Download City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change

City of Tshwane Vulnerability Assessment to
Climate Change
SACN Programme:
Climate change
Document Type:
Vulnerability Report
Document Status:
Draft Report
Date:
15 September 2014

Joburg Metro Building, 16th floor, 158 Loveday Street, Braamfontein 2017
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1
Table of Contents
Acronyms ................................................................................................................................................................ 1
Glossary .................................................................................................................................................................. 3
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 6
2
Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 9
3
Status quo overview .................................................................................................................................... 11
2.1
3.1.1
CoT Development Goals ............................................................................................................. 13
3.1.2
Drivers and pressures linked to climatic variables in the CoT .................................................... 14
3.1.3
Drivers and pressures linked to non-climatic factors in the CoT ................................................ 16
3.2
3.2.1
4
Mechanisms /instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation ..................................... 22
4.1
Stakeholder engagement methodology .............................................................................................. 24
4.2
Climate modelling methodology: bias-corrected projections from regional climate model .............. 24
4.3
Climate vulnerability, impact and risk assessment ............................................................................. 25
4.4
Adaptation options and adaptation plan methodology ...................................................................... 25
4.5
Monitoring, Reporting, Evaluation and Verification methodology ..................................................... 26
Limitations .................................................................................................................................. 26
Stakeholder Engagement ............................................................................................................................. 27
5.1
6
Regional Vulnerability Profiles ............................................................................................................ 16
Methodology................................................................................................................................................ 24
4.5.1
5
City of Tshwane ................................................................................................................................... 11
Identification and consultation of stakeholders and community ....................................................... 27
Projections of future climate change over Tshwane ................................................................................... 30
6.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 30
6.2
Summary of Findings ........................................................................................................................... 30
6.2.1
6.3
The present-day climate of Tshwane ......................................................................................... 30
Observed trends in the climate of Tshwane ....................................................................................... 33
6.4
A regional context for climate change over Tshwane: projections of future climate change over the
north-eastern parts of South Africa ................................................................................................................. 34
6.4.1
Projected changes in temperature over north-eastern South Africa ......................................... 34
6.4.2
Projected changes in rainfall over north-eastern South Africa .................................................. 35
6.5
6.5.1
Projected climate futures for Tshwane ............................................................................................... 37
Projected temperature and rainfall anomalies over time .......................................................... 37
2
7
6.5.2
Very hot days .............................................................................................................................. 38
6.5.3
Extreme rainfall events............................................................................................................... 39
Impacts and vulnerabilities .......................................................................................................................... 41
7.1
7.1.1
7.2
What are the key climate vulnerabilities in CoT? ....................................................................... 41
Environment ........................................................................................................................................ 42
7.2.1
Biodiversity ................................................................................................................................. 42
7.2.2
Biodiversity in the City of Tshwane ............................................................................................ 42
7.2.3
Threatened Ecosystems in the City of Tshwane ......................................................................... 43
7.2.4
Climate Change and Biodiversity ................................................................................................ 45
7.3
Water Resources ................................................................................................................................. 45
7.3.1
River Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................ 45
7.3.2
Water Management Areas ......................................................................................................... 46
7.3.3
Wetlands .................................................................................................................................... 47
7.3.4
Ground Water............................................................................................................................. 48
7.3.5
Climate change and water resources ......................................................................................... 49
7.4
Land cover ........................................................................................................................................... 51
7.4.1
Land cover in the City of Tshwane.............................................................................................. 51
7.4.2
Agriculture and Livelihoods ........................................................................................................ 52
7.5
Air Quality ........................................................................................................................................... 53
7.5.1
Air Quality in the City of Tshwane .............................................................................................. 53
7.5.2
Air Quality and Climate change .................................................................................................. 55
7.6
7.6.1
7.7
8
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 41
Extreme Events ................................................................................................................................... 55
Extreme Weather Events ............................................................................................................ 56
Social Vulnerability .............................................................................................................................. 60
7.7.1
Human settlements .................................................................................................................... 60
7.7.2
Social Vulnerability ..................................................................................................................... 63
7.7.3
Human health ............................................................................................................................. 64
Risk assessment and prioritisation............................................................................................................... 69
8.1
Findings: Risk Assessment and prioritisation ...................................................................................... 69
8.2
Prioritisation of key risks ..................................................................................................................... 70
8.3
Adaptations options for key sectors ................................................................................................... 71
3
8.4
Physical sectors ................................................................................................................................... 72
8.4.1
Natural Environment .................................................................................................................. 73
8.4.2
Air ............................................................................................................................................... 74
7.1.1
Water .......................................................................................................................................... 74
8.5
9
Social-economic sectors ...................................................................................................................... 75
8.5.1
Human health ............................................................................................................................. 75
8.5.2
Infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges and storm water drainage system) ...................................... 76
8.5.3
Energy ......................................................................................................................................... 76
8.5.4
Human settlements .................................................................................................................... 77
8.5.5
Social and economic development............................................................................................. 78
8.5.6
Disaster Management ................................................................................................................ 79
City of Tshwane Proposed Adaptation Action Plan ..................................................................................... 80
9.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 80
9.2
Linking the plan to key adaptation goals in the green economy framework ...................................... 81
9.3
Adaptation Actions for priority risks ................................................................................................... 83
9.3.1
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services .................................................................. 83
9.3.2
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand ..................................................................................... 84
9.3.3
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health ..................................... 84
9.3.4
Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges) ........................ 85
9.3.5
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity ................................................................................................... 86
9.3.6
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property due to
extreme weather events (floods and hailstorm) ......................................................................................... 87
9.3.7
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes ............................................................................................. 88
9.3.8
Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security .................... 88
9.3.9
Strategic adaptation actions ....................................................................................................... 89
9.4
Milestones and Timelines for implementation of specific actions ..................................................... 90
9.5
Adaptive Capacity and existing barriers in Tshwane ........................................................................... 91
9.6
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 92
10
Monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation (MRVE) .................................................................... 93
10.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 93
10.2
MRVE on implementing Adaptation Plan............................................................................................ 93
10.3
Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 100
4
11
References ............................................................................................................................................. 101
5
Tables
Table 1: Climatic drivers and pressures (Adapted from UNEP, 2011) ................................................. 15
Table 2. Drivers and pressures linked to non- climatic variables (Source: CoT, 2013a; CoT, 2014;
Regional workshops, June 2014) ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 3: Mechanisms for integrating climate change adaptation ........................................................ 23
Table 4. Assessing community resilience of the CoT ............................................................................ 28
Table 5. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual totals of rainfall (mm). .............. 32
Table 6. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual averages for minimum, maximum
and mean daily temperatures (°C) over Tshwane. These averages were calculated over the period
1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1 data set. ................................................. 32
Table 7: Air Pollutants over CoT............................................................................................................ 55
Table 8. Incidents of hailstorms in the CoT (CoT-SACN, 2013). ........................................................... 60
Table 9. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on NCDs (from Friel et al., 2011) ............ 66
Table 10: Natural environment ............................................................................................................. 73
Table 11: Air .......................................................................................................................................... 74
Table 12: Water resource ..................................................................................................................... 74
Table 13: Key vulnerabilities and adaptation options related to Human health .................................. 75
Table 14: Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................ 76
Table 15: Energy.................................................................................................................................... 76
Table 16: Human settlements ............................................................................................................... 77
Table 17: Social economic development .............................................................................................. 78
Table 18: Disaster management ........................................................................................................... 79
Table 19: Institutional adaptive capacity and barriers for the CoT. ..................................................... 91
Table 20: Proposed MRVE guideline for the CoT(Adapted from: Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013). ... 96
Table 21: Selected examples of indicators to inform the scoring of actions in the proposed
framework at relevant milestones throughout the duration of the project. ....................................... 97
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Figures
Figure 1. Location of CoT (Source CoT IDP, 2014)................................................................................. 11
Figure 2. Administrative regions of Tshwane (Source CoT, 2013a) ...................................................... 12
Figure 3: Population distribution across the regions (Source CoT IDP, 2014) ...................................... 12
Figure 4: Region 1 ................................................................................................................................. 17
Figure 5: Region 2 ................................................................................................................................. 18
Figure 6: Social vulnerability in Region 3 .............................................................................................. 19
Figure 7: Region 4 depicting the vulnerability of the communities ...................................................... 20
Figure 8: Region 5, depicting vulnerability of communities ................................................................. 21
Figure 9. Location of Tshwane in relation to the north-eastern areas of South Africa. ....................... 31
Figure 10. The present day annual cycle in rainfall and temperature over Tshwane (calculated from
the CRUTS3.1 data set). ........................................................................................................................ 32
Figure 11. Projected change in the annual average temperature over NE South: ............................... 35
Figure 12. Projected change in average rainfall (mm) over NE South Africa:....................................... 36
Figure 13. Projected annual temperature (°C,y-axis) and rainfall (mm, x-axis) anomalies for the
period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline climatology, for the
six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario .................................................................................... 38
Figure 14: Simulated annual number of very hot days (days with maximum temperature exceeding
35 °C) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the
A2 scenario............................................................................................................................................ 39
Figure 15. Simulated number of extreme precipitation days (24-hr rainfall exceeding 20 mm over an
area of 50x50 km2) for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM
downscalings under the A2 scenario. ................................................................................................... 40
Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem status (adopted from BGIS, 2014)............................... 44
Figure 17. Water management areas and surface water sources (BGIS, 2014) ................................... 46
Figure 18: Quality of Ground water ...................................................................................................... 49
Figure 19. Land cover in the CoT........................................................................................................... 52
Figure 20. Air quality rating for the CoT ............................................................................................... 54
Figure 21: Informal settlements located on the flood line Source (Built Environment, 2014) ............ 56
Figure 22: Mabopane road and bridge washed away during heavy flooding in Northern Pretoria
(Source: The Citizen, 2014) ................................................................................................................... 57
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Figure 23: Informal housing in 50-year flood lines in Region 1 (Soshanguve) (CSIR Built Environment,
2014). .................................................................................................................................................... 58
Figure 24: Location of informal housing, backyards and traditional houses ........................................ 61
Figure 25. Population density in the CoT. ............................................................................................. 61
Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density clusters located on dolomite. ................................ 62
Figure 27. Social vulnerability index. .................................................................................................... 64
Figure 28: Ranking of regional vulnerability to climate change before and after population size
adjustment. ........................................................................................................................................... 68
Figure 29. Likelihood and magnitude matrix, ....................................................................................... 70
Figure 30. Link between adaptation focus areas and priority risks. ..................................................... 82
Figure 31. Key milestones and timelines (Source: CoT, 2013a). ........................................................... 90
Figure 32. Procedure for the MRVE for the implementation of the CoT Adaptation plan (adapted
from DWAF, 2005). ............................................................................................................................... 94
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Acronyms
A2 SRES
Special Report on Emission Scenarios
AMD
Acid mine drainage
AR4
Assessment Report Four
CBD
Central Business District
CCAM
Conformal-Cubic atmospheric model
cCCR
Carbonn Cities Climate Registry
CGCM
Coupled Global Climate Model
CMIP3
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3
CO
Carbon Monoxide
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CoT
City of Tshwane
CR
Critically endangered
CRU
Climatic Research Unit
CSIRO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
DFID
Department for International Development
DJF
December to February
DOTS
Directly Observed Treatment Service
DPME
Department of Performance Monitoring and Evaluation
DPSEEA
Drivers – Pressures – State – Exposure – Effect – Action
DPSIR
Drivers – Pressures – State – Impact – Response
DWAF
Department of Water Affairs and Forestry
EN
Endangered
GIZ
Gesellschaftfür Internationale Zusammenarbeit
GCM
Global Circulation Model
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GVA
Gross Value Added
GWM&E
Government-wide Monitoring & Evaluation
HIA
Health Impact Assessment
IDP
Integrated Development Plan
IEA
integrated environmental assessments
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
1
IPS
Internal Perspective Study
KZNDED
KwaZulu-Natal Department of Economic Development
LT
Less threatened
LTAS
Long-term adaptation strategies
MRVE
Monitoring, Reporting, Verification and Evaluation system
NO2
Nitrogen dioxide
O3
Ozone
PM
Particulate Matter
RCM
Regional Climate Model
RSDF
Regional Spatial Development Frameworks
SAAQIS
South African Air Quality Information System
SDF
Spatial Development Framework
SEED
Sustainable Energy and Climate Change
SLF
Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
SO2
Sulphur dioxide
SPLUMA
Spatial Planning Land Use Management Act
SRES
Special Report on Emission Scenarios
TB
Tuberculosis
TDS
Total dissolved solids
VBD
Vector-borne diseases
VOC
Volatile Organic Compounds
VU
Vulnerable ecosystem
WHO
World Health Organisation
WMA
Upper Vaal water Management Authority
ZD
Zoonotic diseases
2
Glossary of Terms used in this report
Adaptation: In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its
effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the
process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate
adjustment to expected climate.
Adaptive capacity refers to the characteristics of the population or system that will enable them to
respond positively to the exposure or the hazard, including climate change and variability.
Biodiversity describes the variety of life on earth in terms of genes, species and ecosystems, and the
ecological and evolutionary processes that maintain this diversity. It is a measure of ecosystem
health.
Biome is an area of the planet that can be classified according to the plants and animals that live in
it. Temperature, soil, and the amount of light and water help determine what life exists in a biome.
Climate Change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical
tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an
extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal
processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the
atmosphere or in land use.
Climate extreme (extreme weather or climate event) is the occurrence of a value of a weather or
climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends of the range of
observed values of the variable. For simplicity, both extreme weather events and extreme climate
events are referred to collectively as ‘climate extremes.’
Climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical,
and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and
accounting for all or some of its known properties.
Climate predictions or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the
actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g., at seasonal, inter-annual or long-term time scales.
Climate variability refers to short-term change in climate caused by changes in the ocean and
atmosphere. El Niño is an example of climate variability. Climate variability is not the same as
climate change. Climate change also changes climate variability.
Community-based adaptation (CBA) refers to a community-led process based on communities’
priorities, needs, knowledge, and capacities, which should empower people to plan for and cope with
the impacts of climate change.
3
Disaster refers to severe changes in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to
hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread
adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency
response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery.
Driving forces are the underlying factors related to fundamental societal and world economic
processes that promote activities that have a direct impact on the environment for example
population growth.
Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) refers to the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of
an overall adaptation strategy with main goal to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of
climate change. (IUCN).
Exposure refers to contact between the agent, e.g., extreme temperatures and the target, for
example, the individual, population group, community or even ecosystem, livelihoods, ecosystem,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by
hazards or changes in climate.
Flood is the overflowing of the normal confines of a stream or other body of water, or the
accumulation of water over areas that are not normally submerged. Floods include river (fluvial)
floods, flash floods, urban floods, pluvial floods, sewer floods, coastal floods, and glacial lake
outburst floods.
General Circulation Model (GCM) is a global, three-dimensional computer model of the climate
system which can be used to simulate human-induced climate change.
Hazard refers to the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may
cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property,
infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources.
Heat waves are defined as a prolonged period of excessive heat, when daily maximum temperatures,
for more than five consecutive days, exceeds the daily maximum temperature by the average by 5°C ,
in relation to the normal period, being 1961–1990.
Impacts refers to the manifestation of vulnerability. The damage caused by climate and weatherrelated hazards or effects on natural and human systems, referring to the effects on natural and
human systems of physical events, of disasters, and of climate change.
Key result areas (KRAs) refers to general areas of outputs or outcomes, or primary responsibilities of
an individual, or the core area which each person is accountable for.
Milestone is a scheduled event that indicates the completion of a major event.
Social vulnerability definition within the disaster management field reads as; “the state of
individuals, groups, or communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any
external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being.”.
Prioritisation considers all of one’s responsibilities or chores, and arranges them in such a way that
the most important one is done first, then the next most important one, etc.
4
Priority risks have a high impact and a high likelihood of happening.
Resilience refers to the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same
state or domain of attraction; the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation.
Risk (climate-related) is the result of interaction of physically defined hazards with the properties of
the exposed systems – i.e., their sensitivity or (social) vulnerability. Risk can also be considered as the
combination of an event, its likelihood, and its consequences – i.e., risk equals the probability of
climate hazard multiplied by a given system’s vulnerability.
Sensitivity refers to the degree of susceptibility to the exposure, meaning the extent to which a
system may be directly or indirectly impacted by climate variability or change.
Stakeholder is a person or an organisation that has a legitimate interest in a project or entity, or
would be affected by a particular action or policy.
Vulnerability assessments provide valuable insights for policy makers by identifying the
circumstances that put people and places at risk, including factors that reduce the capacity of people
to respond to changes.
Vulnerability is “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity”.
5
Executive Summary
Climate change poses a threat to meeting the country’s and city’s development goals as it affects
both natural and human systems. As such there is need to respond to this threat and minimise the
negative impacts of climate change Climate change and its impacts are set to affect urban areas
significantly, with the urban poor likely to be the most vulnerable to these impacts. City of Tshwane
(CoT), like any other city faces the same challenges of providing for a growing population and
economic sector while attempting to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality, in the face of
increasing climate change.
Secondary literature and a few stakeholder workshops with City of Tshwane sector departments
provided information on impacts of changes in weather variables on different sectors, adaptation
options, stakeholder roles and responsibilities. A questionnaire was administered in an attempt to
get more input from sector department representatives including the adaptive capacity of the City
and identification of barriers to effective to adaptation. The questionnaire also sought to validate
information regarding the planning documents used by sector departments as well as the adaptation
projects they are currently implementing in their respective departments. Climate change
projections for temperature and rainfall were modelled using a variety of climate models and
downscaled climate models. An analysis of existing high-resolution projections of future climate
change over the Tshwane region has been performed for this purpose. GIS was used to map the
environmental and some of the social factors that will be affected by climate change in the City of
Tshwane. The ranking and prioritization was conducted qualitatively, through combining inputs from
the other chapters of the report to derive priority risks for adaptation.
The climate modelling project for the City of Tshwane indicate increases in temperature of between
4 and 6.5°C by the turn of the century, with increases of between 2 - 3°C expected by the mid-term
(2040 – 2060). Projection for rainfall suggests less rain over the CoT region in future with more hot
days predicted. The occurrence of extreme weather related events such as droughts, floods,
hailstorms and heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and intensity affecting especially
the vulnerable population groups, as well as essential infrastructure and economic development.
Flash floods in Tshwane have caused damage to roads and bridges, homes, and also exacerbated the
risk of sink holes in parts of Region 3 and Region 4. These impacts result in the vulnerability of key
sectors that affect the sustainable development of the city. Vulnerability assessments provide
planners and decision makers with useful information that allows them to make informed decisions
on managing their built and natural environment and also take advantage of opportunities
presented by climate change.
The seven regions of the CoT were ranked according to their social, health and environmental
vulnerability with a ranking of low, medium or high. The social vulnerability also gives an indication
of coping capacity. Region 1 is ranked highly vulnerable due to the informal settlements and high
population density and its location within the flood lines. Regions 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 have medium to
high vulnerability and Region 7 has a low to medium vulnerability.
6
A myriad of key vulnerability sectors have been identified in the CoT including human health, human
settlements that are at risk of flooding, agro-ecosystems that provide food security, water security,
both supply and quality, high energy demand for domestic and industrial use and ecosystems goods
and services.
The climate change projections as well as the identified key vulnerabilities and the risk factors were
ranked and prioritised to generate key adaptation options for the city in order to build resilience to
climate change and its impacts. Identifying adaptation options for the sectors most at risk, allows for
the response to the threats of climate change. This process requires that both human and natural
systems adjust to actual or expected changes in climate and associated effects and build resilience.
Risk assessment and prioritization of these risks identified eight priority risks for the CoT. These are
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increase in energy demand
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
Risk factor 4: Damage to public infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes in dolomite areas?
Risk factor 8: Decrease in productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
A variety of adaptation options are presented in this report and could be adopted by sectors to
address or minimise the impact of the priority risks so that the CoT can still meet their development
goals. Adaptation focus areas identified in the Framework for a Green Economy Transition to be
critical for climate change adaptation and building resilience of the City are also linked to the priority
risks and key adaptation actions. Climate change vulnerability in CoT is a result of a combination of
social, economic and ecological factors such as the ageing infrastructure (e.g. Region 1), increasing
population demand on infrastructure which increases pressure on the systems such as the storm
water drainage system.
Responding to these risk factors would require partnerships between sectors such as the human
settlements, roads and storm water infrastructure planning, social development, disaster
management and emergency services. Effective and efficient adaptation should have input from
different stakeholders at various levels of government, private sector, civil society, researchers and
operational implementers. Local government therefore needs to anticipate challenges as there is
uncertainty with regard to magnitude, timing and distribution of climate change impacts.
The CoT has some initiatives in place that influence their ability to cope with climate change related
hazards. These include a functional disaster management department and establishment of
7
sustainability office that drive the transition to a climate resilient city. There are also community
based organisations and non-governmental organisations that were established to strengthen
adaptation at grassroots level. There are also some barriers with in the city that inhibit their
transition to a resilient city and these include uncertainty on extent of climate change, limited
financial allocation for maintenance of adaptation projects and attitude of officials who are
unreceptive to new ways of doing things.
A monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation system (MRVE) is proposed as an internal
management tool to monitor progress of the implementation plan as well as to provide information
on the gaps between the expectation of the project and the results achieved from the actions
contained in the adaptation plan. The MRVE of the adaptation plan will help the City achieve its
long-term goal of being a resilient city as this provides learning through feedback into the planning
and decision-making process.
This document should continually be updated as more information becomes available. Methods
such as cost-benefit analysis could be conducted in the future to inform the cost of adaptation in the
CoT.
8
2 Introduction
Climate change is a multi-disciplinary, global phenomenon that is increasingly recognized as a one of
the biggest challenges of the 21st Century, with the potential to reverse developmental gains of the
past. Given its potential impact on development, climate change has become an essential
component of development-oriented decision-making, especially being integrated into the planning
process at local level. In order to support sub-national/local municipal areas to become resilient to
anticipated climate change, it is important for the nature of vulnerability to be understood from a
sub-national perspective and for such an understanding to be reflected in relevant development
strategies that are formulated at various levels of governance for example local, sub-national and
national (UNDP, 2011).
The climate change debate has conventionally been associated with images of vulnerable rural
populations, with the phrase conjuring pictures of a parched earth and the isolated smallholder
farmers dependent on the soil and the natural environment for their livelihood (UN Habitat, 2014).
Nonetheless, in a world where half of the population is urban, with an estimated 70% of the world’s
population expected to be living in cities by 2025, that paradigm is changing fast (UN Habitat, 2014;
UNEP, 2011). Cities characterize not only hotspots for vulnerability to changing weather and climate
patterns, but are also crucial epicentres for innovative response to these changes.
Cities are increasingly expected to undertake concrete actions to adapt to sea level rise, floods,
droughts and other natural disasters exacerbated by climate change and climate variability. The
impacts of climate change differ depending on geographical location, from rural and urban areas,
coastal to mountain cities, and low-latitude cities. Cities are considered the most vulnerable areas to
climate change, and are often where the effects of urbanisation and climate change converge in
dangerous ways (UN Habitat, 2014) including extreme weather related disasters, such as storm
surges, floods and droughts. Mapping the most at-risk areas of a city with relevant climate impactagents is thus a fundamental step in understanding how to reduce a city’s vulnerability (UN Habitat,
2014). Understanding the city’s vulnerability will inform the development of strategies for
adaptation to climate change, as well build the resilience of cities and its populations to climate
change. It is essential for cities to adapt to both short-term and long-term trends associated with
climate change including increased precipitation, inland floods, more frequent and stronger storms,
and periods of more extreme heat and cold (UN Habitat, 2014).
Cities themselves contribute substantially to climate change, consuming 78% of the world’s energy
and producing more than 60% of all carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other greenhouse gas
emissions, mainly through energy generation, vehicles, industry, and biomass use. Conversely, cities
can play a critical role in mitigating climate change through various strategies including reduction of
9
energy consumption, promotion of renewable sources of energy and trading of carbon credits under
the Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. The latter is becoming a lucrative business for
‘green’ and ‘clean’ cities. Green-house gas emissions inventories and abatement potential
assessment are becoming vital tools for cities’ climate mitigation planning (UN Habitat, 2014).
Cities are also economic hubs, with most of the vital economic and social infrastructure, government
facilities and assets being located in cities. The most climate change-affected populations are, as
mentioned earlier, likely to be the urban poor especially those located in informal areas i.e. slum
dwellers, who tend to live in areas prone to flooding and other natural disasters areas (UNEP, 2011).
Addressing climate change in cities, despite the threats faced, has been problematic, due to, for
example, the absence of applicable policies and action plans; existence of regulations on urban
planning and environment which do not incorporate the management of climate change; slow
response to climate disasters due to lack of capacity and resources; and lack of public awareness on
climate variability and climate change-induced hazard mitigation. Cities have the potential to
diminish the causes of climate change (mitigation) and effectively protect themselves from its
impacts (adaptation).
Local government, especially municipalities, are well-placed to develop and implement effective
adaptation strategies to climate change, given their position as the scale of government closest to
the people with access to local knowledge and experience. Such attributes are important in
designing strategies that address the specific vulnerabilities of local areas, communities, socioeconomic activities and ecosystems in the context of climate change. This important role is
recognized in the National Climate Change Response Strategy and National Framework on
Sustainable Development, and as indicated by the South African Cities Network.
10
3 Status quo overview
2.1
City of Tshwane
The City of Tshwane (CoT) is located in the Gauteng Province and is South Africa’s capital city. It is
the largest of the three metropolitan in the province covering an area of 6345km² which is the third
largest in the world in terms of land mass (CoT IDP, 2014). The total population for the CoT is
estimated to be slightly above 2.9 million (Stats SA, 2011; CoT IDP, 2014). Error! Reference source
not found. shows the location of Tshwane in South Africa. Error! Reference source not found. below
shows the location of the seven administrative regions of Tshwane followed by the population
distribution across these regions in Figure 3.
Figure 1. Location of CoT (Source CoT IDP, 2014)
11
Figure 2. Administrative regions of Tshwane (Source CoT, 2013a)
Figure 3: Population distribution across the regions (Source CoT IDP, 2014)
12
CoT population consists of 75.9% African (mostly in region 1, 3, 5, 6), 20.2% whites (mostly in region
3, 4 and 6), 2.1% Indian/Asian (majority in region 3 and 4) and 2% Coloured (majority in region 5)
(CoT, 2013:57a). Of this population 71.9% are in the working age group (15-64). The dependency
ratio is 39% i.e. the number of people relying on the working age group (0-14 and those above the
age of 65). The dependency ratio highlights the proportion of the population who are vulnerable to
changes in temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events due to socio economic factors such as
education, health and income. Unemployment in Tshwane is about 24.2% and has a Gini Coefficient
of 0.63 highlighting high levels of inequality (CoT, 2014). Inequality is prevalent especially in
townships, informal settlements and merged areas in the north of the city. The city is however one
of the fastest growing municipalities in South Africa in 2014 its Gross Value Added (GVA) was
calculated to be R275 billion.
The Tshwane Health District serves 2.7 million people, with 74.2% of these without health insurance.
The HIV infection rate in 2010 was 26.1% - below the country average of 30%. The CoT strategies to
fight HIV/AIDS and TB are proving to be a successful as shown by the increase in HIV/AIDS clinic and
TB cure rates.
About 142 000 people are employed in the informal sector and there are about 150 informal
settlements across the city making up 18% of Tshwane’s dwelling type (CoT, 2014) , The CoT has
been experiencing urban sprawl where by the city has extended its boundaries to incorporate new
areas over time. Apart from a growing population and economic growth the CoT faces challenges in
meeting the needs of its residents in the face of climate change. This affects the city’s ability to
achieve sustainable development and to also meet its Vision 2055 long-term development goals.
Hence there is need to understand the vulnerability context and develop strategies to adapt and
build resilience of the city.
3.1.1
CoT Development Goals
During the assessment of risks and vulnerability in Tshwane it is important to consider the CoT’s
development goals. Development initiatives in Tshwane have been aligned to the City of Tshwane
Vision 2055 which sets out its aspirational long term vision and outcomes which are anticipated for
the city. Tshwane Vision 2055 highlights the City’s forty year plan aimed at improving the lives of the
current generation by meeting their developmental needs and also plan for the future generations
(CoT, 2013a). The long-term vision of the City is that;
In 2055, Tshwane is liveable, resilient and inclusive whose citizens enjoy a high quality of life,
have access to social, economic and enhanced political freedoms and where citizens are
partners in the development of the African Capital City of excellence (CoT, 2013a).
13
As such, current policy and planning documents contribute towards the outcomes outlined in
Tshwane Vision 2055 as this is the point of reference for the City’s development pathway. Some of
the outcomes linked to climate change adaptation include:




