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Topic 4 Chapter 13: The objectives of economic policy THE GOALS OF GOVT POLICY IN 2009 1. *Maintaining a sustainable (non-specific) rate of eco growth in the short to medium term a. Bc of its structural problems, there is a limit on the level of growth that Aus can sustain in the short to medium term b. A high rate of growth would cause a blowout in the CAD and higher inflationary pressures 2. *Sustaining a low (non-specific) rate of unemployment a. Unemployment (and underemployment) is recognised as 1 of Aus’s major structural problems b. 2009-10 Budget has addressed unemployment… 3. *Keeping inflation low, within the range of 2-3% a. RBA’s monetary policy addresses inflation… 4. Boosting Aus’s productivity growth a. Productivity: output per unit of production per unit of time b. Govt has committed to lifting productivity growth as a central long term priority through micro reforms E.g. increased investment in education and infrastructure, alongside reforms to business regulations 5. Increasing the sustainable rate of growth in the longer term a. By implementing structural changes that aim to remove some of the constraints on eco growth such as low productivity and low workforce participation rates in some parts of the population b. Sustaining productivity growth will become more important as population ageing reduces labour force participation rate 6. Boosting workforce participation rate a. Will become more important in coming yrs as Aus’s eco growth rate is constrained by an ageing population, which reduces the proportion of ppl contributing to national production b. Addressed through changes to welfare, family payments and super policies 7. Improving Aus’s international competitiveness a. To improve Aus’s trade performance b. Addressed through measures to reduce costs, improve the quality of our exports and improve our access to overseas markets 8. Maintaining international confidence in the economy a. Important given Aus’s small size relative to world eco, and our reliance on overseas savings to fund investment in Aus b. Especially true at times of eco uncertainty c. Addressed through govt’s efforts to remain wary of how financial markets are likely to react to particular policies 9. Promoting environmental sustainability a. Growing awareness that long-term prosperity depends on addressing environmental challenges, in particular prob of water shortages and long term threat of climate change b. Addressed through policies to minimise pollution and waste, preserve natural habitats, manage water resources, improve land-use practices and promote the use of renewable energy *Major goals CONFLICTS IN GOVT POLICY OBJECTIVES 1. *Achieving a simultaneous reduction in unemployment and inflation a. The Phillips curve shows this inverse relationship bw inflation and unemployment, highlighting the trade off that govts face when making policy decisions b. Since 1993, Aus has had a low inflation target of 2-3%, which effectively gives low inflation priority over lower unemployment 2. *Achieving eco growth and external balance a. Strong eco growth often results in a deterioration in the current account on the balance of payments b. This is bc higher eco growth is often associated with increased consumption and investment volume of imports rises + c&f surplus rises CAD rises 3. Achieving eco growth at the cost of environmental damage and greater income inequality E.g. a. A govt that approves extensive mining projects without regard to their environmental effects may promote faster eco growth, but this could occur at heavy cost to natural environment and could damage other industries e.g. tourism b. Privatised companies sharply raising prices or micro reform resulting in an increase in structural unemployment 4. Short-term and longer-term objectives a. E.g. structural change involves short-term costs (such as increased structural unemployment and additional costs to govt) and long-term benefits (such as higher rate of sustainable eco growth) b. Govts often focus more on short-term objectives bc of political considerations such as the desire to be re-elected, rather than long-term objectives where benefits will be experienced for some time *Major conflicts Chapter 14: Fiscal Policy INTRODUCTION When govts make smaller changes to fiscal policy throughout the course of the year, the full costings of these decisions are set out afterwards, either in the next Budget or in the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook statement (released around late Nov. or early Dec. each yr) – Keating govt introduced it during the 1980s BUDGET OUTCOMES The fiscal/budget outcome gives an indication of the overall impact of fiscal policy on the state of the economy. There are 3 possible budget outcomes: 1. Balanced budget: a zero balance that occurs when planned govt revenue=planned govt expenditure 2. Budget surplus: a positive balance that occurs when PGR > PGE 3. Budget deficit: a negative balance occurs when PGR < PGE NB. Govts usually aim to achieve surplus/deficit to either promote eco growth/contraction The Cwth Govt’s Budget includes 2 measures of the budget outcome, which are the result of different accounting methods: 1. The fiscal outcome 2. The underlying cash outcome Each yr, the levels of govt spending and revenue collection, and thus the Budget outcome, change. This reflects the impact of 2 key factors: 1. Discretionary changes in fiscal policy Involve deliberate changes to fiscal policy such as reduced spending/changing taxation rates Influence the structural component of the Budget outcome E.g. if the govt deliberately increased expenditure in order to stimulate demand 2. Non-discretionary changes in fiscal policy Caused by changes in the level of economic activity (i.e. business cycle) Influence the cyclical