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European North Sea Energy Alliance Working together to create a sustainable and secure energy future 2014 Contents Introduction 03 The EU climate targets and energy market conditions 04 Factors changing energy market conditions 05 The energy challenges 05 North Western Europe, the centre of the energy challenges 06 The ENSEA project 07 Results so far 08 Activities of common interest 09 Technological ‘lighthouse’ themes Next steps 10 12 Introduction The energy supply system of the future will be characterized by a number of features that will make it fundamentally different from its current form. Firstly, an increasing share of energy is generated from renewable resources which are difficult to control. Secondly, more energy will be locally generated through cogeneration, biomass, green gas and local renewable sources of energy (decentralized energy production). This poses additional challenges to matching supply and demand of power. The current energy system is not capable of balancing fossil energy resources with the rising share of renewables and decentralized energy production. Currently it is not possible to store power in a cost-effective way. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on energy systems integration rather than on specific renewable energy sources to enable the efficient use of energy resources in the future. Concluding, the rising share of fluctuating and decentralized power production has to be stabilized within the electricity grid by the use of quick regulating power plants, especially gas power plants which use biogas in addition to natural gas to serve as back up. Additional storage systems will be necessary to ensure a constant supply. To manage the decentralized components an energy management system in a smart grid is required. These innovations require a holistic view of the energy system. Through interregional cooperation of Scottish, Norwegian, German and Dutch energy clusters the ‘European North Sea Energy Alliance’ (ENSEA) focuses on integrated energy systems within and around the North Sea. This holistic approach not only focuses on the technological and policy related aspects but also takes into account enabling and interrelated aspects like economic, regulatory and social acceptance issues. After several thorough analyses on energy innovation of the ENSEA regions and the North Sea region as a whole, the consortium has developed a joint action plan to enhance cooperation and contribute to integrated energy systems. This brochure provides information on the most important aspects of these plans in the form of thematic areas of focus. These vary from the above mentioned enabling programme themes to technological lighthouse themes such as hydropower, green decommissioning, power-to-gas and energy systems integration governance and planning. In order to achieve progress and the implementation of the enabling and thematic areas of focus, the ENSEA consortium is looking for your ideas and support. Join us to make it happen. Dr. Koos Lok ENSEA Project Coordinator 03 The EU climate targets and energy market conditions In 2009, through the ‘climate and energy package’, the European Union (EU) committed itself to ambitious climate change and sustainable energy targets for 2020. The package ‘20-20-20 targets’ sets three key objectives. Although the EU is making good progress towards meeting these targets, a clear, continuing policy framework for the period up to 2030 was needed. Such a framework would be beneficial for increasing regulatory certainty for investors, and for ensuring a coordinated approach among Member States. As a result, in 2014, the European Commission proposed a policy framework to drive continued progress towards a low-carbon economy; by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 40%, and increasing the share of renewables to 27%. The proposal aims to build a competitive and secure energy system that; • ensures affordable energy for all consumers; • increases the security of the EU’s energy supplies; • reduces the dependence on energy imports; and • creates new opportunities for growth and jobs. In addition, the European Commission’s 2050 roadmap for a low carbon economy proposes an 80% reduction (compared to 1990 levels) in EU greenhouse gas 04 emissions through domestic reductions alone. Factors changing energy market conditions Energy and climate change policies, aimed at supporting energy transition, are important drivers of changing energy market and investment conditions. However, many other factors cause the energy system to be in a continuous state of flux. Examples of the these factors include rapidly developing energy technologies such as; the increase in unconventional gas exploration (especially in North America); the rapid increase in decentralised energy production; changing geopolitical conditions; the efforts to create a truly integrated European energy market, and various policy measures related to nuclear energy and nonclimate change environmental issues. The energy challenges Coupled with various changes that the European energy system is facing, climate change targets have inspired the rapid energy transition. This has resulted in serious problems arising through attempts to reconcile the multiple goals of delivering energy in sustainable, secure and affordable ways. These challenges will need to be addressed and tackled, both separately and jointly, to secure a well-functioning energy system in Europe as this is one of the key conditions for sustainable social and economic progress. The following provides examples of new problems that have emerged in the European energy system during the last decade: • the increasing difficulty of balancing the power grid and preventing extreme power price volatility; • the organisation of sufficient back-up energy sources with a solid business-case is becoming a growing concern in Europe; • the considerably weakened financial position of traditional large energy producers in the EU has reduced their energy investment and innovation potential; • the increasing prominence of public or community opposition in relation to many new forms of energy investment; • the subsidy schemes, which have been levelled-off on the retail energy users, can cause energy prices to rise to sometimes unaffordable levels; and • the increasing distances between energy supply and demand require formidable additional grid investment for which it is not easy to find funding. 