A resilient and resource-efficient city
A growing economy that is inclusive, diversified and competitive
Quality infrastructure development that supports liveable communities
An equitable city that supports human happiness, social cohesion, safety and healthy
citizens
These outcomes also seek to address key national challenges that have been highlighted in the
National Development Plan (NDP) Vision 2030. These include a resource-intensive economy, high
disease burden, unemployment and poverty (NPC, 2011). Some of these challenges are also likely to
be aggravated by climate change, for example unemployment and poverty, when natural resource
based economic activities such as agriculture and forestry become less productive due to changes in
temperature and rainfall. Increasing poverty and unemployment are likely to increase the number of
vulnerable people. The next section looks at the drivers and pressures of climate change
vulnerability in the CoT.
3.1.2
Drivers and pressures linked to climatic variables in the CoT
Driving forces are activities that have a direct impact on the environment for example population
growth (UNEP, 2011:10). These can be economic, demographic or political. Pressures are the
immediate cause of the status quo i.e. the vulnerable context where people and their assets are
exposed to disasters. For example risk to informal settlement fires is not generated through poor
construction material or high densities but rather it is a result of underlying factors such as political
systems (e.g. apartheid), poverty, unemployment and inequality. These factors drive people to live in
unsafe environments as they are unable to afford safe buildings and have limited protection from
governing authorities (Wisner, et. al., 2003).
The following section draws from the work done on city risk profiling as well as the assessment of
current and future climate trends and projections. It highlights the climatic and non –climatic
vulnerability drivers and pressures in Tshwane which are also areas in need of intervention for
effective adaptation. These are listed in Table 1 together with some indicators that can be used to
assess vulnerability to these variables.
14
Table 1: Climatic drivers and pressures (Adapted from UNEP, 2011)
Climatic variable
Vulnerability in Tshwane
Increased temperature

Increased risk and incidence of fires e.g.
Region 2

Creates the urban heat island where
temperatures in Tshwane is slightly higher
than surrounding areas

Changes in quantity and
distribution of rainfall
Extreme weather events
frequency and intensity
likely to increase
Increased atmospheric pollution with more
pollutants such as carbon monoxide, benzene
and nitrogen dioxide

Increased risk of vector borne diseases such
as malaria. In 2012 6 people in region 1 and
region 6 diagnosed with malaria yet they had
not been to malaria high risk areas (M&G,
2012)

Decreased rainfall potentially results in
reduced annual surface water run-off,
reductions in mean flows of rivers and loss of
biodiversity e.g. Hennops river and Rietvlei
dam

Extreme events such as flash floods which
have caused damage to roads and bridges in
areas such as Ga-Rankuwa, Soshanguve and
Centurion.

Flash floods also increase the risk of sinkholes
as old sinkholes are enlarged and new ones
emerge e.g. Region 3 and 4

Heat waves across the City resulting in
human discomfort e.g January 2013 and
January 2014

Hailstorms which have destroyed homes in
areas such as Mamelodi West
15
Indicators of vulnerability and
exposure









Records of temperature –
average, maximum, minimum.
Frequency of thermal events.
Climatic
zoning
(largely
temperature-related) of the city.
Percentage of green areas (with
trees and gardens) in the city.
Distribution of these areas.
Policy and projects that promote
green spaces.
Water scarcity (frequency, extent
and duration).
Increase in drought duration and
frequency.
Location of areas in the city
which are susceptible to drought
Historical record of extreme
events. Type, magnitude and size
of city area affected.
Location in the city of zones that
have
experienced
extreme
events.
Drivers and pressures linked to non-climatic factors in the CoT
3.2 Regional Vulnerability Profiles
The vulnerability assessment of the regions used a combination of the social vulnerability index, the
human health and wellness, and the environmental factors in Chapter 6 and considered both
climatic and none climatic factors as indicated in the tables above. The index is used to describe the
characteristics of a community or group of people at a sub-place level. The social vulnerability map
indicates the inability of people or settlements to cope with, withstand or adapt to the impacts of
multiple stressors and is an adequate response to measuring and identifying the location of
vulnerable communities (Birkmann, 2006). The result of the composite social vulnerability index is
showed in Figure 27. Social vulnerability index.
in chapter 6.
Region 1: High Vulnerability
Region 1 is situated in the north-western part of the City and comprises of three main zones. These
include a southern zone (Akasia, Rosslyn and Pretoria North), a northern zone (Klipkruisfontein, GaRankuwa, Mabopane, Winterveld and Soshanguve areas) and the rural zone in the west CoT 2055,
2013). The region is dominated by a very large population that is considered to be extremely
vulnerable. Hot spots can be observed in Winterveld, Mabopane, Soshanguve and Ga-Rankuwa. The
southern parts of the region except for the sub-places of Winternest AH and Pretoria North are not
considered to be vulnerable (compare to Figure 4). The region also has a high vulnerability for
human health and wellness, both before and after population has been added, highlighting high
vulnerability for impacts of gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and the extreme
temperatures. In terms of settlement vulnerability, the northern part of the Region accommodates
a third of the City’s population in low-income settlements that includes subsidised housing and
informal settlements. These settlements are located within the flood lines making them vulnerable
to annual flooding.
16
Figure 4: Region 1
Region 2: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 2 has three main zones, the urban north zone, central and eastern agriculture and
conservation zones, and the southern zone (CoT 2055, 2013). Despite the rural nature and low
population density, the areas of Hammanskraal, Majaneng, Stinkwater, Kudube, Dilopye and Temba
have a very high social vulnerability while the southern part (expect for a few agricultural and small
holdings) is not considered to be vulnerable (see Figure 5). In terms of human health and well-being,
the region showed high vulnerability before the population was added on, resulting in low, medium
and high vulnerability to gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and extreme temperature.
The northern part of the region, with the highest population density is also located within a flood
line, making them vulnerable to flooding.
17
Figure 5: Region 2
The unemployment rate among the economically active group in the region is at 28%, which is
higher than the average for the CoT and second highest in the City (Region 1 has the highest
unemployment rate), which negatively influences the population’s ability to cope. At least a third
(33.2%) of the population is vulnerable to any hazard in terms of their age and will most likely have
to be assisted in the case of an extreme event, and 0.10% of children under 5 years of age are
already severely malnourished, thus vulnerable to food insecurity related to climate change.
Region 2 is thus also vulnerable to climate change, although the southern part is less vulnerable in
terms of coping. The central and eastern parts, being agriculture and conservation areas, will be
more affected by a change in climate than the northern and southern areas.
Region 3: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 3 is composed of the central business district (CBD) of the City, the Brooklyn, and Hatfield
metropolitan nodes. The eastern two-thirds of the region is mostly urbanised whereas the western
third is mostly rural. Pockets of high and very high vulnerability can be observed in Attridgeville,
Saulsville, Jeffersville, Phumolong and Lotus Gardens while vulnerability is present in areas such as
Sunnyside, Laudium, Kwaggasrand, Danville, Elandspoort, Salvokop and Lindopark. The region has
several sub-places that pose zero to very little social vulnerability; these include Waterkloof,
Brooklyn, Riviera, Roseville etc. The human health and wellbeing vulnerability indicates that under
both scenarios (with population and without) the region has low vulnerability to all three, elements,
gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and temperature. Parts of Region 3 are located in the
flood line, making them susceptible to flooding while the southernmost section is located on
dolomitic ground making it vulnerable to sink holes (Figure 6).
18
Figure 6: Social vulnerability in Region 3
The area is economically extremely vulnerable to severe events, due to the high concentration of
business, the presence of valuable buildings and the presence of infrastructure such as the train
stations, hospitals and universities. The area is also vulnerable in terms of the number of residents as
20.0% of the population of the CoT live in Region 3, constituting the third highest concentration of
residents (CoT IDP, 2013-14). In addition nearly a quarter (23.8%) of the residents is vulnerable to
any hazard in terms of their age, as they are children below 15 years or elderly (above 65 years) and
at least 0.10% of the under 5-year-olds are vulnerable to food insecurity as they are severely
malnourished.
Region 4: Low to Medium Vulnerability
Region 4 is situated in the south-western portion of the City. The Region borders on the area of
jurisdiction of the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, Ekurhuleni Metropolitan
Municipality as well as Mogale City to the west. The Region, served by both north-south and
eastwest irst order roads (highways), links it to the rest of Gauteng and the broader region. The
Region consists of an urban area to the east and a rural area to the west both of which are currently
under pressure for development.There are three distinct pockets of socially vulnerable communities
1) Mooiplaas, 2) Olievenhoutbos and 3) three sub-places that are part of Saulsville and Attridgeville.
Heuweloord and Laudium also display a level of vulnerability. There are also many areas in Centurion
that has little to no vulnerability. The region is rated to have low vulnerability to gradual climate
change, extreme precipitation and temperature, in terms human health and wellbeing. Regarding
settlement vulnerability, this region is affected by dolomite, which despite not being climate change
related increases the vulnerability of the region to sink holes (see Figure 7).
19
Figure 7: Region 4 depicting the vulnerability of the communities
About 13% of the population (379 335) of the CoT live in Region 4. The unemployment rate among
the economically active group is at 13% the lowest in the City, adding to their coping ability in the
case of an event. The percentage children under 5 years with severe malnutrition are also at 0.05%
the second lowest in the City, indicating that the region will be less vulnerable in the case of food
insecurity as a result of climate change. The percentage of the population considered to be
vulnerable to any hazard due to the fact that they fall within the categories of children or the aged is
22.8%, which is lower than the percentage for any of the other regions.
Region 5: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 5 has rather weak spatial structure characterised by heavy through traffic, vast open spaces,
small economic centres and enormous development pressure from residential areas from Tshwane
pushing further and further eastward. Region 5 is a rural area characterised by nature conservation
(including the Dinokeng Blue IQ project of Gauteng), tourism and mixed agricultural land uses.
Mining, especially in Cullinan provides work opportunities for communities in the area (CoT, 2013,
2013). Both Refilwe and Onverwacht have extremely high vulnerability with Refilewe hosting almost
20 000 people. There are several small holdings with a presence of vulnerability as well. Region 5
has large water and sanitation services backlogs. The need is mainly reflected in the informal
settlements that are located in the various wards which although they are small and relatively
contained, are spread throughout the area, forming low-income residential enclaves (CoT).Regarding
20
vulnerability of human health and wellbeing, the region is rated low after the population was added
but medium before the population was added (see Figure 8).
(
Figure 8: Region 5, depicting vulnerability of communities
Being a rural area, most probably dependent on farming practices, makes Region 5 vulnerable to the
effects of climate change such as floods and droughts. In addition, the many informal houses make
the occupants more vulnerable to extreme temperatures and the relatively high proportion of
malnourished children make the population more vulnerable to food insecurity.
Region 6: Medium to High Vulnerability
Region 6 faces the greatest development pressure, with almost all the developable land within the
southern section of the Region having been developed. The uncontrolled development places a
burden on the existing saturated road infrastructure. The south-eastern section has the highest
income per capita, but here is also a huge concentration of people in the north-east quadrant with
no to low income. The north-eastern section of the Region accommodates mostly low- income
communities and industrial land uses. Mamelodi, Nelmapius and Eersterus have high to very high
vulnerability with pockets of vulnerability detected in Silverton and Pretoriuspark as well. The rest of
the region has very little to no vulnerability. The region is classified as having medium vulnerability
to all three impacts, gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and temperatures. Parts of
region 6, especially where the informal settlements are located is within the floodline, making the
area vulnerable to flooding.
21
The south-eastern part of Region 6 has the highest income per capita of all seven regions but the
north-eastern part of the region has a large concentration of people in the low-income and noincome groups, which makes this area more vulnerable (in terms of coping). In general the people in
these low-income areas are mainly living in informal houses, poorly isolated against extreme
temperatures and vulnerable to floods.
There are a high number of businesses and retailers in Region 6 and the second most important
industrialised area in the CoT is also found here, which makes the region economically vulnerable in
the case of a climate change event such as a flood.
Region 7: Low to Medium Vulnerability
Region 7 has the second largest geographical land area and contains some of the best farming land
in Gauteng with more than 80% of land arable, but agriculture currently makes an insignificant
contribution (less than 5%) to the City’s economy. The most significant contributors to the Region’s
economy are manufacturing, services, financial, and trade. The tourism sector is regarded as small,
but a developing sector. The Region includes a few prominent land uses of strategic significance to
the City of Tshwane such as Bronkhorstspruit town area, Ekandustria industrial area and
Bronkhorstspruit dam. Areas of high vulnerability include Sokhulumi, Enkangala, Rethabiseng and
Zithobeni. Region 7 has low vulnerability to gradual climate change, extreme precipitation and
extreme temperature. No flood lines were available for mapping for this area, however the region
is ranked high in terms of vulnerability to extreme precipitation, and medium in terms of both
gradual climate change and extreme heat events.
Only 3.8% (109765) of the population of the CoT lives in Region 7. About a third of these (32.5%) are
considered vulnerable to any hazard in terms of age, which is the second highest of all regions. The
unemployment rate among the economically active group, is 26%, the third highest of the seven
regions, indicating that this group is more vulnerable to the effects of climate change in terms of
their ability to cope. However, the region has the lowest proportion of children below the age of 5
years with severe malnutrition, indicating that the smallest number of children vulnerable to food
insecurity related to climate change is in Region 7.
In community surveys done in the CoT, it was determined that unemployment, poverty, job creation,
skills development and crime are the five main issues raised in all regions, thus issues were mostly
related to the ability to cope.
The following section looks at mechanisms such as policies or management instruments that can be
used to mainstream climate change adaptation in the CoT.
3.2.1
Mechanisms /instruments to mainstream climate change adaptation
These outcomes also seek to address key national challenges that have been highlighted in the
National Development Plan 2030 Vision. These include resource intensive economy, high disease
22
burden, unemployment and poverty (NPC, 2011). Some of these challenges are also likely to be
aggravated by climate change, for example unemployment and poverty, when natural resource
based economic activities such as agriculture and forestry become less productive due to changes in
temperature and rainfall. Increasing poverty and unemployment are likely to increase the number of
vulnerable people.
A wide range of development plans exist at sector level which could be policy, process, planning or
management instruments. These can be used as mechanisms or instruments to mainstream climate
change adaptation in Tshwane. Table 2 highlights some of these mechanisms available to guide and
coordinate the implementation of the adaptation strategies of the various sectors.
Table 2: Mechanisms for integrating climate change adaptation
Mechanism /Instrument
type
Policy instruments
These provide guiding principles
for urban decision-makers
Process Instruments
provide ways of doing something,
steps that can be taken to reach a
desired goal
Planning instruments
Offer a variety of methods by
which urban development plans
can be developed and
implemented
Management Instruments
Are the tools to direct and
administer urban planning
decisions
Examples for City of Tshwane
Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Action Plan, Framework for a Green
Economy Transition, Tshwane Vision 2055 Spatial Planning Land Use Management
Act (SPLUMA), Gauteng Town and Townships Ordinance, Food security policy
Baseline studies eg. risk and vulnerability assessments, economic and social sector
status
State of environment report , Strategic Environmental Assessment, Tshwane
Metropolitan Spatial Development Framework, Regional Spatial Development
Frameworks (RSDF) promote densification along public transport routes, Tshwane
Town Planning Scheme, Tshwane Open Space Frame work, CoT IDP, Agricultural
Development Plan
Environmental audits Sustainable Energy and Climate Change (SEED) programme
Green Building Codes, Building Regulations, Regional development plans
It is essential therefore that local government try to develop strategies to mitigate and adapt to the
impacts of climate change that would simultaneously help to alleviate poverty. Section 10 of the
National Climate Change Response Policy (2009) notes that all government departments and stateowned enterprises need to review their policies, strategies, legislation, regulations and plans falling
within their jurisdictions to ensure full alignment with the policy document within two years of its
publication. The City of Tshwane has been proactive and has integrated climate change adaptation
into their strategic priorities and long term goals as climate change impacts are felt at local level.
23
4 Methodology
4.1 Stakeholder engagement methodology
Key instruments used to elicit information from stakeholders were workshops and focus group
discussions. The workshops provided a platform for the project team to engage with CoT officials
and get inputs into the project as well as present research outcomes and also get feedback.
Attendance at the CoT sector department workshops varied from three to 30 people per workshop.
Focus group discussions were conducted with regional representatives from three regions to gain
insights on the regional risk and vulnerability profiles, drivers and pressures of vulnerability,
livelihood strategies and the institutions who are working in the regions.
4.2 Climate modelling methodology: bias-corrected projections from a
regional climate model
The main tool for the projection of future climate change is the global circulation model (GCM). The
projections of these models form the basis of the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order to simulate future climate, GCMs are forced with the
changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, for both high and low mitigation scenarios. The
models subsequently simulate the response of the global climate system to the enhanced
greenhouse effect. It has become conventional to examine the output of many different GCMs, in
order to gain some understanding of the uncertainty associated with the projected changes.
Uncertainty in the projections exists because of the natural variability of the climate system, but also
because of the systematic errors and imperfections of GCMs. Another problematic aspect of GCM
projections of future climate change is the course spatial resolution of such simulations. Typically,
these models provide projections of future climate change at a resolution of about 200 km in the
horizontal. This resolution is too course to study the more detailed aspects of climate change over
an area as small as the Tshwane region. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to generate more
detailed projections of future climate change over areas of interest, through the downscaling of
GCM projections to high spatial resolution.
An ensemble of detailed projections of future climate change over southern Africa, obtained using a
regional climate model, is examined in this report. The model used is the conformal-cubic
atmospheric model (CCAM), a variable-resolution global atmospheric model developed by the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia (McGregor,
2005). When applied in stretched-grid mode, the model provides a flexible and computationally
efficient way of downscaling GCM projections to high resolution over an area of interest. The
projections described here were obtained by downscaling the simulations of six GCMs described in
Assessment Report Four (AR4) of the IPCC to high resolution (50 km in the horizontal) over southern
Africa. All six GCM projections are for the period 1961-2100, and for the A2 emission scenario of the
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The A2 SRES scenario is a low mitigation (high
24
emissions) scenario in which CO2 concentrations double (compared to pre-industrial values) by
about the mid-21st century. Detailed descriptions of the CGCMs used can be found in Malherbe et al.
(2013). The CCAM downscaling procedure over Africa is described in more detail by Engelbrecht et
al. (2011). The model’s ability to simulate the present-day characteristics of regional climate has
been rigorously documented for southern Africa (e.g. Engelbrecht et al., 2009) and for various other
climatological regions (e.g. Lal et al., 2008; Nunez and McGregor, 2007). In order to reduce
systematic differences between the model simulated present-day climate and observations, a biascorrection procedure was applied to the simulated monthly averages of rainfall and temperature.
The long-term (1961-1990) monthly averages of rainfall and precipitation of the CRU TS3.1 data set
was used for this purpose. Precipitation has been corrected with a multiplicative correction factor,
while all other variables have been corrected with an additive factor.
4.3 Climate vulnerability, impact and risk assessment
Hazard analysis was undertaken to get a better understanding of the hazards that affect Tshwane,
the areas at risk to the various hazards and factors that make them vulnerable. Various concepts and
tools of mapping vulnerability were considered (see Annexure 1). The mapping of physical and social
elements in Tshwane was conducted in a GIS environment to map biodiversity, water (surface and
ground), land cover, air quality, human health and human settlements. Most of the spatial data used
in the mapping of the physical elements was provided by City of Tshwane and SANBI GIS unit- BGIS.
Other sources of data include the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) and the Long
Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS). The climate change impacts of these sectors are based on
national studies done under LTAS and are mainly descriptive and were adapted for CoT. Risk
assessment was done using input from CoT workshops with sector departments and this was
triangulated with the secondary material to identify which hazards present the highest risk to the
CoT and which regions and sectors are at greatest risk. The project team used this information to
prioritise these risks depending on the magnitude and likelihood of their negative impacts on the
CoT and this information was to inform adaptation plan.
4.4 Adaptation options and adaptation plan methodology
Secondary material provided information on the wide range of adaptation options that the CoT can
explore in the now and in the future. These have been presented here and can be a starting point for
sector departments that currently do not have any adaptation projects to look at. In a workshop
with CoT sector representatives a questionnaire was administered to those who were present and
was also sent by email to those who could not attend the meeting. The questionnaire sought to
identify current adaptation actions/projects, capacity and/or constraints to adapt as well as
mechanisms available in the CoT to mainstream climate change. The questionnaire required
participants to validate sectors at risk to the different climate variables and highlighted sectors that
have taken up adaptation actions in the past five years. See Annexure 5 for copy of questionnaire,
workshop attendance register (Annexure 3a) and list of respondents (Annexure 3b). The project
team used the results of the risk assessment process to identify key adaptation actions that the CoT
should to address the most significant risks.
25
4.5 Monitoring, Reporting, Evaluation and Verification methodology
The climate change response strategies for other South African cities were reviewed. It was found
that MRVE frameworks were not included in these strategies. A literature review was done to get
background information on monitoring and evaluation and how it has been applied in the public
domain. In order to understand the context or need for cities to develop MRVE frameworks, the
Durban Adaptation Charter and the Hyogo Framework were also reviewed. The Charter highlighted
the need for signatories (Tshwane is signatory) to develop MRVE systems, whereas the Hyogo
Framework focuses on disaster risk management. The draft National Climate Change Response
Monitoring and Evaluation System which measures and monitors the country’s implementation of
climate change responses was also reviewed. It highlights national indicators that will be used to
assess effective implementation of climate change projects. The proposed MRVE framework for the
CoT was informed by the work done by Grafakos and Kaczmarski (2013).
4.5.1



