Download WG3 LTSA Outcomes Presentation

Road Safety Outcomes
Management
Martin Small
LTSA Manager Safety Strategy
4 October 2001
Outline
A Pathfinder checklist
Building Blocks

Safety Directions

Crash Analysis System
Managing Performance
Road Safety Strategy 2010
A Pathfinder Checklist
Define and measure ‘mission critical’
outcomes

National Road Safety Plan 1991, and 1995

Rail Safety – being developed
Define logic linking outcomes to outputs

Dose response relationships for key policy and resource
interventions
Assess impact of discretionary interventions

2010 Target Setting Model
A Pathfinder Checklist (cont)
Evaluate cost-effectiveness of
interventions

Ex ante evaluation of new Rules

Ex post evaluation of higher level projects

Underpinned by Value of Statistical Life
Define prioritisation systems to maximise
outcomes from intervention resource

Top down resource allocation model

Bottom up prioritisation through Risk Targeted Patrol Plan
A Pathfinder Checklist (cont)
Benchmark the performance of business
units/nations in achieving outcomes



Development of Control Charts
International peer review of performance management
frameworks
Monitoring and comparing performance against national
outcome targets
Focus strategic and annual plans on
improving ‘mission critical’ outcomes
Redesign planning and operational
systems to achieve enhanced outcomes
Building Blocks
Crash Analysis System

Combining crash, road, environment, vehicle and user data

Integrated spatial analysis and accident investigation tools
Safety Directions Development Programme

Started 1996

Driven from “safety at reasonable cost” mandate

Focussing on Safety Funding Cycle
Safety funding cycle
Budget
setting
Target
setting
Data
sources
Performance
monitoring
Budget
allocation
Safety
outcome
Budgeting to achieve a target
‘Funding
gap’
At current
efficiency
Target
outcome
The safety outcome
depends on the
resources we put in.
Expected
outcome
With
improved
efficiency
If resources are
insufficient we must
either (1) make up
the ‘funding gap’ or
(2) improve
efficiency.
Current
resource
Resource
required to
achieve target
Safety
resources
Cumulative traffic volume or social
cost (%)
Targeting the safety budget
100%
90%
20% of roads account for 79% of traffic
and 87% of social cost of crashes
80%
70%
10% of roads account for 56% of traffic
and 74% of social cost of crashes
60%
50%
40%
Social cost of crashes
Traffic volume
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Cumulative road length (%)
80%
100%
Spatial units for resource
allocation modelling
Points suit interventions that act at discrete locations,
eg intersection treatments.
Segments suit interventions that act over stretches
of road, eg audible edge markings.
Areas suit interventions that act over entire
parts of the network, eg enforcement.
Performance monitoring tools
Control charts allow us to avoid false alarms and to
direct our effort where it is really needed.
Control charts can be devised for specific interventions
or specific areas of the country; and may be expressed
in terms of crashes, fatalities or social cost.
Cumulative Control Chart
Fatalities 2001: Max 420
Upper
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
420
374
327
Actual
Lowe
r
Expected
0
20
40
Week
60
A predictive model
Traffic
growth etc.
Current
outcome
Baseline
outcome
Amount of
intervention
Doseresponse
Parameters
20
interventions
Predicted
outcome
Aggregated
results
Managing Performance




Critical risk behaviours
Strategic enforcement
Advertising support
Performance management framework
The effect of blood alcohol on
relative risk of a fatal crash
20
Relative risk of fatal crash
18
L egal limit
for age 16 to 19
16
Legal limit
for age over
20
14
12
10
8
6
Age 16 to 19
Age over 20
4
2
0
0
40
80
Blood alcohol level (mg/100mL)
120
The effect of speed
on crash risk
Relative risk (100 km/h = 1.0)
3.0
2.5
All injury crashes
Fatal and serious crashes
Fatal crashes
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
80
90
100
110
Mean speed (km/h)
120
130
Traffic enforcement hours
37%
Alcohol, speed and
restraints
Alcohol, speed and
restraints
Other
55%
45%
Other
63%
1994/95 1.78M hours
1998/99 1.99M hours
Strategic hours are now a bigger slice of a bigger pie
Alcohol, speed and seatbelt changes, 1995 to 2000
(fatal and serious injury crashes)
785
631
446
425
14%
8%
alcohol crashes
speed crashes
non-use of seatbelts
Safety belts: enforcement levels and wearing rates
40000
20000
enforcement: number of offence notices issued each year
0
60%
percentage of rear seat adults NOT wearing seatbelts
40%
percentage of front seat adults NOT wearing seatbelts
20%
Mar-01
Sep-00
Mar-00
Sep-99
Mar-99
Sep-98
Mar-98
Sep-97
Mar-97
Sep-96
Mar-96
0%
Alcohol CBT checks and Offence Notices
30000
Alcohol offence notices issued each year
20000
10000
CBT stops x 100
0
Drink-driving crashes
2000
All reported injury and fatal
crashes involving alcohol
1000
Jun-01
Dec-00
Jun-00
Dec-99
Jun-99
Dec-98
Jun-98
Dec-97
Jun-97
Dec-96
Jun-96
0
Speeding Infringements Issued
800,000
Total
600,000
400,000
Camera
200,000
Other
0
30%
Vehicles exceeding 110 km/h
25%
20%
15%
10%
Percentage exceeding 110 km/h
Performance monitoring tools
Advertising is not desired for itself but
for its effect.
The ‘adstock’ model is a tool to
monitor advertising recall.
Targets
Implementation
Design and
operation of
the network
Interventions
The road
environment
Standards
and Rules
Conditions
of entry
and exit
The
vehicle
The road
user
Compliance Standards
and Rules
Compliance
Standards
and Rules
Education
Education
Education
Enforcement
Enforcement
Enforcement
Performance
assessment
Performance
assessment
Performance
assessment
Compliance
Final outcomes consist of
fatalities and serious injuries.
They are what we seek to
avoid and are the main
components of social cost.
Social cost is the aggregate
measure of all costs that crashes
inflict on the community. It includes
not just material losses but pain and
suffering.
Social cost and final outcomes
(but not intermediate outcomes
and outputs) can be broken down
by road user group and local
government region.
Intermediate outcomes are not
desired for themselves but for what
they entail—better final outcomes.
We could have separate targets for
different road user groups
.
Outputs represent physical
deliverables, for instance the
number of police patrols and
the amount of advertising
delivered. Alternatively they
could correspond to milestones
showing that a specified task
has been complet ed.
We could develop individual
targets for New Zealand’s
local government regions
each made up of a number of
local authorities.