05 North Western Europe, the centre of the energy challenges Many of the challenges the EU energy system is facing are strongly felt in North Western Europe (United Kingdom, Scandinavia (Finland excluded), Germany, Benelux and France) and the North Sea area in particular. Firstly, 70-75% of all primary EU (plus Norway) energy production and production from other fossil and renewable sources, comes from North Western Europe. This is the equivalent of some 760 million tons of oil p.a. (as of 20111). Just over 60% of the energy demand of the EU and Norway, comes from the same region2. Thus, the energy system of North Western Europe represents some two thirds of Europe’s and 6% of the world’s energy system. Secondly, North Western Europe can be viewed as a hotspot of energy transition as few regions deal with such rapid changes in energy policy-setting, energy technology development and the energy mix. For instance, North Western Europe faces a rapid decline in nuclear capacity, on one hand, and a rapid build-up of renewable capacity on the other. A striking energy transition development is taking place in the North Sea where, during the next few decades, some 600 oil and gas platforms will have to be dismantled because exploration and production of fossils is ending. In addition, during the same period, renewable offshore wind capacity, of the order of 50-100GW, is scheduled to be installed in the same area. This constitutes a massive demonstration of energy transition and energy innovation. Similarly, in the regions around the North Sea innovative renewable and traditional energy production capacity is extending rapidly. 06 1 European Commission, EU energy in figures, Statistical Pocketbook 2013, p. 33. | 2 European Commission, EU energy in figures, p. 71. The ENSEA project Given the various challenges North Western Europe is facing in the energy system, and the central role of the North Sea area in Europe’s energy transition, a number of parties from this area decided to collaborate on establishing a region of knowledge around the North Sea with a primary focus on dealing with the energy transition challenges mentioned. To that end, in October 2012, a three-year EU-funded collaborative initiative was started to establish and develop the ‘European North Sea Energy Alliance’ (ENSEA). The participating parties represent the ‘triple-helix’: organisations of the public, business and academic energy sectors from the Northern Netherlands, North West Lower-Saxony, South West Norway, and Scotland.3 The network will be extended via associated partnerships of other interested triple-helix parties from the North Sea region. According to its mandate, the ENSEA project “aims to increase the competitiveness of research-driven energy clusters through better coordination and exploitation of research to support innovation in Energy Systems Integration”. So, to enable the use of resource-efficient energy sources ENSEA will focus on a holistic system integration approach to exchange competences within different fields of expertise while combining technical, economic and societal aspects on an international level. The figure below shows the cross cutting themes of system integration in which the participating regions have significant experience in regards to research and industry. RTD Economic feasibility Legal issues Social issues Balancing EV / Ems Achse / Scotland EV / Rogaland Ems Achse / EV Ems Achse / EV / Rogaland Back up Ems Achse / EV / Rogaland EV / Rogaland Ems Achse / EV Ems Achse / EV / Rogaland Storage Rogaland / Scotland Rogaland Ems Achse Rogaland / Ems Achse EV / Ems Achse / Scotland Ems Achse / EV Ems Achse / EV Ems Achse / Rogaland Infrastructure 3 For further information see www.ensea.biz 07 Results so far As a result of ENSEA activities since October 2012, the ENSEA region’s energy innovation capabilities and potential have been characterised (in terms of analysis of their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), as well as the regional and inter-regional visions and policies for a more integrated energy future. Using this as a basis, a portfolio of regional energy innovation plans has been collated and developed, including developing regional innovation implementation strategies, and outline regional action plans. The combining and analysis of these four regional reviews has produced an overall portfolio of some 160 areas of project ideas. An overall impression, emerging from the inventory of activities and plans, clearly indicated that energy innovation is not only booming in all the four regions but moreover, is growing rapidly. It also, however, has become clear that coordination of such activities around the North Sea is still poor, and that energy transition challenges are becoming big. It already affects Europe as a whole to such an extent, that substantially more collaboration between various energy players will be required to resolve the current energy issues. These issues include: resolving power grid balancing challenges due to the rapidly increasing role of intermittent power supply; energy price instability and negative prices; increasing need for grid investment; substantial gas-fired power production capacity standing idle; increasing role for coal and lignite contributing to larger emissions; energy prices undermining EU competitiveness versus United States. In fact, recent evidence has made it abundantly clear that the time for partial and regional/ national energy solutions has passed. In its place, there is a need for energy systems solutions, based on international collaboration with parties in the North Sea region. The following figure serves to illustrate the complexity of an integrated energy system. It shows how renewable energy sources are converted into power, and how such power can be