Limitations
It was not possible to get community stakeholder input which would have enhanced several
sections of the report and its outputs e.g. prioritisation of risk, adaptive capacity and barriers
to effective adaptation and prioritisation of adaptation actions.
Input from sector departments was usually not sufficient to allow for better analysis of some
aspects such as the degree to which sectors were vulnerable to climate change and
identification of sectors that have taken a lead in climate change adaptation in the past five
years.
Time constraints made it difficult to engage all the sector departments to get their input into
this report.
26
5 Stakeholder Engagement
The National Climate Change Policy highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement and
partnerships in responding to climate change in South Africa. Effective and sustainable disaster risk
reduction and adaptation requires input from various stakeholders’ e.g. private sector, government
departments and civil society. Equipped with adequate information the private sector can for
example play a key role in funding climate response projects. Civil society can work with vulnerable
communities and ensure that early warning information is communicated timeously and also inform
government of local level climate change related issues (The Government of the Republic of South
Africa, 2011). Stakeholder engagement process was used here to assess how climate change
affected different stakeholders and sectors with in the metropolitan. It also helped in identifying the
vulnerable sectors/regions, existing and potential adaptation actions. This has an enabling effect for
the CoT, in that the knowledge held by different stakeholders about the city’s vulnerabilities and
capabilities can be used by local government to design better and practical adaptation strategies
that have public buy in.
5.1 Identification and consultation of stakeholders and community
Stakeholders who participated in this study were mostly from the CoT sector departments and
regions. The questions used to gather information from the stakeholders is included in annexure 2.
In one forum a few community representatives attended however it was decided that the full scale
community engagement would be done at a later stage and this should be done after the CoT has
done some climate change community awareness campaigns to equip communities so that they can
fully engage. The key outcome of the stakeholder engagement in this project was to make sector
departments aware of the importance of climate impacts in their spheres of responsibility. This
would give them a better understanding of the different adaptation actions that can be taken by
their respective sectors to reduce vulnerability. These are presented in a chapter of this report. It is
important to note that effective and efficient implementation of adaptation actions can only be
achieved when stakeholders understand how they are affected by climate change and see how they
can contribute towards climate change resilience.
Regional representatives who participated in this study identified key hazards affecting each region,
drivers and pressure of vulnerability, livelihood as well as coping strategies in the regions. They also
identified the institutions or organizations operating in the areas, including their roles. They also
contributed to the development of the city adaptation plan by identifying the risk factors that should
be considered for action. A list of the stakeholders that were engaged can be found in Annexure 3a
and 3b. The key issues emanating from this engagement are summarised in Table 3 below.
27
Table 3. Assessing community resilience of the CoT
Resilience
characteristics
What do we know about the
current status?
Leadership
Communities take the initiative to
assist those in need during
disasters (servant leadership).
What are the perceived gaps?
What are the challenges?
What are the elements of
resilience?
The mayor of the
municipality is driving the
issue of climate change
adaptation.
Perception of top-down leadership
when engaging communities.
Engage communities differently
(i.e. in a bottom-up nonpaternalistic manner).
Robust and cooperative
relationships between the
municipality and communities.
The municipality understands the
risks posed to it and communities.
There are initiatives and measures
in place to deal with eventualities.
The various sectors within
the municipality do take
the issue of climate change
seriously. A number of
regions were noted for
their resilience in coping
with disasters despite of
inadequate resources in
their disposal.
Perception of top-down leadership
when engaging communities.
Well –trained staff in the disaster
management unit.
The municipality has welldeveloped plans and
actions in place to deal with
disasters.
Not a good understanding of priority
risks specific to regions.
Top structures within the
municipality are aware of climate
change and championing
adaptation to it.
Agency
Knowledge
skills, and
learning
What are the
strengths/opportunities
in the CoT?
There is a lot of potential in the
indigenous knowledge sector that
can be taped on to integrate the
knowledge base.
Communities have skills
and assets to deal with
disasters
Servant leadership within
communities.
There are communication loopholes
between the city staff and existing
community initiatives especially in
the informal sector.
In some instances communities are
not informed about the municipality
plans in their area concerning climate
related issues.
Community asset pool still untapped
28
The ability to engage
communities differently
(fostering buy-in and
partnerships). Lack of funds
needed to build and sustain
existing initiatives.
Communities have an
understanding of climate
change.
The top-ten risks could create a
situation where other risks that
are a top priority in certain
regions are ignored.
The municipality has
knowledge about climate
change and its impacts on
different sectors and
communities.
Communities can respond
during certain events to assist
Resilience
characteristics
What do we know about the
current status?
What are the
strengths/opportunities
in the CoT?
What are the perceived gaps?
What are the challenges?
in some instances.
What are the elements of
resilience?
each other. They know what to
do and how to organise
assistance.
Values and
beliefs
Communities and the
municipality have different
values and beliefs.
The difference in values
and beliefs can be
harnessed to develop
the priority disaster list
for each region.
The top ten priority risks that are
used as a generalisation across
the municipality.
Communities have different
expectations that that of the
municipality. The expect
housing and the provision of
services such as water and
electricity. These expectations
are driving a different value
and belief system than the
one of the municipality.
Social
networks
Certain communities are able
to assist members in need
during disaster events.
Voluntary organisation
on the part of
communities.
Network of first responders
(volunteering and in professional
capacity)
How can the municipality tap
into and learn from such
activities?
A helping attitude.
Engaged
governance
The municipality do engage
communities.
Knowledgeable people in
the municipality talk to
the communities.
A top-down paternalistic style of
engagement.
Changing the engagement
style from top-down and
paternalistic to a more
embedded and cooperative
style.
A need to engage with one
another.
29
6 Projections of future climate change over Tshwane
6.1 Introduction
The African continent is thought to be highly vulnerable to future climate change, and the southern
African subcontinent is no exception. It is projected that temperatures over this region will be rising
rapidly during the 21st century, at almost twice the global rate of temperature increase. It is also
plausible for the region to become generally drier under climate change (e.g. Engelbrecht et al.,
2009; DEA, 2013a). Within this context, it is important to examine in some detail the projected
climate futures of the City of Tshwane, and the specific vulnerabilities of this region to extreme
weather events under climate change. An analysis of observed trends in climate and projections of
future climate change over the Tshwane region has been performed for this purpose.
6.2 Summary of Findings
A collection of high-resolution projections of future climate change over southern Africa under a low
mitigation (high emission) scenario has been analyzed to describe plausible climatic changes over
the City of Tshwane region during the 21st century. The ensemble of downscalings project a robust
trend of the Tshwane climate to drift towards a future climate regime that is significantly warmer
than the present state and that is also plausible to be drier. Specific findings include:

Under low mitigation (high emissions) the Tshwane climate is plausible to be 4-7 °C warmer
by the end of the century (far-future), compared to the present-day climate. Mid-future
temperature increases are projected to be in the order of 1-3 °C.
 Very hot days may increase from less than 40 per year in the present-day to between 100
and 180 days per year by the end of the century, with drastic increases already plausible by
the mid-century (60 days or more per year).
 It is plausible for the Tshwane region to become generally drier under climate change.
 There is evidence of potential increases in the annual number of extreme rainfall events
over the City, although these changes are not as persistent as in the case of rising
temperatures or very hot day frequencies.
Changing temperature patterns alone may pause significant new challenges to the City, including
increased energy demand in summer (to achieve human comfort in buildings and factories), human
health (increased heat stress), decreased crop yield (the maize crop is sensitive to the occurrence of
very hot days) and impacts on water security (increased evaporation) and quality. These potential
impacts of future climate change on Tshwane are discussed in more detail in Chapter 7 of this
report.
6.2.1
The present-day climate of Tshwane
The present-day seasonal cycle in rainfall and temperature over the Tshwane, as calculated from
gridded weather station data provided by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 19611990, is presented in 5. The particular data set used, CRUTS3.1, is described by Mitchell and Jones
30
(2005). The present-day seasonal cycles in rainfall totals, and in minimum, maximum and average
temperature, are depicted in Table 4 andTable 5Error! Reference source not found..
Tshwane is located in the summer rainfall region of eastern South Africa, and has an annual average
rainfall of about 670 mm. Figure 9 shows the location of Tshwane within northern South Africa.
Rainfall peaks during summer (December to February - DJF), whilst the winters (July to August – JJA)
are very dry (see Figure 10 and Table 4). Onset of the rainy season usually occurs in October, and
cessation usually occurs in April. Summers are warm, with an average temperature of about 22 °C,
whilst the winters are mild with an average temperature of about 12 °C (see Table 5). Most winter
days are characterized by sunny days, clear skies and cold nights. Minimum temperatures may
occasionally drop to below freezing point during winter, and frost occasionally occurs over the
region. This usually happens after a cold front has penetrated deep into the southern African
interior. About 80% of the summer rainfall over Tshwane occurs from tropical-temperate cloud
bands, and in particular the thunderstorms located within the cloud bands (e.g. Washington and
Todd, 1999). Isolated heat thunderstorms also occur frequently over Tshwane during the warmer
months. These storms are frequently associated with hail, damaging winds and flash floods occurring
over Tshwane (e.g. Dyson, 2009). Summer seasons with below-normal rainfall over Tshwane usually
occurs in response to El Niño events, whilst large-scale flooding and summers with above-normal
rainfall typically occurs during La Niña years (e.g. Landman and Beraki, 2012).
Figure 9. Location of Tshwane in relation to the north-eastern areas of South Africa.
31
Figure 10. The present day annual cycle in rainfall and temperature over Tshwane (calculated from CRUTS3.1 data set).
Table 4. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual totals of rainfall (mm).
Variable
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
Rainfall
13
192
325
141
671
These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station data of the CRUTS3.1
data set.
Table 5. The present-day climate of Tshwane: Seasonal and annual averages for minimum, maximum and mean daily
temperatures (°C) over Tshwane. These averages were calculated over the period 1961-1990, using the gridded station
data of the CRUTS3.1 data set.
32
Variable
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Annual
Minimum
temperature
3.9
12.5
16.1
10.7
10.8
Maximum
temperature
20.5
26.5
28.2
24.6
24.9
Average
temperature
12.2
19.5
22.2
17.6
17.8
6.3 Observed trends in the climate of Tshwane
The observed trends in rainfall and temperature over South Africa, including northeastern South
Africa and Tshwane, have been described in recent years by a number of comprehensive studies
(e.g. Kruger and Shongwe, 2004; Kruger, 2006). No significant trend in rainfall totals has been
detected over Tshwane over the period 1910-2004 (Kruger, 2006). Additional attributes of rainfall
over Tshwane, such as maximum number of consecutive dry days per year and the occurrence of
heavy rainfall events also exhibited no significant change over this period. However, there is a
significant downward trend in the maximum number of consecutive wet days per year (Kruger,
2006).
Temperatures, however, have been increasing significantly over recent decades. Analysis of the
CRUTEMP4 data set reveals an upward trend of about 1.8 C per century over Tshwane, over the
period 1961-2010. A very similar value is reported by Kruger and Shongwe (2004) for an analysis
performed for weather station data in the Tshwane region for the period 1960-2003.
In summary, with regard to changes detected in Tshwane climate over recent decades, there is little
or no evidence of any significant changes in rainfall. However, temperatures over the region are
rising rapidly, at about twice the global rate of temperature increase.
33
6.4 A regional context for climate change over Tshwane: projections of
future climate change over the north-eastern parts of South Africa
6.4.1
Projected changes in temperature over north-eastern South Africa
Rapid rises in the annual average near-surface temperature are projected to occur over northeastern South Africa during the 21st century. The projected changes are shown in Figure 11 for the
future time-slabs 2015-2035 (near-future), 2040-2060 (mid-future) and 2080-2100 (far-future),
relative to the baseline period 1970-2005. For each time-slab, the lower-range (10th percentile),
median (50th percentile) and upper range (90th percentile) of the projected changes are shown (as
calculated for the ensemble of projected changes). For the near-future, temperature increases of
less than 1 °C are projected by most ensemble members, with the upper range of the projected
changes more than 1° C, but less than 2° C. For the period 2040-2060, annual average temperatures
are projected to rise by 2.5 to 3.5 °C over most of the region, relative to the baseline period. Drastic
increases in average annual temperatures are projected for the far-future period. Increases of more
than 3.5 °C are projected across the ensemble, with most ensemble members projecting increases of
more than 4 °C over the western part of the domain shown. More moderate increases, of between
2.5 and 3.5 °C, are projected by most ensemble members over Mozambique. Generally, the pattern
and amplitude of projected temperature increases shows close correspondence across the different
ensemble members, indicating that the projected signal is robust. Drastically rising surface
temperatures may have significant impacts on north-eastern South Africa (and the Tshwane region)
including impacts on water quality (through associated rises in water temperatures in dams and
other reservoirs), water security (through enhanced evaporation), human and animal health (due to
increased heat stress during heat wave events) and crop yield (most crops grown in north-eastern
South Africa are sensitive to extreme temperature events). These aspects are discussed in more
detail for the Tshwane region elsewhere in this report.
34
Figure 11. Projected change in the annual average temperature over NE South:
(for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to 1970-2005. The 90th percentile (upper panel), median
(middle panel) and 10th percentile (lower panel) are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six CGCM projections, for
each of the time-slabs. The downscalings were performed using the regional model CCAM. All the CGCM projections
contributed to CMIP3 and AR4 of the IPCC, and are for the A2 SRES scenario.)
6.4.2
Projected changes in rainfall over north-eastern South Africa
The regional model ensemble projects a diversity of plausible 21st century rainfall futures for northeastern South Africa. These are displayed in Figure 12, which shows the projected change in the
average annual rainfall (mm) for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to
1970-2005. The upper range (upper panel), median (middle panel) and lower range (lower panel) of
the projections are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six GCM projections, for each of the
time-slabs. Most ensemble members project the western and central part of the region to become
generally drier during the 21st century (see also Engelbrecht et al., 2011; Malherbe et al., 2013), in
35
response to a general strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure belt over the region
(Engelbrecht et al., 2009; Malherbe et al., 2013). This pattern of drying projected for large parts of
the region is also related to the northward displacement of tropical lows and cyclones in the
simulations (Malherbe et al., 2013). The amplitude of the projected drying increases over time, and
for the 2080-2100 time-slab rainfall decreases of more than 40 mm/year are projected for large
parts of the region. A minority of ensemble members project that the eastern part of the region, in
Mozambique, may become wetter under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. However, the pattern of
significant drying over the western and central parts of the region is robust across the ensemble
members.
Figure 12. Projected change in average rainfall (mm) over NE South Africa:
(for the time-slabs 2015-2035, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100, relative to 1970-2005. The 90th percentile (upper panel), median
(middle panel) and 10th percentile (lower panel) are shown for the ensemble of downscalings of six CGCM projections, for
each of the time-slabs. The downscalings were performed using the regional model CCAM. All the CGCM projections
contributed to CMIP3 and AR4 of the IPCC, and are for the A2 SRES scenario).
36
6.5 Projected climate futures for Tshwane
6.5.1
Projected temperature and rainfall anomalies over time
The simulated annual temperature and rainfall anomalies over Tshwane under the A2 scenario, as
simulated by the CCAM ensemble for 1961-2100, are displayed in Figure 13.Error! Reference source
not found.. Annual average temperature increases of 4 to 7 °C are projected over the region for the
period 2080-2100 relative to the baseline period, under the A2 scenario, by the CCAM ensemble.
These anomalies are well beyond the natural temperature variability of the region (as represented
by the 1961-2005 purple and blue dots in Error! Reference source not found.. That is, temperatures
over the City are projected to increase drastically, reaching a regime never observed before in the
recorded climate of the City. For the mid-future period (2040-2060) temperature anomalies of
between 1 and 3 °C are projected under the A2 scenario, by the respective CCAM ensembles. The
mid-future anomalies are already beyond the range of the present-day climatology. For the nearfuture period (2015-2035), annual temperature anomalies under the A2 scenario are mostly within
the realm of present-day climate, although drifting out of it towards the end of the period, reaching
values of up to 2 °C. Rainfall anomalies projected for the City of Tshwane region exhibit a clear
pattern of drying under the A2 scenario, which strengthens over time. In the far-future (2080-2100),
the anomalies are starting to drift outside the range of present-day climate variability.
37
Figure 13. Projected annual temperature (°C,y-axis) and rainfall (mm, x-axis) anomalies for the period 1961-2100 over
the City of Tshwane, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline climatology, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2
scenario.
6.5.2
Very hot days
Figure 14 shows the CCAM-ensemble projected changes in the annual number of very hot days
occurring over Tshwane, for the period 1961-2100. A very hot day is here defined as a day when the
maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C. It can be seen that for the present-day period 1961-2010, few
years exhibit more than 40 very hot days in all the simulations. The ensemble projects a robust
pattern of drastic increases in the number of very hot days over the City. By mid-century (20412060), the threshold of 40 very hot days per year is frequently exceeded, with 60 occurrences per
year common to some of the projections. Drastic temperature increases are projected towards the
38
end of the century, with the annual number of very hot days ranging between 100 and 180 days
across the ensemble. The oppressive impact of such a drastic change should not be underestimated.
Indeed, the results imply that it is plausible for almost all days during the summer half-year to have
maximum temperatures exceeding the 35 °C threshold. This would have impacts on crop yield,
water security and quality, human health and energy demand in the City of Tshwane region.
6.5.3
Extreme rainfall events
It is often postulated that extreme rainfall events are to increase under the enhanced greenhouse
effect – a warming atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture, whilst increasing surface
temperatures may trigger atmospheric convection more frequently. However, regional changes in
circulation (e.g. increased subsidence, changes in the prevailing wind direction) may function to
suppress rainfall over particular regions. Here we examine the CCAM ensemble of projections to
objectively estimate potential changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events over the City of
Tshwane region. Extreme precipitation events are defined as 20 mm of rain falling within 24 hours
over an area of 50x50 km2. Rainfall events of this magnitude rarely occur over the South African
Highveld (see Engelbrecht et al., 2013) and are frequently associated with flash floods or more
widespread flood events. Unlike the case of very hot days, the ensemble of projections is not
indicative of a clear or persistent trend in the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events
(Figure 15Figure 14). However, all projections show that it is plausible for an increase in the
frequency of occurrence of extreme events to occur in the post 2010 period over the City of
Tshwane region.
Figure 14: Simulated annual number of very hot days (days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) for the period
1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario
39
Figure 15. Simulated number of extreme precipitation days (24-hr rainfall exceeding 20 mm over an area of 50x50 km2)
for the period 1961-2100 over the City of Tshwane, for the six CCAM downscalings under the A2 scenario.
40
7 Impacts and vulnerabilities
7.1 Introduction
In the context of current and future climate variability, the focus in this chapter is to create a risk
profile of the City of Tshwane and its regions, by prioritising social, economic and environmental
issues and needs highlighted as essential for a vulnerability risk assessment. Climate risks are
assessed for four key environmental factors, biodiversity, water, land (in terms of land cover) and air
quality. . In terms of the socio-economic factors worsening or increasing vulnerability, demographics,
human settlements, and human health were considered, with regional profiles developed from
literature and data provided by CoT. This includes the profiling of vulnerable population groups and
low income groups which reside in areas of environmental risk such as along flood plains and in
informal settlements (UNEP, 2011)1.
7.1.1
What are the key climate vulnerabilities in CoT?
The analysis to identify the key vulnerabilities in the CoT was conducted through the analysis of
environmental sectors, water, air, biodiversity and landcover and for the social sectors, human
settlement, human health and wellbeing and social vulnerability. In analysis of social vulnerability
included informal settlements, child headed and female headed households, education rates,
unemployment, households living below the poverty line, age dependency ratio and number of
people per household. It is important that the social vulnerability influences the coping capacity of
the vulnerable population, for example households with highest vulnerability will be the least able to
cope with any stressors including climate related stressors.
Key sectors identified include:
Human settlements: especially the informal settlements located in the flood lines, affecting a high
population numbers. Densely populated residential areas for example in Centurion are further
impacted by dolomite which increases vulnerability.
Water resources: the resource is already facing pressure of high demand from a growing population
and economic sector and being a scarce resource, climate change, especially increases in
temperature will exacerbate water availability. Extreme events such as floods will damage river and
wetland ecosystems affecting water quality and access. Impacts on water are far reaching to include
agriculture (food security), drinking water and sanitation services, economic and industrial
development, storm water and transport infrastructure to name but a few. Other threat to water
include acid mine drainage and pollution.
High energy demand: for both domestic and industrial use, as a result of increases in temperature,
for cooling. Reduced water availability will affect hydro -power generation, affecting the supply and
demand of energy. Floods also affect coal reserves.
1
See glossary of terms for at the beginning of the report for the terms used in this section of the report.
41
Agro-ecosystems and food security: Both food availability and accessibility will be affected
especially for household that rely on subsistence farming thus will be forced to purchase food. This
will increase their food insecurity. In terms of commercial farming, water for irrigation will be
reduced and often unusable if it is too warm due to increases in temperature. This will again affect
food security. Livestock will be affected especially by increases in temperature.
Ecosystem goods and services: Loss and degradation of biodiversity both terrestrial and aquatic is a
critical issue which will affect not only the environment but the people and the social economic
activities that depend on it.
The key vulnerabilities identified are not exhaustive and are not put in any order. These are
however ranked and prioritised in Chapter 6 of the report.
7.2 Environment
7.2.1
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is essential for ecosystem health, which in turn is key and central to human well-being.
Healthy ecosystems when intertwined with other working landscapes and open spaces provide the
ecological infrastructure of the country and are the basis of clean air, water, fertile soil and food
(DEA, 2013a). South Africa depends on healthy ecosystems for economic and livelihood activities
which include agriculture, tourism, income generation and subsistence activities (see Box 2 for more
on ecosystems services).
Natural ecosystems are facing pressures from land use change, resulting in degradation and invasive
alien species, exacerbated by temperature increases, rising atmospheric CO2 levels and changing
rainfall patterns, possibly as a result of climate change (DEA, 2013a). Healthy and well-functioning
ecosystems assist in building resilience and helping communities adapt to the adverse impacts of
climate change, for example, by providing a buffer from extreme events such as floods and droughts
and by reducing erosion and trapping sediments. Well-functioning ecosystems further increase
natural resources for a myriad of livelihoods, providing habitats for animals and plants which
consequently provide a safety net for communities during difficult times. Sustainably managed
ecosystems assist in the adaptation to climate change at local level (DEA, 2013a; Driver et al, 2012).
South Africa is well-versed with the functioning of its ecological structure, based in the good
understanding of its biomes, which provides a solid basis for an adaptation framework.
7.2.2
Biodiversity in the City of Tshwane
Tshwane consists of two biomes, the grassland and the savannah, with mixed Bushveld, Clay Thorn
Bushveld, Rocky Highveld Grass land and Moist Cool Highveld Grassveld as some of the vegetation
types found within the area. Tshwane has 19 protected areas and five conservancies (ICLEI, 2014).
The City of Tshwane geographic area includes mountain ranges and ridges, linking with its
neighbours through natural elements such as Magaliesberg, Witwatersberg/ Daspoort and the
42
Bronberg ranges that extend into North West and Mpumalanga Provinces. At least 40% of Gauteng’s
threatened plants species are located in the Bronberg and the Magaliesberg mountain ranges.
As previously mentioned, two dominant biomes found in the CoT, are the grassland biome covering
the southern area and the savanna biome dominating the central and northern part of CoT. The
major drivers influencing the vulnerability of biomes are land use change and climate change.
7.2.3
Threatened Ecosystems in the City of Tshwane
Ecosystem threat status highlights the extent to which ecosystems are still intact, or are losing vital
aspects of their structure, function and composition upon which their capacity to provide ecosystem
services relys on (Driver et al., 2011). Ecosystem threat is classified as critically endangered (CR),
endangered (EN), Vulnerable (VU) and less threatened (LT), with CR, EN and VU classifies as
threatened ecosystems. These are premised on the proportion of individual ecosystems that are in
good ecological status, relative to a series of thresholds. The ability to map and classify ecosystems
into different ecosystem types is essential in the assessment of threat status and protection levels as
well as to monitor trends over time (Driver at al., 2011).
Critical ecosystems in CoT are located mainly along the boundaries of the different regions and are
highlighted by the deep red tones (Figure 16) with the largest CR located between Region 3 and 4,
near Atteridgeville, and Region 4 and 6, south of Pretoria. Another sizable area of CR is located
within Region 6 as well as in Region 7. Smaller areas or fragments of CR are found around Mamelodi
(Region 4) and along the Region 1 and 3 boundaries. It is interesting to note that most of the CR,
with the exception of the fragmented areas and one in the savannah, are located within the
grassland biome, which has already been highlighted as under threat (Driver et al., 2011).
43
Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem status (adopted from BGIS, 2014).
Ecosystems classified as critically endangered (CR) have retained little of their original extent (length
and volume) in natural or near natural state as a result of modification of the natural state, and in
most cases the ecosystems have lost their natural structure and functioning and may have lost some
of the species (Nel and Driver, 2011). Further, these areas are susceptible to loss of the remaining
natural ecosystem types, with detrimental impacts and these areas need to be prioritised for
conservation (Driver et al, 2011; Nel and Driver, 2011).
There are three sizable spatial areas classified as Endangered in Tshwane, and these are located in
southern areas of Region 4 (one area) and in two areas in Region 7, with one located towards the
north of the region with the second towards the south. Two of these areas are located in the
grassland biome, while the area in the north of region 7 straddles the grassland and the savannah
biome. There areas are highlighted by orange tones (Figure 16: Biomes and threatened ecosystem
status). As mentioned earlier, ecosystems classified as endangered are close to becoming critically
endangered, and loss of natural condition or further disturbances of these areas should be avoided.
Further, these areas should be targeted for conservation (Driver et al, 2011).
The vulnerable ecosystem (VU) represents the largest spatial area in Tshwane, covering most of the
Regions and mainly located in the grassland biome, and covering most parts of Regions 6 and 7, as
well the southern parts and fragments in the northern parts of Regions 1, 2 and 5. Other fragmented
areas are found in Region 3. No VU areas were identified in Region 4. Vulnerable ecosystems are
classified as still having most of their original extent (area, length and volume) in natural or nearnatural state. These areas may have experienced some loss of habitat and or are deteriorated. These
44
areas may have lost some of their ecosystem structure and function and continual loss of natural
habitat and condition will consequently compromise their functionality (Driver et al., 2011).
7.2.4
Climate Change and Biodiversity
According to the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (DEA, 2013a), the grassland biome is highly
vulnerable to both land use and climate change, being ranked the second most vulnerable
(endangered), with low protection of this biome nationally. In terms of vulnerability to climate
change, the grassland biome is highlighted as a high priority for protection, restoration and research
to guarantee adaptation under future climate conditions. Due to the high altitude location of the
biome and its susceptibility to warming impacts, substantial change and loss of habitat is projected
for the grasslands (DEA, 2013a; Driver et al., 2011). Further, the grassland biome faces threats from
the encroachment of tree cover as a result of CO2 fertilisation and longer growing periods (DEA,
2013a).
The savanna biome, conversely, is projected to increase its geographic range, in some areas
encroaching and replacing the grassland biome (Driver et al., 2011). This projected increase in
woody cover is expected to transfer or change the structures of some areas of the savanna biome
towards woodland and forests, including invasion by alien species. The loss of the grassland biome is
likely to have adverse impacts on ecosystem goods and services, such as water delivery from the
highland catchments and grazing as well as adverse impacts on conservation and ecosystem delivery
as well as ecosystem processes such as wild fires.
7.3 Water Resources
Gauteng province is water scarce, in terms of both surface and ground water with the available
resources being fully developed and utilized (ICLEI, 2014). Water resources in the province are at risk
of pollution from previous unsustainable practices such mining, which is likely to have adverse
impacts on the economic development of the province (ICLEI, 2014). The province further imports
water from Lesotho through the Lesotho Highlands project. The CoT falls under the greater Limpopo
River Catchment and shares 12 quaternary catchments with neighboring municipalities, with
approximately 1487 km of water courses, 11 perennial rivers, 21 wetlands, nine non-perennial and
nine perennial pans, as well as 362 dams with Roodeplaat, Rietvlei, and Bon Accord Dams being the
biggest (ICLEI, 2014).
7.3.1
River Ecosystems
River ecosystems are important in the supply of fresh water, functioning as a storage facility in the
transportation of water and, together with manmade storage and transfer schemes, to bring water
to urban and rural areas, as well as irrigate croplands, remove waste and provide cultural and
aesthetic services.
45
River ecosystems in the WMA that supply CoT are under pressure from abstraction of water from
the rivers, and other changes to the timing and quantity of flows, due to damming or transfer
schemes between catchments. Issues such as pollution and the destruction of natural vegetation
along river banks, results in irreversible damage, exacerbating the provision of ecosystems services
by rivers ecosystems. Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) is another threat to the fresh water systems in CoT.
Fresh water is important for the provision of the following: food resources such as fish; pollution
dilution and water quality protection; nutrient cycling; biodiversity, which is of direct economic
benefit through ecotourism; bird and wildlife habitat; enhanced adjacent property value; flood
attenuation; sediment trapping; water storage and groundwater recharge (Nel and Driver, 2011).
7.3.2
Water Management Areas
Water resources for the City of Tshwane consist of a series of dams, rivers, wetlands and
groundwater resources. The City’s water resources straddle two water management areas, The
Olifants River sub catchment which covers parts of Regions 5, 6 and 7, and the Crocodile West and
Marico sub catchment, which completely covers Regions 1, 2, 3, 4 and parts of Regions 5 and 6
(Figure 17). The second sub-catchment is the Apies-Pienaars, consisting of the Apies and the
Pienaars river catchments, and the Moretele and Tiholwe rivers catchments. The Apies River
supplies mainly the densely populated City of Tshwane, including the Pretoria Central Business
District (CBD), parts of the central-eastern suburbs and most of the western Pretoria industrial and
urban areas. Increased high surface water runoff is directed into the Apies River from these areas.
Figure 17. Water management areas and surface water sources (BGIS, 2014)
46
The area of the CoT covered by the
Olifants river catchment consists of
mainly natural areas, agriculture and
fragments of forestry. Economic activities
in the sub catchment vary from mining,
metallurgic industries, irrigation, dry land
and subsistence farming to eco-tourism
with the provision of water for ecological
needs being key in the catchment (DWAF,
2004).
7.3.3
Wetlands
BOX 1 - WETLANDS
Conservation and Sustainable Use of Wetlands in
City of Tshwane for Economic and Societal Benefits
- Achieve no net loss of wetland or wetland
functioning
- Enhance and rehabilitate wetlands in areas of
continuing loss or degradation or functions, in
areas of occurrence and/or where critical levels
have been reached
- Recognition of wetland functions in resource
planning, management and economic decisionmaking regarding all programmes, policies and
activities
- Secure wetlands of significance within City of
Tshwane
- Promote the sustainable utilisation of wetlands in
a manner that enhances prospects for their
sustained and productive use by future
generations.
- Recognize the role that the City of Tshwane plays
in influencing wetlands that occur downstream
and outside the City limits.
The wetlands found in the Crocodile West
Marico water management area are
located in a myriad biomes resulting in a
remarkable rich diversity of wetlands,
regarding types, biodiversity and range.
Sizable peat lands and wetlands occur at
the Rietvlei Nature Reserve, Colbyn Valley
Wetland nature area and north of the
Tswaing Meteorite Crater (ICLEI, 2014).
The Working for Wetlands programme
has been actively involved in the
rehabilitation of degraded wetlands in Gauteng, including in the Rietvlei in Tshwane with the
objective of restoring ecosystems functions and sustainable use (See Box 1).
Wetlands comprise a crucial constituent of the natural system for the collecting, managing and
supplying of water to the environment for various uses (Driver et al., 2011). Wetlands accomplish
important ecological purposes such as water purification, flood attenuation, drought alleviation,
stream flow regulation, erosion control, the recharge of aquifers and water storage (Driver et al.,
2011). In addition, wetlands provide goods and services that have direct socio-economic and cultural
value, for example food, water and resources for agriculture and grazing. Wetlands further
contribute significantly to tourism and environmental education and, most importantly, to the
maintenance of a rich biodiversity, providing habitat to a large variety of animal and plant life (Driver
et al., 2011).
The National Biodiversity Assessment study (Driver et al., 2011), estimates that at least one third of
the wetlands in South Africa have been impacted by human activity. This excludes the wetlands that
have been irreversibly lost and can no longer be mapped. Gauteng is one of the worst affected
provinces in terms of modified wetlands. This is particularly concerning, given the importance of
47
ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change, especially in the face of possible increases in floods
and droughts in Gauteng (Driver et al., 2011).
7.3.4
Ground Water
Groundwater constitutes an essential resource in the Crocodile West and the Olifants subcatchments, especially for agriculture (irrigation) and in areas north-west of the catchment (DWAF,
2004) including areas in the City of Tshwane and rural areas. Further potential repositories of
ground water include large quantities of water for cooling of power generation, and smaller
transfers made to neighbouring water management areas (DWAF, 2004). While the population
projections for the rural areas highlight limited increases, population and economic growth are
expected in the mining towns.
The Internal Perspective Study (IPS) on the Crocodile West Marico WMA (DWAF, 2004) highlights the
importance of ground water utilisation as part of fresh water resources, and as a potential resource
to supplement water resources, especially for remote settlements, towns and villages far from
surface water sources, including many small communities, and subsistence farming activities (DWAF,
2004).
Groundwater sources are prone to pollution from human activities. These activities include the
leaching of fertilisers, the influx of nitrates, primarily a consequence of human habitation and
sanitation, possibly from the pit latrines and mining activities which are often responsible for
pollution of underlying aquifers. Ground water quality in Tshwane (Figure 18) is assessed according
to the measure of total dissolved solids2. Sources for TDS in drinking water may be natural, sewage,
urban runoff, or industrial waste water and chemicals used for water treatment including in some
cases plumbing (WRC, 2014; SARVA, 2014).
The measures of mean TDS in Tshwane vary from 0-133 mg/L in Regions 5 and 7, 134 to 350 mg/L in
Regions 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7, including urban areas such Pretoria, Centurion and other areas such as
Cullinan, Mamelodi and Atteridgeville. Areas with measures of 351-591 mg/L are located mainly in
the north of City of Tshwane, in Regions 1 and 2 and the most northern part of Region 5. Areas with
a TDS measure ranging from 591-900 mg/L are located in the central part of the study area, in
Region 1, and northern part of Region 7. While these figures indicate fairly good ground water
quality in the City of Tshwane, it is important to note that natural ground water is never pure; it
always contains limited quantities of dissolved gases and solids (SARVA, 2014) which may range from
100 mg/L or less for fresh water to 100 000 mg/L.
2
Dissolved solids comprise any minerals such as salts, metals, cations or anions dissolved in the water, while total
dissolved solids (TDS) consists of inorganic salts and cations such as calcium, magnesium, potassium and sodium, while the
anions are bicarbonates, chlorides and sulphates (SARVA, 2014; WRC, 2014).
48
.
Figure 18: Quality of Ground water
7.3.5
Climate change and water resources
The demand for water is anticipated to increase as a result of increases in economic development,
population growth, higher standards of living and increase in urban growth in areas such as CoT
(DEA, 2013a). Climate change and variability are expected to negatively impact existing water
challenges while creating new challenges, through increased rainfall variability, including more
frequent extreme weather events (droughts and floods), varying rainfall seasonality and general
warming which will result in increased surface water losses into the atmosphere (DEA, 2013a). This
will have adverse effects on economic development and livelihood strategies, while disrupting the
development of infrastructure, catchment management as well as future water demand (DEA,
2013a). South Africa is in the process of developing a climate change strategy for the water sector,
with the assumptions that the country’s water resources are highly developed, highly stressed and
are in some areas degraded; this is exacerbated by pollution and high water demand (DEA, 2013a).
The projections for City of Tshwane (Chapter 5) predict large temperature increases for the near
future (2015 – 2035) with temperature increases expected to reach values of about 2 °C towards the
end of the period and the mid future (2040-2060) with increases between 1 and 3 °C The
predictions also highlight drastic increases in the number of hot days by the mid-century (20412060). These projected temperature increases are likely to have detrimental impacts on water
availability and quality including surface runoff, which has presently been analysed at national scale.
49
Water quality is expected to be affected by increases in temperature, although studies on this are
limited. These impacts are based on the knowledge of water reaction to climatic drivers such as
temperature, evaporation, rainfall and hydrology. Increased air temperatures are likely to have
consequent increases in water temperature (DEA, 2013a). Warmer water temperatures will affect,
amongst others, the quality of water for irrigation, dissolved oxygen content, chemical and biological
reactions in water with wider impacts on health, due to favourable condition for incubation and
transmission of water-borne diseases (DEA, 2013a). Further, heat wave impacts on water as well
less oxygen content could lead to mortality of many fish species, including those that are sensitive to
temperature. Enhanced evaporation from open water sources such as dams, wetlands, soil and
plants, which occurs over and above the normal evaporation under current climate is expected to
increase. Enhanced evaporation will results in the concentration of salts and other elements on
water bodies especially when the levels are low, and in the soil when soil moisture is reduced due to
evaporation in the soil and evapotranspiration from plants (DEA, 2013a).
Extreme weather events influence changes in rainfall intensity affecting water quality, which in turn
impacts on catchment processes by increasing soil erosion and other pollutants that gather on the
surface of the catchment. Increased rainfall intensity will possibly lead to surcharging sewers once
sewerage pipes get blocked with washed-off debris or discharge from the partially treated waste
water from overloaded wastewater treatment works (DEA, 2013a). This is likely to have detrimental
human health impacts as well as affecting aquatic ecosystems. Flash floods are of concern in urban
areas with impacts including scoring and erosion of urban streams due to the heavy sediment load
and movement of organic matter deposited in the stream channels (DEA, 2013a). Droughts will likely
result in less water available for waste water discharges and irrigation return flows causing
downstream impacts for users and aquatic ecosystems (DEA, 2013a). As mentioned earlier, droughts
are expected to increase given the projected clear drier patterns of drying for the rainfall anomalies
on the City of Tshwane.
Given that rainfall is the main source of ground water, reduction in rainfall due to climate change
and variability may impact the recharge of ground water and ground water levels which contribute
to the base flow of rivers (DWAF, 2010; SARVA, 2014). Other climate change-related factors affecting
recharging of ground water include rainfall volumes, intensity and duration; as well higher
temperatures. Furthermore, concentrated storms may damage the small alluvial aquifers (DWAF,
2010). The decline in recharge could result in decreased ground water quality as there will be less
dilution, whereas flooding may lead to the mobilization of pollutants (SARVA, 2014).
Climate change is likely to affect the provision of water services in areas of the City of Tshwane, as
shown above, especially given the increase in the demand for water in urban areas for domestic and
industrial uses (DEA, 2013a). Reduced water provision may also adversely affect human health,
particularly for populations with poor water infrastructure and already high burdens of infectious
disease. The quality and availability of water to these populations is likely to be even more
compromised after heavy rainfall and flood events, resulting in increased risk of diarrhoeal diseases
(DEA, 2013a).
50
In terms of the socio-economic impacts of climate change on water, a myriad of economic sectors
will be affected. These include including human health, agriculture, power generation, forestry and
fisheries. In particular, the increase in temperatures will adversely impact the quantities required for
cooling procedures in industrial and domestic applications. Water availability will impact food
security, especially for commercial and small-scale as well as subsistence agriculture (DEA, 2013a).
7.4 Land cover
Land cover refers to physical land types. Land cover data records the spatial coverage of land by
forests, wetlands, impervious surfaces and agriculture among other land and water types. Water
types would refer to wetlands and open water bodies. Land use, on the other hand, documents how
the landscape is being used, or developed to meet human needs. While land cover is relatively easy
to measure, land use is not (NOAA, 2014).
Mapping of land cover provides information to assist in the monitoring of changes over time, to
evaluate past and current management decisions and their potential impacts, including assistance in
understanding human and natural phenomena impacts on the environment (NOAA, 2014). Some of
the factors that can be measured by means of land cover mapping include:

urban growth; water quality; predicted and assessed impacts of floods and storm surges,;
tracking of wetland losses; environmental and socio-economic impacts such as population
growth (NOAA, 2014).
Changes in land cover and in land use often highlight major impacts of biodiversity (as mentioned
earlier). In particular it may show loss of natural habitat due to urban growth and increased
agriculture. Land use and land cover aspect are therefore useful for planning and monitoring in
applications such as climate change (BGIS, 2014).
7.4.1
Land cover in the City of Tshwane
Land cover in City of Tshwane is mapped from the National Landcover Project (BGIS, 2014). The
national land cover map was updated in 2009 (SANBI, 2009). A total of seven land cover classes
have been identified in City of Tshwane, comprising cultivation, degraded, mining, natural,
plantations, built-up areas and water bodies. The built-up areas which are represented in yellow on
the map (Figure 19) include the densely populated urban areas such as Pretoria, Centurion,
Wonderboom and Mamelodi and settlements such as Hammanskraal in the north. The settlements
mainly occupy the western areas of the City of Tshwane, covering Regions 1, 2, 3 and 4. These
regions also include mining, cultivation, plantation and degraded land types. The eastern part of the
City of Tshwane comprises mainly cultivation and natural areas, with fragments of plantations,
mines and built up areas, covering Regions 5, 6 and 7. Built-up and cultivation areas account for the
largest areas of land cover in City of Tshwane (GDARD, 2011).
51
Figure 19. Land cover in the CoT
7.4.2
(Source BGIS, 2014)
Agriculture and Livelihoods
Gauteng is classified as a having high potential for agriculture, with high-to-moderately-high arable
land. Some of the high potential land is located in Region 6 and 7 of the CoT. There are opportunities
to develop this sector further, especially expanding the dry farming land, crop cultivation such as
maize and sunflowers. This includes the extensive chicken farming operations which are scattered
across the area, as well as cattle farming for beef and milk (GDARD, 2012a). The City of Tshwane
acknowledges the importance of food security as well as the contribution of agriculture in the
economic development of CoT, including resilient ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods (COT,
2013c), although the potential of the sector has not been fully explored. Based on the Framework
for a Green Economy (COT, 2013c), there is potential for agriculture in the urban and peri-urban
areas of City of Tshwane.
According to the CoT’s Medium-Term (2012-2022) goal for agriculture, the CoT intends to fully utilise
its potential for sustainable agriculture, in terms of land, human and financial resources available for
agriculture. In the long term (i.e. 2023 – 2055), the City of Tshwane plans to launch sustainable
agricultural villages in all the regions, to make appropriate management of land, water, and the
environment. The CoT further intends to establish commodity cooperatives for small holder farmers
and to provide support for the farmers through the development of value chains for economic
growth (COT, 2014).
52
7.5 Air Quality
Air Quality in Gauteng is driven by rapid urbanisation and industrial development, power generation,
transport sector and domestic fuel burning (GDARD, 2012). The increase in urban growth and
economic development consequently lead to a deterioration of air quality, which in turn affects
human health, the quality of life and the environment. Due to poor urban planning, residential (and
especially densely populated areas) are located near industrial areas, resulting in potential health
risks for the populations in these areas (GDARD, 2012).
Climate change comprises an emerging environmental challenge which is likely to have detrimental
impacts on air quality. Air quality is complicated by winds that transport pollutants long distances
from their source, increasing and extending the range of air pollution and increasing the
concentration of air quality concerns. Trans-boundary air pollution is an essential consideration,
given that air pollution does not follow political boundaries (GDARD, 2012).
Air quality ratings are one way of measuring air quality in local municipalities, and these ratings are
used to provide national government departments such as DEA with guidelines as to how to
suppport municipalities in managing air quality. Municipalities that have poor ratings often include
industrial and informal urban areas (DEA, 2013; GDARD, 2012).
7.5.1
Air Quality in the City of Tshwane
In compliance with the Air Quality Act, the City of Tshwane has developed an Air Quality
Management Plan to ensure cost effective and equitable reductions of emissions and health risk, the
improvement of air quality and the achievement and sustaining of acceptable air quality (CoT, 2008).
This should consequently minimise human health vulnerability, and support the reduction of
greenhouse gases in support of the CoT’s climate change protection programme (CoT, 2008). CoT
currently has seven permanent stations and four mobile stations recording air quality data, and all
stations are fully functional in terms of the data reported to the South African Air Quality
Information System (SAAQIS).
In terms of air quality ratings, only two ratings are found, with poor air quality for Regions 1, 3, 4 and
parts of 2 (Figure 20). These areas constitute the most urbanised area of the City of Tshwane, with
all the major residential areas located in these regions. The western part of the CoT is rated as
acceptable - in Regions 5, 6 and 7, with half of the western part of region 2, which is regarded as
natural and cultivation.
53
Figure 20. Air quality rating for the CoT
(SARVA, 2014)
The air quality monitoring stations mentioned above are used for monitoring ambient air quality and
wind direction, and are located in four of the five administrative regions, namely Booysens (CentralWest), Pretoria West (Central-West), Rosslyn (North-West), Mamelodi (East), and Olievenhoutbosch
(South) (Wright et al., 2011). The monitoring stations are placed in areas where they monitor
ambient levels of priority pollutants, comprising particulate matter (PM), sulphur dioxide (SO2),
ozone (O3), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)
from established and non-established sites across the City (Wright et al., 2011). SO2 and PM10 affect
human health, especially the respiratory system, while some such as benzene are carcinogenic.
Air pollutants and key affected areas in the City of Tshwane is summarised in Table 6 below (CoT,
2008, p6):
54
Table 6: Air Pollutants over CoT
Pollutant
Key affected areas in the CoT
Main health effects
PM10
Elevated concentrations over much of Tshwane
Respiratory and cardiovascular effects
NO2
Elevated concentrations expected close to busy
roadways (i.e. N1, N4, N14,R80); also Pretoria West
and Moot area
Respiratory effects
O3
No data
Respiratory effects
SO2
Elevated concentrations over much of Tshwane
(especially Pretoria West, Moot)
Acute (short-term) Respiratory effects
VOC
affected zones to be established through monitoring
and modelling
Upper respiratory irritation; some may
have chronic effects such as cancer (e.g.
benzene)
7.5.2
Air Quality and Climate change
The linkages between climate change and air pollution have not been extensively studied, but it is
anticipated that climate change may influence respiratory health impacts through altering of the
concentration of pollutants in ambient air by influencing weather and anthropogenic emissions
(DEA, 2013b). Meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water
vapour, wind speed and wind direction all influence atmospheric processes. Ozone and particulate
matter are two pollutants requiring increased focus as they are related to climate change. Climate
change may also influence the levels of pollution, for example high temperatures and humidity could
result in more pollutants in the atmosphere while high speed, clouds and precipitation could reduce
air pollutants (DEA, 2013b).
7.6 Extreme Events
The change and warming of global climate is being attributed to increase in the increased frequency
and intensity of some extreme events in recent decades, such as increases in extreme heat, intense
precipitation, and drought. Some of these changes include heat waves becoming longer and hotter,
with heavy rains and flooding being more frequent, and the changes between extremes and
drought, are more intense and more widespread (Climate Communication, 2014).
Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors. These
factors include anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability and socioeconomic
development. Understanding the multi-faceted nature of both exposure and vulnerability is a
prerequisite for determining how weather and climate events contribute to the occurrence of
disasters, and for designing and implementing effective adaptation and disaster risk management
strategies.
55
The character and severity of impacts are reliant not only on the events but are also influences by
exposure and vulnerability of those exposed and these impacts are regarded as disasters when they
result in widespread damage and severe changes in the normal functioning of communities or
societies (IPCC, 2012).
7.6.1
Extreme Weather Events
A present day increase in global mean temperature has resulted in hotter days, heavier rainfall and
flooding and stronger hurricanes and more severe droughts. There are three different types of
extreme weather events that affect the City of Tshwane. These are heat waves, flooding and hail
storms (CoT Sustainability Office, 2013).
All these are expected to increase with the changes in temperature and rainfall, according to the
climate change projections (see Chapter 3), the most common being floods.
7.6.1.1 Floods
Flooding has in the past affected all the regions in CoT and is an annual occurrence especially in the
low-lying areas. The worst affected areas are Region 1 and, to an extent, Region 3, which both lay
within the 50 year flood line. The vulnerability is exacerbated by the informal settlements located
within the flood line (see Figure 21). These same areas also have high population densities, which is
an indication that these impacts affect a sizable population in CoT. For example, Shoshanguve, a
township located in Region 1 battles with flooding every year due the low cost housing being built
on the floodline of the Soutspanspruit River (Mail and Guardian, 2014).
Figure 21: Informal settlements located on the flood line Source (Built Environment, 2014)
Flood line data analysis for the settlements and sectors further indicate that important infrastructure
such as schools, clinics, roads and bridges will also be affected, for example the Mabopane, a low56
water bridge which was washed away by flood water in, north of Pretoria in 2014 (see Figure 22)
(The Citizen, 2014).
Figure 22: Mabopane road and bridge washed away during heavy flooding in Northern Pretoria (Source: The Citizen,
2014)
Regions and areas most affected by flooding include:

Region 1 – Soshanguve, Hammanskraal, Ga-rankua and Mabopane,

Region 2 - Annlin and Sinoville,

Region 3 - Atteridgeville,

Region 4 - Centurion,

Region 6 - Mamelodi and Moretele
Other areas include Daspoort, Wonderboom and Mahube valley.
Figure 23 below is an example of properties and informal areas in flood line in Region 1 Soshanguve.
Soshanguve, Mabopane, Hammanskraal, also in the central and eastern areas at Daspoort,
Wonderboom and Mahube valley and to the South in Centurion are prone to flooding.
57
Figure 23: Informal housing in 50-year flood lines in Region 1 (Soshanguve) (CSIR Built Environment, 2014).
The City of Tshwane experiences annual flooding as a result of a combination of factors that
including ageing infrastructure, storm water drainage system that is unable to handle the large
volumes of water and to withhold demands posed by the increasing population and development,
geographical positioning of human settlements mainly as a result of the skewed apartheid spatial
planning which saw the poor and vulnerable communities being located in areas prone to flooding
and other natural disasters (CoT Sustainability Office, 2013).
7.6.1.2 Droughts
Droughts have been known to affect CoT and its impacts have been detrimental especially for the
farming sector. Regions that have reportedly previously been affected by drought:

Region 1 - Soshanguve, Winterveld (wards 9,12,19,24)

Region 3 – Atteridgeville (wards 51, 62, 68,71,72)

Region 6 - Moretele Park.
7.6.1.3 Heat Waves
Heat waves are characterised by prolonged periods of excessive heat, for more than five consecutive
days (WMO, 2013). While heat waves may not be detrimental to the economy, compared to other
types of severe weather extremes, they are extremely dangerous to humans, especially for the
58
dependent population3 which includes the elderly, children and animals. The dependency ratio in
CoT is 1:4. IDP, 2011). The City has been proactive in publishing heat wave warnings (CoT, 2014b).
Rather than referring to physical locations, the focus is here on susceptible populations such as:
-
children;
-
adults exercising outdoors;
-
people with respiratory diseases;
-
elderly people and people with disabilities; and
-
people with diseases like epilepsy (CoT, 2014b)
Similar to the impacts of droughts, plants can also be severely affected by heat waves, which are
often accompanied by dry conditions. These heat waves can cause plants to lose their moisture and
die. Heat waves are often more severe when combined with high humidity. The City of Tshwane
experiences heat waves during summer months, normally alternating with periods of heavy rainfall
while there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere (CoT-SACN, 2013).
7.6.1.4 Hail Storms
The City of Tshwane, due to its geographic location at an altitude of 1 740 m, and it climate is
susceptible to hail storms, which are a common occurrence in continental interiors and midlatitudes. The Magaliesberg mountain range which runs across the northern- side of the city
presents ideal conditions for the formation of cumulous clouds which produce thunderstorms that
are at times accompanied by hail (CoT-SACN,, 2013).
Hailstones have been known to result in severe damage, particularly to automobiles, aircrafts,
skylights, glass-roofed structures, livestock and crops. Although it has seldom been reported that
massive hailstones were the cause of concussions or fatal head traumas, hailstorms have been
responsible for costly and even deadly events throughout history (Wikipedia, 2014). Hailstorms are
not new to City of Tshwane. Table 7 describes recorded historical events.
3
The dependent population is regarded as children below the age of 15 and the elderly above the age of 64 years and is
either in school or on pension.
59
Table 7. Incidents of hailstorms in the CoT (CoT-SACN, 2013).
Most Severe & Costly Hailstorms in South Arica
Date
Location
Incident
17 November
1949
Pretoria, South
Africa
Hailstorm struck Pretoria West- hailstones of circumference 23 cm (diameter
7 cm) damaged windows or roofs on all buildings in the area, and broke 12000
large windows at the Iscor (now Mittal Steel South Africa) plant in the area, and
damaged hundreds of cars at the plant
1 November
1985
Pretoria, South
Africa
Major hailstorm striking central Pretoria and surrounding areas. Damage
estimated at R400m.
Pretoria, South
Africa
A heavy hail storm caused extensive damage within the CoT, largely striking the
poorest areas of the city and numerous power sources. The storm also dropped
hail stones that were of an approximate size of a person’s clinched hand. South
Africa’s Highveld is renowned for its late afternoon thunder storms during
summer; this hail storm was particularly intense, affecting over 44,800 households
in regions 1 and 6.
23 November
2013
7.7 Social Vulnerability
Numerous social and economic factors play key roles in the vulnerability as well as the coping
capacity and adaption of the different population groups to climate change. Factors such as
demographics, economic status, education and employment status as well as types of residences or
dwelling all contribute to this profile. In particular, the types of housing may either increase or
decrease vulnerability, with informal settlements as a case in point. The section below explores
settlement vulnerability in CoT, also in terms of its link with population distribution.
7.7.1
Human settlements
There are 150 informal settlements in the CoT. Many informal settlements lack the basic services
such as piped water and sanitation (many households share ablution facilities), electricity and health
facilities. The construction material of these dwellings also does not protect the resident population
from elements of extreme weather. These settlements may thus be regarded as areas of high risk
and vulnerability to extreme weather events such as floods, hail and heat waves.
From Figure 24, which shows the distribution of informal settlements in CoT, it is evident that these
are concentrated on the north-western side of the CoT including areas such as Ga-Rankuwa and
Soshanguve (Region 1), Atteridgeville (Region 3) and Mamelodi (Region 6). This spatial pattern
correlates with the map (Figure 21) which shows high population densities in the same areas.
60
Figure 24: Location of informal housing, backyards and traditional houses
Figure 25. Population density in the CoT.
Figure 24 and Figure 25provide an overview of the population and residential building distribution in
the CoT. Both figures clearly highlight the high concentrations of people and residences in the
following areas:

Region 1 – Ga-Rankuwa, Mabopane, Soshanguve
61

Region 3 – Atteridgeville (ward 3,51,62,68,71,72; pockets of high density residences and
people: CBD (ward 60), Lotus Gardens

Region 4 – Olievenhoutsbosch (ward 77), Mooiplaats (ward 61)

Region 5 –high density pockets: Refilwe (ward 5)

