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Figure 1.01. World GDP
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
70
75
80
85
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
Figure 1.02. Development of GDP in different regions
and countries
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
Sweden
-10
-10
Euro area
-12
-12
USA
-14
-14
-16
-16
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.03. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
4
4
Sweden
TCW-weighted
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note: In Sweden's case this refers to CPIF inflation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
11
12
13
Sources: National soruces and the Riksbank
Figure 1.04. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
-4
-6
-4
-6
-8
-8
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.05. CPIF with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.06. Prog.1 Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.07. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.08. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden
according to money market participants
Per cent
5
5
Repo rate
Forward rate 26 August 2010
Forward rate 18 October 2010
4
Repo rate, forecast
Survey, Prospera average, 13 October 2010
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Figure 1.09. Monetary policy expectations in the euro
area and the USA
Per cent
6
6
FED funds
FED funds 18 October 2010
FED funds 26 August 2010
ECB refi rate
ECB refi rate 18 October
ECB refi rate 26 August 2010
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent with the official
policy rate.
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the USA
Per cent
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
52
62
72
82
92
02
12
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 1.11. Unit labour costs and core inflation in the
USA
Annual percentage change
14
14
Unit labour costs
12
12
Core inflation
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Note. Core inflation measured as the CPI excluding energy and food.
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figure 1.12. General government financial balance
Per cent of GDP
25
25
2007
20
20
2008
15
15
2009
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
K
G
Ic
el
a
N
or
w
Sp
er
m
U
ni
te
d
G
do
m
in
g
ar
ea
ro
Eu
Sw
re
ec
e
-5
nd
-5
ay
0
ai
n
0
Fr
an
ce
5
an
y
5
U
SA
10
ed
en
10
Sources: IMF and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.13. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the
euro area and USA
GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
110
110
USA
108
108
Euro area
106
106
Sweden
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank
Figure 1.14. HICP in the euro area
Annual percentage change
5
5
Total
Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Excluding energy and unprocessed food
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Eurostat
Figure 1.15. GDP
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
October
September
-8
-8
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.16. GDP by expenditure
Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-40
Private consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Export
Public consumption
Import
-30
-40
-50
-50
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.17. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 18.11.92 = 100
160
160
September
155
155
October
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.18. Policy rates
Per cent, quarterly changes
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Sweden
TCW-weighted
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and the world market for
Swedish exports
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Swedish exports
Swedish export market
-20
-20
80
85
90
Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.20. Investment ratio
Per cent of GDP, current prices
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
80
82 84
86 88
90
92 94
96 98
00
Note. Four-quarter moving average. Points represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
02 04
06 08
10 12
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and
saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income
8
7
16
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.22. Confidence indicators for households
Net figures
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
Macro index (Sweden's economy)
Micro index (own finances)
-60
Households confidence indicator
-80
-80
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 1.23. Number of hours worked
Millions, seasonally-adjusted data
1900
1900
September
1880
1880
October
1860
1860
1840
1840
1820
1820
1800
1800
1780
1780
1760
1760
1740
1740
1720
1720
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.24. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5200
5200
Employed, 16-64 years
Employed, 15-74 years
5000
5000
Labour force, 16-64 years
Labour force, 15-74 years
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
Unemployment, 16-64 years
4
4
Unemployment, 15-74 years
October
2
2
September
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. Proportion of companies reporting a
shortage of labour
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
70
70
Manufacturing industry
Construction sector
60
60
Retail trade
Private sector industries
50
50
Business sector
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: National Insitute of Economic Research
Figure 1.27. GDP-gap and RU indicator
Percentage deviation from potential level
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
GDP (HP)
-4
-4
GDP (PF)
-6
-6
RU indicator
-8
-8
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from the trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from
the trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from potential level
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Hours gap (HP)
Hours gap
-6
-6
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The hours gap
refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the number of hours worked. Broken lines represent the
Riksbank's forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.29. Employment and labour force participation rates
Employment and labour force as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year,
seasonally-adjusted data
86
Employment rate, September
Employment rate, October
Labour force participation rate, September
Labour force participation rate, October
84
86
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.30. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
-2
-2
-3
-3
94
96
98
00
02
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
04
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.31. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
4
4
CPIF excluding energy
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.32. HICP in the euro area and in Sweden
Annual percentage change
5
5
Sweden
Euro area
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. HICP is the Harmonised Index for Consumer Prices and is used to compare inflation rates in Europe. It's composition is similar to the CPIF. Broken
lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.33. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5.0