component of the Budget outcome E.g. when an economy is in recession, the Budget deficit will increase whereas during a period of strong eco growth, the deficit will contract or the Budget will shift into surplus (b/c govt will earn more revenue in the form of tax from businesses that are earning more – govt not actually changing rates) Includes automatic stabilizers o Play a counter cyclical role e.g. when growth is high, demand is automatically slowed through higher tax revenues and reduced govt expenditure o Nevertheless, on their own they can only counteract the severity of the business cycle – govts still ultimately rely on discretionary policy measures o 2 main types: Unemployment benefits E.g. eco recessionlevel of eco activity fallsrise in unemploymentgreater govt expenditure on unemployment benefits Progressive income tax system (ppl on higher incomes pay proportionately more tax than those on lower incomes) E.g. eco boomemployment opps riseincomes riseworkers’ incomes fall into higher income tax brackets and ppl who were previously unemployed start paying taxincrease in govt revenue Impact on eco activity General The most sig short-term impact of fiscal policy is how it affects economic activity. The impact of fiscal policy on eco growth can be gauged by looking at the fiscal policy stance. 3 stances are possible: 1. Expansionary Where govt plans to increase level of eco activity by stimulating AD – increase in AD leads to multiplied increase in Y Can occur through either a reduction in tax revenue &/or increase in govt expenditure, creating either a smaller surplus or a larger deficit than previous yr Leads to a reduction in unemployment, but if economy grows too quickly, inflation may rise 2. Contractionary Where govt plans to decrease level of eco activity by dampening AD – decrease in AD leads to a multiplied decrease in Y Can occur through either an increase in taxation revenue and/or decrease in govt xture, creating either a smaller deficit or a larger surplus than previous yr Reduces inflation, but risks increasing unemployment if demand is reduced too much 3. Neutral Govt does not change the budget outcome from the previous year’s level Budget should, in general, have no overall effect on the level of aggregate demand and eco activity Recent trends For many yrs, fiscal policy’s most important impact was its influence on the level of eco growth o Keynesian economic theory, which dominated policy making bw the 1940s and 1970s, argued that an expansionary budget involving increased spending or tax cuts would accelerate eco growth, while a contractionary budget would decelerate eco growth Recent evidence suggests that the relationship bw fiscal policy and eco growth is more complex. E.g. The experience of the late 1990s suggests that tighter fiscal policy can sometimes actually increase the level of eco growth in the medium term, if it helps to: o Achieve lower interest rates o Improve business confidence o Make domestic funds more easily available for investment opposite of crowding out effect Changes in fiscal policy may also affect monetary policy decisions E.g. some argued that the large income tax reductions that came into effect bw 2006 and 2008 contributed to the RBA’s decisions to raise interest rates, bc they increased household consumption and added to inflationary pressures at a time when inflation was already rising Impact on resource use General 1. Direct a. Govt directs funds towards a particular area of the economy E.g. healthcare b. If govt expects that markets will not provide the resources quickly enough without govt intervention 2. Indirect a. Govt makes it more or less attractive for resources to be used in a particular way through tax and spending decisions E.g. taxes on petrol b. More likely Recent trends Unemployment and workforce participation Prior to Dec 2008, Aus’s official unemployment rate had fallen to well below 5%, its lowest level in 33 yrs Specific Budget measures have been introduced in recent yrs to address some of Aus’s longer term labour market challenges – in particular, the challenge of increasing the participation rate E.g. o 2005-06 Budget introduced ‘Welfare to Work’ o 2008-09 Budget raised the Child Care Tax Rebate from 30% to 50% o 2009-10 Budget increased the age requirement for the aged pension Impact on income distribution General From yr to yr, changes in fiscal policy play the most important role of any govt policy in influencing the distribution of income in the economy E.g. Changes to taxation arrangements o A reduction in tax rates at the upper end of the income scale would make the tax system less progressive and may create a less equal distribution of income o An increase in the rate of the GST (a regressive tax system) would make the income tax system less progressive since lower-income earners would be paying a relatively higher proportion of their incomes in tax, increasing income inequality Changes to some govt spending measures o Increase in pensions to aged, carers etc. will positively affect income distribution Recent trends Main impact of recent fiscal policy changes has been felt through changes to income tax rates o Successive budgets have substantially increased the income thresholds at which each income tax bracket cuts in, as well as making smaller reductions in the actual rates of tax o The 2008-09 budget continued this trend by outlining a long-term plan for reducing tax rates over a 4 yr period Other changes: o Increased targeting of middle-class welfare in 2009-10 budget e.g. private health insurance rebates Impact on savings and the CAD General Public sector deficit = negative savings/dissavings will reduce the level of national savings (public + private savings) o Crowding out effect o Higher foreign debt greater CAD Recent trends During the late 1980s and the 1990s, one of