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DEVELOPMENT, INEQUALITY, AND THE
CARBON INTENSITY OF HUMAN WELL-BEING:
PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABILITY?
Andrew Jorgenson
Professor
Department of Sociology
Environmental & Sustainability Studies Program
University of Utah
“Planetary Boundaries”
The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space.
The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable.
The boundaries in three systems have already been exceeded.
Sustainability Science
The Role of Sociology
• Mazur and Rosa,
Science (1974)
Rockstrom et al., Nature (2009)
Impacts Attributed to Climate Change
newstimeafrica.com/kenya-drought-effects-of-climate-change
Differences in human vulnerability and exposure arise from nonclimatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often
produced by uneven development processes. (IPCC 2014)
ASA Task Force on Climate Change
Volunteers raising awareness of rising sea levels in Malaysia
www.350.org
Outline for Rest of Talk
1. Established, Narrower Areas of Research
2. Newer, Integrated Approach
3. CIWB: What is it?
4. Economic Development  CIWB, Inequality  CIWB
5. Concluding Remarks
Economic Development  Human Well-Being
– e.g., Brady, Kaya, and Beckfield SCID (2007)
Economic Development  Environment
– e.g., Jorgenson and Clark, AJS (2012)
Inequality  Human Well-Being
– e.g., Babones, SS&M (2008)
Inequality  Environment
– e.g., Jorgenson, Social Problems (2003)
Environment
Economic Development  ------------------------Human Well-Being
Environment
Inequality  ------------------------Human Well-Being
One potential pathway towards climate change
mitigation and other sustainability efforts
involves reducing the carbon intensity of human
well-being (CIWB)
CIWB: the level of anthropogenic carbon
emissions per unit of human well-being (an
“adjusted” ratio)
– Numerator: anthropogenic CO2 emissions per capita
– Denominator: average life expectancy at birth
– Production-based emissions, consumption-based
emissions, EIWB
dot size is proportional to population; color shading by income
Roberts, Steinberger, Lamb, Dietz, Jorgenson, York, Givens, Baer, and Schor, under review
EIWB: blue boxplots are sample of developed nations; green boxplots are sample of developing nations
Jorgenson and Dietz, Sustainability Science (2015)
1
.8
.4
.6
CIWB
0
5
10
15
Carbon Emissions Per Capita
20
the correlation is -.0443; includes sample of 106 Nations (954 total observations)
Jorgenson, Nature Climate Change (2014)
Economic Development  CIWB ?
Inequality  CIWB ?
Multiple samples of nations (Overall, OECD,
Non-OECD, Regional)
‒ allows for investigating broad-based human / environment
relationships as well as those potentially situated within
narrower socioeconomic and regional contexts…
Baseline two-way fixed effects elasticity models
𝐶𝐼𝑊𝐵𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽1𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡
+ 𝛽2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1975𝑡 + . . . + 𝛽9 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2009𝑡 + 𝛽10 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡
∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1975𝑡 + … + 𝛽18 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡 ∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2009𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖
+ 𝑒𝑖𝑡
𝐶𝐼𝑊𝐵𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽1𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡
+ 𝛽2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1991𝑡 + . . . + 𝛽19 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2008𝑡 + 𝛽20 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡
∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1991𝑡 + … + 𝛽37 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡 ∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2008𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡
𝐶𝐼𝑊𝐵𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽1𝐼𝑛𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡
+ 𝛽2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1991𝑡 + . . . + 𝛽19 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2008𝑡 + 𝛽20 𝐼𝑛𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡
∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟1991𝑡 + … + 𝛽37 𝐼𝑛𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ∗ 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟2008𝑡
+ 𝛽38 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡
Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1970-2009
-.08
-.04
0
.04
.08
.12
(production-based emissions data)
1970
1975
Africa
1980
Asia
1985
1990
South and Central America
1995
2000
2005
2010
North America, Europe, and Oceania
Africa sample includes 36 nations; Asia sample includes 22 nations; South and Central America
sample includes 21 nations; North America, Europe, and Oceania sample includes 27 nations
Jorgenson, Nature Climate Change (2014)
Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008
0
.02
.04
.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
(consumption-based emissions data)
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
All Nations
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
OECD
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Non-OECD
All sample includes 69 nations; OECD sample includes 25 nations; Non-OECD sample includes 44 nations
Jorgenson and Givens, under review
Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008
-.08
-.06
-.04
-.02
0
.02
.04
.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
(consumption-based emissions data)
1990
1991
1992
OECD
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Non-OECD Africa
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Non-OECD Asia
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Non-OECD Latin America
OECD sample includes 25 nations; Non-OECD Africa sample includes 16 nations;
Non-OECD Asia sample includes 15 nations; Non-OECD Latin America sample includes 13 nations
Jorgenson and Givens, under review
Estimated Effect of Income Inequality on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008
-.05
0
.05
.1
.15
(consumption-based emissions data)
1990
1991
1992
OECD
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
OECD Lower Significance Threshold
1999
2000
2001
Non-OECD
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Non-OECD Lower Significance Threshold
OECD sample includes 22 nations; Non-OECD sample includes 41 nations
Jorgenson, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences (forthcoming)
Concluding Remarks
1. Sociology  Sustainability Science
2. The Findings And Their Implications
3. Limitations
4. Next Steps?
5. Scaling Down
Thanks!
New Research
Country-Level
Country-Level
Country-Level
Plant-Level
Plant-Level
Plant-Level
Plant-Level
Plant-Level
Plant-Level
NSF Funded Project: The Effects of Organizational, World Economic,
and World Society Factors on Power Plants CO2 Emissions
Over 25,000 power plants in almost 60 nations (multi-method)
Hypothesis: plants with high CO2 emission rates and levels share
certain combinations of organizational, world economic, and world
society structures and the effectiveness of national environmental
policies will depend on plants’ structural “profiles.”