5.0
September
4.5
4.5
October
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.34. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
3
3
September
October
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast
(CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.01. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
Main scenario
-8
-8
A "double dip" abroad
-10
-10
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.02. CPI abroad
TCW-weighted, annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Main scenario
3.5
3.5
A "double dip" abroad
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.03. Interest rate abroad
TCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Main scenario
A "double dip" abroad
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.04. CPIF
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
A "double dip" abroad
3.5
3.5
Main scenario
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.05. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
A "double dip" abroad
Main scenario
-15
-15
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.06. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from potential level
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
A "double dip" abroad
Main scenario
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.07. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
Main scenario
A "double dip" abroad
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Anm. Streckad linje avser Riksbankens prognos.
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Figure 2.08. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from potential level
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Faster domestic upswing
Main scenario
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.09. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Faster domestic upswing
Main scenario
-15
-15
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.10. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4.0
4.0
Faster domestic upswing
3.5
3.5
Main scenario
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.11. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
Main scenario
Faster domestic upswing
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.12. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5
5
Main scenario
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.13. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
-15
-15
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.14. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from potential level
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. Unemployment
Percent
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
5
5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.16. Production gap (GDP)
Percentage deviation from potential level
6
6
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
4
4
Main scenario
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.17. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4.0
4.0
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.18. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
Higher interest rate
Lower interest rate
Main scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.01. Government bond rates in various
countries
Percent
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
Sweden
Euro area (Germany)
USA
United Kingdom
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity
09
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.02. Difference between interbank rates and
expected monetary policy (Basis spread)
Basis points
400
350
400
350
Sweden
Euro area
300
250
300
USA
United Kingdom
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
Jan-07
0
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Note. The spread is calculated as the difference between the three-month interbank rate and the three-month overnight index swap.
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.03. Exchange rates
SEK per euro and dollar
12
12
SEK/EUR
SEK/USD
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.04. Stock market movements
Index, 3-1-2006 = 100
180
180
Sweden (OMXS)
160
160
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
USA (S&P 500)
140
140
Emerging markets (MSCI)
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.05. World trade volume
World Trade Monitor index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
250
250
World trade total
Emergning economies
Advanced economies
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 3.06. GDP in the BRIC countries
Annual percentage change
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
Brazil
Russia
-8
-8
India
China
-12
-12
04
05
Note. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: IMF and National Bureau of Statistics of China
Figure 3.07. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonallyadjusted data
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
USA
-8
-8
Euro area
-12
Japan
-12
-16
United
kingdom
-16
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Cabinet Office Japan, Eurostat och Office and National Statistics UK
Figure 3.08. Purchasing mangarer's index,
manufacturing sector
Index, over 50 indicates growth
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
USA
Euro area
Sweden
35
35
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank
Figure 3.09. Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force
11
11
Sweden
USA
10
10
Euro area
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.10. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
USA
-2
-2
Euro area
OECD
-3
00
01
-3
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.11. CPI excluding energy and food
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
Euro area
USA
3.5
3.5
OECD
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and OECD
Figure 3.12. GDP growth in the euro area’s largest
economies
Quarterly growth in per cent calculated as an annual rate
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
Euro area
Germany
-10
-10
Spain
France
Italy
-15
-15
2009 kv 1
2009 kv 2
2009 kv 3
2009 kv 4
2010 kv 1
2010 kv 2
Source: Eurostat
Figure 3.13. Government bond rates in various
countries
Per cent
14
14
Sweden
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Spain
Portugal
12
10
12
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
06
07
08
09
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.14. The Economic Tendency Indicator
Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
The Economic Tendency Indicator
Mean
75
75
+/- one standard deviation
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.15. Industrial production and the production of
services
Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
120
120
Industrial production
Production of services
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.16. Mortgage rates in Sweden
Percent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
5-year listed mortgage rate
1
1
3-month listed mortgage rate – average
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Listed mortgages, average of the rates that Nordea, SBAB, SEB, Spintab and Stadshypotek publish in newspapers etc.