the main goals of fiscal policy was to help to increase national savings and reduce the CAD However, there is little evidence to suggest that Aus’s increased public savings have helped to reduce the CAD in the past decade – CAD remained at higher levels than during the 1990s 2002: Howard govt abandoned external stability as an official objective of macro policy o Instead, it ensured that the Cwth did not directly add to Aus’s savings imbalance by running a budget deficit o This yr, eco growth and low unemployment were given a higher priority – means that Aus govt is currently a net borrower METHODS OF FINANCING A DEFICIT In recent times, when it has run a deficit the Aus govt has relied exclusively on borrowing from the domestic private sector, although it has suggested that it might also consider borrowing money from overseas. Methods available to govt: 1. *Borrowing from the domestic private sector a. Under this system, the govt sets the value of bonds to be sold (determined by the size of the deficit to be financed), and the prospective purchasers tender to buy a certain quantity at a particular rate of interest b. The govt then accepts the tenders, starting with those offering to buy at the lowest rate of interest, through to the highest, until all bonds are sold c. Adv: Govt can always be certain that: i. It will fully finance its deficit ii. The market will set the interest rate on newly issued bonds d. Disadv: crowding out effect i. Describes how a budget deficit will soak up funds in Aus’s domestic savings pool, putting upward pressure on interest rates and leading to a reduction in private sector spending and investment (i.e. offsets expansionary effect of budget deficit) ii. The public sector will often ‘crowd out’ the private sector of the domestic market since lenders prefer to lend to the govt iii. This reduces private access to domestic savingsprivate sector may be forced to borrow overseas iv. The strength of effect depends on eco conditions – if govt increases fiscal deficit during economic recession, it is less likely to crowd out private sector, since I and S would be low at this time 2. *Borrowing from overseas a. To minimise the crowding out effect, whilst still stimulating growth, the govt can borrow from overseas (e.g. China and middle-eastern countries) b. The last time the govt borrowed from overseas was during the late 1980s 3. Borrowing from RBA (monetary financing/monetising the deficit) a. This amounts to the govt printing money in order to finance its expenditures b. Since 1982, with the deregulation of the financial sector, the govt has not borrowed from the RBA in order to finance its deficit c. This is bc it increases the money supply and thus adds to inflation + it means that there is no longer a direct connection bw fiscal and monetary policies 4. Selling assets a. Selling assets, such as Cwth land or the Cwth’s share in businesses, namely Telstra or Aus Post, does not reduce the level of the fiscal deficit or the underlying cash outcome, bc they are adjusted to reflect one-off transactions b. However, in cash terms from yr to yr a govt can create a headline budget surplus by selling assets *2 main sources of finance for 2009-10 Budget Using budget surpluses The govt can use the surplus in 3 ways: 1. Depositing it with the RBA 2. Using it to pay off public sector debt 3. Placing the money in a specially established, govt-owned investment fund For several yrs the govt used surplus funds to pay off public sector debt. This reduces the size of the debt, and frees up funds on financial markets for other purposes. However, the increase in funds available for private sector investment may offset the contractionary effect of the fiscal surplus. The establishment of dedicated investment funds (E.g. Building Australia Fund, Education Investment Fund, Health and Hospitals Fund in 2008) shows how Aus has shifted away from the traditional approach of simply putting surplus funds in the RBA, earning low rates of interest. Public sector borrowing and debt Although the budget outcome is an effective measure of the underlying stance of fiscal policy, it does not represent the full impact of the public sector on the economy. The public sector underlying cash outcome, on the other hand, does. It shows the borrowing needs or surplus funds from all levels of govt, as well as govt authorities and PTEs. E.g. A rising deficit or falling surplus (as a percentage of GDP) would mean greater public sector stimulus to the economy. From the late 1990s until recently, the public sector cash outcome was in surplus. Over a period of time, running a public sector deficit results in an accumulation of public sector debt (otherwise known as national debt). It consists of the accumulated debt of the govt sector, which is owed both domestically and overseas. Public sector debt has been reduced significantly over the past decade (from a peak of 34% of GDP in 1994-1995 to 0% in 2008-09), primarily as a result of lower budget deficits and the privatisation of govt business by Cwth and State govts. NB. Public sector = Cwth govt + state govt + govt instrumentalities (also known as PTEs) Net foreign debt = total amount owed to overseas lenders by public + private sectors Net public sector debt = national debt = total amount owed to domestic and overseas lenders by public sector THE CURRENT STANCE OF FISCAL POLICY History **only read 1st term of Howard govt saw substantial reductions in spending on govt programs E.g. abolition of many labour market programs, tighter eligibility test for unemployment benefits 2nd term of Howard govt saw a rebound in spending, shift in the tax mix from direct (income) tax to indirect tax (GST) 3rd and 4th terms of Howard govt saw a return to modest budget surpluses (resources boom increased govt revenue), sig personal income tax