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Presentation by Mike Banach at the October 15, 2015 CAPG meeting for agenda item 3c. Recent DDT activity New DES adopted June 19, 2015. DDT met Sep. 11 to discuss 3 issues that were noticed once data started coming in. 1. Whether the definition/description of the TRTmethod field should be modified. The TRTs are no longer active, and the intent of this field is to flag the method used in NOAA status reviews. Not all populations of interest have TRT-sanctioned methods, but most populations will have data submitted for status reviews. 2. Clarifying expectations for inter-agency (NOAA/state/tribal) coordination for designating the "status review" data set for each population. We had a few surprises where more than one data set for a population arrived with the TRTmethod field set to "Yes". Our understanding is that everyone knew who is to submit the single data set destined for NOAA's status reviews. 3. The MethodNumber field was not always used consistently or as expected. The ContactAgency and MethodNumber fields allow sharing of more than one data set for a population. But the MethodNumber was not being used as envisioned. 1 Decisions made at 9/11 DDT meeting: 1. Whether the definition/description of the TRTmethod field should be modified. Changed field description: Old: "Flag indicating whether the methods ... are ... by the TRT." New: "Flag indicating whether the methods ... are ... for Endangered Species Act status reviews." 2. Clarifying expectations for inter-agency (NOAA/state/tribal) coordination for designating the "status review" data set for each population. This issue had largely been addressed before the meeting through inter-agency coordination once it was pointed out. We will watch for future problems but don't expect any. No DES change was needed. 3. The MethodNumber field was not always used consistently or as expected. This issue had already been addressed before the meeting. We did reconfirm that the ability to submit more than one data set per agency is of value to multiple people and agencies. 2 1 additional DES topic discussed at 9/11 DDT meeting: 4. Having 3 fields for "populations" is a pain. (PopID, CBFWApopName, CommonPopName). PSMFC would like to move to using only PopID, and making it required.† We currently have 3 non-required fields to identify the population: PopID CBFWApopName CommonPopName Instead, values for a new PopID would be sent before it is used in data tables (using Appendix E). Population name(s) Species Run Geographic extent † Everyone agreed we should work toward this goal. SAR table also has PopAggregation field which slightly complicates this. 3 Other DES adjustments in the draft for the next version: 1. Adjustments / corrections made for when PopFitNotes is required based on value of PopFit in the various tables ..... and also on value of PopAggregation in SAR table. 2. Several small corrections / inconsistencies addressed regarding things such as: required fields values in lookup tables minimum values for confidence limits. Final DES note: We are implementing DES-based validation rules for when data are sent to us. The mechanism will provide useful plain English feedback to data submitters in real time if there's a problem. Minimizes QC effort on our side. ODFW got the rules so they could test their data before trying to submit. Available for anyone if you want to try. Contact Bill Kinney. 4 Proposed Process For Selecting The Next Indicator(s) To Pursue 1. (Done ?) Mike Banach researches/discusses data needs with NMFS, BPA, maybe PUDs and others. Also examines SPS database to see what we don't yet provide. 2. Broad C.A. team determines for each possible new indicator: a. priority b. if it's possible c. how much data are available, with what levels of work. 3. This information brought to CAPG and StreamNet Executive Committee meeting for decisions on which to pursue. Today we are addressing # 2a. Then I'll work with everyone on # 2b and 2c. We don't want to go too fast – just get this in the queue for the 5-year plan. 5 Potential next indicator(s) to pursue Sources consulted: Oregon 10-Year Plan NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFS-NWFSC-42. June 2000. (VSP report) NMFS's SPS database. (Salmon Population Summary) Various HSRG and HGMP documents. (Hatchery Scientific Review Group; Hatchery Genetic Monitoring Plans) WDFW (various online sources) CAPG direction from last meeting SalmonRecovery.gov, AMIP document Tony Grover at July 2015 StreamNet Exec. Comm. meeting Two tables are on the following pages. In the first table I start with potential indicators that, for various reasons, I think are not candidates to be the next one to pursue. (I could of course be wrong.) This will help give an overview of where we currently stand before we delve into what I think are more likely potential new indicators, which are shown in the second table. In both tables, row colors alternate unless consecutive rows are related concepts. In the second table the ideas expressed at this meeting are recorded, and rows are rearranged with those felt most likely at the top of the table. 