Region 6 – Mamelodi

Region 7 – with high density pockets: Zithobeni (ward 102), Ekangala (wards 103,104)
The distribution of high density residences in the east of Pretoria, Centurion and Irene are attributed
to higher density cluster houses (such as complexes, townhouses or new estate developments). The
areas of
Mamelodi, Atteridgeville, Ga-Rankuwa, Mooiplaas, Mabopane, Soshanguwe,
Olievenhoutbosh, Lotus Gardens, Refilwe, Ekangala and Zithobeni also host the majority of the
informal housing (informal dwellings and backyard housing) found in the CoT as depicted in Figure
26.
Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density clusters located on dolomite.
62
Dolomitic rock is found in Regions 3, 4 and 6. More than 300 0004 people reside on dolomitic ground
(Census, 2011 & CSIR, 2014) within Tshwane (see Figure 26. Informal settlements and high density
clusters located on dolomite.
There are significant clusters of high density residential areas (more than 20 housing units per
hectare) prevalent in Atteridegville, Saulsville, Mooiplaas and the Sub-places of Highveld, Die
Hoewes, Laudium and Pierre van Ryneveld. However the socio-economic status of these various
communities differ quite vastly with Mooiplaats, Atteridgeville and Saulsville hosting the majority of
the 32300 5informal houses (CSIR, 2014) that are located on dolomitic rock.
7.7.2
Social Vulnerability
A composite social vulnerability index was created, taking nine factors into account. The nine factors
that have been mapped for this purpose have been included in an Atlas report6 and these include;
1) the percentage of informal households,
2) the percentage of female headed households,
3) the percentage child headed households,
4) the percentage of adults (older than 25 years) with no education,
5) unemployment rate,
6) the percentage of households with more than four people per room,
7) percentage people living below the poverty line,
8) the age dependency ratio and
9) population density per StatsSA sub-place
Dark green depicts areas that have relatively no vulnerability while light green depicts areas of very
low social vulnerability. Sub-places in yellow displays areas where there is a presence of socially
vulnerable communities, orange indicate areas of high social vulnerability and dark red shows areas
of extremely high social vulnerability. Areas in white were excluded due to the low population
densities found in these areas as depicted in Figure 27.
4
Calculations done based on the intersections of the census data and the dolomite areas
5
Informal housing includes informal dwellings, traditional houses and informal backyard structures.
6
This is a separate document of maps prepared as part of this project
63
Figure 27. Social vulnerability index.
7.7.3
Human health
The impacts of climate change on human health resulting from expected increases in the frequency,
intensity and duration of extreme weather events are likely to have a major effect on public health
(DEA, 2013). Human exposure to climate change may be direct and/or indirect, and will be
determined by the character, magnitude and rate of climate variability (WHO, 2003 in DEA, 2013).
Direct climate change exposures include atypical temperature and precipitation, storms, and natural
disasters (Samet, 2009; WHO, 2009a in LTAS, 2013). Indirect exposures may include increased air
pollution, pollen production, constraints in the agriculture sector leading to food shortages and
malnutrition, an optimised environment for the production and distribution of disease vectors, and
ecosystem changes leading to loss of ecosystem goods and services (Samet, 2009; WHO, 2009;
Abson et al., 2012 in DEA, 2013). Climate change may thus also affect social and environmental
determinants of health such as clean air, safe drinking water, and sufficient food and secure shelter
(WHO, 2013). Given these wide range of exposures, it is important that both direct and indirect
climate exposures are addressed when dealing with vulnerability to climate change (DEA, 2013, p
24).
64
7.7.3.1 Extreme heat
Extreme high air temperatures as predicted will contribute directly to deaths from cardiovascular
and respiratory disease, affecting elderly people in particular (WHO, 2013). High temperatures also
result in increased levels of pollutants in the air such as ozone that exacerbate cardiovascular and
respiratory disease (WHO, 2013). Pollen and other aeroallergen levels are also elevated in extreme
heat, which can trigger asthma (WHO, 2013). Local studies on heat stress are however limited. There
are projections from the present to 2100 on the potential impact of climate change on increasing the
number of “hot days”. The study indicates that heat-related impacts (heat stress symptoms) are
likely to increase in the future, and that these impacts are likely to be exacerbated by socioeconomic vulnerability of the population. However, the relevance of this temperature-health impact
relationship and the vulnerability factors applicable to the South African population are not well
documented.
7.7.3.2 Droughts
Rainfall patterns are likely to be increasingly variable, thus affecting the supply of clean, fresh water.
This in turn can compromise hygiene and increase the risk of diarrhoeal disease (WHO, 2013). In
extreme cases, water scarcity results in drought and famine. It has been predicted that, by the
2090s, climate change is likely to widen the area affected by drought, double the frequency of
extreme droughts and increase their average duration six-fold (Arnell, 2004 in WHO, 2013).
7.7.3.3 Floods
Floods have also been increasing in frequency and intensity, contributing to contaminated
freshwater supplies, a heightened risk of water-borne diseases and breeding grounds for diseasecarrying insects such as mosquitoes. Physical hazards from floods include drowning and physical
injuries, damage to homes and disruption in the supply of medical and health services (WHO, 2013).
The combination of increased temperatures and variable precipitation contribute to a decrease in
the production of staple foods which will increase the prevalence of malnutrition and undernutrition (WHO, 2013).
7.7.3.4 Climate change and vector-borne diseases
According to the LTAS Human health report (DEA, 2013b), little is known about disease vectors in
South Africa. Vectors of concern include mosquitoes (malaria, dengue fever and yellow fever) and
ticks (Lyme disease). According to the World Bank, the risk from these diseases is expected to rise
because of climate change due to the increased extent of areas with conditions conducive to vectors
and pathogens (World Bank, 2013 in UNEP, 2014; WHO, 2014). There was however, a significant
decrease in the cases and deaths of malaria recorded in South Africa between 2000 and 2011 (DOH,
2012 in DEA, 2013b).Tshwane has had very low or no malaria cases.
65
Changes in temperature and precipitation directly affect vector borne diseases (VBD) and zoonotic
diseases (ZD) through pathogen-host interaction (e.g. VBDs are transmitted by the bites of infected
mosquitoes and other insects (vectors), and indirectly through ecosystem changes and species
composition. Where mosquitoes are the vectors, temperature plays an important role. The optimum
temperature for transmission is an annual average of 22 °C (DEA, 2013b, p25), with the parasite not
developing at temperatures below 16 °C and the mosquitoes not surviving temperatures above
40°C). There is an association between availability of water (for breeding) and rainfall and an
increase in mosquito population, thus more droughts will have the opposite effect (DEA, 2013b,
2013). However, heavy rainfall may wash breeding sites away, while a little pool of stagnant water
after normal rainfall could become a breeding site, thus the association is not linear (Thomson et al.,
2005 in DEA, 2013b). The life cycle of pathogens inside vectors is shortened under warmer
conditions. (Table 8 from Friel et al., 2011), indicates the direct and indirect pathways from climate
change to non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
Table 8. The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on NCDs (from Friel et al., 2011)
Climate change
impacts
Pathway for climate
change to NCDs
NCD outcome
Direction of health
risk
More frequent and
increased intensity of heat
extremes
Heat stress
Cardio-vascular diseases
(CVD)
Increased risk
Increased temperatures and
less rain
Higher ground-level O3 and
other air pollutants
CVD;
Increased risk
Direct
Respiratory disease
Increases in airborne
pollens and spores
Changes in stratospheric O3,
precipitation and cloud
cover
Decreased exposure to solar
UVR
High winter temperatures
Autoimmune diseases
Reduced risk
Skin cancer
CVD;
Reduced risk
Respiratory disease
Extreme weather events
(fires, floods, storms)
Structural damage
Injuries
Increased risk
Drought, flooding
Impaired agriculture,
reduced flood yields,
nutrition insecurity
Poor general health
Increased risk
Extreme weather events
(fires, floods, storms)
Trauma
Mental health (posttraumatic stress disorder)
Increased risk
Extreme weather events
(fires, floods, storms)
Impaired livelihoods,
impoverishment
Mental health
(anxiety/depression)
Increased risk
Indirect
66
7.7.3.5 Vulnerable populations in the context of climate change
While all populations will be affected by climate change, some are more vulnerable than others ,
such as the elderly and children (due to their physiological development), people with pre-existing
medical conditions and those considered ‘special needs populations’ such as the physically or
mentally challenged (WHO, 2013). Vulnerable population groups have decreased ability to cope
with climate change and the socio-economic status of communities is as important as their
susceptibility/sensitivity in terms of their coping capacity (WHO, 2013).
Health impacts associated with extreme events for vulnerable populations in the City of Tshwane
The vulnerability of the seven regions to three climate change aspects was assessed. These aspects
were: a gradual change in climate (increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall), extreme
precipitation (such as flash floods) and extreme heat events (heat waves)
Factors used in the vulnerability assessment were selected for their potential contribution to human
health and well-being. Regions were then ranked as high, medium or low and summarised in Figure
28. A more detailed description of the process is included in Annexure 4.
67
Ranks for two scenarios
Climate
events
considered
Before considering population size of region
High
Medium
Low
Region 1
Region 2
After considering population size of
region
High
Medium
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 3
Region 4
Gradual
climate
change
Region 5
Region 6
Region 7
Region 6
Region 1
Region 2
Region 4
Region 5
Region 7
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 3
Region 4
Extreme
precipitation
Low
Region 4
Region 5
Region 5
Region 6
Region 6
Region 7
Region 7
Region 1
Region 1
Region 2
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
Extreme
Temperatu
re
Region 3
Region 4
Region 5
Region 6
Region 7
Region 7
Figure 28: Ranking of regional vulnerability to climate change before and after population size adjustment.
68
8 Risk assessment and prioritisation
There are several climate change related risks that the CoT is faced with due to changes in rainfall,
temperature and extreme weather events. A risk identification and prioritisation process was
undertaken to identify the potential primary (or initial) impacts that are relevant to the CoT. This
was followed by an evaluation of the potential health, environmental, social and economic
consequences arising from the initial impacts. Risks were identified by considering the input from
the stakeholder engagement process, as well as relevant literature evaluated for the project. Below
is a summary of the findings of this process and of this chapter.
8.1 Findings: Risk Assessment and prioritisation
It was necessary to consolidate the risk factors identified in the screening process below (see
chapter 7.2) to allow for adaptation actions to be identified. Eight priority risk factors emerged out
of that process and these are;
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes
Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
The risk factors above highlight the vulnerability of sectors to the different weather and climate
variables and at times a single sector maybe vulnerable to all three variables i.e. temperature,
rainfall and extreme weather events. Chapter 4 of this report discusses the vulnerability of these
sectors in detail. Biodiversity, infrastructure, water, human settlements, energy and human health
are the key vulnerable sectors in Tshwane which adaptation should focus on and have been put on
Action A rated list (see Section 7.2 for description). Sink holes are a non- climatic risk factor but it is
exacerbated by a climatic factor i.e. extreme rainfall events and floods especially in areas such as
Region 4 (See map 4.11). Sinkholes emerged in the Garstfontein area as a result of excessive rainfall
in November-December 2013. It should be noted that risk factors on level B and C rated list should
not be ignored as they also relate to the level A Action rated risks. The following section is the
adaptation plan for level A rated priority risk factors.
69
8.2 Prioritisation of key risks
After identifying risks the next step then is to prioritise these risks depending on the magnitude and
likelihood of their negative impacts on the city and this information will be used to inform
adaptation actions for the city in the next chapter. Likelihood has been defined as probabilistic
estimate of the occurrence of a single event or of an outcome, for example, a climate parameter,
observed trend, or projected change lying in a given range (IPCC, 2012). Magnitude refers to the
scale of impact should a disaster occur. A 3x3 matrix of Likelihood vs Magnitude has been used to
rank these risks on a scale of 1-low, 2- medium and 3-high (Figure 29). The matrix is used here as an
initial screening activity to identify risks which require more detailed analysis and to which
authorities could pay attention to in disaster risk reduction and management (CoJ, 2009). Letters
A,B,C and D highlight the different action levels.
Figure 29. Likelihood and magnitude matrix
The action level A in Figure 29 above represents the risk factors whose impact on the city are
projected to be high thus authorities should prioritise for immediate action. Level B represents risk
factors that should be adopted with resources and current projects/programmes that are being
undertaken by the city. Level C refers to those risks that need to be periodically monitored to assess
if level of risk has changed. Lastly level D refers to those risk factors that are not significant for the
CoT hence no action is required. All risk factors where prioritised and from that assessment the
following were identified as the key areas which should be prioritised for Action level A.
Priority risks associated with changes in t emperature
1.
2.
3.
4.
Loss of biodiversity and habitat
Increased food insecurity and loss of livestock
Increased pollutants have an impact on air quality
Human discomfort from increased temperatures
70
5. Increased demand for energy for heating or cooling
6. Increased risk and incidence of vector bone diseases, pests and pathogens affecting human
and animal health
Priority risks associated with changes in rainfall
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Loss of biodiversity especially in the grassland biome
Decreased productivity of agro-ecosystems
Less rainfall has impacts on surface and ground water sources
Impact on fresh water ecosystems
Less water available for domestic, industrial and agricultural use (water insecurity)
Reduced benefit of ecosystems services from natural resource based activities such as
agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Priority risks associated with extreme weather events
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Increase water stress for biodiversity and socio-economic activities
Changes in quality and quantity of water as water sources get contaminated with effluents
Human discomfort due to increased exposure to heat waves
Damage to infrastructure and public works (communication systems, roads, bridges)
Flooding of human settlements
Failure of sewage and storm water systems during extreme rainfall
Increased hail damage to cars, solar geysers business and residential property
Increased risk of sinkholes due to intense storms and floods
8.3 Adaptations options for key sectors
Adaptation generally refers to the changes in bio-physical, social and/or economic systems in
response to an actual or expected climatic impact and its effect (Mukheibir and Ziervogel, 2006).
Adapting to climate change requires both human and natural systems to adjust to actual or expected
changes in climate and associated effects and build resilience through better decisions about
managing our built and natural environment and taking advantage of opportunities. As mentioned
earlier planning for climate change adaptation requires an understanding of the current risks and
vulnerability as well as the projected changes/ risks in the future. This information can be derived
from primary and secondary data on current and future climate projections, stakeholders at risk as
well as those who play a role in response actions.
The South African government is working together with the private and public sector (including
communities) on reducing greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation). However some changes in climate
are inevitable. The City of Tshwane like many parts of the country has also been experiencing
climate change related disasters and extreme weather events. In recent years heat waves have been
experienced across the City and in the province with weather alerts being issued to the public
71
(January 2013 and 2014 heat waves). Flash floods have caused damage to bridges and roads often
resulting in road closures in areas such as Centurion in March 2009; September 2009; December
201; January 2013 and March 2014 as an example (Floodlist, 2014). Hailstorms have also ravaged
through the City causing major destruction to both private and public property such as roofs,
windows, solar heating systems and cars (November 2013 hailstorm affected about 44 800
households in areas such as Mamelodi and Soshanguve). This illustrates the need to manage this
risk by adapting to these changes and projected changes in the future.
In order to develop sustainable adaptation options there is need to have an understanding of past events, their effects
events, their effects and how people have responded in the past i.e. their adaptive capacity. Certain sectors
sectors representatives indicated that they did not have adaptation projects hence options are found in
found in
Table 9 to
Table 17 and could be adopted by different sectors in order for them to meet their development
priorities. Sectors such as transport and housing and human settlements already have some
mechanisms and development projects in place but they need to be reviewed and refined where
possible. This section also requires regular revision and refinement as research and stakeholder
engagement occur in the future. Sector specific vulnerability information was obtained from
workshops conducted with City of Tshwane sector department representatives and secondary
material. Secondary literature is also used here to identify possible adaptation options for each
sector and it is anticipated that this would help sectors select possible adaptation options in the
future. Adaptation options from the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios reports are also included.
72
8.4 Physical sectors
8.4.1
Natural Environment
Table 9: Natural environment
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options

Temperature


Increased risk and incidence of fires
Increased risk and incidence of vector bone diseases, pests and
pathogens

Loss of biodiversity- including forestry, fisheries and livestock
Rainfall

Loss of biodiversity especially in the grassland biome

Productivity of rangelands
Extreme weather events



Droughts and heat waves increase water stress for biodiversity
and can increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires
(Schneider et al, 2007)
Potential increase in global warming due to the release of
accumulated carbon from soils and biosphere into the
atmosphere as a result of prolonged droughts and fires
(Schneider et al, 2007)
Loss of fresh water ecosystems and species
Change of land cover and increased invasion of alien species

Potential spread of pests and diseases

73








Vulnerability assessment and mapping of
vulnerable areas including wetlands, floodplains
and informal settlements
Monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gas
emissions
Early warning system to inform stakeholders of
impending disasters such as hailstorm, heat
waves, floods and droughts.
Wetland rehabilitation and management
Removal of alien plants and replacing them with
indigenous plants
Build capacity with in communities to engage in
green jobs
Protect fresh water habitats and resources to
promote growth of marines species
Rebuilding over exploited fish resources and
affected ecosystems
Raise awareness to the public on ecosystem
based adaptation and how they can be involved
8.4.2
Air
Table 10: Air
Key Vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options
Temperature

Legislation to reduce ambient particular matter, ozone
and sulphur dioxide


Air quality management guidelines

Provide poor communities with alternative sources of
energy for heating and cooking

Invest in research to improve understanding on impact of
changes in other climate variable on air quality

Early warning system to raise alert the prevalence of
disease caused by air pollutants


Increased temperature have potential to increase
pollutants such as particulate matter, sulphur
dioxide and carbon monoxide
Increased pollutants have an impact human health
is exacerbated by socio-economic factors resulting
in acute respiratory infection, chronic respiratory
diseases and TB
7.1.1
Raise awareness with public on climate change, the impact
of burning fossil fuels on air quality and human health
Water
Table 11: Water resource
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options

Temperature


Decrease in water quality could lead to water
insecurity as rivers, dams and other water sources
dry up due to increased evaporation

Increased salinity of dams/lakes due to over-use
and decrease in groundwater recharge which can
also be attributed to reduction in rainfall.


Rainfall





Less rainfall has impacts on the hydrological cycle
and could reduce the water available in both
surface and ground water sources
Possible reductions in mean flows of rivers
Impact on fresh water ecosystems
Less water available for domestic, industrial and
agricultural use


Extreme weather events

Changes in quality and quantity of water as water
sources get contaminated with effluents
74
Early warning system to inform municipalities of
impending floods and droughts e.g. increasing
storage capacity in drier periods.
Improve coordination with other sector departments
particularly when developing sector specific
adaptation responses
Wetland management
Community awareness raising campaigns on climate
change, water conservation and adaptation manual
Climate change awareness cmpaigns for all
stakeholders in the trans boundary basin
Upgrade of infrastructure to monitor water and curb
losses due to leakages
Rainwater harvesting for household and agricultural
use

Make use of waste water or water from sewage
treatment


Water restrictions for some activities

Increase adaptive capacity of institutions responsible
for water management and governance
Water pressure management- reduce water lost
through leakages by decreasing the amount of water
in pipes during off peak times
8.5 Social-economic sectors
8.5.1
Human health
Table 12: Key vulnerabilities and adaptation options related to Human health
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options
Temperature

Increased risk and incidence of VBZD pathogens in host
and vector populations (mosquitos, ticks) resulting in
vector-borne diseases in humans.

Increase in non –communicable cardiovascular and
respiratory diseases such as asthma and bronchitis as a
result of increased pollution and temperature
Increase and spread of vector bone diseases, pests and
pathogens




Increase resources (health supplies, food supplies and
human resources) for emergencies such as floods and
hailstorms

Awareness raising and training communities on fire
fighting and fire rescue skills
Increase public awareness on malaria, cholera and
other diseases and how to manage these
Multidisciplinary ecosystem-based studies to identify
hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest
potential to affect human populations under climate
change scenarios.
Keep records and monitor health data
Monitoring air quality
Increase investment in research on the impacts of
climate change on diseases and human health
Research and technologies to improve food
preservation and storage
Diversifying in food crops to allow for systems to be
resilient in the event of a disaster that affect a
particular food crop e.g. maize
Community outreach programme to educate people
on the health risks of increasing temperature.



Food insecurity and malnutrition
Increased demand on health system (e.g. medical
supplies, hospitalisation)
Extreme weather events






Upgrade sanitation systems to curb seepage of sewage
into underground water and the spread of disease


Increased risk of death and injuries due to fires

Increased demand on health system
Rainfall



Impact on air quality which results in increased
exposure to pollutants which causes eye irritation,
acute respiratory infection and chronic respiratory
diseases
Human discomfort due to increased exposure to heat
waves and frosts
Disruption on food supply could result in increased
food shortages and malnutrition especially in areas
where subsistence farming is used for food security
Injuries as a result of exposure to floods and hailstorm
for example November 2013 hail in the CoT
Increased illness and deaths due to diseases such as
cholera
Drowning as a result of disasters such as floods and
storms


75
8.5.2
Infrastructure (e.g. roads, bridges and storm water drainage system)
Table 13: Infrastructure
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options
Temperature

Mapping of vulnerable areas as well as the relocation
of existing developments in high risk areas

Retaining of storm water through rain water tanks,
penetrable pavements and green roofs
Upgrade ageing infrastructure (e.g. in Region 1) and
maintain storm water in all regions to keep them clear
of any sand and rubbish which often contributes to
floods
Use heat resistant material for construction of roads
and maintain these regularly
Ensure adequate budget for maintenance of
infrastructure such as roads and storm water drainage

Drying up of dams and other water sources which can
become redundant
also affecting terrestrial
biodiversity

Deterioration of heat sensitive infrastructure such as
roads
Extreme weather events


Changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme
weather events such as flash floods and hailstorms can
damage to infrastructure and public works ( e.g.
communication systems, recreational facilities, roads
and bridges)

Increased expenditure on repairs to and rebuilding of
public infrastructure

Failure of sewage and storm water systems during
extreme rainfall

Spend more money purifying sewage that has been
infiltrated by rain
8.5.3


Energy
Table 14: Energy
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options

Assessing and investing in different renewable
energy options e.g. bioenergy, solar
Rainfall

Solar water heaters


Thermal heating of low cost houses

Smart meters to encourage users to manage
electricity well

Community awareness programmes to educate them
on energy conservation and alternative energy
sources


Improve material used for solar water geysers
Temperature

Increased demand for energy for heating or cooling
Decreased rainfall has an impact on generation of
hydro electricity
Extreme weather events


Loss and damage of energy supply infrastructure (e.g.
disruption of Eskom powerlines, coalfields getting
soaked with water)
Damage to solar water geyser equipment by hailstorm

Increased demand for energy
76
Efficient appliance programmes (kettles, energy
saving lights) to reduce use of non-renewable energy
8.5.4
Human settlements
Table 15: Human settlements
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options

Temperature

Discomfort especially in homes which are not insulated

Rainfall


Water shortages


Decrease in water pressure which also affects those
who use water tanks
Extreme weather events





Damage to buildings (roof, doors and windows)
especially for low cost houses where building material
is not SABS approved. Affected by flash floods, tropical
cyclones, strong winds and hailstorms
Damage to houses with asbestos which ends up being
dumped and affect the environment and human health
Loss of human life
Flooding in homes can lead to loss and damage to
personal assets such as fridges, stoves, books,
photographs and identity documents




Upgrading (or relocation) of informal settlement
infrastructure in areas that are vulnerable to flooding
e.g. eastern parts of region 1
De-densification of informal settlements to reduce fire
risk e.g. Soshanguve
Densification of formal settlements e.g. multistory
buildings
Encourage mixed land use developments e.g. CoT
urban core project
Fire breaks between vegetation and residential areas
Increase the quality of social houses to ensure they
have ceilings to keep them warm in cold months and
cooler in the hot months
Improve the quality of building material used for
building low cost houses so that its durable
Upgrade of roof for homes with asbestos e.g.


