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FREE network, Forum for Research on Eastern
Europe and Emerging Economies—A unique
network of economics research institutes in the
region
Stockholm
Riga
Moscow
Szczecin
Minsk
Kyiv
Tbilisi
A World in Transition=SITE research
Growth miracles, financial and economic
collapse and global economic power shifts
 Corruption and business environment
 Income distribution, poverty and
development
 Domestic political turmoil and economics
 Religion and socio-economic outcomes
 International institutions
 (Re-)Evaluating history
 Energy; crisis or revolution

Chloé LeCoq
Ph.D. SSE 2003
Energy, IO and Antitrust,
Experimental Economics
Jesper Roine
Ph.D. Stockholm University 2002
Political Economy, Public Economics,
Inequality, Long-run Development
Elena Paltseva
Ph.D. SSE 2009
Political
Economics,
Industrial
Organization
Maria Perrotta
Berlin
Ph.D. IIES 2012
Development,
political
economics
Ina Ganguli
Ph.D. Harvard 2012
labor economics, the
economics of science and
innovation
Lennart Samuelson
Ph.D. SSE 1996
Russia’s social, economic and
military history
Erik Meyersson
Ph.D. IIES 2012
Political economics,
development, economic history
Torbjörn Becker
Ph.D. SSE 1995
Macro, Financial Markets,
Development
Marieke Huysentruyt (part-time)
Ph.D. LSE 2007
Organizational Economics,
Behavioural Economics,
Development
Jenny Simon
Ph.D. MIT 2012
Fiscal policy,
macroeconomics,
public finance
Anders Olofsgård
Ph.D. SU 2001
Political Economy,
Development,
Applied
Microeconomics .
Giancarlo Spagnolo
Ph.D. SSE 1999
Antitrust and IO, Corporate
Finance and Governance,
Experimental economics, Law and
Economics, Procurement
Russia
oil forever(?)
Oilprice and Russian $ incomes
120
16000
14000
100
12000
80
10000
60
8000
6000
40
4000
20
GDP/cap USD
Oil USD
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
2000
0
Oilprice and Russian RUB incomes
110
350000
100
90
300000
80
70
250000
60
50
200000
40
30
150000
20
GDP/cap Rub 2008
Oil USD
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
1998
10
100000
The econometric version of oil
prices and Russian income
80
60
Real oil pirice (% change)
40
-10
20
0
-5
0
5
-20
-40
-60
Income (% change)
10
15
Trade: Russian exports
Mineraler
6%
Jordbruk
6%
Oil
Olja
55%
Tillverkning
20%
Gas
13%
20
16-01-06
15-12-06
15-11-06
15-10-06
15-09-06
15-08-06
15-07-06
15-06-06
15-05-06
15-04-06
15-03-06
15-02-06
100
15-01-06
110
14-12-06
14-11-06
14-10-06
14-09-06
14-08-06
14-07-06
30
14-06-06
40
14-05-06
50
14-04-06
14-03-06
14-02-06
14-01-06
Russian roller-coaster mostly down
120
120
RUB/USD: 32 -> 79
RTS:
1388 -> 700
Oil $/barrel 107 -> 33
110
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
Ruble/USD
RTSI
Oil (Brent)
50
40
30
20
Uncertain forecasts
IMF WEO Oct 2015
IMF forecast of Russian GDP
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Oct 2012
1.0
Oct 2013
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Oct 2014
Oct 2015
140
0
Income level (2011=100)
135
-5
130
125
-10
120
-15
115
110
-20
105
-25
100
-30
95
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
20
20
12
-35
11
90
IMF WEO forecasts Oct 2012 and Oct 2015
Difference 2012 to 2015 forecast (%)
Revised forecast=>major
impact on Russian incomes
Oct 2012
Oct 2015
Diff r hs)
Imports % change same quarter last year
-50
Q3-2015
Q1-2015
Q3-2014
Q1-2014
-40
Q3-2013
-30
Q1-2013
-20
Q3-2012
Q1-2012
Q3-2011
Q1-2011
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Q3-2009
Q1-2009
Q3-2008
Q1-2008
Q3-2007
Q1-2007
50
10
40
8
30
6
20
4
10
2
0
0
-10
-2
GDP
-4
-6
Imports
-8
-10
GDP % change same quarter last year
Income and imports
Reserve fund coming down…
Inflation coming down?
Sweden
Russia forever(?)
1400
FDI
annual
FDI fromflows,
Sweden to Russia,
annual averages
averages 2007-2014
1200
1000
USD million
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Swe to Rus 2007-2014
SCB
CBR
Rus to Swe 2007-2014
Company gross investment data
6,0
5,0
Economic importance of Russia from a Swedish
perspec ve (2014 shares of Swedish totals)
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Swe exp Swe imp Swe
Rus Swe FDI Rus FDI inRus share Rus share
to Rus from Rus por olio por olio in Rus Swe of world of MSCI
in Rus in Swe
GDP AWCI
6,0
5,0
Economic importance of Sweden from a Russian
perspec ve (2014 shares of Russian totals)
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Rus exp Rus imp Rus
Swe Rus FDI in Swe FDI Swe
Swe
to Swe from Swe por olio por olio Swe in Rus share of share of
in Swe in Rus
world MSCI
GDP AWCI
Swedish greenfield FDI in Russia Jan 2003-Aug 2015
Total value USD 14.8 billion
Coal, Oil and
Natural Gas
3%
Fin. Serv.
3%
Other
10%
Consumer
Products
30%
Paper etc
7%
Leisure
7%
Communica ons
8%
Automo ve
11%
Real Estate
21%
Swedish imports from Russia 2014
manufactured goods
3%
chemical prod. etc
8%
other
3%
other fuels and oils
11%
crude oil
75%
Russian greenfield FDI in Sweden Jan 2003-Aug 2015
Total value USD 767 million
Fin service
4%
Leisure
10%
Petroleum prod
56%
ICT
30%
400
Russian macro variables and FDI from Sweden to Russia
350
Index 2005=100
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Swe gross FDI flows to Rus
2005
2006
2007
Russia GDP in USD
2008
2009
RUB/SEK
2010
Oil price
2011
2012
2013
2014
Swe FDI stock in Rus
Returns on Swedish FDI 2005-2014
Mean
Total
Total ex Russia
Russia
China
Brazil
Poland
Baltic3
10.2
10.0
22.6
18.9
26.1
9.9
16.7
St dev Mean/St.dev.
2.2
2.2
6.8
6.7
12.2
6.2
7.3
4.7
4.6
3.3
2.4
1.9
1.1
1.9
2500
Company data
USD million
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Swe buy Rus
Swe inv Rus
Rus buy Swed
Rus inv Swe
What “should” Russia do to
diversify and modernize?
Institutions in Russia et al
Areas of institutional reforms
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Offentlig
Public
förvaltning
admin
Rulesamhälle
of
Rä
law
Corruption
Korrup
on
Not just economics…
12 years diff
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Freedom
Rä gheter
and liberty
Life
Livslängd
expectancy
Thanks!
Torbjörn Becker
Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)
@ Stockholm School of Economics
www.hhs.se/site
[email protected]