Sources: Nordea, Reuters EcoWin, SBAB, Statistics Sweden, SEB, Spintab, Stadshypotek and the Riksbanken
Figure 3.17. Bank lending to companies and
households
Annual percentage change
20
20
Households
Companies
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.18. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-20
-30
-10
-20
Business sector excluding housing
Housing
-30
Public authorities
-40
-40
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.19. Capacity utilisation in industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.20. Foreign trade with goods in fixed prices
Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
120
120
110
110
Export
100
100
Import
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
80
85
90
95
Note. Three-month moving average. Fixed prices calculated by the Riksbank.
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.21. New export orders
Net figures and annual percentage change
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
Orders, NIER (net figures)
Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)
-60
-60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.22. Employment, labour force and
unemployment
Thousands and percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
5000
10
4800
8
4600
6
4400
4
Employed (left)
4200
2
Labour force (left)
Unemployment (right)
4000
0
01
02
03
Note. Three-month moving averages.
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.23. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
100
20
New vacancies (left scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
80
16
60
12
40
8
20
4
0
0
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.24. Employees in the business sector,
expectations and outcome
Seasonally adjusted net figures
30
30
Expectations
20
20
Outcome
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.25. Wages
Annual percentage change
8
8
Public sector
7
Business sector
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
Note. Preliminary outcomes in the past 12 months, usually revised upwards.
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.26. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
4
4
CPIF excluding energy
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.27. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
140
140
Outcome
120
120
Futures up to and including
18 October 2010
Futures up to and including
26 August 2010
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.
Source: Intercontinental exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 3.28. Commodity prices
Index 2000 = 100, USD
350
350
Total
Metals
Other agricultural products
Food
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: The Economist
Figure B01. GDP in Sweden and the world
Logarithmised index, 2007 = 100
110
110
Sweden
105
105
Euro area
USA
100
100
TCW
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
00
02
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
04
06
08
10
12
14
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Figure B02. Volume of world trade, export markets and
Swedish exports
Index 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
180
180
Export markets
Total Swedish exports
160
160
World trade
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Netherlands Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B03. Export volumes in Sweden, the euro area
and the United States
Index 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
160
160
Sweden
140
Euro area
USA
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
Figure B04. General government net lending in Sweden,
the euro area and the USA
Percentage of GDP
6
6
Sweden
4
4
Euro area
USA
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: OECD
Figure B05. Development of central government debt in
Sweden, the euro area and the USA
Percentage of GDP
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
Sweden
Euro area
50
50
USA
40
40
90
92
Note. Public gross debt.
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: OECD
Figure B06. Households’ saving ratio in various
countries
Percentage of disposable income
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
Sweden
Germany
USA
Spain
Ireland
2
2
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Sources: National statistical authorities and the OECD
Figure B07. Consumer confidence in Sweden, the euro
area and the USA
Number of standard deviations from mean value
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
Sweden
-2
Euro area
-3
USA
-4
-3
-4
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: The Conference Board, DG ECFIN and National Institute of Economic Research
Figure B08. Real house prices in various countries
Index, 1980 = 100
400
400
Sweden
Germany
Ireland
USA
Spain
350
300
350
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: BIS, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure B09. Housing investments
Per cent of GDP
14
14
Sweden
USA
12
12
Germany
Spain
10
10
Ireland
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
Note. The data for Ireland consists of annual data.