Upgrade sanitation systems

Restrict development within flood lines
Increased expenditure for individuals and local
government on recovery and repairs
77
Ensure adequate
infrastructure
budget
for
maintenance
of
8.5.5
Social and economic development
Table 16: Social economic development
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Adaptation options

Temperature


Reduced productivity of workers due to increased
exposure to high temperatures, disease and other
health risks.

Productivity of natural resource based activities such
as agriculture, fisheries and tourism are likely to
decrease
Rainfall



Increased likelihood of droughts can affect livelihoods,
food prices and food security e.g citrus production in
Winterveld

Reduced productivity in subsistence rain-fed
agriculture

Reduced benefit of ecosystems services from natural
resource based activities such as agriculture, forestry
and fisheries

Overharvesting of natural resources to meet
livelihoods needs

Social discontent

Forced migration/ displacement of communities

Change in land use
Extreme weather events

Floods can potentially result in damage to livelihoods
and public infrastructure used for social and economic
development

Loss of revenue for businesses and livelihoods e.g
tourism as people select destinations with less risks

Increased insurance claims which results in increased
insurance premiums

Increased livelihood insecurity, resulting in assets sale,
indebtedness, out-migration and dependency on food
aid






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Risk and vulnerability assessments and mapping of
vulnerable social groups, regions and economic sectors
Monitoring of hazard trends location, frequency and
magnitude within the CoT and neighboring areas
Awareness raising in communities on climate change
risk and response strategies (including resources
available) for all regions
Training of community volunteers to assist in the event
of a disaster which also provides them with skills that
they can use to look for jobs
Curtail urban sprawl to avoid uneconomic spread of
development which will be difficult to provide with
basic services e.g. region 1
Promote investment community food productionurban gardens which promote environmental
conservation practices especially in areas such as
region 2 and 3
More efficient management of applications of nitrogen
fertilizer and manure on cultivated fields.
implement integrated agro-forestry systems that
combine crops, grazing lands and trees in ecologically
sustainable ways e.g region 7 which has great
agriculture potential
Conservation agriculture to improve soil organic
matter management with permanent organic soil
cover, minimum mechanical soil disturbance and crop
rotation
Ensure water security for the poor and marginalized
sectors of the society e.g. people in informal
settlements
8.5.6
Disaster Management
Table 17: Disaster management
Key vulnerabilities and impacts
Temperature

Increased incidents of fires and heat waves
requiring emergency services to help
communities
Rainfall
Adaptation options




Increased incidents of droughts affecting
several sectors with require
emergency
services and relief aid
Extreme weather events

Increased incidents of floods, hailstorm,
strong winds and landslides which require
emergency services, volunteers and relief aid








Early warning system to improve disaster risk reduction
and management
Risk and vulnerability assessments at local level to
determine current and future climate change impacts
that would inform adaptation options
Raise awareness on the importance of early warning
information by providing communication materials to
raise awareness and mainstream disaster risk reduction
at the local level
Integrate local knowledge and practices on adaptation
and early warning with those of the scientific community
Disaster management to coordinate response
mechanisms by different sectors and ensure that
disaster risk reduction is seen as a priority for local
planning and development
monitor and evaluation of climate change
activities/projects so that they do not get pushed from
the agenda by more pressing developmental issues
Improve the role played by extension services in the
dissemination of warnings
Training of municipal staff and volunteers to improve
adaptive capacity to extreme weather events
Procurement of equipment for risk reduction and
management
Increase public-private partnership to develop and
implement adaptation projects
De-densification of informal settlements
Source for Tables : Mukheibir and Ziervogel, 2006; Schneider et.al, 2007; Musvoto and Murambadoro, 2009;
Visser and van Nierkerk, 2009; UNEP, 2011; DEA et.al, 2012; City of Tshwane, 2013c; DEA, 2013a; DEA 2013b;
DEA, 2013c
The tables above do not present the comprehensive list of impacts and vulnerabilities for the CoT
and more may be added in the future. Multi-sectoral collaboration is essential in research on climate
change impacts, and the development and implementation of adaptation policies, programmes and
projects. There is need for a coordinated and consistent process to ensure effective adaptation and
guard against maladaptation. Another key factor that helps with effective climate change adaptation
is for local governments and decision makers to assess the links between their local, national and
international objectives across all sector departments (Mant et. al, 2014).
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9 City of Tshwane Proposed Adaptation Action Plan
9.1 Introduction
Climate change continues to threaten the ability of all local governments to achieve their mandate
as disasters cause damage to both public and private infrastructure, sources of livelihoods and also
increases the municipal budget on disaster recovery. The CoT has taken the initiative to be proactive
through preparedness and planning to reduce risks and levels of impact given the extent of damage
from recent climate related weather events. An example is the November 2013 hailstorm that
affected 44 800 households in regions 1 and 6 resulting in institutional damages worth more than
R23 million (CoT, 2014). The content presented in this chapter was developed by the project team
based on desktop research and minimum input sector departments. The plan is therefore a living
document that should be revised and updated when new information becomes available and
stakeholders provide inputs so as to enhance the CoT adaptive capacity.
As mentioned previously some of the changes in climate are unavoidable, therefore there is need to
prepare and adapt to them to reduce the negative impacts. The adaptation plan represents the
CoT’s commitment to climate change adaptation. It is also based on the climate change projections
(Chapter 3) and identified vulnerabilities (Chapter 4) presented in this report and the following
conclusions may be drawn from those projections:
Temperature increases of between 4 and 6.5 °C are plausible towards the end of the century
 High fire danger is projected for the City of Tshwane under low mitigation scenarios.
 The number of heat wave days is projected to increase rapidly under climate change, with
about 120 days per year by the end of the century.
 Tshwane is projected to become generally drier as rainfall is projected to decrease by about
50 mm by the end of the Century.
 A general increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events (20 mm of rain
falling within 24 hours over).
 A decrease in the projected number of days with frost.
An assessment of current climate risk and future climate change projections has also been
conducted to identify risks in the CoT that should be prioritised for adaptation. These are used to
inform priority adaptation actions and are listed below;
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes
Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security
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Climate change vulnerability in CoT is a result of a combination of social, economic and ecological
factors such as the ageing infrastructure (e.g. region1), increasing population demand on
infrastructure which increases pressure on the systems such as the storm water drainage system.
Other factors include the geographical local of human settlements in areas that are susceptible to
floods especially highly populated informal settlements (e.g. Regions 1, 2, 3 and 6). The impact on
some sectors is more severe and the sensitivity of each sector to particular climate variable varies.
For example ageing infrastructure found in previously disadvantaged communities who are located
on flood plains and have little resources available to cope and recover from disasters makes them
more vulnerable to intense rainstorms and hailstorms. Responding to these risk factors would
require partnerships between sectors such as the human settlements, roads and storm water
infrastructure planning, social development, disaster management and emergency services. Effective
and efficient adaptation should have input from different stakeholders at various levels of
government, private sector, civil society, researchers and operational implementers.
This plan encompasses the following sections,6.1 Introduction
6.2. Linking the adaptation plan to key adaptation goals that have been identified in the
Green Economy Transition Framework
6.3 Adaptation actions
6.4. Milestones and timelines
6.5. Conclusion
The following section assesses how adaptation focus areas identified in the CoT Framework for a
Green Economy align with the risk factors and adaptation action areas in this study. This process was
done to see synergies between the green economy framework and the adaptation plan which both
strive to contribute towards the CoT long term goal in the Tshwane Vision 2055 strategy. Climate
change adaptation is an intervention that contributes to ensuring a resilient and resource efficient
city.
9.2 Linking the plan to key adaptation goals in the green economy
framework
Three key green economy themes were identified in the Framework for Green Economy Transition
to be critical for climate change adaptation and building resilience of the City. They were developed
in the absence of a proper baseline that would allow for effective monitoring and evaluation. These
are:
 Maintenance and provision of ecosystem goods and services (links to vulnerability section
under biodiversity, water, air, land use and land cover sections in Chapter 4).
 Sustainable communities: health and social development (links to human health, human
settlements sections found in chapter 4).
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
Sustainable agriculture and food security (links to land use and land cover, water
resources, human health, agriculture and livelihoods sections discussed in chapter 4).
These themes are cross cutting and have been linked here to the key risk areas identified above for
adaptation and the vulnerability of sectors as identified above. However other adaptation focus
areas that the Cot could focus on emerged from the risk and vulnerability assessment these are
improved water security and efficient energy supply. Figure 30 provides an overview of the eight
priority risk factors that could inhibit the CoT from achieving its strategic objectives as highlighted in
the IDP 2014/15 and the long term vision in Tshwane Vision 2055. The two additional adaptation
focus areas are critical to addressing water insecurity and increased energy demand which may have
been put under mitigation but they also need to be part of adaptation.
Linking green economy adaptation goals and priority risks in CoT
Maintanence
& provision of
ecosystem
goods &
services
Sustainable
communities:
health &
social
development
Sustainable
agriculture
& food
security
Improve
d water
security
Efficient
energy
supply
Loss of
ecosystem
goods and
services
Increase in
diseases
affecting
human
health
Water
insecurity
Flooding
&damage to
human
settlements &
private
property
Damage to
infrastructure
Decreased
productivity of agro
ecosystems affecting
food security
Loss of
ecosystem
goods &
services
Water
insecurity
Increase in
energy
demand
Figure 30. Link between adaptation focus areas and priority risks.
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Increase
in
sinkholes
9.3 Adaptation Actions for priority risks
As mentioned earlier adaptation actions presented here seek to address the priority risks that
increase the CoT vulnerability to climate change and climate variability.
9.3.1
Risk factor 1: Loss of ecosystem goods and services
This risk factor area links with the UNFCCC Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010) which supports
ecosystem based adaptation by ensuring that vulnerable ecosystems are integrated into adaptation
through appropriate social, economic and environmental policies and activities (Mante et.al., 2014).
Research indicates that the decline in ecosystem goods and services is likely to be worsened by
climate change (DEA, 2013a). Ecosystem goods and services that can be enjoyed in urban systems
include increased resilience to extreme weather events such as floods by having parks and
conservation areas. Green areas can also help promote pollination and reduce air pollution by
filtration of the air as well as through carbon sequestration. Healthy ecosystems can also provide
filtration and purification of water which would lower the cost of doing this artificially (ICLEI,n.d;
UNEP, 2010). The following have been identified as the key ecosystem based adaptation actions to
address loss of ecosystem goods and services and this includes the current adaptation actions.
Key actions
The following are current actions that the city should continue with as they help curb the loss of
ecosystem goods and services.







Conservation and rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems
Listing of indigenous trees in each region which are planted in parks, traffic islands and road
reserves. The project also included the establishment of a nursery to grow the indigenous
trees to be used in the city when needed.
Clearing and control of alien invasive plants (focus on catchments, rivers and wetlands)
Establishing and maintaining protected areas or conservation areas
Water scarcity project
Continual updating of biodiversity assessments to monitor and review the status of sensitive
areas such as wetlands and bio-reserves, and inform their rehabilitation where needed
Maintaining or restoring buffers of natural vegetation in riparian areas
Build capacity of key role players and improve management ecosystems



Nature related environmental education, information, awareness and capacity building
(which include internships with students from Tshwane University of Technology and the
“Groen sebenza” program)
Integrating ecological infrastructure into land-use planning and decision-making
Improving rangeland management practise
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Other actions



9.3.2
Ensure that ecological areas within the CoT boundary are placed under the jurisdiction of
the city
Incorporate ground water resources in the water management plans in the CoT
Engage with other stakeholders such as Working for Wetlands programme on community
raising awareness on wetlands.
Risk factor2: Increased energy demand
Temperatures in the CoT are projected to increase and rainfall is likely to decrease. It is therefore
anticipated that there will be an increasing demand for energy for domestic and industrial cooling.
Addressing this risk factor has to be done to ensure that residents are industry are more energy
efficient.
Actions for the energy demand side





Retrofitting buildings and other public infrastructure
Insulating low cost homes so that they are cooler in summer and warmer in winter
Promoting energy efficient appliances (energy saving bulbs, washing machines etc)
Raising awareness on energy conservation practices
Provide incentives for industry to save energy and use renewable sources of energy
Actions for supply side




9.3.3
Invest in renewable energy sources (e.g. increased opportunity for solar energy as
projections highlight increasing temperatures over Tshwane)
Converting waste to energy (e.g. biogas)
Smart meters to encourage users to manage electricity well
Put more stringent measures in place to avoid and punish those found guilty of connecting
to electricity illegally
Risk factor 3: Increase in diseases affecting human and animal health
This risk factor can derail the city from achieving the adaptation goal on sustainable communities
through health and social development. Diseases, pests, pathogens, increased temperature and
increased air pollutants are some of the factors that aggravate diseases affecting both human and
animals. Ensuring sustainable communities contributes to international goals such as the Millennium
Development Goals aimed at eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, improving maternal health,
reducing child mortality, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases. Other diseases such as
malaria, bilharzia and cholera are likely to be exacerbated by extreme rainfall events resulting in
flooding and high temperatures (CoJ, 2009). These will be more prevalent in informal settlements
84
where there inadequate drinking water, sewer and limited refuse collection. The following actions
were identified as key actions for adaptation to reduce diseases affecting human and animals.
Key actions for vector borne diseases


Continue with efforts to enhance the efficiency of service delivery and ensure universal
access to public services (water, sanitation, electricity, health care and housing) especially
for communities in flood lines and previously disadvantaged areas
Maintenance and upgrading of existing storm water infrastructure
Key actions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases


Reduce greenhouse gases through actions such as:
o Improving access to cleaner energy for cooking and heating.
o Continued rollout of solar water geysers especially in low cost houses
o Expanding the current Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system which provides public with
affordable, comfortable, safe and reliable public transport while cutting down the
number of private car users (greenhouse gases). The first phase of this project is on
Nana Sita Street, past University Road servicing Arcadia and Hatfield.
Community outreach programme to educate people on the health risks of increasing
temperature and heat waves
Other actions



9.3.4
Monitoring of vector diseases in the city
Continue with city wide clean up campaigns
Upgrade and maintain health facilities to ensure that they can provide emergency services
when most needed.
Risk factor 4: Damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges)
Tshwane Vision 2055 strategy acknowledges that setting up, operation and maintenance of
infrastructure is expensive. However provision of quality infrastructure promotes sustainable
communities and such as there is need to invest in and maintain critical infrastructure that reduces
risks. Sections of the city have inadequate and ageing infrastructure that is vulnerable to intense
rain resulting in flooding. The following adaptation actions have been identified to reduce the risk of
damage to infrastructure.
Key adaptation actions

Use information from vulnerability assessments to identify vulnerable areas, make use of
resilient designs and building material as well as the relocation of existing developments in
high risk areas
85

Continue with the urban core project which are high-density activity nodes that present
economic, social and residential potential in integrated environments, linked to public
transport facilities e.g. Mabopane (Infrastructurene.ws, 2014). This cuts down the spending
on provision and maintenance of infrastructure as users and systems are in a manageable
space

Promote projects that provide sustainable road infrastructure to allow residents of Tshwane
to experience tangible socio-economic and spatial transformation. Road and storm water
infrastructure built in Soshanguve and Mabopane (Infrastructurene.ws, 2014)
Increase operational budget for maintenance of infrastructure such as storm water drainage
systems
Upgrade and maintain water and sewer infrastructure to reduce backlog and meet new
demand
Carry on with plans to establish a sample green neighbourhood in Zitobeni



Other actions

9.3.5
Retaining of storm water through rain water tanks, penetrable pavements and green roofs
Risk factor 5: Water insecurity
CoT is expected to become drier with projected decrease in rainfall of about 30mm by the 2040’s
and 50 mm by the end of the century. Temperature increases of about 2°C are projected to have
occurred by the 2040’s this likely to increase to a range between 4 and 6.5 °C by the end of the
century. Changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events such as droughts have an
impact on water quality and quantity. CoT gets its water from catchments shared with other local
government hence it important that partnerships are built with other water users to ensure
sustainability of the resource. The following have been put forward as adaptation actions to curb
water insecurity in the CoT.
Actions on the demand side




Encourage rainwater harvesting for household, industrial and agricultural use (e.g. garden
irrigation)
Promote projects that make use of waste water or water from sewage treatment
Encourage residents to report water leakages immediately
Use of water efficient fittings on taps, showers and toilets
Actions on the supply side


Early warning system to inform municipalities of impending floods and droughts e.g.
increasing storage capacity in drier periods.
Improve coordination with other sector departments particularly when developing sector
specific adaptation responses
86




Water restrictions for some activities such as landscape and garden irrigation
Upgrade of infrastructure to monitor water and curb losses due to leakages
Water pressure management- reduce water lost through leakages by decreasing the amount
of water in pipes during off peak times
Increase adaptive capacity of institutions responsible for water management and
governance so they respond quickly to reported incidents
Other actions




9.3.6
Community awareness raising campaigns on climate change, water conservation and
adaptation manual
Climate change awareness campaigns for all stakeholders in the trans boundary basin
Wetland management
Incentivise the use of drip irrigation systems, which use 30-60% less water than conventional
sprinkler systems (CoJ, 2009).
Risk factor 6: Flooding and damage to human settlements and private property
due to extreme weather events (floods and hailstorm)
Urbanisation and geographical location of human settlements in the CoT is sprawled. Historical
factors such as apartheid have influenced the settlement patterns in the city. A key feature is the
uneven quality of development between townships and more affluent areas of the city. There are
also limited social and economic opportunities in the townships. Studies show that some of the
human settlements in townships are vulnerable to flooding because there are located on floodplains
and also because they have ageing and poorly maintained or inadequate storm water drainage
system. A significant number of homes in townships had asbestos roofs and these are vulnerable to
extreme weather events such as hailstorms and intense rainfall. The following are suggested actions
that should be taken to reduce the risk of flooding and damage to human settlements and private
property




Engage with hydrological specialists to conduct future flood line assessment for all regions as
information for some regions is currently missing (Regions 5and 7). This information may be
available but with the amalgamation of the former district municipalities this information
has not been consolidated
Provision of durable low cost houses to residents as is being currently done in areas such as
Hammanskraal Proper, Hammanskraal West Proper, Hammanskraal West Ext 1, Stinkwater
RDP, Stinkwater Ext 1 to 3
Nissan South Africa Blue Citizenship global housing initiative which started in 2013 aims at
provide200 beneficiaries with decent housing and restore dignity through property
ownership in Ga-Rankuwa Zone 10.
Invest, design and construct sustainable infrastructure
87


Upgrade and/relocation informal settlements and promote safe construction of nonengineered building
Enforce compliance with building regulations
Other actions
Raising community awareness and encourage people to avoid settling on flood plains and use SAB
approved building materials and change asbestos roofs.
9.3.7
Risk factor 7: Increase in sinkholes
As discussed in chapter 4 large sections of region 4, parts of region 3 and 6 have dolomite land are
susceptible to sinkholes and subsidence formation primarily through ground water level drawdown
and ingress of water (See map 4.11). Development has already occurred in these areas and as such
the CoT will in most instances have to respond to the sinkhole related emergencies.
Key actions


Development planning, development types and densities to be informed with the hazard
zonation of the dolomite areas
Create and maintain a dolomite risk management database
Target group awareness campaigns
Build capacity of emergency services and inter-departmental task teams or steering
committees to respond when needed
Put measures in place to meet current and evolving statutory requirements on dolomites.
9.3.8
Risk factor 8: Decreased productivity of agro ecosystems affecting food security