cuts, increased spending on priority areas E.g. defence 1st budget of Rudd govt saw a continued budget surplus (3 new futures funds), slowdown in growth of spending (despite income tax cuts) 2nd budget of Rudd govt saw a massive deficit in response to GFC Chapter 15: Monetary policy THE OBJECTIVES OF MONETARY POLICY Inflation targeting The decision to follow the example of several other countries including Canada and NZ in targeting inflation only reflects numerous important aspects of monetary policy: Well suited to fighting inflation Unsuccessful in achieving simultaneous goals in the past (e.g. 1980s: CAD targeting) RBA independently conducts monetary policy – minimises damaging political influence (e.g. keeping interest rates low to please voters) Possible to achieve low inflation without incurring cost of rising unemployment + it’s been part of a worldwide trend! NB. Target is flexible – inflation can emerge due to shocks and events outside of the RBA’s control but inflation should remain within target over course of business cycle. Some of the indicators considered by the RBA Board: The (underlying) inflation rate Inflationary expectations Wages growth The rate of unemployment The rate of eco growth Interest rates The exchange rate The balance of payments THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY POLICY Monetary policy involves influencing the cost and availability of money in the economy. There are 2 possible instruments for conducting monetary policy: 1. The RBA may control the growth in the money supply in the economy through its control over the money base = monetary targeting 2. The RBA may influence the general level of interest rates in the economy by setting the short run cash rate = rate-setting monetary policy (i.e. Does not directly control/regulate the market interest rates charged by banks to their customers) Monetary targeting was used in Aus from mid 1970s to early 1980s. However, it did not prove to be successful – monetary targets were regularly missed and money supply figures were distorted by the movement of funds from banks to other financial institutions that were not subject to RBA regulation and controls. Now, monetary policy in Aus (as in most other modern market economies) is implemented through an interest rate instrument. How DMO work Banks must hold a certain proportion of their funds with the RBA in Exchange Settlement accounts in order to settle payments with other banks and the RBA. E.g. funds flow from ANZ Bank’s ES account to Westpac Bank’s ES account when a customer of the ANZ bank uses a cheque to buy a g/s from a business that has a bank account at Westpac bank At the end of each trading day, settlements b/w banks cancel out, having no net impact on the supply of money. Some banks, however, will need to borrow in order to settle their daily transactions, while others will have surplus funds that they can lend to earn interest. The RBA influences the cash rate by affecting the supply of funds in the OMM through DMO. E.g. when the RBA buys second-hand Cwth govt securities from a bank, it pays for them by depositing money in the seller’s ES account, adding to total ES balances and creating a surplus of funds in the OMM. This puts downward pressure on the cash rate. Conversely, when the RBA sells securities to a bank, it withdraws money from the seller’s ES account, subtracting from total ES balances and putting upward pressure on the cash rate. In recent yrs, with declining govt debt levels reducing the supply of CGS, the RBA has shifted from using outright purchases and sales of CGS, instead using repurchase agreements to conduct DMO. However, repos won’t be needed anymore considering the size of the 2009-10 Budget deficit. THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN INTEREST RATES Monetary Domestic Overnight Cash Market interest policy market money rate rates (change to stance operations market maintain margins) Tightening RBA sells Shortage of Rises Rise govt borrowable securities funds Loosening RBA buys govt securities Excess of borrowable funds Falls Fall Consumption and investment spending Economic activity Consumers and businesses have to pay more on existing debts; new borrowers find it harder to borrow funds decrease C&B have to pay less on existing debts; new borrowers find it easier to borrow funds increase Decrease Increase The market interest rates are affected: 1. Predominately by the cash rate since 90% of a bank’s funds come from the short term money market e.g. increase in cash rate more expensive for financial institutions to obtain funds in OMM increases overall cost structure of borrowings, eventually flowing through to longer term rates, as banks try to maintain their profit margins 2. Availability of funds from overseas lenders (particularly America) = 10% e.g. banks put up rates in response to decrease in availability and therefore, increase in cost Chapter 16: Structural change and microeconomic policies STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND MICRO REFORM Structural change: Is important for individual economies because of the importance of remaining competitive in a fastchanging global economy. If an economy is slow to change, it may find that: 8 o Overseas demand for its exports falls bc it is no longer producing the most advanced products/bc other countries are now selling the same items more cheaply o Domestic demand for imports increases (for the same reasons as above) o Overall, it is likely to experience lower productivity growth, lower eco growth, higher inflation, lower competitiveness, higher external liabilities, slower growth in real incomes and lower living standards Causes of structural change: 1. Market forces: a. Technological change: can affect consumer tastes and preferences by introducing new products; leads to more efficient production