Download ITU / BDT Regional Network Planning Arab Region

ITU / BDT Regional Network Planning
Workshop with Tool Case Studies for the
Arab Region
Cairo - Egypt,
16–
16– 27 July 2006
Requirements for decision making. Strategic
Planning and Solution Mapping
Oscar González Soto
ITU Consultant Expert
Strategic Planning and Assessment
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 1
Requirements for decision making and planning
Content
• Requirements to the Network Planner
• Scope and activities
within the network planning area
• Strategic Planning and new Technologies.
• Solution mapping per scenario
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 2
Requirements for decision making and planning
Key requirements in competition
• Business Oriented Needs
– What are the best customer segments to address ?
– Which services have to be introduced through time ?
– What is the best service bundling per customer type ?
– How to maximize revenues ?
– How to reduce capital expenditure ?
– How to reduce operational expenditure ?
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 3
Requirements for decision making and planning
Key requirements in competition
• Network Oriented Needs
– How to forecast services and traffic demands?
– How many nodes to install ?
– What is best location for systems and related communication
media ?
– What is the best network architecture and routing ?
– Best balance between built and lease ?
– How to plan capacity evolution and solutions migration ?
– How to ensure SLA and protection level ?
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 4
Requirements for decision making and planning
Key requirements in competition
• Operation Support Needs
– How to evaluate alternatives for direct operation and
outsourcing ?
– How to organize the operation processes ?
– Which IT applications ensure an efficient support to
operation ?
– How to train labor force on the operational activities ?
July 2006
slide 5
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for decision making and planning
Role within the network lifecycle
Procurement &
Delivery
Network
Design
The Managed Network
Network DB
Connectivity
Services
Topology
Inventory
Infrastructure
Installation &
Commissioning
Network
Planning
Services
Management
July 2006
Network
Operation
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Maintenance
& Repair
slide 6
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Mission
“Decision making on the network deployment to Optimize
Business
based on quantitative evaluation”
• Considering geo-marketing scenarios and traffic demand
• Overall vision on the network layers
• Deciding network topology, interconnection and routing
• Optimizing balance between performance/SLA and cost (CAPEX
+ OPEX)
• Considering regulatory constraints
• Anticipating business evaluation and feasibility
July 2006
slide 7
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Architecture and
Technology KnowHow
Operational Research
and optimization
Economical
Engineering
Teletraffic
Methodology
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
slide 8
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Market and demand
forecasting
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
• Historical projection: ARMA, ARIMA, etc.
• Analogy with other demands
• Evolutionary (grow lifecycle)
• Causal on originating factors
• Scenarios (alternatives and feasibility)
• Visionary (imagination)
July 2006
slide 9
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
Teletraffic
Methodology
• Statistical flow modeling for arrival rates and
holding times
• Capacity models based on stochastic processes:
Analytical and Simulation
• Dimensioning based on efficiency and QoS
• Good founding on the multiple contributions
from the International community (ITC)
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 10
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Main supporting pillars
Operational Research
and optimization
NETWORK PLANNING METHODOLOGY
•
Linear programming
method of “simplex”
•
Non linear modeling
procedures based on gradients
•
Flow Optimization
critical path, maximum flow, etc.
•
Combinatorial processess
•
Iterative processess
decisión by succesive comparisons
•
Heuristic procedures
hybrid with emphasis on constraints
"branch and bound”
and equipment characteristics
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 11
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Typical activities (1)
– 1) Problem and Network Partitioning to reduce
complexity
– 2) Data Gathering to match real needs
– Geo- scenarios
– Existing Network & carried services
– Current Performance and waiting lists
– 3) Demand Forecasting and traffic characterization
– 4) Definition of Solution Alternatives
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 12
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Typical activities (2)
– 5) Mapping best alternatives to requirements in
coverage and technologies
– 6) Nodes/Links Design, Location and Dimensioning
– 7) Network Costing in CAPEX and OPEX
– 8) Optimization for routing and deployment
– 9) Sensitivity Analysis to demand level, QOS, etc.
