory of the country with concentration increase at the areas of large cities, on the one hand, and reduction of remote areas population, on the other hand, will act as a fillip for analogous changes in spatial load distribution on the environment. Upcoming expansion of the areas with very low population density within the country will complicate the practical use of natural-resources potential, but provide more favorable conditions to preserve biological and landscape diversity and form specially protected areas. 2.9 Economy At present Belarus is a country with economy in transition. In the period of 2001-2013 the economy of the Republic of Belarus after a long stagnation period developed sustainably despite an on-again crisis phenomena. In recent years there was a growth in GDP, as well as in industrial production, investments, and living standards of the population was improved. The table 2.10 shows that the country has a strong tendency of GDP growth despite the economic crisis of 2010-2013 [10]. Table 2.10. Production of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1995-2013 GDP in current prices, bln. rubles In comparable prices, % to the previous year GDP per capita, thousand rubles 1995 2000 1 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 65 067 164 476 297 158 527 385 637 784 121 403 9134 89,6 105,8 109,4 107,7 105,5 101,5 100,9 11909 9131 6733 17 331 31 368 55 724 67135 GDP breakdown has not changed much over a period from 2005 till 2013 (Figure 2.11) Figure 2.11. GDP Industrial Structure (at current prices, % to the Total) [1] Total GDP – from which: Agriculture, hunting and forestry Industry Construction Trade Transport and 1 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 100 100 100 100 100 8,4 9,2 8,3 8,5 7,9 31,1 6,7 9,3 8,1 27,2 9,6 12,1 7,6 30,9 6,6 15,3 7,3 30,1 7,4 14,0 7,5 27,2 9,8 12,3 8,2 Taken into account the denomination in 2000 (a reduction of 1000 times) 47 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals communications Other economic activities Net taxes on products 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 22,4 24,7 22,5 22,2 24,3 14,0 12,7 12,2 12,7 12,5 Development rate of the agricultural complex was lower because of the considerable influence of natural conditions of reproduction. Within the period from 2001 till 2013 a further deepening of specialization of agricultural production took place in the agricultural sector, organization and economic mechanism was improved, material and resource base was strengthened, unprofitable agricultural organizations were reformed with debt restructuring, cooperation and integration were developed. Belarus take the first place among the CIS countries by the rate of growth of agricultural production per capita. The population of Belarus in comparison with the large countries of the CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) is ensured better with meat and dairy products, eggs and potatoes. The maintenance of relatively high consumption standard of industrial goods was facilitated by state policy aimed at agricultural production support by means of economic subsidies. Today it has significant social importance. The trade including foreign is sustainable developed sector. The main foreign trade partners of Belarus are the Russian Federation, followed by the Netherlands, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania and others country. In 2012 mineral commodities (36.2%) dominated in the export structure, among which stand out potassium fertilizers (2.8 mln. T); chemical products (21.7%); goods of machine-building industry (17.9%). Principal imports are mineral commodities (39.4%) and first of all oil (21.5 mln. T) and natural gas (21.1 bln. m3); machinery, equipment and transport facilities (22.9%), as well as goods of chemical industry (12.4%) 2.10 Energy Fuel-and-energy sector includes extraction, transportation, storage, and primary processing of fuel, production and transportation of electricity and heat. Main source of greenhouse gases is a process of fuel burning. Carbon dioxide (СО2), carbon oxide (СО), nitric oxide (NO2), water (Н2О) and other substances of direct and indirect greenhouse gases ate emitted from fuel combustion. In Belarus, as in other countries, “Energy” sector is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and accounted for more than 60% of total emissions according to the 2012 GHG National Inventory. At present non-renewable energy sources such as natural gas, oil, coal, peat, blackes are mainly used for the production of electricity and thermal energy in our country, renewable (solar, 48 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals water, wind, biomass) are less used. Over a period from 1990 till 2013 the structure of fuel-andenergy resources used for energy industry has changed. Natural gas has become a dominated source of energy, having supplanted oil residue. The portion of coil used for heat development has decreased. Firewood, wood wastes are leading among local fuels. Specific character of Belarus is that considerable volume of peat and peat bricks are used for energy supply. Fuel resources are mainly used to develop heat and electric power, and as a process fuel in industry. At fuel consumption the portion of population’s consumption has increased which is connected to the housing stock enlargement. Additional source of greenhouse gases at the fuel-and-energy sector is the escape and emission of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) during transportation and storage of gas and fluid fuel, oil-processing. Transportation is mainly carried out via pipelines (total length is 7530 km) and oil pipelines (2983 km), as well as via oil products pipeline (751 km). Main sections of pipelines are in operation for more than 30 years and there are defects in some of them. Oil-products are produced at two oil-processing plants. Intermediate distribution of oil products is chiefly carried out by railway transportation to petroleum storage depots and final - by vehicle transportation to filling stations. The Republic of Belarus exceeds the average indicator of consumption of fuel and energy resources per capita in comparison with other countries; however, this indicator is lower than in the European Union countries. The consumption of fuel and energy resources per capita in 2011 for Belarus accounted for 3.11 tons of oil equivalent per capita (Figure 2.9). Figure 2.9 – Fuel and energy resources consumption of per capita in the countries in 2011 [10] It should be noted that the Belarusian economy is characterized by a high level of energy 49 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals intensity of GDP, therefore the country has adopted series of programs aimed to reduce of this factor, and as a result of the implementation of energy efficiency measures energy intensity of GDP in 2013 decreased by 69% compared to 2005 (Figure 2.10). Also, the Republic of Belarus has adopted series of laws aimed at the development of renewable energy. The contribution of renewable energy sources in the total energy production is negligible (approximately 5.6%), but has increasing tend (Table 2.12). Table 2.12 - Contribution of renewable energy sources in the gross consumption of fuel and energy resources, % 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4,5 5,0 4,9 5,0 5,4 5,0 5,6 Figure 2.10. The energy intensity of gross domestic product (as a percentage of 2005). [10] The main direction for development of renewable energy sources is the restoration and construction of small hydropower plants. According to the state cadastre of renewable energy sources in Belarus there are 40 hydroelectric power plants, including small hydropower plants. Their total capacity accounted for 14.2 MW and annual electricity generation is 65.36 million KWh. According to data on 10 September 2013 277 facilities, including 14 biogas plants, 14 solar, 3 – geothermal plants, 199 plants operated on wood and other types of biomass, 40 plants for the hydropower energy, 7 wind turbines are operated in the country. Their total capacity is 397.5925 MW. The maximum possible amount of electricity that could be generated is 519 440.5 thousand KWh/year, of thermal energy - 2732 558.5 Gcal/year. The maximum 50 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals possible reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from these facilities is 1478 804.7 tons/year. The maximum possible fuel equivalent savings is 458 538.4 toe annually. 133 juridical entities and individual entrepreneurs have renewable energy facilities. Also, the State Cadastre of Renewable Energy Sources includes data of potential renewable energy facilities, and the total number of facilities is 115, including, solar - 2, wind energy - 83, the geothermal - 2, the hydropower energy -13, wood, and other types of biomass 6, biogas energy - 9. The installed capacity will be 184.96 MW. The maximum possible amount of electricity generation will be 1 251 516 thousand KWh/year, heat - 123 865.85 Gcal/year. The maximum possible reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from these facilities will be 367 228.21 tons/year. Increasing of renewable energy sources use the stress on environmental and climate will decrease subsequently. 2.11 Transport Transport is the second largest source of greenhouse gases after the heat and electricity production. The functioning of transport complex is followed by CO2, CO, CH4, N2O, NOx and NMVOCs emission. Belarusian transport complex encompasses railway, auto, inner water and air transport. The main modes of transport are railway and road transport. In the period between 2000 and 2013, the passenger turnover by all modes of transport reduced by 13.4% and the freight turnover increase half again as. The structure of passenger traffic by all modes of transport substantially changed. Thus the share of railway transport in the total passenger turnover reduced from 6% in 2000 to 4% in 2013, while the share of bus and air transport increased from 53.8% and 0.01% to 58% and 0.007%, respectively, over the same period. In the structure of cargo turnover in 2013 the rail transport amounted to 34.2% and motor transport - 17.9% [1, 3]. 2.12 Industry Greenhouse gases are emitted in industry as a by-product of certain technological manufacturing cycle. Industry branches generating greenhouse gases of technological origin are metallurgy, machinery, and metalworking (electric smelting, rolling and pipe production, foundry casting work, production and repair of refrigerating engineering), petrochemical industry (ammonia, nitric acid, caprolactam and ethylene production), industry of construction materials (cement, lime production), woodworking and pulpand-paper industry, glass industry. Greenhouse gases are formed as a result of fuel burning in process furnaces to reach high-grade heat and during chemical and thermal transformation of materials. In the above processes CO2, 51 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals CO, N2O, NOx, NMVOCs and hydro fluorocarbons (HFC) are formed. The structure of industrial production of the Republic of Belarus in 2013 was as follows: manufacturing industry accounted for 90.4%, mining - 1.6%, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - 8.0%. The detailed structure of industrial production is presented in the Table 2.12. 2.13 Agriculture and Forestry Main non-energy source of the greenhouse gases is agriculture. This sector is the largest second in greenhouse gas emissions. It accounts for 26.2% of the total national emissions of greenhouse gases. The main source of greenhouse gases emissions in agriculture is livestock, where greenhouse gases (mainly methane) are emitted in the process of enteric fermentation and manure management. Main sources of the greenhouse emission in farming are organic and mineral fertilizers application into soil, biologically nitrogen fixation, nitrogen leaching and runn-off, crop residues and cultivation of organic soils. During the above processes N2O, CO2, CH4 are released. Thus, key drivers to the trend of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture are livestock population, crop production, as well as the application of mineral and organic fertilizers are. During 1990-2012 total decrease in livestock population is observed in the Republic of Belarus (table 2.13). The reason of such decline is economic change after disintegration of the Soviet Union, and as a result feed deficit in the country. During USSR-times feeds for cattle was imported from Kazakhstan, however, after its disintegration import prices was high and livestock was slaughtered. Since 1995 these trends become more smoothly. The sharp decline in the number of swine in 2013 was due to the epidemic of African swine cholera in the country. 52 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Table 2.12. Structure of industrial production of the Republic of Belarus, 2005 - 2013. Mining Tobacco, food and beverages production Textile and clothing production Leather and footwear production Wood production Pulp and paper industry. Publishing Coke, oil products and nuclear materials Chemical production Rubber and plastic products Mineral and other non-metallic products Metal industry Machinery and equipment production Electrical and optical equipment production Transport and equipment production Other industry sectors Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 2005 2,5 17,6 4,0 0,9 1,9 1,9 19,0 8,8 2,5 4,0 5,9 9,4 2007 1,6 17,0 3,6 0,8 1,8 1,9 19,0 7,8 3,5 4,6 6,9 9,5 2008 1,5 16,7 3,3 0,7 1,7 1,7 20,2 9,9 3,1 4,9 7,2 9,2 2009 2,0 20,3 3,4 0,8 1,6 1,8 18,2 8,5 3,2 5,2 6,3 9,4 2010 0,8 20,1 3,4 0,8 1,5 1,9 17,5 9,0 3,5 5,2 7,0 9,1 2011 1,5 17,6 3,1 0,8 1,3 1,6 21,2 11,5 3,6 4,2 6,9 7,9 2012 1,4 18,5 2,9 0,7 1,3 1,4 20,5 11,8 3,7 4,4 6,6 9,4 2013 1,6 22,4 3,2 0,8 1,7 1,6 15,8 7,7 4,0 5,5 6,7 9,7 3,8 4,0 3,6 3,6 3,8 3,5 3,5 3,9 5,9 2,1 6,8 2,4 6,1 2,4 4,1 2,3 4,5 2,3 5,5 2,3 4,5 2,3 4,5 2,6 9,8 8,9 7,7 9,3 9,6 7,6 7,1 8,1 53 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Table 2.13 - Livestock population 1990-2013 Thousand of Heads Year mln. heads Cattle Swine Swine Horses Poultry 1990 7166 5204 510 219 49.8 1991 6975 5051 445 217 50.6 1992 6577 4703 424 212 51.7 1993 6221 4308 381 215 48.9 1994 5851 4181 323 215 33.2 1995 5403 4005 284 220 30.9 1996 5054 3895 262 229 26.4 1997 4855 3715 214 232 27.4 1998 4802 3686 186 233 27.5 1999 4686 3698 162 229 28.1 2000 4326 3566 150 221 27.4 2001 4221 3431 154 217 27.4 2002 4085 3372 149 209 26.2 2003 4005 3329 137 202 25.2 2004 3924 3287 126 192 24,5 2005 3963 3407 125 181 25,1 2006 3980 3545 121 168 28,5 2007 4007 3598 124 147 29,4 2008 4131 3705 126 137 31,2 2009 4151 3782 127 125 34,1 2010 4151 3887 124 113 37,5 2011 4247 3989 125 100 39,9 2012 4367 4243 133 92 42 2013 4321 3267 131 82 45.7 The structure of crops in 2013 slightly changed in comparison with previous years. Compared to 2005, the proportion of cereals and leguminous crop increased from 42.3% to 45.8%; proportion of industrial crops increased twice from 5.8% to 10.6%. At the same time, the proportion of forage crops increased from 41.8% in 2005 to 37.1% in 2013. The proportion of the traditional Belarusian potato increased from 8.5% in 2005 to 5.4% in 2013. The yield of cereals and leguminous crops decreased from 27.2 quintals per hectare in 1990 to 19.4 quintals per hectare in 2000, and then gradually increased in 2005 and accounted 54 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals for 28.1 quintals per hectare, and in 2013 increased to 29.7 quintals. The similar trend is observed for other crops (flax, sugar beet, oilseed rape, potatoes, vegetables) is similar. The increase in crops yield was mainly caused by growth in of fertilization level. Production of main agricultural products was also gradually increased, the population of the country is well ensured by them. The steady trend of reduction of the main sources of greenhouse gases is observed due to some decline in agricultural production. 2.14 Waste Waste Sector is one of the significantl sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from Waste sector amounted to 7.0% of national emissions in 2012. Steady growth in the volume of municipal waste is observed in Belarus over the past 16 years (Figure 2.11). Index of specific formation of solid municipal waste during this period increased from 0.485 kg/person per day to 1.5 kg/person per day, i.e. almost by 3 times and reached the European Union value (0.85-1.7 kg/person per day). The proportion of polymeric materials and packaging waste, as well as glass increased in municipal waste during the last years [3]. The volume of municipal solid waste in Belarus in 2013 amounted 5145 thousand tons. Municipal solid waste includes wastes of consumption and wastes of production specified in the approved list of Ministry of Municipal Services of the Republic of Belarus. In 2013 3 414 thousand tons of wastes of consumption are generated in the country, which amounted to major of municipal waste (66%). Figure 2.11 - Dynamics of municipal waste generation in the Republic of Belarus in 1997-2013 One of the most important problems in the waste management is their recycling. 55 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals Mechanisms for the involvement of secondary material resources into the economy are as follows in Belarus: − receiving center system (procurement) at Belkoopsoyuz, concern “Belresursy”, Ministry of Municipal Services; − the separate collection by the population; − sorting station of municipal waste. Based on dada on 01.01.2014 the 894 centers for waste separation of total capacity of 450 tons/year, including 798 stationary centers and 96 mobile, are registered. Development of separation station allows fully integrating into the existing scheme of collection, removal and disposal of public waste, as well as allows to technify the process of waste separation, gives possibility to install equipment for pre-treatment of secondary material resources (cleaning, grinding, presses, etc.), to seal sorted waste to be disposed of. Separation and transfer stations operate in these towns: Pinsk, Polotsk, Mozyr, Puhovichi, Kobrin and Mogilev. Separation of secondary material resources were established in 81 districts. Waste recycling enterprises were built in Gomel, Mogilev, Novopolotsk, Brest and Baranovichi in order to more efficient recovery of secondary material resources from municipal waste. Available waste recycling enterprises can recycle 10% of municipal waste, the rest are disposed in landfills. It is planned that waste recycling enterprises will be built in the short term in Grodno, Minsk, Vitebsk, Borisov, Bobruisk and Soligorsk. Series of programs, including measures to increase the use of renewable energy sources, that is the adoption of special systems and facilities for the capture and utilization of landfill gas, the development and adoption of new technologies for waste disposal, were adopted in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Waste sector in the country. The construction of the facility “Facility for degassing of landfill «Trostenets» was realized. The total capacity of is 1MW. The facility for degassing of landfill «Novo Mileevka» in Mogilev district with a total generating capacity of 1 MW was put into operation. Series of programs and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the Waste sector was planned for period 2011-2015. 56 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System 3 INFORMATION ON GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS, INCLUDING INFORMATION ON NATIONAL SYSTEM AND NATIONAL REGISTRY OF CARBON UNITS This chapter contains information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, which was performed for the preparation of the 2012 National GHG Inventory Report of the Republic of Belarus and submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat in 2014. Summary Common Reporting Format (CRF) tables are provided in the Annex 1. Also, this chapter includes information on the institutional arrangements of the national GHG inventory system of the Republic of Belarus and the National Registry of Carbon Units. 3.1 General information on GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus Total GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent excluding net CO2 from LULUCF accounted for 89 283.33 Gg and since 1990 (139 151.23 Gg) decreased by 35.8% in 2012. Such reduction in GHG emissions is primarily caused by a rapid fall in the period 1990-1995 due to economic crisis in the country after disintegration of the Soviet Union and, as a result, leads to decreasing in production and fuel consumption. From after 1995 GHG emissions scaled up due to increasing of production, fuel consumption and waste generation volume, however, emissions have a smoothed tendency (table 3.2 and figure 3.1). Such tendency of GHG emissions along with increasing in production in the country after 1995 is caused by a gradual change in the structure of fuel consumption, adoption of resource and energy saving technologies. In comparison with 2011 (87 499.56 Gg) GHG emissions increased by 2.0%, first of all, due to increasing in emissions in Energy sector (by 3.6%) which is produced the largest amount of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus – 61.9%. Agriculture is the second sector in amount of GHG emissions and accounted for 26.2% of total GHG emissions. GHG emissions in Waste and Industrial Processes sectors accounted for 7.0% and 4.8% of total national emissions, respectively. 0.1% of GHG emissions were from the Solvent and Other Product. The key drivers influencing the trends of GHG emissions by sectors are described below. By gas component the main greenhouse gas in the Republic of Belarus is carbon dioxide (CO2) that contributes in 2012 64.4% of the total GHG emissions (excluding net CO2 from LULUCF), then followed by nitrous oxide (N2O) – 18,4% and methane (CH4) – 17,2%, HFCs and SH6 accounted for 0.003%. During the period 1990-2012 carbon dioxide emissions have decreased by 44.6%, nitrous 57 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System oxide - by 18.5%, methane emissions have increased by - 1.1% (Table 2.3). Figure 3.1 – GHG emission trends for the period 1990 -2012 by sectors, Gg CO2 equivalent 3.1.1 GHG emissions trends by gases In the time series context it should be noted a significant reduction in emissions in CO2 equivalent in 2012 by 35.8% compared to 1990, primarily, due to decreasing of CO2 emissions in the Energy sector by 46.8%. Such decrease of emission is caused by definite reduction of production and adoption of energy saving policy in the national economy, as well as changes in the structure of fuel consumption. N2O emissions decreased by 18.5% for this period and, in turn, CH4 emissions increased by 1.1% (table 3.3 and figure 3.2). Such gases as HFCs, PFCs and SF6 are not produced and not used in the production in the republic. They are coming to the republic mainly from equipment. Due to their trace usage these gases have insignificant effect to the total GHG emissions. 58 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Figure 3.2 – Structure of GHG emissions The trends of indirect GHG emissions are provided in the table 3.1. Table 3.1 – Indirect GHG (including net CO2 from LULUCF) in 1990-2012, Gg Gas NOx СО NMVOC SO2 1990 335,96 1527,22 301,46 1083,34 1995 170,96 591,08 132,93 459,08 2000 148,55 426,56 141,22 156,38 2005 167,98 530,18 144,95 100,96 2010 173,75 599,66 190,21 109,56 2012 189,92 681,34 189,56 146,86 Trend 1990- 2012, %. -43,47 -55,39 -37,12 -86,44 As is seen from the table, total indirect GHG emissions are negligible. For the period of 1990-2012 there was significant reduction its emissions, in particular, SO2 – by 86.4%, СО – by 57.4%, nitrogen oxide and NMVOC – by 43.5% and 37.1% respectively. The indirect GHG emissions have unsustainable trends for the last years. It is caused with such economy sectors as Energy, Industrial Processes and Solvents and Other Products Use. 59 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Carbon dioxide (CO2) Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas in Belarus. Total CO2 emissions (excluding net emissions/removals in LULUCF) in 1990 amounted to 103 806.9Gg or 74.6% of the total GHG emissions. By 2012 CO2 emissions decreased by 46.6% to 57 490.7 Gg and amounted to 64.4% of total GHG emissions in 2012 (table 3.3). CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the transport sector, energy industries and manufacture, as well as commercial, agricultural and residential sectors are the main sources of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus. They contributed in 1990 and 2012 96.5% and 92.7 of total CO2 emissions in the Republic Belarus respectively (figure 3.3). It can therefore be said that changes of CO2 emissions after 1990 are mainly caused by the changes in GDP structure due to increasing in contribution of less energy-intensive industries, transition from coal and fuel oil to natural gas; more intensive use of biomass in municipal and industrial sectors; as well as adoption energy saving technologies in recent years. Figure 3.3 – Carbon dioxide emission structure 60 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Table 3.2 – GHG emission trends for the period of 1990-2012, Gg CO2 equivalent Trend 2011-2012, % Contribution in the Total emissions in 2012, %* 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Trend 1990-2012, % 102 242,80 57 259,52 52 684,07 55 311,53 56 441,59 53 380,41 55 303,82 -45,91 3,60 61,94 Industrial Processes Solvents and Other Products Use 3 614,68 2 035,73 2 604,72 3 484,65 4 092,17 4 127,91 4 274,32 18,25 3,55 4,79 74,40 62,33 76,04 69,19 122,44 61,69 64,48 -13,33 4,52 0,07 Agriculture 30 644,62 21 344,50 20 844,70 20 688,10 22 586,57 23 442,58 23 371,52 -23,73 -0,30 26,18 Waste 2 574,73 2 137,64 2 955,57 4 620,24 6 183,13 6 486,97 6 269,18 143,49 -3,36 7,02 Total (Excluding LULUCF) LULUCF (net emission/removals) 139 151,23 82 839,72 79 165,10 84 173,72 89 425,90 87 499,56 89 283,33 -35,84 2,04 100,00 -28 574,44 -31 221,80 -30 902,78 -26 209,98 -30 179,18 -29 233,59 -25 500,74 -10,76 -12,77 Total with LULUCF * - Excluding LULUCF 110 576,79 51 617,93 48 262,32 57 963,74 59 246,72 58 265,97 63 782,58 -42,32 9,47 Energy Table 3.3 – GHG emissions by gases, Gg CO2 equivalent 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Carbon dioxide 103 806,85 57 599,77 53 319,28 56 669,77 58 297,96 55 380,85 57 490,69 Contribution in the Total emissions in 2012, %* 64,39 Methane 15 217,16 11 704,96 11 421,85 13 116,46 15 221,89 15 476,30 15 390,54 17,24 1,14 20 127,22 13 532,14 14 414,22 14 359,83 15 890,52 16 640,04 16 399,83 18,37 -18,52 9,75 27,67 15,52 2,36 2,27 0,003 -20,50 79 165,10 84 173,72 89 425,90 87 499,56 89 283,33 Gas Nitrous oxide * HFCs, SF6 2,85 Total (Excluding 139 151,23 82 839,72 LULUCF) * 1995 is a base year for reporting of HFCs, SF6 emissions 61 Trend, 19902012, % -44,62 -35,84 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Methane (CH4) Methane (CH4) is the second gas in contribution to total GHG emissions of the Republic of Belarus. In 1990 emissions amounted to 15 217.2 Gg in CO2 or 10,9% of total GHG emissions. By 2012 CН4 emission increased by 1.1% to 15 390,5 Gg in CO2 equivalent and accounted for 17.2% of total GHG emissions. Figure 3.4 – Methane emission structure The main source of CH4 emissions is enteric fermentation, degradation of domestic waste, as well as natural gas leakage from transport and distribution system. Significant decrease of the methane emission is observed for emissions from enteric fermentation in the agriculture sector. In 2012 these emissions amounted to 6 605.6 Gg in CO2 equivalent, that is by 33.7% lower compared to 1990. Such trend is associated with the livestock population reduction compared to 1990. CH4 fugitive emissions from natural gas and the degradation of domestic waste have increased compared to 1990 by 29.7% and 157.5% respectively. Such rise in emissions is associated with an increase in natural gas transmission through a system of transportation and distribution, and with increasing volumes of municipal waste due to increasing level of production and consumption of modern commodities and food. 62 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Nitrous oxide (N2O) Total N2O emissions in 1990 amounted to 20 27.2 Gg in CO2 equivalent, or 14.5% of total GHG emissions. By 2012, N2O emissions decreased by 18.5% to 16 399.8 Gg in CO2 equivalent and accounted for 18.4% of total GHG emissions. Figure 3.5 – Nitrous oxide structure The main sources are the agricultural soils and manure management systems in agriculture, wastewater treatment, fuels combustion in the energy sector. These two categories cover 97.5% of total national N2O emissions of. Such decrease of emissions in 1990 is observed in both categories. This is due to reduce of using of mineral fertilizers, as well as a decrease in livestock population. Fluoridated Gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) Emissions of fluorinated gases in the Republic of Belarus are small compared with emissions of other greenhouse gases. In accordance with paragraph 8 article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol, 1995 was chosen as a base year for reporting of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride emissions. In 1995, emissions of fluorinated gases amounted to 2.9 Gg in CO2 equivalent, or 0.003% of total national GHG emissions. By 2012, emissions had increased to 2.3 Gg CO2 equivalent and amounted to 0.003% of national emissions. The main source of PFCs emissions is the consumption of these gases in the stationary refrigeration equipment. Sulfur hexafluoride is used mainly in industry for the production of semiconductors and packing the electrical equipment. 63 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System 3.1.2 Tends of GHG emissions/removals by source categories 1 Energy Sector In 2012, a significant reduction of GHG emissions in CO2 equivalents by 45.9% compared to the base year of 1990 is observed in the Energy" sector. In general, the trend of reducing GHG emissions in the sector is similar to the general trend of national GHG emissions (Figure 3.2 and Figure 3.6) where there is a considerable decrease in emissions from 1990 to 1995 due to recession in the economy in the country. Further fluctuations in GHG emissions in the Energy sector are mainly caused by changes in GDP structure (an increase in the share of less energy-intensive industries, such as services and trade in 2012 compared with 1990), the active adoption of energysaving technologies at almost all sectors, the transition from using coal and oil to natural gas, more intensive use of biomass in residential and industrial sectors. Energy industry is a major source of GHG emissions where in 2012contributed 51.8% of the total emissions in the sector and 32.1% of the national total GHG emissions. During the reporting period, emissions in this category decreased by 56.1% due to the reduction of the gross fuel consumption, as well as changes in the structure of its consumption in the country. Emissions from fuel combustion in the manufacture and construction sector in 2012 amounted to 9 924.7 Gg in CO2 equivalent (17.9% and 11.1% of the sectoral and national total emissions, respectively). In 2012 GHG emissions increased by 37.1% in comparison with 1990 which is caused by the construction growth rate since 2002. Emissions from fossil fuels combustion in central heating and water heating in commercial, agricultural and residential sectors in 2012 are accounted for 7 436.6Gg CO2 equivalent, or 8.1% of national total emissions and 13.4% of sectoral emissions. This is by 49.7% lower than in 1990 (14 792 Gg CO2 eq.). Emissions in this category significantly depend on climatic and economic conditions. In the Republic of Belarus biomass is mainly used for house heating in countryside. This category also includes emissions from equipment used in agriculture and forestry. 64 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Figure 3.6 – GHG emission trends Gg in CO2 equivalent in Energy sector Emissions from transport in 2012 amounted to 7 217.2 Gg in CO2 equivalent, or 8.1% of total emissions and 13.1% of sectoral emissions, that is by 44.8% less than emissions in the transport sector in 1990, that was 13 074.0 Gg in CO2 equivalents. For this category also reduction in emissions is observed due to additional above mentioned reasons, such as changes of volume of natural gas transportation through the territory of the Republic of Belarus, significant prices growth of motor fuels and as result decreasing in purchasing power. Emissions from other sources include emissions from fossil fuels consumed for the needs of communication services. They are very small and in 2012 amounted to only 457.8 Gg in CO2 equivalent, or 0.5% of national GHG emissions. Fugitive emissions include natural gas leakages at industrial and power plants, in residential and commercial sectors, as well as emissions from venting and flaring of natural gas/ In 2012 emissions from this category amounted to 1 602.5 Gg in CO2 equivalent or 1.8% of national total GHG emissions. 2 Industrial Processes sector In 2012, emissions from Industrial Processes amounted to 4 274.3Gg CO2 eq. or 4,8% of national total emissions, and were by 18.3% higher than the emissions from this source category in 1990, which amounted to 3 614.68 thousand tons in CO2 equivalents. 65 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Figure 3.7 – GHG emission trends Gg in CO2 equivalent in Industrial Processes sector The GHG emissions trend has changed during the reporting period. Minimum value was recorded in 1995 (2 035.7 Gg) as a result of a general economic recession in 90’s. Since 1995, emissions have begun to rise gradually, but from 1999 to 2001, there was a decline, caused by the decrease in cement and lime production. Over the following years, emissions from industry have been steadily rising, due to an overall increase in production levels in the country. Most of GHG emissions were from the following categories: cement production – 51.1% in the sector, ammonia production – 30/8% and lime production – 13.0%. 3 Solvents and Other Products Use sector Solvents and Other Products Use sector contributed minimal part of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus – 0.1% of national total emissions. This sector accounts emissions of non-methane volatile organic carbons (NMVOC) from solvents and other products use in production and refining of chemicals, as well as includes N2O emissions from nitric acid used for medicine purposes. Total emissions in CO2 equivalent in 2012 reduced by 13.3% compare to 1990, mainly, due to decreasing of volume of nitric acid used for medicine purposes. 66 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System 4 Agriculture sector Agriculture sector is a second sector in amount of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus. Emissions from this sector in 2012 accounted for 26.2% of national total GHG emissions. From 1990 to 2012 there was reduction of emissions by 23.4% in the agricultural sector due to decreasing of agricultural production, mainly to livestock products. It should be also noted that changes in livestock population and its structure of herd, changes in amount of fertilizers applied are driving to overall trend of GHG emissions in agriculture sector. During the transition period to new economic relations from 1990 to 1995 in the republic there was a rapid drop in livestock population and harvested products, as well as fertilizers application. After 1995 emissions had more smoothed trend. Figure 3.8 – GHG emission trends Gg in CO2 equivalent in Agriculture sector The major sources in the national total GHG emissions are the following categories: 4A Enteric Fermentation from livestock – 7.4% and 4 D. Agricultural Soils – 15.7%. In 2012 there was decreasing in GHG emissions in all categories of agricultural sector compared to 1990: 4A Enteric Fermentation – by 33.7%, 4B Manure Management – by 33.9% and 4 D. Agricultural Soils – by 15.3%. 67 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System 5 Land Use, Land Use change and Forestry sector Land Use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF) is a net removal sector in the Republic of Belarus. Category 5 A Forest Lands, in particular sub-category 5 A 1 Forest Lands Remaining Forest Lands makes the greatest contribution to the GHG absorption. During the reporting period 1990-2012 there was decreasing Net emissions/removals by 10.8% in the Republic of Belarus. Figure 3.9 – Trends of net CO2 emission/removals in LULUCG, Gg in CO2 equivalent Croplands account of GHG emissions and absorption on lands under perennial crops, as well as emissions from liming application to soils. Under Wetlands are considered lands used for peat mining. 6 Waste sector Сектор 6 «Отходы» Total GHG emissions in Waste sector in 2012 amounted to 6 269.2 Gg CO2 equivalent or 7.0% of the total GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus (excluding net emissions/removals in LULUCF). CH4 emissions contribute major part of emissions in the sector and amounted to 95.7% of emissions in the sector. In 2012, emissions in Waste sector exceeded by 143.49% compared to baseline of emissions in 1990. This significant increase in GHG emissions compared to the base year are caused by the growing of volume of solid waste associated with the development modern domestic commodities and food products, increasing of their consumption. However, it should be noted that methane emissions from solid waste in 2012 decreased compared to 2011 by 3.63%, due to the reduction of 68 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System solid waste disposed, which in turn is connected with the improvement of municipal solid waste separation and recycling system, and the reclaiming of secondary material resources. Figure 3.10 – GHG emission trends Gg in CO2 equivalent in Waste sector Memo Item - International Bunkers GHG emissions from combustion of jet fuels used for international airlines which excluded from the total of emission and reported as memo item according to IPCC Guidelines are accounted under this category. Considering the geographical location the Republic of Belarus doesn’t have access to the sea and international marine transportation is not occurred in the country. Figure 3.11 – GHG emission trends from international bunkers 69 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System The highest value of GHG emissions was observed in 1990. In 2012, total emissions amounted to 236.48 Gg in CO2equivalent. Emission trend depends on fuel consumption on international flights. In GHG emissions from international aviation by gases carbon dioxide is dominated and contributed in 2012 99.1% of total emissions in the category. Emissions of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in 2012 amounted to 0.01% and 0.89%, respectively. CO2 Emissions from Biomass According to IPCC Guidelines CO2 emissions from biomass combustion are reported as memo item and not included to the national total emission. As result CO2 emissions from biomass combustion are accounted separately from other fuels and amounted to 5 102.77 Gg in CO2 equivalent. This fuels type in the Republic of Belarus include firewood for heating, waste wood, timbers of destroyed old buildings, ties. 3.2 National GHG Inventory System The main legal documents regulating the inventory and the preparation of GHG inventories in the Republic of Belarus are: 1. - Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus of 10.04.2006, N485 “On Approval of the Regulations on the Procedure of the State Inventory of Anthropogenic Source Emissions and Greenhouse Gases Sinks Absorption” 2. This Regulation specified the procedure for the preparation of the state inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases. Preparation of the state inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases is delegated to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus (hereinafter - the Ministry of Natural Resources). GHG inventory is prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources on the basis of the initial data provided by the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Architecture and Construction, Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, the Ministry of Transport and Communications, the Ministry of Health, the State Property Committee, Belarusian State Concern for Oil and Chemistry, and other government bodies. Para. 5 of the resolution approves an exhaustive list of information required by the Ministry 2 National Law Registry of the Republic of Belarus, 2006, #59, 5/22174. 70 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System of Natural Resources which are provided by the above mentioned authorities on no-charge basis. Preparation of GHG inventory includes: – Collection of initial data from governmental authorities and other organisations;; – Analysis of initial data; – Estimation of emissions from sources and absorption by sinks of GHG; – Preparation of the State GHG Inventory Report; – Data base and archivation management. 2. - Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 4.05.2006, N585 “On Approval of the Regulations on National Greenhouse Gas Inventory System” 3. This legal act defines the organization and functioning of the National greenhouse gas inventory system and distributes to the list of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. According to this act the Ministry of Natural Resources is responsible for the coordination and functioning of the greenhouse gas inventory. Cooperation of the governmental authorities, other organisations and the Ministry of Natural Resources on the inventory system is determined according with the Regulations on the Regulations on the Procedure of the State Inventory of Anthropogenic Source Emissions and Greenhouse Gases Sinks Absorption, approved by the Council of Ministers on April 10, 2006 № 485. Information exchange on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases is carried out under obligation condition and free of charge. Information transfer to international organisations is performed according to the international agreements and Law of the Republic of Belarus. Информационный обмен о выбросах и поглощении парниковых газов осуществляется на условиях обязательности и безвозмездности. The Ministry of Natural Resources for the organization of inventory of greenhouse gases: – organizes the collection, processing, storage and analysis of information on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases, preparation of the State Cadastre and Databases on emissions and removals of greenhouse gases, preparation of national communications on climate change; – ensures development of state, sectoral, regional programmes and measures aimed to reduce of GHG emissions and increase of its absorption, improvement of methodologies to estimate GHG emissions; – implements other activities under by Law. 3 National Law Registry of the Republic of Belarus, 2006, #73, 5/22273. 71 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System 3. - Order of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment #417 of 29.12.2005 on the Appointment of RUE Bel SRC “Ecology” as a GHG Inventory Centre. RUE Bel SRC «Ecology» designate as a GHG Inventory Centre for the preparation of GHG inventory and national Communications in order to meet commitments under para. 1 Article 5 of Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. Within its responsibilities RUE Bel SRC “Ecology” sends requests on initial data through the Ministry of Natural Resources to the relevant ministries and authorities (Resolution of Council Ministers from 10.04.2006 #485 «On Approval of the Regulations on the Procedure of the State Inventory of Anthropogenic Source Emissions and Greenhouse Gases Sinks Absorption»). Preparation of GHG inventory includes activity data collection, selection of an appropriate method and emission factors, estimation of GHG emissions and removals, uncertainty assessment, quality control and quality assurance activities (QA/QC). Thus, a legal mechanism to ensure preparation of GHG inventory on an annual basis, its revision according to UNFCCC requirements is established in the country. Ministry of Natural Resources is the coordinating body that ensures functioning of national GHG inventory system, timely collection of activity data, as well as submission National Inventory Report (NIR) to the UNFCCC Secretariat. National Statistical Committee, as well as other responsible ministries and departments, provides for the preparation of inventory activity data related to GHG emissions on no charge and an annual basis. RUE Bel SRC “Ecology” under the supervision of the Ministry of Natural Resources and according to activity data collected prepares GHG inventory, estimates GHG emissions and removals and prepares NIR, including CRF tables. Once a final version of NIR approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources it is submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat. The following figure shows Mechanism for the GHG inventory preparation in the Republic of Belarus. 72 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System Government of the Republic of Belarus National Statistical Committee UNFCCC Secretariat RUE SRC “Ecology” Initial Data Regional Statistical Committee’s Agencies Business Entities Ministries and Entities of the Republic of Belarus Final information on GHG inventory Figure 3.12 – Mechanism for the GHG inventory preparation in the Republic of Belarus Detailed information of national inventory system is provided in the 2012 National GHG Inventory Report. 3.3 Information on National Registry of Carbon Units Maintenance of a National Register of Carbon Units in the Republic of Belarus is based on the following legal documents: • Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on 25.08.2006 #1077 “On the National Register of carbon units of the Republic of Belarus”; • Order of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus on 22.01.2007 # 4 “On Approval of the procedure for development and maintenance of the National Register of Carbon Units of the Republic of Belarus”. The operator of the National Registry of the Republic of Belarus is RUE Bel SRC “Ecology” supervised by the Ministry of Natural Resources. National Registry is physically located on servers with the following characteristics: two servers with two processor Intel Xeon 3.6 GHz, 3 Gb RAM, two hard drives SCSI 72,8 Gb, connected in a RAID 1+0 array and 1 server with similar characteristics, except for RAM, which is 2 Gb. Two more powerful servers are connected via fiber optic cable to the storage HP MSA1000, which consists of 6 hard drives Ultra320 SCSI to 72,8 Gb, connected in a RAID 5 array, and the sixth disc is in the Hot Spare, that is, at a failure of one of the hard drives, it will be automatically 73 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus National GHG Inventory System put into use, thus replacing the non-working ones. Those two servers are connected to a backup device HP Digital Data Storage DAT72 via SCSI cable. All servers and equipment are connected to two HP R3000XR UPS for the power backup. To access data from the Internet the domain www.registry.climate-by.com is registered. When addressing this url on the Internet, the query is redirected to a server which is physically located inside the RUE Belarusian Scientific Research Center «Ecology», so the confidential data contained in the registry database are located not on the remote hosting companies, but directly in a secured room in the RUE Belarusian Scientific Research Center «Ecology», that significantly increases the reliability of data storage and protects server hardware against unauthorized access. It should be noted that although the Republic of Belarus implemented a range of activities to start registry of carbon units, however, since Belarus has not been included in Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC in its validity period 2008-2012, work on maintenance of national registry of carbon units was discontinued prior to the signing of a new climate agreement. 74 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4 4.1 POLICIES AND MEASURES The legal basis of the development and implementation of national policies and measures, monitoring of their implementation Belarus has established and operates a vertically-oriented structure of the hierarchy of normative legal acts, including acts in the field of climate impact. Legal acts of the Republic of Belarus are given in a single system through their coordination and the definition of the hierarchy of legal acts (Figure 4.1). Figure 4.1 - Hierarchy of normative legal acts of the Republic of Belarus The Constitution of the Republic of Belarus has supreme legal authority. Laws, decrees, edicts and other acts of state bodies (officials) are adopted (issued) on the basis and in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus. Precisely in the Constitution enshrines the right of citizens of the Republic of Belarus for a healthy environment. Normative legal acts of the President of the Republic of Belarus, unless otherwise provided by the Head of State, issued in the form of decrees and edicts and have obligatory force on the entire territory of the Republic of Belarus. Decrees and edicts of the President of the Republic of Belarus issued on any matter except for the cases prescribed by the Constitution of the Republic of 75 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Belarus.President of the Republic of Belarus defines a unified state policy in the field of climate impact, determines the procedure of state control in the field of climate protection, carries out other powers in the field of climate protection in accordance with the Constitution and laws. Decisions of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus adopted in the form of laws and regulations. Resolution of the House of Representatives shall be taken on the administrative and controlling nature. Decisions of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus adopted in the form of resolutions. Laws of the Republic of Belarus regulate the most important public relations. Laws of the Republic of Belarus that entered into force are obligatory on the entire territory of the Republic of Belarus, unless otherwise established in the Law itself. The Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on the basis of and pursuant to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, acts of the President of the Republic of Belarus, the laws of the Republic of Belarus takes within its authority normative legal acts in the form of resolutions.The Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus adopts normative legal acts on issues that can’t be solved by the ministries and other republican government bodies, regional and Minsk city executive committees on their own or in cooperation with other ministries and other republican state bodies, local executive and administrative bodies. Normative legal acts of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus in the field of climate impact regulate the issues of the implementation of government policy, the development and implementation of government programs in this area, determine the order of submission, review and monitoring of climate projects, the formation and maintenance of the National Register of carbon units, and other issues in accordance with Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, other laws and acts of the President of the Republic of Belarus. Normative legal acts of ministries and other national government bodies can be adopted (issued) only in the cases and within the limits prescribed by the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, the normative legal acts of the President of the Republic of Belarus, the laws of the Republic of Belarus, the provisions of the relevant bodies, as well as normative legal acts of the Council of Ministers of the Republic Belarus.Normative legal acts of ministries and other national government bodies accepted (issued) in the form of decrees and orders. Ministries and departments develop and adopt normative legal acts, including technical normative legal acts in the field of climate impact, establish the procedure for conducting the cost accounting in this field, develop proposals to improve the economic mechanism, implement and monitor the climate projects; carries out other powers in the field of climate impacts in accordance with this Law and other legislative acts. Local Councils of Deputies, executive and administrative bodies within its competence 76 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures adopt normative legal acts in the form of decisions. Decisions of Local Councils of Deputies regulate the issues of adoption and implementation of programs and activities in the field of climate impacts at the local level, as well as issues of funding, logistical support, provision the population of education and information in the sphere of climate impact. 4.2 The main measures adopted by the Republic of Belarus in the field of climate change The main goal of the effective climate policy of the State isto develop and realizethe strategy of transferring the economyonto a path of sustainable low-carbon development in order to reduce anthropogenic pressures on the climate system, climate change mitigation and adaptation to the climate changes that are irreversible.From the date of entry into force of the UNFCCC and the KP (the first commitment period) in order to implement international agreements in the Republic of Belarus it was adopted a number of normative legal acts defining policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions and removals in the Republic of Belarus. Strategy for reducing emissions and increasing removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the Republic of Belarus for 2007 - 2012 years (considered in details in 5 National Communication).Strategy as a normative legal act has not lost force, but from a formal point of view, does not apply because the financing of the Strategy finished in 2012. It is obvious that it needs to develop the new Strategy for reducing emissions and increasing removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the Republic of Belarus for a further period taking into account requirements of the UNFCCC and features a new international climate agreement that is expected in the near future. In the development of the National program of climate change mitigation measures for 2008-2012 it was adopted the State program of climate change mitigationmeasures on the 2013 - 2020 years, approved by the Council of Ministers on June 21, 2013 № 510 (hereinafter - the State Program ). The objectives of the State Program is to carry out activities aimed to mitigate the climate change, to ensure sustainable development of the economy, reduction of GHG emissions in order to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change.Realization of the goals of the State Program aimed to reach Belarus’ greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of 8 % from the base year 1990. Total funding of the State Programis10.2 million US dollars(attheexchangerateon 01.06.2013). Realization of the State Program in the conditions of systematic growth in GDP will allowto provide: under the planned fuel saving and undertaking environmental activities, the reduction of GHG emissions for 2013 - 2020 years will be no less than 10 million tons of CO2 equivalent; 77 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures implementation of adaptation measures the different sectors of the economy to climate change, taking into account the socio-economic development of the country; development of recommendations on energy and resource saving, expansion of forest ecosystems, rewetting of the degraded peatlands and restoration of wetlands on unused meliorated lands in order to increase removals by sinks of greenhouse gases; improvement of the normative legal framework in the sphere of climate change. Taking into account the complexity in the process of ratification of the amendment to the KP The Strategy of participation of Belarus in the flexible mechanisms of the KP to the UNFCCC approved by the Presidium of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on December 23, 2008 №43, has determined that prior to the entry into force this amendment to the KP, the mechanism of voluntary reductions in greenhouse gas will be the main source of external funding for Belarus for projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This mechanism is not directly regulated by the KP, however, consistent with its spirit and principles. In order to ensure the implementation of projects for the voluntary reduction of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus a number of regulations was developed and adopted. Thus, the decision of the Council of Ministers on 14 April, 2009№ 466 "On the order of submission, review and monitoring of projects on voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions", developed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus, provided the opportunity to raise funds of potential foreign investors to the projects on the voluntary reduction of GHG emissions beyondthe economic mechanisms of the KP. This decision was also intended to stimulate the development of the projects aimed at the introduction of renewable energy and increasing the energy efficiency by of the republican government bodies. Pursuant to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers dated 14 April 2009 № 466, adopted a resolution of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection dated September 14, 2009 № 59 "On measures to implement the decisions of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on 5 September, 2006 № 1144 and on April 14, 2009 № 466". This document approved the form of the proposal of the project implementationor the complex project on voluntary reduction of GHG emissions; the form of a letter of support for the implementation of the project or the complex project on voluntary reduction of GHG emissions; the form of document on organization of the project or complex project on voluntary reduction of GHG emissions; the form of the letter on approval the project or the complex project on voluntary reduction of GHG emissions. Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus on December 8, 2010 № 625 "On some issues of reducing GHG emissions" secured a number of provisions that allow business entities to 78 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures receive funds for the sold units of voluntary GHG emission reductions from customers (legal and physical entities), including non-residents of the Republic of Belarus. Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus on May 7, 2012 № 224 "On the negotiations on the draft amendment to Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" defines the position of the Republic of Belarus in the negotiations on the draft amendment to Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC. The Republic of Belarus will support the amendment to Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, if it will contain as a target for the Republic of Belarus in the second period of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC the GHG emissions reduction of8 percent in 2020 from the base year 1990. Strategy on Environmental Protection up to 2025 approved by the decision of the board of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Republic of Belarus on January 28, 2011 №8-r. According to the Strategy the main aim for the protection of the environment in the long term up to 2025 is to achieve a higher quality ofenvironment thatprovide environmentally friendly living conditions, to promote solutions on global and regional environmental issues, sustainable social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus. Achievement of the goal should be provided by reducing the harmful effects on the environment, restoration of natural complexes, radical improvement of waste management, sustainable territorial development, conservation of biological and landscape diversity, minimizing the impact on the climate and adaptation to its changing, planning of measures for environmental protection using GIS and remote sensing methods. The strategy identifies a number of tasks to ensure climate change mitigation and adaptation of the social and economic spheres to its changes: consistent transition to low-carbon energy development through the widest possible use of alternative and renewable energy, biofuels and nuclear energy; introduction of economic incentives for the production and use of environmentally friendly, including non-carbon, fuels; implementation of best agricultural practices (including one to reduce ammonia emissions) for the maintenance of animals and birds, storage and application to the soil organic fertilizers; the construction of biogas installations; development of economic incentives of business entities to reduce GHG emissions; provision of GHG emissions by 2020 at no more than 110 million tons; using of insurance and special compensation funds to enhance the adaptive capacity of the social and economic sphere to probable climate change conditions. 79 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The strategy will be carried out through the development and implementation of state targeted policies, programs and action plans for the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of the individual components of the environment and natural ecosystems, as well as programs and plans of action for the protection of the environment in accordance with the economic activities. International cooperation is the basis of policy of the Republic of Belarus in the field of climate change and it contribute to the implementation of the main provisions of national policy. Enhancing cooperation in the sphere of climate change is carried out together with international organizations such as the UNDP, the United Nations Environment Program, the UN Economic Commission for Europe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization,the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the CIS Interstate Environmental Council. The Strategy of development of the hydrometeorological activity of the States members of the CIS was approved by the decision of the Council of Heads of Government of the CIS on 30 May, 2012. The Strategy is a coordinated by CIS countries set of interrelated tasks and directions of development, activities and stages of their implementation, mechanisms for effective solution of the systemic problems in the relation to the NHMS CIS activities and achievement of these goals: 1. ensuringof compliance with the responsibilities of the States - CIS members to protect the population and the sectors of the economy from possible negative impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and climate change; 2. balancing the interests of the state, business and public institutions interested in obtaining timely and qualitative hydrometeorological and other information about the state of the environment; 3. implementation of the program approach in the planning and execution of the budgets of states - CIS members, strengthening the targeted nature of the financing of hydro-meteorological activities; 4. implementation of the collective strategic intentions consistent with the principles of hydrometeorological activity in the CIS on the harmonization of the CIS NHMS. Financing activities that aimed to achieve the goals and objectives of the Strategy will be implemented at the expense of appropriation of national budgets by the executive body on hydrometeorology authorized to perform their assigned functions, including within the framework of funds to national programs, as well as extra-budgetary sources. Estimated total annual economic impact of the use of specialized hydrometeorological information (aviation, agriculture, transport, etc.) to 2015 willbe 1,100.0 millionUSDollars. 80 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.3 Review of policies and measures, the effect of which covers several sectors of the economy The Government of the Republic of Belarus pays considerable attention to the problems of climate change and plans measures aimed at stabilizing the emissions and increasing of the GHG sinks in the period of economic growth. In this regard the measures on improving the quality of sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases are very important. In Belarus, where forests cover about 40% of the territory, an exceptional value has the potential of increasing the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by forest ecosystems. The State Environmental Policy provides a consistent implementation of the restructuring of industrial sector, improving the technological level of production that focus on resource conservation, the use of low-waste and non-waste technologies, reduction of emissions and discharges of pollutants into the environment, recycling and waste management, elimination of consequences of the economic activities on the environment. Noting the peculiarities of climate policy of the Republic of Belarus, it should pay attention to a number of programs (strategies, concepts) that were not directed solely at the implementation of the requirements of the UNFCCC and the KP to reduce GHG emissions and increase removals by sinks, but contained measures that could provide the reduction of GHG emissions. Continuing the Program of Socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus for 2006-2010, it was adopted by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus on 11 April, 2011 № 136 the Program of Socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus for 20112015. The aim of environmental policy is the improvement of environmental quality ensuring environmental safety, efficient use of natural resources while maintaining the integrity of natural systems, including the unique one. Improvement of the environment will be achieved with the use of best available techniques in the construction of new facilities and upgrading the existing ones, compliance the environmental requirements,regulations and restrictions by the business entities. The methods of economic incentives along with the administrative methods will be applied for business entities engaged in activities to reduce waste generation, emissions (discharges) of pollutants into the environment. Improving the system of payments for GHG emissions, the creation of a national system of GHG emissions trading will prevent the occurrence of environmental risks associated with increases in greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic climate change. National environmental monitoring system on the basis of the introduction of advanced technology for the monitoring, preparation and submission of environmental information will be 81 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures further developed. The construction of modern sewage treatment plants and reconstruction of existing one, improvement of technological schemes of diversion and disposal of wastewater of the large livestock complexes, reduction of 50 per cent of the area of fields of filtration, the creation in cities with a population of 100 thousand people or more the systems of disposal and treatment of surface runoff from urban areas will be continued. Further greening of agriculture through the introduction of advanced methods and technologies of processing of soils, protection of the soil cover from degradation, water and wind erosion are identified as the most important areas of sustainable use and protection of land resources.Considerable attention will be paid to the reconstruction and repair of the melioration systems, the flood protection of the arable and meadow lands of the Polesie region, the development of land management schemes of 75 administrative districts. The second round of cadastral valuation of agricultural landswill be completed. The results of the policy in the sphere of use and protection of land resources will be: increasing the fertility of agricultural lands and ensuring the optimum water regime on them, the restoration of the meliorated lands on the area of about 420 thousand ha. Improvement of air quality including in large cities, reducing the negative impact of pollutants on human health, reducing human influence on the climate and the ozone layer arethe important tasks of the Program. The main activities aimed at solving the tasks include the re-equipment of large industrial enterprises with modern efficient gas cleaning equipment, reducing the consumption of carbon fuels, increasing the use of clean fuels - compressed and liquefied gas, diesel fuel with ultralowsulfur content, gasoline of standard Euro-4 and Euro-5. Automated systems operating in a continuous mode will be introduced in the practice of monitoring of the emissions of pollutants into the air. The main objective of activities in the sphere of waste management is to reduce the negative impact on the environment and human health by minimizing waste generation, increasing the level of its involvement in the civil circulation, disposal of hazardous waste. Priority in the field of waste management is also given to the introduction of new waste treatment technologies that ensure their re-use as material or energy resources, as well as the creation of non-waste production. For this purpose, it is planned to improve economic incentives of business entities to the development of low-waste technologies and recycling. The increase in use of municipal waste will be achieved through the construction and putting into operation the enterprises by their complex processing in regional centers and in Minsk, as well as the development and implementation of economic tools to encourage people to separate waste 82 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures collection. At the same time it is planned to reduce gradually the subsidies to organizations that are engaged in the removal of such waste. In order to improve sanitation and environmental conditions in suburban areas it is required the optimization of the network of municipal waste disposal sites. Expansion of the re-use of packaging materials through the organization of return, collection and recycling of containers and packaging materials will contribute to the implementation of the state policy of resource saving. It is envisaged to reduce the rate of the waste generation, increase the share of industrial waste management (excluding large-capacity waste) to 85 percent, and increase the coverage of the population by separate collection of municipal waste - up to 100 percent. The main direction of transformation of industrial potential of the Republic of Belarus in 2011-2015 should be the introduction of new and high technologies with the greatest added value, low energy and material consumption that contribute to the creation of new types of goods and services, the latest environmentally friendly (clean) materials and products, and also that provides the production of traditional goods and services with new properties and parameters unattainable in previous technological structures. The Concept of national security of the Republic of Belarus (Presidential Decree dated November 9, 2010 № 575)emphasizes the importance of an effective policy on climate change for sustainable development. The Concept covers many areas that define national security, including environmental safety. This document underlines the importance of creating market of ecological services, the introduction of an environmental audit and insurance, effective regulatory and legal framework of environmental safety, including a system of payments for the use of natural resources and adequate compensation of damage caused to the environment. Development of international cooperation in the field of environmental protection and legal solution of environmental problems of a transnational nature; the increasing of the reliability of estimations and projections of the state of the environment, climate change, severe weather and climate events;the adaptation of the sectors of the economy to changes in the environment; reducing GHGemissions in the atmosphere will ensure the protection against the external threats to national security in the ecological sphere. The State Program on the functioning and development of the National Environmental Monitoring System in the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015 (approved by Presidential Decree on June 13, 2011 № 244) is assumed, along with providing sustainable functioning of 11 types of monitoring, to perform the activities aimed at improving the quality and reliability of the data obtained in accordance with international standards, as well as to create conditions for the effective 83 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures use of environmental information in the process of planning of the socio-economic development of the republic.In order to obtain reliable results of the observations the State Program includes the technical re-equipment of the atmospheric air, fauna, surface water, radiation monitoring networks, as well as the widespread use of automated systems and devices, remote (satellite) methods of observation.Implementation of the State program will provide the data on the state of the atmospheric air of medium and large cities in real time, as well as to obtain data on the transboundary transport of pollutants and GHG in the lower atmosphere and upper atmosphere. The Program of activities of the Government of Belarus for 2011-2015, approved by the Council of Ministers on February 18, 2011 № 216, which has an effective environmental policy as an integral part, notes that one of the problems to be solved is to improve the quality of the environment, the implementation of the opportunities of Belarus to attract investments under the KP, including emissions trading.As a mechanism for implementation of this policy, the Government of Belarus considers necessary to introduce of environmental insurance in order to create a backup source to cover the costs of compensation for damage caused to the environment due to man-made and natural accidents and minimizing the consequences caused by climate change. The State Program of Innovative Development of the Republic of Belarus for 20112015 approved by the Decree of the Council of Ministers on May 26, 2011 № 669. In the field of energy production and energy efficiency will be created new technologies and equipment for the production of electricity and heat from renewable energy sources (wood, biomass, wind, etc.); biogas production technology in biogas facilities. It is planned to construct the biogas complexes with total electrical capacity of about 90 MW. In 2011-2015 the hydroelectric power plants of a total capacity of 102.1 MW will be commissioned, the boilers will be modernized in CHP through the introduction of new and high technologies. Total electric power of wind parks will be increased to 460 MW, the amount of other types of energy (crop residues, solar energy, municipal waste, petroleum coke and other) - evaluative up to 863.5 thousandTOE. The use of advanced technologies in the power sector will allow to reduce by 2016 the specific fuel consumption for electricity generation by 25-30 grams of equivalent fuel per kW/h and achieve economy of fuel and energy resources of 1.3 million TOEwith respect to the level of 2009. For thepurposesof savingthe energythe Ministry of Industry has planned the organization of production of energy-saving fluorescent lamps and other energy-saving lighting products. Ministry of Housing and Communal Services includes in the Program the construction of facilities for the use of deposits of sewage of the treatment plants of the Baranovichi city for biogas 84 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures production and its further use in the thermal power sector, which will reduce the amount of utilized sludge, reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. The Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus envisages the improvement of the functioning of the state system of prevention and liquidation of emergency situations, including the development and implementation of tools and technologies for monitoring, prediction, prevention and liquidation of fires, accidents and disasters. Projected funding for the Program will amount to 11 535 mln. USDollars. The Strategy for Technological Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2015 (Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated October 1, 2010 № 1420) wasadopted to fulfill the task of creating a competitive economy based on the use of advanced technologies and incentives to encourage innovation activity of business entities Implementation of the strategy is aimed at achieving the following objectives: modernization of traditional branches of economy in order to increase labor productivity, reducing energy and materialintensity, creating new products that reduce dependence on import and increase the export potential of the republic; creation and development of industries that providethe production output of the new generation. Table 4.1 - Technological development of traditional sectors of the economy Manufacture of machinery and equipment ∙ creation of assembly production of cars with engine of hybrid type (diesel + generator + electric motor + battery) ∙ development on JSC “MAZ” technologies for the creation and development in the production of automotive and bus machinery that meets the technological requirements of environmental standards Euro 4 and Stage 3A; ∙ organization of production of engines with power ratings at 400-650 hp, corresponding to the level of ecological safety of the Euro-5 and Euro-6; ∙ technology development and commercial production of tractors, selfpropelled agricultural and forestry equipment that meets the technological requirements of environmental standards Stage 3A and Stage 3B Modernization of existing facilities and the introduction of new technologies for production of new types of globally competitive products Reducing energy intensity by 25-30 percent Metallurgical production The production of textiles, leather, leather products, shoes Production of the ∙ construction materials ∙ ∙ ∙ Production and ∙ reducingenergyintensityby 30 percent active involvement the recyclable materials in the production re-equipment of cement plants by introducing three new technological lines for production of dry cement, which will reduce its energy consumption by 20-30 per cent, usage of the fuels alternative to gas during the clinker burning; the introduction of energy-saving technology of production of lime, which can reduce the fuel consumption to produce 1 ton of material by 50 percent, as well as significantly improve the quality and competitiveness of the product reduction in specific fuel consumption for electricity supply by 27.4 g of 85 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures distribution of electricity, gas and water equivalent fuel / kWh; achieving an annual saving of fuel and energy resources in the amount of 1,015 thousand TOE with respect to the level of 2009; ∙ development and implementation of technologies for production of fuel and energy from alternative sources, as well as from oil shale and brown coals; ∙ development of technology of the production of biogas from the organic waste Construction ∙ reducing energy intensity by 30 percent; ∙ development and implementation of energy-saving technologies of constructing buildings and structures with the effective use of material resources and renewable energy Agricultureandforestry Agriculture: ∙ reducing energy intensity by 10-12 percent; Forestry: ∙ increasing the average stock of mature stands on 1 hectare of land covered by forests by 5-7 per cent; ∙ increasing the level of effective yield of the main felling up to 100 percent ∙ increasing of forest productivity by improving the quality and effectiveness of forest management activities ∙ 4.4 Policies and measures undertaken by the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sectors (summary table) General policies and measures undertaken by the Republic of Belarus to reduce emissions are shown below (Table 4.2). 86 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Table 4.2 - Policies and measures undertaken by the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sectors Name of policy and measures GHG affected Type of instrument Status Implemented entity or entities Policies on climate change issues State program of climate change mitigation measures on the 2013 - 2020 years (2013) Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Education, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus The Strategy of participation of Belarus in the flexible mechanisms of the KP to the UNFCCC (2008) Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Legal and regulatory In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Legal and regulatory In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Legal and regulatory, fiscal In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Legal and regulatory, fiscal In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations Legal and regulatory In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations On the order of submission, review and monitoring of projects on voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions(2009) On measures to implement the decisions of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on 5 September, 2006 № 1144 and on April 14, 2009 № 466 (2009) On some issues of reducing GHG emissions (2010) On the negotiations on the draft amendment to Annex B to the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2012) Strategy on Environmental Protection up to 2025 (2011) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC,NMVOC, HFC, PFC 87 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The Strategy of development of the hydrometeorological activity of the States - members of the CIS (2012) Legal and regulatory In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations General policies and measures Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic The Program of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015 (2011) The Concept of national security of the Republic of Belarus (2010) The State Program on the functioning and development of the National Environmental Monitoring System in the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015 (2011) The Program of activities of the Government of Belarus for 2011-2015 (2011) The State Program of Innovative Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015 (2011) The Strategy for Technological Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2015 (2010) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC,NMVOC, HFC, PFC Legal and regulatory Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Energy 88 In the process of implementation Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations In the process of implementation Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection In the process of implementation State authorities In the process of implementation Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus In the process of implementation Ministry of Economy Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures CO2, CO,N2O, The Strategy of development of the NOx,CH4, SO2, energy potential of the Republic of NMC, NMVOC, Belarus (2010) HFC, PFC The State program of development of the Belarusian energy system for the period up to 2016 (2012) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC The Conception of heat supply development in the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020 (2010) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC The National Energy Saving Program for 2011-2015 (2010) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC The Law on Renewable Energy Sources(2010) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation 89 In the process of implementation In the process of implementation Ministry of Energy Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, regional executive committees and Minsk City Executive Committee Ministry of Energy Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, regional executive committees and Minsk City Executive Committee State Committee on Standardization, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Economy, the State Committee for Science and Technology Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures On Approval of the Regulation on the State Cadastre of renewable energy sources and the use of its data, the Regulation on the confirmation of the CO2, origin of energy produced from CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, renewable energy sources, and the SO2, issuance of a certificate to confirm the NMC origin of energy and on amendments to some decisions of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus (2011) On approval of Instruction on some issues of conducting of the state cadastre of renewable energy (2011) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC The State Program for the construction of energy sources on local fuels in 2010-2015 (2010) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC The National Program for the Development of local and renewable energy sources for 2011-2015 (2011) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC In the process of implementation State Committee on Standardization, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Economy, the State Committee for Science and Technology Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation 90 State Committee on Standardization, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Economy, the State Committee for Science and Technology Ministry of Architecture and Construction, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Ministry of Transport and Communications, Ministry of Energy, Belarusian Production and Trade Concern of timber, woodworking and pulp and paper industry, regional executive committees and Minsk City Executive Committee Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, regional and Minsk city executive committees Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures In the process of implementation The Program of construction of energy sources running on biogas for 20102015(2010) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation The State Program for the construction of hydroelectric power plants in 20112015 in the Republic of Belarus (2010) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Belarusian State Concern of Food Industry "Belgospischeprom", Belarusian State Concern of Oil and Chemistry, regional executive committees and Minsk City Executive Committee, the State Committee for Standardization Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, Ministry of Transport and Communications, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, Ministry of Industry, Gosstandard, the State Property Committee, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, regional executive committees, Minsk City Executive Committee Industry The Program of the development of the industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020 (2012) CO2, CO,N2O,NOx,CH4, SO2, NMC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic 91 In the process of implementation Ministries, departments, committees, corporations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, regional and Minsk city executive committees, State Scientific Institution "Research Institute of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus", the Republican Association of Industrial Enterprises "BelAPP" Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures CO2, CO,N2O, The Conception of the development of NOx,CH4, SO2, the building complex of the Republic of NMC, NMVOC, Belarus for 2011 - 2020 years (2010) HFC, PFC The Comprehensive Program for the planning, construction and CO2, CO,N2O, reconstruction of energy efficient NOx,CH4, SO2, residential buildings in the Republic of NMC, NMVOC, Belarus for 2009-2010 and until 2020 HFC, PFC (2009) Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation State authorities and other organizations In the process of implementation The Ministry of Transport and Communications In the process of implementation The Ministry of Transport and Communications, Minsk City Executive Committee, Brest Regional Executive Committee Grodno Regional Executive Committee, the state association "Belarusian Railways" In the process of implementation Ministries, the Belarusian Republican Union of Consumer Societies, Regional Executive Committees In the process of implementation Ministries, the Belarusian Republican Union of Consumer Societies, Regional Executive Committees Transport Legal and regulatory, financial and economic The State Program for the development of road transport the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015(2010) The State Program for the Development of Railway Transport of the Republic of Belarus for 2011 - 2015 years (2010) CO2, CO,N2O, NOx,CH4,NMVOC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Agriculture The State Program for sustainable rural development in the 2011 - 2015 years (2011) The State Program of conservation and use of drained peatlands lands for 20112015 (2010) CO2, N2O, CH4 CO2, N2O, CH4 Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Legal and regulatory, financial and economic 92 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The Republican Program of reconstruction, technical reequipment CO2, N2O, CH4 and construction of complexes for growing pigs in 2011-2015 (2011) Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Ministries, the Belarusian Republican Union of Consumer Societies, Regional Executive Committees Land use, land use change and forestry The State Program for Development of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015 (2010) CO2, N2O,NOx, CH4,CO Legal and regulatory, financial and economic In the process of implementation Ministry of Forestry, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Emergency Situations, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Belarusian Production and Trade Concern of timber, woodworking and pulp and paper industry, the Ministry of Education and the Minsk City Executive Committee Waste The Program of development of housing and communal services of the Republic of Belarus until 2015 (2013) N2O,CH4,NMVOC Legal and regulatory, financial and economic 93 In the process of implementation Ministry of Housing and Communal Services, regional executive committees and Minsk City Executive Committee Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.5 Analysis of the implementation of policies and measures represented in the Fifth National Communication 1. According to the task of the Program of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2006-2010, on 1 January 2011 185 new production facilities were created, 320 existing enterprises weremodernized and upgraded, 359 new technologieswere introduced. The modernization of electric power industry of the country wasactively carried out. In 2006-2010, 21 projects were implemented, including the modernization of power units at Lukoml regional power station, Minsk CHPP-3, Grodno CHPP-2, Lida CHPP. 6 mini-hydro power plant and 3 CHPP on local fuels were built;more than 1.4 thousandboilers running on local fuels were put in operation. All these measures allowed to increase the share of renewable energy in the local balance of boiler and furnace fuelsfrom 17 percent in 2005 to 20.5 percent in 2010, to save due to energy efficiency measures more than 8.5 million TOEwhich is about 4 percent of the gross consumption of the fuel and energy resources for the five years. However, the range of problems that hinder the development of the country couldn’t be solved in the course of implementation of the Program. The insufficiently effective structure of the economy has still remained. The national economy is still characterized by high consumption of materials and energy of the products that will be solved in 2011-2015. 2. As a result of implementation of the Decree of Council of Ministers "On measures onimprovement of the efficiency of using the fuel and energy resources for the period up to 2012" (2010),the Ministry of Energy reported that in 2012 the Belarusian power station commissioned a prototype of the steam boiler on local fuels. The total economic impact of the decline of the losses in electrical networks in 2010-2012was 563.4 million kW/h or 158.8 thousandTOE. 3. As a result of implementation of the State Integrated Program of modernization of the basic production assets of the Belarusian energy system, energy efficiency and increasing the share of domestic fuel and energy resources for the period up to 2011 (2009) it was achieved a reduction in depreciation of fixed assets in the whole energy system from 60.7 to 48 percent (to 12.7 percentage points compared with the level of depreciation at 1 January 2005).Actual depreciation of the fixed assets of regional power companies as of January 1, 2011 amounted to 46.6 percent (down of 14.1 percentage points). During the period of implementation of the State program the SPA "Belenergo" provided the commissioning of 450 MW of generating capacity. Development of electric and heating networks. 94 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures After the renovation and new construction it was put in operation about 14,840 miles of electric networks (with target - 10,310 km) and 865 km of heating networks (with target -830 km). Saving of the fuel and energy resources. The volume of saving of the fuel and energy resources amounted to 1,575 TOE when target is set at 1,150 TOE. 4. The intermediate results of the Development Strategy of the energy potential of the Republic of Belarus. A number of established targets were reachedduring the implementation of the Strategy. As a result of the introduction of modern generating equipment for energy sources of SPA "Belenergo", modernization of existing equipment it was possible to reduce the specific reference fuel consumption for electric generation ofSPA "Belenergo" in 2012 compared to 2010 at 14.3 g/kWh (5.3 percentage points) when the target established by the Development Strategy of the energy potential of the Republic of Belarus was 10 percentage points to the level of 2015 and 15 percentage points to the level of 2020. Optimization of the schemes of heating networks, the introduction of preinsulated pipes, improving the efficiency of water treatment equipment and others allowed to reduce the technological expenditure of heat on transportation in the heating networks in 2012 by 0.56 percentage points compared to 2010. Strategy identifies the pace reduce heat loss by 2016 to 8 percentage points in the heating system. Table 4.3. - Saving of the fuel and energy resources, thousand TOE. Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Saving of the fuel and energy resources, thousand TOE. planned fact 250,0 325,0 290,0 290,0 335,0 - 257,4 351,3 306,1 290,0 370,2 1575,0 Completion, % 102,9 108,1 105,5 100,0 110,5 - The amount of use of local fuel and energy resources and their share in the consumption of boiler and furnace fuelsin 2010 The actual use of local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources is given in table 4.4. (planned amount for the period 2006-2010 is equal to 705.8 thousand TOE) 95 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Table 4.4. Use of local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources Use of local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources, thousand TOE. planned fact* 33,7 33,7 70,9 75,8 117,8 138,2 178,4 194,6 305,0 324,4 705,8 766,7 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOTAL Completion,% 100,0 106,9 117,3 109,1 106,4 108,6 * Data of the Department on Energy Efficiency of Gosstandart Annual use of local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources amounted to 125.9 thousand TOE that is 14.8 times more than in 2005 (8.5 thousand TOE). Table 4.5. Use of local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources in 2010 Type of resource 2010, TOE Local fuels, including: 125 982 Milledpeat 20 634 Sodpeat 5 Fuelbriquettes 14 062 Woodfuel 40 501 Loggingresidues 28 362 Industrialwoodresidue 2 459 Cropresidues 197 lignin of wood-hydrolysis production 15 525 Wood-peat fuel 4 230 Heatingsecondary energy resources 156011 Secondary pressurized energy resources 34 337 Hydro-electricpower-plants 8 074 TOTALuseof local fuels, renewable energy and secondary energy resources 324 404 In order to increase the use of local fuel and energy resources of the SPA "Belenergo" on energy sources it were implemented seven projects, including the use of local fuels (wood chips, peat, lignin), commissioned Zel'venskaya HPP (0.2 MW) and Minichskaya HPP (0.11 MW). 5. As a result of the implementation of the Program of construction of energy sources working on biogas for the period 2010-2012, 39 biogas plants with total electric capacity of 40.4 MW were commissioned. This plants will annually produce about 340 million kW•h of electrical energy and to replace the imported natural gas in the amount of more than 145 thousand TOE. 96 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Table 4.6. Implemented policies and measures by sectors Name of policy and measures Objective and/or activity affected Estimate of mitigation impact, in CO2 equivalent Type of instrument Status Cross-sectoral policies and measures CO2, CO, N2O, NOx, CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC Legal and regulatory, economic Implemented State authorities and other organizations 950 ths tons in CO2 eq Cross-sectoral policies and measures CO2, CO, N2O, NOx, CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC Legal and regulatory, economic Implemented State authorities and other organizations 950 ths tons in CO2 eq Action Plan to implement the Cross-sectoral Kyoto Protocol to the policies and UNFCCC for 2005-2012 measures CO2, CO, N2O, NOx, CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC State authorities and other organizations Due to the absence of access of Belarus to the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol the assessment of these measures can not be applied. The National Program on measures to mitigate climate change for 2008-2012 Strategy to reduce emissions and increase removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the Republic of Belarus for 2007-2012 GHGaffected Legal and regulatory, economic 97 Implemented Implemented entity or entities Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures CO2, CO, N2O, NOx, CH4, SO2, NMC, NMVOC, HFC, PFC Legal and regulatory, economic Implemented Industry CO2, CH4, N2O Legal and regulatory, financial and economic, technical Heads of the republican government and other state organizations under the Implemented Government of the Republic of Belarus, Regional Executive Committees and Minsk City Executive Committee Industry CO2, N2O, CH4 National Energy Conservation Program for 1996-2000 (1996) Energy CO2, CH4, N2O National Energy Conservation Program for 2001–2005 годы (2001) Energy CO2, CH4, N2O National Energy Conservation Program for Energy CO2, CH4, N2O The Strategy on participation of the Republic of Belarus in the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period The Program of technical reequipment and modernization of the foundry, thermal, galvanic and other energy-intensive industries, 2007-2010 (2007) The State Integrated Program on development of the material and technical basis of the construction industry in 2006-2010 Cross-sectoral policies and measures Legal and regulatory, financial and economic, technical Legal and regulatory, financial and economic, technical Legal and regulatory, financial and economic, technical Legal and regulatory, 98 State authorities and other organizations Due to the absence of access of Belarus to the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol the assessment of these measures can not be applied. 356 ths tons in CO2 eq 150 ths tons in CO2 eq Implemented State authorities and other organizations Implemented State Committee on Energy Efficiency and Control 2300 ths tons in CO2 eq Implemented State Committee on Energy Efficiency and Control 3800 ths tons in CO2 eq Implemented Committee on Energy Efficiency under the Council of Ministers of 2560 ths tons in CO2 eq Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 2006–2010 (2006). Measures to improve efficiency of using fuel and energy resources for the period up to 2012 (2010) The State Integrated Program for modernization of the basic production assets of the Belarusian energy system, energy efficiency and increasing the share of local fuel and energy resources for the period up to 2011 (2007) The Republican Program to transform the boiler in the mini CHPPs, 2007-2010 (2007) Energy Energy financial and economic, technical CO2, CH4, N2O technical CO2, CH4, N2O Legal and regulatory, financial and economic Energy CO2, CH4, N2O The Program of construction of energy sources working on biogas, for the period 2010-2012 (2010) Energy CO2, N2O, CH4 The National Action Plan for sustainable use of natural resources and protection of environment of the Republic of Belarus for 2006-2010 (2006) Energy СО2, СН4 the Republic of Belarus The Council of Ministers of the Implemented Republic of Belarus Implemented TheMinistryofEnergy (2011) – 202 ths tons in CO2 eq; (2012) – 56 ths tons in CO2 eq 600 ths tons in CO2 eq Legal and regulatory, financial 85 ths tons in CO2 Implemented StateCommitteeonStandardization and eq economic, technical Legal and regulatory, State authorities and other 238 ths tons in CO2 financial and Implemented organizations eq economic, technical Legal and regulatory, financial Ministry of Housing and 28 ths tons in CO2 Implemented and Communal Services eq economic, technical 99 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.6 Policies and measures taken by the State to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sector 4.6.1 Energy In the Republic of Belarus by the 01.09.2013 was adopted a number of policies in the energy sector. The following policy documents are the basis for the adoption of measures to ensure energy saving, energy efficiency of industrial processes, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion in the energy industry,increasing the energy efficiency of use of the fuel and energy resources, introduction of biogas power plants in enterprises and livestock complexes; introduction of wind power plants, photovoltaicinstallations, solar energyinstallations, hydropowerplants and heat pump plants; introduction of power generation equipment and technologies using renewable fuels. Thus, the principles and conditions for the stimulation of workers for saving and rational use of the fuel, energy and material resources were formed, it were set the targets to reduce the consumption of use of electrical energy and natural gas for industrial needs, it were set the targets for saving light petroleum products (gasoline, diesel and biodiesel), funded the construction of power plants operating on biogas from agricultural and industrial residues, municipal and household waste, sludge, etc. The following regulations continue to apply (their detailed review presented in the previous national communications): • Directive "Economy and thrift - the main factors of economic security of the State" (2007); ∙ • Law "On Energy Saving" (1998); • The Conception of energy security of the Republic of Belarus (2007); • Law "On the Use of Atomic Energy" (2008). The Resolution of the Council of Ministers dated August 09, 2010 № 1180 approved the Strategy of development of the energy potential of the Republic of Belarus. The strategy was developed for 2011-2015 and for the period up to 2020 in order to determine the further development and improvement of legal, organizational, economic, technical and technological conditions for the effective development of the energy potential of the Republic of Belarus and enhance energy security.The strategic goal in the sphere of energy saving for the period up to 2015 should be reducing the energy intensity of GDP of the Republic of Belarus by 50 percent relative to the level of 2005, 60 percent - in 2020. This aim should be achieved by: • improvement of the organizational and economic policy of energy saving; 100 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures • increasing the efficiency of energy use at all stages of production (transformation), transportation and consumption; • increasing in the fuel balance of the country the share of local energy resources, secondary energy resources, renewable energy sources. Improving the efficiency of energy use will be achieved primarily through the introduction of new energy-efficient technologies in all sectors of the economy and technological processes: in housing and communal services - by: • waste management on water treatment plants through the creation of biogas • optimization of the water supply of cities and towns in order to reduce energy plants; consumption; • modernization of the residential buildings in order to bring the heat rate for heating and ventilation for not more than 60 kW/h per square meter per year after major repairs and reconstruction of buildings; • usingof the local fuel and energy resources not less than 900 thousand TOE by • using in 2020 of the municipal waste and sewage sludge with replacement of 80- 2012; 100 thousand TOE. in agriculture - by: • the introduction onthe major agricultural and processing organizations of power plants on local fuels; • using of straw for energy purposes in the amount of up to 230 thousand TOE; • construction of local biogas plants in agricultural organizations engaged in the production of cattle, pigs and poultry. in the forestry - by: • creation of new industries for the production of wood pellets, wood briquettes; • introduction of equipment for production of wood chips from non-commercial wood and wood residues. in the food industry - by: • implementation of the technology of utilization of the vinasse to obtain biogas for use as fuel in boilers; • construction of wastewater treatment plants with the introduction of new technologies for the production of biogas. 101 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Local and renewable energy In 2015, due to expand the usage of local fuels and renewable energy the share of own energy resources in the balance boiler and furnace fuel will be at least 28 percent, and in 2020 at least 32 percent (in 2009 - 20.3% or 5 29 TOE). Hydropower resources The Conception on Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus identifies the potential capacity of all watercourses in Belarus - 850 MW, which technically available - 520 MW, and economically feasible - 250 MW. The currently capacity of hydroelectric power plants in the country is 16.1 MW. The use of hydro potential will be achieved through the construction of new plants, reconstruction and modernization of small hydropower plants. In 2011-2015 will provides the construction of the hydroelectric power station with the capacity of about 120 MW, including: two hydroelectric power stations on the Western Dvina river with total capacity of 63 MW (Polotsk and Vitebsk HPP) and two - on the river Neman with total capacity of 37 MW (Grodno and Neman HPP); recovery of 10 existing and construction of 35 new micro and small hydroelectric power plants. The planned power generation will reach 0.6 billion. kW•h, which is equivalent to about 205 thousand TOE. Wind power potential On the territory of the republic 1840 sites for wind installations with a theoretical power output of more than 1,600 MW were identified. In 2009, the total installed capacity of wind power plants amounted to 1.2 MW with the volume of replacement - 0.4 thousand TOE. In 20112014 in Dzerzhinsk district of Minsk region is planned to build a wind farm with electrical capacity of 160 MW. In general in 2011-2015 wind farms can be built up to a total capacity of 300 MW. Biogas In Belarus, the estimated volume of biogas production could reach 503.7 million cubic meters per year, which is equivalent to 433.2 thousandTOE. In order to reach this target is planned to organize the production of domestic biogas plants. Solar energy Taking into account the climatic conditions of the Republic of Belarus the main areas of using of the solar energy will be solar water heaters and various solar stations for intensification of drying and heating of water in agricultural production and for other domestic purposes.In 102 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 2010in the Soligorsk district the domestic solar water heater with capacity of 160 kW put into operation. A similar installation is planned to install for the hotel "Lake" of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. The energy potential of using of the solar energy will reach up to 10 thousandTOE. Municipalwaste The potential energy contained in municipal waste generated on the territory of the Republic of Belarusis equivalent to 470 thousand. TOE. The effectiveness at their bioprocessing in order to obtain the gaswill not exceed 20-25 per cent, which is equivalent to 100-120 thousand TOE. Only in regional cities the annual recycling of municipal waste to gas would permit to obtain the amount of biogas of about 50 thousand. TOE, and in Minsk - up to 30 thousandTOE.In addition, there are long-term stocks of such waste in all major citieswhich causes problems for the environment, including the emission of greenhouse gases. Therefore, the efficiency of this direction should be evaluated not only on the biogas output, but also on the environmental component, which in this matter will be the main one. As the technology of incineration of the unsorted municipal waste for the country is unacceptable for environmental and economic reasons, for the period up to 2015 is planned to realizedthe pilot projects to implement technologies for the production of biogas from organic low-caloric part of municipal waste and sewage sludge; the collection and use of biogas generated at the landfill of municipal waste; pyrolysis of the high-calorific part of the waste to produce the synthesized gas. The widespread use of municipal waste energy in the next 10-15 years will be restrained because of the large capital investment in the construction of plants for the processing of municipal waste, high operating costs and long payback periods, the need to develop of modern technologiesto obtain energy from unsorted municipal waste. These projects require significant capital investment (about 1.8million US Dollars per 1 MW of electric power), they primarily haveenvironmental but not a commercial focus, but it is a perspective direction of using an organic part of municipal waste and sewage sludge. The implementation of such projects in cities with a population from 100 thousand people or more will ensure by 2020 the production of biogas from 65-70 percent of annually produced sewage sludge and municipal waste (in landfills or waste treatment plants) with the commissioning of 30-40 MW electricity generation capacity, including at least 15 MW to 2015. As a result, the natural gas will be replaced in an amount equivalent to 80-100 thousandTOE. 103 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Cropresidues The total potential of crop residues is estimated at 1.46 million TOE per year. The decision on the appropriate volumes of their burning for fuel purposes should take individually in each case. In accordance with the balance of the use of straw in the agricultural organizations of the Republic of Belarus for 2009,the free resources of straw from 8 mln.tons of straw produced from cereals and leguminous cultures amounted to 957thousand tons, which is equivalent to 230 thousand TOE. Biodiesel At present the organizations of the Concern "Belneftekhim" works on increasing of production capacities of methyl esters of fatty acids. By the end of 2012, the installed capacity will enable production of biodiesel based on the full needs in it of the Republic of Belarus. Fuel ethanol Belarus has a significant potential for the introduction of technologies for production of fuel ethanol. Consideration should be given to the questions of cheap production of fuel ethanol with minimal costs. The residues from sugar, starch and cellulose production can be used. For the introduction of fuel ethanol production technology it needs mainly the corresponding reconstruction of distilling plants, which will provide the minimum amount of necessary investments.By 2012 it is planned to develop a pilot technology for production of the biofuel for gasoline engines based on ethanol with the creation of a working example of a pilot installation of producing the biofuel. By 2015, the annual production of ethanol could reach 50 thousand tons. Geothermal resources of the subsoil The geothermal field of the Podlasie-Brest depression (Brest region) and the Pripyat Trough (Gomel region) were examined. The density of geothermal resources in Vitebsk, Minsk and Mogilev regions are in the process of analyzing. More than 200 heat pumps with total electrical capacity of about 16.5 MWoperates for the heating needs in various sectors of the republic.The potential of use of low-grade heatingsecondary energy resources on spillways of the industrial facilities and utilities, as well as the potential of using of the geothermal energy for heating of the private houses are more than 1 million Gcal, which is equivalent to 175 thousandTOE. 104 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The development of the energy potential requires significant capital investment. The total funding for 2011-2020 will be at least 45.9 billion US dollars. The volume of capital investments for 2011-2015 and until 2020 will be (mln. USD): 2011–2015 2016–2020 2011–2020 23 300–23 800 22 167–22 667 45 467–46 467 Resolution of the Council of Ministers on February 29, 2012 № 194 approved the State program of development of the Belarusian energy system for the period up to 2016. The State Program in accordance with the functions entrusted to the Ministry of Energy and SPA "Belenergo" determine the purpose and the objectives of development and functioning of the Belarusian energy system, as well as the ways of their implementation in relation to the projected fuel and energy balance of the Republic of Belarus, development and operation modes of the sources in other sectors of the economy. According to the results of the State program in 2016 it is planned to achieve the following targets (taking into account their actual implementation in 2011). Table 4.7 - Projected figures based on the results of the State Program IndicatorsofSPA "Belen ergo" Commissioningcapacity, MW 2241 Decommissioning of inefficient capacity, MW 1820 Reduction in specific fuel consumption for electricity production (in the 25–30 conditions comparable to 2010), tce / kW•h Saving of the fuel and energy resources (for the period of 1265 implementation of the State program), thousand TOE. Reducing the use of natural gas by saving fuel and energy resources and 1426,5/1,26 increasing the use of local fuel and energy resources (for the period of implementation of the State program) thousand TOE/billion cubic meters Theuseoflocalfuelandenergyresourcesin 2015, ths. 482/0,42 TOE/billioncubicmeters The main parameters of the State Program The use of local fueland energy resources In order to increase the use of fuel wood, peat and other local fuels it was approved the State program for the construction of energy sources on local fuels in 2010-2015, which provides the construction of the 160 energy sources on local fuels with total electrical capacity of 32.65 MW and heating capacity of 1023 33 MW. The required volume of use of wood fuel and peat for the operation of these facilities is 450 thousandTOE. In 2016 the wind power plants with total capacity of 162 MW are planning to commission, and in the presence of investment funds the total electric power of the wind farms 105 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures could reach 300 MW. The potential reserves of the renewable energy sources(biogas, phytomass, solar, wind, geothermal, municipal waste and crop residues energy) does not allow to createthe relatively large, economically viable capacities in the electricity industry.Their use is appropriate in the small local installations, the list of which is defined in the National Program for the development of local and renewable energy sources for 2011-2015. In accordance with this program the volume of use is estimated about 600 thousand TOE. Greeningoftheenergysector In the period up to 2020 it is providingthe reducing of the emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen dioxide by at least 15 percent compared to 2010 due to the implementation of the following main activities: introduction of the most effective means of purification of exhaust gases from particulate matters and sulfur dioxide, modern technologies to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide; deep recycling of combustion products (carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide) for further production of carbonic acid and sulfuric acid; use of optimal temperature and thermal modes of operation of the boiler equipment and improvement of structural elements (burners), allowing to reduce the concentration of nitrogen oxides by 50 percent; use of two-stage (as well as three- and multi-stage) combustion in boilers on the basis of operational measures or special burners (reducing the concentration of NOx by 30-40 percent); recirculation of combustion products into the air that goes to the fuel combustion (reducing NOx 15-50 percent); water or steam supply into the combustion zone; use of fluidized bed combustors when burning solid fuels and wastes; introduction of the modern low-emission gas-burning devices, providing the lower nitrogen content in the flue gases; introduction of modern technologies of use of ash refuse from the combustion of solid fuels. It is providing the development of measures to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matters, not exceeding the emissions in 2010 (in the comparable conditions) during the construction and reconstruction of energy sources of the SPA "Belenergo" and local sources, using local fuels. The funding volume for the implementation of the State Program of development of the 106 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Belarusian energy system for the period up to 2016 by the organizations of the Ministry of Energy will be 5 403 million US dollars. As a result of the plans under the State Program, as of 09/01/2013, the following results were achieved: Table 4.8 - Results of the implementation of the State program of the Belarusian energy system for the period up to 2016 Yearofcommissioning The total capacity of power The total capacity of energy sources (boilers), MW sources (mini CHPPs), MW (heating/electrical) 2010 109,55 24,3/2,35 2011 113,4 33,2/6,3 2012 120,4 The Conception of heat supply development in the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020 was adopted by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated February 18, 2010 № 225. The Conception was developed for the purpose of heat supply, increasing its efficiency and reliability, the formation of new economic relations in this area. The share of the boiler and furnace fuel expended to production of heating energy in the fuel balance of the Republic of Belarus is more than 40 percent. The consumption of the boiler and furnace fuel in 2008 amounted to 27.9 million TOE, including the fuel for the production of the heating energy (by fuel equivalent) - 11.4 SPA "Belenergo" (5.5 million TOE). Implementation of the present Conception will enhance: the level of energy security of the Republic of Belarus through the efficient use of energy resources; the share of local fuels in the fuel balance of the country. Fulfillment of the present Conception will expand the use of energy-saving technologies and equipment. Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 24 December 2010 № 1882 approved the National Energy Saving Program for 2011-2015. This program was developed throughout the Republican energy saving program for 20062010. Within the last Program (2005) it has been tasked to reduce the energy intensity of GDP in 2010 relative to the level of 2005 by at least 31 percent with a GDP growth rate of 156 percent. In fact, GDP in 2009 compared with 2005 increased by 31.9 per cent, and with the projection for 2010 its growth in 2006-2010 is expected to reach 42 percent. The level of reduction of energy intensity of GDP in 2006-2009 was 24.8 percent. The main factor in the low growth of fuel and energy consumption with a significant 107 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures GDP growth and, as a consequence, the reduction of energy intensity of GDP, was the implementation of energy saving measures. In this period regional and sectoral energy efficiency programs were drafted and implemented on the annual basis. As part of the National Energy Saving Program for 2006-2010 active work on promoting the rational use of fuel and energy resources has done, including through the: conducting the republican campaigns "Energy Efficiency - in action", "Minus 60 watts in every apartment"; monthly publication of the specialized scientific journal "Energy Efficiency", educational materials, posters and other visual agitation on energy saving topics; creation of social advertising, popular science and outreach films about energy saving. In 2006-2010in the republic the active work held in order to bring the legal framework into line with the actual problems of energy saving. For example, more than 100 regulatory acts of various government agencies were adopted in the sphere of regulation on energy saving issues, which significantly increased the status of issues addressed in the field of energy conservation. The strategic goal of energy saving for the period up to 2015 is to reduce the energy intensity of GDP of the Republic of Belarus for 50 percent in comparison with 2005 and to increase the share of local fuel and energy resources in the balance of the boiler and furnace fuel to 28 per cent taking into account the environmental requirements, social standards and provide indicators of energy security. Improving energy efficiency will be achieved primarily through the introduction of new energy efficient technologies in all sectors of the economy and technological processes: in the sector of the electric power - by: scheduled and systematic reduction in specific fuel consumption for electricity production in the SPA "Belenergo" not less than 10 per cent by 2015 and at least 15 per cent - by 2020; in the heating system - by: reducingthe losses in the heating systems to 8 percent; increasing the combined production of electricity and heating: by 2015 - at 55 per cent and 45 per cent, by 2020 - 50 percent and 50 percent respectively; optimization of heat supply schemes; in industry - decreasingthe specific energy consumption for production by 15-20 percent - by: development and implementation of optimal schemes of energy supply of industrial facilities, implementation of the energy saving technologies and energy efficient processes; 108 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures in the housing and communal services - by: reconstruction and modernization of boilers; creating a mini-CHPP on local fuels, biogas installations on wastewater treatment plants, cogeneration plants with the use of the municipal waste; public involvement in the process of energy saving; the use of local fuel and energy resources not less than 900 thousand TOE by 2012; in the construction and production of construction materials - by: development of production of the construction materials using the latest energy saving technologies; design and construction of buildings (structures) with the use of extremely energy saving technologies; in agriculture - by: using of straw for energy purposes in the amount of up to 230 thousand TOE; using of electricity generating plants on local fuel, using thesolar water heaters; construction of biogas plants in the local agricultural organizations engaged in the production of cattle, pigs and poultry; modernization of livestock complexes with transition to new energy efficient technologies; inforestry - by: creation of new industries for the production of wood pellets, wood briquettes, fuel chips from wood waste of any physical and mechanical properties, sizes and shapes; in the food industry - by: introduction of technology of utilization of the vinasse to obtain biogas for its use as fuel in boilers; construction of wastewater treatment plants with the introduction of new technologies to the production of biogas; usingofheatpumps. The main technical measures to increase the use of local fuels and secondary energy resources: The construction of large energy sources on local fuels; the creation of mini-CHPP on local fuels; the creation of wind farms; construction and restoration of mini hydro power plants; construction of facilities operating on biogas from waste from the agricultural and industrial production; 109 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures the creation of infrastructure for the collection, processing, utilization of local fuels based on wood, peat, rape; the creation of enterprises for processing of municipal solid waste; expanding the use of low-grade heat sources andsecondary energy resources; modernization of production in the order to avoid the direct combustion of natural gas (dryers, stoves, etc.). The main expected results of the implementation of the National Program are presented in Table 4.9. Table 4.9. Expected outcomes of the implementation of the National Energy Saving Program Outcomes Indicators Reduction of energy intensity of GDP (percent) 29–32 Share of own energy resources in the balance boiler and furnace fuel, 28 percent Saving of the fuel and energy resources in the republic, million TOE. 7,1–8,9 including: introduction of modern energy efficient and increasing the energy 2050–2400 efficiency of existing technologies, processes, equipment and materials,ths TOE commissioning of powergeneratingequipment, ths. TOE 950–1250 Transferring the heat inputfrom the departmental boilers to CHPP 330–450 ths. TOE improving the efficiency of boilers and process furnaces, thsTOE 500–700 implementation of pumping equipment and variable frequency 150–170 drives, thsTOE optimization of a heat supply, thsTOE 1000–1250 introduction of metering devices and automatic control in heating, 170–210 gas and water supply, thsTOE increase of thermal resistance enclosing constructions of buildings, 250–400 construction and housing, thsTOE using of automatic lighting control systems and energy efficient 200–250 lighting devices, sectional division of the lighting, thsTOE increasingtheuseoflocalfuels, waste, secondary, 2,2–2,3 alternativeandrenewableenergyresources,mln.TOE Other areas defined within thesectoral and regional energy 250–400 efficiency programs that developed annually,thsTOE Measures to improve energy efficiency, energy saving technologies and development of renewable energy sources fully comply with the provisions and requirements of the most important international agreements on climate change – UNFCCC and the KP. The energy saving measures planned for 2011-2015 will promote the compliance with restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions set by the above-named documents, and will be the basis for carrying out the work in the Republic of Belarus to reduce the specific consumption of fossil fuels. 110 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels are the main source of greenhouse gases in the Republic of Belarus. More than 65 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions and about 95 percent of CO2 emissions caused by burning fossil.Thereforethe any measures, aimed at improving energy efficiency in energy production and consumption and reducing the losses of energy, lead to a decrease in consumption of fossil fuels and to the almost proportional reduction of the harmful combustion products into the atmosphere. The quantitative reduction of the emissions into the atmosphere as a result of savings of the 1 TOE can be determined by "emission factors" - specific indicators that characterize the amount of the anthropogenic pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of fuel consumed. Minimum reduction in greenhouse gas emissions while saving 1 TOE is 1,646 tons of CO2. Environmental analysis of efficiency conducted on the basis of the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that in 2006-2009 due to the implementation of energy saving measures and increased using of the renewable energy, the reduction of the GHG emissions amounted to almost 12 mln. tons of CO2 equivalent . The GHG emission reduction will be 12.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent, or annually 2.6-2.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent (under the condition of planned fuel economy in 20112015 in the amount of 7.5-9.3 million TOE) In 2011-2015 it will be some changes in the structure of the consumed fuels - an increase in the use of coal and peat, which will lead to an increase in GHG emissions from power and industrial installations. With the substitution of 2 million TOE of natural gas by the coal and peat, the increase of emissions of thecarbon dioxide will be 3 mln. tons. The increased volume of use of the biomass (wood and wood waste) per 1 million TOE will weaken the impact by 50 percent. Thus, the cumulative effect of these factors (changes in the structure of consumption of fuel and realization of the energy saving measures) will provide a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 11 mln. tons of CO2 equivalent. The market mechanisms imposed by the Kyoto Protocol allow to attractan additional financial resources for the implementation of energy saving measures. After the expiration date of the Kyoto Protocol (after 2012) it is planned to enter into force a new climate agreement, which will expand the scope of their application. Thus, it is expected to establish the mechanisms, that would provide the additional funds not only for the performance of certain activities (projects) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also the whole complex of such measures that are implemented at the scale of a whole sector or branch of the economy. The amount of funding of the Program will be 8.6 bln.US dollars. 111 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The Law on Renewable Energy Sourceswas adopted in the Republic of Belarus (December 27, 2010 № 204-3). This Law regulates the relations connected with the use of the renewable energy sources for electricity production, its future consumption and other use, as well as production of the facilities for the use of renewable energy sources. The Law enshrines the power of the state bodies in the sphere of renewable energy, the rights and obligations of producers of the energy from the renewable energy sources. This law establishes the price on renewable energy sources and tariffs for energy produced from renewable energy sources.This Law determines the procedure of accounting of the renewable energy sources and installations on using of the renewable energy sources, as well as the inclusion of information about the sitesof the possible location of the installation in the state cadastre on renewable energy sources. In furtherance of this Law for the period 2010-2012 it was adopted a number of legislative acts related to renewable energy sources: Resolution of the Council of Ministers on June 24, 2011 № 836 "On Approval of the Regulation on the State Cadastre of renewable energy sources and the use of its data, the Regulation on the confirmation of the origin of energy produced from renewable energy sources, and the issuance of a certificate to confirm the origin of energy and on amendments to some decisions of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus "; Resolution of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection on August 29, 2011 № 29 "On approval of Instruction on some issues of conducting of the state cadastre of renewable energy." This instruction defines the requirements for the structure and content of the database of the state cadastreof renewable energy sources. Resolution of the Council of Ministers on July 19, 2010 № 1076 approved the State Program for the construction of energy sources on local fuels in 2010-2015. The main objective of the Program is to increase the share of local fuel and energy resources in the balance of the boiler and furnace fuel of the country mainly due to increasing volumes of use of the peat and wood fuel in the producing of electrical energy and heating. The objective of the Program is to commission the energy sources running on local fuels with theelectrical capacity of 32.65 MW, heating capacity - 1023.33 MW. The total funding of the Program is planned in the amount of 190mln. US Dollars. As a result of implementation of the Program will be put into operation the 160 power sources on local fuels with the electric capacity of 32.65 MW, thermal - 1023.33 MW, which provide the saving (substitution) of imported fuel and energy resources through the use of local fuels in the amount of about 450 thousand TOE. 112 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.10 - Implementation Plan for the Program for the construction of energy sources on local fuels in 2010-2015 Capacity of the energy The economic effect Total amount of source, MW (electric / (substitution of imported funding, mln. rubles thermal) fuel), TOE 2010 2,35/156,6 73 061 190 935,0 2011 6,4/168,88 84 552 80 639,0 2012 2,0/378,05 172 554 486 009,5 2013 15,5/182,5 72 636 508 380,0 2014 5,4/88,3 35 315 266 310,0 2015 1,0/49,0 18 656 85 040,0 Total for 2010– 32,65/1 023,33 456 774 1 617 313,5 2015 Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 10 May 2011 № 586 approved the National Program for the Development of local and renewable energy sources for 2011-2015. The aim of the Programis to increase the use of own energy resources and to develop of new trends in the field of energy in 2011-2015 for the Republic of Belarus with the increase in the share of local fuels and energy resources in the balance of the boiler and furnace fuel to 30 percent. The main directions - increasing the use of fuel wood and peat in energy production; the use of straw, municipal waste, sewage and secondary energy resourcesto produce electricity and heat; the introduction of biogas, wind and solar power plants, heat pumps; construction and renovation of hydroelectric power plants. The total expenditure for the implementation of the National Program is equivalent to 3455 mln. USDollars. In 2010, the use of local and renewable energy resources in the Republic of Belarus (except oil, secondary energy resources and petroleum gas) amounted to more than 3 million. TOE). We can predict the increase of this figure in 2015 to 5.7 million TOE (on 1.9 times), based on the data of the resource potential of local and renewable energy sources and the economic viability volume of their use. The measures in the sphere of development of the use of local and renewable energy sources meet the requirements of UNFCCC KP, they will contribute to compliance with the restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions set by the mentioned documents, and will be the basis for carrying out the work to reduce specific consumption of fossil fuelsin the Republic of Belarus. 113 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures As a result of the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources the total potential reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 should be around 2710 ths. tons of CO2, due to: • the use of biomass for fuel purposes (fuel wood, straw) - 1152 ths. tons of CO2; • the introduction of biogas technology -1046 ths. tons of CO2; • the construction of new and reconstruction of existing hydropower plants – 197 ths. tons of CO2; • the construction of wind power plants - 318ths. tons of CO2 By 2015, it is planned a significant increase the share of peat and petroleum coke in the fuel balance, which will be accompanied by an increase in carbon dioxide emissions (using 1 million TOE of peat allocatesthe emission of the 1,870 ths. tons of CO2, while energy using of 550 ths. TOE of the petroleum coke the emissions of carbon dioxide will increase by 480 ths. tonsof CO2).The impact of these emissions will be fully offset by a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in the implementation of the main directions of the National Program for the replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Using of other solid fuels, which are essential environmental pollutants (oil shale, brown coal) in 2011-2015 don’t plan. The National Program also doesn’t provide the commissioning of additional energy sources on lignin. Wood fuel is considered to be CO2 neutral. The amount of CO2 emitted from burning the wood chips and other wood fuels does not exceed the amount of CO2 absorbed during the growth of wood. Moreover, the amount of CO2formed by burning the timber is the same as in its natural decomposition. Thus, the cumulative effect of these factors can provide a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 360 ths. tons of CO2 equivalent. By the 09.01.2013 as a result of the implementation of the Program the following results were achieved (Table 4.11): Table 4.11 - Results of the implementation of the National Program for the Development of local and renewable energy sources for 2011-2015 1. Energy sources on local fuels Year of commissioning 2010 2011 2012 2. Biogasinstallations Year of commissioning The total capacity of energy sources (boilers), MW (thermal) 22,75 7,0 9,59 The total capacity of energy sources (mini CHPPs), MW (thermal / electrical) The total capacity of biogas The total capacity of biogas 114 6,0/2,4 1,54/1,26 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures installations of the agricultural organizations, MW (electric) 2010 2011 2012 3. Wind power plants Year of commissioning 2010 2011 2012 8,2 installations in wastewater treatment plants, MW (electric) 2,1 3,05 0,18 The total capacity of wind power plants, MW (electric) 0,016 1,712 0,80125 The next legislative act that regulates the relations in the field of renewable energy sources is the Program of construction of energy sources running on biogas for 2010-2015, adopted by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated June 9, 2010 № 885. The main activity of the Program is the construction of power plants operating on biogas from residues from agricultural and industrial production, municipal and household waste, sludge. The main goals and objectives of the Program are: • reducing the ecological impact on the environment; • production of biogas and using it to generate electricity and heat in order to replace the imported fuel and energy resources. As a result of implementation of the Program in the country will be put in operation the 38 biogas installations with total capacity of 37.9 MW, which will annually produce about 314 millionkW/h of electrical energy and to replace the imported natural gas in the amount of more than 105 ths. TOE. Total funding for the implementation of the Program will be about 100 million US dollars. Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 17 December 2010 № 1838 approved the State Program for the construction of hydroelectric power plants in 2011-2015 in the Republic of Belarus. Aims and objectives of the State Program:increasing the energy security of the country by replacing the imported fuel and energy resources by the renewable energy sources, reducing the environmental pressure caused by the activities of the fuel and energy complex. Expected results of the implementation of the State Program: power output on the hydroelectric power plants will reach 0.510 billion. KW/h per year by 2015, annual saving of the fuel and energy resources in relation to 2009 will be 120 ths. TOE. 115 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The territory of the Republic of Belarus is flat, which determines the development of hydropower with the use of potential of the low-pressure streams. To achieve the indicators of hydropower development it is planned to construct and reconstructthe 33 hydroelectric power plants with total capacity of 102.1 MW, including 20 micro hydropower plants with total capacity of 0.75 MW, 9 small and mini hydro power plants with total capacity of 2.34 MW and 4 large hydro power plants with the total capacity of 99 MW. The total annual output of electricity produced by this new HPP should be around 463 million KW/h. Taking into account the annual electricity generation at existing hydroelectric power plants, the total production of energy on hydroelectric power plantsof the republic in 2015 will be about 510 millionkW/h. The total fuel savingunder the condition of the commissioning of new hydroelectric power plants with the capacity of the 102.2 MW will be 120 ths. TOE. A further increase in hydroelectric electricity production will be implemented in 20162019 years with the phased introduction of large hydropower plants on the Dnieper and the Western Dvina rivers. The estimated annual output of electricity by the mentioned stations is 351.5 millionkW/h. So by 2016 the amount of the production of the technically feasible and economically viable energy will be510 million kW/h, by 2020 - 860 million kW/h. The total planned funding of projects implemented under the State Program will be 617.3 million US dollars. Environmental assessment of the State Program The operation of HPPs aren’t cause the emitting of pollutants into the atmosphere typical for the power plants operating on the fossil fuel. At the same time does not exclude the negative impact of hydropower plants on the environment and people's living conditions due to the possibility of flooding of adjacent lands.It is possible to change thermal and ice regime of rivers, soil and vegetation cover of the coastal areas, environmental conditions for amphibians, birds and fish. The assessment of the impact of hydropower plants on the environment in accordance with the legislation will be carried out during the design period in the development of justification of investmentsfor each object. The approximate volume of reducing emissions of pollutants into the air by building of the new hydropower plants with total capacity of 102.2 MW and annual power generation of about 460 million kW/h in comparison with emissions from CHPP operating on fossil fuel with the similar capacity is 230 700 tons, including sulfur dioxide - 850 tons, nitrogen oxide - 210 tons, carbon monoxide – 229 640 tons. 116 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures During the implementation of the Program the intermediate results were achieved: The total capacity of hydroelectric power plants, MW (electric) 0,42 0,48 17,245 Year of commission 2010 2011 2012 4.6.2 Industry Resolution of the Council of Ministers on July 5, 2012 № 622 approved the Program of the development of the industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020. The Program gives the evaluation of the development of the Belarusian industry at the present stage, determine the purposes, objectives, indicators and priorities for the development of the industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus for the period until 2020(including resource saving, rational use of available natural resources, deeper processing of raw materials, the formation of a "green" economy based on energy saving, implementation of environmental technologies, renewable and alternative sources of energy, effective waste treatment technologies), offer tools and mechanisms for their implementation. One of the priorities of the Program is the greening of industrial production. The aim of the greening of industry is to strengthen of the technological capacity of the industrial complex for its functioning on the environmental "green" principles, prevent (minimize) the harm caused by industrial activity for the environment and human health due to the introduction in the production process of advanced technologies and modern technics, effective environmental management while ensuring the planned increase in production. The main objectives: reduction in waste formation, wastewater discharges, GHG emissionsinto the environment per unit of raw materials, production capacity, output, energy production, the volume of the provided services; reducing the use of primary natural resources while increasing the share of secondary raw material resources, particularly in the pulp and paper industry, production of the ready-made metal products, non-metallic mineral products; minimizing the environmental risks and risks to human health arising at all stages of the operating of industrial products produced primarily in organizations of chemical, petrochemical, pharmaceutical and food industry. Targets: 117 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures to increase by 2020 the share of trapped and neutralized air pollutants from stationary sources up to 90 percent; to reduce in 2020 the GHG emissions by at least 10 percent below 1990 levels for the purpose of trading schemes of greenhouse gas emissions in international markets; to reduce by 2020 the emissions of pollutants into the air from stationary sources (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and NMVOC) at the rate of 0.2 tons per 1 billion rubles of GDP; to increase by 2020 the volume of water in the systems of recycling and repeated water supply by 2 percent; to increase in 2 times the number of industrial organizations that are certified to complying of the requirements of STB ISO 14001; to ensure the production of industrial products with eco-label at least 2 percent of the total volume. The total expenditure for the implementation of the Program taking into account the optimization of volume of the funding amounted to about 83,2-90,2 billion US dollars. The Conception of the development of the building complex of the Republic of Belarus for 2011 - 2020, approved by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus of 28.10.2010 N 1589. The Conception determines that the main purpose of the development of the building complex is to create a modern energy and resourcesefficiency, environmentally friendly buildings, new building materials that are competitive on the domestic and foreign markets and which are not conceding in quality to European. Implementation of this Conception will allow creating of construction products corresponding in quality with norms and standards of the European Union, compliance of the principles of sustainable development of the building complex, the defense and protection of the environment and otherwise. As a result of this Conceptionit is planned to achieve the following indicators of sustainable development of the building complex: labor productivity growth of 1.7 - 1.9 times, reduction of the materials consumption by 5 percent. The Comprehensive Program for the planning, construction and reconstruction of energy efficient residential buildings in the Republic of Belarus for 2009-2010 and until 2020, approved by the Council of Ministers dated June 1, 2009 N 706. The main objective of the program - ensuring reduction of specific consumption of fuel and energy resources for heating to 60 kW/h per sq.m per year and potentially up to 2020 up to 30-40 kW/h per sq.m per year through the use of new structural -technological and engineering solutions and engineering equipment. 118 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Within the framework of the Comprehensive Program the following priorities will be solved: development of new approaches in the planning of energy efficient residential houses that ensure the compliance with regulations of the thermal resistance of the enclosing structures, ventilation, specific consumption of thermal energy for heating residential houses; improving the quality of the construction of energy-efficient residential houses providing thermal insulation of the enclosing structures, increasing tightness of premises, assembly and installation of engineering equipment. 4.6.3 Transport 4.6.3.1 Road transport Resolution of the Council of Ministers of 24 December 2010 № 1886 adopted the State Program for the development of road transport the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015. The program is comprehensive and includes a list and a mechanism for the implementation of measures for the development and modernization of the automobile transportations of passengers and goods, as well as reduce the negative impact of road transport on the environment. The share of road transport in total emissions of pollutants into the air from mobile sources exceeds 84 percent.In order to reduce emissions the road transport operators conduct the considerable work to extend the use of vehicles of the higher environmental categories. The proportion of vehicles complying with technical provisions concerning harmful emissions and noise, as well as the requirements of environmental standards Euro-3, exceeds 30 percent, the Euro 4 - 7 percent, the Euro-5 - 3 percent.However, it is necessary to continue the implementation a set of measures to ensure the transport and environmental safety. In road transport of the republic it is done the work to reduce its harmful effects on the environment, life and health of the citizens of the republic. The main activities of road transport organizations in the field of reducing the harmful effects on the environment and human health are: reducing emissions of pollutants into the air from stationary and mobile sources; reduction of waste formation, its recovery and disposal; decreasing in volumes of emissions of the GHG and the ozone depleting substances to the atmosphere; rational use of land for the construction of transport infrastructure. Implementation of the State Program will ensure the emissions reduction of pollutants into the air with the exhaust gases by 1-2 percent by 2015 in relation to 2010. 119 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.6.3.2 Railway transport Railway transport the Republic of Belarus is the leading element of the transport system of the country and in the near future will play a dominant role in its economy. In general, the rolling stock meets the needs of the republic in the rail transport of goods and passengers, while ensuring the safety of trains.However, it does not fully meet the growing requirements of modern saving fuel and energy resources, the cost of technical operation, environment and other factors. Park of the locomotives, electric locomotives, diesel and electric trains has a longer service life. Depreciationoflocomotivesis 71.1 percent, electriclocomotives - 89.6, dieseltrains - 57.1, electrictrains - 87.3 percent.There is a significant amount of oil-filled equipment in operationthat does not meet modern standards of service and environmental requirements. To ensure sustainable power supply of hauling operationsand the requirements of ecology the high-voltage lines, remote control devices and other equipment supply must be replaced. As a result of implementation of the State Program for the Development of Railway Transport of the Republic of Belarus for 2011 - 2015 years, approved by the Council of Ministers of 20 December 2010 № 1851, the following results will be achieved: • increase in traffic of goods - 121.3 per cent; • reduction of energy intensity of GDP in rail transport by 29.5 per cent, which will reach the current level of implementation of the transportation process in energy intensity. Ecological effect of the Program: • reducing emissions of pollutants into the air from mobile sources by 20 percent; • increasing the volume of recycling and disposal of the formed oil sludge by 25-30 percent; • reduction of land area in the railroad precinct, contaminated by petroleum products, by 50-60 percent; • reduction of environmental pressure to adjacent to the railway area • reducing the formation of the oily waste by 10-12 percent; • reduction of water consumption by 5-10 percent. The expected outcomes correspond to the economic growth of the country, provided for in the Program of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015. For the implementation of environmental objectives of this program the funding from the Innovation Fund of the Ministry of Transport will be directed in the amount of - 5.7mln. USD; 2011 - 2.4; 2012 - 3.3 mln.USD. 120 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures 4.6.4 Agriculture In the agricultural sector, the key programs for the organization of reducing GHG emissions and increasing removals by sinks are the following: The State Program for sustainable rural development in the 2011 - 2015 years, approved by Presidential Decree dated August 1, 2011 № 342; The State Program of conservation and use of drained peatlands lands for 20112015, approved by the Council of Ministers dated August 31, 2010 № 1262; The Republican Program of reconstruction, technical reequipment and construction of complexes for growing pigs in 2011-2015, approved by the Council of Ministers dated May 5, 2011 № 568. The program documents include, in particular: utilization of biogas for energy purposes, promotion of organic farming using fertilizers produced in biogas plants, the preservation of protective forest plantations, creation of the forest strips; maintaining the hydrological regime that is optimal for plants by controlling the water regulating facilities. 4.6.5 Land use, land use change and forestry The forest fund of Belarus has more than 9.4 million hectares,the forest cover is 39%, the standing crop is estimated at 1.6 billion cubic meters. An annual height incrementis 31.4 million cubic meters of wood. The age structure of forests from the point of the economic evaluation is currently not very favorable. The juvenile and middle-aged stands dominateon forested lands (67.9%). The mature stands of wood species which influence on the size of the annual allowable cut and forest income are up 10.6% (at the optimal rate is 15-18%), of which the mature stands of coniferous species occupy 4.9%, broadleaf - 0.5 and softleaf - 5.2%. The State Program for Development of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus for 20112015 (approved by the Council of Ministers dated November 3, 2010 № 1626) was elaborated to the Program of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus for 2007-2011 (2006). The main purpose of the State Program is to achieve sustainable, cost-effective, environmentally responsible and socially oriented forest management. The main objectives of the State Program: modernization of forestry production by its technical and technological re-equipment, introduction of modern information technology and aerospace methods, using the new unified GIS technologies; 121 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures alignment of the age and species composition of forests; involving in economic circulation of the economically accessible wood resources within the approved annual allowable cut; improvement of technical equipment for the forest protection; using of the economically and environmentally efficient technologies for the utilization of wood waste formed during the logging operations, sawmill and woodworking. The implementation of the State Program will allow to increase the efficiency of forest management, its profitability by improving the productivity of forests, improving their age and species composition. The development of small-scale energy based on the use of wood fuel is one of the most important areas that reduce the share of the imported energy resources, increasing energy efficiency of the economy and the level of energy security of the country. Taking into account the creation of the energy sources using the local fuels,the annual volume of the production of the wood chips by the organizations under the Ministry of Forestry will be about 425.6 ths. TOE or 1 600cubic meters of trunk woodby 2015. The fuelwood, the residues from wood cuttingand wood-working, the wood of the fastgrowing species are planned to use as a raw material for the production of wood chips Fuelwood. Currently in the country the 6 million cubic meters of fuelwoodharvest, by 2020 it is planned to harvest the 7 millioncubic meters. The natural losses in forests should be used to increase the volume of fuelwood to 3.1 millionTOE in 2020 (that subscribed in the Conception of energy security of the Republic of Belarus). During the intermediate the 2-2.5 millioncubic meters of natural losses harvest annually. Residues from the wood cutting. Economically and environmentally efficient volume of using the wood residues for energy purposes is about 0.5 million cubic meters, because the part of wood-cutting residues is used for technological needs and remains in the forest to improve the soil fertility and conservation of biological diversity as required by the regulations and forest certification. Woodworking waste. The power of the sawmills and woodworking industries currently allows to receive and use annually for energy purposes up to 1.5 million cubic meters of the woodworking waste - the cheapest raw material for the production of wood chips. Timber of the fast-growing species (grey alder).The stand volume of the fast-growing alder suitable for use as a fertile material are about 18 million cubic meters. The annual volume of timber of the alder for woodfuel production may be about 1 million cubic meters. 122 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures The Ministry of Forestry has established the production and delivery of fuel wood to the existing energy sources with total capacity of 505 thousand cubic meters of wood chips per year. In order to ensure by the fuel the constructing energy sources it is planned to increase the capacity for the production of wood chipsby 2015 no less than 1.5 million cubic meters per year. In 2011-2015 for the implementation of the State Program will be spent funds in the amount of 1 622 500 mln. rubles. 4.6.6 Waste Every year in the country form about 4 million tons of municipal solid waste.The volumes of the collection of secondary material resources in 2011 amounted to 354.5 thousand tons (without metal scrap), or 13.3 per cent of all municipal solid waste. Organizations of housing and communal services operate the 3,007 facilities of the disposal of municipal solid waste (165 polygons, 2842 mini-polygons), 5 waste treatment plants, 5 sorting and transfer stations and 81 sorting line of the separately collected municipal waste.Separate collection of municipal solid waste by main types of secondary materials (glass, metal, plastic, paper, textiles) is provided in the entire multistoried building of urban settlements. Resolution of the Council of Ministers on 8 February 2013 № 97 approved theProgram of development of housing and communal services of the Republic of Belarus until 2015. The Program aims to increase the efficiency and reliability of housing and communal services, improving the quality of services through the implementation of social standards in the mandatory reduction of the cost of their provision. To achieve this goal the following tasks will be solved to 2016: replacement and modernization of heating networks to obtain savings of 430 thousand TOE; increasing the share of local fuels in the balance boiler and furnace fuels from 34.9 percent in 2012 to 54.5 percent in 2015; construction of 11 energy sources with total capacity of 14.7 MW running on biogas that is obtained by the processing of sewage sludge and organic part of municipal waste; construction waste recycling plants in the cities of Grodno, Vitebsk, Minsk, Bobruisk, Borisov, Orsha, and the second phase of a waste recycling plant in Mogilev. The program will provide sorting and recycling of municipal solid waste in the amount of not less than 1 mln. tons per year, will ensure the recovery of not less than 70 per cent of secondary material resources that are a recyclable part of municipal waste. Overall, the collection of secondary material resources will be more than 600 thousand tons per year. 123 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Financing of the Program will be funded by the state budget, local budgets, innovation and investment funds, organizations and other sources and will be more than 64 trillion rubles. 4.7 Monitoring the implementation of National Programs The state government bodies responsible for the execution of the programsmonitorof the above-mentioned state, national and sectoral programs. Typically the state government bodiesannually represent until 25 January or before February 25 of the year following the reporting year, a report on the implementation of a program to the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus. The mechanism of control is provided in details in each program. 4.8 Recommendations to improve the legislation of Belarus, regulating the formation of policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions and removals 1. When forming the future policies and measures of the Republic of Belarus aimed at reducing GHG emissions, it is necessary to implement paragraph 38.1 of the Conception of improving the legislation of Belarus, approved by Presidential Decree of 10 April 2002, according to which it should be prepared the Law "On protection of the climate." 2. The context of the proposed new international climate agreement and a number of international and foreign initiatives gives reason to believe that the policy of the Republic of Belarus in the sphere of reduction of GHG emissions should be based on a combination of public and legal principles and practices - for the purposes of regulation of relations in the field of issuing permits for GHG emissions, their inventory, keeping the state GHG inventory, valuation, planning and control in the field of climate protection and private law - in order to regulate the property relations within the framework of the turnover of carbon units as a special property, rights (quotas) on GHG emissions.An effective combination of the economic and administrative measures will form a mode of economic interest in the subjects of economic activities aimed at reducing the negative anthropogenic impact on the climate, will contribute to the implementation of the principles of "green economy" in Belarus. 3. There is no doubt that an important place in the policies and measures of the Republic of Belarus to reduce GHG emissions occupied and will remain to occupythe institutional administrative measures, it means those that are aimed at organizing the valuation of GHG emissions, GHG accounting as a result of human activity, absorption of GHG by sinks, projecting and planning, monitoring the compliance with legal requirements in this 124 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures area.Obviously that the development of a system of measures that reinforce the preferential treatment (tariff, tax, customs, investment), provides an attractive introduction of energy production, the implementation of low-carbon projects will require the special attention. 4. The main objectives of climate policy in the Republic of Belarusshould be: more efficient use of less polluting energy sources, creating a more "pure" and efficient transport system, promotion of business entities to increase environmental responsibility without compromising their competitiveness, ensuring environmentally sustainable planning of land use and agriculture, as well as creating favorable conditions for research and innovation. 5. Particular attention in the field of legal regulation should be paid to: • legal framework and procedures for the operation of the carbon market (legal regulation of emissions trading) at both the national and regional levels (eg. in the framework of the Customs Union, the European Economic Community); • legal conditions for the introduction of a carbon stimulating tax while providing tax breaks or full exemption from other taxes to increase energy efficiency and promote the use of renewable energy; establishing a regime of interest of business entities and individuals in improving the energy efficiency in industrial and domestic sphere, the attractiveness of the purchase of energy-efficient household appliances, purchase and use of vehicles with lower emissions of GHGs; • system of measures to introduce the labeling of energy consumption of the goods (household appliances, packaging incandescent lamps, car), classifying them according to the degree of energy efficiency, another carbon labeling. 4.8.1 Studying the feasibility of internal emissions trading system in the Republic of Belarus In the Republic of Belarus has established a regulatory legal framework for greenhouse gas emissions trading. So far, the possible directions of emissions trading were as follows: •international trade of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol; • domestic emissions trading between the enterprises of the republic; • emission trading in voluntary markets; • project-based mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. Participation in the second period of the Kyoto Protocol may make adjustments to the processing of the existing legal framework, and in the case of non-participation - to leave it unchanged, focusing on the voluntary markets or internal trading system that should follow from the relevant political decisions. 125 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Policies and Measures Issues of domestic emissions trading don’t practically regulate by in the Belarusian legislation. In the case of a positive decision on the introduction of the internal system of greenhouse gas emissions trading the main task will be the setting of the national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. On the basis of the Doha amendments, Republic of Belarus accepted the obligations to achieve in 2020 the level of 92% of emissions in relation to 1990 with "quantified obligations of limitation or reduction of the emission for the period 2013-2020". In the initial stage of creation of the internal system of greenhouse gas emissions trading it is necessary to establish a system of monitoring, reporting, verifying of greenhouse gas emissions (MRVsystem). Individual elements of this system already exist in national legislation. Developing a national plan of distribution of quotas, allocation mechanisms, trade, accounting, control, penalties, creation of responsible authorities and empowerment of existing one should also be legislatively fixedat the national level. However, first of all thedecision on the introduction of a national system of trade and the establishment of national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementation of the MRVsystemshould be taken. For the introduction of an internal emissions trading system in the Republic of Belarus should: • Carry out the process of implementing of the system by stages; • Provide accurate and detailed inventory of GHG, which is the first step in creating a system of emissions trading; • Inventory and distribution of free allowances must be conducted according to the procedure of the reporting and calculating theemissions; • The adoption of clear legislation; • Provide access to the bodies that control the system for the basic technical knowledge; • Establish the integrated rules regarding the toolof the independent verification from the first year of operation of the system in the Republic of Belarus • Ensure the independence of verifiers that conduct the checks of annual reports from the system operator and administrator; • Create in the system the accreditation body for verifiers; • Implementation of the electronic forms of documents and information in the initial stage of implementation of the system; • A single legal and tax definition of the unit of quotas for greenhouse gases under the emissions trading system to its full implementation. 126 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5 PROJECTIONS AND TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES 5.1 Projections of GHG emissions This chapter provides general information on the various scenarios of future trends in GHG emissions and removals based on existing national conditions, adopted policies and measures, as well as shows the dynamics of GHG emissions and removals which exclude implementation of such measures and policies. The GHG emission scenarios assume: • Projection of GHG emissions for the “without measure scenario”. This scenario excludes all energy saving policies and measures implemented, adopted or planned after the year of 1995 • Projection of GHG emissions for the “with measure scenario”. This scenario includes measures implemented according to the different sectors and adopted in the Republic of Belarus. • Projection for the “additional measure scenario”. This scenario includes additional measures that may be implemented in the Republic of Belarus in the financing presence. 5.1.1 Projection of GHG emission in fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Belarus The development scenarios for “Energy Industry”, “Manufacturing Industries and Construction”, “Transport”, “Agriculture” and its GHG emission projections are provided below. Commercial sector was included in the “Energy Industry” and “Transport” sectors ror the projections. 5.1.1.1 Energy Industry The following three scenarios were considered for the projections in the Energy Industry sector: − − − Without measure scenario; with measure scenario and Additional measure scenario. 127 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Scenarios were based on key development direction of energy system of Belarus specified in the Belorussian State Programme for development of energy system up to 2016, Energy Security Concept of the Republic of Belarus, Strategy for Development of Energy Potential the Republic of Belarus, as well as with taking into account the most probable tendency for sector development. It should be noted here that since 2015 Republic of Belarus planes to refuse from electricity import. The following combinations of development strategies for the sector and heat and electricity demand were considered for scenarios: Without measure scenario assumes that: − First Nuclear Power Plant Unit will be put into operation in 2019, Second Unit – in 2020 of 2 340 of MW of total capacity; − 3 combined-cycle plants (CCGT) power of 400 of MW each will be constructed at the Minsk TPP-5 – in 2012,, at Lukoml Hydroelectric Power station – in 2014, at Berezovskaya Hydroelectric Power station – in 2014; − 40 of MW WDPP will be constructed in 2016 and 50 of MW WDDP – in 2020; − 117 of MW HPP will be constructed in 2016; − Total capacity of station units will be 900 of MW in 2020; − Electricity capacity co-generation plants operated on local fuels will be 100 of MW in 2020, heat capacity will be 1 345 of MW; − Heat demand will be 76.5 mln of Gcal in 2015 and 81.9 mln of Gcal in 2020. With measure scenario assumes: − First Nuclear Power Plant Unit will be put into operation in 2019, Second Unit – in 2020 of 2 340 of MW of total capacity; − 3 combined-cycle plants (CCGT) power of 400 of MW each will be constructed at the Minsk TPP-5 – in 2012, at Lukoml Hydroelectric Power station – in 2014, at Berezovskaya Hydroelectric Power station – in 2014 − 40 of MW WDPP will be constructed in 2016 and 50 of MW WDDP – in 2020; − 117 of MW of HPP will be constructed in 2016; − Total capacity of station units will be 900 of MW in 2020; − Electricity capacity co-generation plants operated on local fuels will be 100 MW in 2020, heat capacity will be 1 345 of MW; − Heat demand will be 78.8 mln of Gcal in 2015 and 78.6 mln Gcal in 2020. Additional measure scenario: This scenario is based on similar assumptions as “with measures scenario”. However, in addition it was assumed that the following measures for more widespread adoption of renewable 128 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures energy sources and energy efficiency technologies will be in place: − − − additionally to planned WDPP 500 of MW WDPP will be constructed in 2025 additionally to planned Hydro Power Station (HPP) 100 of MW HPP will be put into operation in 2025; Heat demand will be 71.2 mln of Gcak in 2015 and 73.4 mln of Gcal in 2020. Figure 5.1 – Estimation and the GHG projections results for the Energy Industry sector up to 2020 5.1.1.2 Sector “Manufacture Industry and Construction” Regression model of relationship between GHG emissions from the primary energy resources consumption and economic development of the sectors was used to prepare of projections of GHG emissions associated with fuel combustion in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” and “Agriculture” sectors. This methodological approach primarily was selected due to availability of aggregate information on the development of this sectors for the period up to 2020. Relationship between the parameters of GDP and energy resources, energy resources and GHG emissions (correlation coefficients amounted to 0.98 and 0.9 for the parameters of GDP and energy resources, energy resources and GHG emissions, respectively), was established to analyse “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector; and it was decided to conduct more detailed analysis of the relationship (statistical relationships) between these parameters using 129 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures multiple time slots. Study of the correlation parameters was carried out for the periods of 19902008, 1990-2011., 1995-2008, 1995-2011. The choice of 1995 as a base year for a number of slots was conditioned by ending of financial and economic recession in the country and starting of economic rehabilitation in 1995. Since this year a large-scale implementation of targeted policies and measures aiming to increase energy efficiency, energy-saving technologies and renewable energy has began. Throughout the time series 1995-2011 GDP for the sector is characterized with constant growth, with the exception of 2009 when the global financial crisis has affected the Russian economy, and consequently caused a decline in production in Belarus. Table 5.1 – Correlation parameters 1995-2008 Correlation parameters (GDP0,97 energy resources) Correlation parameters (energy 0,994 resources - GHG) 1995-2011 1990-2008 1990-2011 0,90 0,91 0,88 0,994 0,964 0,969 As the Table 5.1 shows that it is observed the close relationship between the parameter for all time series, therefore, it faced with the task of finding the reveal the trends using the regression analysis method. The resulting regression equation enables to assess and project a level of fuel consumption and GHG emissions based on the known values of regressors. To find the regression parameters it was used the classical method of least squares. Impact Analysis of GDP-Energy Recourses To determine the sample which may be used in the modeling of regression analysis it is necessary to check its homoscedasticity and autocorrelation absence. For this purposes the Goldfeld-Quandt and Durbin-Watson tests were conducted respectively [1]. The Goldfeld-Quandt test showed satisfactory results for the three time slots, and the Durbin-Watson test – for only one. Therefore, for the construction of the linear regression equation and further analysis data for the 1995-2008 period was used. The regression equation, as well as the dynamics of GDP and energy resources in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” are presented in Figures 5.2-5.3. The regression coefficients of GDP- Energy Resources were: a = 2.494; b = 0.053. Data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and the CRF tables of the GHG Inventory were used to prepare analysis. 130 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Figure 5.2 – GDP and Energy Resources consumption trends in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector Figure 5.3 – Regression equation of GDP – Energy Resources in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector The importance of both the resulting linear regression equation and its coefficients was proved after graphing of the regression equation and evaluation its accuracy on the basis of the of determination coefficient (R2 = 0,94). Correlation ratio between the characteristics in the model was determined by using the elasticity coefficient, which shows change in percentage of 131 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures resultant characteristic in which the average level of the characteristic’s factor changes by 1%. With regard to our regression equation the elasticity coefficient of fuel consumption by GDP was 0.35. Therefore, fuel consumption will increase by 0.35% while GDP will grow up by 1%. According to the Programme of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011-2015 the GDP growth in the end of 2015 should amounted to 62-68% compared to 2010, which corresponds to the average annual GDP growth by 10,1-10,9% . Trend analysis of GDP growth for the period 1995-2010 shows that GDP growth for the 5-year period is an average of 40-43%: for 1995-2000 – of 35.8% (average annual growth - 6.3%); for the period 2000-2005 – of 43.4% (average annual growth - 7.5%); for the period 2005-2010 - 42% (average annual growth - 7.3%). According to data of National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus in 2011 the GDP growth in comparable prices amounted to 5.5%, in 2012 1.7%, in 2013 - 0.9%, in 2014 - 1.7% (by January-November 2013). According to the plan of socio-economic development for 2015 (Decree of Precedent on 1 December 2014 # 550) the GDP growth rates are approved from 0.2 to 0.7%. Thus, there is a lag in real GDP growth rates behind planned GDP growth rates. Therefore, to predict energy resources consumption in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction" sector it is assumed that the average annual GDP growth in the period 2015-2020 will be no more than 3%, the sectoral GDP growth rate will equal to the country's GDP, and the coefficient of elasticity will remain unchanged until the end of the forecast period. Correlation analysis between Energy Recourses and GHG Correlation analysis between Energy Resources and GHG is conducted using similar correlation analysis between the GDP and Energy Resources. The Goldfeld-Quandt test showed satisfactory results for all four originally selected slots (1995-2008, 1995-2011, 1990-2008, 2000-2008). However, experimental value of Durbin-Watson criterion for all four slots was lower than interval limit of criterion which is evidence of probability of residual autocorrelation in the regression model, as well as the inability to use the obtained regression equations. In this regard, it was decided to increase a sample of slots. For 2000-2008 time series the experimental value of the Durbin-Watson test is within the range of upper and lowers critical limits that doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to make the right decision. In this situation, more researches are needed. For 2000-2011 the time series the experimental value of the Durbin-Watson test is higher than its upper critical limit, therefore the hypothesis of independence of regression residuals are accurate. That is why data for 2000-2011 time series should be used in the linear regression equation and further analysis. The regression equation, as well as GHG emission and energy resources trends in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector are presented in 132 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures the Figures 5.4-5.5. The regression coefficients for Energy Resources – GHG are as follows: a = 0.620; b = 1,709. Data of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and the CRF tables of the GHG inventory were used to perform analysis. Figure 5.4 – Energy Resources and GHG trends in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector The hypothesis on the impotence of the regression equation both for Energy ResourcesGHG and its coefficients in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector was rewired after graphing the regression equation, as well as evaluation of its accuracy using the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0,99). Correlation ration of model characteristics is determined by using the coefficient of elasticity (Ei = 0.92). Hence, energy resources level will increase by 1% while GHG emissions will increase by 0.92%. Projection of GHG emissions is provided in the figure 5.6. 