Download Phylogenetic structures in the macro

气候变化对植物分布与多样性的影响
Climate Change Impacts on Plant Distribution and Diversity
Zhiheng Wang (王志恒)
[email protected]
15.05.2014 @ PKU, Beijing
Department of Ecology
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
Peking University
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
What’s macroecology (宏观生态学)
Deep-time climate changes and plant evolution
Impacts of climate changes since the LGM on plant
diversity
Threats of global warming in 20th and 21st centuries on
plant diversity
一、宏观生态学(macroecology)
Science 1989
Central question: mechanisms of
patterns in life distribution and
diversity in space and time
Scale: regional –> global
Methods: hypothesis testing +
quantitative statistics + comparative
phylogenetics
1995
James H. Brown
Macroecology is young, but it is one of most active
sub-disciplines of ecology.
宏观生态学是生态学中年轻、但最活跃的分支之一
宏观生态学(macroecology)
Journal of Biogeography (IF: 4.9)
Ecography (IF: 5.1)
Global Ecology & Biogeography (IF: 7.2)
Diversity & Distributions (IF: 6.1)
影响因子
Major Journals for macroecology:
年份
Beck et al. 2012
宏观生态学
生物地理学
学科基础
生态学
地理学
研究内容
物种分布和多样性格局的形成机制
物种和多样性的地理格局
生物分布与环境和进化的关系
生物分布的格局与样式
定量
定性
侧重点
方法
Global climate changes
Sea surface temperature changes
Eocene climatic optimum
(55 ma)
Mid-Cretaceous Greenhouse
(90-100 ma)
Clarke et al. 1999. Geology
Global climate changes
Quaternary
(2.3 ma)
Age
(Ma)
Eocene-Oligocene
transition (34 ma)
Eocene climatic
optimum (55 ma)
Temperature (℃)
Zachos et al. 2001. Science, 292, 686-693
Climate change impact on species diversity
Long-term
geological
history
1-100
Ma
Long-term
geological
history
< 1 Ma
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
√
√
√
√
√
industrial
1-100
√
evolution
years
• Fossil
records and
paleontological methods
Short-term
current
1-100
√
century
years
• DNA
data and comparative
phylogenetic methods
Short-term
√
√
Deep-time climatic optimum and plant diversification
Global speciation rate of plants
based on fossil evidence
Crepet et al. 2009. Am J Bot
extinct sp.
new sp.
Deep-time climatic optimum and plant diversification
Jaramillo et al. 2010. Science
Eocene-Oligocene transition
Age
(Ma)
Eocene-Oligocene
transition (34 ma)
Temperature (℃)
Zachos et al. 2001. Science, 292, 686-693
Eocene-Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma)
Eocene-Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma)
Zanazzi et al. 2007 Nature
Effects of Eocene-Oligocene transition
Global mammal extinction
Fossil records of North European
mammals
33.4 Ma
young
old
Eocene–Oligocene extinction event
Grande Coupure (great break)
Hooker et al. 2004. J Geolog Soc
Effects of Eocene-Oligocene transition
Plant molecular evolutionary rate
Rhododendron
Quercus
Evolution of Rhododendron
Zhiheng Wang, Xiaoting Xu, Peking Univ., China
Dimitar Dimitra, Oslo Univ., Norway
Alexandre Antonelli, Univ. of Gothenburg, Sweden
Katsuhiro Nakao, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Japan
Alexandra Muellner-Riehl, Univ. of Leipzig, Germany
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Species diversity: c.a. 900 sp; c.a. 550 sp in China
Distribution: Northern Hemisphere
Diversification
Originated in late Cretaceous to early Paleogene (50-70 mya)
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Sequence data from GenBank
388 species
16 genes: atpB-rbcL, rbcL, matK, ndhF,
psbA-trnH, trnL-F, trnL, trnT-trnL, trnStrnG, ITS, RPB2I-1, RPB2I-2, RPB2I-3,
RPB2I-4, RPB2I-5, RPB2I-6
Substitution rate
Evolutionary rate of
Rhododendorn
Age (Ma)
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Question: What’s the mechanism of the high Rhododendron
species diversity?
Hypothesis:
1) It has been believed that the rapid
diversification of Rhododendron was
enhanced by the rise of Tibetan Plateau at
ca. 30 – 40 Ma.
