Download 2016 (Mar)

Economic Outlook and Trade Opportunity
Mr.Chen Namchaisiri
Chairman of The Federation of Thai Industries
May 17, 2016
1
World Economic Outlook
Source : IMF (World Economic Outlook : April, 2016)
2
The Economic Growth in Thailand
2011: 0.8% YoY
Source : NESDB
2012: 7.2% YoY
2013: 2.7% YoY
2014: 0.8% YoY
2015: 2.8% YoY
3
Source : The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
The Economic Growth in Thailand
GDP
2014
2015
GDP
0.8
- Private Consumption
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2.8
3.0
2.7
2.9
2.8
0.6
2.1
2.5
1.7
1.8
2.5
- Public Consumption
2.1
2.2
0.7
1.0
2.3
4.8
Investment
-2.4
4.7
10.3
2.6
-2.6
9.4
- Private Investment
-1.0
-2.0
3.7
-3.1
-10.1
1.9
- Government Expending
-7.3
29.8
36.6
23.2
21.9
41.4
Exporting goods and
services
0.2
0.1
1.2
1.5
1.7
-3.5
Importing goods and
services
-5.3
-0.4
2.3
0.2
-2.6
-1.3
Source : NESDB
4
The Expansion of Agricultural and Industrial Sectors
10
GDP in Agricultural Sector
2012 = 2.7
2013 = 0.8
2014 = 0.7
5
2015 = -4.2
0
Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
-5
-10
40.0
GDP in Industrial Sector
30.0
2012 = 6.9
2013 = 1.7
2014 = -0.2
2015= 0.9
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15
Source : NESDB
5
Source : The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board
The Economic Forecasting 2016
GDP
2015
Export
2016
MOC
BOT
Department
2015
2016*
Ministry of Commerce/ Dec 2015
-5.78%
5.0%
NESDB / Feb 2016
-5.78%
1.2%
JSCCIB/ May 2016
-5.78%
0-2.0%
JSCCIB
6
The Exporting Value 2016
Million USD
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
Export 18,878.4 16,895.9 18,426.8 18,160.9 18,222.4 17,669.2 18,815.8 18,566.1 17,166.7 17,100.1 15,711.2 18,993.5 19,124.5
Import 17,363.4 17,423.3 16,000.1 18,001.3 17,452.0 16,947.9 16,021.8 16,465.2 16,868.2 15,612.9 15,473.7 14,007.7 16,158.8
Balance 1,515.01 -527.4 2,426.69 159.65 770.45 721.25 2,794.02 2100.93 298.52 1,487.20 237.54 4,985.79 2,965.68
Expanding (Y-o-Y%)
2015 (All year)
-5.78%
2015 (Jan-Mar)
-4.71%
Expanding (Y-o-Y%)
2016 (Mar)
1.30%
2016 (Jan- Mar)
0.90%
Source : Ministry of Commerce
7
The ratio of Thai Export Markets (Jan - Mar 2016)
ASEAN(9), 26.15%
Etc. 43.02%
Japan, 10.06%
USA, 10.52%
EU(27), 10.25%
Export
Value Growth
อาเซียน(9) (M US$) (% Y-o-Y)
Markets
ญี่ปนุ่
ASEAN(9)
14,076
3.85
สหรัฐอเมริกา
Japan
5,416
5.66
สหภาพยุโรป(27)
USA อืน่ ๆ
5,662
-3.21
EU(27)
5,520
0.13
Source : Ministry of Commerce
8
Thai Industrial Situation
Industry Confidence Index (TISI)
March 2016 = 86.7
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 July 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
3.0
Industrial Production Index (MPI)
March 2016 = 1.83 % Y-o-Y
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
-2.0
-3.0
9
-4.0
Source : F.T.I.