133 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Figure 5.5 – Regression equation for Energy Resources and GHG in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector Figure 5.6 – Projection of GHG emissions in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector 5.1.1.3 Transport sector Projection of GHG emissions in Transport sector is developed on the basis of scenarios for cargo and passengers transportation demand –“Trend development” scenario and “State Programme” Scenario which are described below in the “Methodology” chapter in the “Projection for cargo and passengers transportation demand” section. 134 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Рисунок 5.7 – Projection of GHG emissions in Transport sector (Bus and Railway Cargo and passenger transportation) up to 2020 5.1.1.4 Agriculture sector Projection of GHG emissions for Agriculture sector was prepared using regression model. The only one difference from the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” was the presence of two sources of GHG emissions that characterized the activity in the sector - the fuel combustion from agricultural activities (related to energy) and the enteric fermentation from cattle (depending on the number of cattle and milk production), manure management (depending on the level of intensity of livestock and crops), agricultural soils (depending on the level of intensity of crops and arable peatlands) which does not included in the energy sector. Therefore, total GHG emission values were used for regression model in the sector. When correlation between GDP and GHG emissions in the agriculture sector was determined (correlation coefficient is 0.8 for 2001-2011) it was decided to conduct detailed correlation analysis (statistical analysis) between parameters using several time series. Research for parameters correlation was conducted for 2001-2008 and 2001-2011. Choice of 2001 as a base year was dictated by the following factors: start in growing of agricultural production [2] after recession period (1990-1998), increasing in capital investments for development of agricultural complex, start in implementation of number of country’s programmes aiming to sustainable development and increasing of agricultural production efficiency. Table 5.2 – Correlation coefficient 2001-2008 0,95 Correlation coefficient (GDP-GHG) 135 2001-2011 0,8 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures As the table 5.2 shows close correlation between parameters is observed for both slots, therefore a problem becomes to determine precise type of correlation using of regression analysis method. Resulting regression equation will give possibility for analysis and GHG emission projection based on known regressor values. To find the regression parameters classical method was used. Correlation analysis between GDP-GHG Correlation analysis between GDP-GHG is similar with correlation analysis between GDP - Energy Resources and Energy Resources – GHG in the “Manufacture Industry and Construction” sector. To determine the sample which may be used to perform a regression analysis model it should be rewired its non-homoscedasticity and residuals autocorrelation using Goldfeld-Quandt test and Durbin-Watson respectively. The Goldfeld-Quandt test showed satisfactory results for originally selected two intervals (2001-2008, 2001-2011). For 2000-2011 time series the experimental value of the DurbinWatson test is within the range of upper and lowers critical limits that doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to make the right decision. In this situation, more researches are needed. For 2000-2008 time series the experimental value of the Durbin-Watson test is higher than its upper critical limit and therefore the hypothesis of independence of regression residuals are accurate. Hence, for graphing of the linear regression equation and further analysis it should be used data for 20002008 time series. The regression equation, as well as GHG emission and GDP trends in the agriculture sector are provided in the figures 5.8-5.9. GDP-GHG regression coefficients are as follows: а=18.48; b=0.723. Data of National Statistical Committee and CRF tables of GHG inventory were used for analysis. 136 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Figure 5.8 – GDP and GHG trends in the agriculture sector Figure 5.9 – GDP – GHG regression equation in the agriculture sector The hypothesis on the impotence of the regression equation and its coefficients was rewired and confirmed after graphing the regression equation, as well as evaluation of its accuracy using the coefficient of determination (R2 = 0,9). After checking the statistical importance of the equation importance of the regression coefficients was carried out and recognized as important which confirms the possibility of using 137 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures the resulting equation to calculate the predicted values of resultant variable using a known value of factorial characteristic. Close correlation between the characteristics in the model is determined by using an elasticity coefficient of (Ei = 0.273). Hence, level of energy resources will increase by 1% while GHG emissions will grow up by 0.273%. Projection of GHG emission level in the agriculture sector was prepared based on assumption that annual GDP growth will be no more than 3% in the 2015-2020 period, the sectoral GDP growth rate will equal to the country's GDP, and the coefficient of elasticity will remain unchanged until the end of the forecast period. Actual and predicted GHG emissions for 2005-2020 are provided in the figure 5.10. Figure 5.10 – Projection of GHG emission in the agriculture sector (energy) 5.1.1.5 Commercial sector GHG emissions in the Commercial sector (fuel consumption in the Commercial sector) in the national statistical reporting are presented as sum of categories such as “Trade and Public Food”, “Commercial activities”, “Municipal Services”, etc. and included in the “Energy Industry” and “Transport” sectors. 5.1.1.6 Other sectors Analysis of GHG emissions from this sector shows that there is a slight increase of emissions (from 654.4 Gg in CO2 eqv. to 674.4 Gg in CO2 eqv.) in the 2000-2010 period and annual emissions amounted to 0.61%. As it is impossible to identify a key driver of increasing of 138 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures GHG emissions in this sector, comparable tendency in growing of GHG emissions was assumed up to 2020. The results of projections of total GHG emissions in the Energy sector with taking into account various scenarios for “Energy Industry”, “Transport”, as well as different levels for heat and electricity demands in the country are presented in the figure 5.11. Figure 5.11- Projection of total GHG emissions in the Energy sector for various scenarios Based on these results we can conclude that the difference between the maximum “with measures” scenario, and the minimum “with additional measures” scenario is 4 million tons in CO2-eq in 2020. Total difference for 2013-2020 period will amount to 19.9 million tons in CO2eq. 139 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.1.2 Projection of GHG emission in “Industrial Processes” sector Projection of GHG emissions in Industrial Processes sector is also based on described above econometric modeling methods. To project GHG emissions in the sector Industrial Processes sector the average annual GDP growth in the period 2015-2020 gg. be no more than 3%, the growth rate of sectoral GDP growth rate will be equal to the country's GDP, and the coefficient of elasticity will remain unchanged until the end of the forecast period are also assumed. Projection of GHG emissions for 2005-2020 are provided below in the figure 5.12. Figure 5.12 – Projection of GHG emission in Industrial Processes sector 5.1.3 Projection of GHG emissions in the “Solvents and Other Products Use” sector GHG emission analysis in the Solvents and Other Products Use sector” shows a lack of a clearly expressed tendency in growth or reduction of GHG emissions. GHG emissions in this sector in 2005 decreased by 9% compared to 2000, however in 2010 increased by 79% compared to 2005 and annual growth rate is 15.39%. During the period 2000 - 2010 both growth and decline in greenhouse gas emissions were observed. To project GHG emissions in this sector it was assumed that GHG emissions will be characterized by positive dynamics of growth up to 2020 with an average annual value for 2005- 2010 (15.39%). 140 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.1.4 Projection of GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector Projection of GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector was prepared based on total GHG emissions in the sector from following categories: fuel combustion activities in agriculture sector (related to energy) and the enteric fermentation from cattle (depending on the number of cattle and milk production), manure management (depending on the level of intensity of livestock and crops), agricultural soil (depending on the level of intensity of crop and arable peatlands). General analysis in this sector is provided in Section 5.1.1.4. Projection of GHG emissions for 2005-2020 is presented in the figure 5.13. Figure 4.13– Projection of GHG emissions in the Agriculture sector 5.1.5 Projection of GHG emissions and Removals in the LULUCF sector To prepare projections in the LULUCF sector for all scenarios it was assumed that the average value of emissions/removals will amount to 27 mln tons in CO2 equivalent. Since 1990 total value of emission/removals in this sector has ranged from 22.3 to 31.7 mln tons in CO2 equivalent. Any tendency in changes of emissions/removals was not identified. Therefore, it was decided to use conservative average value for the period/ 5.1.6 Projection of GHG emissions in Waste sector Analysis of emissions in this sector shows that in the period 2000-2011 a significant increase (from 2955.6 Gg in CO2-eq. to 6486.97 Gg in CO2-eq.) with an average of value of annual growth by 10.86% was observed. Trend analysis for the period 2005-2011 shows a slight decrease in the growth rate (from 4620.24 Gg in CO2-eq. to Gg in CO2-eq.) which corresponds to 141 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures an average annual growth by 6.73%. For projections of emissions in this sector it was assumed that the growth rate of GHG emissions in this sector up to 2020 will be amounted to the average value of the growth rate for the two reporting periods and accounted for 8.8%. While retaining this trend for the period 2012-2020 GHG emissions in this sector will amount to 9098 Gg in CO2-eq. in 2015 and 13 855 Gg in CO2-eq. in 2020. Summary of the projections data of GHG emissions for various scenarios by the sectors is provided in the table 5.3. 142 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Table 5.3 – Summary of the projections data of GHG emissions for different scenarios by the sectors Сектор Total GHG emissions Without measure scenario With measure scenario Additional measure scenario 1. Energy Without measure scenario With measure scenario Additional measure scenario 1.1 Energy Industry 1.1.а Without measure scenario 1.1.b With measure scenario 1.1.c Additional measure scenario 1.2. Manufacture Industry and Construction 1.3 Transport 1.3.а Trend Development scenario 1.3.b State Programme scenario 1.4 Agriculture (Energy) 1.5 Other sectors (Energy) 2. Industrial Processes 3. Solvents and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture 5. LULUCF 6. Waste 1995 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 83 064 86 562 79 089 130 042 89 303 165 221 94 837 173 279 98 160 179 990 100 729 186 834 103 163 193 463 105 516 206 963 102 218 79 089 89 303 94 465 97 593 99 677 101 855 103 939 99 530 58 225 58 225 59 832 52 684 89 886 56 442 114 202 58 089 119 772 60 370 124 411 61 827 129 141 63 077 133 723 64 166 143 055 58 071 58 225 52 684 56 442 57 717 59 803 60 775 61 769 62 589 55 383 33 570 35 002 52 583 66 808 70 066 72 780 75 547 78 227 83 686 33 570 30 579 31 773 31 899 33 458 34 186 34 701 35 045 27 432 33 570 30 579 31 773 31 527 32 891 33 134 33 393 33 468 24 744 6 447 6 767 8 116 8 085 8 164 8 244 8 325 8 407 8 573 4 841 3 132 5 100 7 312 7 750 8 189 8 627 9 068 9 955 4 841 3 132 5 100 6 815 7 132 7 448 7 765 8 082 8 715 2 633 10 547 2 033 2 925 9 711 2 595 1 797 8 235 4 057 1 566 8 089 4 191 1 578 8 163 4 263 1 591 8 240 4 336 1 604 8 318 4 411 1 617 8 398 4 486 1 644 8 566 4 642 62 76 122 179 198 217 236 254 292 30 645 -31 222 2 138 20 845 -30903 2 956 22 587 -30179 6 183 24 023 -27 027 8 354 24 241 -27 027 9 089 24 460 -27 027 9 889 24 681 -27 027 10 759 24 905 -27 027 11 705 25 357 -27 027 12 735 143 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.2 Aggregate effect of policies and measures The results of the projection of values of total GHG emissions with taking into account various scenarios are provided in the Figure 5.14 and Tables 5.6 - 5.8. During the period 1990 2012 years actual emissions according to a National GHG Inventory Report of the Republic of Belarus for 2012 were presented (Table 5.5). Differences between predicted are caused by a variety of scenarios for the “Energy Industry” and “Transport” sectors which have a significant impact on total national GHG emissions. Figure 5.14 – Projection results of total GHG emissions for various development scenarios in the Republic of Belarus up to 2020 Table 5.4 shows a comparison in emissions for different scenarios, as well as a comparison with the “Since 1995 without measures” scenario that describes the situation what might have happen with GHG emissions if no measures to improve energy efficiency in the Republic of Belarus, no measures for the use of renewable energy sources and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be implemented and adopted, however, economy would be grew at the same rate. Table 5.4 – Comparison between GHG emissions for various scenarios, Gg in СO2 equivalent 144 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Without measure scenario With measure scenario 2000 79 165,1 79 165,1 2005 84 173,7 84 173,7 2010 89 426 89 426 2015 99 596 98 160 2020 103 787 102 218 Additional measure scenario 79 165,1 84 173,7 89 426 97 593 99 530 Since 1995 without measures scenario 86 562 101 000 130 042 173 279 206 963 Structure of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus is provided in the figure 5.15. 5.15. Figure 5.15 – Structure of GHG emissions by gages up to 2020. 145 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Table 5.5 – Data on GHG emissions by sectors and gases for 2000-2010, Gg 2000 Sector СО2 CH4 N2O Energy 50 758,78 1 810,06 115,23 Industrial Processes 2 560,50 33,84 0,63 LULUCF -30 931,92 Waste Total emissions 22 387,36 HFCs 9,35 SF6 0,41 Total СО2 CH4 N2O 52 684,07 53 258,18 1 933,33 120,02 2 604,72 3 411,58 44,33 1,06 76,04 76,04 6 854,88 13 989,82 20 844,70 8,16 20,98 -30 902,78 2 723,07 232,50 2 955,57 11 430,01 14 435,20 Solvents Agriculture 2005 9,35 0,41 48 262,32 SF6 Total Continuation the table 5.5 – Data on GHG emissions by sectors and gases for 2000-2010, Gg Sector 2010 СО2 CH4 N2O Energy 54 279,33 2 038,51 123,75 Industrial Processes 4 018,63 56,86 1,15 LULUCF -30 202,73 Waste Total emissions 28 095,23 56 441,59 13,10 2,42 4 092,17 122,44 122,44 7 154,80 15 431,77 22 586,57 4,82 18,74 -30 179,18 5 971,72 211,41 6 183,13 15 226,70 15 909,26 Solvents Agriculture HFCs 13,10 2,42 59 246,72 146 -26 231,36 30 438,41 HFCs SF6 Total 55 311,53 26,19 1,48 3 484,65 69,19 69,19 6 751,05 13 937,05 20 688,10 3,77 17,60 -26 209,98 4 387,74 232,50 4 620,24 13 120,23 14 377,43 26,19 1,48 57 963,74 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Table 5.6 – Projection of emissions “Without measure scenario” by sectors and gases for 2015-2020 2015 Sector СО2 CH4 N2O Energy 59 488,74 2 181,11 136,22 Industrial Processes 4 179,66 56,54 1,07 LULUCF -27 050,00 Waste Total emissions 36 618,40 HFCs 23,55 SF6 1,80 Total СО2 CH4 N2O 61 806,06 57 403,77 2 104,67 131,44 4 262,62 4 551,70 61,57 1,17 197,82 197,82 7 847,20 16 393,54 24 240,74 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 8 793,79 295,40 9 089,19 18 883,63 17 042,06 Solvents Agriculture 2020 23,55 1,80 72 569,44 147 -27 050,00 34 905,48 HFCs SF6 Total 59 639,88 25,65 1,96 4 642,04 292,05 292,05 8 208,65 17 148,67 25 357,32 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 13 440,06 415,67 13 855,73 23 819,95 18 007,00 25,65 1,96 76 760,03 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Table 5.7 – Projection of emissions “With measure scenario” by sectors and gases for 2015-2020 2015 Sector СО2 CH4 N2O Energy 58 106,58 2 130,43 133,05 Industrial Processes 4 179,66 56,54 1,07 LULUCF -27 050,00 Waste Total emissions 35 236,24 HFCs 23,55 SF6 1,80 Total СО2 CH4 N2O 60 370,06 55 893,60 2 049,30 127,99 4 262,62 4 551,70 61,57 1,17 197,82 197,82 7 847,20 16 393,54 24 240,74 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 8 793,79 295,40 9 089,19 18 832,96 17 038,89 Solvents Agriculture 2020 23,55 1,80 71 133,44 -27 050,00 33 395,30 HFCs SF6 Total 58 070,88 25,65 1,96 4 642,04 292,05 292,05 8 208,65 17 148,67 25 357,32 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 13 440,06 415,67 13 855,73 23 764,58 18 003,54 25,65 1,96 75 191,03 HFCs SF6 Total Table 5.8 – Projection of emissions “With additional measure scenario” by sectors and gases for 2015-2020 2015 Sector СО2 CH4 N2O Energy 57 560,84 2 110,42 131,80 Industrial Processes 4 179,66 56,54 1,07 LULUCF -27 050,00 Waste Total emissions 34 690,50 HFCs 23,55 SF6 1,80 Total СО2 CH4 N2O 59 803,06 53 306,38 1 954,44 122,06 4 262,62 4 551,70 61,57 1,17 197,82 197,82 7 847,20 16 393,54 24 240,74 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 8 793,79 295,40 9 089,19 18 812,95 17 037,64 Solvents Agriculture 2020 23,55 1,80 70 566,44 148 -27 050,00 30 808,09 55 382,88 25,65 1,96 4 642,04 292,05 292,05 8 208,65 17 148,67 25 357,32 5,00 18,00 -27 027,00 13 440,06 415,67 13 855,73 23 669,72 17 997,62 25,65 1,96 72 503,03 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.3 Methodology According to the IPCC Guidelines for the preparation of National Communications of Annex I Parties (decision 4/CP.5) the main objective of this chapter is to provide information on future tendencies of GHG emissions and removals taking into account national circumstances, implemented and adopted polices and measure. It is also recommended to demonstrate trends of GHG emissions excluding such measures and policies. As it has already mentioned above, the scenarios of GHG emissions assumed: − Projection of GHG emissions for the “without measure scenario”. This scenario excludes all energy saving policies and measures implemented, adopted or planned after the year of 1995 − Projection of GHG emissions for the “with measure scenario”. This scenario includes measures implemented according to the different sectoral development programmes and adopted in the Republic of Belarus. − Projection for the “additional measure scenario”. This scenario includes additional measures that may be implemented in the Republic of Belarus in the financing presence. Projections of GHG emissions were prepared using modeling instruments (LEAP and BALANCE) for individual sectors, on the basis of econometric modeling methods (regression analysis), as well on expert judgments. Using of these approaches was managed by availability of aggregated information on the development of individual sectors up to 2020, as well as the lack of the required statistical data. According to the National GHG Inventory Report of the Republic of Belarus for 2012 [3] the major source of GHG emissions in the Republic of Belarus (62% of national total emissions) is energy sector that accounted about for 55.3 mln tons in CO2 equivalent. Taking into account the significance of this source of GHG emissions and its impact on the trend of GHG emissions, as well as assuming heightened ratio of development of this sector for the industry growth the methodology for the projection and estimates of GHG emissions in the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Belarus, as well as for the estimates of main GHG tendencies in Energy sector (fuel and Energy complex) was developed. 149 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.3.1 Projection of electricity demand The Energy Security Concept considers three scenarios for electricity demand minimum, medium and intensive. By comparison of these scenarios with the available actual data, as well as with projection of demand that is included in the Belarusian Energy System State Development Program up to 2016 it may be concluded that the most feasible scenario of electricity demand will be minimal scenario. This scenario assumes that electricity demand up to 2020 will increase by 42.9 billion KWh with an average annual growth rate of 1.4%. 5.3.2 Projection of heat demand The Energy Security Concept considers three scenarios for heat demand - minimum, medium and intensive. The Energy Security Concept considers three scenarios for electricity demand - minimum, medium and intensive. By comparison of these scenarios with the available actual data, as well as with projection of demand that is included in the Belarusian Energy System State Development Program up to 2016 it may be concluded that the most feasible scenario of heat demand will be minimal scenario. This scenario assumes that heat demand up to 2020 will increase to 81 million Gcal. It may be considered an alternative scenario of heat demand on the basis of data included in the Comprehensive Program for Development and Construction of Energy-efficient Buildings, as well as in the new Concept of Municipal Policy, and the Draft of the Comprehensive Program for the Development of Energy-efficient Construction, Reconstruction and Modernization of the Buildings for 2013- 2015. and up to 2020. Taking into account the implementation of these programs, as well as additional measures heat consumption up to 2020 will range from 73.4 million Gcal to 78.6 million Gcal. For the projection it was assumed that heat consumption for the production and operational proposes and loses up to 2020 will remain at average level for 2000 – 2010. 5.3.3 Projection of public fuel consumption demand As intensive growth in population in the next 10 years is not expected, it was assumed that consumption of natural gas, peat, coal and wood will remain at a constant level for the predicted period. For modeling of the period up to 2020 last year data in statistical reporting (2012) was used. 150 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures 5.3.4 Projection of cargo and passengers transportation demand The down or up trend in passenger public transportation by rail and road is observed in last years in the Republic of Belarus. The decrease in passenger traffic was caused by increasing of well-being which led to the growth of automobilization in the country that in turn had a direct impact on the reduction of public passenger traffic and led to volatile changes in bus passenger traffic. The total bus and rail passenger traffic during 2000-2011 period decreased on an average by 2.5% annually. However, the increase in prices of motor leads to instability in the use of private vehicles. Taking into account that over the last years tourism sector was under development, therefore it may be considered the assumption that public passenger traffic up to 2020 will increase approximately to the level of 2004-2005 (which corresponds to an average annual growth of rail transport by 5%, the bus - by 0.5% since 2011) and will continue to grow up at the same rate up to 2020. Changes in the structure of fuel consumption and the reduction of energy transportation are not assumed. Passenger traffic of electrical transport is unstable. Based on a conservative approach it was assumed that since 2011 passenger traffic of tram and trolleybus transport will increase annually at an average by 0.5%, and Metro - 2%. Also, it was assumed that this trend will continue up to 2020. With regard to the trend changes in passenger traffic of private road transport relevant statistical data on fuel consumption and their impact on the resultant values of passenger traffic was taken into account for the analysis. During 2005-2012 clear trend of growth or decline in passenger traffic of private transport is not observed (for example, in the period 2007-2008; 2009-2010 there was an increase by 16% and 5.8%, respectively, and in 2006-2007, 2008-2009 reduction by -5% and -16.5% respectively). Based on these trends, as well as taking into account that the public automobilization level in the country has already exceeded its level in some Western European countries, it was assumed that in the period 2011-2020 passenger traffic of private transport will be characterized with growth by 2%. Fuel consumption and its structure will not change over the predicted period. Two scenarios were considered for the projections of passenger and cargo turnover demand. Scenario 1 “Trend development” is based on analysis of the tendencies in the cargo transportation for last 11 years. According to analysis of growth rates of cargo turnover of rail and road transport during the period 2000-2011 it was assumed that in the period 2012-2020 the 151 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures average annual growth of cargo turnover will be 6.9%. Also, it was assumed that the fuel consumption and its structure will not change during predicted period. Scenario 2 “State Programme” up to 2015 was developed taking into account development proggrames for transport sector, as well as on the basis of assumptions that all programme’s targets will be observed in the period 2015-2020. Thus, the cargo turnover of road transport for the period 2012-2020 will increase annually at an average by of 13.7%, and the train cargo turnover - 2%. Therefore, an average annual growth of cargo transportation will be about 5%. It was assumed that the trend of cargo transportation in all other organizations will be similar to the above mentioned growth rates and will remain up to 2020. Tendencies associated with changes in passenger traffic of public and private transport during 2011-2020 period will be the same for two scenarios. Changes in fuel consumption structure and decrease in energy intensity are not assumed during the predicted period. According to the conservative approach “Trend Development” Scenario 1 was considered for the projection of country’s GHG emissions Table 5.9 summarizes key assumptions for the projections of GHG emissions for the period up to 2020. It should be noted that the projection of public fuel demand was assumed at least not increasing. That is caused by that rural population consumes major part of fuels for heating of individual houses. However, currently the share of rural population is decreasing, and therefore its demand for energy resources is reduced respectively in the Republic of Belarus. From other site the increasing tendency in construction of individual houses in towns is observed in Belarus, and demand for energy recourses is increased accordingly. Both these tendencies are approximately balanced each other, therefore a conservative approach was used to project of public fuel demand assuming that demand will not increase. Table 5.9 – Main assumption for the projections Historical data Projected data 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 GDP, bln rubles (in 2010 prices) 92 295.3 59 562.8 80 868.9 116 152.1 164 476.1 186 336.7 216 015.3 Electricity demand, mln. kWh 48 955.0 32 077.0 33 312.0 34 997.0 37 590.0 40 030.0 42 900.0 Heat demand, mln. Gcal 111.3 72.7 69.1 73.5 72.5 75.4 78.6 5 636.0 6 110.0 6 150.0 6 150.0 Public Fuel demand, ths tonns of fuel oil equivalent 152 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Projections and total effect policies and measures Historical data Projected data 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Cargo turnover demand, mln. ton-km, (road and railway transport) 36 451 35 049 36 451 52 910 62 247 83 050 104 165 Passenger traffic demand, mln. pkm (railway, road, tram, trolleybus, metro transportation) 36 635 21 815 31 845 23 651 21 813 23 242 25 630 15 480 19 338 20 885 22 820 Passenger traffic demand, mln. pkm (private transport) 153 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 6 Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures Vulnerability of any system – economic, social or ecological – to climatic changes is a direct function of magnitude of frequency of harmful effects (in this case of climate change) and also of sensitivity and adapted capacity of a system to these effects. In general, vulnerability may be defined as a final result of the climate change impact on the above systems. In this case, sensitivity is the system’s response to the impact, while the adaptive capacity is the system’s capacity to absorb negative impact. The degree of meteorological vulnerability of the Republic of Belarus determined through calculation of the dimensionless complex index (coefficient) accounting the observed extremums of the most critical meteorological parameters (temperature, precipitation and wind) and specifics of their statistical distributions is assessed as “relatively high”. The degree of influence of hydrometeorological conditions differs depending on the character of the production activity and technological processes. Specific sectors of the Belarusian economy are characterized by different degrees of vulnerability to hydrometeorological events, i.e. their own individual set of unfavorable meteorological conditions. The degree of weather dependence of the Belarusian economy is defined as a total share of the most weather-dependent sectors in the GDP. According to the experts’ assessments, the list of these sectors includes the agricultural and forestry sectors (10.4% of GDP), fuel and energy complex (6.5%), construction sector (7.5%), transport and communication (11.3%), housing sector (2.9%) and public utilities sector (2.9% GDP). Weather-dependent sectors contribute over 41% to the Belarus’ GDP. Agriculture is the most weather-dependent sector of the Belarusian economy since its exposure to the impact of extreme weather events defines to the great extent cumulative damage to the country’s economy. The assessment of distribution of damage inflicted to the country’s economy sectors by dangerous and natural hydrometeorological events are provided in Figure 6.1. 154 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures Figure 6.1 – Comparative diagram of climate change-related damage to most vulnerable Belarusian economy sectors Agriculture Forestry Construction Fuel and energy complex Housing and public utilities Transport The agricultural production is affected most by possible climate change. Thus, higher probability of low crop yield as a result of increase in frequency and recurrence of droughts on the territory of a number of regions, growth phase shift and insufficient soil moisture supply during the spring season, worsening of the phytosanitary conditions and invasive phytophag species and crop loss caused by increase in frequency of unfavorable hydrometeorological events may constitute the highest threat. Another sector being most vulnerable to the climate change is forestry. Even now, the shift in areas of some forest plant species, increased frequency of diseases and fires and change in the hydrological regime in a number of regions are observed in this sector. Unfavorable meteorological events result in the loss of timber reserve as they cause windfall. The reduced winter harvesting period due to shallow soil freezing and early and frequent thaws influences the forest product cost. Water resources are also highly vulnerable to the climate change. Water supply measures are time-intensive, therefore, large-scale water management projects need to be planned about 25 years in advance, and commissioning of these projects should outrun water demand beyond a 1015-year period. 155 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 6.1 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures in Agriculture 6.1.1 Climate Change Impact on Agriculture The agricultural sector accounts for 8–9% in the GDP structure. In the recent years, Belarus has actually achieved the maximum level of food security (0.8–1.0 t of grain per capita). Variation in the yield capacity of major crop species increases from 43-72% in the northern region of Belarus and reduces to minimum (23–34%) in Grodno Region where the farming standards are higher and the soil bonitet is higher on the average. The contribution of weather and climatic conditions to variability of the crop capacity of fall rye and spring crops is only 14–17% on fertile lands [1]. It has been found that a substantial proportion of weather and climatic parameters contributes to formation of the total variance in capacity yield of fiber-flax in the eastern, northern and central regions (63–67%), with its reduction down to 36% being observed in Brest Region. Given the climate change, implementation of the strategy of cost-effective adaptive intensification of the Belarusian farming systemis prioritized in Belarus [2]. Development of this system is related to the improvement of natural soil fertility, soil and climatic plant-growing specialization, use of a substantiated set of crops and effective (including landscape and contour) crop rotation, nitrogen of leguminous crops, soil improving plants, genetically resistant varieties, mixed sowing through the use of landscape advantages, observance of optimal periods of performing technological operations, phytocenotic measures to control weeds, etc. The global warming influence on agriculture even in the countries with relatively stable climate may result in the ecological damage accounting for the greater portion of the total loss in all economy sectors put together. The climate impacts the agricultural sector through two schemes, i.e. through the change in frequency of dangerous and particularly dangerous weather events and also through long-tern tendencies – trends reflected in averaged indicators of the agricultural production. Expert assessments show that weather and climatic conditions result in the change of the gross agricultural product in Belarus, at least by 15–20%, meat and milk production – by 10– 15% and beef raising and hog growing costs – by 5–15%. In specific years, the grain production accounts for about 60% of the minimum level of the country’s food. Potential damage to the temperate zone countries inflicted by unfavorable weather and climatic events is the greatest in the agricultural production (nearly 70%). The damage from unfavorable weather and climaticevents may be reduced by 35–40%, provided that preventive 156 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures measures are taken. In the recent 20 years, the following economically significant specific feature has distinctly emerged: an average gross grain harvest in the country is about 7 mln tons, however, in the years with unfavorable weather conditions it reduces to 5.5 mln tons (in 1999 – about 3.5 mln tons), while in the years with fair weather conditions, it reaches 9.5 mln tons. Grain losses are estimated to be about USD 700 mln. Increase in the average yearly air temperature by 1°С leads to extension of the vegetation period (Figure 5.2) by 10 days and increase of the accumulated temperatures by 200°С which corresponds to the latitudinal shift (northwards) of more southerly climatic conditions by 150200km. Hence, this will result in the change of the country’s climatic (natural) zoning, shift in phenophases (specifically in spring) and extension of the vegetation period. Figure 6.2 – Growing season length isolinesin the most common climate change scenario [1] The onset of severe drought events leads to increased expenses related to the unscheduled land tillage, grain resowing on large areas, overuse of agricultural machinery, payroll overexpenditure, etc. During periods of severe drought events, grain crop production costs increase by 15-20% compared to years of fair weather conditions.This leads to substantial reduction in labor productivity by the same value in the agricultural sector. The area of the country’s particularly drought-prone southern part will tend to increase.The soil moisture stock for agricultural crops will be continuously reducing in these regions. The number of cold and dry spells is likely to increase specifically on the reclaimed areas and new types of agricultural crop diseases and pests will appear. Under such weather conditions, there is a need to expand areas under drought-resistant crops, arrange their selection and seed-breeding (many drought-resistant crops consume 1.5−3 157 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures times less water than traditional crops and are characterized by a deeply penetrating root system). In general, the increased vegetation period and agricultural crop heat provision, improved overwintering conditions, etc., - all this is not a guarantee of the increased agricultural crop yield capacity; this contributes to faster ripening, but reduces the grain-filling period. Under such conditions, the plant hardening will weaken and the conditions of yield formation of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, cabbage and the after grass will worsen due to dry and hot second half of summer. In addition, many mid-latitude agricultural crops need low-temperature spells (vernalization) at the beginning of the winter season. Warming during the winter season is likely to result in damage of winter crops from damping-off, rotting-out, frost-killing and snow mold. The increase in duration and heat provision of the vegetation period opens up new perspectives, but also poses some problems: − introducing more productive, late-ripening varieties of grain crops and vegetables; − shifting the sowing time of spring crops to earlier periods. This will help more effectively use soil moisture supply after spring snow-melting, will result in earlier grain maturity and will make it possible to grow stubble crops at a greater scale. However, late May frost risk needs to be taken into account, therefore, the cultivated crops should be frost-resistant; − extending the zone of cultivating warm-weather vegetable crops northwards – cucumbers and tomatoes; − extending spring rape growing areas; − earlier onset of the first growth (by 7–12 days), but less favorable conditions for forming full after grass (higher probability of onset of dry spells in July-August); − somewhat better conditions of overwintering of agricultural crops and sown perennial grass, however, high probability of winterkilling will persist in case of abrupt frost intensification (up to minus 18°С) and lack of a snow cover; − better conditions of harvesting and reduced harvest time; − reducing housing season and improving cattle wintering conditions, productivity of natural pastures and crop capacity of sown grass are likely to reduce due to the increased temperature background; 158 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures − increased fire hazard on peatlands; − desertification of areas which is most pronounced through combination of dry phenomena and increased anthropogenic impact on ecosystems. In case of extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes, squall winds and torrential rains, as a rule, it is not possible to avoid the negative consequences neither by selection of crops, nor by application of various cultivation technologies. The specialists predict that all farming systems will be inevitably cardinally restructured as a result of shift of agroclimatic zones northwards over a substantial distance. A new fourth agroclimatic zone may cover more than half of the country’s territory by 2030. The accumulated temperature>10°С will increase by 600°C [3]. The vegetation period will increase nearly by 1 month. Productivity of agricultural crops due to the increased aridity is likely to reduce in the southern part of the country. This reduction may be compensated to some extent by higher productivity in the northern regions of the country. Some technological lagging behind developed countries, understaffing, high material inputs for production of agricultural produces, persistent price disparity amid a developing market, all this increasingly necessitates fundamental reforming of the agricultural sector. Given growing demographic problems (population decline, increased share of elderly people, including those of the unemployable age), degradation of the rural social infrastructure is being continuously aggravated. 6.1.2 Adaptation Measures in Agricultural Sector The measures for adaptation of the agricultural sector to the climate change include as follows: − introducing more productive, moderately late-ripening varieties (hybrids) of grain crops and vegetables which will more effectively use increased thermal resources; − expanding cultivation areas under some traditional, “forgotten” and new highly effective crops (corn, millet, soya, sugar beet, spring rape, etc.); − improving to some extent conditions for growing stubble and postcut crops; − establishing horticultural plantings with a new set of species and variety composition; − shifting the sowing time of spring crops to earlier periods. This will help more effectively use soil moisture supply after spring snow-melting, will result in earlier grain 159 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures maturity and will make it possible to grow stubble crops at a greater scale. However, May frost risk needs to be taken into account, therefore, the cultivated crops should be frost-resistant; − extending the zone of cultivating warm-weather crops northwards (100–120 km). Due to increasing aridity, the following is needed: − intensifying activities aimed at breeding new varieties and expanding the use of drought-resistance crops; − expanding regions of irrigation and sprinkler irrigation farming; − further developing the system of insurance against drought consequences; − extending the corn and millet growing areas. The Republic of Belarus is already implementing specific measures for adaptation of the agricultural sector to the climate change. Grain maize grown areas have been substantially expanded in the country over the recent years. Increase in the yield capacity of grain maize and silage maize is directly dependent on effective accumulated temperatures during the period of its vegetation and maturing. The agricultural enterprises of Brest and Gomel Regions have been growing winter barley the yield capacity of which is slightly lower compared to other crops. Its advantage, however, resides in the fact that harvesting begins 2–3 earlier than that of other crops.This is also conditioned by the increased effective accumulated temperatures in June-July. Oil seed rape growing areas increased up to 500 ths ha. Soybean crop is grown in southern regions (up to 5 ths ha); growing areas under sunflower, millet, canning-pea, sweet corn and green bean have increased.Growing onion as an annual crop and garlic has been commercialized over the last seven years. Cultivation of warm-weather potato varieties has been started. Activities to establish industrial vineyards and hopyards are underway. In conclusion it should be noted that due to uncertainty of available knowledge about the climate change causes and wide scatter of scenario assessments of the climate change in the future, apart from elaboration of adaptation measures in various economy sectors based on the climate warming scenario, there is a need to consider other climate change scenarios (cooling, persistence of current climatic conditions), i.e. to carry out scientifically based elaboration of multivariant adaptation measures in climate-dependent economy sectors to mitigate risks in case of development of an alternative climate change scenario. 160 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 6.2 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures in Forestry Sector 6.2.1 Climate Change Impact on Forestry and Biodiversity The climate impact on forest ecosystems includes as follows [4]: − change in current stand increment due to the increased effective temperatures, vegetation period duration, increased demand for respiratory oxygen consumption during the vegetation period due to increase in average night temperatures; − change in period of ripening fruits and seeds of woody plants due to earlier onset of vegetation; − 10−15-day shift in the beginning of silvicultural season; − increased duration of a fire season, increased areas of potentially fire-proneforests, higher risk of fire hazard in forests and on peat-bogs; − change in the stand structure due to the shift in areas of principal forest-forming species: spruce, hornbeam andspeckled alder; − higher probability of mass reproduction of forest pests both primary (gypsy moth, nun moth, sawflies, owl-moths, tussock moths, leaf rollers, etc.) and secondary (primarily, eight-dentated bark beetle and its accompanying pests); − deterioration/improvement in performance of hydro-forest reclamation systemsandoccurrence of negative side effectsrelated to their operation; − higher probability of occurrence and harmfulness of late spring frosts due to earlier vegetation; − active wetland overgrowing as a result of overall lowering of ground water level and increased rate of evaporation from the surface of wetlands and their water-shed areas; − increased forest community transpiration; − change in soil conditions of stand growing due to total lowering of ground water level; − loss of biological diversity of the forest boreal flora and fauna; − deterioration of conditions of assimilation as a result of reduced transparency of the atmosphere; 161 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures − deterioration of conditions of water supply as a result of overall lowering of ground water level across large areas due to the action of a complex of anthropogenic and climatically determined factors; − expansion of forest-steppe and steppe floristic complexes to the forest ecosystems; − total accelerated rate of circulation of elements in forest ecosystems, in particular, accelerated rates of the forest litter and floor decomposition; − biodiversity enrichment based on the species of the thermo- and xerophilic Euro-Asia Minor and Eurosibirian-Aralo-Caspian biotic complexes; − growth in plant productivity due to the reduced CO2 limitation level as a result of its increased concentration in the atmosphere and productivity fall due to the increased ozone content; − deterioration of conditions of overwintering of the forest vegetation due to unavailability or reduced availability of the snow cover; − deterioration of conditions during the winter season for the harvesting equipment to have access to boggy felling areas due to the increased temperature, reduced period of snow cover availability and forestry road freezing. Accelerated rate of circulation of elements in forest ecosystems, in particular, accelerated rates of the forest litter and floor decomposition. This theoretically contributed to some increase in the stand productivity. Mass propagation of forest pests, higher aridity and also the change in concentrations of aerosols and ozone may significantly reduce the plant productivity. According to simulation-based assessments of the Russia’s researchers, anthropogenic increase in the ozone ground level concentration alone resulted in the reduced increment of the biomass of broad-leaved trees; in the first half of 90s of XX century, it was estimated to be as high as 15% in some countries of the Western and Central Europe, while in Belarus this reduction was estimated to be 7–9%. The changes of climatic conditions directly or indirectly (through the change in the level of ground water, fires, propagation of forest pests and outbreaks of diseases) effect the state of the forest vegetation and result in the change of the stand composition and structure. Climate effects specifically manifest themselves in the change of the spruce distribution area. The modern southern line of the continuous spruce distribution is defined by a number of days (over 120), with relative air humidity exceeding 80% and accumulated temperature above 162 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 10°С. Further rapid increase in average monthly temperatures during a warm season of the year is likely to result in occurrence of droughts during the vegetation period with simultaneous lowering of ground water level. As a result of change of temperature and soil conditions of the stand growth, the spruce area may reduce further. Forecasts of the change in productivity of principal tree species show that the change in productivity will be characterized by diverse trends: increase in productivity north-eastward and reduction in productivity in the southwestern part of the country. The decline in the pine forest increment by 4–6% may be expected as early as by 2025 and 8–10% decline – by 2050.Besides, the increase in the vegetation period duration due to early onset of the vegetation is not sufficient to compensate dry spells in the middle of the vegetation period. On the other hand, the productivity may increase by 4–6% in the northern regions of Belarus. The reduced increment zone may shift northward of Minsk by 2050. The change in the communities’ composition and productivity may seriously adversely affect the country’s economy and pose a serious threat to biodiversity. 6.2.2 Adaptation Measures in Forestry Subject to the State Scientific and Technical Program “Forest Management and Sustainable Forestry”, a program of adaptation of the forestry to the forecast climate change has been developed and the measures for adaptation of the forestry are listed below: − elaborating and implementing the forest industry strategy and targeted program of adaptation to new climatic conditions; − forest-growing taking account of the shift of climatic zones and change in soil moisture supply regime; − shifting to increased felling age; − protecting forests from insect pests, developing prevention measures to control propagation of nonnative invasive insect pests in the country; − rehabilitating disturbed wetlands by rewetting to reactivate peat formation processes and rehabilitating other GHG natural sinks; − improving the forest/peatland fire protection system; − conducting R&D to assess the climate change impact on the forest vegetation forestry and elaborating measures for adaptation of the forest industry to this climate change. Given the measures for adaptation of the forestry to the climate change throughout the country, the area under coniferous stands may increase by 3.1% by2005 and by 12.4% by 2050 163 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures compared to the reference period. It is noteworthy that specifically spruce forests will contribute to the area expansion in the northern and central parts of Belarus, while pine forests will be mainly responsible for this process in Polesie. Oakforest area may increase several-fold, i.e. by 7.7% in 2025 and by 11.6% in 2050. This primarily should take place through conversion of a part of small-leaved forests and also spruce foreststomixed spruce and broad-leaved forests. The area under ash forests may increase five-fold (from 0.4% to 2.1%) by 2050. The adaptation program also provides for the reduction in the area of the secondary small-leaved communities of birch, ash and speckled alder forestsby 9.5, 0.4 and 0.4% respectively. One of the measures for the climate change adaptation in Belarus may include regulation and optimization in terms of uniformity of tree species composition by replacing spruce stands in the most vulnerable regions with more resistant stands and by increasing their share in the most prospective northern regions of the country (larchandoak and also pine, birch and alder). The measures aimed at increasing the productivity and measures for adaptation of the forestry to the climate change may include as follows [5, 6]: − sustainable use of the forest fund, maximum timber use, including green waste; − reduction in forest cultivation period through timely reforestationusing commercially valuable species and compulsory conservation of the establishing undergrowth in the process of forest management; − accelerated stand growth by properly selecting and locating tree specieswith account for forest sites and natural properties of the to-be-grown tree species. As a rule, the preference should be given to multispecies stands in the process of stand formation; − improvement of forest sites (introducing soil-improving tree and shrub species, including undergrowth, mixing forest litter with a soil mineral layer, liming acid forest soils, applying peat to dry nutrient-poor soils, sowing lupin, etc.); − introduction of fast-growing tree species, selection and introduction of the most productive native principal valuable species (oak, pine, spruce, aspen, birch), with achievements of the modern selection of modern science bring used to the maximum; − thinning (systematically removing unpromising trees from the stand and leaving the best trees growing). 164 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures − efficient felling methods and most advanced harvesting processes allowing the undergrowth and forest site to be preserved; − protection of forests from fires and from pest insects and fungal diseases. The forest fire resistance may be improved by: − regulating the composition of coniferous stands in the process of thinning, while maintaining an admixture of hardwood species and also the quantity, composition and structure of the undergrowth and underwood; − forming fire-resistant areas by growing stands of the mixed coniferous artificial stands; − timely thinning; − removal of rubbish from the felling area and elimination of debris- strewn forest sites beyond the limits of felling areas; − establishing fireproof forest margins to separate fire-hazardous forest areas and to form units of various sizes isolated from each other. To reduce the fire risk on peatlands, the activities aimed at maintaining the existing and rehabilitating out-of-operation reclamation systems and also at restoring the water regime on peatlands unfit for farming and forest management may become effective measures. A package of adaptation measures has been elaborated based on the forecast of climate change in Belarus until 2050, forest composition and structure, minor forest production resources, composition and harmfulness of principal forest pest insects, forest-fire situation and reforestation and forest breeding volume. Implementation of these measures will help reduce forestry losses by 20-50% from adverse weather conditions, increase future forest productivity by not less than 10% and improve conditions for conservation of the biodiversity of the forest flora and fauna. Since 2010, the Strategy provisions have been implemented to develop new forestry management (forest tenure) projects, thinning, reforestation and forest breeding. Implementation of the entire package of measures stipulated by the Strategy will substantially improve resistance of forest ecosystems to the climate variability by 2040-2050, prevent mass forest mortality and bolster the Belarusian forestry sector’s position in external markets. 