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Patent Indicators for Macroeconomic Growth – the Value of Patents Estimated by Export Volume
Peter Neuhaeusler1, Rainer Frietsch2, Taehyun Jung3, Bart van Looy4
1
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe,
Germany, E-Mail: [email protected]
2
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe,
Germany, E-Mail: [email protected]
3
CIRCLE, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, E-Mail: [email protected]
4
Department of Managerial Economics, Strategy and Innovation, K.U. Leuven,
Belgium, E-Mail: [email protected]
Short Abstract
This paper examines the linkage between patenting and export performance for
selected countries at the level of technology fields. Some empirical studies
show a considerable correlation between the patenting behavior of countries
and their economic success on international markets. Adding to the already existing literature, the aim of this analysis is to assess whether the indicators that
are supposed to reflect patent value – like patent citations or family size - have
any explanatory power to estimate the export value of countries by technology
fields.
For the study, a panel dataset consisting of annual data (1988-2008) on international trade from the UN-COMTRADE database and patent data from the “EPO
Worldwide Patent Statistical Database” was developed.
The results show that exports prove to be of good use to act as a valuation of
patents. Patents and export amounts are strongly correlated, though some disturbances to this parallelism are visible. Concerning the meaning and interpretation of the patent value indicators the results are ambiguous. IPC-classes and
inventor counts do not prove to be of relevance to predict the export value of
patents, while family size has a restricted predicting power. Especially forward
citations are promising when analysing patent applications instead of granted
patents.
Abstract
This paper examines the linkage between patenting and export performance for
selected countries at the level of technology fields. Several empirical studies
show that a considerable correlation between the patenting behavior of countries and their economic success on international markets exists. The result that
patents can explain export streams corresponds to the discussion in the empirical and theoretical literature which assumes that the long-term development of
market shares is not driven by price competition, but by technology and quality
competition. According to the product cycle model, which states that new or advanced products integrating superior technology will form temporary oligopolistic markets, it is assumed that increased technological capability of a country or
a technology sector - measured by patent output - leads to a higher export performance.
The overall aim of this analysis is to assess whether the indicators that are supposed to reflect patent value – like patent citations, patent granting and family
size - have any explanatory power to estimate the export value of countries by
technology fields.
For the study a panel dataset consisting of annual data (1988-2008) on international trade from the UN-COMTRADE database was developed. The number of
European patent applications and patent quality indicators from the “EPO
Worldwide Patent Statistical Database” were matched to the export data. Additional country information - like GDP or population size – for the recent 20 years
from OECD databases were added to this dataset. The panel finally comprises
19 countries, aggregated to 35 technology groups for each country for each
year. The merger of patents and exports was achieved by applying the definitions of a set of 35 high-tech fields and the residual low-tech area, both in terms
of SITC (exports) and IPC (patents). This definition relies on Grupp et al.
(2000), as well as Legler and Frietsch (2007).
This database is used to analyze correlations, their change over time and their
difference over countries. Furthermore, export intensity – defined as the value
of exports per patent – is calculated, that can be interpreted as the export value
of patents. A dynamic panel regression model is engaged whereby the additional effect of patent predictors on export performance is disentangled – beside
R&D expenditures, capital investments etc.
The results show that exports prove to be of good use to act as a valuation of
patents. The number of EPO patent applications and export amounts are
strongly correlated, though some disturbances to this parallelism are visible.
However, results are still ambiguous concerning the meaning and interpretation
of the patent value indicators. While IPC classes and inventor counts do not
prove to be of any relevance to predict the export value of patents, especially
forward citations are promising when patent applications instead of granted patents are analyzed. Also family size has a restricted predicting power, which can
be explained by the fact that individual family members cover differently valuable markets and therefore each member reaches a differing export value.
Literature
Grupp, H./Legler, H./Jungmittag, A./Schmoch, U. (2000): Hochtechnologie
2000. Neudefinition der Hochtechnologie für die Berichterstattung zur
technologischen Leistungsfähigkeit Deutschlands. Karlsruhe/Hannover:
Fraunhofer ISI.
Legler, H./Frietsch, R. (2007): Neuabgrenzung der Wissenswirtschaft forschungsintensive Industrien und wissensintensive Dienstleistungen (=
Studien zum deutschen Innovationssystem Nr. 22-2007),
Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) (Hrsg.). Berlin.