– 10) Documentation of Network Plan and deployment
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 13
Requirements for decision making and planning
Scope: Dimensions
•
By Time
Short, Medium,Long term
•
By Level of Detail
Strategic/Business/Network/NE
•
By Network Layer
Service layer up to Infrastructure
•
By Network Segment
Access,Metro, Core, end-to-end
•
By Technology
PSTN,SDH, Radio, ATM, IP, etc
•
By Service
POTS, Data, LL, Video, etc
By Solution
July 2006
Combination of the previous for a Project
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 14
Requirements for decision making and planning
Strategic view
Key decisions to guide the overall network
structure, services and technologies:
• Role and market segments
within competition
• Main evolution for technologies
and architectures. NGN
• Solution mapping per scenario
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 15
Requirements for decision making and planning
Strategic Planning: Role in competition
• Selection of market segments: economy of scale
• “Make” versus “outsource” decision
• Policy on revenues and financing
• Partnership selection
• Priorities definition
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 16
Requirements for decision making and planning :
Evolution on Technology and architecture
• Technological alternatives: Which, When and Where
• Architecture at core and access segments
• Operation support applications
• Planned evolution steps
• Convergence strategy
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 17
Requirements for decision making and planning :
Solution Mapping
• Characterize variety of geo-scenarios within the country
• Define parameters for scenario and solutions
• Techno-economical evaluation to select best Cost of Ownership
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 18
Requirements for decision making and planning
Solution Mapping: Methodology
Compliance
• Services
• Capacities
• Availability
• Operational
constraints
Projects/
Geo-scenarios
Input criteria
Techno-economical
Evaluation
• Architecture
• Density
• Capital expenditure
• NPV of full costs
• Entry costs
Selected
Scenarios
Network
Models
Mapping
Technical
Solutions
July 2006
Mapping
Economical
Solutions
Results
Qualifiers
• Flexibility
• Speed to service
• Evolution
• Experience
Actions
Selected
Network
Solutions
Mapping
Qualified
Solutions
Recommendations
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 19
Requirements for decision making and planning
Solution Mapping: Cost Modeling
OPERATING COSTS
CAPITAL COSTS
FULL COSTS
July 2006
=
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Electronic equipment
Cables
Civil works
Licenses, permits
Installation
Replacement
Customer premises
equipment
+
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
• Rights of way
• Space rental
• Operations and
maintenance
• Power
• Management and
salaries
• Cost of inventory
• Marketing campaigns
• Overheads
slide 20
Requirements for decision making and planning
Solution Mapping: Example of Geo Scenarios
Suburban
L1
L2
Metropolitan
L5
L4
L3
Villages
Rural clusters
L1: Distance between suburban
L2: Suburban - metropolitan distance
L3: Suburban - village distance
July 2006
L4: Distance between villages
L5: Distance between rural
slide 21
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping
Technological alternatives at access (Fixed)
Wireline
Narrowband
(up to 144 Kbit/s)
Direct: POTS /ISDN
Point to Multipoint
Wireless
RSU: POTS /ISDN
Satellite-Bidirectional
Multiservice DLC (FTTC)
xDSL
PLC
Access
Technologies
Wireline
SDH/SONET Add Drop Mux
FTTB/APON/EPON
Ethernet
Broadband
CATV(HFC)
WiMAX/MMDS/WIP
WLAN
Wireless
LMDS
Satellite-Bidirectional
DBS/DBT
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 22
Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping
Investment Splitting in Greenfield Access
Network Cost Composition
for overlay PSTN and Data
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+ Aerial)
4%
Infrastructure (OSP) Cost
Composition
(Metropolitan 1 node Ducts+Aerial)
5% 5%
4%
12 %
51 %
74%
OSP
PSTN access
25 %
13 %
Primary
Secondary
Civil Works
PSTN core
DATA Overlay
Engineering
Management
Transport
July 2006
7%
slide 23
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning: Solution Mapping
Investment sensitivity to density in WL Access
High density areas
300
Monetary units
250
Metrop. total
200
Metrop. infrastructure
150
Sub. infrastructure
Sub. total
100
50
2 355
2 477
2 235
2 112
1 990
1 870
1 747
1 625
1 381
1 504
1 259
1 139
894
1 016
774
651
529
0
Density (subscribers per KM²)
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 24
Requirements for planning:
planning: Solution Mapping
Solution selection per customer density
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
Monetary 3 000
units 2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Technology A
Technology B
Technology C
7 10 13 17 20
23 27 30 33 37 40
HDSL with LLU access
Density of lines (2Mbps per km^2)
July 2006
slide 25
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Requirements for planning:
planning: Solution Mapping
TechnoTechno-economical Recommendation
Multiservice
and DSLAM
xDSL
8000
High
density
1000
Switching based
access (RSU)
1000
Quantitative Dif. < 10%
200
Low
density
20
- Low
clustering
0.5
CATV/HFC
Overlap area
Medium
density
- High 200
clustering
APON/FTTH
Wireless Access
Narrowband
“Qualitative assignment”
assignment”
Wireless Access
Wideband/BB
Fixed GSM
Satellite
Satellite
Cust./Km2
Services
&Traffic
July 2006
POTS/Fax
POTS/ISDN/Data
POTS/Data nx64
POTS/data/Video
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
Multimedia BB
slide 26
Requirements for decision making and planning
Reference benefits
• Adequate definition of customer segments, services and
business to ensure efficient operation in competition
• Anticipation of 2 to 3 years in the positive IRR
• Saving factors of 20% to 200 % by best
solution/technology mapping in the access segment
• Additional gains between 20 to 40 % by topology/routing
optimization
July 2006
ITU/BDT Requirements and Role of Network Planning - O.G.S.
slide 27