165 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 6.3 Assessment of Vulnerability of Water Resources and Identification of Adaptation Options 6.3.1 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources The runoff of large rivers has changed insignificantly, however, changes in the maximum runoff fall outside the limits of accuracy of calculations: decrease in the runoff is characteristic of all rivers. The Pripyat river’s minimum runoff significantly increased, this increase is less pronounced on the Dnieper river, while the maximum runoff on other rivers is less significant. Therefore, theintra-annual runoff transformation has occurred which resides in leveling of the runoff part in terms of specific hydrologic cycles. The winter runoff of rivers will increase, while the spring runoff will decrease. The increase of renewable water resources is expected in the north of the country which will result in increase of the water supply per capita. Quite a different situation may be observed in the southern part of the country, however, rather uniform distribution of water resources throughout the territory will in general match with the water requirements of the country’s regions. The ice cover period will reduce, the time and processes of freezing and breakup on rivers and water bodies will significantly change and the inland navigation period will become much more extended. Increase in the winter and summer river runoffunder conditions of the reduced depth and time of soil freezing will result in the ground water rise. Specific areas of the country characterized by excessive moistening, a shallow groundwater tableandlow drainage capacity may encounter inundation problems which will lead to deformation and weakening of the building and structure foundations. The latter is particularly dangerous for monuments and architectural ensembles. The climate-driven water resources dynamics cannot be viewed without accounting for anthropogenic changes. Implementation of drainage reclamation in the country has effected physiographic and hydrological conditions of the areas. As a result of the reclamation, drainage density has increased several-fold which creates more favorable conditions for the runoff. The annual runoff has increased on more than half of the water-shed areas under study. The drainage most significantly effected water resources of small water-sheds having an area of up to 300 km2. Due to reduced evapotranspiration and drawdown over the first years after drainage reclamation, the annual runoff increased by 20–30% and low-water – by 50–70%, and in some 166 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures cases even greater. The reclamation led to lowering of ground water level. The greatest risk the climate change poses is related to floods. Analysis of the data on floods in 1845 and 1931 shows that probability of forming even more catastrophic floods and floodings in the future in Belarus is high.Such a situation is likely to occur in case of the increased anthropogenic load on the water-shed and is conditioned by significant changes of the flow formation conditions. The flood-inflicted damage in the country has not been accurately recorded. It was estimated indirectly through insurance coverage paid to industrial enterprises and agricultural producers, compensation of loss subject to acts of flood control commissions, expert assessments, etc. Such an accounting system frequently resulted in underestimation of the floodinflicted damage. In this connection, Belarus has undertaken efforts to improve the system by developing special methodologies oriented at analyzing the data on possible flood-inflicted damage with account of hydrological parameters of floods and floodings and conditions of economic activity on the territories prone to inundation by floods. For example, the methodology of calculation of damage inflicted to the agricultural sector is based on the principle of the reduced yield under long-duration floodingsrelated to the time-lag between the actual and optimal sowing season, summer and autumn floods – full or partial loss of agricultural produces depending on the flood duration. The methodology accounted both direct losses caused by the inundation as such and indirect losses related to various factors (underproduction, disruption of communication lines, etc.). The loss data obtained using the calculation methodologies characterized the value of the annual average damage under natural state of watercourses [7]. Floods inflict both direct and indirect damage. Direct damage includes death, hypothermia and injuries of the people, damage and destruction of residential and production buildings, roads, power transmission and communication lines, livestock death and crop failure, liquidation and spoilage of raw materials, fuel, food products, fodder and fertilizes, costs related to a temporary evacuation of the people and loss of the soil fertile layer. In this case, the death of the people may be caused by drowning, severe injuries and hypothermia. Hypothermia also may cause many diseases, the injuries may be inflicted by heavy floating objects or by colliding people with obstacles while moving in the torrent. The types of indirect flood damage include as follows: costs for procurement and delivery of food products, fodder and necessary supplies to disaster areas; reduction in output due to inundation of production facilities; deterioration of living conditions of the affected communities; and underuse of areas in the flood zone. Floods in Polesie are most disastrous. This is related to a flat lowland relief and also to 167 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures small depth of incision of rivers and, hence, a gentle slope and low conveying capacity. Let us review the Polesie region in more detail [7]. The most significant spring floods in terms of adverse effects were recorded in 1999 on the Pripyat river and in 2004 on the Western Dvina river and in the lower reaches of the Sozh river. In 1999, the highest flood levels formed on the right-bank tributaries of the Pripyat river – the Goryn and Ubort rivers where the level was exceeded by 1.23–2.83 m. During the period of formation of the flood water maximums, large amount of precipitation fell out in the basin (110– 255% of the norm) that resulted in a substantial increase in the water level.The 1999 flood peaks were close to those of the 1979 flood in terms of its peak height, and on the Shat river, in the lower reaches of the Pripyat and Yaselda rivers they exceeded long-term values by 3–14 cm. The floodplain flooding depth reached 1.0–3.3 m on the majority of rivers. The flood inflicted substantial material damage to the national economy. For example, as a result of 1999 flood, 370 settlements were inundated in 49 districts. The total area flooded amounted to 255,653 ha, of this area, the farmland accounted for nearly 185 ths ha. 2,224 residents were evacuated from 929 residential houses. The flood disrupted communication with 558 residential houses in 18 settlements. 2.9 km of power lines, 82.25 km of motor roads, 2.65 km of dams and 13 bridges were damaged. Stolinsky, Drogichensky, Luninetsky, Elsky, Zhitkovishsky and Lelchitsky Districts were inundated most. Flood-related death of people in Belarus was not recorded. Floods as some other natural emergencies may be predicted to some extent that, thereby allowing mass civilian casualties to be prevented and damage to be reduced. Scientifically substantiated conclusions of hydrologists, hydrotechnicians, hydrometeorologists and other specialists lay the foundation for planning and forecasting damage mitigative measures. However, a number of factors allowing the flood onset to be predicted to some extent need to be taken into consideration in the inundation-prone settlements. This includes long-term observations of floods occurred in a specific locality and their impact and visual observations of the water level rise in water reservoirs. The snow melting rate, the rainfall amount and availability of ice clogging during breakup on rivers – all this also helps identify the probability of inundation. As is known, not only snow cover depth in the country itself, but that in the neighboring countries effects floods in Belarus. The Belarusian Hydrometeorological Service comprises a properly organized and extensive network of meteorological stations and meteorological observation posts, it operates advanced information technologies and receives operational information from radars and earth satellites and long-term observation data. Hydrometeorological Service’s specialists receive information not only from the country’s meteorological monitoring system, but also from other European countries and in case the risk of flood occurrence is identified, the information about this is immediately 168 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures disseminated. The states neighbouring Belarus annually provide the information about the expected spillover of flood water to the territory of Belarus. During the spring flood, the Republican Hydrometeorological Center operationally makes hydrological forecasts of forming high water levels in rivers. Hydrological forecasts help timely take all necessary flood preventive measures. To mitigate the adverse effect of the change of water resources, there is a need to elaborate flood protection measures, primarily in Polesie, with consideration for specifics of the river runoff formation in Ukraine which are to be supplemented by a reliable hydrometeorological monitoring and extensive use of radar and satellite information for assessing snow cover characteristics and planning water management measures. Regular forest reclamation activities in the river basins are the most effective measure to control erosion-inducing water flows. It is reasonable to consider the issues of building underground water reservoirs in specific regions of the country aimed to regulate water regime subject to requirements of water consumers, i.e. to address the water supply problem residing in increase of the dependable water content of a water source. 6.3.2 Adaptation Measures in Water Sector Due to the climate warming, the following adaptation measures need to be implemented: − effectively using continuously reducing quality water resources; − extensively introducing water-saving technologies in various sectors of the country’s economy; − converting hydro-reclamation systems into more technically advanced systems characterized by optimal water consumption for production purposes; − switching to a waste-free system of using water resources; − artificially replenishing groundwater resources as an option. To mitigate the adverse effect of the change of water resources, there is a need to elaborate flood protection measures, primarily in Polesie, with consideration for specifics of the river runoff formation in Ukraine which are to be supplemented by a reliable hydrometeorological monitoring and extensive use of radar and satellite information for assessing snow cover characteristics and planning water management measures. Regular forest reclamation activities in the river basins are the most effective measure to control erosion-inducing water flows. It is reasonable to consider the issues of building underground water reservoirs in specific 169 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures regions of the country aimed to regulate water regime subject to requirements of water consumers, i.e. to address the water supply problem residing in increase of the dependable water content of a water source. Establishment of a reliable hydrometeorological monitoring and extensive use of radar and satellite information for assessing snow cover characteristics and planning water management, agricultural and forest-protection measures; substantiation of expediency and feasibility of building underground water reservoirs in specific regions of the country aimed to regulate water regime subject to requirements of water consumers, i.e. to address the water supply problem residing in increase of the dependable water content of a water source. In the process of the long-term planning of the economic activity it is required to take into consideration vulnerability of the surface water and specific limitations of adaptation measures without relating to specific dates of the onset of changes. The adaptation measures for the economic activity should include primarily water saving, extensive use of low-water technologies and more extensive use of the farmland irrigation. There is a need to change over to the basin management of the water resources use and protection. 6.4 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Human Health In the process of studying the climate change effect on social spheres, considerable attention should be paid to the health impact assessment. Comfortable conditions of work, recreation and living significantly effect the human health. The global warming is likely to result in creation of comfortable conditions for specific pests and diseases which will adversely effect the public health. Natural calamities also lead to indirect effects, namely, the increased number of mosquitoes due to flooding of areas, activation of ticks and other infection carriers, the increased period of their potential contagious danger and disruption of operation of water supply and sanitation facilities. The above factors pose the risk of increased incidence of intestinal infectious diseases. The specialists believe that climate warming will contribute to spread of infections transmitted through infected water and insects. Infectious agents, when outside the human body, cannot exist in a cold climate, however the situation radically changes in the high temperature environment. Infectious diseases may be divided into three major groups: 1) diseases transmitted primarily through water and food products, 2) mosquito-borne diseases and 3) tick-borne diseases. The incidence of intestinal infectious diseases is mainly dependent on water quality (both in water supply sources in the plumbing system) and also on the degree of contamination of food 170 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures products. The ambient temperature is the key factor directly effecting the human organism. The temperature defines therespiration depth and rate,blood circulation rate, hemogenesis character andoxygen supply to cells and tissues. The climate warming leads to the increased number of days with abnormally high temperature. Even short-term excessive temperature may cause excessive mortality due to exacerbation of various diseases (ischemic heart disease, diabetes, diseases of the respiratory system), accidents, suicides and murders. The climate warming is most dangerous for the elderly people, disabled and low-income categories of the population. The days of excessive temperature are also characterized by higher atmospheric air pollution levels. The human body state is also affected by air humidity. The conditions are comfortable at average air humidity (50%) and without its abrupt fluctuations. Belarus is characterized by high humidity throughout the year, i.e. under conditions of excessive moistening in the country, the most favorable season for people interms of relative air humidity is the spring and summer season (May-August). Variation in the seasonal intensity of weather is a key factor to which the human organism is exposed within the integrated climate impact. Abrupt atmospheric pressure drops result in the disorder of respiratory process, blood and tissue oxygen depletion which enhances risks of cardiovascular diseases. The response to meteorologicalevents aggravates the course of chronic diseases and causes undesirable changes of the state of health of as human being and his/her mood. To address the issue of adaptation of the human organism to the climate change, the use of local climate specifics (solar radiation, air properties, landscape, etc.) should be intensified at the state level which may help reduce or increase the load related to the human organism adaptive response, thereby improving and adjusting the functioning of its protective mechanisms. Belarus possesses natural resources suitable for promotion of the agroecotourism which is currently becoming more relevant and demanded. The ozone layer depletion by 1% which is also induced by the climate warming may cause the growth in incidence rate of melanoma by 2%, non-melanoma skin cancer by 3%, and cataract by 0.6–0.8%. The frequency of occurrence of maximum summer temperatures has increased nearly 2fold. The increased number of days and periods with high temperatures creates an additional load on a human body specifically for the people with cardiovascular diseases and reduces performance. Protective measures should be provided specifically in the premises (air conditioners, fans and also architectural protective solutions, if required). 171 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures During the warming period in question, the number of thaw days and continuous duration of thaw periods have increased. While previously the frequency of occurrence of thaw periods with duration over 10 days made up 9% of the number of such periods, in the recent years – about 14%. Thaw intensity has also increased – maximum and daily mean temperatures during thaws have also risen. The frequency of occurrence of thaws with the maximum temperature over 4°C has increased from about 13 to about 21% and with the daily mean temperature – 1.5fold. Apart from direct effect of weather factors, the climate exerts an indirect impact since climatic conditions define to a great extent the pattern of the food consumed, sanitary methods, a structural design of residential/administrative buildings and industrial enterprises, effect the social and family structure and also survival of insects and animals – carriers of pathogenic microorganisms in their habitat. Of special concern are the diseases being not endemic to Belarus. This includes infectious diseases which have been diagnosed over the last 40 years. Quite recently, the spread of tropic viruses the emergence of which, as researchers believe, is related to the changes taking place in the environment has been reported: malaria and “West Nile virus”, outbreak of Ebola virus, jungle fever, epidemic of typhoid fever or cholera outbreak. The most significant climate change-induced effects are likely to emerge in the highly urbanized regions. Such effects may manifest themselves in the disruption of water supply, increased thermal loads and favorable conditions for spread of various infections [4]. Assessments of the pathogenicity index change related to temperature, air humidity, wind speed, interdiurnal atmospheric pressure variability and also the annual cycle of the integrated pathogenicity index over the last 40 years have demonstrated a diverse character of trend changes of the above pathogenicity indices. Pathogenicity indices of air humidity and interdiurnal atmospheric pressure variability are growing which adversely effects the public health, while the wind speed reduces and temperature increases, thereby defining positive dynamics of the pathogenicity index of the wind speed and temperature. The climate warming increases the stay of people in recreational zones (forests and banks of rivers/lakes/reservoirs), hence, the anthropogenic load on these ecosystems are likely to increase and result in water quality impairment and aggravation of the epidemiological situation. In conclusion it should be emphasized that ecosystems (aquatic, forest and agricultural) should not be viewed in isolation from each other. The human health is defined to a great extent by the state of environment, so it is relevant to assess the climate change impact on the ecosystems, economy and public health in the integrated manner. This would help select the most promising adaptation measures not only at the national level, but also at the interstate 172 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Assessment of Vulnerability, Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures (regional) level. 173 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Financial resources and technologies transfer 7 FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGIES TRANSFER, INCLUDING INFORMATION ACCORDING TO ARTICLES 10 AND 11 OF KYOTO PROTOCOL The Republic of Belarus is a Party included in Annex I to the Convention, but it is not included in Annex II, therefore, it has no financial commitments and has not provided financial resources subject to Article 4, Clauses 3, 4 and 5 of the Convention and it also has not provided financial resources to the developing countries subject to Article 11 of the Kyoto Protocol, including “new and additional resources”. The Republic of Belarus has not made contributions to the Global Environment Facility, multilateral institutions and programs or bilateral and regional financial contributions related to the Convention implementation. The Republic of Belarus pays considerable attention to promoting cooperation with the international organizations in the climate area and also with the developed and developing countries. Such components of this process as building up institutional structure and capacity and transferring technologies to the developing countries are of critical importance. It must be emphasized once more that the Republic of Belarus has established and is developing the legislative and regulatory framework and institutional framework for implementation of the UN FCCC and KP as follows: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection is a body coordinating the overall activities within the framework of the UN FCCC and KP. The RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology” is responsible for scientific and technical support of the UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol and for the climate research. The National Greenhouse Gas Inventory System has been developed and is in place. The procedure for maintaining the State Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions by Sources and Removal by Sinks of Greenhouse Gases has been approved. The National Center of the Republic of Belarus for Taking GHG Inventory and Maintaining Greenhouse Gases Inventory has been established. Necessary conditions for the functioning of the National Registry of Carbon Units of the Republic of Belarus have been created and the procedure for forming and maintaining it has been approved. The procedure for the submitting, reviewing and monitoring of the joint implementation projects and voluntary GHG emission reduction projects has been approved. The Belarusian scientific organizations are involved in the research on climate and the system for providing climate change information to the national state administrative bodies, enterprises and institutions and also to the public is in place. Currently, Belarus cooperates in the climate change sphere with the Intergovernmental 174 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Financial resources and technologies transfer Panel on Climate Change in the area of preparation and submission of GHG Inventories and National Communications to the UN FCCC Secretariat, reviewing Inventories and National Communications by international experts in the process of centralized reviews, including visits of international experts to the country; with government institutions of other countries, specifically with Ministries of Environmental Protection, agencies and institutes taking and preparing GHG inventories and maintain Registries of Carbon Units; with foreign companies and enterprises in the area of promoting carbon financing, preparing joint implementation projects and voluntary GHG emission reduction projects, etc. The Republic of Belarus, being an economy in transition, like other countries in which the transition to the market-oriented economy is underway, may count for assistance of the Parties to Annex 1 which may provide it through multilateral institutions, inclusive of the Global Environment Facility, through bilateral institutions and by raising funds in the private sector or through other procedures, the assistance in the sphere of capacity building, financial and technical assistance and assistance in the technology transfer to assist these countries in elaborating and implementing their national low-carbon development strategies and action plans in accordance with their national priorities and emissions reduction targets (Decision 2/СР.17 “Results of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Actions under the Convention). Subject to Decision 4/СР.17 “Technology Executive Committee – Conditions and Procedures”, the exchange of information and knowledge is also one of the components of the technology transfer and capacity building. Therefore, Belarus entitled to the international technical assistance, nevertheless provides assistance itself in the sphere of technologies transfer to the developing countries and building their capacity by training students from such countries in the Belarusian institutions of higher education. Thus, 1,894 foreign students attending courses related to the issues of environment and climate protection were trained in the Belarusian universities as of 01.08.2013. Among them, the citizens from 26 countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Vietnam, Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, China, Korea, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mali, Morocco, Moldova, Nepal, Nigeria, Peru, Syria, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Turkmenistan and Russia). For the avoidance of repetitions, more detailed information is provided in Section 9, Subsection 9.2. The Republic of Belarus provided nonrefundable assistance in 2010-2014 to such countries as Russia, Turkey and Serbia to liquidate fire and flood-inflicted consequences. 175 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation 8 RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION 8.1 General Policy on Research and Systematic Observation of Climate Change and Funding 8.1.1 National Policy in regard to research and systematic observation Progress in research of climate change and its prediction of climate impact assessment, the application of knowledge about the climate when making economic decisions is entirely dependent on the availability and quality of climate data. Time series data with sufficient spatial resolution and coverageare neededin order to plan and manage agricultural production, water and forest resources and other sectors sensitive to climate impacts. Development of economy of the Republic of Belarus requires detailed study of climatic resources in order to optimize agricultural production, broaden climate record as well as its usage in energy sector, construction, and, ultimately, the development of appropriate response strategies for industrial and agricultural production to climate change. Legal basis of hydro-meteorological activities are regulated by the Act On HydroMeteorological Activity (National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus No 170, 2/1344 as of 2007). The current Act aims to provide government agencies, other organizations and individuals with actual and forecasted hydro-meteorological information. By the Resolution of the Council of Ministers No 75 dated January 23, 2007 the study of regional climate change was included in the list of activities of national importance in the field of hydro-meteorological activities. By the Council of Ministers Resolution No 1301 dated October 4, 2006 the Statement on the National Climate Inventory was developed and approved. This Statement determines the composition of the state of climate inventory data, the order of reference, as well as the procedure for providing the climatic inventory data to state government agencies, different organizations and individuals. National climate inventory is a systematic set of data, based on hydro-meteorological information about the combination of atmospheric conditions, typical for a certain area because of its geographical position, that vary during the year, ranging within certain limits from year to year, but slightly varying from one multi-year period to another. National Climate Inventory includes long-term averages of meteorological parameters (air temperature, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction, precipitation, etc.) for a certain period of observation: day, month, year (climatic norm); extreme values of meteorological parameters for a certain period of observation: day, month, year; medium and closing dates of occurrence of 176 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation meteorological phenomena; repeatability of meteorological phenomena or values of meteorological parameters of the National Climate Inventory data are used for: • Accounting the knowledge of climatic characteristics while planning activities of different sectors of national economy as well as rational distribution of productive forces; • Agroclimatic zoning, locating the crops, planning the cultural operations; • Industrial, transport, energy, water and civil construction design, planning and building of human settlements; • Development of state standards for technical products, work clothing, fuel and other state and department standards; • Design of health facilities, bioclimatic justification of creating the recreation and tourism areas; • Development of measures on air protection against pollution and on improvement of environment; • Climate change assessment, including the change under the influence of anthropogenic factors; • Maintenance of other state natural resource inventories; • Other needs, prescribed by law. Due to the fact that the first period of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to the UN FCCC (2008-2012) is completed, it was necessary for the Republic of Belarus to develop the policy on mitigating the effects of climate change on the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2017 and till 2020). At the same time, one must also consider future commitments of the Republic of Belarus under the Kyoto Protocol and subsequent climate agreements. In this regard, the Republic of Belarus has developed the State Program of Measures to Mitigate the Consequences of Climate Change for 2013-2020 (Approved by the Council of Ministers Regulation No 510 dated 21.06.2013, as amended by Decree of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No 444 dated 08.05.2014) which contains a number of activities in the following main sections: - "Improving the observations of climate change, climate change mitigation and adaptation to climate change"; - "Scientific, personnel and information support the development and implementation of measures to mitigate climate change"; - "International cooperation in the development and implementation of adaptation measures to climate change and mitigate the human impact on climate." 177 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation It should be mentioned that there is no separate line for funding on climate research and at the same time some funds (though insufficient) are provided in the Republic of Belarus in order to prepare the State Inventory on anthropogenic emissions from sources and absorption by the greenhouse gases absorbents as well as the State Inventory of the Renewable Energy Sources, part of funds from the state budget are provided by the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus (NAS of Belarus), BSU in order to perform scientific researches including those directly or indirectly related to climate change. Hydrometeorology organizations and their structural departments (stations and posts) of the Republic of Belarus are financed from the state budget. Major part of works and research in the sphere of climate are funded through national programs (state budget), and international projects. There is a range of programs in the country which are aimed at the problems solutions, connected with the climate change. The above mentioned State Program of Measures to Mitigate the Consequences of Climate Change is developed for 2013-2020. The total amount of funding for the program equals to 89 364, 5 billion Belarusian rubles. Sector Development Program of the State Hydrometeorological Service for 2011-2015. (sections relating to the development and improvement of the monitoring system, satellite data usage, weather forecasts improvement, participation in meetings, conferences, seminars). The amount of funding for the years 2011-2014 amounted to 66.9 billion Belarusian rubles. Currently Republic of Belarus needs to increase the investment and institutional attraction because the solution of the problems, connected with monitoring and research of the climate demands great financial investments, directed to the improvement of the existing monitoring systems, implementation of the new monitoring technologies and equipment which would conform to the international requirements and standards as well as to the performance of the scientific research in this field. 8.1.2 International Cooperation Weather and climate do not have national boundaries. Therefore, international cooperation at the global level is essential for the development of meteorology and operational hydrology. Observation of weather and climate networks, and international cooperation in meteorology began to develop in the XIX century and currently operates on a global level. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) coordinates this work. The Republic of Belarus is a member of this organization since 1948. Currently the main directions of cooperation between Belarus and the WMO are the performance of meteorological observations according to internationally agreed standards, rapid 178 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation information exchange, Belarus climate monitoring, improvement of meteorological information practical use hydrological monitoring and evaluation of the quantity and quality of water resources. Implementation of the principles laid down by the WMO, allows the National Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus at no extra charge to regularly receive a large amount of hydro-meteorological information from the whole European continent and waters of the North Atlantic, required to produce forecasts of meteorological conditions on the territory of Belarus. In order to make forecasts, a large amount of information from the WMO regional centers as well as data from different observing systems and numerical weather prediction models are used. This allows the specialists from the State Institution "Republican Hydrometeorological Center" (SI “RHMC”) to provide weather forecasts with a high level of probability on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Due to the participation in the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP WMO) Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus actively implements new technologies in the measurement system; it is also equipped with a new means of observation, communication and data processing. Belarusian specialists have an annual training at the Regional Meteorological Training Centre in the Russian Federation. It is organized within the framework of VCP and with the financial support of WMO. In addition, employees of the Hydrometeorological Service, with the support of WMO, are regularly sent on training courses abroad, where they participate in seminars, technical conferences, training workshops. Managers and specialists of the National Hydrometeorological Service units are involved in the work of the WMO Commission: on Basic Systems, Instruments and Methods of Observation for Atmospheric Sciences, Aeronautical Meteorology, Agricultural Meteorology, Hydrology and Climatology. Participation in the work of these committees helps to maintain the level of the organizational, methodological, technical and human resource activities of the Hydrometeorological Service of Belarus. Belarus is also a member of the Regional Association VI (Europe) WMO. In addition to activities carried out by the WMO experts of the SI “RHMC” take part in conferences and seminars in the framework of international projects (BALTEX, BALTRAD). Refresher courses at the European satellite information (EUMETSAT), the National School of Meteorology Meteo-France significantly improve the qualification of specialists. SI “RHMC” constantly receives scientific-methodological, technical and reference books in paper (magazines, books, brochures, informational messages) and electronic format (CD ROM). In 2013 the training of specialists with specialty in hydrometeorology began for the various areas of hydro-meteorological activities in the regional center of the WMO - Russian 179 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation State Hydrometeorological University (Saint-Petersburg, Russia). Approximate amount of funding (through WMO) is 17 000 US dollars. As part of the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme a computerized workstation for the forecasting hydrologist (costing $ 10 000) was installed at the SI “RHMC” in 2009 which is a link of the technological complex GIS Meteo. In 2010 the equipment for the reception of satellite information EUMETSAT station was installed (valued 8200 US dollars) as well as software on the satellite information processing “Meteogamma” with the value of 10 000 US dollars. In 2012-2013 the project "Supply of the combined technical hardware and software technologies MITRA - GIS Meteo" at the National Hydrometeocenter” within the VCP WMO was implemented. The value of the equipment equalled to 25 812 US dollars. Only in 2013 - 2014 the staff of the National Hydrometeorological attended a number of conferences, meetings and seminars with organizational and financial support of WMO: - Seminar of the WMO Regional Association VI to implement the Integrated Global Observing System (Madrid, Kingdom of Spain); - First session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Services for the World Meteorological Organization (Geneva, Swiss Confederation); - Sixteenth session of the Regional Association VI World Meteorological Organization (Helsinki, Finland); - Fifth session of the North-Eurasian Climate Forum Seasonal Prediction (Moscow, Russian Federation); - Sixteenth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (CAM-16) (Antalya, Turkey); - Training workshop on "Practical application of data EUMESAT» (Riga, Latvia); - Sixteenth session of the Commission on Applied Climatology (CCL) (Heidelberg, Federal Republic of Germany). Additionally, participation of the staff of the Department of Hydrometeorological Activities of the Ministry of Natural Resources in the 38th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 10th session of the IPCC Working Group II (Yokohama, Japan); international conference of experts in the field of research and innovation policies as well as scientists named "Cooperation between the EU and EaP countries in the field of science, technology and innovation in order to solve social problems related to climate, natural resources and environment (Yerevan, Armenia); 40th session of the subsidiary bodies of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol (UN FCCC and KP) (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany); seminar of the regional program project "Climate East" 180 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation in the framework of the European Union, "EU-Eastern Partnership" on the international negotiation process on climate change (Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany). According to the decision of the 25th session of the Interstate Council of Hydrometeorology of the Commonwealth of Independent States (hereinafter - CIS), held on October 16-17, 2013 (Yerevan, Armenia), Belarus was suggested to explore the creation of the conditions in the Republic of Belarus for Eurasian Regional Office of the World Meteorological Organization for the CIS Member States. This office is expected to create for the closer contact with the WMO Secretariat with national hydrometeorological services of the CIS on the implementation of the WMO Strategic Plan and the implementation of priority international programs, as well as providing support and assistance in the development and implementation of the regional programs. The Policy and the institutional mechanisms for the observation and research of climate change in the country should be integrated into international cooperation on climate change. Currently, it is carried out with international organizations and the Federal organizational structures such as United Nations Development Program in Belarus, the United Nations Environment Program, the UN Economic Commission of Europe, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the World Climate Research Program, the Interstate Environmental Council of the CIS, the Union State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of environmental pollution, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Some steps towards the development of climate research and their applications in various industries are made in CIS countries. The hydrometeorological security concept of the Commonwealth of Independent States is worked out. The concept is approved by the Council of Heads of Governments of the CIS № 1129 on April 16, 2004. The concept formulated key goals, objectives and principles of hydrometeorological safety. The hydrometeorological security is a part of national security and the responsibility of the State. One of the main tasks of ensuring hydrometeorological safety is timely receipt of reliable and comprehensive information, forecasts and warnings of weather phenomena hazardous associated with climate change, to ensure timely organization of the life safety and property protection of the population and prevent possible harm to the economy. Created Union State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of environmental pollution performs coordinating activities in the area of climate data management, development of forecasts of different lead time, the use of hydro-meteorological information and knowledge in various sectors of the economy of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. 181 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Belarus takes part in different international projects. Since 2009 the SI “RHMC” participates in the international technical assistance «BALTRAD - improving the network of weather radar stations in the Baltic Sea Region". «BALTRAD» - is a three-year project of the European Union, which aims at creating the Baltic Sea Region network radio-meteorological radars operating in real time. The project partners are the National Meteorological Service of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Belarus. At the moment, a unified network of radio-meteorological stations in the Baltic Sea region, including the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Information units of exchange radar data (radio-meteorological information) with project partners are organized in the SI “RHMC” and the national airport Minsk. These units are tested. Mutual exchange radio-meteorological information with project partners is organized in the required format and real time. Now, the work is continued in the framework of the project «BALTRAD +» (20122014). The main objective of this project is improving the mechanism of radio-meteorological information to consumers and providing actual, forecast, as well as emergency information on dangerous weather phenomena, resulting in the project «BALTRAD +». Norway, Germany and Lithuania are joined «BALTRAD +» at this stage. The main task is to make «BALTRAD +» a constant and operational element, integrating it into the formal chains of producing meteorological services in the Baltic Sea region. An important feature of the project is the creation of functional for the primary treatment of radio-meteorological data (radar reflectivity, the height of the upper / lower limit of radio and so forth), using a uniform and consistent methodology across the Baltic Sea Region; giving each country in the region to process its own data and other weather radars network according to their own needs. These techniques can be implemented into a united network of radio-meteorological locators to improve the preparation and process of the raw data radio-meteorological or clarify radar detection criteria of meteorological phenomena, as well as an aid-radio-meteorology and end users. The result of the project is a new element of regional infrastructure of the Baltic Sea, a network of SCLC and the creation of common standards for the exchange and processing of data radio-meteorological satisfying both the National Weather Service, and regional interests. The technology developed for the Baltic region, can also be used outside the region - at the rest part of Europe, as a part of the Information System of the World Meteorological Organization. 182 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Picture 8.1 – Radio-meteorological project information BALTRAD + as at 10/28/2013. 00:4500.00 Since 1993 Belarus is a member of the international project BALTEX. BALTEX - (Baltic Sea Experiment) is the International Scientific European project designed to study and forecast the weather, climate and global changes in the environment. The main practical goal of the project is to use the materials of factual observations and actively promote modeling o fall the processes that determine the water cycle and energy within and between components of the climate system in the Baltic Sea basin. BALTEX project started in 1992 as an experimental (pilot) project designed to improve the understanding of natural processes and mechanisms. BALTEX is a subproject of a larger international project called "Global Experiment for the Study of Energy and Water Cycle» (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment - GEWEX), which in turn leads the work of the World Climate Research Program (World Climate Research Program - WCRP ). Scientific interest in the project BALTEX is focused on the study of functioning of the hydrological cycle and energy exchange between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface, since these processes control and regulate the climate at a fundamental level. The object of study is the Baltic Sea and a large catchment area region is a unique European pool of interest for modeling of natural processes and the development of new advanced scientific concepts. 183 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation BALTEX is one of the biggest scientific projects in Europe. It connects scientists and experts from Germany (which is the organizer and founder of the project), Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Belarus. The structure of BALTEX is organized in such a way to coordinate and effectively support the work of the international project in accordance with general GEWEX, WCRP and WMO, as well as coordinate the interaction of all participants in the project. It should be noted that the subproject on the assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea (Baltic Assessment of Climate Change) is of great scientific importance and its purpose is to collect and evaluate information on past, present and future climate change as well as its impact on ecosystems in the Baltic Sea. Within this sub-project the issues of current climate change and the planning of future anthropogenic climate change. In 2013 the project BALTEX was completed. It was replaced by a new, updated project called “Baltic Earth”. The succeeding project inherited all the major traditions BALTEX, but, at the same time, being developed in line with current trends occurring in the environment and society changed its concept and set new research goals. The updated project BALTIC EARTH aims to achieve an improved understanding of the general system of the Baltic region. This means that the main objects of study remained as those of BALTEX, but at the same time, the task set was to get an improved study of the Earth system, covering the processes occurring in the atmosphere, on land and at sea, as well as to take into account human influence on climate. New scientific objectives are formulated in the form of "scientific challenges", which cover the most important aspects of the occurring natural processes: − dynamics of salinity of the Baltic Sea; − biogeochemical cycle in the water-land; − natural disasters and hazards; − study of the dynamics of sea level using remote monitoring systems, − the influence of anthropogenic factors on the environment pool. Project No 00079039 "Water Resources Management of Neman River Basin Based on Adapting to Climate Change". The overall objective of this project is to improve integrated river basin management and transboundary cooperation in the face of climate change in the basin of the Neman River. The project was implemented in 2012-2013 by the UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Water Convention) and the UNDP office in Belarus, with financial support from Finland and Sweden, through the initiative of OSB (ENVSEC). The project aims to strengthen the capacity of adaptation to climate change in countries (Belarus, Lithuania, Russia), which share water resources in the basin of the Neman, by supporting the dialogue and cooperation on measures necessary for the 184 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation development of adaptation strategies in a transboundary context. In the framework of the project the following was implemented: − generalization of the overall assessment of the current state of surface water quality in the basin of the Neman at an agreed (Belarus-Lithuania) assessment; − a forecast change of the surface water quality in the basin of the Neman on the territory of Belarus with regard to climate change; − drafted preliminary recommendations to improve the management of water resources in the basin of the Neman (the territory of the Republic of Belarus), taking into account adaptation to climate change. The study of Antarctica. Acknowledging the interest of all mankind that Antarctica shall eternally continue to be used exclusively for peaceful purposes and shall not become the scene or object of international discord, Belarus acceded to the Antarctic Treaty (Law of the Republic of Belarus as of 19 July 2006 “On Accession of the Republic of Belarus to the Antarctic Treaty”). National Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus is also the primary developer and executor of the State program "Monitoring of the polar regions of the Earth and support of the Arctic and Antarctic expeditions in 2007-2010 and for the period up to 2015", approved by the Council of Ministers № 1104 dated 31 August 2006, as well as the co-executor of the State program "Monitoring of the polar regions of the Earth and support of the Arctic and Antarctic expeditions in 2011-2015", approved by Resolution of the Council of Ministers № 587dated May 10, 2011. As part of this Program the system of hydro-meteorological observations and measurements, as well as observations of the state of the environment at the base area of the Belarusian Antarctic station (set of observations on the state of the environment) was established. Hydrometeorological observations and works in the base area of the Belarusian Antarctic station will be designed to provide the scientific and economic interests of the Republic of Belarus in the under-investigated areas of the Earth and will include both research (tasks) and sections related to forwarding service jobs of national polar expeditions and will later be used to study climate change. Already at present time as a result of the participants’ observations of polar expeditions in the area of Mount Evening the first scientific data on meteorological parameters of basic elements (maximum and minimum air and soil temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, solar radiation, albedo surface) was obtained. The main components of the radiation balance were also measured by means of an automated system of solar radiation observations ASAN "Peleng SF-16" (produced by JSC "Peleng" Republic of Belarus). 185 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Within the framework of the Sixth Belarusian seasonal Antarctic Expedition (2nd BAE) in Antarctica, held as part of the Belarusian polar explorers of the 59th Russian Antarctic expedition at the Antarctic station "Progress" (RAE "Progress") since December 18, 2013 till April 6, 2014 as part of the research activities on hydrometeorological support the activities of the Belarusian Antarctic expedition and climate research the main components of the radiation balance by means of the automated system of solar radiation observations ASAN "Peleng SF-16" (produced by JSC "Peleng" Republic of Belarus) were also measured, and in the framework of the joint Russian-Belarusian program of radiometric investigations of atmospheric aerosol and reflection spectra of the underlying surface monitoring,complex investigation of ozone layer and ultraviolet radiation (UV) in Antarctica was implementedby means of new hardware developed by Belarusian specialists. In this regard, it should be reasonable to provide a system of continuous monitoring of the natural environment in the area of Mount Evening, which will provide: − regular surface meteorological observations on the state of the environment on the mainland and the accumulation of meteorological information on the digital media; − meteorological services and provision of hydrometeorological safety of life in Antarctica; − restoration of interrupted observations series for modeling of climate processes; − implementation of observations of solar and heat radiation (radiation balance components) that directly affect the climate parameters. Another important area of international cooperation of the Republic of Belarus is the participation in the work of ICAO; our country has become its member since June 4, 1993. Cooperation is carried out by order of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Belarus № 2022X11 "On accession to the Convention on International Civil Aviation" (Chicago, 7 December 1944) dated December 9, 1992. ICAO is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for the development of international standards, recommended practices and rules in the technical, economic and legal areas of international civil aviation. Today the Department of Aviation of the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus (hereinafter - the Department of Aviation) in ICAO represents the Republic of Belarus as the national aviation administration. Department of Aviation receives regulatory documents for safety, air traffic management, security, maintenance of passengers, baggage and cargo, the formation of terrestrial infrastructure of civil aviation and other areas of aviation activity from ICAO. The main efforts of ICAO are aimed at ensuring that the national aviation regulations and air traffic services procedures correspond to the modern requirements and are consistent with the 186 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation most common standards. Different seminar programs workshops and working groups are being organized under ICAO which are designed to increase awareness of the new systems and procedures and to facilitate their implementation. Final decisions on the implementation of ICAO standards and guidelines of global air traffic are entirely dependent on the efficiency and quality of the specialists of the Department of Aviation, as the Republic of Belarus has the right to vote in the final decision on all matters of program activities of ICAO. Since 2006, due to the lack of funds and the reduction of aviation specialists staff of the Department of Aviation, the mission of the Republic of Belarus within the permanent bodies of ICAO is performed in the way of empowering the representatives of aviation organizations for such activities. Negotiation and adoption of guidelines for the development of civil aviation is also carried out under the auspices of the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC). IAC meets the specialized coordination commission, which analyzes the changes and trends in the development of civil aviation proposed by ICAO as well as its technical modernization. During the meetings common agreed solutions, which are submitted for the approval by the Council on aviation and airspace utilization States (members of the Agreement on Civil Aviation), are developed. At the meeting of the Management Group of the Committee for the Protection of the environment from the impact of ICAO aviation which was held in St. Petersburg from 9 to 13 July 2013, important agreements on one of the main problems of the development of international standards for the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) - rates (indices), which characterize the carbon dioxide emissions for the entire flight cycle of an aircraft, were reached. The final version of the future certified rates of carbon dioxide emissions were approved at the meeting. The next important step in the development of standards for CO2 emissions will be the development of new certified procedures, the definition of the limits of applicability of the standard and maximum permissible levels of rates [6]. Department of Aviation of the Republic of Belarus performs activities in accordance with the sectoral program for the protection of the environment for 2011-2015, approved by the Resolution Ministry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus № 101 as of 27.12.2010. The Republic of Belarus also cooperates with other countries in terms of assistance in emergency situations that could have an impact on the climate. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus according to the decree of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus №1161 dated 04.08.2010 assistance to the Russian Federation in fighting forest and peat fires in Ryazan region was performed. Within the period of 187 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation 2011-2014 Belarusian helicopters of the Ministry of Emergency Situations were used in Turkey and Greece in order to extinguish fires in ecosystems. In 2014, two helicopters with rescuers were sent to Serbia to provide assistance in liquidation of flood consequences. 8.2 Research 8.2.1 Research in Climate Change Climate change is one of the most important challenges of the XXI century, encompassing environmental, economic and social aspects of sustainable development of any country, including the Republic of Belarus. In this regard, the role of scientific research aimed at providing public administrations and companies with the justificated information about the observed and expected climate change and its possible consequences has been increased. The following organizations perform climate change research and the development of measures to mitigate the effects of climate change and adaptation sectors of the economy to the changes in Belarus: − State Institution "Republican Hydrometeorological Center" - monitoring, climate observation, management of climate inventory, climate change studies; − SSI "Institute for Nature NAS Belarus" - research and assessment of climate change and its impact on the economy and public health; − RUE "Bel SRC "Ecology"- scientific and technical support to the UN FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, including preparation and organization of greenhouse gas emissions inventory, national communications, the development of the main activities and programs in the field of climate change, measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adaptation measures to climate change, etc. − Establishments of the Ministry of Education: Belarusian State University, Brest Technical University, Gorki Agricultural Academy, International Sakharov State University, Belarusian State University, and others perform various studies in the field of climate change and ecology, the study of agroclimatic resources, preparation and publication textbooks in the field of meteorology and climate. Annually the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus together with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection issues an environmental bulletin "State of the Environment in Belarus", which contains systematized information on the status and trends of environmental components of Belarus, including trends and climate change. Environmental Bulletin is intended for professionals working in the field of environment, teachers and students 188 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation of various educational institutions, as well as for a wide range of readers interested in environmental issues. SI "RHMC" prepares an annual "Survey of climatic characteristics and hydrometeorological hazards on the territory of the Republic of Belarus." It fits climatic characteristic of the past year, which contains analyzed climatic features of the year and shows the most significant anomalies of temperature and precipitation, their frequency of occurrence in the period of instrumental observations in Belarus as well as the reflected climate change taking place in the country. The survey also contains information about severe weather circumstances, observed in the territory of the Republic of Belarus during the past year registered by the hydrometeorological stations and posts, as well as phenomena, not recorded by the observation network, but the cause of the damage and visual estimates of which have reached the criteria of severe weather circumstances. The Survey describes the synoptic conditions and meteorological parameters during which these severe consequences appeared. Each case of SW is calculated and indicated in property damage. The occurring global climate change requires the development of strategies for adapting the economies of all countries to these changes, taking into account their regional characteristics, that is why, an important role plays the international cooperation of the Republic of Belarus in this area, in particular, with the Russian Federation. During 2000-2011 the Republic of Belarus participated in joint programs of the Union State "Improvement and development of a common technology for obtaining, collecting, analyzing and forecasting, storage and distribution of hydrometeorological information and data on pollution of the natural environment of 20032006" and in "Improving the system of population and industries of the Russian Federation and Belarus on existing and projected climatic conditions, state and pollution of the natural environment of 2007-2011". Execution of joint programs of the Union State has allowed to give an estimate of the expected changes, primarily temperature and precipitation, to create a unified system for monitoring climate change in the territory of Belarus and Russia, as well as to ensure the development of a methodology to address these changes in the regulations on the applied climatology (building climatology, agroclimatology, etc.). Works on the following projects were implemented during 2003-2006: “Research and evaluation of global and regional climate”. As a result of studies methodological guidelines for the calculation of climatic resources and climate risks, studies of the effects of climate change on construction, energy, transport and health were created. During the temperature study (the amplitude of the diurnal temperature) temperature differences in urban 189 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation and rural areas were set, which are the consequence not only of the general climate change, but also of the anthropogenic factors influence. “Monitoring of climate change”. On the basis of studies of changes in air temperature and precipitation over the past 15 years, taking into account new technologies of the climate change forecasts, scenarios of the climate change in Belarus for the period till 2050 were developed. The evaluation of changes of agroclimatic resources of Belarus with the release of the new frontiers of agro-climatic regions (as a result of warming) was given. “Development of a methodology to incorporate the climate change in the Applied Climatology (building climatology, agroclimatology etc.)”