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: Local statistical authorities, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B11. Policy rates abroad
TCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly mean values
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
Main Scenario
Lower policy rates abroad
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The respective central banks
Figure B12. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly mean values
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Main Scenario
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure B13. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 18.11.92 = 100
150
150
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
115
115
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure B14. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly mean values
4.0
4.0
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B15. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly mean values
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
-2
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
-2
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B16. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from potential level
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
06
-3
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B17. Unemployment
Per cent
9
9
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B18. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonallyadjusted data
10
10
Lower policy rates abroad
Repo rate according to forward rates
Main Scenario
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B19 Outline of the production function approach
Figure B20. Solow residual and estimated TFP
Index 1980 = 100
-4.6
-4.6
Solow residual
-4.7
-4.7
Estimated TFP
-4.8
-4.8
-4.9
-4.9
-5.0
-5.0
-5.1
-5.1
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3
-5.3
-5.4
-5.4
-5.5
-5.5
-5.6
-5.6
80
85
90
95
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
00
05
10
15
Source: The Riksbank
Figure B21. Labour force participation, actual and
potential
Percentage of the population, 16–64 years of age
86
86
Actual
85
85
Potential
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
81
80
80
79
79
78
78
90
95
00
05
10
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B23. Model assessments of long-term
unemployment
Per cent of labour force
12
12
Unemployment
SVAR
10
10
HP trend
UC Okun
UC trend-cycle
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
Note. SVAR is a structural VAR model. The model includes GDP and unemployment. Long-term unemployment is the level of unemployment that
would have been observed in the absence of demand shocks. The cyclical variation has been filtered out of the HP trend.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B23. Actual and long-term unemployment
Per cent of labour force, 16–64 years of age
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
Actual
2
2
Long-term
0
0
90
95
00
05
10
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B24. Hours worked, actual and potential
Number of hours per capita and week, 16–64 years of age
26.0
26.0
Actual
25.5
25.5
Potential
25.0
25.0
24.5
24.5
24.0
24.0
23.5
23.5
23.0
23.0
22.5
22.5
22.0
22.0
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
05
10
15
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A1. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average values
Repo rate
Kv 2 2010
0.25
Kv 3 2010
0.55
Kv 4 2010
1.0 (0.9)
Kv 4 2011
2.0 (2.4)
Kv 4 2012
2.9 (3.3)
Kv 4 2013
3.4
Source: The Riksbank
Table A2. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
2009
-0.3
2010
1.2 (1.1)
2011
1.7 (1.9)
2012
2.2 (2.5)
2013
2.6
CPIF
1.9
2.0 (2.0)
1.3 (1.3)
1.5 (1.7)
1.9
CPIF excl. energy
2.3
1.7 (1.6)
1.5 (1.5)
1.6 (1.8)
1.9
HICP
1.9
1.8 (1.8)
1.0 (1.1)
1.3 (1.5)
1.7
CPI
Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index
of consumer prices which does not include household mortgage costs.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Summary of financial forecasts
Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
General government net
lending*
2009
0.7
3.3
2010
0.5 (0.5)
2.8 (2.8)
2011
1.7 (1.9)
3.1 (3.1)
2012
2.6 (3.0)
3.7 (3.8)
2013
3.3
4.3
140.2
129.1 (130.8)
121.9 (123.8)
121.4 (122.6)
122.2
-1.2
0.4 (0.0)
1.4 (0.9)
1.6 (1.4)
1.2
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A4. International conditions
Annual percentage change
GDP
Euro area (0,15)
USA (0,20)
Japan (0,06)
2009
-4.0
-2.6
-5.2
2010
1.6 (1.5)
2.7 (2.6)
2.9 (2.9)
2011
1.3 (1.3)
2.4 (2.2)
1.3 (1.6)
2012
1.9 (1.9)
3.0 (2.9)
1.6 (1.7)
2013
2.2
3.1
1.8
OECD (0,57)
-3.4
2.7 (2.5)
2.2 (2.2)
2.6 (2.6)
2.7
TCW-weighted (0,49)
-3.8
1.9 (1.6)
1.7 (1.7)
2.0 (2.0)
2.2
World (1,00)
-0.7
4.6 (4.3)
4.0 (4.0)
4.3 (4.3)
4.4
CPI
2009
0.3
-0.3
-1.4
0.5
2010
1.5 (1.4)
1.7 (1.6)
-0.9 (-0.8)
1.6 (1.5)
2011
1.4 (1.3)
1.5 (1.5)
-0.2 (-0.2)
1.5 (1.4)
2012
1.2 (1.4)
1.3 (1.6)
0.2 (0.2)
1.3 (1.5)
2013
1.8
1.5
0.6
1.7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.7 (0.7)
0.5 (0.5)
0.8 (0.9)
1.3 (1.9)
2.4
62
-13.1
79 (77)
10.0 (9.5)
86 (83)
8.0 (7.9)
89 (86)
6.9 (6.8)
90
6.4
Euroområdet (HIKP)
USA
Japan
TCW-weighted
Policy rates in the rest of the world,
TCW-weighted
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel Brent
Swedish export market
Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF. The Swedish export market index is
calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports.