Source : The Office of Industrial Economics
Consumer Confidence Index and Tourism Sector
80
78
Consumer Confidence Index
76
74
72
March 16 = 73.5
70
68
60.0 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
The number of tourists
40.0
March 16 =3.0 Millions / 15.4% (Y-o-Y)
20.0
0.0
Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Source : UTCC
10
Source : Department of Tourism
The Currency Comparison between THB and others
The currency exchange rate between May 4th, 2015 – May 4th, 2016
Japan
EU
LPDR
Hong Kong
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Brunei
Singapore
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
Thailand
Taiwan
Philippines
South Korea
China
Myanmar
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
11
The Economic Stability
1.00
%
Inflation Rate
0.50
Mar 16 = -0.46 % Y-o-Y
0.00
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
-0.50
2015
2016
-1.00
-1.50
45.0 % GDP
Public Debt: GDP
44.5
44.0
Feb 16 = 44.1%
43.5
43.0
42.5
42.0
41.5
41.0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2015
2016
1.2 %
Unemployment Rate
1.0
0.8
0.6
Mar 16 = 1.04 % Y-o-Y
0.4
0.2
0.0
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2015
2016
8.0 Billions US$
BOP
6.0
Feb 16 = 7.4 Billions US$
4.0
2.0
0.0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 12
Feb
2015
2016
Border Trade
Value (Million THB)
2013
2014
2015
Changing Ratio (% Y0-Y)
2016
2017
Jan - Mar
14/13
15/14
16/15
Jan - Mar
Total
Export
Import
BOT
BOT = Balance of Trade
Source : DITP
13
The Attracting Countries for Foreign Investment
A.T.Kearney said
that, according to the
foreign investment
index, Thailand is
belonging to 21st in
the index
Source : The 2016 A.T.Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index
14
In ASEAN, Thailand belongs to the second ranking following Singapore
South East Asia
1
2
Thailand returns to the Index after a two-year absence.
An incentive policy to attract IT companies is one
element of the strategy to give preferential treatment
to foreign projects in the technology sector.
The political reformation and “Open Policy” support
the economic stability in Thailand. Moreover, tourism
policy and investment policy also attract income from
foreign especially industry 4.0 Thus, interestingly,
Thai economic is more stable than others in the world.
Source : The 2016 A.T.Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index
15
Economic Opportunities In ASEAN and Thailand
ASEAN
Huge market size/huge population (628M)
THAI
High-valued
agricultural products
Benefits from free trade agreements with
major regional economies (ASEAN+….)
Center connectivity to ASEAN
World manufacturing and production base
High performance in
production/services
High volume of Inward
and outward FDI
Ease of doing business
Free flow of goods
Incentive for investment
18 cluster
Plenty of young and
educated labor forces
16
F.T.I. and Role of Development
The Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I)
“Driving Economy and Nation with Friendly Industries”
Parliament
Government
The Cabinet
Joint Public Private
Consultative Committee
Ministry of Industry
and Relevant Ministries
Joint Standing Committee on
Commerce, Industry and Banking
Industrial Development
The Federation of
Foundation
Thai Industries (F.T.I.)
17
F.T.I Strategies
1. Creating Thai Industry’s Competitiveness by Efficiency, Productivity and
Innovation
2. Developing Thai Industry with sustainable growth and
responsibility for Environment and Society
3. Strengthening Industries by Cluster grouping
4. Making opportunity from International Trade Agreements
5. Developing Human Resource for Thai Industrial Competency
6. Cooperating with government to support industry sectors
18
45 Industry Clubs
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers
Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration
Aluminum
Auto Parts
Automotive
Biotech
Cement
Ceramics
Chemical
Cosmetics
Dietary Supplement
Electricals, Electronics,
Telecommunications and Allied
Environment Management
Foundry
Food Processing
Footwear
Furniture
Garments
Gem and Jewelry
Gift and Decorative
Glass Manufactures
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
Granite and Marble
Herbal
Information Technology
Leather Based
Machinery and Metal Work
Medical and Health
Device Manufacturers
Palm Oil
Petro Chemical
Petroleum Refining
Pharmaceuticals
Plastic
Power Producer
Printing and Paper Packaging
Pulp and Paper
Renewable Energy
Roofing and Accessories
Rubber Based
Shipbuilding Repairing
and Steel Construction
Sugar
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
Textile
Thai Gas Manufacturers
Thai Panel Product
Thailand Iron and Steel
Wood Processing
19
12 Clusters
No.