Age
(Ma)
2) Global climate shifted from Eocene
greenhouse to Oligocene icehouse at 34 Ma.
Cool climate led to the expansion of temperate
vegetation, and then the diversification of
Rhododendron.
EoceneOligocene
transition
(34 ma)
Temperature (℃)
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Expectation of Hypothesis 1
Evolutionary rate is high during the period of the collision between Indian
subcontinent and Eurasia, and the clades originated in association with the
collision (those in southwest China) have high evolutionary rate.
Expectation of Hypothesis 2
Evolutionary rate is high during the period of the collision between Indian
subcontinent and Eurasia, and the clades experienced high climatic changes
(those in the north) have high evolutionary rate.
Biogeography of Rhododendron
Substitution rate
Molecular evolutionary rate of
different clades
Clade 1
Clade 2
Clade 3
Clade 4
34 Ma
Age (Ma)
Clade 5
Clade 6
Clade 7
Evolution of Quercus
Xiaoting Xu, Peking Univ., China
Dimitar Dimitra, Oslo Univ., Norway
Global pattern of oak (Quercus) diversity
北温带森林的优势树种
ca. 450 spp., 407 spp. included
186本植物志、数据库和发表文献
进化速率与栎属物种多样性分化
分子进化速率的时间变化
序列

序列alignment：mafft -一致性序列构建（consensus sequences)
进化树构建

Maximum likelihood method
RAxML-HPC version 7.4.2
定年

Beast 1.7.4
化石校正
Supermatrix: 11 genes, 40 × 9528
Gaps：小于50%
linked Clock model
栎属分子进化速率的时间变化
11 genes
40 sp.× 9528 bp
缺失数据：<50%
BESAT: Link Clock
model
Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Extinction
Dispersal
√
√
√
Long-term
geological
history
1-100
Ma
Long-term
geological
history
< 1 Ma
√
√
Short-term
industrial
evolution
1-100
years
√
√
Short-term
current climate
1-100
√
Quaternary
change
century
yearsthe Last Glacial Maximum
Climate
change since
√
Modeled distribution and population size of
megafauna species at 42, 30, 21 and 6 kyr BP.
Effective population size
Effective population size was estimated
by population genetic methods based on
ancient DNA.
Lorenzen, et al. 2011. Nature
Influences of climate change since the
LGM on Chinese woody plant diversity
Yaoqi Li
Xiaoting Xu
Zhiheng Wang
Data of plant distributions
From “Database of China’s Woody Plants (v2.0)”
● compiled from more than 320 national and provincial floras,
many local floras and specimen records
● examined by 21 local experts of plants
● c.a. 6 years
● Taxonomy: Flora of China (English version)
● Specimen records + observation data
● Species number: 11405
Specimen records
observation data
Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
Anomaly of mean annual temperature
since the LGM
Modern climate
Mean winter temperature
Anomaly = LGM MAT – Modern MAT
Precipitation
Temperature
LGM climate data was hindcasted by Community
Climate System Model (CCSM).
Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
Method: Geographically weighted
regression (GWR)
Local R2 of temperature anomaly
Local R2 of modern climate
Climate change impacts on Chinese plant diversity
R2 difference
Anomaly – MAT
Anomaly – winter T
Anomaly – MAP
Temperature change since
the LGM explains more
richness variation than
modern climate in
southeastern China.
Principal component analysis of modern climate
Energy: MAT + Bio4(Temperature Seasonality ) + PET
R2 of water PC 1
R2 of energy PC 1
Water: MAP + Bio15(Precipitation Seasonality) + AET
Energy PC 1
Anomaly 80.22%
energy
PCof1total
variance
Water PC 1
86.67% of
Anomaly
- total
water
PC 1
variance
Temperature change since the LGM explains more richness variation
than modern climate in southeastern China.
Influences of climate change since
the LGM on Chinese vegetation
Siyang Wang
Zhiheng Wang
Data: 1) 1:1,000,000 vegetation map
2) LGM climate data was hindcasted by Community Climate
System Model (CCSM).