They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table A5. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investment*
Exports
Imports
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Final figure for domestic demand*
Net exports*
Current account (NA), per cent of GDP
2009
-0.8
1.7
-16.0
-1.5
-12.4
-13.2
-5.1
-5.1
-3.1
-0.5
2010
3.5 (3.3)
1.8 (1.2)
5.6 (5.0)
2.0 (1.6)
11.7 (11.4)
14.6 (14.1)
4.8 (4.1)
4.6 (3.9)
3.2 (2.9)
-0.4 (-0.3)
2011
2.6 (2.4)
0.9 (1.1)
8.4 (8.1)
0.4 (0.3)
8.5 (7.7)
8.6 (8.3)
3.8 (3.5)
3.9 (3.5)
3.0 (2.9)
0.5 (0.2)
2012
2.1 (1.9)
0.5 (0.6)
5.4 (5.7)
0.1 (0.1)
5.5 (5.8)
5.7 (5.9)
2.5 (2.6)
2.9 (3.0)
2.1 (2.2)
0.2 (0.3)
2013
2.0
0.7
5.1
0.1
5.8
6.1
2.4
2.4
2.1
0.2
7.3
6.2 (5.9)
6.4 (5.9)
6.5 (5.9)
6.5
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted,
unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A6. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Potential hours worked
0.7
1.2
0.4 (0.4)
0.9 (0.9)
0.1 (0.1)
0.5 (0.5)
0.0 (0.0)
0.4 (0.4)
-0.1
0.2
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
Employed, aged 15-74
-5.1
-2.6
-2.1
4.6 (3.9)
1.6 (1.5)
0.9 (1.0)
3.9 (3.5)
1.5 (1.1)
1.7 (1.5)
2.9 (3.0)
0.8 (0.8)
0.9 (0.7)
2.4
0.5
0.6
Labour force, aged 15-74
Unemployment, aged 15-74 *
0.2
8.3
1.0 (1.2)
8.4 (8.5)
0.7 (0.8)
7.6 (7.9)
0.4 (0.4)
7.2 (7.6)
0.2
6.8
Population, aged 16-64
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy
as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Hourly wage, NM O
Hourly wage, NA
Employer’s contribution*
Hourly labour cost, NA
Productivity
Unit labour cost
2009
3.4
2.8
-1.0
1.8
-2.6
2010
2.5 (2.6)
1.7 (1.9)
-0.1 (-0.1)
1.6 (1.8)
2.9 (2.3)
2011
2.7 (2.7)
2.9 (2.9)
0.1 (0.1)
3.0 (2.9)
2.3 (2.4)
2012
3.1 (3.1)
3.4 (3.3)
0.1 (0.1)
3.4 (3.3)
2.0 (2.2)
2013
3.4
3.6
0.0
3.6
1.9
4.5
-1.2 (-0.5)
0.6 (0.5)
1.3 (1.1)
1.7
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Alternative scenario with a
”double dip” abroad, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
GDP abroad
CPI abroad
Interest rate abroad, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index,
1992-11-18=100
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP-gap, per cent
Repo rate , per cent
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-3.8
0.5
0.7
1.8 (1.9)
1.6 (1.6)
0.5 (0.5)
0.3 (1.7)
1.3 (1.5)
0.7 (0.8)
1.8 (2.0)
1.0 (1.4)
0.8 (1.3)
2.5 (2.2)
1.4 (1.7)
1.8 (2.4)
140.2
129.1 (129.1)
121.6 (121.9)
121.8 (121.4)
123.3 (122.2)
1.9
-0.3
-5.1
-2.2
8.3
-6.4
0.7
2.0 (2.0)
1.2 (1.2)
4.6 (4.6)
-1.5 (-1.5)
8.4 (8.4)
-3.5 (-3.5)
0.5 (0.5)
1.1 (1.3)
1.2 (1.7)
3.7 (3.9)
-0.8 (-0.6)