processes, changing the way g&s are produced and delivered to consumers b. Changes in human behaviour: as a result of income changes, changes in the distribution of income, changing lifestyles, demographic changes – eg. In the age composition of the pop c. Increasing global specialisation: and changes in the types of goods traded and the levels and nature of foreign competition d. Resources discovery and depletion: eg. New mineral deposits, salinity problems 2. Govt policies: a. Trade and investment liberalisation: reduction in barriers to trade and deregulation of capital markets b. Reform policies in the govt sector: such as privatisation of public utilities and infrastructure, policies to promote competition for former monopolies, outsourcing of some public service activities c. Labour market reform: such as how wages are determined (enterprise bargaining etc.) d. Business regulations: in areas such as restrictive trade practices, corporation law and price monitoring e. Taxation reforms: broadening of income tax system, the GST and reforms to business taxation NB. Globalisation is a sig factor in the acceleration of this change Market forces are more active in driving structural change than govt forces Constraints on the speed of structural adjustment: 1. The speed with which factors of production can move from one area to another E.g. workers must retrain, existing capital equipment must be adjusted/replaced, entrepreneurs must find ways to convince consumers to buy new products 2. Govt policies E.g. protectionist policies may shield certain inefficient industries, labour market policies that do not allow for variations in wage levels provide no incentive for workers in declining industries to retrain etc. Recent decades have seen a shift in the govt’s focus from macroeconomic management to microeconomic reform. This reflects: The govt’s argument that many of Australia's economic problems (e.g. Aus’s regular trade deficits and labour market problems) are caused by structural factors that cannot be addressed through macroeconomic policies, which simply aim to manage the level of economic activity 9 The move from demand-side to supply-side policy measures – by improving competitiveness, productivity, and efficiency of Australian industries, micro reform aims to reduce business costs, shown through a right-ward shift in the AS curve Increasing supply as a result of micro reform MICRO REFORM AND INDIVIDUAL SECTORS Why workable competition? The govt considers competition desirable bc it will lead to a more efficient use of resources, lower production costs, product innovation, and lower prices for consumers. This is bc those remaining firms can then operate on a larger scale and achieve the lowest possible long run average costs of production However, micro policies need to adapt to the specific features of individual industries if they are to be effective in promoting structural change. Therefore, the goal of promoting competition needs to be balanced against the need for economies of scale in that industry = workable competition Business practices that are outlawed by the trade practices act include: Monopolisation: which occurs when a firm uses its dominant market position to eliminate competition, such as through temporary price cutting Price discrimination: which occurs when a firm sells the same type of good or service in different markets at different prices (for reasons not related to different costs such as for transport) Exclusive dealing: which occurs when a firm sets conditions for supply that exclude retailers from dealing with other competitors Collusion and market sharing: occurs when firms get together to fix prices or agree on a market sharing arrangement that reduces effective competition bw firms Examples of micro reform (for more details, see micro essay) 1. Deregulation a. E.g. Agricultural industries b. Continuing regulation 2. Reforms to PTEs 3. National Competition Policy reforms 4. Future reforms 5. Improving Aus’s trade performance (Since 1980s, there has been a shift away from direct policies to improve Aus's trade performance) a. Direct i. Protection ii. Trade negotiations iii. Trade promotion and export assistance programs 10 b. Indirect i. General assistance programs ii. Exchange rate policy Future reforms In 2006, State and Federal Governments agreed to launch a new wave of microeconomic policies, now called the COAG Reform Agenda, which aim to: Remove impediments to raising productivity through regulatory reforms and competition reforms to Cwth-State arrangements o 2008: ‘seamless national economy’ = focus of reforms bc overlapping and inconsistent regulations impede productivity growth and the competiveness of the economy o E.g. OH&S, national occupational trade licensing, business reporting requirements and the national regulation of consumer credit Increase workforce participation and mobility Improve service delivery by govts Contribute to the broader goals of social inclusion, closing the gap on Indigenous disadvantage, environmental sustainability. The reforms will be monitored and assessed by the new COAG Reform Council (CRC). According to research undertaken by the Productivity Commission: The competition and regulatory reforms could improve GDP by up to 2% in the long run Reforms to increase workforce participation and productivity could improve GDP by 6% and 3% respectively within 25 years Trade Performance Trade Negotiations – direct Governments try to open up access to overseas markets through trade agreements. There are 3 dimensions of Australia's involvement in trade negotiations: 1. Bilateral trade negotiations Easiest to negotiate E.g. 1983 CERTA with NZ Implemented through the Market Development Task Force. Currently the focus of Aus trade policy, with separate negotiations occurring between Australia and China, Malaysia, Japan, etc. 2. Regional trade liberalisation 2008: ASEAN-Australia-NZ (AANZFTA) finalised – will cover cover 16% of Australia's trade in goods and service and is expected to boost the Aus economy by $US 19 billion over the decade after its implementation 1990s: Aus's regional trade negotiations focused on APEC – even though Aus is still striving for free trade by 2020, this is now considered unachievable, as the forum's target has made little progress in recent years. 