stored for use in other forms of energy at the appropriate moment of time. In fact the power system and gas system are integrated to allow for an optimal energy system in terms of storage, balancing and allocation to further use. 08 Decentral Energy Distribution Central Energy Social Acceptance Wind Energy Wave and Tidal Energy Solar Energy Blue Energy H2 Storage Energy Systems Integration CO2 Capturing Biomass or Biogas Methanation CH4 Infrastructure Electricity Grid E-Home Sustainable Communities Consumption + Production Infrastructure Gas Grid Smart City Gas GH4 Storage Prosumer Social Acceptance Activities of common interest enabling ‘lighthouse’ themes In the ENSEA work also a beginning has been made of identifying cluster activities which are of common interest, provide opportunities for exchange of best practice, learning and future cooperation. Such cluster activities will in the following be indicated as the enabling ENSEA ‘lighthouse’ themes. With ‘enabling’ we mean that such joint activities typically relate to triple-helix conditions for integrated joint investment activity in and around the North Sea area. Examples, to be worked out later in greater detail, are: • programs for educational collaboration and exchange between the various energy knowledge centres around the North Sea (estimated number in the ENSEA regions about 50); • accelerate innovation by facilitating increased interaction and cooperation within and between regional SME networks around the North Sea; • setting up networks of sustainable communities around the North Sea aiming at participation and consumer engagement; • setting up a joint research pool via PhD and other research staff exchange programs and by executing e.g. joint modelling work and jointly participating in North Sea pilot projects; and • setting up frameworks for energy cluster development and associated coordination and collaboration of various energy innovation related activities at the official level and/or under the auspices of the energy triple-helix cluster organisations in the various North Sea regions. Collectively such enabling ‘lighthouse’ themes, if implemented successfully, are expected to set a stage for true energy systems integration joint investment programs (see the so-called technological ‘lighthouse’ themes) both public and private. technological ‘lighthouse’ themes The ENSEA analysis, however, also has learned that a number of energy innovation challenges are so complex that without interregional and international collaboration, and without good collaboration not only within regional triple helix structures but also between various regional triple-helix structures, they simply cannot effectively be dealt with. Clear examples are: • how to optimally integrate hydro storage facilities and options into the overall North Sea energy system; • how to reconcile the anticipated decommissioning of the about 600 oil and gas platforms and related grids with the potential to use at least part of such infrastructure for modern renewable based energy and chemical activity in the relatively safe offshore area; • how to resolve the increasing power grid balancing challenge due to intermittent sources with the help of new storage options based on power-to-gas and related technology development; • how to optimally design - both in terms of spatial planning and of economics - the North Sea area power and gas grid, as well as wind farms and other energy related installations, taking into account differentials in national energy policies, public acceptance issues, legal boundaries, etc. The structures that will need to be set up to face the above mentioned challenges are the subject of the four technological ‘lighthouse’ themes of the ENSEA program. Although the list may not be exhaustive, collectively these four themes, if properly combined with the enabling themes mentioned earlier, are expected to make a serious contribution to better safeguarding affordable, sustainable and secure energy supply for a considerable part of the future European energy system. The choice of the four technological ‘lighthouse’ themes is related to the results of the ENSEA regional and interregional analyses. These are illustrated on the subsequent pages. 09 Technological ‘lighthouse’ themes Hydropower Rogaland provides the bulk of the hydropower capacity in Norway both from run-off river plants or conventional hydro electric plants. Moreover, Norway has almost fifty percent of total storage capacity in Europe (circa 80 TWh). Also Norway already has DC interconnectors from its South Western part leading to Denmark and the Netherlands enabling for power arbitrage with hydro energy thus contributing to grid balancing. There are plans for another interconnector to Denmark partly reserved for balancing services; interconnectors with Germany and the United Kingdom are foreseen to be constructed during the next five years. Like Norway, also Scotland has a mature and well-established hydropower industry with high capabilities and potential for expansion. Given the important role of hydro energy in balancing the power grid it is extremely important to utilize this potential in the best manner. Obviously power grid development across the North Sea linking hydro capacity with other energy sources will therefore need to be carefully coordinated with the various other energy and grid investments in the regions. Green decommissioning The financial reservations for decommissioning the various oil and gas platforms and related infrastructure in the North Sea are currently estimated at some €30-50 billion, but experience has learned that such amounts could easily be exceeded as time passes by. At the same time investments in offshore wind and related grid in the North Sea area are estimated to be a multitude of that amount. In other words in the North Sea area during the next few decades investments are likely to be in the order of a few hundreds of billions of Euros. At the same time public acceptance issues of all kind of new energy activity seem to rapidly increase, which may support the request for offshore rather than onshore new energy activity. This raises