7.6 (7.6)
-1.3 (-1.1)
1.3 (1.7)
1.3 (1.5)
1.7 (2.2)
3.1 (2.9)
-0.2 (-0.1)
7.2 (7.2)
0.1 (0.0)
1.9 (2.6)
2.0 (1.9)
2.8 (2.6)
2.6 (2.4)
0.2 (0.2)
6.8 (6.8)
0.7 (0.4)
2.9 (3.3)
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted international variables.
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Alternative scenario with faster
domestic upswing, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Private consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Productivity
Hourly labour cost
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP-gap, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
CPIF
CPI
Repo rate , per cent
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-0.8
-16.0
-2.6
1.8
-2.2
8.3
-6.4
-5.1
1.9
-0.3
0.7
3.5 (3.5)
5.9 (5.6)
2.9 (2.9)
1.6 (1.6)
-1.5 (-1.5)
8.4 (8.4)
-3.5 (-3.5)
4.6 (4.6)
2.0 (2.0)
1.2 (1.2)
0.5 (0.5)
3.4 (2.6)
10.7 (8.4)
2.5 (2.3)
3.6 (3.0)
-0.4 (-0.6)
7.4 (7.6)
-0.7 (-1.1)
4.2 (3.9)
1.5 (1.3)
2.0 (1.7)
1.9 (1.7)
2.7 (2.1)
5.4 (5.4)
2.4 (2.0)
4.2 (3.4)
0.1 (-0.1)
6.8 (7.2)
0.8 (0.0)
3.3 (2.9)
1.8 (1.5)
2.5 (2.2)
3.0 (2.6)
2.0 (2.0)
4.0 (5.1)
2.2 (1.9)
3.8 (3.8)
0.2 (0.2)
6.7 (6.8)
1.4 (0.4)
2.6 (2.4)
2.0 (1.9)
2.5 (2.6)
3.4 (3.3)
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Alternative scenario with
higer repo rate, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Repo rate , per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Unemployment, per cent
CPIF
CPI
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.7
-5.1
-2.2
-6.4
8.3
1.9
-0.3
0.5 (0.5)
4.5 (4.6)
-1.5 (-1.5)
-3.5 (-3.5)
8.4 (8.4)
2.0 (2.0)
1.2 (1.2)
2.0 (1.7)
3.6 (3.9)
-0.7 (-0.6)
-1.4 (-1.1)
7.7 (7.6)
1.1 (1.3)
1.7 (1.7)
2.6 (2.6)
2.8 (2.9)
-0.3 (-0.1)
-0.3 (0.0)
7.3 (7.2)
1.4 (1.5)
1.9 (2.2)
3.2 (3.3)
2.5 (2.4)
0.1 (0.2)
0.2 (0.4)
6.9 (6.8)
1.9 (1.9)
2.6 (2.6)
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Alternative scenario with
lower repo rate, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Repo rate , per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Unemployment, per cent
CPIF
CPI
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.7
-5.1
-2.2
-6.4
8.3
1.9
-0.3
0.4 (0.5)
4.6 (4.6)
-1.5 (-1.5)
-3.5 (-3.5)
8.4 (8.4)
2.0 (2.0)
1.2 (1.2)
1.4 (1.7)
4.1 (3.9)
-0.4 (-0.6)
-0.8 (-1.1)
7.4 (7.6)
1.5 (1.3)
1.7 (1.7)
2.6 (2.6)
2.9 (2.9)
0.1 (-0.1)
0.3 (0.0)
7.0 (7.2)
1.7 (1.5)
2.4 (2.2)
3.3 (3.3)
2.3 (2.4)
0.3 (0.2)
0.6 (0.4)
6.7 (6.8)
2.0 (1.9)
2.7 (2.6)
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table B1. Minimum requirements for the
composition of banks’ capital bases under Basel
