Download Analiza transmisiei pre*urilor pe filierele agroalimentare din România

CECILIA ALEXANDRI, Institute of Agricultural
Economics, email: [email protected]
20 ans de transition
agricole et rural a l’Est: quel enseignements?
Conference SFER – Rural’Est:
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Instability of world and European agricultural
markets – evolutions and causes
Methodological elements, data sources, indicators
for the analysis of Romania’s situation
Discussion of results regarding the agricultural
prices, the processing prices and consumer prices
evolution in Romania
The analysis of price volatility in different stages of
the agrifood chains
Conclusions
Structural factors
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Agricultural productivity trends
stagnate or decrease
Lack of public funds invested in
agricultural research
Fast growth of demand due to
record development rates,
urbanization and change of diet
in the emergent countries
Other destinations given to the
agricultural production (biofuels)
Seasonality of agricultural
production constrains the
adjustment possibility
Conjuncture
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Extreme weather conditions
Low level of stocks
Increase of energy and oil prices
Increased presence of
speculative investment funds on
agricultural raw materials
markets
Economic crisis
The intensity of
adjustment
How much of the agricultural price variation is
transmitted along chains to final consumers
The transmission intensity depends on the cost
structure, chain and market operation, etc
Rate of adjustment
Length of time in which the agricultural price
variation is transmitted to the final consumer
-The marketing policy of large retailers
-Spatial dispersion and number of stages of the
chains
The asymmetry of
price adjustment
To what extent the increase or diminution of
agricultural prices is transmitted to the final
consumer
Increase of agricultural price
Diminution of agricultural price
consumer price
increase of consumer price
increase or diminution of
Agricultural prices are volatile, mainly in the recent
period- since 2007 there have been two price
increase/decrease cycles.
 Consumer prices are more stable.
 On long term (in the last 50 years) :
-Agricultural prices had a decreasing tendency, but
many experts support the vision that the trend will
reverse in the next years
-Consumer prices had a slow increasing tendency,
almost continuous
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Monthly series of agricultural price, processing price and
consumer price indices, by sector and by main products
Perioad January 2006-November 2010
Analysis of price transmission at the level of the entire
agrifood sector and for the baking and meat and meat
products chains
Analysis of price volatility in different stages of the chains
and their dispersion evaluation, by certain time periods,
through variation coefficients .
IPCa - 29%, Pret procesare - 54%, Pret agricol - 66%
Prices evolution in the different stages of the
milling and baking chain (2005=100)
Evolution of prices along the chain of meat
and meat products (2005=100)
Crop products
18
16.2
Animal products
16
14
%
12
Processing prices
11.2
8.4
10
8
5.8
2
0
2.4
8.8
4.6
6
4
Consumer prices
10.8
1.2
9.4
8.9
5.1
4.5
3.4
0.5
0.6
0.7 1
0.7
0.8
0
Wages
Vest
40
39 39
Sud-Vest Oltenia
120
Bucuresti
40
Sud-Est
41
45
Sud-Muntenia
Pensions
47
Nord-Est
60
60
Centru
120
Nord-Vest
80
UE=100%
140
Romania
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1990=100%
INCOMES EVOLUTION IN REAL
TERMS
GDP IN PPP-S TERMS IN DIFFERENT
REGIONS OF ROMANIA
113
100
100
80
51
29
36
2006
2008
20
20
0
ANNUAL AVERAGE CONSUMPTION
PER CAPITA IN 2009
CHANGES IN THE FOOD CONSUMPTION
IN ROMANIA IN THE YEAR 2009
COMPARED TO THE YEAR 2000
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In the investigated period 2005- November 2010:
The agricultural prices experienced size variations higher than in EU , mainly prices of
vegetable products, due to the instability of the Romanian agricultural supply and
fragmentation of the regional markets.
The consumer prices were more stable, being restricted by the purchasing power, yet
they have an almost constant increasing tendency at low rates.
Price transmission along the chains has an asymmetric character in the sense that the
processing price and the consumer price increase even though the agricultural price
decreases (for instance on the meat and cereal products chain)
The distortions in price variation transmission along the chains is mainly due to the
asymmetry of the negotiation power between the economic operators on the agrifood
chains and the farmers, and to the imperfect competition on the markets
A significant part of the consumed food products comes from import (for example:
vegetables, fruit, meat preparations, even cereals in some poor agricultural years); that
is why the world and European market evolutions are directly felt by the Romanian
consumer
In November 2010, compared to 2005, in nominal terms:
-agricultural prices increased by 80%
-processing prices increased by 56%
- consumer prices by 30%
-the gross average salary income by 101%