The role of agriculture in Tshwane need to be explored further as potential for this economic activity
is often undervalued (CoT, 2013c). Currently there are some agricultural activities are undertaken in
different parts of Tshwane including Regions 5, 6, 7 and northern parts of Region 2. Agriculture
production and food security are threatened by the projected decrease in rainfall which would affect
water available for crops and livestock. Increased temperature reduces soil moisture, affects soil
fertility while increased incidence of extreme weather events such as heat waves affects the
productivity of crops such as maize and livestock e.g. dairy cattle (Musvoto and Murambadoro,
2009). Addressing this risk factor would also enhance the sustainable agriculture theme in the
Green economy framework which seeks to increase the production and nutritional quality of food,
ensure food security, sustainable livelihoods and resilient ecosystems (CoT, 2013c).
Key actions

Sustainable and conservation agriculture projects that promote minimum tillage and organic
farming
88



Rain water harvesting
Enhancing skills and knowledge in organic production and agro-ecology practices, for
example, through the "Moringa Tree" Project and the National Organic Produce Initiative 55
Diversifying crops to less sensitive varieties
Other activities



9.3.9
Develop the infrastructure required for successful local food markets, as well as green
packing houses and processing facilities that add value to local produce
Promote community food production and establish food gardens at public institutions such
as clinics, hospitals, schools and prisons
Increase awareness of the relationship between ecosystem services, food security and
nutrition within Tshwane
Strategic adaptation actions
It is essential that other strategic actions be put in place by the CoT to ensure its transition to a
resilient city. The Hailstorm report (CoT, 2014) recommends that the city adopts a ten point checklist
based on the five priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Specific actions that
could be undertaken under the checklist are discussed in that report. Some of the key adaptation
strategic issues emanating from list focus on planning, finance, stakeholder engagement and
information and technology management and are highlighted below.
Planning
Urban development planning and decision making should be informed by the information on
hazards, vulnerability and recommendations from risk assessments. It should also include enforcing
building regulations, land use planning principles and identification and upgrading of unsafe informal
settlements.
Finance
Climate adaptation is not easy and it is not cheap. Adaptation strategies can be integrated into
development projects as budgeted by the municipality however these can be costly. Therefore the
CoT needs to explore other funding mechanisms available to fund adaptation projects.
Stakeholder engagement
Adaptation also requires engagement with both internal stakeholders and external stakeholders.
The CoT Sustainability Office could play a leading role in cross sectoral coordination and provide
strategic direction for the City to implement strategic goals and integrated responses. It also needs
to communicate the projected climate change information to all stakeholders including the public.
Internal stakeholders include those structures within the CoT whose input may help update this
89
adaptation plan as they also identify vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for their respective
sectors. This also includes education programmes and training on disaster risk management for
communities.
Engaging with external stakeholders includes those structures outside the CoT whom the city could
build strategic linkages to help with effective and cohesive policies for their programmes and
projects. Such stakeholders include neighbouring municipalities whose actions may have an impact
on the CoT. These include Waterberg District Municipality, City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni,
Gauteng provincial government and water catchment management authorities.
Information and technology management
This strategic action could be achieved through inventories that maintain up to date data on the CoT
hazards, risk assessments and land use classification which would be the foundation for urban
development and decisions Other technical systems that are required included an early warning
system generates that disseminates timely and effective information so that people exposed to risk
can take action, to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response (UNISDR, 2009). The
Disaster Management Centre is playing a key role in disseminating alerts and warnings as issued by
the relevant authorities such as the South African Weather Services.
9.4 Milestones and Timelines for implementation of specific actions
The City of Tshwane Vision 2055 highlights milestones and timelines in the transition to a resilient
and resource efficient city. These have been adopted here from the vision, to ensure that the
adaptation actions identified in this report contribute towards achieving the key outcomes as set in
the Vision 2055 strategy document. Figure 31 below shows the key milestones and timelines to be
achieved in the next 40 years.
Figure 31. Key milestones and timelines (Source: CoT, 2013a).
The period in which these milestones are to be achieved overlaps with the period when significant
changes in rainfall, temperature and extreme weather events are likely to occur. Projections suggest
that from the 2040’s increases in temperature of about 2°C are plausible over Tshwane. In that same
period rainfall is projected to decrease by 30mm while the number of days with heat waves will
probably increase by 60days. It is therefore essential that the CoT steps up adaptation options to
ensure that key risk factors identified above do not constrain the city from achieving its long term
90
goal and the milestones per decade. It is important to note that these timelines are also coinciding
with the LTAS near future period (2015-2035) and mid future period (2040-2060) and the National
Development Plan timelines and milestones.
9.5 Adaptive Capacity and existing barriers in Tshwane
Second-generation vulnerability assessment requires that an evaluation of the capacity of the key
roles players to implement these adaptation options be done (Füssel and Klein, 2006). Table 18
highlights results from the sector department stakeholder engagement process which sought to
analyse the capacity of the CoT to adapt to climate change as well as some of the barriers that may
hinder/ threaten this process
Table 18: Institutional adaptive capacity and barriers for the CoT.
Capacity to adapt
Barriers that may hinder adaptation






Existing and functional Disaster Management
Department
Existing legislative capacity in the form of Acts,
Ordinances, Regulations, and bylaws that can be used
to integrate climate change across sectors e.g.
Framework for green economy transition
Community NGO’s and CBO’s established to
strengthen the course for adaptations and programs
Great strides made in disaster preparedness education
and awareness in communities
Pre-planning through establishment of Sustainability
desk in the office of Executive Mayor









91
Limited budget allocated for maintenance of
infrastructure and other adaptation projects/initiatives
Uncertainty on the actual changes in climate and how
it affects certain sectors
Increased expenditure on more pressing and
immediate problems
Costs of initiating adaptation projects
Willingness to implement and effective prosecution in
cases of non-compliance
Attitude of local government officials who are
unreceptive to new information and new ways of
doing things
Lack of practical guide on how to integrate climate
change into respective sectors
Lack of skilled personnel
At times there is insufficient allocation of Disaster
funding during the incidences
Limitations around renewable energy which cannot
feed back into the grid
9.6 Conclusion
There are several drivers of change that the CoT needs to respond to as highlighted the CoT Vision
2055. These include both climatic and non-climatic factors such as changes in temperature, rainfall
and extreme weather events; population dynamics and migration; health, poverty and increasing
inequalities; resource security; as well as urban form, sprawl, housing, transportation and mobility
(CoT, 2013a). As mentioned earlier adaptation options listed in the document are not exhaustive as
such other options should be incorporated into the plan as new information emerges. Climate
change initiatives in general need to be reviewed regularly so that response actions are update. Key
vulnerable sectors in the CoT where adaptation actions should focus on are biodiversity, human
health, infrastructure, water, human settlements and socio- economic. Eight risk factors in the CoT
have been prioritised for action and these include loss of ecosystem goods and services; increased
energy demand; and damage to infrastructure (storm water systems, roads, bridges).
Local government therefore need to anticipate challenges as there is uncertainty with regards to
magnitude, timing and distribution of climate change impacts. They should also note as pointed
earlier that climate change adaptation is not easy and it’s not cheap. Decision makers therefore
need to be flexible enough to accommodate these changes and consider timely response as well as
appropriate monitoring and evaluation systems.
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10 Monitoring, reporting, verification and evaluation (MRVE)
10.1 Introduction
Monitoring Reporting, Verification and Evaluation in climate change adaptation can be done firstly
to track the progress of the implementation of the adaptation plan and secondly measuring the
success of the adaptation plan. It is difficult to measure the latter, which is related to the MRVE of
adaptation impacts, due to a number of challenges. For example, the impact of adaptation may only
be evident decades from the time of implementation (temporal limitations). This is also dependent
upon uncertain and unknown future and social economic conditions. In addition, there is no agreed
metric to determine the effectiveness of adaptation projects in reducing potential impacts since
vulnerability assessments are based on value-judgements, unlike mitigation projects which have
technical indicators (e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations). It is therefore difficult to measure
when a significant change has occurred as a result of implementing an adaptation project, making it
difficult to define what adaptation looks like in reality (DEA, 2014).
This section of the report presents the MRVE system proposed as an internal management tool to
provide information on the gap between the expectation of the project and the results achieved
from the actions contained in the adaptation plan. The MRVE of the implementation of the
adaptation plan will help the CoT achieve its long term goal (impact) of being a resilient city as this
provides learning through feedback into the planning and decision making process.
South Africa has in recent years, begun the process of developing the country’s Climate Change
Response Monitoring and Evaluation system in order to ensure the effective implementation of
climate change responses. At an urban level, there is currently no MRVE system in place for
adaptation projects, and to date local climate change adaptation strategies have not included MRVE
systems.
As a signatory of the Durban Adaptation Charter, the CoT has a responsibility to ensure that local
climate action in their jurisdiction will assist communities in the city to respond to and cope with
climate change risks. The CoT further has a responsibility to ensure that the objectives of these
strategies are implemented, monitored, evaluated and mainstreamed into statutory government
planning processes. As such Action 8 of the Charter requires all signatories to develop an acceptable,
robust, transparent, measurable, reportable and verifiable register that should reflect the local
context in which adaptation takes place (DAC, 2011).
10.2 MRVE on implementing Adaptation Plan
Several climate change actions or projects are currently underway in the CoT. The adaptation plan highlights some of
highlights some of these projects and suggests other actions that the CoT could undertake in response to 8 priority risk
response to 8 priority risk factors identified in the risk prioritisation section. For each of these projects, the City would
93
projects, the City would need to undertake an assessment of the extent to which the inputs (e.g. financial and human
financial and human resources), activities (e.g. workshops and training) and outputs (trained staff and implemented
and implemented projects) are progressing toward achieving the desired results. The proposed steps of the MRVE of
of the MRVE of implementation of the adaptation projects within CoT adaptation plan are shown below in
below in
Figure 32.
Specifically, the scope of the MRVE system has been defined in this study as a means to perform
annual reviews in order to track the implementation of measures within the Adaptation Plan (See
section on Adaptation Plan) and it will provide a basis for the City to report its adaptation efforts to
the Carbonn Cities Climate Registry. Responsibility for the MRVE system needs to reside within the
department implementing the adaptation plan that will have the responsibility of co-ordinating
stakeholder involvement in the MRVE. This department will further be responsible for on-going data
collection so as to monitor and evaluate progress in the achievement of key milestones and outputs
of the adaptation measures/actions implemented. The results obtained need to be independently
verified before it is reported to stakeholders and the Carbonn registry.
Figure 32. Procedure for the MRVE for the implementation of the CoT Adaptation plan (adapted from DWAF, 2005).
94
Whilst
Figure 32 displays this process in a step-wise process, it is in reality likely to require many iterations
between steps as stakeholder inputs are received and integrated to support delivery of the projects
objectives. Remedial actions which are implemented at various milestones in the project will also
contribute towards informing best-practice in subsequent, related adaptation projects.
Table 19 shows some of the criteria and type of assessment that could be used in monitoring and
evaluating the implementation of an adaptation plan. This information can be used to evaluate the
progress made by adaptation projects in their life cycle and at specific milestones. The evaluation
according to Grafakos and Kaczmarski (2013) consists of the following five criteria:
 Relevance (relevance to climate change adaptation/resilience objectives)
 Implementation (compliance related to delivery of outcomes within planned timeframes)
 Effectiveness (achievement of projects objectives/targets met within planned timeframe)
 Efficiency (costs associated with project)
 Equity (beneficiaries associated with project)
The assessment caters for different levels of data intensity and provides options for qualitative
assessments (low data intensity) and quantitative assessments (high data intensity). A score from 0
to 1 is allocated to each evaluation criterion (Table 19) and provides a means to identify which
aspects of the project are under-performing and require remedial action. A maximum total score of
five points can be allocated to each project and can provide an overall performance rating of the
project relative to other adaptation projects within the CoT’s adaptation plan.
An example of how to allocate a score to an evaluation criterion of implementation can be
illustrated using a project activity of ‘clearing of alien invasive species’ with the project rationale of
maintaining and restoring buffer of natural vegetation in riparian areas. If the expected project
output was to clear 200 ha of land by 2016, the associated indicator is ‘the area of land cleared of
alien invasive species (ha)’. If 180 ha of land was cleared (of the target of 200 ha) within the planned
timeframe, then the level of implementation was high and a score of 0.9 could be allocated since
90% of the target was met (project outputs delivered by more than 75% (0.75-1 point) (Grafakos and
Kaczmarski, 2013).
95
Table 19: Proposed MRVE guideline for the CoT(Adapted from: Grafakos and Kaczmarski, 2013).
96
Critera
Question
Assessment
Type of Assessement
Highest
Possible
Score
Not relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are not related to
climate change adaptation (0 point)
Relevance
To what extent was the
adaptation measure objectives
relevant to climate change
adaptation?
Indirectly relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are
indirectly related to climate change adaptation (0.5 points)
Qualitative
1
Directly relevant: the adaptation measure objectives are directly
related to climate change adaptation (1 point)
Not delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have not been
delivered (0 point)
Partly delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have been
partly delivered (0.5 point)
Delivered: the adaptation measure's outputs have been delivered
(1 point)
To what extent was the intended
Implementati adaptation measure outcomes
Low level of implementation: the adaptation measure's outputs
on
delivered within the planned
have been delivered by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
time frame?
Moderate level of implementation: the adaptation measure's
outputs have been delivered by more than 25% and up to 75%
(0.25 – 0.75 point)
Option 1: Qualitative
assessment for measures
with minor data
requirements
1
Option 2: Quantitative
assessment for measures
with signficant data
requirements
High level of implementation: the adaptation measure's outputs
have been delivered by more than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Not achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have not been
achieved (0 point)
Partly achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have been
partly achieved (0.5 point)
Achieved: the adaptation measure's objectives have been achieved
(1 point)
Option 1: Qualitative
assessment for measures
with minor data
requirements
Low effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives achieved
by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
To what extent were the
Moderate effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives
adaptation measure's objectives achieved by more than 25% and up to 75% (0.25 – 0.75 point)
Effectiveness
achieved within the planned time
frame?
High effectiveness: the adaptation measure's objectives achieved
by more than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Option 2: Quantitative
assessment for measures
with signficant data
requirements
1
Low effectiveness: the adaptation measure has reduced value at
risk by up to 25% (0 – 0.25 point)
Option 3: Quantitative
assessment and
Moderate effectiveness: the adaptation measure has reduced value
monetization for
at risk by more than 25% and up to 75% (0.25 – 0.75 point)
measures with significant
data requirements
High effectiveness: the project has reduced value at risk by more
than 75% (0.75 - 1 point)
Negative budget variances: the actual adaptation measure cost is
higher than the budgeted cost (0 point)
Efficiency
To what extent was the climate
change adaptation measure
intervention efficient?
Positive budget variances: the actual adaptation measure cost is
equal to or lower than the baseline budgeted cost (1 point)
Option 1 : Comparison
against internal budget
for adaptation measures
with minor data
requirements
Option 2: Comparison
Negative comparison: the actual adaptation measure cost is higher
against "typical" budgets
than the cost of adaptation measure (0 point
of similar adaptation
measures for identified
Positive comparison: the actual adaptation measure cost is equal to
measures with moderate
or lower than the cost of similar adaptation measures (1 point)
data requirements
1
Low level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure
beneficiaries is up to 25% of the total affected population (0 – 0.25
point)
Equity
To what extent did the project
benefit the target local
population?
Medium level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure
beneficiaries is more than 25% and up to 75% of the total affected Quantitative assessment
population ( 0.25 – 0.75 point)
1
High level of equity: the proportion of adaptation measure
beneficiaries is more than 75% of the total affected population
(0.75 – 1 point)
Total
5
97
Score
All projects within the adaptation plan can be assessed using the same criteria and performance
indicators as presented above in the framework, so as to ensure transparency and uniformity in the
assessments. Within each project, the types of information that are used will be project specific for
each of the criterion.
Table 20 below provides a set of adaptation actions discussed in the previous chapter of this
document for the risk factors identified and selected examples of indicators to illustrate which of the
five evaluation criteria these indicators could potentially inform in the MRVE guidelines provided in
Table 19. It is important to note, however, that the appropriate selection of indicators to use in the
assessment of adaptation projects should consider the project scale, data availability and local
context.
Table 20: Selected examples of indicators to inform the scoring of actions in the proposed framework at relevant
milestones throughout the duration of the project.
Risk Factor
Increased energy demand
Damage to infrastructure
(storm water systems, roads,
bridges)
Flooding and damage to
human settlements and
Evaluation criterion
assessed in MRVE
framework
Measures
Indicator
Insulating low cost homes so
that they are cooler in
summer and warmer in
winter
Is the insulation of homes
directly/indirectly related to adaptation
to heat risk in the CoT?
Relevance
Number of homes retrofitted with
insulating materials
Implementation
Energy consumption per household
Effectiveness
Cost of insulating homes relative to the
budget allocated for this programme
Efficiency
The number and proportion of people
that benefitted from having better
insulated homes
Equity
Is the identification of vulnerable
infrastructure directly/indirectly related
to adaptation in the CoT?
Relevance
Construction of flood protection
schemes for infrastructure in
vulnerable areas
Implementation
Reduction in economic losses due to
damage of infrastructure as result of
floods
Percentage of allocated funds spent on
upgrading or/protecting critical
infrastructure relative to the budget
allocated
The number and proportion of people
identified in vulnerable areas
Effectiveness
Does durable low-cost housing support
adaptation in the CoT?
Relevance
Use information from
vulnerability assessments to
identify vulnerable areas
Provision of durable low cost
houses to residents
98
Efficiency
Equity
Risk Factor
private property
Increase in sinkholes
Water insecurity
Measures
(currently in progress within
the CoT)
Create a dolomite risk
management database
Build early warning system to
inform municipality of
impending floods and
droughts e.g. increasing
storage capacity in drier
periods
Indicator
Evaluation criterion
assessed in MRVE
framework
Progress with the acquisition and
development of durable low cost
houses
Implementation
The number of durable low-cost houses
provided
Effectiveness
The cost of the provision of the houses
relative to the proposed budget
Efficiency
The number and proportion of the
population that have been provided
with these homes
Equity
Is the establishment of a database
directly or indirectly related to the
adaption response to increased
sinkholes?
Relevance
Percentage completion of the dolomite
risk management database
Implementation
Area (ha) of CoT that has been assessed
and managed for the sinkholes risk due
to dolomite bedrock
Effectiveness
The actual costs to create and establish
the database relative to the budget
available
Efficiency
The population of CoT that are within
areas that are under management of
the risk database
Equity
Is the building of an early warning
system indirectly or directly related to
the threat of water-related natural
disasters in the CoT?
Relevance
Percentage of the development of the
early warning system completed
Implementation
Number of warnings issued by the early
warning system of impending water
related natural disasters in the CoT
Effectiveness
The actual cost to build the system
relative to the budget available
Efficiency
99
Risk Factor
Loss of ecosystem goods and
services
Decreased productivity of
agro-ecosystems
affecting
food security
Increases in diseases
affecting human and animal
health
Measures
Increasing nature-related
environmental education,
information, awareness and
capacity building (which
include internships with
students from Tshwane
University of Technology and
the “Groen sebenza”
program)
Implementation of
sustainable and conservation
agriculture projects that
promote minimum tillage
and organic farming
Upgrade health facilities to
ensure that they can provide
emergency services when
most needed
Indicator
Evaluation criterion
assessed in MRVE
framework
The proportion of the population in the
CoT that received early warnings of
impending water related natural
disasters in CoT
Equity
Is the course content of relevance to
supporting climate change adaptation?
Relevance
Number of information dissemination
outlets utilised, by type of outlet (e.g.
radio, newspaper, website)
Implementation
Training quality as perceived by
participants of program
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a
percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
Number of students registered in
program
Equity
Is the project relevant to improve food
security in agro-ecosystems?
Relevance
Number of workshops held to train
community members on sustainable
agriculture techniques
Implementation
Number of projects implemented
within the planned timeframe
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a
percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
Percentage of men and women
applying agricultural practices learned
in programme-sponsored workshops
Equity
Is the project relevant to reducing
adverse health risk to animals and
humans as a climate change response
strategy?
Relevance
The number of health facilities
upgraded within each type of health
facility (hospital, ambulance services,
and clinics)
Implementation
The number patients treated in an
emergency through the use of these
upgraded facilities
Effectiveness
Cost of running the programme as a
percentage of projected costs
Efficiency
The proportion of the population in the
CoT with access to health facilities
which are equipped to cope with
emergencies
Equity
100
10.3 Conclusion
Monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation has recently gained momentum in some
development projects which include work by the Deutsche Gesellschaftfür Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). MRVE for the CoT is therefore a useful internal management tool that can be
used to provide information on the gap between expectation and result (increased resilience in CoT)
which should be an improvement from what was the status quo (climate change vulnerable CoT).
There is need to build capacity within the city so that officials can collect, verify, collate and write
reports that feedback into the adaptation plan. Specifics on how the city can report on the progress
being made can be decided with further stakeholder engagement. This can include quarterly
reporting on departmental performance on adaptation projects and annual reporting on capacity
building initiatives to improve performance of local government officials. MRVE can also contribute
towards international assessments and compilation of reports on climate change responses and
inform South Africa’s participation in climate change negotiations under the UNFCCC. MRVE needs
to be constantly updated with feedback from stakeholders as the city gets to understand how
adaptation actions can become more effective.
101
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