6 INDICATOR SOURCE NON-CANDIDATES URL / NOTES Table 1. These are either already being done, or I think are not likely to be done. Mari 10/5/15 says CA really already covers everything currently used in SPS. Unused SPS fields (in struck-out red text below) are things that were proposed/considered for SPS but never used, and these were generally from Puget Sound. But there are new needs being discussed. Those are shown in the next table. For example, number of returning fish rather than only the number that spawn. Mari can speak to these more if desired. Current SPS database needs NMFS SPS database Adult returns adjusted for mean SAR NMFS SPS database https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 Proposed/considered for SPS but never used; from Puget Sound. NMFS SPS database NMFS SPS database NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFSNWFSC-42. June 2000. (VSP report) CAPG 7/2014, in CA 5-year plan https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 Proposed/considered for SPS but never used; from Puget Sound. https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 Proposed/considered for SPS but never used; from Puget Sound. Ln R/S Ln R/S adjusted for mean SAR VSP parameter: Abundance Stage-specific survival rates Range Oregon 10Year Plan Distribution Oregon 10Year Plan http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/assets/25/6190_06162004_143739_tm42.pdf Covered by NOSA and juvenile population and juvenile outmigration tables. Identified as highest priority by CAPG at July 2015 meeting. Mari Williams on 10/5/2015 said this item is already adequately covered by our existing RperS and SAR tables. http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring %202015.pdf http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring %202015.pdf 7 INDICATOR SOURCE Barriers and Oregon 10passage facilities Year Plan URL / NOTES Table 1. http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/02%20OCS%20Key%20Co nservation%20Issues%202015.pdf http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/02%20OCS%20Key%20Co nservation%20Issues%202015.pdf http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/02%20OCS%20Key%20Co nservation%20Issues%202015.pdf http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/02%20OCS%20Key%20Co nservation%20Issues%202015.pdf Diversions and screens Oregon 10Year Plan Land use changes Oregon 10Year Plan Invasive species Oregon 10Year Plan Effectiveness monitoring (Response to a particular mgt. action ) Oregon 10Year Plan http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring %202015.pdf Specific limiting Oregon 10factors Year Plan http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring %202015.pdf 8 INDICATOR SOURCE Table 2. URL / NOTES 9 INDICATOR SOURCE CANDIDATES pHOS census pHOS effective PEHC Proportion Effective Hatchery Contribution (pEHC) [a.k.a Proportion Hatchery Effective Contribution (pHEC)] HSRG HGMPs URL / NOTES Table 2. More likely candidates toward the top. pHOS census = pHOSc = % of fish on spawning grounds that are hatchery origin. pHOS effective = pHOSe = % of fish that actually reproduce PEHC = Proportion Effective Hatchery Contribution = (Not well defined; can't tell if all hatchery-descended fish are included (which would approach 1.0 over time) or if only most recent generation or two.) Proportion of natural spawners that are genetically derived from a [specific (?)] hatchery program; includes both hatchery-natural origin hybrids and pure natural-origin hatchery-lineage fish. [Slightly modified from July 28, 2014 HGMP for Whitehorse Ponds early winter steelhead (segregated) and from Dungeness River early winter steelhead hatchery program HGMP from same date.] 10 INDICATOR SOURCE URL / NOTES Identified as highest priority by CAPG. Table 2. http://wdfw.wa.gov/conservation/fisheries/steelhead/gene_bank/workshop_files/HatcheryRisksPS_educational_w orkshop071315.pdf . This July 13, 2015 presentation by Ken Warheit and Joe Anderson of WDFW for steelhead workshop defines PEHC as "The proportion of the parental population that is of hatchery-origin." It is a measure of gene flow from hatchery population into a wild population. It is determined genetically and is calculated as: PEHC Yes, let’s talk about PEHC more. Likely candidate for next indicator to