III
Equity capital
Minimum
4.5%
Conservation buffer
2.5%
Minimum plus conservation
7.0%
buffer
Contracyclical buffer
0 - 2.5%
Tier 1 capital
Total capital
6.0%
8.0%
8.5%
10.5%
Table B2. Example with a lower policy
rate abroad, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Interest rate abroad, per cent
Repo rate, per cent
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.7
0.7
0.8 (0.8)
1.5 (1.7)
121.1
(121.9)
1.0 (1.3)
1.3 (1.7)
-0.6 (0.6)
7.6 (7.6)
3.8 (3.9)
1.0 (1.3)
2.1 (2.6)
119.7
(121.4)
1.1 (1.5)
1.6 (2.2)
1.6 (2.4)
2.8 (3.3)
120.1
(122.2)
1.7 (1.9)
2.4 (2.6)
-0.2 (-0.1)
7.2 (7.2)
2.9 (2.9)
0.0 (0.2)
6.9 (6.8)
2.4 (2.4)
CPIF
CPI
1.9
-0.3
0.5 (0.5)
0.5 (0.5)
129.1
(129.1)
2.0 (2.0)
1.2 (1.2)
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
-2.2
8.3
-5.1
-1.5 (-1.5)
8.4 (8.4)
4.6 (4.6)
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
140.2
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted interest rate abroad.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table B3. Example with repo rate according
to forward rates, annual average
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2009
Interest rate abroad, per cent
Repo rate, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
CPIF
CPI
Hours gap, per cent
Unemployment, per cent
GDP, calendar-adjusted
0.7
0.7
140.2
1.9
-0.3
-2.2
8.3
-5.1
2010
2011
0.5 (0.5)
0.8 (0.8)
0.5 (0.5)
1.5 (1.7)
129.1
121.1
(129.1)
(121.9)
2.0 (2.0)
1.0 (1.3)
1.2 (1.2)
1.2 (1.7)
-1.5 (-1.5) -0.6 (-0.6)
8.4 (8.4)
7.6 (7.6)
4.6 (4.6)
3.8 (3.9)
2012
2013
1.0 (1.3)
1.8 (2.6)
120.4
(121.4)
1.3 (1.5)
1.3 (2.2)
-0.1 (-0.1)
7.1 (7.2)
3.1 (2.9)
1.6 (2.4)
2.1 (3.3)
122.2
(122.2)
2.1 (1.9)
2.4 (2.6)
0.5 (0.2)
6.6 (6.8)
3.0 (2.4)
Note. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets. TCW-weighted interest rate abroad.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table B4. Decomposition of potential
GDP growth
Annual percentage change
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Potential production
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.7
2.0
Of which technology
Of which potential capital services
Of which potential hours worked
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.7
1.1
-0.1
0.4
1.4
0.1
0.2
1.6
0.3
0.2
Of
Of
Of
Of
-0.1
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
which potential average working hours
which population
which potential labour force participation
which long-term unemployment
Note: Note that the assumption of a slight fall in long-term unemployment provides a positive
contribution to the potential hours in 2009 and 2010.