Download Class discussion #5: Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty

IS 455 - Project Management
Complexity and Uncertainty …
Agenda
Tuesday –
Announcements
House Cleaning
Complexity and Uncertainty …
Thursday –
Team Time/Mentor meeting
No in-class meeting
COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2017
Introduction
COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2017
House Cleaning
Weekly status reports update
Introduction
• Should have a status report turned
in for each week.
• I grade only 5 of the 10 randomly
(Except team #4)
• Gave feedback on week #1 in D2L
• Not graded = > tentative grade in
feedback
• You can go in and update your
status reports
• I’ll grade the last uploaded file
• I’m planning on grading the first
status report for grade this
weekend. So you will want to
update them before then.
COPYRIGHT TOM SULZER © 2017
Effective Project Management:
Traditional, Agile, Extreme
Managing Complexity in
the Face of Uncertainty
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty in the
Project Management Landscape
Presented by
Tom Sulzer
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Summary of Chapter 9

Understanding the complexity/uncertainty domain of
projects
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Requirements
Flexibility
Adaptability
Risk vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Team Cohesiveness vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Communications vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Client Involvement vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Specification vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Change vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Business Value vs. the Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Contemporary Project Landscape
SOLUTION
Clear
Not Clear
Not Clear
GOAL
Clear
Figure
09-01
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Non-Value-Added Work
Non-value-added work involves the consumption of
resources (usually people or time) on activities that do
not add business value to the final product or process.
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
The Complexity/Uncertainty Domain
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
 Requirements
 Flexibility
 Adaptability
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Risk
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Risk Assessment Template
Risk Category (Tech, Proj. Mgmt., Org., etc.):
Scope Triangle (Time, Cost, Resources, Scope, Quality):
Risk # & Event:
Number and risk description.
Actions
Preventative measures (How to stop it from happening):
Prescriptive measures (How to deal with it when it happens):
Probability (None, Low, Med, High Very High or 0.0 to 1.0)
Likelihood the risk will materialize
Impact Potential (None, Low, Med, High, Very High or 0 to N)
How significant of an impact does the risk pose.
Priority (Yes/No):
The level or degree of importance the risk should be given.
Mitigate (Yes/Monitor/No):
The level or degree of importance the risk should be given.
Normalized Risk (#s Only):
Product of Probability and Impact Potential
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Class Exercise – Work through assessing risk
Risk Category (Tech, Proj. Mgmt., Org., etc.):
Scope Triangle (Time, Cost, Resources, Scope, Quality):
Risk # & Event:
1.
The client changes requirements frequently.
Actions
Preventative measures (How to stop it from happening):
Prescriptive measures (How to deal with it when it happens):
Probability (None, Low, Med, High Very High or 0.0 to 1.0)
Likelihood the risk will materialize
Impact Potential (None, Low, Med, High, Very High or 0 to N)
How significant of an impact does the risk pose.
Priority (Yes/No):
The level or degree of importance the risk should be given.
Mitigate (Yes/Monitor/No):
The level or degree of importance the risk should be given.
Normalized Risk (#s Only):
Product of Probability and Impact Potential
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch03: What Are the PM Process Groups?
Static Risk Assessment Matrix
Probability
L
M
H
Ignore
L
Consider
Loss
M
Take Action
H
Figure
03-03
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Team Cohesiveness
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Communications
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Client Involvement
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Goal
Clear
Clear
Solution
Not
Clear
 Client comfort zone
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
 Ownership by the client
 Client sign-off
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Specification
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
The Requirements Breakdown Structure
Figure
09-02
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Change
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Business Value
Not
Clear
Q4
Q3
Q1
Q2
Clear
Not
Clear
Goal
Clear
Solution
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Class discussion #1:
Suppose two projects have the same expected business
value. Project A has a very high estimated business value
along with a high probability of failure. Project B has a much
lower estimated business value along with a low probability
of failure. If you could do only one of the projects, which one
would you choose and under what conditions?
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Class discussion #2:
Planning APM, xPM, and MPx projects is done just-in-time,
rather than at the beginning of the project as in TPM
projects. How would you defend the statement that TPM
projects take longer than any other project in the
landscape?
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Class discussion #3:
How might your approach to risk management change as
you move from the less risky TPM projects to the riskier
APM, xPM, and MPx projects?
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Class discussion #4:
What might you do to increase meaningful client
involvement?
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017
Ch09: Complexity and Uncertainty …
Class discussion #5:
Change is the bane of the TPM project manager and is a
necessity for the APM project manager. Is the client likely to
be confused about the role of change, and what would you
do to mitigate that confusion?
Copyright Tom Sulzer © 2017