Method: species distribution models
LGM & pollen data
steppe
Broadleaved
evergreen/warm mixed
forest
desert
temperate
deciduous forest
taiga
Modern
LGM
Transformation
LGM
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5 V6 V7 V8 V9 V10 V11 V12 V13 V14 V15 V16 V17 V18 V19 V20 V21 V22
modern
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
>=40%
>=10% <40%
<10%
* Substantial contraction: tropical rainforest and monsoon forest, temperate
needleleaf-broadleaf mixed forest, temperate deciduous scrub
Forests move northward since
the LGM
modern distrib
LGM distrib.
LGM distrib.
Veget1: Cool and temperate
coniferous forest
Veget6: Temperate
deciduous forest
Steppe and desert contracted
Veget16: temperate
steppe
veget22: alpine tundra
Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Dispersal
√
√
< 1 Ma
√
√
industrial
evolution
1-100
years
√
√
current
century
1-100
years
√
√
Long-term
geological
history
1-100
Ma
Long-term
geological
history
Short-term
Short-term
√
Extinction
Recent climate change
IPCC report V, 2013
Recent climate change
IPCC report V, 2013
Plants track climate change
period 1: 1905-1985
period 2: 1985-2005
Lenoir et al. 2008. Science
Plant species move upward
along French Alpine
Speed: 29 m/decade
Plants track climate change
Plant traits affect moving speed
Lenoir et al. 2008. Science
Plants track climate change
Spider
Butterfly
Ground
beetles
Grasshopper
Northern boundary of
species distribution moves
northward in UK.
Speed: 16.9 km/decade
Chen et al. 2011. Science
Species diversity changes in Changbai Mts.
Time period: 1963 – 2006
Species diversity declined at the same
environment.
Climate change impact on species diversity
Speciation
Dispersal
√
√
< 1 Ma
√
√
industrial
evolution
1-100
years
√
√
current
century
1-100
years
√
√
Long-term
geological
history
1-100
Ma
Long-term
geological
history
Short-term
Short-term
√
Extinction
5 Ongoing project
Threats of climate change on woody plant diversity
Global temperature change
Source: National Climatic Data Center, US
China temperature change
Source: Wang et al. 2010
Global warming changes the habitat, growth,
phenology and distribution ranges of
organisms, and may lead to migration or
extinction
How climate change influences plants
in China
?
Current and future climate data
Source and variables
•
•
•
From the WorldClim
website
Resolution: 2.5 × 2.5 arc
min
Variables: Bio1 – Bio19
Current climate
Precipitation
Temperature
Scenarios of future climate
•
•
•
A1B: maximum energy requirements, balance
across fuel sources
A2: high energy requirements
B2: lower energy requirements
Climate in 2080 (A2)
Climate change
Model calibration
Models
1) Generalized linear model (GLM) with binomial residuals
2) Maximum entropy (Maxent)
3) Classification tree (CT)
Variable selection
1) Stepwise regression using GLM for a species Si: forward + backward
2) Select a subset of variables for Si based on Akaike information criterion (AIC)
3) The selected subset of variables were used for Maxent and CT
Species selection
Species with range size > 20 grid cells
7437 species in total
modeled species
all species
Vulnerable vs. benefited areas
Present richness patterns
(1950 – 2000)
Projections in 2080 – 2100
A1B
A2
最大能量消耗
能源均衡发展
高能量消耗
B2
低能量消耗
Projected species richness patterns
Results
1. Vulnerable areas:
central to east and south
China
2. Benefited areas:
Tibetan Plateau
Wang el al. in preparation
Changes in species richness
Decline
No change
Increase
Projected species movement
Elevation change
Latitude change
Predicted species dispersal
North
Daxing’an
Present
North
Taihang
Future
Changbai
Kunlun-Qilian
Wuyi
Hengduan
Based on the second threshold method
Acknowledgements
Prof. Jingyun Fang
Prof. Bernhard Schmid
Prof. Carsten Rahbek
Dr. Xiaoting Xu
Dr. Zhiyao Tang
Dr. Yining Liu
Dr. Xiujuan Qiao
Dr. Zhaodi Guo
Dr. Luying Tang
The 21 experts who reviewed
the species distribution data
Thank you for your attention
Two periods of climatic optimum
Eocene climatic optimum
(55 ma)
Mid-Cretaceous Greenhouse
(90-100 ma)
Bowen et al. 2004. Science