3. Multilateral trade agreements e.g. WTO Aus actively uses the WTO to maximise its trade interests: o To pressure other countries to comply with the WTO agreement e.g. Aus has lodged several complaints with the Disputes Settlement Body of the WTO o To continue reducing trade barriers, esp in agriculture However, trade agreements are not the major policy to improve Australia's trade performance since Australia's major trade problem is more a lack of globally competitive exports. 11 Trade promotion and export assistance programs – direct While protection and direct assistance for producers has been substantially reduced during recent years, some export assistance programs still exist. Austrade provides financial assistance, information on potential export markets and marketing advice. o Main program: Export Market Development Grants (EMDG) scheme, which reimburses exporters for some of their costs in promoting their exports in new markets. This is effective, providing around $200 million in grants to over 3,000 Australian businesses to help them find export markets and enhance export promotion. Australia's membership of the WTO can impose constraints on the policies we use to assist our own industries. o E.g. Australia has been criticised for using quarantine arguments to protect local agricultural and food processing industries, which are necessary to prevent the entry of exotic diseases into Australia. General industry assistance programs – indirect have an indirect effect on our trading performance if they lead to the emergence of successful and competitive exporters. While Australia generally does not adopt strategic industry policies, the govt has implemented special assistance packages for some industry sectors E.g. motor vehicle industry The Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme (ACIS) is a 10 year, $4.2 billion program that will assist the automotive industry until 2015 as tariffs on imports are reduced It aims to encourage new investment and innovation through import duty credits (that make imported inputs cheaper) and tax breaks for research and development (e.g. environmentally friendly cars) Exchange rate policy - indirect In the past, governments have used exchange rates as an indirect instrument of trade policy. E.g. lower exchange rate value to improve competitiveness of their products (on domestic and world markets) While the Australian government may occasionally try to stabilise the dollar when it is volatile, it does not target any particular exchange rate. The ability of the government to affect our trading performance through exchange rate policy is limited since the dollar is floating and its value is determined in the foreign exchange market. EVALUATION OF RECENT MICRO REFORMS Now that sufficient time has passed for many of the micro reforms of 1980s and 90s to produce measurable outcomes, it is possible to review progress Economists generally feel that micro policy has been successful in delivering increased productivity, sustained higher rates of eco growth, low inflation and improved international competitiveness However, in many areas Aus has simply been catching up with rest of the world Despite effectiveness of many structural change policies, they have negatively effected some parts of community e.g. rural and regional areas The OECD’s most recent review of Aus economy in 2003 noted that further reforms to labour, product and financial markets and to social policies are still needed In an environment where eco reform is increasingly unpopular and inequality is rising, it may prove difficult for Aus to sustain further micro reform despite effectiveness in achieving past goals EFFECTS OF MICRO REFORM (for more details, see micro essay) Benefits 12 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Productivity growth Inflation Economic Growth Job opportunities Trading performance Costs 1. Structural unemployment Chapter 17: PRICES AND INCOMES AND LABOUR MARKET POLICIES INTRODUCTION Govts intervene in labour markets to achieve: Macro objectives such as low inflation and unemployment (since wages growth is a major influence on inflation) Micro objectives such as productivity growth and improved competitiveness for Aus businesses, and resolving disputes that arise in the workplace Objectives relating to the distribution of income and wealth, such as ensuring that fair minimum standards apply to all employees (since wages are the main source of income for most households) Historically, wage determination in Aus has not been left to the free operation fo the forces of s&d in the labour market. Rather, the govt has played an important role in influencing wage outcomes either directly or through independent industrial courts and tribunals. PRICES AND INCOMES POLICY Prices and incomes policy: is a macroeconomic policy that seeks to control the growth rate of prices and/or wages and expand employment by imposing restraints on wages growth The Hawke and Keating Govts of the 1990s were the last to use it in what was known as the Prices and Incomes Accord. Reasons for p&i policies (SSIIC) 1. Reducing inflation and unemployment a. A freely functioning labour market may allow a wages breakout, where large wage rises in 1 part of the economy trigger a rush of similar wage claims and an inflationary spiral (as in 1980s) possibly leading to higher unemployment 