. Until recently the change of climatic characteristics required the clarification of the Building Code of Belarus and the Building Regulations of the Russian Federation and CIS countries by the climatologists ("Building Climatology"). On the basis of this methodology Amendment №1 to the NSC "Building Climatology" was prepared, which reflects changes in the temperature characteristics of cold and warm periods, including the period of warming. Using the developed methodology for climate change incorporation recommendations for preparation and development of the scientific manual on agro-climatic resources in a changing climate were developed. −“Preparation of climate handbooks, atlases, summarizing other materials using modern technologies, specialized software climate information”. As part of this project methodology for testing the uniformity of monthly, seasonal and annual indicating rows was developed which allowed to highlight the trends in the series of meteorological parameters, explore the natural variability of the climate characteristics. Verification of the uniformity of rows is required when creating a reference and regulatory publications, creating a climate databases. Systematic specialized climatic indices (on construction, fuel and energy complex, overland transport and health) were prepared that are used for providing consumers with specialized information, as well as the advertising of hydrometeorological products. In 2007-2011 the works on the following projects were performed: “Assessment of the observed trends of climate change at the regional level and newsletters about its condition and changes in the Union State". A number of research studies were made in which the observed trends of climate change and a quantitative evaluation of the contribution of aerosols in the current climate change were assessed. The fact of the warming trend shift since the second half of the 90s of the last century from the predominantly winter to the summer warming was confirmed. The results obtained are used in the preparation of research information about the state and the climate. Newsletters and surveys of this kind are used for the interests of decision-makers in order for them to be better informed, as well as a wide range of industry 190 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation employees, researchers and the public. SI “RHMC” participates in the preparation of the consolidated annual report and the state of climate change on the territory of CIS member states, which is posted on SEAKTS (North-Eurasian Climate Centre) website. The evaluation of the climatic characteristics of Belarus for the period from 1991 till 2010 was performed and the overview of the climate state and trends for the period of 1991-2010 was made; it summarizes data on the climate state and trends in the territory of the Republic of Belarus for the last 20-year period. A comprehensive analysis of climate change for the period 1991-2010 of the Republic of Belarus is used for climate information services, where necessaryclimatic features of the recent period must be taken into account. - “Study and scenario estimates of expected changes in the regional climate on the territories of Belarus and Russia”. Within the project framework studies on theevaluation of the validity of climate trends in Belarus as well as the research on vital climate change in different regions of the Republic of Belarus were performed according to the laws of formation of the major climatic anomalies in the Republic of Belarus. The results of the work are needed to carry out adequate reliable estimates of climate change. - “Assessment of the effects of climate change and its impact on the basic spheres of socio-economic activities and recommendations preparation for the adaptation of the basic sectors of the economy of Belarus and Russia to possible climate changes”. Within the project framework the study of climatic and agro-climatic indicators in the context of climate change for agriculture was made. Scientific and application guide as well as the poster "Agro-climatic resources of the Republic of Belarus in a changing climate" were prepared. The results of the prepared publications and issues are used to provide the agriculture with agro-climatic information for current and future planning, agro-technical and other agricultural activities; agroclimatic zoning when placing crops; development of methods for agrometeorological forecasting; assessment of climate change. The territory of the Republic of Belarus is evaluated on the exposure to atmospheric destruction of buildings in the face of climate change. Currently, changing climatic characteristics demanded specifications of the basic climatic factors affecting the durability of buildings. Basic climatic factors were specified (precipitation temperature, wind speed and direction and a combination thereof) affecting the durability of buildings, which may find application in the construction industry. Also in the framework of international cooperation the State Hydrometeorological Service prepares an annual WMO information containing a brief description of the climate of the past year and information on hazardous weather phenomena observed in the Republic of Belarus. In 2012, information for WMO on temperature and precipitation stations having more than a hundred years of observations was prepared. In 2013 the data on daily rainfall in the Global Precipitation 191 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Climatology Centre (GPCC, Offenbach city, Germany) was provided in order to support the expansion of its activities. A series of data were provided for the publication «World Weather Records» (Global weather data) to the German Weather Service in Hamburg for global climate monitoring and evaluation as well as for the World Data Center for Meteorology.The data are being constantly added. Annually, climatic data characteristics are providedto the North Eurasian Climate Centre (SEAKTS, Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow) in order to prepareaconsolidated annual report on the state of MSG and climate change in the territories of the CIS member states. A number of scientific studies on climate change should be highlighted, which were performed by leading educational institutions of the country (Belarusian State University, Brest Technical University, Goretsky Agricultural Academy and others.): - “Geoecological estimation of climate comfort of Belarusian cities”. This paper is devoted to an important assessment of climatic conditions comfort of large cities in Belarus, and their possible changes. Investigation of climate comfort of cities stays on the agenda and has fundamental and practical importance. - “Moisture reserves in mineral soilsof Belarus: assessment and forecast”. The zoning ofBelarus is made based onthe changing dynamics ofstocksof productive moisturein mineral soils. Theforecasts ofchanges inmoisture reservesfor variousclimate change scenarios are made. - “Recommendations on hydrometeorological safety cultivation of potatoes and sugar beet in a changing climate." Recommendationsfor adaptationof growing potatoesand sugar beetsto the climate change were developed. In 2006 -2011 RUE "Bel SRC "Ecology" together with SSI "Institute for Nature NAS Belarus" carried out a number of research works under the obligations of the Republic of Belarus under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, namely: − “Analysis and assessment of current climate changes in the Republic of Belarus”; − “Vulnerability assessment of various sectors of the economy to changing climatic conditions”; − “Assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture, forestry, water bodies and social spheres”. Analysis of the coefficients used for the calculation of the greenhouse gas emissions in six sectors of the national economy, "Energy", "Industrial Processes", "Use of solvents and other products", "Agriculture", "Land use, land use change and forestry", "Waste" was performed. As a result of this analysis, in 2008 the sector "LULUCF" and "waste" were chosen as priorities for the development of national factors; 192 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Much attention is paid to the impact of climate change on various sectors of the economy and adaptation to these changes. Within the framework of the State program on mitigating the consequences of climate change the following is planned for the period 2013-2020: − performance of scientific work "Assessing the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources of the territory of Belarus", which will result in the prepared scientific applied agroclimatic reference for the assessment of basic conditions of growth of agricultural cultures over a period of warming; −development of technologies of cultivation of drought-resistant and heat-loving crops; −adaptation of species diversity of food crops to changing climatic conditions and the related optimization of the structure of sown areas. Over the years, Belarusian scientists conducted the research of bogs and peat deposits in the context of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration. Significant contribution to the study of the role of wetland ecosystems and peat soils was made by Academician N.N. Bambalov. His monograph "The balance of organic matter in peat soils and methods of its study" (1984) and "The role of wetlands in the biosphere" (2007) can truly serve as the first textbook for scientists and experts in the field of bogs research [15, 16]. On the basis of the research of marsh systems conducted by SSI "Institute for Nature of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus" Technical Code of Common Practice "Environmental Protection and Nature. Climate. Greenhouse gas emissions. Rules of calculation of emissions and removals from natural wetland ecosystems, drained peat soils, developed and developing peat deposits" were developed (TAP 17.09-02-2011 (02120)). This legal document was approved and put into effect by the Resolution of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus № 13-T dated September 5, 2011. The Code establishes the rules for calculating emissions and removals of greenhouse gases by natural wetland ecosystems, the rules for calculating greenhouse gas emissions drained peat soils used for crops, worked out and developed by peat deposits, depending on the type of peat deposits, and on the basis of the state statistical records of their areas under inventory of greenhouse gases and science-based standards for specific indicators of greenhouse gas emissions per unit area of the territory. Modern science has methods that allowto perform direct instrumental measurements of the emission and absorption of greenhouse gases by various terrestrial ecosystems, including swamps and peat swamps. Moreover, it should be noted that the research on the evaluation of greenhouse gas fluxes from natural wetlands and peatlands drained through direct instrumental measurements are already being conducted on Belarusian peatlands. 193 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation For the first time in Belarus flux measurements of three main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) from peat bogs and swamps using instrumental methods were carried out in the framework of the international project "Restoration of peatlands in Belarus and the application of the concept of sustainable management - reducing the impact on the climate effect on the economy and biodiversity". Funding for the development works was provided in the framework of the International Climate Initiative (ICI) of the Federal Ministry of Nature Protection of Germany. The scientific activity of the project on the studies of greenhouse gas fluxes from peatlands was performed by the group of Belarusian and German scientists created under the public organization APB "Birdlife Belarus" as well as the Scientific and Practical Center of NAS of Belarus for Bioresources, in collaboration with the leading experts in this area from the Centre on Agro landscape Studies named after Leibniz (Germany) and the University of Greifswald (Germany). Flow measurements were performed using a modern modification of the method of closed emission chambers. The method of closed emission chambers was used to study greenhouse gas balances of swamps and other projects. In particular, the international technical assistance project of UNDPGEF project "Development of integrated approaches to the management of wetlands, taking into account the principle of multi-landscape planning in order to obtain multilateral environmental benefits" and international technical assistance project "Implementation of a new management concept for re-waterlogged peatland sustainable energy production from biomass (energy of marshes)". Over the past 5 years during all the research projects 30 habitats that are most common and specificfor marshes and drained peatlands of Belarus have been studied. It is planned that by the end of 2015, calculations and analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for the above habitats mires and peatlands will be completed and published in international and Belarusian scientific peer-reviewed journals. Accumulated for the recent years scientific experience and materials in the field greenhouse gas emissions from peat bogs and swamps indicates that Belarus has the potential for the development in this area of national methodology of higher levels of methodological assessment on greenhouse gas emissions (Tier 2 and 3 ) [17-19]. In 2013, the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus prepared an analytical report "Climate change and its impact on various sectors of the economy", which is the decision of the Presidium of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus recommended to be sent to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus, Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus, the Ministry of Forestry of the 194 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Republic of Belarus, the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus, regional executive committees. Ongoing studies possess practical value. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Belarus, the country is implementing definite measures for adapting agriculture to climate change. In recent years the acreage under maize grain has greatly been increased. Growth and grain yield of corn and green mass is directly dependent on the amount of effective temperatures during the growing season and its maturation. Currently, the country has almost reached the level of complete self-sufficiency in the production of corn. For this purpose two factory for calibration of corn seeds were built in Mozyr and Ivantsevichy. Winter barley production, which yields is not inferior to other cultures has recently been introduced at the farms of Brest and Gomel region; its advantage is thatitscropping starts 2-3 weeks earlier than with other crops. This happens also due to the increase of effective temperature amounts in June - July. The acreage for rape seeds has been increased. In southern regions the cropping of soybean is done annually (up to 5 ha of the territory), the croppings of sunflowers, green peas, sweet corn, green beans have been increased. Commercial cultivation of onions in annual crops have been mastered over the past seven years. The cultivation of thermophilic early potato varieties have also been mastered. The work continues on the creation of industrial plantations of grapes. 8.2.2 Forecasting and modeling of climate change in the Republic of Belarus Adaptation to climate change, while maintaining the goal of achieving sustainable development requires accurate and reliable prediction of changes in regional weather and climatic conditions, and especially natural disasters. However, in today's climate models there are still serious shortcomings in the reproduction of regional climate variability and, consequently, in the development of the required information on regional changes in the level of precision needed to the society. In this context, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has proposed to develop a strategy to accelerate improvement and practical application of climate forecasts needed in the light of global climate change, especially those that occur at the regional level. The main emphasis in this case needs to be done on the reproduction and prediction of the physical component of the climate system. Since the success of climate modeling and prediction are heavily dependent on progress in the field of weather forecasting, as the accounting processes and biogeochemical cycles in long-term predictions of climate change require improved perceptions of the physical system. Climate modeling should be ready to move towards 195 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation fundamentally new approaches and rely on the continuous creation of predictive technologies for the continuum of "weather-climate". Specialists, working with WCRP, identified four main working goals: 1) development of models which realistically display all aspects of the climate system; 2) comparison of these models with observations to assess their adequacy, accuracy, and the existing shortcomings; 3) increase in the computing power by 3-4 orders of magnitude compared with the leading edge of today's opportunities; 4) opening of the World Climate project or program to achieve these objectives, and to which all countries would provide experts and funding. Implementation of these four tasks exceeds the capabilities and resources of any single country and that is why the project calls for the worldwide cooperation and coordination in the field of modeling for climate prediction. International experts and climatologists proposed the initiative to create a project on climate forecasts, led by the WCRP and national forecasting centers including weather and climate, as well as a broad community of scientists. The aim of the project will be the preparation of the global climate information for the scientific substantiation of the discussions taking in the world covering the ways to mitigate climate impacts, as well as the support for regional adaptation to climate change and the adoption of other solutions that meet the major challenges of the XXI century. [7] 8.2.3 Projections (scenarios) of climate change in the XXI century in Belarus Current physical representations of the climate nature allow you to simulate the climate system response to the impact of natural and anthropogenic origin. Still underestimation of the role of natural factors in models of climate change, such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the content of nitrogen in the stratosphere and troposphere, sulfate and other aerosols is noted; complexity of accounting for these factors and the variety of feedbacks between them is mentioned. New observations indicate different cases where atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is not able to adequately reproduce the observed climate change. Because of this, in project [8] it is proposed to consider the simulation results provided by AGCMs not as forward-looking but as heuristic, used only to assess the sensitivity of the climate system to the effects of certain disturbing factors. However, since the models are developed on the basis of the current level of knowledge about the behavior of natural systems, there is no reason to completely abandon the use of AGCMs for predictive assessments in cases where the predictions, which were taken to explain the regularities, are consistent with the available experimental data. By virtue of this model GCA 196 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation may be useful to assess the changes that occur in the climate system in determining the external scenarios of anthropogenic impacts on the system. At the same time we should not exaggerate today's advances in climate modeling, because the models do not provide a complete description of physically important processes in the climate system and they do not take into account the impact on the atmosphere of some "small" climatic factors. It is known that the climate has a large natural variability, ie. the variability that is not caused by anthropogenic impacts and can be unpredictable over the next several years. This is a serious obstacle in terms of climate change causes detection and identification in the coming decades. In addition to trend components in the climate change attributed to the effects of the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, extrapolated by the end of the century, there are cyclical fluctuations in the climate change. Thus, a change in temperature of the northern hemisphere and the change of the global temperature is noticeable in quasi-sixty years cycle. Maximum values of this cycle occured in 30-40-ies of the last century and the end of the twentieth century - the beginning of the twenty-first century. In recent years, the rate of temperature rise in the northern hemisphere and globally slowed slightly. This may provide some grounds to believe that in the coming years, the rate of temperature rise at least slows down, and, perhaps, stops. The process of reducing the amount of temperature trends will continue until the 30-ies. While slowing the rate of temperature rise in Belarus becomes noticeable in the winter and spring. Taking into consideration that the amplitude of the said cycle of temperature change is approximately 25-30% of the total long-term temperature variation, the value of the positive temperature trend can be reduced by a specified amount. Most clearly similar cyclical fluctuations are observed in the temperature of Belarusian summer. The forecasts which are relevant to the scenarios are called projections. Scenario forecasts (projections) are conditional, it is unknown which scenario will choose humanity at its development. In recent years, the most detailed study and modeling of climate in Russia and CIS countries, including Belarus, was performed by the group of scientists: V.P. Meleshko, V.M. Katsovyj, V.A. Govorkova et al. who worked at Main Geophysical Observatory named after Voeikov [8, 9]. Table 8.1 [9] shows the changes in average surface air temperature and the corresponding standard deviation (ºC) for different periods of the XXI century and the different scenarios, and Table 7.2 - changes in seasonal temperatures for the same periods and groups of scenarios. 197 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Table 8.1 - Changes in the average surface air temperature and the corresponding standard deviations (° C) at the beginning (2011-2030.), middle (2041-2060) and the end (2080-2099) of the 21 th century - the scenario B1 (14 models), A1B (15 models) and A2 (16 models) Period 2011–2030 2041–2060 2080–2099 В1 А1В А2 В1 А1В А2 В1 А1В А2 1,1±0,5 1,1±0,7 0,9±0,5 2,0±0,8 2,4±0,8 2,1±0,6 2,6±1,0 3,8±1,1 4,4±1,0 Table 8.2 - Changes in seasonal surface air temperature and the corresponding standard deviations (° C) at the beginning (2011-2030), middle (2041-2060) and the end (2080-2099) of the 21st century - scenario A1B (15 models) Period 2011–2030 2041–2060 2080–2099 winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn winter spring summer autumn 1,3±0,9 1,0±09 1,0±0,6 0,9±0,5 3,1±1,0 2,3±0,9 2,2±1,0 2,2±0,7 4,7±1,6 3,5±1,1 3,4±1,2 3,4±1,1 As seen in Table 8.2, in the first period (2011-2030) thetemperature increases on average by 1 ° C; for a second period (2041-2060) - for two small some odd degrees, and by the end of the XXI century the temperature rise differs strongly from 2,6º to 4,4ºC. Actually, the same values of average annual temperature growth were obtained earlier using a simpler approach [10]. In winter, the temperature rise is slightly higher than during other seasons of the year, especially at the end of the XXI century; during the autumn the temperature rise is minimum compared with other seasons of the year. The temperature rise in adjacent periods differs in average by 1 ° C. Diagnosis and prognosis of extreme temperatures (maximum, minimum, the amplitude of the diurnal and annual progress) is of particular interest. Changes in extreme temperatures were calculated over an ensemble of nine AGCMs, which measure the success of the index calculation extremeness of the current climate [10]. By the middle of the XXI century the increase of the lowest daily minimums of surface air temperature (annual minimum temperature) throughout the year is expected. In middle and high latitudes the greatest contribution to the rise of temperature in winter is made by the displacement probability distributions toward higher values of lower percentiles (close to the annual minimum). Additionally the increase of the asymmetry of the temperature distribution is expected, reducing the interquartile range and variability of winter temperature distributions and extreme thermal regime in winter. Areas of the most significant changes are in satisfactory agreement with areas where the projected significant reduction in the lifetime of the 198 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation snow cover is predicted. Such areas should include the territory of Belarus, where the amplitude of the annual extreme daily temperatures will decline by mid-century, as it will reduce the number of days with minimum daily temperature below 0 ° C for 20-30 days. Analysis of daily minimum and maximum temperatures in Belarus for the period from 1960 till 1997 showed a decrease in the amplitude of the diurnal variation of temperature in the last two decades due to the growth of night (minimum) temperatures [11]. The amplitude of the diurnal temperature falls particularly strong in major cities than in rural areas, due to aerosol pollution of cities [11, 12]. The latter leads to a decrease of daily (maximum) temperature. The major feature, which consists of a more rapid increase of nighttime temperatures compared with daytime temperatures, is also stored in the summer months, although the rate of growth in this season is much lower. Generally, the daily minimum temperature of the republic in the winter increases during the period under review 30% faster than the maximum ones. In the northern, central and southern regions of Belarus the growth rate of the minimum and maximum temperatures is 1.41; 1.33 and 1.23 accordingly [12]. These results confirm the presence of asymmetry in the diurnal temperature change in a warming climate. A similar conclusion can be made about the annual variation. Its reduction is associated with an increase in winter temperatures. In the last 10-15 years there has been a new trend in a significant increase in temperature in the summer months (especially in the second half of the summer), which may introduce adjustments to the latter conclusion. The amplitude of the annual variation in temperature over the period from 1937 to 1997 was falling due to the growth in the first of minimum (winter) temperatures of 2.0-2.5 ° C. The fall of the annual variation amplitude was approximately the same size, which indicates that it is winter temperatures that had a major impact on the decrease in the amplitude of the annual variation. Against the background of the average largest warming the number of days with extremely high daily air temperature and the duration of continuous episodes with extremely high temperature (heat wave) or with the temperature exceeding a certain value has almost universally been increased. In the current period of global warming the incidence of recurrence with temperatures ranging from 25.1 to 30.0 ° C has increased. If earlier the recurrence of such a high temperature in the city of Vitebsk, Minsk and Brest was equal to 0.11, 0.18 and 0.59 respectively, now it equals to 1.24; 1.38 and 3.31 respectively[25]. More and more cases where extremely high temperatures appear accompanied by high humidity, that is, when the climate is similar to tropical. 199 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Rainfall changes. Currently, there are serious uncertainties in the accuracy of predictions of climate change in global and regional scales, although the overall picture of climate change, based on the existing scenarios of sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, with a certain degree of reliability are well known. However, the transition from the temperature prediction to a reliable prediction of rainfall and, as a consequence, the hydrological regime of individual regions – lies still in the future. Currently, projections of regional precipitation are likely more indicative. These predictions can be used to describe the nature of the problems which may occur when climate changes. Even less certain are the long forewarning predictions or extreme climatic events (droughts, floods, severe and warm winters). Changes in the amounts of total annual precipitation and their standard deviations are shown in Table 8.3. The table shows the growth of the amount of precipitation for all ages. Growth of annual precipitation at the end of the century will be more than 5%. A large spread of projections for different scenarios of the first period (2011-2039) should be noted. Table 8.3 - Changes in annual total precipitation and its standard deviation (as a percentage relative to the current climate) at the beginning (2011-2030.), middle (2041-2060) and the end (2080-2099) of the XXI century - scenario B1 (14 models), A1B (15 models) and A2 (16 models) Period 2011–2030 2041–2060 2080–2099 В1 А1В А2 В1 А1В А2 В1 А1В А2 5,5±4,4 1,7±4,9 1,6±4,4 3,2±4,1 5,3±5,6 3,9±4,6 7,8±6,0 6,2±7,9 5,3±7,5 The most significant increase in precipitation is observed in winter, spring and, to a lesser extent, in autumn. The amount of summer precipitation decreases with time. Exceptions are the rainfalls of the second period (2041-2060) where a slight increase in rainfall is observed (Table 8.4). Table 8.4 - Changes in seasonal total precipitation and their its standard deviation (as a percentage relative to the current climate) at the beginning (2011-2030.), middle (20412060) and the end (2080-2099) of the XXI century - scenario B1 (14 models), A1B (15 models) and A2 (16 models) Period 2011–2030 2041–2060 2080–2099 wint sprin summ autum wint sprin summ autum wint sprin summ autum 2,6 3,1 -0,4 2,0 10,2 7,9 0,4 4,0 16,1 14,5 -6,0 2,5 200 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation However, the projection of annual precipitation in some cases are less than intermodel spread, and this suggests that the model does not even agree on a sign. The increase in the number of heavy precipitation in the areas with the decreasing amount of rainfall averages is reported by most AOGCMs. Changes in the hydrological regime. Significant changes in annual runoff by the middle of this century, based on the work [9], is not expected. It will range from -2% to +2%. Seasonal runoff values and standard deviations (in percent relative to the current climate) in the catchment area of the Dnepr, the Southern Bug and Dniester in this century are shown in Table 7.5. The table shows a slight increase in runoff in winter and fall runoff in other seasons of the year in all the considered epochs of the XXI century. This result is understandable, since the combined effect of the increase of winter precipitation and intensification of melting snow (it is already noticeable in the modern era) will lead to the increased runoff in winter. In other seasons, as can be seen from the table, the flow is reduced. But in reality, the observational data flow in recent decades says more about the growth of low flow, making projections runoff summer unconvincing, at least for today, and probably for the first epoch of the XXI century. Table 8.5 - Changes in seasonal runoff values and standard deviations (in percent relative to the current climate) in the catchment area of the rivers of the CIS-E (Dniester, Dnepr, Southern Bug) at the beginning (2011-2030), mid (2041-2060) and late (2080-2099) XXI century - A2 scenario (10 models) Period Winter Spring Summer Autumn 2011–2030 гг. 0,8±6,3 -3,2±5,8 -0,6±2,5 -0,1±1,6 2041–2060 гг. 3,4±7,0 -8,2±6,9 -1,1±2,8 -0,3±2,0 2080–2099 гг. 1,2±10,0 -13,1±12,5 -1,6±4,2 -2,3±1,9 During the past two decades different statistical methods to predict the flow have been widely used in our country [13]. In the works by A.G. Grinevich and V.N. Pluzhnikova it is shown that a decrease in precipitation would lead to a decrease in the average rate for the hydrological year by 4.5-8%, and a decrease in precipitation by 10% - to a decrease in runoff by 7- 16%. Increasing temperature at constant precipitation leads to a slight decrease in flow (3%). Simultaneous consideration of temperature increase by 2 ° C and precipitation decrease by 10% leads to a decrease in river flow by 13-14%. We have developed a multi-factor model, which is based on a standard water balance equation plot of land with an independent assessment of the main elements of the balance 201 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation (precipitation, evapotranspiration and climatic runoff) [13]. In developing the model hydrological and climatic hypothesis developed by V.S. Mezentsev was used [14]. Numerical experiment conducted for 9 different versions of measurement of temperature and precipitation. Below there are only the results of the calculation of flow only for the most probable variant of temperature and precipitation change: total annual precipitation increase by 10% while increasing the temperature by 2 ° C. Implementation of this option, based on the abovementioned model calculations, is possible only in the second half of this century. Upon implementing this variant the values of river flow will increase by 6.0%. Currently the following scenario is being implemented: the temperature increase and a slight drop in rainfall in the south and the increased rainfall in the north. This does not result in a statistically significant change in the river flow, but as a result of seasonal changes in water balance elements, as well as in the wind speed the transformation of the annual runoff distribution is observed – the spring flood runoff will markedly be reduced and winter low water runoff will be increased [12]. 8.3 Systematic observation 8.3.1 Climate Observing System in the Republic of Belarus, the national monitoring system and its connection to the Global Climate Observing System Climate observations form the basis for climate studies. They are also used for the setting of the initial conditions for its prediction. In this regard, the continuity and uniformity of climate observations over many decades are extremely important for the assessment of climate variability and climate change. Global measurements coordination of essential climate variables is still not easy. They require international coordination efforts of various organizations and programs, conducting measurements, and harmonization of requirements for observations with users of climate information. World Climate Programme (WCP) has worked tirelessly to develop a reliable global climate observing system. Numerous events are held for the Integrated Global Ocean Services System (IGOSS), the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the Atmospheric Research Environment Programme (AREP), the Atmospheric Research (GARP), the Agricultural Meteorology (AgMP). This activity is carried out in conjunction with the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The main objectives are to ensure compliance with national and international observational data standards in the field of climate research, analysis and climate prediction, as well as all the climate-relevant data and other information is obtained, maintained and distributed without any restrictions. Belarus' participation in the Global Observing System is to ensure the stable operation of ground observation network, observational data from satellites and their processing in order to 202 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation prepare weather forecasts analyzes and warnings for the relevant programs of the World Meteorological Organization and environmental programs of other international organizations. Global Observing System also provides observational data for research purposes in support of other programs, the World Meteorological Organization and the relevant programs of other international organizations. Global Observing System also provides observational data for research purposes in the support of other programs, the World Meteorological Organization and the relevant programs of other international organizations. The results of all types of meteorological observations do not lose their value over time. They are constantly used in developing methods for hydro-meteorological forecasts, drawing generalizations (handbooks, atlases, yearbooks, monthlies), climatic description of the territory, the calculation of statistical parameters of meteorological elements, etc. Therefore, the observation data should be kept and allow multiple handling and meet the requirements of: - reliability of the results of observations, which is achieved using standard equipment, attorneys and serviceable instruments and installations, compliance techniques of observation, a representative conditions of the stations and posts location; - homogeneity (comparability) of observations that provided by the use authorized for use when observing instruments and equipment common to all methods, constancy physiographic features and landscaped areas. Observation methods and technical capabilities Climate Observing defined by WMO executives to Instruments and Methods of Observation and legislated regulatory documents (technical codes of practice the Republic of Belarus on various types of meteorological observations and climate data, climate inventory management). The basis of the ground network observations constitutes of hydrometeorological stations which are divided into meteorological, hydrological, agro-meteorological, marsh, lake and background monitoring (Picture 8.2). 203 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Picture 8.2 - Diagram of a hydrometeorological stations network of the State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus Meteorological stations monitors the air temperature and humidity, soil (water) temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, horizontal visibility, shape, cloud amount and height of the lower limit, type, quantity and intensity of precipitation, atmospheric phenomena. Observations at the stations included in the international network, held simultaneously in the main: 00, 06, 12, 18 hours Universal Time Coordinated (hereinafter - the UTC) and additional 03, 09, 15, 21 h UTC synoptic. Getting the information for solving complex problems, by providing all kinds of weather information, is provided by a network of stationary points of meteorological observations, which are constructed in such a way that for any part of the service area you can obtain the values of the main meteorological measures with the required accuracy at a minimum density of the network. Ergonomically designed meteorological network consists of the main stations representative for large areas relative to the background climatic factors, additional stations, which serve to investigate local meteorological regime, as well as posts. Main stations are arranged so as to ensure the required accuracy interpolation of the background values of meteorological variables for each item at the territory between the stations. 204 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Among the major stations fiducial climatic stations are selected with long series of observations, which are specific to the region and serve as a basis for assessing climate change. Reliability of the observation results at meteorological stations provided by the fact that the measurements of meteorological parameters, used measuring instruments, approved for use on the web and attorneys of the metrological authorities. A modern system of climate data management using new technical means and the introduction of modern software systems for managing climate data bank (CLIWARE) for applications and dissemination of climate information among its users was introduced in In the SI "The Republican Hydrometeorological Center" in 2008. The system was developed by Russian Hydro-meteo center in accordance with the requirements of WMO. This allowed to solve issues on different sectors of the economy providing the climate information for the current and long-term planning; scientific research; assessment of climate change on a higher level. The system CliWare is currently implemented in work of SI "The Republican Hydrometeorological Center", regional hydrometeorological centers. Software is used to build and effective usage of various databases by the experts of the hydrometeorological services of Belarus and Russia, to increase efficiency and customer service quality of the hydrometeorological information. In general in Belarus system of collection, processing and transmission of the hydrometeorological information to international exchange and to the consumers responds to international requirements (Picture8.3). 205 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation СТРУКТУРА ИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ СЕТИ ГИДРОМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ СЛУЖБЫ РБ Республиканский гидрометеоцентр Москва, Москва, (зарубежная гидрометинформация) гидрометинформация) Гидрометцентр Центр телекоммуникаций ии Центр телекоммуникаций МЧС и другие республиканские ведомства обработки информации Служба телекоммуникации обработки информации и обработки Минск Минск гидрометеорологической информации Приём информации от ИСЗ РЦРКМ Центр по Центр по Витебск гидрометеорологии гидрометеорологии Центр по Центр по Гродно гидрометеорологии гидрометеорологии Центр Центр по по Брест гидрометеорологии гидрометеорологии Центр Центр по по Могилев гидрометеорологии гидрометеорологии Центр по Центр по Гомель гидрометеорологии гидрометеорологии Витебск Витебск Гродно Гродно Брест Брест Могилёв Могилёв Гомель Гомель облгидромет облгидромет 2 52 МС МС МС МС Метеорологические станции облгидромет 78 АЭ АЭ ГС ГС Аэрологические станции облгидромет АГМС АГМС Гидрологические посты 7 3 56 ГС ГС облгидромет АГМС АГМС МРЛ МРЛ МРЛ МРЛ АМСГ АМСГ АМСГ АМСГ Авиационные Агрометеорологические Метеорологические метеорологические радиолокаторы станции (посты) станции Picture 8.3 – The Structure of the Information Network of the State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus 8.3.2 Organization of the regional climate change monitoring of the Republic of Belarus As on January 01, 2014, the hydrometeorological activity in the Republic of Belarus is carried out 167 by hydrometeorological objects, including: National Hydrometeorological Center, National Centre of Radiation Control and Environmental Monitoring, 5 Regional Centers of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 2 inter-district Centers of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 32 meteorological, 2 hydrological, 9 specialized (6 agrometeorological, background lake, marsh monitoring stations), 8 aviation meteorological stations of civilians, 97 rivers and 10 lakes hydrological stations. In order to provide meteorological transport (air and ground) and urban infrastructure there are three meteorological radars (Brest, Gomel, Minsk). The data of radiosonde ascents is used for weather prediction models by upper-air stations (Brest, Gomel). At the end of the year specifying hydrometeorological observations plans and plans for the exchange and transfer of information for the following year are carried out yearly. These plans are approved annually by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection and distributed to the points of hydrometeorological observations. The plans include 206 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation observations of hydrometeorological parameters in connection with the requirements of WMO. The storage of the observation materials after processing is carried out in accordance with the "Regulations on the State Hydrometeorological and State Climate Inventory", approved by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus on October, 04, 2006 № 1301 "About approval of the State Hydrometeorological Fund and State Climate Inventory". On the basis of Presidential Decree №168 from April 12, 2013 "About some measures to optimize the system of state bodies and other state organizations, as well as the number of their employees," Resolution of the Council of Ministers №544 from June 26, 2013 "On some measures of the implementation of the Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus from April 12, 2013 №168 », orders of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus № 329-OD from 09/26/2013 and 369-OD from10/30/2013. "About the reorganization of certain state institutions subordinated to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in the field of hydro-meteorological activities" in public establishments of the Ministry of Environment was carried out in 2013-2014 to optimize the structure and reduction of the staff number, which touched the ground observation network. As a result of the optimization the next points were carried out: - the reduction of 4 observation points (MS Luban, VC Kolodishchi, MS Chechersk, MS Lelchitsy); - the reduction of 26 hydro-meteorological points; - the reduction in observation programs; - the translation of the 5-term observation without night shifts was carried out on 10 points surface meteorological. These reduction of the network measures worsened providing the consumers with the necessary hydrometeorological information, area lighting at night. It should be noted that the reduction did not affect stations and points involved in the international exchange of information. In 2015, the system of collection and transfer of hydrometeorological information should be improved and it is firstly necessary to intensify the process of translation surface meteorological observation points (without night shifts) for automatic observation production, information collection and transmission to the center of the collection to restore an 8-term regime of observations. Round-the-clock meteorological observations in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, the continuous monitoring of dangerous and adverse weather phenomena and the transmission of information are carried out by the following stations: - Vitebsk region – Verhnedvinsk, Vitebsk, Lyntupy, Orsha, Polotsk, Sharkovshchina; - Minsk region - Berezino, Borisov, Volozhin, MairinaGorka, Minsk, Slutsk, 207 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation - Grodno region - Volkovysk, Grodno, Lida, Novogrudok, Oshmjany, Shchuchin; - Mogilev - Bobruisk, Gorky, Kostyukovichi, Mogilev, Mstislavl, Slavgorod; - Brest - Baranovichi, Brest, Vysokoe, Pinsk, Polesskaya; - Gomel region - Vasilevichi, Gomel, Zhitkovichi, Zhlobin, Mozyr, Oktyabr. Observational data of the network stations are the basis for the climate handbooks used for various scientific and applied problems, including estimates for climate change. The state network of meteorological observations of the Republic of Belarus is a part of the WMO Global Observing System and is the main source of hydrometeorological information for industries, preparation of meteorological forecasts, warnings of severe weather. The composition of the state network of meteorological observations and the observation volume is determined in accordance with the requirements of the Convention and the WMO Technical Regulations. Belarus' participation in the global observing system is to ensure the stable operation of ground meteorological observation network, observational data from satellites and their processing in order to exchange information and prepare analyzes of weather forecasts and warnings of the relevant programs of the World Meteorological Organization and the environmental programs of other international organizations. Global Observing System also provides observational data for research purposes in support of other programs of the World Meteorological Organization or, according to the agreements with the Organization, of other international organizations. The Global network stations are a part of regional and the national networks, according to the WMO Manual on the Global Observing System (WMO Guide number 488, 2010 edition, updated in 2012). Participation in the Global Observing System and the information exchange enables the Republic of Belarus to use the data of global, regional and mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. In order of implementation of the agreements provisions concluded by the State Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Belarus and the national hydrometeorological services of neighboring countries, a program of operational hydrometeorological information exchange with hydrometeorological services in Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia. Poland is developed and implemented. The current density of meteorological observations (1 point to 3.9 thousand sq. km) meets the requirements of WMO to achieve an objective coverage of the country hydrometeorological parameters and characteristics (except for the registration of local phenomena and the number of heavy rainfall). 208 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation In Belarus, 31 meteorological stations are a part of the Regional Synoptic Network VI-th WMO Region (Europe), 10 weather stations are included in the Global Synoptic Network (Russia). The Global Climate Observing System WMO is a global support network consisting of about 1000 selected the world's surface observing stations for daily monitoring of global and large-scale climate variability. In Belarus, a meteorological station (AS Vasilevichi) is included in the GCOS. Each country creates a network of climate stations on its territory that are a part of a regional support network WMO climate - (RBCN). In Belarus, 12 stations are included in the network RBCN (VI-th region WMO). With the help of the Global Telecommunication System on these 12 stations SE "RSMC" is transmitted to the World Data Center Monthly until the 5th Moscow Summary "Climate - Synoptic" for the international climate data exchange containing monthly values of air temperature, precipitation, extreme values meteorological parameters over the last month, the monthly rate of air temperature, precipitation. Table 8.6 provides a list of meteorological state network centers of hydrometeorological observations of the Republic of Belarus, members of the global observing system for climate. 209 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation Table 8.6 – List of meteorological state network centers of hydrometeorological observations of the Republic of Belarus, members of the global observing system for climate N 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 310 311 Meteorological observation Points 2 Verhnedvinsk Sharkovshchina Lyntupy Polotsk Dokshitsy Lepel Vitebsk Senno Borisov Orsha Gorky Grodno Lida Minsk Berezino MairinaGorka Mogilev Klichev Slavgorod Kostyukovichi Baranovichi Slutsk Bobruisk Zhlobin Brest Pinsk Zhitkovichy Mozyr Vasilevichy Gomel Bragin Total Global Regional Russian GCOS RBCN 3 + 4 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 31 5 + 6 7 + + + + + + + + + + 10 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 1 12 + 10 Note: Column 3 - global needs; Count 4 - regional needs; Count 5 - Regional Basic Synoptic Network (Russia); Count 6 - Global Climate Observing System (GCOS); Count 7 - Regional Basic Climate Network (RBCN). Upper-air stations carried out atmosphere vertical sounding with radioprobes, which give systematic data on pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction up to a height of 30 km. Currently, there are two upper-air stations in the State Hydro-meteorological Service of the Republic of Belarus, in Gomel and Brest. However, the presence of only two upper-air stations 210 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation cannot fully provide coverage data of vertical sounding of the atmosphere in the Republic of Belarus. At present, the construction of a new complex in the upper-air Uruchcha, near Minsk has already started. Actinometric measurements are carried out at 11 meteorological stations: continuous recording in Minsk, term observation at Vasilevichi and Polesskaya, measurement of daily sums of solar radiation - at 10 observation points, warm-balance at Polesskaya. A gradual actinometric network rearmament is being produced with new devices. The total number of actinometric points is enough for objective coverage of the country Agro-meteorological observations are carried out at 45 observation points, including 6 specialized stations. These agro-meteorological observations are used to assess the conditions of growth and crop yield formation in a changing climate. There are 97 rivers and 10 lakes hydrological stations of the state network of meteorological observations on the territory of the Republic of Belarus (Table 8.7). Table 8.7 - Information on the current hydrological stations (HS) On the rivers, canals On the lakes, reservoirs HS-1 85 (drain) LHS -1 8 HS -2 9 (level) LHS -2 2 HS -3 3 (level) Total 97 Total 10 Seventy-six hydrological stations (73-river, 5-lake) are informational, 27 hydrological stations (21-river, 6-lake) refer to the reference. In accordance with the recommended WMO assessment required number of hydrological stations on the territory of Belarus on area of 207.6 thousand. km2 should be 111 drain posts counting 1 post on the 1875 km2. Currently, Belarus is 1 post in the 2242 km2, only 85 drain posts. In recent years, new technologies are introduced to the meteorological observations. The state network of meteorological observations retooled with new automatic sensors and automated weather systems MAWS of the Finnish firm "Vaisala" and Belarusian production of "Peleng". Modern Doppler weather radar and upper-air complexes DIGICORA are introduced; improving existing methods of weather forecasts. In the Republic of Belarus the development program of the State Hydro-meteorological Service was adopted for 2011-2015. It was approved by the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Republic of Belarus, aimed at the introduction of new devices and technologies, improving numerical weather prediction and dissemination of information to consumers. By the decision of the Board of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection from 12/20/2014 № 120-P the development 211 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Research and systematic observation strategy of hydro-meteorological activity and activity in the field of environmental monitoring of the Republic of Belarus for the period until 2030 was approved. The Strategy provides further implementation of advanced technologies in the public observation network. In general, there is now a network of State meteorological observations that meets the requirements of WMO – representation, continuity, reliability, uniformity and comparability of the results of observations and allows an objective assessment of climate change and the impact of these changes on weather-dependent sectors of the economy. 212 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change 9 EDUCATION, TRAINING AND PUBLIC AWARENESSON CLIMATE CHANGE 9.1 General Policy of Education, Trainingand Public Awareness The state policy in the field of climate protection is regulated by a number of regulatory legal acts of the Republic of Belarus. Therefore, the state policy of the Republic of Belarus in the sphere of education is based on the principles, and one of them is the principle of the ecological education, which is set out in Article I of the Law of the Republic of Belarus «On Education». Law of the Republic of Belarus№1982-XIIdated 26.11.1992 (Ed. on 22.12.2011, as amended on 26.10.2012) "On Environmental Protection" includes chapter 7 "Protection of the Ozone Layer. Managing the Impacts on Climate", which sets out regulations to ensure the protection of the ozone layer, the responsibilities of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs engaged in economic and other activities related to the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, as well as rules defining a common approach to the development of prevention activities against harmful effects on the climate. Article 23 of the Law of the Republic of Belarus№93-3dated 09.01.2006 (ed. on 12.12.2012) "On Hydrometeorological Activity" provides maintenance of the State Climate Inventory. Article 27 of the Act is devoted to international cooperation in the field of hydrometeorological activities. In 2006, the Coordination Council on Education for Sustainable Development under the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus was created.Environmental education, training and public awareness were separately included in the National Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020, subparagraph 6.2.4. Decree of the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus№16 dated 24.05.2011 approved a program of continuous education of children and youth in the Republic of Belarus for the period of 2012-2015, which takes into account proposals of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection (hereinafter - the Ministry of Natural Resources) to hold annual gatherings of young ecologists, as well as contests to collect waste paper and other raw materials and wastes or batteries for recycling. Pursuant to the Resolution of the Council of Ministers№1145 as of 05.09.2006, (ed. on 06.26.2013) the State Commission on Climate Change was created which functioned until recently. Its main function was to coordinate the activities between central government bodies 213 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change and other state organizations subordinate to the Government of the Republic of Belarus, regional executive committees, Minsk City Executive Committee and other organizations responsible for the fulfillment of the obligations arising from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter - the Framework Convention) and the Kyoto Protocol annexed to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter - Kyoto Protocol), aimed at stabilizing the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and the government of the Republic of Belarus on the participation in the official bodies of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, as well as in the international cooperation on climate change; strategy development for negotiations on climate change; consideration of draft regulations to implement the provisions of the Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, etc. Resolution of the Council of Ministers №676 as of 12.07.2014 ceased the force of Resolution of the Council of Ministers №1145 dated 05.09.2006. Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus №1117 dated 04.08.2008 (ed. on 06.04.2012)approved the National Program of measures to mitigate the effects of climate change for 2008-2012, aimed at reducing greenhouse gases emissions and increasing greenhouse gases absorption by sinks through drawing up the program of synergic measures for various sectors of the national economy. Implementation of this program would allow, among other measures implemented,to improve the collection and analysis of information on climate change, anthropogenic causes and sources of these changes through the creation of automated information systems. The Law of the Republic of Belarus№1982-XII“On Environmental Protection”dated 26.11.1992 (hereinafter - the Law) includes Chapter 13 "Education, studies and research in the field of environmental protection", which, in addition to these three positions, establishes requirements to the level of knowledge of employees whose activities are related to natural resource use and environmental impact. Article 75 “Education in the field of environmental protection and management”, in particular, states that the education of citizens in the field of environmental protection and natural resources is provided by the inclusion of educational programs giving the basic knowledge in the field of environmental protection and nature in the teaching program and documentation. The requirements for employees whose work involves the use of natural resources and environmental impact are prescribed in Article 76 of the Law. In accordance with this article employeeswhose work involves the use of natural resources and environmental impact are required to have the necessary knowledge in the field of environmental protection, 214 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change environmental management and improve it regularly. During the appointment of the officers and specialists, their certification and recertification, the fact that they have the necessary knowledge in the field of environmental protectionshould be taken into account. Provisions relating to education in the field of environmental protection are contained in Article 77 of the Law, according to which the purpose of formation of ecological culture of citizens, educating their respect for nature education is carried out in the area of environmental protection through the dissemination of environmental information, including information on environmental safety, as well as the knowledge on the composition of environmental information, the procedure of its formation, distribution and presentation to the environment protection subjects. Education in the field of environmental protection, including the process of informing citizens about the legislation of the Republic of Belarus on the Environment is organized by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and its territorial bodies, central government bodies, local authorities and government, public associations, media, as well as health care institutions, museums, libraries and other cultural institutions, environmental agencies, organizations, sport and tourism, other legal entities. Until recently, much of the activity of the Ministry of Environment in the field of climate protection was carried out by the Department of Hydrometeorology (from 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2013) and the Management of hydro-meteorological activities (1 July 2013 - 31 December 2014). On January 1, 2015 in connection with the optimization of the structure of the Ministry of Environment, these functions were transferred to the Management of regulatory impacts on air and water resources. In Article 2 of Paragraph 1.7. of the Code of the Republic of Belarus №243-3dated 13.01.2011 “Code of Education of the Republic of Belarus” theenvironmental orientation is declared as one of the principles of the state policy in the sphere of education. Article 18 of the same Code stipulates that one of theeducation objectives in the educational system is the formation of moral, aesthetic and ecological culture, and one of the main components of education is the environmental education aimed at developing in students the value-conscious relation to nature (paragraphs 2.3 and 5.10 respectively). In accordance with paragraph 8 of Chapter 1 of the Decree of the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus№125 dated 14.12.2006 “On theApproval of the Concept of Lifelong Education forChildren and Youth in the Republic of Belarus" one of the key components of education is the environmental education aimed at the formation of the value-conscious relation to nature. In accordance with paragraphs 40-44 of Chapter 4 of the above-mentioned decree 215 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change theeducation of ecological culture in personality is determined by the value of the universal nature of man and society and includes knowledge of the components and their relationships in the system "man - society - nature", as well as moral and aesthetic attitude to nature. 9.2 Primary, Secondary and Higher Education Presidential Decree of the Republic of Belarus№3, “Economy and Thrift - the Main Factors of Economic Security of the State" dated 14.06.2007noted that over the past decade an effective and dynamic economy was created in the country, which is focused on the steady growth of well-being and quality of life of its citizens, protection of their material, social and cultural interests. Consistently a policy of innovative development of the country is implemented. However, the work on commercializing the renewable energy sources like wood, water, wind, underground heat, solar energy and others is being performed not to a high standard. In this regard, the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus has set short-termed goals to develop the training activities, courses and programson the economy and thrift in institutions providing general secondary education. The goals are also aimed at taking actions to improve system of training and advanced training in the field of energy and resources by other state bodies. Pre-school education Students of the institutions providing pre-school education should acquire basic knowledge about the nature and the relationship between man and the natural environment.In preschool establishments of the Republic of Belarus, environmental education is based on the updated National Program of Education and Training “Praleska”, one of the most important sections of which is dedicated to environmental education of children. General secondary, vocational and specialized secondary education Studentswho are on stage I of their general secondary, vocational and specialized secondary educationaccumulate and develop knowledge about the world; scientific and cognitive, emotional and moral attitude to the environmentis formed. Stage II of general secondary education presupposes the use of students’ knowledge of ecological character, as well as the formation of the experience of social interaction and 216 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change responsible attitude to the environment in all activities. Considerable part of work in the school system and school education which regards to the education and informing on climate change and its impacts in the countryis carried out in the framework of SPARE (project "Education for Sustainable Energy in Belarus: The program SPARE - school program on the use of resources and energy at school and non-formal educational establishments". The idea of the program is to move from a discussion of global issues to actions which will be performed by pupils, their families and communities. The initiator of SPARE is the Norwegian Society for the Conservation of Nature.Since 2006 Norwegian partners have been carrying out SPARE program in Belarus receiving a positive result.Since 2007, the SPARE project has been carried out at a high national level with the support from the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection, the Department of Energy. Energy and natural resources saving activities generated great interest of teachers, students, representatives of school administration, who took part in them. Currently, thepartners of project are the Educational Institution "National Center for Environment and Local History", International Public Association "Ecoproject" “Partnership” (NGO"Ekopartnerstvo") Center for Environmental Solutions and the educational establishment"International Sakharov Environmental University". The project SPARE involves teachers, students, schools, gymnasiums, schools, institutions, non-formal environmental education (more than 400 educational institutions), as well as parents of students in all regions of the country. One of the important conditions of the SPARE project in Belarus should be the active participation of voluntary associations and the media (both national, regional, and local) in this program. More detailed information about the project can be found in section "The involvement of the public and non-governmental organizations". In accordance with Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus of July 17, 2008 №15 “On Some Issues of General Secondary Education” approaches to organization of ecological education in the general secondary education system have been changed. According to this decree school subjects are studied at a base level, which excludes the possibility of creation the general educational establishments and specialty classes of ecological orientation (the Decree became void after the Presidential Decree №6 dated 27.06.2011 came into force). The problems of the student ecological culture formation were addressed through the integration of knowledge about nature, society and human beings into the list of the school subjects as well as the introduction of new topics and sections in the structure of the academic 217 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change scientific subjects, which will deepen and extend certain aspects of environmental education. During stage III of secondary education in the institutions providing vocational and specialized secondary education, systematization of knowledge about nature is being formed. During the training of specialists of all categories, regardless of their future profession environmental disciplines is counted as an essential part of the educational system. In the educational standards of secondary special education requirements for the level of knowledge and skills of graduates in the field of environmental protection are being developed for each specialty. "Green Schools" program as the national environmental education project was approved by the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus. It is included in the list of electives for Belarusian students. The aim of the "Green Schools" program is to create a network of schools and afterschool educational institutions catering for the ecological education of schoolchildren and demonstrating practical steps in environment and environmental protection. Actual materials of the "Green Schools"program can be found on the website "Belarusian Pedagogical Society". In 2013/2014 the Department of Energy Efficiency of the State Committee on Standardization of the Republic of Belarus together with the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus organized VII Republican contest of projects on economy and thrift "Energomarafon 2013", which was attended by students and teachers, as well as pre-school educational institutions, general secondary, vocational, secondary special education and further education. One of the distinguishing features of "Energomarafon 2013" was the possibility of the projects to participate in the international competition "Energy and Environment" in the framework of international educational project SPARE and the worldwide UN decade "Education for Sustainable Development" with the support of the Norwegian Society for the Conservation of Nature and the European Network of Sustainable Energy INFORSE Europe. "Energomarafon" was launched in 2008. The main aim of the competition is to develop a culture of consumption among students, as well as identifying and disseminating best practices of educational institutions to establish a system of work in the field of energy conservation. The competition was held as part of the implementation of the Presidential Decree № 3 of the Republic of Belarus dated 14.06.2007 "Economy and Thrift –Main Factors of Economic Security of the State" and was aimed at raising public awareness of energy conservation and energy efficiency. 218 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change An Information Centre on Sustainable Development was created in Gomel;the Centreorganizes a large amount of work on education and training in the field of energy conservation and efficiency. Activities are carried out both at secondary and special schools, as well as at universities. Higher education During the preparation of this section of the National Communication information requests concerning the environmental disciplines or events, including the disciplines on climate protection which are taught to students, as well as the number of students, including the number of foreign students who study ecological disciplines were sent to all higher education institutions (hereinafter - Universities). Analysis of the information showed that in addition to individual academic disciplines taught at universities, change issues and climate protection are integrated into the majority of environmental disciplines of a general nature. Educational system of the Republic makes a significant contribution into the teaching of foreign students. As of 08/01/20131,894 foreign students get their education in Belarus studying subjects related to environmental issues and climate change. Among them, the citizens of 26 countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, China, Korea, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Mali, Morocco, Moldova, Nepal, Nigeria, Peru, Syria, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Turkmenistan, Russia) are represented. On their return, foreign graduates and postgraduates, who got their education in Belarus become specialists who determine public policy in their countries in the field of climate protection.For more information about the number of students, including foreign students, studying environmental disciplines, as well as disciplines relating to climate protection see Table 9.1. 219 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change Table - 9.1 Information on the number of students of higher educational institutions of the Republic of Belarus, including foreign students, studying environmental discipline, as well as disciplines relating to climate protection № п/п 1 1. Name of the higher educational institution 2 Belarusian State Economic University (Management Faculty) The total number of students studying environmental disciplines, including disciplines relating to climate protection 3 Number of foreign students, studying environmental discipline, as well as disciplines relating to climate protection 4 7799 84 2. Gomel State University named after Francis Skorina 1191 48 3. BrestStateUniversitynamedafterA.S. Pushkin 390 2 2363 23 1686 68 1750 40 1148 - 362 - 880 43 10. 11. 12. Belarusian State University of Agricultural Technology Brest State Technical University Belarusian Trade and Economics University of Consumer Cooperatives Minsk Institute of Management Gomel Engineering Institute, Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus VitebskStateUniversitynamedafterP.M. Masherov Polessky State University Command and Engineering Institute Belarusian National Technical University 13. Belarusian State University of Culture and Arts 5384 14. Minsk State Higher Radio Technical College GomelStateTechnicalUniversitynamedafterP.O. Sukhoy Belarusian State Technological University Baranovichi State University Hrodna State University Belarusian State Academy of Arts Grodno State Agrarian University MozyrStatePedagogicalUniversitynamedafterI.P. Shamyakin Belarusian State Academy of Music Mogilev Higher College of Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus 150 1117 Notallocated from thetotal number of students - 2258 105 10993 2300 850 1375 593 180 100 4 35 - 1770 45 820 - 95 - 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 220 319 110 30682 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change 24. nternational State University named after A.D. Sakharov 48 25. Military Academy of Belarus 600 Total: 75916 Not allocated from the total number of students 1894 Institutions providing higher education, occupy a special place in the system of environmental education. Mandatory environmental training in higher education is carried out primarily on the basis of the course "Fundamentals of Ecology". In addition, the nonenvironmental specialties read courses such as "Radiation Protection", "Environmental Security", "Ecology and Environmental |Management", "Environmental Monitoring" and others. A number of special disciplines of environmental profile are introduced in the curricula of agricultural and forestry specialties. Legal aspects of nature are taughtat legal professions schools, as well as according to specialties that are subject to management training. Curricula of higher education institutions include subjects related to environmental issues and climate change.For example, at the educational establishment (hereinafter - EE) "Belarusian State University" within the specialty "Geography" the disciplines "General Ecology", "Geoecology", "Hydrometeorology", "Geographic Information Systems", "Fundamentals of Ecology and Energy Conservation", "Meteorology and climatology”,“Introduction to hydrometeorology","Theory of the General Circulation of the Atmosphere","Weather Forecast","Physical meteorology","Environmental Law" are studied. The scope of course and diploma papers on the problems connected with climate change has significantly been expanded: students of the Geography Faculty are offered 150 topics for writing term papers and 21 topics for their dissertations. AtEE "Belarusian State Economic University" 19 environmental disciplines are taught, in 2013 7 environmental educationalevents were held, including on-site training-methodical seminar at Minsk TPP-3 on resource and energy conservation, improving environmental management of the enterprise. AtEE"Brest State University named after A.S. Pushkin 29 environmental disciplines are taught, 12 events on ecological orientation were held, including a quiz on World Meteorological Day and Student Conference "Geography and young people", at which 37 reports were made, including 4 reports dedicated to Climate Change. In 2011 at Vitebsk State University named after P.M. Masherov among 50 environmental disciplines the students studied, 21 of them relatedto the climate change. Educational course "Meteorology and climatology" (senior lecturer G.I. Pilovets) was developed and implemented at the Geography Faculty, which framework studies the issues of climate change. In accordance 221 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change with the curriculum courses "Nature of Belarusian Lakeland" and "Environmental Studies" for the "Primary Education" and "Pre-school Education. Speech Training" specialties a topic “Climate Formation”is being studied, the issues of climate change are being observed. In 2011the publication of textbooks for the course "Meteorology and climatology" (author G.I.Pilovets) was prepared andissued, which wasapproved by the Ministry of Education as a textbook for students of geographical faculties. Students have successfully defended their theses: "Assessing the Impact of Vitebsk Climate on Economic Activity and Human Health", "The Role of Urbanization in Changing theClimatic Characteristics (for example, the city of Vitebsk)"; the course paper "Modern Approaches to the Study of Climate Change. Climate of Vitebsk: Its Variation and Assessment of the Impact on Economic Activity and Human Health"(this work is assigned to Category Iat the Republican contest of scientific works of university students in 2011). At EE Gomel State University named after Francis Skorina the curriculum included 51 environmental disciplines, including "Meteorology and climatology", "Ecology of the basics of meteorology", "Forest fire science with the basics of radioecology." In order to study climate change topicsHrodna State University offers its students the following topics for their course papers: "Climatic Resources Forecast for the 21st Century", "Water, Hydro and Wind Power Resources of East-European Plains Under the Global Warming", "Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Efficiency in Belarus". In 2011, in the framework of supervisory hoursof student workshops, the following seminars were held at the Faculty of Biology and Ecologyand Ecological Movement: "The Consequences of Global Climate Change for the World and Belarus", "Climate Solutions", "Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol", "Energy and Sustainable Development""Climate "Earth Hour", "Energy Patrol". At Minsk State Linguistic University during school year of 2013/2014 a model of the third generationcurricula was introduced, according to which the problems of environmental protection and management, including climate change, will be studied within the framework of discipline "Health and Safety". Environmental management issues, the impact of climate change on agricultural production as the most environmentally dependant industry as well as the effects of changes, including the possibility of expanding the range of crops due to changes in the characteristics of the vegetation period is taught at Belarusian State Agrarian Technical University in the framework of "Technological bases crop", "The technology of crop production" and " The technology and technical support for production and processing of agricultural products" disciplines. 222 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change The scientists of Water supply and hydro melioration facultyof Belarusian State Technical University are directly involved in the climate change issues, the results of their research are presented in theses, articles, monographs. Faculty of Natural Sciences of EE "Mogilev State University named after A.A.Kuleshov"together with Mogilev Regional Department of NGO"Belarusian Geographical Society, magazine editorship “Mogilev Meridian”, Mogilev city NGO"Ecology - Science for Society, "Environmental Science and educational center of the faculty, student research laboratory of the department annually as part of the Day protect the Earth, the International Earth Day, International Day of Climate, World Environment Day, the Day of the protection of the oceans, the International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer is organizing a quiz, poster contests, production of leaflets and newspapers print wall. The courses “Environmental Economics", "Climate protection" are taught at the educational establishment "Belarusian State Technological University". The graduation works “Environmental and economic assessment of sustainable forest management, taking into account climatic factors”, “Environmental maturity as an element of sustainable forest and wildlife management climate protect” are defended. The impact on the climate caused by greenhouse gas emissions is reviewed in the diploma projects. The course "Energy efficient technologies" is included in the curriculum practically for all specialties at the Belarusian National Technical University. Master's thesis on "Investigation of possibilities of cogeneration plants for improvement and energy complex enterprises “Belneftekhim”,”Ecological and economic aspects of the use of liquid organic waste breeding complexes to generate energy in the Republic of Belarus” are defended. At the educational establishment “International State University named after A.D. Sakharov” at the Faculty of Environmental Monitoring specialists in the following specialties and specializations are trained: - Information Systems and Technologies (in ecology); - Information Systems and Technologies (in health care); - Energy efficiency and energy management; - Nuclear and radiation safety; - Environmental activities. 24 environmental disciplines, including “Meteorology and climatology”, “Monitoring of air pollution”, “The dynamics of the atmosphere” are taught at the educational establishment mentioned above. At the department of energy efficient technologies, students study 27 environmental disciplines, including “Environmental problems 223 of energy and energy efficiency”, Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change “Environmental Aspects of Energy and Energy Efficiency”, “Automated power management”, “Bioenergy”, “Management of renewable energy resources”, “Alternative and renewable energy sources”, “Production, transport and consumption of thermal energy”, ”Solar and geothermal energy”, ”Fundamentals of energy saving”, ”Energy Audit”, “Renewable Energy”. Scientific activity is carried out here, which introduces contribution to the solution of the climate change problems: International Belarusian-German project “Implementation of a new management concept for re-waterlogged peat land sustainable energy production from biomass (energy marshes)” and SPSR “Radiation, ecology and the technosphere”. Teaching & Research Centre for Ecology and Nature was created on the basis of the educational establishment mentioned above, the State Scientific Institution “Institute of Natural Resources and Ecology Problems of NASB” and the State Scientific Institution “Republican Scientific-Technical Center of remote environment diagnostics “ECO-World”. Main aims and tasks of the Center are: - carrying out the joint research within scientific and technical programs at various levels, as well as on-request of other organizations, including foreign ones; - participation in joint innovation projects, including in the field of education; - the research and teaching works reviewing activities; - assistance in organization and conducting training practices and internships for undergraduates, graduate students, faculty and staff of different establishments, as well as participation in employment of graduates; - joint planning and organization of educational process with the involvement of scientists and experts in the educational process at all levels; - academic and organizational assistance in improving the quality of students training, undergraduates, graduate students and professionals and increasing the qualification of the teaching staff, joint training of highly qualified personnel in postgraduate and doctoral studies; the organization and skills development and retraining of personnel in the field of ecology, nature and the use of renewable energy sources; - the organization and usage of laboratory facilities at the educational process of these establishments with the use of modern means of training; organization of joint scientific periodicals of environmental character and scientific conferences, seminars and meetings. As a result of realization of the tasks mentioned above the main goal is achieved: assurance of the integration of the preparation process of the specialists in the environmental field and research in the field of ecology, as well as solving of the environmental problems in science and education. The demonstration area is set up with installation samples, which are used for energy 224 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change production of renewable energy resources. This area is in an educational complex "Volma". This wind turbines, solar panels (gift Vorarlberg (Austria), micro-hydro and wood boiler bio raw materials (established with the financial support from Vorarlberg (Austria and mediation Institute named after Otto Hug (Munich, Germany). Demonstration area is the implementation of one of the most important areas of training future environmental specialists in the field of clean renewable energy resources and ensures: - studying , practicing and doing laboratory works on specialization "Energy efficient technologies and energy management"; - training of technical personnel of small and medium business, of energy and agriculture; - knowledge accumulation and systematization in the field of renewable energy sources (database), consulting the professionals and the public on these issues; - carrying out research work on the improvement and evaluation of the comparative efficacy of plants use in the terms of Republic of Belarus, which are working on the renewable energy sources 9.3 Campaigns of public information The main activity in the country in the field of environmental education, enlightenment and information is carried out by bodies of the Ministry of Environment. The main activities of the Ministry of Environment and its territorial bodies in the field of environmental education and awareness are - Informing the government, legal entities and citizens of the state of the environment and measures for its protection; - Organization promoting knowledge in the field of environmental protection and nature, formation of the ecological culture; - Involvement of citizens, public associations, operating in the field of environmental protection, educational and cultural institutions, religious organizations and others to the solving of environmental issues and environmental management. The basis of state guarantees of the Republic of Belarus in the system of environmental education and enlightenment for the formation of ecological culture in society is government funding. For the implementation of the framework for environmental education and enlightenment, awareness of the environment and the measures taken for its protection and improvement, providing propaganda of ecological knowledge of the National Environmental Fund (in 2012 - the national budget) has been allocated: in 2010 . - 950 million. rubles, in 2011 225 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change 1,102.10 million. rubles, in 2012 - 1334.0 mln. rubles (Figure 9.1). 1200 the sum, mln of rubles 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Brest region 2010 104,2 2011 177,4 2012 440 Vitebsk region 214,4 342,6 1100 Gomel region 438,3 683,6 700 Grodno region 83,5 70 100 Minsk region 61 91,3 500 Mogilev region 59,5 188,9 300 Minsk region 254 342,6 320 Picture 9.1. Dynamics of allocating funds to regions and Minsk It should be noted that in 2012, compared with 2010, the amount of funds allocated for activities on environmental education and training from the national and regional environmental funds (budgets), increased by 55% (Pic. 8.1.). Significantly, increased funding for environmental activities in Vitebsk (80%) and Minsk regions (87%). However, it should also be noted that because of the significant changes in the financial sector of the republic in 2010, by increasing the amount of appropriated funds decreased possibility of implementing measures. Analysis of the use of the National Environmental Fund (budget) for the organization of public education and enlightenment in 2010-2012 showed that most of the funds were used for the organization and conducting of the National Environmental Forum, competitions, seminars, conferences (in 2010 - 39 %, in 2011 - 36%, in 2012 - 53%), edition of the magazine "Rodnayapryroda" and application "ecological environment" to "NarodnayaGazeta" (2010 27%, in 2011 - 27% in 2012 year - 23%). Significantly increased funding for the production of video and television programs (in 2010 - 4%, in 2011 - 19%, in 2012 - 21%), which is associated with the release cycle for Belarusian TV programs on environmental topics "The Zone of the Comfort" since 2011. Ministry and its territorial bodies’ outreach includes work with the media (hereinafter the media), the release of social environmental advertising, publication of environmental literature, organizing presentations and meetings in groups, educational institutions, conducting "direct phone lines" and various outreach campaigns aimed at solving environmental problems. For improvement it is necessary to cover all target populations in this area, using the 226 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change maximum number of information channels. In order to ensure rapid reporting of data to the public about the state of the environment and natural resource management focuses on working with news agencies (BelTA, Interfax, BelaPAN). Taking into account that the main source of information for all groups of the population is still print media, in 2010-2012. Ministry of Natural Resources continued to publish departmental magazine "Rodnayapryroda" and the special environmental edition of "Ecological environment" together with the "NarodnayaGazeta". In addition, managers and specialists of structural units of the Ministry of Environment in 2011 organized more than 300 publications in print media, on the central television and radio. In order to improve the work carried out by the Ministry of Environment in this direction, in 2011 at the First National TV Channel the cycle of 10 educational outreach TV programs "The zone of comfort" was organized, covering topical issues of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources. In the future, this work was continued and intensified. Ministry of Environment has a close cooperation with JSC "Belarusian radio". Materials about the state of the environment and the rational use of natural resources is constantly heard in the program "Eco-Monitoring", "Radiofact", "Post Factum", "Topical microphone" etc., aired by the Belarusian Radio. An integral part of a successful information campaign is organizing of press events (press conferences, briefings, "round tables", press tours) on topical issues in the field of environment and natural resources. In order to enable citizens, legal entities and individual entrepreneurs to address with the issues related to environmental protection and rational use of natural resources, to the representatives of the Ministry of Environment and its territorial bodies "direct phone line" are carried out, that allows "two-way communication" with the public, and help to determine what questions to environmental need to be clarified. For solving environmental education issues, especially enlightenment for young people, as well as environmental education in rural areas Ministry of Natural Resources is working to promote interaction with religious organizations. For example, in May 2011, the Ministry of Environment in collaboration with the State educational establishment "Institute of Theology of Saints Cyril and Methodius", Belarusian State University held a scientific-practical conference on the role of Christianity and education in environmental issues "In the chargeof creation. Culture and education are in the face of environmental challenges". For the environmental education of citizens printed materials on environmental topics in the Diocese for reading in church sermons and Sunday schools are transmitted by Regional Committee on Natural 227 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change Resources and Environmental Protection. The public Environmental Coordination Council (hereinafter – CECO) was organizedand is still operating at the Ministry of Natural Resources, which members include representatives of the most active non-governmental environmental associations (organizations) of the Republic. The main tasks of the Council are: - coordination of the Ministry of Environment interactions and associations operating in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources; - to provide assistance to the Ministry of Natural Resources in carrying out the unified state policy in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources; - development and implementation of government programs, action plans and other documents in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources - creating a system of education andenlightenment in the field of environmental protection; - development of eco-tourism; - review and discussion of draft laws and regulations in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources; - preparation of amendment proposals to the regulations in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources; - research, compilation and dissemination of international experience in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources At the meetings CECO discussed the hottest environmental issues, including issues related to climate protection. For example, the draft law on the climate wasdiscussed with the members of the public. The reports on the participation of official delegations of the Republic of Belarus in world climate summit are regularly submitted to CECO panel sessions. One of the most popular ways of information distribution is the Internet. A large amount of websites are available in Belarus, both national and international, and other countries websites, covering topics of change and climate protection. 9.4 A list of websites related to climate issues Sites of intergovernmental organizations and official bodies www.unfccc.int - Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The documents and decisions archive of the Convention; news, data on greenhouse gas emissions, official government reports. www.ipcc.ch - IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Officialreports, 228 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change identifying issues of climate change and its causes, forcasts, impact assessment on the environment. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/index_en.htm - Conservation website of the European Commission. A wide range of materials on environmental issues and decisions of the European Commission, including the EU's position on a new international agreement - "Copenhagen 2009". http://ru.cop15.dk - a special web-site for coverage of the negotiations on a new international agreement on climate change - "Copenhagen 2009", and working in the Russian language http://greenlogic.by/green.html - United Nations Development Programme in Belarus, a section devoted to establishing a network of "Green Schools" in Belarus,www.iea.org International Energy Agency. Information on energy efficiency, renewable energy and others. www.unep.ch - United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Educational materials on climate change and the impact on ecosystems.Library of publications. www.undp.org - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Information, education and training materials, including climate change. www.who.int - The World Health Organization (WHO). Educational and informational materials, including the impact of climate change on human health.www.wmo.ch - World Meteorological Organization. A wide range of materials and data on climate change, news, weather, links to recent publications. Sites of scientific and non-governmental organizations http://greenpack.rec.org/ru - interactive "Green Book", educational material for students and teachers with a clear statement of the essence of the problem of climate change and ways of solving it, teaching materials for the lessons www.climatenetwork.org (CAN International), www.climnet.org (CAN Europe) - a coalition of environmental NGOs - Climate Action Network, working actively in the sessions of the UNFCCC, prepare positions and proposals for negotiating sessions. Edition of the ECOnewspaper,published daily during the negotiations and critically evaluate their progress www.infoclimate.org - (network of Climate Action Network Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (CAN EECCA), bringing together non-governmental organizations from 10 countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. The network has two centers that coordinate activities in the region, one of them is a partnership "Green Network" www.nature.com/climate- the web-site of the «Nature» magazine, free access to essays and articles on the climate information and opinions 229 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change www.oxfam.org - a web-site of international organization Oxfam International, projects intended on combating poverty and address critical social issues; news, publications on a wide range of social and environmental issues, including climate change www.panda.org/climate - World Wildlife Fund - WWF International, Climate Programme. Information about climatic events, the impact of climate change on ecosystems, www.pewclimate.org - Pew Center on Global Climate Change brings together businessmen, politicians and scientists concerned about climate change. Materials on climate policy, news, publications www.pointcarbon.com - factual information and analysis on the current state of the global carbon market. Newsfeed, a library of publications www.realclimate.org - the world's leading site for scientific debates on climate change (supported by scientists Goddard Institute of NASA, USA). News, discussions of any controversial issues but political. Questions and Answers www.wri.org/climate - World Resource Institute (WRI). Information on climate change and the ways of its solution, analytical and reference materials www.wwf.ru - World Wildlife Fund - WWF Russia. Information on a wide range of issues of nature protection, including climate events, the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Extensive electronic library of publications in Russian, and in particular climate change. Sites of the Belarusian governmental and non-governmental organizations http://minpriroda.gov.by – website of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Belarus. One of the themes is global climate change and promotion of measures to implement the provisions of the Republic of Belarus to the UNFCCC, www.pogoda.by – Official information of the National Hydrometeorological, www.un.by - The official website of the UN Office in the Republic of Belarus www.greenbelarus.info - ecological association "Green Network" http://www.ecoproject.by/- NGO "Ekoproektpartnerstvo" http://www.ecoidea.by/ - Establishment of the "Center for Environmental decisions" www.nsmos.by/ - the site of the National Environmental Monitoring System of the Republic of Belarus (NEMS) www.cricuwr.by- thesite RUE "Central Research Institute of Integrated Water Resources Management" www.ecoinfo.by/ - the site of RUE "BelSRC "Ecology" www.aarhusbel.com - the site of the Aarhus Centre of the Republic of Belarus, 230 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change http://www.ohranaprirody.grodno.by/aarhus/ - Aarhus Centre in Grodno, www.soz.minpriroda.gov.by – the site of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus on the implementation of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Republic of Belarus, http://rad.org.by –the site of the "National Centre of Radiation Control and Environmental Monitoring" http://hbc.bas-net.by/bcb/ - the siteof "Botanical Collections of Belarus" http://hbc.bas-net.by/plantae/ - the site of "Plants of Belarus" http://biosafety.org.by – the site of the National Biosafety Coordination Centre of the Republic of Belarus, http://ozone.bsu.by - the site of the National Research Ozone Center of Belarusian State University www.spareworld.org - an international website project SPARE, www.spare-belarus.by - School program of the resources and energy use, http://vk.com/spare_belarus - official group in the social network "VKontakte" www.facebook.com/pages/Spare-International - official group in the social network «Facebook», www.ptushki.org – the website NGO "APB BirdLife Belarus". This public association is the executor of the international project "Restoration of peat deposits and application of the concept of sustainable management in Belarus - reducing climate change for the benefit of the economy and biodiversity (Belarus-1)." The initiative is implemented by the British Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), Michael Sukkova Foundation (Germany) with the participation of the Government of the Republic of Belarus, the public organization "APB BirdLife Belarus" and the financial support of the Federal Republic of Germany through KfW bank in the framework of the International Climate Protection Initiative, http://wildlife.by - Publisher's website "Riftur" http://www.worldbank.org/ru/country/belarusThe World Bank in Belarus www.milieukontakt.nlMilieukontaktOost-Europa, http://www.iseu.by/ International Environmental University named after A.D. Sakharov. 9.5 Training programs (personnel training) The country carried out significant work in the field of training and retraining. Thus, State Educational Establishment "Republican center of training, further training and retraining in the field of environmental protection" of the Ministry of Environmentwas 231 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change created (hereinafter - the training center), which main objectives are: − Operational satisfaction of the needs in the professional development of executives and experts in the field of environmental protection and rational usage of natural resources, including hydro-meteorological activities, environmental certification and environmental audit; − Environmental education, enlightenment and providing the advocacy of ecological knowledge; − development of the international cooperation in the training of executives and experts area in the field of environmental protection and rational use of natural resources, including hydro-meteorological activities, environmental certification and environmental auditing.Слушателями указанного выше учреждения образования являются как специалисты территориальных органов Минприроды, так и руководящие работники отраслей экономики. Listeners of the above educational establishment are experts of territorial bodies of the Ministry of Environment as well as industry executives. At the training center in 2012 training courses on "Climate Change and the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions" were held. The lecture topics were "Activities of international organizations and companies in the management of climate impacts and adaptation to change it", "National Inventory System Greenhouse gas", "Conducting the State inventory of anthropogenic emissions from the sources and removals by absorbers of greenhouse gases ","Statutory regulation of climate change issues in the Republic of Belarus"," Technical statutory regulation acts in the field of estimating greenhouse gas emissions","System of international documents in the field of regulation impact on the climate. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol" and others. However, it should be noted that there are no lectures on climate protection in the permanent curriculum of the establishment. The basic information about Air Protection is a part of the general lectures. Subsequently, it is planned to introduce lectures on climate themes into the curriculum. Specialists of the Ministry of Environment undergo training abroad from time to time.Thus, the staff of the National Center of Radiation Control and Environmental Monitoringwithin the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency "Modernization and expansion of the radiation monitoring network of air" in the May-June 2013 were trained at the National Institute of Radiation Safety, Prague, Czech Republic. The operations and practical magazine for ecologists"Ecology at the enterprise" is published in the country. It is a magazine intended for the ecologists, executives, responsible for 232 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change the environmental policy, local government leaders, shaping environmental policies and controlling in the sphere of ecology, environmental and safetyengineers, managers and specialists of environmental laboratory services and enterprises, professionals responsible for the operation of environmental protection facilities, ventilation, water supply and sanitation. In 2012-2014 were published a lot of ecological articles: "Some aspects of the greenhouse gas emissions trading", "Conducting the State inventory of renewable energy sources in the Republic of Belarus: a review of the Statutory regulation base", "Economic mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol: international and national levels of regulation", "Some aspects of climate changes and energy conservation in the Republic of Belarus", "The potential development of the renewable energy in the Republic of Belarus", "Greenhouse gas emissions because of the municipal waste", "The policies and measures in the field of climate change." e) Academic and scientific centers. The climate database is being formed by the climate data management CliWare, the process on creation of databases and electronic account journals for income data in State HydrometeorologicalFund for technical media is carried out in the State Establishment "Republican Hydrometeorological Center", which provides training and distribution of annual reviews of the climatic characteristics and severe weather last year. RUE “BelSRC “Ecology” is a link in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus, which is responsible for environmental information and performs scientific support activities. The institution has good human resources, providing information activities, environmental monitoring, international cooperation in the field of environmental protection, the implementation of international environmental conventions and agreements, publishing. Among the information resources maintained by the RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology” automated information system "Inventories", the State Airinventory, Statewaste inventory, State fauna inventory of the Republic of Belarus, the State flora inventory Republic of Belarus, the State Register of the National System of observation points environmental monitoring, the Register of Protected Areas of the Republic of Belarus ", a list of specially protected natural areas of national and local significance of the Republic of Belarus", the storage Register, waste disposal and neutralization, Registry of the waste use,Database of obsolete pesticides and territories contaminated by them, the state inventory of anthropogenic emissions from sources and removals by absorbers of greenhouse gases, the state inventory of renewable energy sources. The department of international scientific cooperation RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology” and now the Center of international environmental conventions and agreements (hereinafter Center), prepares documentation for the commitments implementation by the Republic of Belarus on 233 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change international environmental conventions and agreements, in particular: the UN Framework Convention on climate change, the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Stockholm Convention on "Persistent Organic Pollutants", the Basel Convention on the Control of Cross-border Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, and other environmental conventions. The creation of the center was possible due to a joint project of the European Union and UNDP “The support of the environment and stable development of Belarus”, which executive agency was The Ministry of Environment. The Centre aims to promote the implementation of international environmental conventions, which member is Belarus, creates conditions for the formation of inter-regional and cross-border cooperation, information exchange and monitoring the implementation of obligations under environmental conventions, conducting an inventory and greenhouse gas emissionsaccounting, estimates the country's vulnerability to climate change, processes and provides all the necessary information to the general public. The Center of international environmental conventions and agreements also conducts researches and development in the field of climate change and adaptation of the national economy and population to these changes, conducts greenhouse gas inventory and inventory of renewable energy sources. The center staff participates in the international activities in the field of climate change. One of the most important international focuses of the center is to prepare annual reports on the national GHG inventory and National Communications of the Republic of Belarus for submission to the secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The Centre is actively involved in the drafting of legal, regulatory and policy documents of the Republic of Belarus in the field of climate. The role of the Centre in the assurance of obligation implementation of the Republic of Belaruson environmental conventions is to coordinate activities and synergies in the implementation of environmental conventions at the national level; improving the methodology of national reporting on environmental conventions; strengthening the participation of national experts in the events held on the implementation of conventions and agreements at the international level; preparation of analyzes possible with the assistance of grants and other financial resources for national and regional projects for the implementation of the conventions. Promising areas of research and development in the field of climate change isestablishing a scientific basis and critical limits for climate change, taking into account the nature of natural climate variability at different time scales in Belarus and the European Region; development of 234 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change climate-simulation models of the processes occurring in the natural and socio-economic systems to assess the impact of climate change,implementation of a climate change comprehensive monitoring by parallel measurements values of hydrometeorologicalmeasures and indicators, prospective (predicative) assessment of future climate that correspond to different scenarios of anthropogenic influence on the global climate, in cooperation with other countries, the appropriate methods development of comprehensive economic assessment of climate change impacts on individual sectors of the national economy. Among the information and communication services provided by RUE "Bel SRC" Ecology "is providing information on the subject of"National market carbon units: scientific analysis and development forecast", "Scientific and systematic- methodological basis of assessing the health risk due to climate change". Substantial publishing is carried out by the Establishment. The reference book "Information Resources of Ministry of Natural Resources' (annually) is published as well as the State report "About implementation of the environmental policy of the Republic of Belarus", annual report "Forecast of GHG emissions based on the Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus", annual publication "Analysis of the instruments of national carbon units market", monthly subscription scientific magazine "Green" Economy of the Republic of Belarus "(with NASB). The Aarhus Centre was created on the basis of RUE "Bel SRC" Ecology". Aarhus Centers serve as a link between the government and civil society. In this regard, the Aarhus Centre is receiving and reviewing applications from citizens and organizations on environmental issues and environmental management, collection, accumulation, storage and dissemination of environmental information, environmental information on-request of individuals and legal entities, educational events (performance reports , lectures, presentations), publications in the media, appearances on radio. Thus, the Aarhus Centre published a brochure on climate protection and focused on the youth audience and the media, as it is the media today are a major source of environmental information for the majority of citizens, it is largely depend on the media how people will treat the environment and it is the media determines the level of ecological culture in society. The first regional Aarhus Centre was established in the city of Grodno in November 2011. There is an e-library on the Aarhus Centre web-site, where you can find a lot of information and literature on the subject of climate. 