Download Risk management planning

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Projektledning och
Projektmetodik
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Agenda
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Avstämning
PMBOK – Risk management
– Riskhanteringens grunder
– Metoder och användning
Lärmål
– Grundläggande introduktion till Riskhantering i
projekt
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Project Risk Management
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Project risk management is the art and science of
identifying, assigning, and responding to risk
throughout the life of a project and in the best interests
of meeting project objectives
Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but
it can help improve project success by helping select
good projects, determining project scope, and
developing realistic estimates
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Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area
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What is Risk?
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A dictionary definition of risk is “the
possibility of loss or injury”
Project risk involves understanding potential
problems that might occur on the project and
how they might impede project success
Risk management is like a form of insurance;
it is an investment
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Why Take Risks?
Because of Opportunities!
The goal of project risk management is to:
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minimize potential risks, while
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maximizing potential opportunities.
Try to balance risks and opportunities
Risks
Opportunities
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Project Risk Management Processes
The goal of project risk management is to minimize potential risks while
maximizing potential opportunities. Processes are:
– Risk management planning: deciding how to approach and plan the
risk management activities for the project
– Risk identification: determining which risks are likely to affect a
project and documenting their characteristics
– Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and analyzing risks and
prioritizing their effects on project objectives
– Quantitative risk analysis: measuring the probability and
consequences of risks
– Risk response planning: taking steps to enhance opportunities and
reduce threats to meeting project objectives
– Risk monitoring and control: monitoring known risks, identifying new
risks, reducing risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk reduction
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Risk Management Planning
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The main output of risk management
planning is a risk management plan
The project team should review project
documents and understand the
organization’s and the sponsor’s approach to
risk
The level of detail will vary with the needs of
the project
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Contingency and Fallback Plans, Contingency Reserves
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Contingency plans are predefined actions that the
project team will take if an identified risk event occurs
Fallback plans are developed for risks that have a high
impact on meeting project objectives
Contingency reserve or allowances are provisions held
by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate cost
or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality occur
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Risk Identification
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Risk identification is the process of understanding what
potential unsatisfactory outcomes are associated with a
particular project
Several risk identification tools and techniques include
– Brainstorming
– The Delphi technique
– Interviewing
– SWOT analysis
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Basic Categories of Risk
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Market risk: Will the new product be useful to the
organization or marketable to others? Will users
accept and use the product or service?
Financial risk: Can the organization afford to
undertake the project? Is this project the best way to
use the company’s financial resources?
Technology risk: Is the project technically feasible?
Could the technology be obsolete before a useful
product can be produced?
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Potential Risk Conditions Associated With Each Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area
Risk Conditions
Integration
Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration
management; lack of post-project review
Scope
Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition
of quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time
Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation
and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost
Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or
contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality
Poor attitude toward quality; substandard
design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance
program
Human Resources
Poor conflict management; poor project organization and
definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications
Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation
with key stakeholders
Risk
Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance
management
Procurement
Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
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Qualitative Risk Analysis
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Assess the likelihood and impact of identified
risks to determine their magnitude and
priority/ranking
Risk quantification tools and techniques
include
– Risk probability and impact
– Probability/impact risk rating matrix
– Project assumptions testing
– Data precision ranking
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Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies
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Simpler Example of Probability/Impact Analysis
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Think about potential risks related to planning a
large family reunion
Jot down at least 3 potential risks
Rank the probability of the risk as high, medium,
or low
Rank the impact of the risk as high, medium or
low
I’ll graph some of your examples
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Probability/Impact Matrix
high
Probability
med
low
low
med
high
Impact
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Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
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Top 10 Risk Item Tracking is a tool for
maintaining an awareness of risk throughout the
life of a project
Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project
risk items
List the current ranking, previous ranking,
number of times the risk appears on the list over
a period of time, and a summary of progress
made in resolving the risk item
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Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
Monthly Ranking
Risk Item
This
Last
Number
Risk Resolution
of Months Progress
Month
Month
Inadequate
planning
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2
4
Working on revising the
entire project plan
Poor definition
of scope
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3
3
Holding meetings with
project customer and
sponsor to clarify scope
Absence of
leadership
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1
2
Just assigned a new
project manager to lead
the project after old one
quit
Poor cost
estimates
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4
3
Revising cost estimates
Poor time
estimates
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5
3
Revising schedule
estimates
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Expert Judgment
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Many organizations rely on the intuitive
feelings and past experience of experts to
help identify potential project risks
Experts can categorize risks as high,
medium, or low with or without more
sophisticated techniques
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Quantitative Risk Analysis
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Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can
be done together or separately
Large, complex project involving leading edge
technologies often require extensive quantitative risk
analysis
Main techniques include
– Interviewing
– Sensitivity analysis
– Decision tree analysis
– Simulation
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Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
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A decision tree is a diagramming method used
to help you select the best course of action in
situations in which future outcomes are
uncertain
EMV is a type of decision tree where you
calculate the expected monetary value of a
decision based on its risk event probability and
monetary value
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Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example
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Simple EMV Exercise
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Project 1 has a 50% chance of providing a profit
of 200 kkr, a 20% chance of costing you 50kkr,
and a 30% chance of costing you 30kkr.
Project 2 has a 70% chance of providing a profit
of 100kkr, and 30% of costing you 1kkr.
What is the EMV for each project?
Which would you recommend?
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Simulation
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Simulation uses a representation or model of a system
to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the
system
Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome
many time to provide a statistical distribution of the
calculated results
To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three
estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus
an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being
between the optimistic and most likely values
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Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
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Risk Response Planning
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After identifying and quantifying risk, you must
decide how to respond to them
Four main strategies:
– Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or
risk, usually by eliminating its causes
– Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences
should a risk occur
– Risk transference: shifting the consequence of
a risk and responsibility for its management to a
third party
– Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk
event by reducing the probability of its
occurrence
Samples of each strategy?
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Risk Monitoring and Control
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Monitoring risks involves knowing their status
Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk
management plans as risks occur
Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events
that must be done when there are no contingency plans
The main outputs of risk monitoring and control are
corrective action, project change requests, and updates
to other plans
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Risk Response Control
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Risk response control involves executing the
risk management processes and the risk
management plan to respond to risk events
Risks must be monitored based on defined
milestones and decisions made regarding risks
and mitigation strategies
Sometimes workarounds or unplanned
responses to risk events are needed when there
are no contingency plans
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Using Software to Assist in Project Risk Management
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Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and
quantifying risks
More sophisticated risk management software,
such as Monte Carlo simulation tools, help in
analyzing project risks
Databases to keep track of risks
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Results of Good Project Risk Management
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Unlike crisis management, good project risk
management often goes unnoticed
Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless,
but a lot of work goes into running a project well
Project managers should strive to make their
jobs look easy to reflect the results of well-run
projects
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Övning (Beslutsträdsanalys)
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Pannkaksexemplet
– Du slutar jobba 17.00 och skall vara på
julkonsert 19.00. Förslaget att äta innan
konserten är pannkakor. Det tar normalt tjugo
minuter att köra hem, en halvtimme att laga
till pannkakorna, en halvtimme att äta och en
halvtimme att ta er till konserten. Till
pannkakorna behövs mjölk, ägg, salt, socker
och mjöl. Vilka risker och hur stora är de att ni
inte hinner i tid till konserten?
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