2. *International competitiveness a. Given that labour costs constitute around 60% of business costs, the competitiveness of the labour market makes an important contribution to Aus’s ability to compete on global markets 3. Reduced strike levels a. Without an effective mechanism to resolve disputes bw employers and employees, there may be a higher risk of frequent industrial action e.g. strikes b. Strikes impose a sig cost on the economy and can damage Aus’s international reputation (wharfies of 1980s) 4. Fairer distribution of income a. Without govt controls, wage earners with greater bargaining power are able to negotiate large wage increases than those with limited bargaining power worsens income inequality over time b. Businesses that operate in uncompetitive markets may increase prices and generate excessive inflation hurts low-income earners the most 5. Achieving specific policy objectives 13 a. E.g. the Keating govt used it to introduce compulsory superannuation as part of its objective of raising national savings *major argument in Aus in the 1980s Possible prices policies A prices policy: involves govt controls and guidelines concerning the size of price adjustments in the economy. Its main role is to control inflation. But, it has never been of great importance to Aus economy bc Cwth govt does not have constitutional power to control prices. Nevertheless, it is able to influence prices through actions of the Aus Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which: Conducts inquiries into pricing structures Recommends changes to regulatory policies for specific industries Initiates legal action when a company breaches trade practices laws Gives negative publicity to businesses where it finds there is excessive overcharging or ‘price gouging’ Can prohibit businesses from taking over or merging with rivals if that is likely to give them the ability to raise prices to consumers The ACCC’s main focus is to ensure that genuinely competitive forces are operating in each industry sector. It has adopted a ‘hands-off’ attitude towards industry regulation by progressively removing industries from its prices monitoring schedule. It is more likely to conduct investigations into pricing strategies in industries where some form of anti-competitive conduct is suspected These actions are part of the ACCC’s function as a competition watchdog that enforces the Trade Practices Act 1974. They are not seen as part of a co-ordinated prices policy designed to restrain inflation. Possible incomes policies The Cwth govt in Aus does not have the constitutional power to set income levels. It can, however, est the framework for determining the wage levels of employees. There are two options available: Centralised wage determination A system in which a govt or industrial tribunal determines wages and working conditions for all employees, regardless of which firm they work for. Those in favour of this system argue that a centralised decision is needed to protect the interests of those on low wages while restraining inappropriate and excessive wage increases, so as to minimise cost-push inflation and possibly increase employment. Under this system, there are 5 possible criteria that could be used for wage adjustments, such as: (PerCENT) 1. Needs-based principle: a. Wage adjustments are made according to needs main goal is to provide an adequate income that satisfies the basic needs of the average employee b. Could rely on automatic wage indexation/partial wage indexation – whereby nominal wages are adjusted according to changes in the CPI in order to maintain the purchasing power of workers’ incomes 2. Capacity to pay principle: a. Can relate to either the capacity of the firm to pay for a wage rise, or to the capacity of the economy to afford an across-the-board wage rise 14 b. This requires an increase in productivity or an increase in profit levels – to avoid passing on the cost of higher wages in the form of higher prices to consumers 3. Employment outcomes: a. Some economists argue that businesses will employ more workers if the level of minimum wages is set at a lower rate b. Necessary to balance the goal of moving individuals into paid work with the goal of ensuring that everyone who works a full time job is able to enjoy at least a basic standard of living 4. Sustaining wage growth at the level of major trading partners a. To avoid an erosion of Aus’s international competitiveness 5. Productivity increases: a. Wages increases would be based on overall productivity growth in the Aus economy Advantages: May help to achieve key eco outcomes e.g. lower inflation, reduced unemployment, and a fair distribution of income and lower strike levels Gives the govt an additional policy tool with which to achieve its eco objs E.g. govt may offer a trade-off bw a tax-cut and lower wage increases Disadvantages: Lower productivity growth – due to lack of incentives i.e. workers are guaranteed a uniform wage increase, regardless of whether/not they improve work practices Higher inflation – if the rate of inflation is high at the time when centralised wage fixation is introduced, it is more likely to lock in that higher inflation rate if wages are indexed to inflation rates under the incomes policy Decentralised wage determination A system in which wages and working conditions are determined through negotiations bw individual firms and their employees (or unions) The role of central govt tribunals/agencies is reduced. Instead, market forces of s&d + individual firm’s capacity to pay determine the size of wage increases. This ensures greater wage flexibility + wage levels can change bw diff firms and industries. Since early 1990s when Aus shifted to this type of system, the system has become more decentralised. Adv: *More efficient allocation of resources + structural change: it