Download Jacek Szanduła, PhD Office hours: see www.szandula.pl

Jacek Szanduła, PhD
Office hours: see www.szandula.pl
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS FORECASTING
LECTURES (9 HOURS)
1. Basic concepts of forecasting (forecast functions, forecast and forecasting, forecast’s basis,
types of forecast, steps in the forecasting task).
2. Forecasting data. Time series and their components.
3. Trend-line forecasting.
4. Adaptive forecasting.
5. Trend-seasonal forecasting.
6. Trend-seasonal forecasting (cont.).
7. Simple linear regression.
8. Multiple linear regression.
9. Models with dummy variables.
LABORATORIES (20 HOURS)
1.
Forecasting data statistical adjustment and analysis (transformation, aggregation, completion of
the missing observations, detecting the outlying observations, identifying the turning points,
identifying the pattern).
2. Time series decomposition. Forecasting of the stationary variables - moving average, simple
exponential smoothing (building and evaluating a model, setting a forecast, measuring forecast
accuracy).
3. Trend – line forecasting (choosing a curve, building and evaluating a model, setting a forecast,
measuring forecast accuracy, setting a predicting interval).
4. Trend – seasonal forecasting (types of seasonal patterns, building and evaluating a model with
seasonal rates, setting a forecast, measuring forecast accuracy).
5. Test.
6. Adaptive forecasting – moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt’s model, (building and
evaluating a model, setting a forecast, measuring forecast accuracy).
7. Forecasting using simple and multiple regression (forecasting assumptions, building and
evaluating a model, setting a forecast, measuring forecast accuracy, setting a predicting
interval).
8. Models with dummy variables.
9. Test.
10. Judgmental forecasting (choosing the experts, testing the level of agreement among experts, the
Delphi Method, the Brain Storm Method, personal probability, formal models II type)
Literature:
S. Makridakis, S.C. Weelwright, R.J. Hyndman “ Forecasting. Methods and Applications” John Wiley &
Sons. Inc., New York 1998
J.E. Hanke, D.W. Wichern “Business forecasting” Pearson Prentice Hall 2005
M.P. Clements, D.F. Hendry: “A companion to economic forecasting” Blackwell Publishers 2002
J.C. Compton, S.B. Compton: “Successful business forecasting” Liberty Hall Press 1990
C.W.J. Granger: “Forecasting in business and economics” Academic Press, San Diego 1989