pursue. WDFW (various online sources) and CAPG 7/2014, in CA 5-year plan PEHC = ( (2 X HH ) + HW ) / 2. Where: HH=Proportion of population with two hatchery-origin parents. HW=Proportion of population with one hatchery origin parent. PEHC differs from pHOS in that pHOS tells the relative number of hatchery fish that spawned (potentially reproduced) in the wild, while PEHC tells about the actual reproductive success of those hatchery fish relative to wild fish. I (Mike B.) suspect the combination of pHOS and PEHC together may make a more powerful tool than either alone, as a difference between them in either direction may indicate whether and how much hatchery and wild fish interfere with each other. Is there a disconnect between the definition (refers to % of parent population) and the equation (refers to % of offspring population)? More speculation from Mike: When we get back to hatchery indicators, the converse of this measure (PEWC – don't say that out loud) may be of interest for hatchery populations. (And maybe a new PNI that takes into account successful spawning rather than just numbers spawning?) VSP parameter: Pop'n spatial structure Yes, discuss further. NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFSNWFSC-42. June 2000. (VSP report) Described as follows: spawning groups sizes, distribution, and connectivity (text description) habitat quality and distribution (text description) homing propensities of the fish in the population (stray rates, but currently text descriptions) 11 INDICATOR VSP parameter: Diversity Yes, discuss further. Mari said that for all tables, extra info about age data would be useful, such as sample sizes, aging methods, and source(s) of sampled fish. Life history traits Yes, discuss further. AMIP trigger Juvenile fish migration timing Yes, discuss further. Total adults returning to spawn Challenging. Defined to where? Adult R/S adjusted for mean SAR No opinions voiced. VSP parameter: Pop'n growth rate No opinions voiced. SOURCE NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFSNWFSC-42. June 2000. (VSP report) Oregon 10Year Plan SalmonRecover y.gov, AMIP document NMFS SPS database Table 2. URL / NOTES genetic diversity (Currently text descriptions, but maybe quantifiable?) diversity of life history traits (Currently text descriptions. Are any quantifiable?) o anadromy (Applies only to O. mykiss and coastal cutthroat trout?) o morphology o juvenile development rate o fecundity o migration timing o spawning timing o age at smolting o age at maturity o etc. http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring%202015.pdf This is a suggested possible future juvenile AMIP trigger. It is mentioned as being at the local level (stream or reach), but also perhaps at the population and MPG scales. Found at link to "Appendix 4" under "AMIP Links" on http://www.salmonrecovery.gov/BiologicalOpinions/FCRPSBiOp/2010SupplementalFCRPSBiOp/AMIP.aspx. Mari says actual definition is adult natural spawners excluding jacks, including natural origin broodstock, and accounting for prespawn mortality. (Prespawn morts have been accounted for.) https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 NMFS SPS database https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 NOAA Tech. Memo. NMFSNWFSC-42. June 2000. (VSP report) Mostly covered by RperS table. addition of intrinsic rate of increase, if available, would be good characterizing density-dependent mortality rates, if available, would be useful 12 INDICATOR AMIP triggers: Juvenile fish 1. Size distribution 2. Condition factor No opinions voiced. Habitat: amount; distribution; condition; how much in protected areas. Relates to spatial structure of distribution. Tom says BPA/BOR BIOP expert panels currently working in this area. Natural origin broodstock (numbers) Move to hatchery group. SARs for different treatments Not likely candidate. SOURCE SalmonRecover y.gov, AMIP document Table 2. URL / NOTES These are suggested possible future juvenile AMIP trigger. They are mentioned as being at the local level (stream or reach), but also perhaps at the population and MPG scales. Found at link to "Appendix 4" under "AMIP Links" on http://www.salmonrecovery.gov/BiologicalOpinions/FCRPSBiOp/2010SupplementalFCRPSBiOp/AMIP.aspx. Oregon 10Year Plan http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/public_comment.asp http://www.dfw.state.or.us/conservationstrategy/docs/public_review/06%20OCS%20Monitoring%202015.pdf NMFS SPS database https://www.webapps.nwfsc.noaa.gov/apex/f?p=261:1:0 Tony Grover at July 2015 StreamNet Exec. Comm. meeting For example: transported vs. in-river migrating fish. fish released just above/below a dam. Such harvest data are the realm of TAC. We will not pursue. 13