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Symbol PM MZ M M0 MR MC MI ML MF BZ B a s p ` b fne N Definition Probability of microcephaly given Zika infection during the first trimester of pregnancy Zika-related microcephaly births in Northeast Brazil Microcephaly births during outbreak in Northeast Brazil Microcephaly births not related to Zika during outbreak in Northeast Brazil Reported microcephaly births during outbreak in Northeast Brazil Confirmed microcephaly births in Northeast Brazil Investigated microcephaly births in Northeast Brazil Microcephaly births reported thus far in Northeast Brazil Forecast of microcephaly births for remainder of outbreak in Northeast Brazil Births to mothers infected with Zika during period of risk in Northeast Brazil Births during outbreak in Northeast Brazil Zika attack rate Sensitivity of microcephaly reporting Microcephaly prevalence (per 10,000 births) Duration of outbreak in Northeast Brazil (days) Brazilian birth rate Fraction of Brazilian population in Northeast Brazil Brazilian population in 2015 Value Source MZ /BZ M − M0 sMR pB ML + MF [17] [17] [17] regression aB ` bfne N 365 [23, 24] MC /MI [18, 19] regression [22] [20] [21]
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