encourages labour resources to move to firms and industries that are more efficient and which have the capacity to pay more Employees have incentive to work more productively reduces inflationary pressures improves international competitiveness Wage flexibility labour market can adjust when the economy is affected by shocks, helping to keep unemployment at a lower rate e.g. wages fall rather than employment rate *Main adv Disadv: greater inequality Workers doing the same job in different industries or firms may be covered by very different pay and working conditions Wage increases tend to reflect the bargaining power of employees (influenced by the employees’ skills or the extent of union membership) rather than productivity improvements The degree of govt regulation (as opposed to the degree of centralisation) 15 Regulation: the collection of govt rules and institutions that influence the operation of markets and participants in markets The govt plays a role in est the framework for the industrial relations system. The govt may choose to: 1. Only impose minimum standards for all employees, covering issues such as OH&S and protection from discrimination, but not to regulate wage outcomes/other working conditions = deregulated 2. Control the process of enterprise bargaining and the content of agreements through industrial relations laws = regulated Although the Aus industrial relations system has been decentralised since 1994, most labour market economists argue that it is still subject to a sig amount of regulation – although the nature of that regulation has changed over time – from favouring employees in the early 1990s to favouring employers since 2006. Many also argue that wage determination needs to remain regulated to ensure fair outcomes. THE SHIFT FROM INCOMES TO LABOUR MARKET POLICIES Labour market policies: microeconomic policies that are aimed at influencing the operation and outcomes in the labour market, including industrial relations policies that regulate the process of wage determination as well as training, education and job-placement programs to assist the unemployed From a highly centralised system under which most employees had their wage determined by the govt’s prices and incomes policy in the 1980s, the 1990s saw a shift to a decentralised system where wages are mostly determined through workplace bargaining. The industrial relations system has gone through several transitions since the 1990s: The introduction of enterprise bargaining as an add-on to centralised wage increases in 1991 Changes to the industrial relations system in 1994 that resulted in most workers shifting on to collective enterprise agreements The 1996 Workplace Relations Act, which further decentralised the industrial relations system and created a new formal stream of individual contracts The WorkChoices legislation in 2006, which re-wrote the Workplace Relations Act, dismantling much of the award system with the aim of shifting workers onto individual contracts Changes in 2007 which re-instated a safety net test for workplace agreements Changes in 2008 that restricted the use of individual contracts within the formal industrial relations system Fair Work Australia established in 2009 Aus formally abandoned an incomes policy in 1996 after the election of the Howard govt, but by this time it had a very limited role in macro policy. Thus, the govt currently uses monetary policy as its major macro policy tool to prevent excessive wage rises. RBA perceives annual wages growth (reflected in Wage Price Index) in excess of 4.5% as a threat to its target of keeping inflation in the 2-3% target range. Therefore, the RBA has warned, if wage growth rises above 4.5% its policy response is likely to include raising interest rates as a means to slow down eco growth and contain inflationary pressures. THE CURRENT INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS FRAMEWORK The Rudd Govt’s ‘Fair Work Act’ will have 9 main elements: (CAANN UU FicS it?) 1. National system: labor will retain and improve workcoice’s uniform national IR system 2. AWAs: No new AWAs may be entered into, although existing AWAs will be permitted to run their course and some workers may be employed under ‘individual transitional employment agreements’ 16 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. until the end of 2009. Until then, all new ITEAs and collective agreements will be subject to a nodisadvantage test. CAs: the main form of bargaining will be through collective enterprise agreements. Safety net: Labor’s safety net will have 2 parts: National employment standards + awards NES: all employees will be protected by 10 legislative NES covering e.g. standard work hrs, parental leave, annual leave Awards: the award system will be modernised and simplified. It will apply only to employees earning less than $100,000/yr. Awards may contain only a further 10 minimum employment standards e.g. flexibility clause Unfair dismissal: labor will restore the unfair dismissal laws with streamlined procedures and special arrangements for businesses with fewer than 15 employees. Union power: Labor will retain many of Workchoice’s measures to limit union power e.g. ban on secondary boycotts Fair Work Australia: will be the new ‘one-stop shop’ for IR issues; it will work in concert with Fair Work Ombudsman (which will ensure compliance with FWA). CHANGING WORK PRACTICES In practical terms, the impacts of the shift towards bargaining have been felt more strongly in changing work hrs. E.g. - Employees working longer shifts but having more days off - Employers having greater say in organising work patterns of employees Other changes brought about through enterprise agreements relate to work arrangements and pay structures E.g. - performance-based pay - more flexible job descriptions - ‘cashing out’ sick leave 17