Cluster
1
Food Processing Cluster
2
Natural Rubber and Rubberwood Cluster
3
Fashion & Lifestyle Cluster
4
Printing and Packaging Cluster
5
Environment Friendly Energy Cluster
6
Health & Beauty Products Cluster
7
10
Engineering Machinery and Metal Work
Cluster
Automotive Cluster
Electrical Electronics &
Air-Conditioning Cluster
Petrochemical Cluster
11
Construction Materials Cluster
12
Agriculture Industry Cluster
8
9
Industry Club
Supporting
Cluster
Food, Sugar, Palm oil, Printing and paper packaging,
Agricultural Machinery, Chemical, Pulp and paper, Plastics,
Steel, Herbal, Environmental management, Bio-technology,
Renewable energy
Rubber product, Furniture, Panel product, Wood Processing,
Gift and decorative
Textile, Garments, Cosmetics, Footwear, Gift and decorative
,Leather product, Furniture, Gem and Jewelry
Printing and paper packaging, Pulp and paper, Plastics, Glass,
Food, Cosmetics
Renewable energy, Power producer, Environmental
management, Sugar, Agricultural Machinery,Palm oil, Rubber Gas, Bio-technology,
product, Furniture, Panel product, Pulp and paper
Information technology
Medicine, Herbal, Cosmetics, Bio-technology
Machinery and Metal Work, Agricultural Machinery,
Shipbuilding, Repairing and Steel Construction
Automotive, Auto parts
Electrical, Electronics, telecommunications , Air-Conditioning
and Refrigeration
Petrochemical, Chemicals, Plastics, Petroleum refining
Cement, Steel, Roofing and Accessories, Granite and Marble,
Glass, Ceramic, Wood Processing, Panel product, Electrical,
Electronics, telecommunications, Aluminium
Agricultural Machinery, Machinery and Metal Work, Sugar,
Palm oil, Rubber product, Renewable energy, Food
20
Agro-Based Industry
High-Value Industry
New Wave Industry
Hi-Tech Industry
Food Processing Cluster
Fashion and Lifestyle Cluster
Environment Friendly
Energy Cluster
Automotive Cluster
Agriculture Industry Cluster
Printing and Packaging
Cluster
Electrical Electronics & AirConditioning Cluster
Health & Beauty Products
Cluster
Engineering Machinery and Metal
Work Cluster
Natural Rubber and
Rubberwood Cluster
Construction Materials Cluster
Petrochemical Cluster
Subject to “Value Chain Collaboration”
New Innovation
Cost Competition
Marketing
Data Based Center
Labor Productivity
AEC
Product Differentiation
21
Industrial Restructuring
Creating value added along supply chain under Eco - Industry
Promote 12 Clusters Support AEC
Promoting new potential industries
(Agro–based, New wave)
Developing current potential
industries
(Hi–Tech, Hi–Value Creation)
Effectively expanding production
base to the region and supporting
border trade
(Labor intensive, Commodity Based)
Supporting Upstream Industries
22
Core Mechanisms of F.T.I
Competitiveness
Improvement Section
GS-1, RFID, IRDI, ICTI, HCI, SMI,
IIE, I 4.0
Fundamental Factor Section
Economics, Trade & Investment ,TED ,
Border trade & SEZ, Logistics, Laws,
International Organization, Labor
Member Relations Section
Industry Club, Provincial F.T.I,
Member Relationship
Public Communication Section
PR, Income, CSR, Young FTI, TIPMSE,
IEI, WIS
Thank You
The Federation of Thai Industries
Queen Sirikit National Convention Center,
Zone C,4th Floor, 60 New Rachadapisek Road.
Klong Toey, Bangkok 10110 Thailand
Tel. (662) 345 1000
Fax. (662) 345 1281-83
Website : http://www.fti.or.th
http://tidic.off.fti.or.th/tidic/
24