235 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change 9.6 The Public and Non-Governmental Organizations Involvement As already mentioned above, to substantially enhance the public awareness and encourage the maximum public involvement in the decision-making process related to the environment, the Public Coordinating Ecological Council is functioning under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection. Members of the public participate in national and international conferences and seminars and discuss issues related to the climate change and national reporting under UN FCCC. Specifically, members of the public participated in the meeting with a group of international experts within the framework of their visit 6-12 February 2012 to the Republic of Belarus to review the Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus and made a number of comments on preparation of the National Communication subject to the commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The non-governmental associations (organizations) of the Republic of Belarus play an important role in training, education and awareness enhancement of the Belarusian general public in the sphere of the environmental protection and conservation of climate, in particular. In general, implementation of the international technical assistance in the environmental sphere helps promote these activities. For instance, the Public Association APB “Birdlife Belarus” jointly with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in the Republic of Belarus and Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus has implemented the ЕU/UNDP Project “Raising Environmental Awareness of the Youth through Establishment and Development of Green Schools in Belarus”. Since 2011, the Republic of Belarus has been implementing the EU/UNDP Project “Support to the Development of a Comprehensive Framework for International Environmental Cooperation in the Republic of Belarus”. The Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus provided support in implementing the “Green Schools” Program at the national level through the educational activities at all stages of the general secondary education and supplementary education for children and youth (learning in circles, optional courses “Wildlife of Belarus”, “Energy and Environment”, etc.). A joint Project of the Public Association APB “Birdlife Belarus”, Michael Zukkov Foundation (Germany) and British Royal Society for Protection of Birds (Great Britain) is being implemented with support of the UNDP in the Republic of Belarus, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection and Ministry of Forestry of the Republic of Belarus. The project is to develop and test the methodology for accounting GHG emissions from reclaimed and restored wetlands and also to offer a facility for CO2 certificate sale in the 236 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change voluntary carbon market. The Partnership of non-governmental organizations, experts and “Green Network” activists has arranged and held the following seminars and round tables in cooperation with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection and EU/UNDP Projects: - “Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture of the Republic of Belarus” (31.03.2011). The seminar set an objective to stimulate elaboration of sectoral programs and strategies in the sphere of prevention of impact on climate and adaptation to the climate change. The seminar’s topics of discussion covered current tendencies and problems of the climate change impact on the agricultural production, the agricultural sector impact on the climate change and mitigation of this impact, GHG inventory taking in this sector and adaptation of the agricultural sector to the climate change. The elaborated discussion-based recommendations were submitted to the responsible state administrative bodies. - “Implementation of Provisions of Article 6 of the UN FCCC in the Republic of Belarus (Education, Training, and Public Awareness”) (12.11.2011). The objective of the seminar was to discuss opportunities and prospects of implementation of UN FCCC Article 6 and amended the New Delhi Work Program in the Republic of Belarus and to define practical steps towards elaboration of the National Action Plan for implementation of provisions of Article 6. A Resolution containing expert recommendations was prepared during the seminar by the international experts, officials of state administrative bodies, members of the academic community and representatives of non-governmental organizations. - “National, Regional and International Carbon Market as a Tool to Implement the Strategy of Sustainable Low-Carbon Development” (20.04.2012). During the seminar, the international experts and business representatives discussed prospects of carbon financing in the Republic of Belarus and also experience of Russia and Ukraine. Since 2007, participating organizations of the “Green Network” Partnership have been annually arranging and implementing a package of educational events “School of Environmental Activist” the program of which contains a series of trainings and workshops to discuss the issues of the climate change and national and international climate policy, among others. Annually, about 60 students from all regions of Belarus attend the “School of Environmental Activist”. The experts of the “Green Network” Partnership and Agency “Center of Environmental Solutions” provided support in preparing and presenting lectures at the premises of the Academy of Management under the President of the Republic of Belarus for managers of territorial state administrative bodies. Since 2010, the “Green Network” Partnership experts have been actively participating in the activities of the Civil Society Forum of the EU “Eastern Partnership” Initiative. In 2012, the 237 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change “Green Network” representative coordinated activities of the Working Group “Environment, Climate Change and Energy Security” of the Civil Society Forum. In 2010 and 2013, upon an initiative of the “Green Network”, the Civil Society Forum adopted Resolutions concerning the climate policy and also implementation of the second period of the Kyoto Protocol commitments and elaboration of a new international climate agreement. Since 2013, the “Green Network” has been functioning as one of two coordinating centers of the Regional Network - Climate Action Network Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and is also involved in developing the regional strategy of the network memberorganizations, awareness-raising work and retraining NGO members in the sphere of international negotiations within the UN FCCC framework. The “Green Network” members participated in the following international studies: “Climate Change Performance Index”, “European Integration Index”, “Towards Good Environmental Governance” covering the issues of the climate policy, among others. Belarusian Non-Governmental Organizations – “Green Network” Environmental Partnership, Public Association “Ecodom”, Agency “Center for Environmental Solutions”, International Public Association “Ecoproject” Partnership”, Environmental Regional Public Association “Nerush” and Belarusian Red Cross Society annually run the awareness campaign aimed at prevention of burning dry vegetation and municipal solid waste. The campaign is run with the support of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection and Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus. The Agency “Center of Ecological Solutions” is actively involved in the public awareness raising and education in the field of energy and resources saving and climate protection. The Agency issues the Information Bulletin of the alternative energy and energy saving on a regular basis and established the Youth Ecological Center “Ecostart”. The topic of discussions and information materials: ”Climate Change - International Documents, Negotiations, Specifics of the Belarusian Situation, Climate Change and Everyday Life”. An event was held in the Maxim Gorky Central Children's Park in which the children participated in the drawing and drafts contests related to the climate conservation problem. International Public Association “Ecoproject” Partnership” is actively involved in the sphere of energy saving and climate change. The Project “Development of Intersectoral Cooperation in the Field of Water Resources Conservation, Waste Disposal and Energy Saving in Belarus” implemented the measures for energy saving in buildings and performed energy certification of buildings (first experience in the Republic of Belarus) based on which recommendations on introduction of energy certification at the state level in Belarus have been elaborated. 238 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change The above Association published the brochure entitled “It's Time Habits have been Changed” in which helpful advises are given how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during residential building operation, use of household electric appliances, transport and also in case of inefficient consumption of various types of products, in agriculture, livestock breeding and energy sector. A Family Calendar-Organizer for 2012 was issued which is a useful tool to efficiently organize and plan the family’s activities. The advices contained in the calendar offer simple methods aimed to reduce load on the nature. Simple advices emphasize the need to save natural resources by a modern family and seek to conserve the diversity of nature. This Association has conducted an awareness survey in three Belarusian cities related to the household energy saving. An awareness campaign related to the household energy saving was waged in three Belarusian pilot cities and questionnaires were distributed among the residents to obtain a feedback. The results of the questionnaire survey regarding the public awareness of the energy saving methods and its attitude to this problem are provided in the publication. The survey results were published in the form of a brochure which included the articles containing advices and photos of Zhodino, Osipovichy and Baranovichy residents which practically demonstrate their care for nature. The environmentally oriented non-governmental associations (organizations) are involved in running the “International Earth Hour” campaign. It is traditionally run on the last Saturday of March and call for the citizens, organizations, schools, local authorities and commercial agencies to switch off the light and other non-critical electrical appliances for one hour to stimulate the public interest to the climate change problem. Since 2010, the “Green Network” Partnership has been regularly conducting the international event “350” (it included horse riding for the boarding school inmates, vegetarian dinners, public lectures and other actions), and also the event “World Day without Car”. The events “No Litter” and “We Will Do It” are conducted twice a year during which the litter is collected in the forests and along rivers' banks. In 2013, the events “Climate, Remain!” were conducted with involvements of the well-known Belarusian creative teams (Plastic Theatre “InGest”, Folk Group “Kryvi” and others) and also “Week of Mobility” and “Global Power Shift”. The participating organizations of the “Green Network” Partnership - Minsk Bicycle Society, VeloGrodno and Foundation “Ecological Transport” actively participate in the activities to improve the bicycle infrastructure in Belarusian towns and cities for promoting cycling as an alternative to private vehicles. These organizations have helped significantly improve plans for development cycle lanes and parking lots in Minsk, Grodno and Mogilev. 239 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change The SPARE Project in Belarus is among the most popular educational environmental projects. The information about the Project progress is disseminated through the Annual Informal Education Festival. The Project annually arranges and holds numerous workshops and trainings for the teachers and students, and energy saving contests and festivals. The teachers are also assisted in elaborating educational materials, study guides and guidance manuals related to resources/energy saving and climate change. The Project released a series of cartoon films “Eco Thrill” produced by young Belarusian authors, artists and designers. The “Eco Thrill” series comprises 4 clips explaining why water, heat and power need to be saved in one’s own house and what may happen if this saving is neglected. 9.7 Participation in International Activity The Climate Summits were held over the reporting period in the following cities: Cancun (Mexico, 2010), Durban (RSA, 2011), Doha (Katar, 2012), Warsaw (Poland, 2013) and Lima (Peru, 2014). Official delegations (except 2014) and delegates from public ecological associations (non-governmental organizations) of the Republic of Belarus regularly participated in Climate Summits and the related events. Belarus’ representatives, for example, participated in the 17th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) in Durban, Republic of South Africa, 7th Meeting of the Parties to Kyoto Protocol and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 34th Session of the Subsidiary Body for Implementation, 34th Session of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advise, 14th Session of Special Working Group on Long-Term Measures of Cooperative Action under the Convention and on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol. The Director of the Hydrometeorology Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection delivered a report within the framework of the High-Level Segment in which he pointed out that the Republic of Belarus fully met its commitments under the UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol and persistently pursued the internal policy and implemented measures aimed to mitigate and adapt to climate change effects. In 2014, the Belarusian delegation headed by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Belarus Mr. Myasnikovich M.V. participated in the UN Climate Summit in New York, USA. At the summit, the delegation expressed the position of the Republic of Belarus on the matter of a 240 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change new climate agreement and informed the participants about the national contribution/measures to mitigate and adapt to the climate change effects. The Belarusian climate protection specialists have also participated in a number of international events over the reporting period: - International Conference “Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in CIS Countries”, 25-26 March 2010, Chisinau. Moldova (two reports and presentations); - Seminar on Greenhouse Gases Inventories, June 2010, Bonn, Germany; - Seminar on Revision of IPCC Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Inventories for Parties included in Annex 1 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2-5.09.2010, Bonn, Germany; - 4-th centralized review of National Greenhouse Gases Inventories, 5-12.09.2010, Bonn, Germany; - International Conference “Analysis and Prospects for Carbon Financing”, 11- 12.11.2010, Minsk (two reports and presentations); - Meeting of experts for identifying baseline emissions and baseline levels for implementation of the REDD-plus activities, 14-15.11.2011, Bonn, Germany; - Seminar on Low-Carbon Industry and Climate Change, 6-26.04.2012, Beijing, - Seminar on Development and Use of New Energy Resources, 6-30 May 2012, China; Beijing, China; - Regional Seminar “Territorial Approach to Climate Change“, 21-24.05.2012, Vinnitsa, Ukraine; - Seminar for officials responsible for the following Conventions: Convention on Biological Diversity, UN Convention to Combat Desertification and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 24-28.09.2012, Erevan, Armenia; - Seminar “Territorial Approach to Climate Change“, 13-14.11.2012, Baku, Azerbaijan; - Centralized Review of National Greenhouse Gases Inventories of the Republic of Kazakhstan, September 2012, Bonn, Germany; - Workshop “Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus on the Principles of “Green Economy”, 5 June 2012, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; - Seminar on Low-Carbon Development of the Economy of the Republic of Belarus, May 2012, Minsk, Republic of Belarus; - Seminar on the Clima East Policy Project “Support to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Russia and ENP EAST Countries”, 10-11 October 2013, Minsk, Republic of 241 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Education, training and public awarenesson climate change Belarus; - 2 Seminars in 2014 within the framework of the Project Clima East of the Program of the EU Eastern Partnership on GHG Emissions Monitoring, Reporting and Verification and also Arranging Legislative and Institutional Conditions in this Sphere; On GHG Emissions Modeling. The Specialists of the Center for International Environmental Conventions and Agreements (RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”) participated in the review of Greenhouse Gas Inventories and National Communications of other countries as international experts. A Meeting of the Task Force on Public Participation Decision-Making is to be held in February 2015 under the auspices of Aarhus Convention Secretariat to discuss primarily the issues of public participation in making decisions related to climate change. In the process of preparing this National Communication, its Draft was placed on the web-site of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection for public consultation and making comments and proposals, in addition, the public concerned was informed about discussions through direct e-mail. Public consultation has been held for 30 days and resulted in a number of comments and proposals from the public to be reviewed by the developers and the majority of them has been taken into consideration for improving the National Communication. On top of that, a number of verbal consultations has been held with the members of the public concerned having the most extensive expertise in the sphere of climate change and protection. 242 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus REFERENCES CHAPTER 2 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES RELEVANT TO GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS 1. Belarus in Figures: Statistical Handbook/ National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Belarus – Minsk, 2014. [Electronicresource]. http://www.belstat.gov.by/. Access date 10.02.2015 2. Statistical Yearbook, 2014 / National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Belarus – Minsk, 2014.-[Electronicresource]. http://www.belstat.gov.by/. 3. State of Environment of Belarus: Environmental Bulletin2013/ ed.Loginov V.F. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection /– Minsk, 2014 - 362 p.[Electronic resource].http://www.minpriroda.gov.by. 4. Overview of Climate Pattern and Hazardous Hydrometeorological Phenomena on the Territory of the Republic of Belarusin 2013. SI “Republican Hydrometeorological Center” - Mn.2014 – 53 p. 5. National Environment Monitoring System of the Republic of Belarus: Observation Results, 2013 Electronic resource/Under the general editorship of Kuzmin S.I., Savchenko V.V. – Minsk, RUE “Bel SRC “Ecology”. - 2014. – 308p. 6. Collection ‘State Land Cadastre of the Republic of Belarus” (as of 1 January 2014) – State Property Committee of the Republic of Belarus. 7. Demographic Yearbook of the Republic of Belarus, Statistical Handbook, Minsk, 2014. [Electronicresource]. http://www.belstat.gov.by/. 8. “Labor and Employment in the Republic of Belarus” - Statistical HandbookMINSK, 2014. [Electronicresource].http://www.belstat.gov.by/. 9. “National Accounts of the Republic of Belarus”, 2014- Statistical HandbookMINSK, 2014. [Electronicresource].http://www.belstat.gov.by/. 10. Energy Balance of the Republic of Belarus, 2008-2013. Statistical Handbook MINSK. 2014. 243 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus CHAPTER 4 POLICY AND MEASURES 1. Provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changeand Kyoto Protocol. 2. Decisions of the Conference of the Parties Nos. 10/СР.13, 1/СР.9, 4 СР/8, 4/СР.5, 2/СР.10, 3/СР.10, 2/СР.7, 3/СР.7, 11/СР.13, 5/СР.5, 7/СР.10, 11/СР.8, 1/СР.10, 5/СР.7. 3. “UN FCCC Guidelines for Preparation of the National Communications of the Parties, included in Annex I to the Convention” (Document FCCC/CP/1999/7), Bonn, 25 October -5 November 1999. 4. The State Cadastre of Renewable Energy Sources. 5. National Report on State Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions by Sources and Removal by Sinks of Greenhouse Gases Sinks not controlled by the Montreal Protocol in 1990 – 2011 of the Republic of Belarus. 6. www.unfccc.int. 7. www.ipcc.ch. 8. www.minpriroda.by. 9. www.avia.by. 10. www.pravo.by. 11. www.energoeffeck.gov.by. 12. www.pogoda.by. 13. www.priroda.org. 14. www.worldbank.org.by. 244 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS AND GENERAL EFFECT OF POLICY AND MEASURES 1. Yakovleva A.V. Econometrics. Lecture Notes. - M.: Eksmo, 2008. - 224 p. 2. Sushko V.V. Analysis of Specifics and Development Trends of Agricultural Goods Producersin Belarus [Electronic resource] / Sushko V.V. // Electron. Journal “Direktor”. – 2008. – No. 8. – Access mode: http://www.economy-law.com/cgi- bin/article.cgi?date=2008/08/30&name=24 – Access date: 14.07.2014. 3. National Report on Greenhouse Gases Inventory in the Republic of Belarus in 2012. 245 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus CHAPTER6 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 1. Loginov V.F. Climate Change in Belarus and its Consequences for Key Economy Sectors (Agriculture, Forestry and Water Sector). Initialization of Action Program in Terms of Climate Change / Loginov V.F.Minsk, 2010. 2. Kadyrov M.A. Strategy of Cost-Effective Adaptive Intensification of the Belarusian Farming System. – Minsk:“VIZA-Grupp”, 2004. – 64 p. 3. Loginov V.F.Change in Areas of Agroclimatic Regions on the Territory of Belarus / Loginov V.F., Tabalchuk T. // Nature Management. 2014. Issue 26. 4. First National Communicationin Accordance with the Commitments of the Republic of Belarusunder theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. World Bank, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus. Minsk, 2003. 5. Loginov V.F. Climate Change and its Effect on Various Economy Sectors. Analytical Report/ Loginov V.F. Minsk, 2013. 6. Loginov V.F., Sachok I, Mikutsky V.S., etc. Climate Change in Belarus and Its Consequences / Loginov V.F., Sachok I, Mikutsky V.S., etc. Under general editorship of Loginov V.F. – Minsk:Tonpik, 2003. – 330 p. 7. Loginov V.F, Volchek A.A., Volchek An.A. Spring Flood on the Rivers of Belarus: Space-Time Fluctuations and Forecast. М. “Belaruskaya Navuka”, 2014, 244 p. 246 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus CHAPTER 8 STUDIES AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION 1. On Hydrometeorological Activity: Law of the Republic of Belarus, No. 93-З of 9 January 2006, National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus. – 2006. - No. 9, 2/119. 2. TCCP 17.10-03-2007 (02120). Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Management. Hydrometeorology. Rules of Conducting Agrometeorological Measurements and Works at Stations. – Mn.: RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”, 2007. – 122 p. 3. TCCP 17.10-08/1-2008 (02120). Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Management. Hydrometeorology. Rules of Conducting Hydrological Measurements and Works– Mn.: RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”, 2008. – 320 p. 4. TCCP 17.10-08/2-2008 (02120). Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Management. Hydrometeorology. Rules of Conducting Hydrological Measurements and Works. – Mn.: RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”, 2009. – 170 p. 5. TCCP 17.10-09-2008 (02120). Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Management . Hydrometeorology. Rules of Conducting Hydrological Measurements and Works. – Mn.: RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”, 2009. – 154 p. 6. TCCP 17.10-12-2009 (02120). Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Management. Hydrometeorology. Rules of Conducting Surface Meteorological Observations and Worksat Stations. – Mn.: RUE Bel SRC “Ecology”, 2009. – 181 p. 7. Achievementsof the World Climate Research Programme. WCEP 2011. Moscow. Geneva, 2011. – 60p. 8. Meleshko V.P., Katsov V.M., Shkolnik I.M, Mirvis V.M. Climate Change and Variability of the Northern Eurasia in XX1 Century: Assessments based on the Ensemble for the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (CAOGCM)// Forecasting and Adaptation of the Society to Extreme Climate Changes: Proceedings of the International Conference on Problems of Hydrometeorological Safety. M., 2007. – 97p. 9. GovorkovaV.A., KatsovV.M., Meleshko V.P., etc. Climate in Russia in XXI Century. 4.2. Assessment of CMIP3 Model Validity for Calculation of Future Climate Change in Russia // Meteorology and Hydrology. 2008. No. 8. pp. 5–19. 247 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus 10. Loginov V.F, Mikutsky V.S., Kazhdan E.N.The Use of General Circulation Modelsfor Climate Assessment in Belarus // Nature Management. Minsk, 2000. Issue 6. pp. 30–31. 11. Climate Change in Belarus and Its Consequences / Under general editorship of Loginov V.F. – Mn.: SLS“Tonpik”, 2003. – 330 p. 12. Loginov V.F. Global and Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects —Mn.: TetraSystems, 2008. – 496 p. 13. Loginov V.F., Volchek A.A., Shpoka I.N. Hazardous Meteorological Phenomena on the Territory of Belarus. – Mn.: Belaruskaya Navuka, 2010. – 129 p. 14. Mezentsev V.S.Hydrologically Climatic Hypothesis and Examples of its Application // Water Resources. 1995. V. 22, No. 3. pp. 299–301. 15. Bambalov N.N.Role of Wetlands in Biosphere / Bambalov N.N., Rakovich V.A.,Minsk, 2005. 16. Bambalov N.N., Tanovitskaya N.I.Current Use of Wetlands and Peatlands of Belarus / Bambalov N.N., Tanovitskaya N.I.// Wetland Vegatation: Current Problems of Classification and Mapping. Use and Conservation. Minsk, 2009. pp. 17–24. 17. Yarmoshuk T.D. [etc.] Nitrous Oxide Emission on Disturbed Lowland Peatlands // Reclamation. -Minsk, 2014,N No. 2(72).-pp.122-137. 18. Augustin, J. Peatlandsandclimate. / J. Augustin, J. Couwenberg, M. Minke // Carbon credits from peatlands rewetting: climate-biodiversity-land use / eds. W. Wichtmann, F. Tanneberger. – Stuttgard, –2011, p.13-19. 19. Burlo A. etal. Greenhouse gas emissions of drained fenpeat lands in Belarus are controlled by water table, landuse, and annual weather conditions //EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. – 2014. – Т. 16. – pp. 887. 248 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus ANNEX 1 – SUMMARY TABLES SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS CO2 (1) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CH4 INVENTORY 1990 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS HFCs (2) N2O SINK CATEGORIES Total (Net Emissions) SF6 (2) PFCs (2) Total CO2 equivalent (Gg ) (1) 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other 75 207,50 15 224,24 20 145,06 100 217,03 1 784,83 240,95 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 110 576,79 102 242,80 100 211,07 550,77 240,94 101 002,78 65 140,88 43,54 122,84 65 307,26 7 214,78 8,45 15,26 7 238,50 12 985,75 54,52 33,77 13 074,05 14 289,93 434,84 67,33 14 792,09 579,72 9,42 1,75 590,88 5,96 1 234,06 0,00 1 240,02 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 5,96 1 234,06 0,00 3 589,82 24,07 0,79 A. Mineral Products 1 912,86 NA NA B. Chemical Industry B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes 1 240,02 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 3 614,68 1 912,86 1 671,39 3,05 0,79 NA NA NA 1 675,23 C. Metal Production 5,56 21,02 NO NO NO NA,NO 26,58 D. Other Production NA NO NO NO NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NA NA NA NA E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 (2) G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use NA NA NA NA NA 74,40 74,40 19 584,79 30 644,62 2 940,79 4 032,38 NA,NO 16 644,00 16 644,00 E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NO F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NO G. Other NA NA NA -28 599,35 7,08 17,84 -28 574,44 -29 899,31 7,08 14,55 -29 877,68 4. Agriculture 11 059,83 A. Enteric Fermentation 9 968,24 B. Manure Management 1 091,59 C. Rice Cultivation NO D. Agricultural Soils(3) 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) A. Forest Land 9 968,24 NO 249 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus B. Cropland 1 118,46 NA,NO IE,NA,NE,NO 1 118,46 C. Grassland NE,NO NO NO NE,NO D. Wetlands 181,50 NE,NO 3,29 184,79 E. Settlements NE,NO NE NE NE,NO F. Other Land NE,NO NE NE NE,NO G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land NE NE NE NE NA,NE,NO 2 348,43 226,30 2 574,73 NA,NE,NO 2 348,43 B. Waste-water Handling C. Waste Incineration D. Other 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) NO 2 348,43 NE 226,30 226,30 NO NO NO NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Memo Items: (4) International Bunkers 5 529,24 0,82 48,43 5 578,49 Aviation 5 529,24 0,82 48,43 5 578,49 Marine NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NO NO NO Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass NO 2 010,21 2 010,21 250 Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 139 151,23 Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 110 576,79 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus SUMMARY 2 SUMMARY REPORT FOR CO2 EQUIVALENT EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND CO2 (1) CH4 INVENTORY 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS HFCs (2) N2O SINK CATEGORIES Total (Net Emissions) PFCs (2) SF6 (2) Total CO2 equivalent (Gg ) (1) 31 969,25 15 395,17 16 415,89 53 279,65 1 897,71 126,45 55 303,82 53 277,64 297,19 126,45 53 701,29 28 595,27 24,03 45,67 28 664,97 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 9 888,68 15,70 20,31 9 924,68 3. Transport 7 178,58 21,25 17,41 7 217,24 4. Other Sectors 7 167,87 226,47 42,24 7 436,58 447,24 9,75 0,83 457,81 2,01 1 600,52 0,00 1 602,53 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2,01 1 600,52 0,00 4 211,04 60,83 0,19 A. Mineral Products 2 877,07 NA NA B. Chemical Industry 1 319,62 6,60 C. Metal Production 14,35 54,23 D. Other Production NA 2. Industrial Processes NA 63 782,58 1 602,53 2,27 4 274,32 0,19 NA NA NA 1 326,41 NO NO NO NA,NO 68,58 NA,NO NA,NO NO NA,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 2,27 2,27 NA NA NA 2 877,07 NA NA NA 4. Agriculture 2,27 NA,NE,NO F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 (2) G. Other NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 3. Solvent and Other Product Use NA,NE,NO 7 384,94 A. Enteric Fermentation 6 605,61 B. Manure Management 779,33 NA NA 64,48 64,48 15 986,59 23 371,52 6 605,61 1 885,19 2 664,52 NA,NO 14 101,39 14 101,39 E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NO F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NO C. Rice Cultivation NO D. Agricultural Soils(3) G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(1) A. Forest Land NO NA NA NA -25 521,44 4,63 16,06 -25 500,74 -25 728,15 4,63 15,37 -25 708,15 251 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus B. Cropland 168,10 C. Grassland NE,NO D. Wetlands 38,61 E. Settlements NE,NO F. Other Land G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land IE,NA,NE,NO 168,10 NO NO NE,NO NE,NO 0,70 39,31 NE NE NE,NO NE,NO NE NE NE,NO NE NE NE NE NA,NE,NO 6 047,06 222,13 6 269,18 NA,NE,NO 6 047,06 B. Waste-water Handling NA,NO 6 047,06 NE 222,13 222,13 NO C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO D. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA International Bunkers 234,39 0,03 2,05 236,48 Aviation 234,39 0,03 2,05 236,48 Marine NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NO NO NO 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) NA NA NA NA NA Memo Items: (4) Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass NO 5 102,77 5 102,77 Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Total CO2 Equivalent Emissions with Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 252 89 283,33 63 782,58 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CO2) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products B. Chemical Industry C. Metal Production D. Other Production Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS Base year ( 1990 ) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) 100 217,03 100 211,07 65 140,88 93 995,10 93 989,99 58 611,98 86 790,87 86 786,31 54 559,12 74 584,82 74 581,30 45 624,22 62 520,32 62 516,71 39 290,99 55 583,89 55 580,43 33 496,53 56 439,42 56 437,10 33 633,33 57 596,26 57 594,04 35 460,17 55 447,55 55 445,24 33 385,09 52 711,24 52 708,97 32 043,77 7 214,78 7 720,67 7 181,44 6 802,31 6 439,70 6 427,61 6 734,69 6 781,66 7 054,81 6 946,17 12 985,75 14 289,93 579,72 5,96 5,96 12 730,94 14 370,45 555,95 5,11 NA,NE,N O 5,11 10 512,53 13 964,55 568,67 4,56 NA,NE,N O 4,56 8 494,17 13 069,90 590,70 3,52 NA,NE,N O 3,52 5 333,73 10 814,26 638,03 3,61 NA,NE,N O 3,61 4 809,49 10 243,17 603,64 3,45 NA,NE,N O 3,45 4 784,49 10 502,71 781,89 2,33 NA,NE,N O 2,33 4 359,05 10 343,77 649,39 2,23 NA,NE,N O 2,23 4 059,29 10 270,27 675,79 2,31 NA,NE,N O 2,31 3 343,87 9 701,92 673,23 2,27 NA,NE,N O 2,27 3 589,82 1 912,86 1 671,39 5,56 NA 3 480,26 1 870,13 1 604,51 5,62 NA 3 269,35 1 813,52 1 450,30 5,52 NA 2 619,39 1 634,52 980,14 4,73 NA 1 985,91 1 128,11 853,40 4,40 NA 2 015,89 954,21 1 057,96 3,72 NA 2 114,37 1 037,54 1 072,40 4,43 NA 2 271,69 1 331,51 934,08 6,10 NA 2 617,30 1 526,64 1 083,60 7,06 NA 2 692,86 1 474,23 1 211,38 7,25 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA,NE,NO E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues G. Other 253 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(2) A. Forest Land B. Cropland C. Grassland D. Wetlands E. Settlements F. Other Land G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land -28 599,35 -30 605,17 -29 050,76 -22 514,62 -31 765,50 -31 272,51 -29 349,59 -26 447,88 -24 485,06 -31 409,51 -29 899,31 1 118,46 NE,NO 181,50 NE,NO NE,NO -31 536,21 768,35 NE,NO 162,69 NE,NO NE,NO -29 650,79 445,70 NE,NO 154,33 NE,NO NE,NO -30 469,40 7 813,87 NE,NO 140,91 NE,NO NE,NO -31 572,65 -320,56 NE,NO 127,71 NE,NO NE,NO -31 322,82 -70,95 NE,NO 121,26 NE,NO NE,NO -29 441,18 -21,60 NE,NO 113,19 NE,NO NE,NO -27 046,16 508,49 NE,NO 89,80 NE,NO NE,NO -29 102,78 4 534,09 NE,NO 83,64 NE,NO NE,NO -31 242,79 -243,10 NE,NO 76,38 NE,NO NE,NO NE NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NE NA,NE,N O NA,NE,N O NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO B. Waste-water Handling C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 75 207,50 66 870,19 61 009,45 54 689,58 32 740,72 26 327,26 29 204,20 33 420,07 33 579,79 23 994,59 103 806,85 97 475,36 90 060,21 77 204,21 64 506,23 57 599,77 58 553,79 59 867,95 58 064,85 55 404,11 Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations 5 529,24 5 529,24 NA,NO NO 3 566,71 3 566,71 NA,NO NO 1 604,18 1 604,18 NA,NO NO 789,89 789,89 NA,NO NO 326,33 326,33 NA,NO NO 210,43 210,43 NA,NO NO 189,09 189,09 NA,NO NO 176,89 176,89 NA,NO NO 100,64 100,64 NA,NO NO 115,89 115,89 NA,NO NO CO2 Emissions from Biomass 2 010,21 955,05 918,28 983,26 1 330,88 1 517,14 1 624,87 2 367,43 2 736,35 2 917,80 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total CO2 emissions including net CO2 from LULUCF Total CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF 254 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CO2) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) 50 758,78 49 831,41 49 762,95 49 890,39 53 086,17 53 258,18 55 496,99 54 511,07 56 453,41 52 918,12 50 756,36 49 829,01 49 760,63 49 887,44 53 083,90 53 256,13 55 494,95 54 509,19 56 451,52 52 916,15 30 693,39 31 132,36 30 780,90 30 612,74 32 634,99 32 065,67 32 498,19 30 460,18 31 487,12 30 265,62 6 746,91 6 287,69 6 466,65 7 018,03 7 800,44 8 114,22 8 358,17 8 671,77 8 708,88 8 218,98 3 114,63 3 112,64 4 101,37 3 957,99 4 404,34 4 462,92 5 651,27 5 643,39 6 367,30 5 316,89 9 364,23 8 496,47 7 825,54 7 693,81 7 618,47 7 972,40 8 323,27 9 074,22 9 354,74 8 529,86 837,20 799,84 586,17 604,87 625,66 640,92 664,05 659,62 533,49 584,80 2,41 2,40 2,32 2,95 2,27 2,05 2,04 1,88 1,89 1,98 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 2,41 2,40 2,32 2,95 2,27 2,05 2,04 1,88 1,89 1,98 2 560,50 1 396,96 2 515,62 1 359,55 2 765,85 1 550,73 3 000,93 1 779,13 3 172,32 1 948,87 3 411,58 2 176,94 3 631,47 2 328,57 3 768,93 2 436,82 3 875,29 2 622,11 3 890,44 2 565,83 1 155,43 1 148,01 1 207,09 1 213,34 1 213,86 1 224,27 1 291,41 1 320,17 1 239,88 1 312,36 C. Metal Production 8,11 8,06 8,03 8,47 9,60 10,38 11,48 11,94 13,30 12,25 D. Other Production NA NA NA NE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products B. Chemical Industry E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 255 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(2) A. Forest Land -30 931,92 -28 969,12 -25 751,19 -22 325,18 -22 910,76 -26 231,36 -28 455,19 -27 582,85 -27 161,20 -29 960,49 -30 901,07 -29 006,56 -25 856,35 -22 777,06 -23 213,62 -26 726,47 -28 555,03 -27 746,60 -27 116,74 -30 052,70 B. Cropland -101,84 -29,26 44,11 400,51 264,40 444,29 62,48 128,52 -81,31 55,46 C. Grassland NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO D. Wetlands 70,99 66,70 61,05 51,37 38,46 50,82 37,36 35,23 36,85 36,74 E. Settlements NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO F. Other Land NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 22 387,36 23 377,91 26 777,61 30 566,14 33 347,73 30 438,41 30 673,27 30 697,15 33 167,50 26 848,07 53 319,28 52 347,03 52 528,80 52 891,32 56 258,50 56 669,77 59 128,46 58 280,00 60 328,70 56 808,57 189,09 204,33 250,08 271,43 262,28 207,38 160,31 214,86 246,49 174,74 G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land B. Waste-water Handling 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total CO2 emissions including net CO2 from LULUCF Total CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 189,09 204,33 250,08 271,43 262,28 207,38 160,31 214,86 246,49 174,74 NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO 3 042,03 3 233,83 3 289,14 3 390,71 3 487,35 4 046,40 4 491,44 4 731,89 4 794,03 4 666,72 256 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CO2) Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2010 2011 2012 Change from base to latest reported year (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) % 54 279,33 51 315,46 53 279,65 -46,84 54 277,32 51 313,36 53 277,64 -46,83 31 702,37 29 007,35 28 595,27 -56,10 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 8 115,46 8 028,89 9 888,68 37,06 3. Transport 5 253,59 6 582,60 7 178,58 -44,72 4. Other Sectors 8 551,38 7 108,08 7 167,87 -49,84 654,52 586,44 447,24 -22,85 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2,01 2,10 2,01 -66,27 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 2,01 2,10 2,01 -66,27 4 018,63 4 065,39 4 211,04 17,30 A. Mineral Products 2 682,24 2 688,50 2 877,07 50,41 B. Chemical Industry 1 323,04 1 362,99 1 319,62 -21,05 C. Metal Production 13,36 13,90 14,35 157,97 D. Other Production NA NA NA 0,00 NA NA NA 0,00 NA NA NA 0,00 2. Industrial Processes E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 257 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry(2) A. Forest Land -30 202,73 -29 254,54 -25 521,44 -10,76 -30 129,36 -29 163,91 -25 728,15 -13,95 B. Cropland -109,85 -130,53 168,10 -84,97 C. Grassland NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO 0,00 D. Wetlands 36,47 39,90 38,61 -78,73 E. Settlements NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO 0,00 F. Other Land NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO 0,00 NE NE NE 0,00 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO 0,00 D. Other NA NA NA 0,00 NA NA NA 0,00 Total CO2 emissions including net CO2 from LULUCF 28 095,23 26 126,32 31 969,25 -57,49 Total CO2 emissions excluding net CO2 from LULUCF 58 297,96 55 380,85 57 490,69 -44,62 229,97 229,97 243,34 243,34 234,39 234,39 -95,76 -95,76 NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO 0,00 NO NO NO 0,00 5 147,51 5 261,60 5 102,77 153,84 G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land B. Waste-water Handling 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 258 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CH4) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS Base year (1990) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) 84,99 74,65 92,02 85,55 77,83 73,88 79,07 85,72 82,90 81,25 A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 26,23 21,81 20,99 18,42 16,58 15,16 15,42 16,44 16,35 16,15 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 2,07 1,84 1,52 1,25 1,09 0,94 0,91 0,94 0,92 0,88 0,40 0,42 0,40 0,39 0,38 0,38 0,40 0,40 0,42 0,42 1. Energy 4. Other Sectors 5. Other 2,60 2,58 2,08 1,49 0,98 0,91 0,90 0,79 0,72 0,58 20,71 16,47 16,41 14,67 13,39 12,32 12,21 13,73 13,70 13,76 0,45 0,50 0,58 0,62 0,75 0,61 1,00 0,58 0,59 0,51 58,76 58,76 52,84 NA,NE,N O 52,84 71,03 NA,NE,N O 71,03 67,13 NA,NE,N O 67,13 61,25 NA,NE,N O 61,25 58,72 NA,NE,N O 58,72 63,66 NA,NE,N O 63,66 69,28 NA,NE,N O 69,28 66,55 NA,NE,N O 66,55 65,10 NA,NE,N O 65,10 1,15 NA 1,15 NA 1,09 NA 0,92 NA 0,87 NA 0,78 NA 0,88 NA 1,20 NA 1,38 NA 1,44 NA B. Chemical Industry 0,15 0,14 0,09 0,07 0,08 0,11 0,08 0,10 0,11 0,14 C. Metal Production 1,00 1,01 0,99 0,85 0,79 0,67 0,80 1,10 1,27 1,30 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products NA,NE,NO D. Other Production E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture 526,66 501,93 468,16 442,70 417,78 390,08 371,81 365,96 361,92 342,93 A. Enteric Fermentation 474,68 452,17 421,72 399,70 377,77 352,46 335,97 330,88 326,99 309,06 B. Manure Management 51,98 49,75 46,44 43,00 40,02 37,62 35,84 35,08 34,93 33,88 C. Rice Cultivation NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Agricultural Soils 259 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus G. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0,34 0,16 6,08 0,35 0,46 0,90 1,15 0,18 0,20 0,67 0,34 0,16 6,08 0,35 0,46 0,90 1,15 0,18 0,20 0,67 B. Cropland NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO C. Grassland NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Wetlands 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry A. Forest Land NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO E. Settlements NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE F. Other Land NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE G. Other NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 111,83 112,02 112,22 112,41 90,00 92,64 113,59 114,74 119,49 128,06 111,83 112,02 112,22 112,41 90,00 92,64 113,59 114,74 119,49 128,06 B. Waste-water Handling NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 724,96 689,90 679,57 641,92 586,95 558,28 566,50 567,80 565,89 554,36 724,63 689,74 673,49 641,57 586,49 557,38 565,35 567,62 565,69 553,69 0,04 0,03 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,04 0,03 0,01 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total CH4 emissions including CH4 from LULUCF Total CH4 emissions excluding CH4 from LULUCF Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 260 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CH4) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) 86,19 85,94 85,70 88,20 92,46 92,06 97,00 104,63 99,04 85,05 16,58 15,97 15,09 14,85 14,67 16,34 17,65 17,25 15,66 14,78 1. Energy Industries 0,86 0,81 0,81 0,83 0,88 0,90 0,96 0,91 0,96 1,14 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 0,43 0,44 0,47 0,51 0,56 0,61 0,62 0,66 0,67 0,57 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes 0,49 0,47 0,63 0,62 0,67 0,69 0,84 0,83 0,91 0,84 13,89 13,19 12,67 12,37 11,99 13,55 14,62 14,10 12,56 11,42 0,91 1,06 0,50 0,51 0,57 0,59 0,61 0,74 0,56 0,81 69,61 69,97 70,62 73,35 77,80 75,73 79,35 87,38 83,38 70,27 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 69,61 69,97 70,62 73,35 77,80 75,73 79,35 87,38 83,38 70,27 2,43 1,61 1,68 1,64 1,75 1,97 2,11 2,34 2,41 2,69 A. Mineral Products NA NA NA NA,NE NA NA NA NA NA NA B. Chemical Industry 0,15 0,23 0,20 0,23 0,24 0,24 0,28 0,26 0,30 0,23 C. Metal Production 1,46 1,45 1,45 1,52 1,73 1,87 2,07 2,15 2,39 2,20 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 326,42 322,00 314,32 308,54 312,38 321,48 325,37 324,80 332,15 339,85 A. Enteric Fermentation 294,01 290,46 283,34 277,96 281,71 290,00 293,15 292,45 299,26 306,45 B. Manure Management 32,41 31,54 30,98 30,58 30,67 31,48 32,22 32,35 32,90 33,40 NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Other Production E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO 261 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus G. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0,39 0,16 2,52 0,83 0,20 0,18 0,49 0,23 0,22 0,44 0,39 0,16 2,52 0,83 0,20 0,18 0,49 0,23 0,22 0,44 B. Cropland NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO C. Grassland NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Wetlands 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry A. Forest Land NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO E. Settlements NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE F. Other Land NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE G. Other NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 129,67 131,68 136,04 182,97 201,63 208,94 232,63 243,22 257,57 285,47 129,67 131,68 136,04 182,97 201,63 208,94 232,63 243,22 257,57 285,47 B. Waste-water Handling NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO D. Other NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 544,29 541,46 540,23 582,29 608,64 624,77 657,83 675,30 691,68 713,24 543,90 541,30 537,71 581,46 608,44 624,59 657,34 675,07 691,46 712,80 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total CH4 emissions including CH4 from LULUCF Total CH4 emissions excluding CH4 from LULUCF Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 262 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (CH4) Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 2010 2011 2012 Change from base to latest reported year (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) % 97,07 92,45 90,37 6,32 15,15 15,17 14,15 -46,04 1. Energy Industries 1,17 1,09 1,14 -44,81 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 0,59 0,59 0,75 85,63 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes 0,85 0,94 1,01 -61,02 11,67 11,88 10,78 -47,92 0,86 0,67 0,46 3,52 81,93 77,28 76,22 29,70 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 81,93 77,28 76,22 29,70 152,75 2,71 2,81 2,90 A. Mineral Products NA NA NA 0,00 B. Chemical Industry 0,30 0,31 0,31 116,76 C. Metal Production 2,40 2,50 2,58 157,97 NA NA NA 0,00 340,70 342,90 351,66 -33,23 A. Enteric Fermentation 306,57 307,29 314,55 -33,73 B. Manure Management 34,14 35,61 37,11 -28,61 NO NO NO 0,00 D. Other Production E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO 0,00 E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas NO NO NO 0,00 F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues NO NO NO 0,00 263 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus G. Other NA NA NA 0,00 0,23 0,21 0,22 -34,58 0,23 0,21 0,22 -34,58 B. Cropland NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO 0,00 C. Grassland NO NO NO 0,00 D. Wetlands 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry A. Forest Land NE,NO NE,NO NE,NO 0,00 E. Settlements NE NE NE 0,00 F. Other Land NE NE NE 0,00 G. Other NE NE NE 0,00 284,37 298,81 287,96 157,49 284,37 298,81 287,96 157,49 B. Waste-water Handling NE NE NE 0,00 C. Waste Incineration NO NO NO 0,00 D. Other NA NA NA 0,00 NA NA NA 0,00 Total CH4 emissions including CH4 from LULUCF 725,08 737,18 733,10 1,12 Total CH4 emissions excluding CH4 from LULUCF 724,85 736,97 732,88 1,14 0,00 0,00 0,00 -95,76 0,00 0,00 0,00 -95,76 NA,NO NA,NO NA,NO 0,00 NO NO NO 0,00 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 264 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (N2O) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS Base year ( 1990 ) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 0,78 0,78 0,40 (Gg) 0,71 0,71 0,37 (Gg) 0,60 0,60 0,28 (Gg) 0,51 0,51 0,23 (Gg) 0,44 0,44 0,20 (Gg) 0,40 0,40 0,17 (Gg) 0,40 0,40 0,17 (Gg) 0,41 0,41 0,15 (Gg) 0,41 0,41 0,15 (Gg) 0,39 0,39 0,14 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,11 0,22 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,11 0,18 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,09 0,17 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,07 0,16 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,15 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,15 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,15 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,17 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,18 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,18 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (Gg) 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products B. Chemical Industry C. Metal Production D. Other Production E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural 0,24 0,23 0,23 0,21 0,21 0,20 0,19 0,19 0,22 0,28 63,18 62,10 55,83 53,21 46,79 42,43 45,44 46,89 47,02 45,15 9,49 9,48 8,72 8,21 7,70 7,24 6,90 6,72 6,59 6,31 53,69 NO NO 52,62 NO NO 47,11 NO NO 45,00 NO NO 39,09 NO NO 35,18 NO NO 38,54 NO NO 40,18 NO NO 40,44 NO NO 38,84 NO NO 265 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Residues G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry A. Forest Land NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0,06 0,05 0,45 0,06 0,07 0,10 0,12 0,05 0,05 0,09 0,05 0,44 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,05 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,06 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,10 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,11 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,05 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE 0,05 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,08 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE C. Grassland D. Wetlands E. Settlements NO 0,01 NE 0,04 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,01 NE F. Other Land NE NE B. Cropland G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land B. Waste-water Handling C. Waste Incineration D. Other 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total N2O emissions including N2O from LULUCF Total N2O emissions excluding N2O from LULUCF Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations IE,NA,NE,NO NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,73 0,71 0,69 0,67 0,65 0,62 0,66 0,69 0,72 0,75 0,73 NO NA 0,71 NO NA 0,69 NO NA 0,67 NO NA 0,65 NO NA 0,62 NO NA 0,66 NO NA 0,69 NO NA 0,72 NO NA 0,75 NO NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 64,98 63,80 57,80 54,67 48,16 43,75 46,82 48,23 48,43 46,66 64,93 63,75 57,35 54,61 48,09 43,65 46,70 48,18 48,38 46,57 0,16 0,16 NA,NO NO 0,10 0,10 NA,NO NO 0,05 0,05 NA,NO NO 0,02 0,02 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NO 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NO 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NO CO2 Emissions from Biomass 266 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (N2O) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products B. Chemical Industry C. Metal Production D. Other Production Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Gg) 0,37 0,37 0,13 (Gg) 0,37 0,37 0,12 (Gg) 0,36 0,36 0,12 (Gg) 0,35 0,35 0,12 (Gg) 0,37 0,37 0,12 (Gg) 0,39 0,39 0,12 (Gg) 0,42 0,42 0,13 (Gg) 0,41 0,41 0,12 (Gg) 0,41 0,41 0,12 (Gg) 0,41 0,41 0,16 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,04 0,02 0,18 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,02 0,17 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,17 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,16 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,16 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,03 0,18 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,19 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,20 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,05 0,18 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,04 0,16 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA,NE 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural 0,25 0,27 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,22 0,22 0,23 0,21 0,21 45,13 42,11 40,39 42,01 43,26 44,96 47,25 46,42 49,34 50,46 6,03 5,85 5,65 5,49 5,43 5,47 5,49 5,47 5,55 5,67 39,10 NO NO 36,27 NO NO 34,75 NO NO 36,52 NO NO 37,83 NO NO 39,49 NO NO 41,76 NO NO 40,94 NO NO 43,78 NO NO 44,80 NO NO 267 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus Residues G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry A. Forest Land NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0,07 0,05 0,21 0,10 0,06 0,06 0,08 0,06 0,06 0,07 C. Grassland D. Wetlands E. Settlements 0,06 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,04 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,21 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,10 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,06 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,05 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,08 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,06 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,06 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE 0,07 IE,NA,NE, NO NO 0,00 NE F. Other Land NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE B. Cropland G. Other 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land B. Waste-water Handling C. Waste Incineration D. Other 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Total N2O emissions including N2O from LULUCF Total N2O emissions excluding N2O from LULUCF Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 0,75 0,76 0,76 0,73 0,74 0,75 0,75 0,75 0,73 0,68 0,75 NO NA 0,76 NO NA 0,76 NO NA 0,73 NO NA 0,74 NO NA 0,75 NO NA 0,75 NO NA 0,75 NO NA 0,73 NO NA 0,68 NO NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 46,57 43,56 41,99 43,45 44,69 46,38 48,72 47,87 50,74 51,84 46,50 43,51 41,78 43,35 44,63 46,32 48,64 47,81 50,68 51,77 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,00 0,00 NA,NO NO CO2 Emissions from Biomass 268 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (N2O) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 1. Energy A. Fuel Combustion (Sectoral Approach) 1. Energy Industries 2. Manufacturing Industries and Construction 3. Transport 4. Other Sectors 5. Other B. Fugitive Emissions from Fuels 1. Solid Fuels 2. Oil and Natural Gas Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2010 2011 2012 Change from base to latest reported year (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) % 0,40 0,40 0,15 0,04 0,04 0,16 0,01 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,40 0,40 0,14 0,05 0,05 0,15 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,41 0,41 0,15 0,07 0,06 0,14 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO 0,00 -47,52 -47,52 -62,82 33,09 -48,46 -37,26 -52,56 -66,27 0,00 -66,27 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO 0,00 NA 0,00 NO -76,48 0,00 -76,48 0,00 2. Industrial Processes A. Mineral Products B. Chemical Industry C. Metal Production D. Other Production E. Production of Halocarbons and SF6 F. Consumption of Halocarbons and SF6 G. Other 3. Solvent and Other Product Use 4. Agriculture A. Enteric Fermentation B. Manure Management C. Rice Cultivation D. Agricultural Soils E. Prescribed Burning of Savannas F. Field Burning of Agricultural Residues G. Other 5. Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry 269 NA NA NA 0,00 0,39 0,20 0,21 -13,33 49,78 52,39 51,57 -18,37 5,75 5,88 6,08 -35,90 44,03 NO NO NA 46,51 NO NO NA 45,49 NO NO NA -15,28 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,06 0,05 0,05 -9,93 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus A. Forest Land B. Cropland 0,06 0,05 0,05 5,62 IE,NA,NE,NO IE,NA,NE,NO IE,NA,NE,NO 0,00 C. Grassland D. Wetlands E. Settlements NO 0,00 NE NO 0,00 NE NO 0,00 NE 0,00 -78,73 0,00 F. Other Land NE NE NE 0,00 G. Other NE NE NE 0,00 0,68 0,68 0,72 -1,84 0,68 NO NA 0,68 NO NA 0,72 NO NA -1,84 0,00 0,00 NA NA NA 0,00 Total N2O emissions including N2O from LULUCF 51,32 53,73 52,95 -18,51 Total N2O emissions excluding N2O from LULUCF 51,26 53,68 52,90 -18,52 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO 0,01 0,01 NA,NO NO -95,76 -95,76 0,00 0,00 6. Waste A. Solid Waste Disposal on Land B. Waste-water Handling C. Waste Incineration D. Other 7. Other (as specified in Summary 1.A) Memo Items: International Bunkers Aviation Marine Multilateral Operations CO2 Emissions from Biomass 270 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES (3) Emissions of HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS Base year ( 1990 ) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 2,84 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-32 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-41 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-43-10mee NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-125 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-134 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-134a NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-152a NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-143 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-143a NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-227ea NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-236fa NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-245ca NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO Emissions of PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO CF4 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C2F6 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C 3F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C4F10 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO c-C4F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C5F12 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO Emissions of SF6 - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,01 0,05 0,24 0,28 0,37 SF6 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 (4) Unspecified mix of listed PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) (3) 271 0,00 7,98 NA,NE,NO C6F14 0,00 7,13 NA,NE,NO (3) 0,00 5,34 HFC-23 Unspecified mix of listed HFCs(4) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) 0,00 3,68 0,00 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) (Gg) Emissions of HFCs(3) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) 9,35 12,90 16,38 19,24 23,14 26,19 30,05 31,00 35,80 32,20 HFC-23 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-32 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-41 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-43-10mee NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-125 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-134 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-134a 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 0,00 HFC-152a 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-227ea NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-236fa NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO HFC-245ca NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO Emissions of PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO CF4 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C2F6 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C 3F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C4F10 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO c-C4F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C5F12 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO C6F14 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO Unspecified mix of listed PFCs(4) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO Emissions of SF6(3) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) 0,41 0,46 0,50 0,69 1,03 1,48 1,87 2,27 2,39 2,42 SF6 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 HFC-143 HFC-143a (4) Unspecified mix of listed HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) (3) 272 Sixth National Communication of the Republic of Belarus TABLE 10 EMISSION TRENDS (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) Inventory 2012 Submission 2014 v1.2 BELARUS 2010 GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK CATEGORIES 2011 (Gg) Emissions of HFCs(3) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) (Gg) 13,10 NA,NE,NO 2012 Change from base to latest reported year (Gg) % NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-23 0,00 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-32 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-41 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-43-10mee NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-125 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-134 0,00 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-134a 0,01 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-152a NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-143 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-143a NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-227ea NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-236fa NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 HFC-245ca NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 Emissions of PFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 CF4 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 C2F6 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 C 3F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 C4F10 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 c-C4F8 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 C5F12 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 C6F14 NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 Unspecified mix of listed PFCs(4) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO NA,NE,NO 0,00 Emissions of SF6(3) - (Gg CO2 equivalent) 2,42 2,36 2,27 100,00 SF6 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 (4) Unspecified mix of listed HFCs - (Gg CO2 equivalent) (3) 273