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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Observations and Climate Change on Local to Global Scales Britton Stephens National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington Baring Head – Southerly Interval CO2 Record Baring Head – Southerly Interval CO2 Record Oceans and land plants have provided a 50% climate discount, but future is unclear Outline: 1. Global climate change current observations and future risks 2. Carbon cycle observations emission verification and process understanding 3. Baring Head CO2 record Southern Ocean carbon fluxes 4. HIPPO Global aircraft campaigns Continental carbon fluxes H2O CO2 CH4 N2O O3 CFCs Without atmospheric greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth would be -18 °C or 0 °F The Global Carbon Cycle The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr –1. [IPCC, 2007] How warm is it going to get? Uncertainty due to climate models } Uncertainty due to trees and oceans [IPCC, 2007] Uncertainty due to people Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations U.S. National Research Council, 2010 Changes in the mean lead to changes in the extremes Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations U.S. National Research Council, 2010 Observed changes: Global air temperatures [IPCC, 2007 and references therein] Observed changes: New Zealand air temperatures [http://www.niwa.co.nz ] Observed changes: Spring snow [IPCC, 2007 and references therein] Observed changes: Arctic Sea-Ice Arctic Sea Ice in September [IPCC, 2007 and references therein] [Stroeve, et al., GRL, 2007; NSIDC, 2008] Observed changes: Sea-level [US NRC, 2010] Observed changes: Ocean Heat Content [IPCC, 2007 and references therein] [Murphy et al., JGR 2009] Observed changes: Glacier Retreat Glacier Bay, Alaska 1941 1988 [US NRC, 2010] Photos: USGS http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/ Observed changes: Ice-sheet Mass [Velicogna, GRL 2009] Observed changes: Polar bear weights [Stirling and Parkinson, Arctic, 2006] Observed changes: Lizard Extinctions Science 328, 894 (2010); Barry Sinervo, et al. Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches Observed changes: Spring bloom [Amano, Proc. Roy. Soc., 2010] Which of these will have the biggest impact, or will it be a surprise? [Nicholis and Cazenave, Science 2010] What does 1 m sea-level rise look like? What does 1 m sea-level rise look like? [Wellington City Council, 2009] Effects on New Zealand may have more to do with events elsewhere At risk coastal areas have: dense populations, low elevations, appreciable rates of subsidence, and/or inadequate adaptive capacity. Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations U.S. National Research Council, 2010 Effects on New Zealand may have more to do with events elsewhere Summary 1: What should we do? • Major decisions involve complex social, economic, and political factors • Nonetheless, many options/needs are quite clear • Conservation and energy efficiency • Renewable energy sources • CO2 capture and storage • Education • Prepare to adapt to climate changes The scale of the challenge is enormous Existing global infrastructure As a visual aid, dry ice is CO2 in solid form One 40 liter tank of gas produces 95 kg of CO2 Required emissions cuts well beyond current agreements Our ability to verify emissions is inadequate to support international treaties National Emission Estimate Uncertainties Source or Sink Method Present 5 Year Potential Fossil‐Fuel Combustion UNFCCC < 10 to 25 % < 10% Atmospheric Obs. and Models UNFCCC 50 to > 100 % < 10 to 50 % < 10 to 100 % < 10 to 50 % > 100 % 50 to > 100 % 10 to 100 % 10 ‐ 50 % Agriculture, Forestry, Land‐use Atmospheric Obs. and Models Satellite Obs. and Models Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements U.S. National Research Council, 2010 Our understanding of processes is inadequate to support prediction [IPCC, 2007] How well can we predict carbon-cycle feedbacks? (PgCyr-1) (PgCyr-1) C4MIP Projections [Friedlingstein, et al., J. Climate, 2006] In 2050, combined offsets have a range of 2.5 to 15 PgC/yr At $32/ton CO2, ± 6 PgC/yr = ± $700 Billion/yr The Southern Ocean will play a key role in future anthropogenic CO2 uptake, mediated by opposing influences [Gruber et al., GBC 2009] Direction and magnitude of response to increased circumpolar winds is uncertain ORCA-PISCES-T sea to air = positive UVic-ESCM [Zickfeld et al., Science 2008] [Le Quéré et al., Science 2007] Surface CO2 observations and knowledge of wind patterns can be used to make flux estimates Wealth of information in short-term variability Baring Head CO2 from August 2002 5-minute observations Steady Southerly Interval Steady intervals capture air from high-latitude Southern Ocean Updated automated data-processing system Summary 2 • Baring Head provides a valuable and unique record of CO2 changes in the Southern Hemisphere • Recent changes with respect to MLO and SPO are larger than expected • Atmospheric transport, local ocean fluxes, or unknown causes • Possibly still driving inverse result • Data during Northerlies may be useful for verifying New Zealand emissions Inverse models disagree by billions of tons C Dominant source of model error is vertical mixing [figure courtesy of Scott Denning] Observations are made primarily at the surface and by flasks • PIs: Harvard, NCAR, Scripps, NOAA, others • Global and seasonal survey of CO2, O2, CH4, CO, N2O, H2, SF6, COS, CFCs, HCFCs, O3, H2O, CO2 isotopes, Ar, black carbon, and hydrocarbons • NSF / NCAR Gulfstream V • 5 campaigns over 4 years • Continuous profiling from surface to 10 km, and to 15 km twice per flight • hippo.ucar.edu (also Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) Canterbury, New Zealand Pago Pago, American Samoa Brooks Range, Alaska NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V Jet (GV) (HIAPER = High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research) Aircraft Performance Maximum Range¹ Maximum Cruise Altitude Maximum Payload 6,500 nm 51,000 ft 6,500 lb 12,046 km 15,545 m 2,948 kg HIPPO1 CO2 Slices, 2009 Early January (southbound) Late January (northbound) HIPPO2 CO2 Slices, 2009 Early November (southbound) Late November (northbound) HIPPO3 CO2 Slices, 2010 Late March (southbound) Early April (northbound) NH Fall to Spring Build-up Preliminary CO2 model comparisons for HIPPO1 Observed ACTM GEOS-CHEM CarbonTracker – Jan. Mean NZ Other species provide key complementary information O2 CH4 CO SF6 Other species provide key complementary information H2O N2O O3 Black Carbon Summary 3 • HIPPO campaigns are defining large-scale gradients in CO2 and other species, and their progression through the seasons with unprecedented resolution • These observations have the potential to resolve on the order of 5 billion of tons of carbon flux uncertainty (20 billion tons CO2) Looking ahead: • Climate change is real, and poses significant risks to natural, economic, and political systems • Improved observations of atmospheric CO2 and improved models of atmospheric transport are necessary for prediction and verification • Baring Head measurements and analyses promise valuable insights • Additional New Zealand observing site(s) planned • Two more HIPPO campaigns will complete seasonal picture Wind direction and strength determines variability Lauder in-situ CO2 Measurements BHD – LDR up to 5 ppm during peak growth [will be presented by V. Sherlock] Where to site a third (or fourth CO2 instrument? Required • Line power • Shelter • Tower above local sources Highly desirable • Internet access • Local scientific staff • Regular visits by NIWA field team • Ancillary meteorological or ecosystem observations