the issue if the decommissioning activity on the one hand and the green energy investment on the other hand can be intelligently combined for innovative energy production, conversion (powerto-gas) and large-scale storage activity. This could involve existing infrastructure that otherwise would be dismantled for new green energy activity like: combining available CO2 and H2 flows into synthetic/green methane, chemical conversion (methanol), storage of gases and chemicals for optimal application at the suitable market conditions, turning residual heat into biomass production (e.g. algae), using tidal and wave energy, combining large-scale chemical storage with hydro storage options and optimal grid management, economic and societal assessment of large-scale chemical storage. This way, traditional platforms for oil and gas exploration could be transformed into modern green energy conversion and storage facilities giving the old platforms a new life. Given the potential savings of such smart combinations it seems logical to investigate the potential of this green decommissioning option with one or a few North Sea international pilots that can be used for not only public illustration, but also for all kinds of joint research and training in which the ENSEA regions collectively have been demonstrated to excel. 10 4 Lund, Heinrick, Renewable Energy Systems: A Smart Energy Systems Approach to the Choice and Modelling of 100% Renewable Solutions, 2014 Elsevier North Sea power ring system There is increasing recognition that intermittent energy sources can only play a leading role in the European energy system if the grid balancing challenge they contribute to can be resolved. The development of storage technologies, for renewable energy, are likely to play a crucial role in solving that challenge. Except from the hydro option already mentioned, promising new storage options are power-to-gas, compressed air and batteries, which could be developed to complement existing storage technologies, such as for heat. If power-to-gas technology is to play a substantial role in storing renewable energy, the renewable-based electric system and (green) gas-based system will increasingly be integrated, both technically and economically, and will need to be increasingly coordinated with the heat-based systems and other storage options. This can be considered as a Smart Energy System4 (combination of Smart Electricity, Smart Gas and Smart Heat Grids). A major challenge will then be to optimise the system in terms of production, storage and transport, taking into account the costs and benefits of using electric, gas or heat related forms of energy. So far, pilots on power-to-gas or other storage options, have only been based on small-scale and regional pilots (an estimated 15 in the ENSEA region). However, if such storage options are to develop into a full blown component of our energy system, at some stage there will be a need for an interconnected North Sea electricity/gas/heat grid, (essentially, a North Sea Energy Ring/Smart Energy System), demonstrating grid connections and large-scale energy storage to balance power supply and demand. Therefore, North Sea pilots will have to be designed through joint action. Again given the expertise in the ENSEA region, the ENSEA programme is an appropriate framework to set the stage for such pilots. Energy systems integration modelling and governance All kinds of regional and national activities are currently initiated in the North Sea area. To illustrate, almost all North Sea countries have ambitious plans for initiating or extending offshore wind capacities such that the current about 4GW installed capacity is likely to grow at least tenfold within the next 15 years. The same applies for various initiatives for interconnectors, harbour facilities, etc. Because much of regulation, subsidies, licenses and other public conditions are still organized at the national level, there is at least a risk if not a threat that at the end of the day the resulting design will turn out to be sub-optimal both business wise, from the public acceptance perspective and in terms of spatial planning. In fact what seems to be lacking is not only a good public infrastructure for coordination, but also collaboration between the relevant private actors including SMEs. What also seems to be lacking is a good modelling base, that is to say a system of intelligent tools – either existing or newly developed ones – that models the actor interdependencies, can be used for simulation and find optimal solutions from various perspectives. Key issues that could then be addressed are, for instance, how particular energy technology mixes affect the energy system, the economy and the environment; or what the impact could be of specific market or technology energy transition policies and measures. Given the ENSEA specializations, it stands to reason that initiatives are designed that will support conditions for organizing such optimal decision-making. 11 Next steps The next phase of the ENSEA project is looking forward to realistic implementation based on business cases. Therefore we need to identify relevant themes within the European programmes for synergy purposes. This means: match the project theme challenges with current EU strategies; initiate further dialogue with the private, public and academic sector; investigate whether other EU initiatives could provide support and initiate a bottom-up process to develop a strategic roadmap on the implementation of the ENSEA joint action plan. This will lead to: • Establishment of a North Sea research association; • Strategic partnerships in the North Sea area; and • Establishment of a quadruple-helix structure5 at operational level in the North Sea area. The ENSEA Consortium invites you to join and make this happen. 5 The ‘quadruple-helix’: organisations of the public, business and academic energy sectors and society. This project is supported by the European Commission through the Seventh Framework Programme Center for sustainable energy solutions Website: www.ensea.biz | Twitter: @ENSEA2012 | LinkedIn: ENSEA – European North Sea Energy Alliance