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Lessons learnt from assessing ecoefficiency in the field of electric
mobility
STOA Lunch Debate
Brussels, May 07, 2013
Rainer Zah, Quantis
Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler + Partner
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From Hype to Analysis
Again and again: hoping for new mobility technologies that
are sustainable without need for changing behavior:
– Electric cars of the 90ies
– Natural gas cars
– Hybrid cars
– Hydrogen cars
– Electric cars of today
… but emobility is not THE solution…
 When is emobility part of the solution („opportunity“),
when is it part of the problem („risk“)?
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Scope of the study
 Future development of cars, power supply and user behavior for the years
2012, 2020, 2035 und 2050.
 eMobility = electric engine + >50% power from grid: H2-cars and hybrids are
excluded
Combustion engine
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Methods
Future development of car components (Literature study)
Future development of power supply (Gov. Scenarios)
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars (LCA)
Emobility penetration model (ABM)
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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energy density on battery level (Wh/kg)
Batteries as key factor
for emobility penetration
range?
500km
150km
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Costs on battery level ($/kWh)
Potential development of battery costs
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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Development of Life Cycle GHG Emissions
80%
<10%
greenhouse gas emissions compact-cars (kg CO2-eq/km)
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The role of the electricity mix
BEV; certified eco-power, CH, real
BEV; governmental scenario, CH, real
BEV; consumer mix, CH, real
BEV; natural gas power plant , EU, real
BEV; consumer mix, EU, real
BEV; coal power plant , EU, real
ICE; EU-goal 2025, 70g/km CH, NEDC
ICE; EU-goal 2025, 70g/km CH, real
ICE; Canadian oil sands CH, real
Greenhouse gas emissions (g CO2-eq./km)
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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Many forecasts are higher then the technical production
capacity of electric cars!
vEK2011: Szen. 1
80%
vEK2011: Szen. 2
vEK2011: Szen. 3
70%
B2009: Baseline-Szen.
60%
B2009: Szen. teure Energie
B2009: Szen. EV-Subventionen
50%
Alpiq (2009)
40%
ZB2010: konservatives Szen.
ZB2010: optimistisches Szen.
30%
asa (2011): mittleres Szen.
20%
asa (2011): hohes Szen.
Shell (2009): Trend-Szen.
10%
Shell (2009): alternatives Szen.
0%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Produktionskapazität
Maximum global production capacity
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Percentage sales
Electric mobility will never reach 100%;
Co-existence with ICE cars even after 2050
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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How are GHG emissions developing?
Greenhouse gas
emissions of the
Swiss individual
car fleet relative
to 2012
Lessons learnt…
 Focus on efficiency for all cars: positive impacts on all
aspects. Indirect support of electric mobility. Reduces risk for
wrong incentives
 From mineral oil tax to road tax: start smooth transition
soon. This supports also mixed mobility for long distance
driving.
 Focus on recycling: improve component reuse and recycling
of lithium and rare metals from electeric cars.
 Rebound effects: equal taxes per km. Continue with taxes
for possessing a car (even a small car).
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free access:
www.ta-swiss.ch
Project team Ernst Basler + Partner AG
Dr. Peter de Haan,
Denise Fussen,
Dr. Katrin Bernath,
Frank Bruns
Project team EMPA Dübendorf
Dr. Rainer Zah,
Marcel Gauch,
Dr. Hans-Jörg Althaus,
Dr. Patrick Wäger,
Rolf Widmer
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