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Chapter 5 Discrete Random Variables Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. Chapter Outline 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 Two Types of Random Variables Discrete Probability Distributions The Binomial Distribution The Poisson Distribution (Optional) The Hypergeometric Distribution (Optional) Joint Distributions and the Covariance (Optional) 5-2 LO 5-1: Explain the difference between a discrete random variable and a continuous random variable. 5.1 Two Types of Random Variables Random variable: a variable that assumes numerical values determined by the outcome of an experiment Discrete Continuous Discrete random variable: Possible values can be counted or listed The number of defective units in a batch of 20 A rating on a scale of 1 to 5 Continuous random variable: May assume any numerical value in one or more intervals The waiting time for a credit card authorization The interest rate charged on a business loan 5-3 LO 5-2: Find a discrete probability distribution and compute its mean and standard deviation. 5.2 Discrete Probability Distributions The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a table, graph or formula that gives the probability associated with each possible value that the variable can assume Denote the values of the random variable by x and the value’s associated probability by p(x) 5-4 LO 5-3: Use the binomial distribution to compute probabilities. 5.3 The Binomial Distribution The binomial experiment… 1. Experiment consists of n identical trials 2. Each trial results in either “success” or “failure” 3. Probability of success, p, is constant from trial to trial 4. Trials are independent If x is the total number of successes in n trials of a binomial experiment, then x is a binomial random variable 5-5 LO 5-4: Use the Poisson distribution to compute probabilities (Optional). 5.4 The Poisson Distribution (Optional) Consider the number of times an event occurs over an interval of time and assume 1. 2. The probability of occurrence is the same for any intervals of equal length The occurrence in any interval is independent of an occurrence in any nonoverlapping interval If x = the number of occurrences in an interval, then x is a Poisson random variable e x px x! 5-6 LO5-4 Poisson Probability Calculations px p 0 p 1 p 2 p 3 p 4 p 5 e x x! 0 e .4 .4 0! 1 e .4 .4 1! 2 e .4 .4 2! 3 e .4 .4 3! 4 e .4 .4 4! 5 e .4 .4 5! .6703 .2681 .0536 .0072 .0007 .0001 5-7 LO 5-5: Use the hypergeometric distribution to compute probabilities (Optional). 5.5 The Hypergometric Distribution (Optional) Population consists of N items r of these are successes (N-r) are failures If we randomly select n items without replacement, the probability that x of the n items will be successes is given by the hypergeometric probability formula r N r x nx P ( x) N n 5-8 LO5-5 The Mean and Variance of a Hypergeometric Random Variable Mean r x n N Variance 2 x r N n r n 1 N N N 1 5-9 LO 5-6: Compute and understand the covariance between two random variables (Optional). 5.6 Joint Distributions and the Covariance (Optional) 5-10 LO5-6 Covariance To measure the association between x and y, can calculate the covariance between x and y Calculate (x-µx)(y-µy)=(x-.124)(y-.124) for each combination of values of x and y Note that .124 is the mean of both distributions Multiply each (x-µx)(y-µy) value by the probability of p(x,y) and sum results The result is the covariance Denoted by σ2xy 5-11