Download Nourou Food system resilience to drought

Food system resilience: Exploring Nigerien agricultural households
livelihoods resilience to droughts
By Nourou Macki TALL
RSK4206 “Building resilience and adaptive Governance”
Maastricht University Graduate school of Governance
April, 2013
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ABSTRACT
Figure on how post disaster like drought processes can affect food system and its principal
policy objective food security is gaining importance with the emergence of the Resilience
concept. Food system is a complex social ecological system and resilience is not directly
measurable. A diachronic analysis of the food insecurity data and coping strategy index in
Niger provide insights on the variability of the situation before, during and after droughts.
With recurrent droughts combined with poverty, coping strategies are more and more adaptive
strategies. A good year of production following a drought doesn’t allow household to bounce
back to their equilibrium.
Key words: food system, food security, coping strategy, resilience
1. Introduction
Food is central to life, and food systems are intertwined with culture, politics, societies,
economies, and ecosystems. Food security is a major concern of the world. Despite all the
efforts made, one billion people remain food insecure.
Rural people in the Sahelian part of Africa rely mainly on crop–livestock activities and
natural resources for their livelihood and food security, and to provide food for urban
populations.
Approximately 65 percent of the workforce in the Sahel, among which more than half are
women, are working in the agricultural sector and are thus dependent on climatic and
environmental factors.
Crises characterizing the sub-region are exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Over
the past 50 years, the sub-region has experienced changes in rainfall pattern, which resulted in
severe droughts in the Sahel, but also especially from 2005, causing destructive flooding
weakening livelihood based on agriculture.
In Niger, agriculture and livestock are the predominant economic activities in Niger. More of
80% of the population rely on crop and livestock activities for their livelihoods and food
security. The last decade has been marked by three years of major losses caused by drought
2004/2005, 2009/2010 and 2011/2012. These recurrent shocks affect household resilience.
Broadly speaking, resilience measures the ability of a system to withstand shocks and stresses
and to adapt and to persist in an uncertain world. The development of a resilience based
approach to food insecurity looks very promising because it complements early warning
systems and vulnerability based approaches by focusing on the current status of health of the
food system (Ciani, 2012).
We will analyze here how nigerien agricultural household are adapting to drought through the
diachronic analysis of the evolution of the food insecurity level and the coping strategy index
from 2007 to 2011.
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2. Food system, climate change and resilience
2.1 Food system as a complex Social Ecological System
A Social Ecological System (SES) is defined as a system that includes societal (human) and
ecological (biophysical) subsystems in mutual interaction (Gallopın1991, 2006), and thus the
concept reflects the idea that human action and ecological structures are closely linked and
dependent on each other, thus sharp separation of social and natural systems is arbitrary
(Berkes et al. 2003).
Figure 1: Social ecological system
Source: Maastricht University RSK 4206 course (adopted from Gallopin 1994)
It’s obvious to acknowledge food systems as social ecological system. In fact, Food systems
comprise a set of activities and outcomes ranging from production to consumption, through
distribution and processing which involve both human and environmental dimensions
(Ericksen, 2008; Alinovi et al, 2009).
The ecological functions of Agriculture1 gain importance on the policy agenda as
environmental concerns emerge. It contributes to biodiversity maintenance, water cycle
enhancement, soil fertility and carbon sequestration but also Greenhouse Gaz (GHG)
emissions etc.
The social functions of Agriculture are related to income generating revenues, food security,
natural resource management etc.
1
Agriculture, livestock, fisheries, forestry…
3
All encompass social, economic, political, and environmental processes and dimensions. To
analyze the interactions between global environmental change and food systems, as well as
the tradeoffs among food security and environmental goals, a food system can be more
broadly conceived as including the determinants (or drivers) and outcomes of these activities.
The determinants comprise the interactions between and within biogeophysical and human
environments that determine how food system activities are performed. These activities lead
to a number of outcomes, some of which contribute to food security and others that relate to
the environment and other societal concerns. These outcomes are also affected directly by the
determinants.
Food system play a pivotal role in the food security of a given group of people and is the
principal policy of a food system (Ericksen, 2008). FAO defines food security as “all people,
at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet
their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 1996).
The multidimensionality of the food system concept derives from the fact that, whatever the
scale of analysis, a food system always comprises at least two components: the resource base
that ensures the food supply, and the socio-economic component that depends on this resource
base (L. Alinovi et al, 2009).
The definition of a food system entails many dimensions – economic, social, institutional,
technological and cultural – and scales, being global, national or local depending on the
purpose of the analysis.
Figure 2: social ecological model applied to food system
T
External environment
(international treaties, policies,
institutions, global environment
change...)
National (public policies and
institutions: economic,
environmental, social and
technological issues)
Regional (decentralized
governmental institutions,
organizations networks, ...)
Community (local
institutions,
community based
organizations,(
Organizations
localmarkets...)
organizations
such as farmer`s
organization,
natural resource
Individual/ho
exploitatants,
local
useholds ...)
enterprises,
(Livelihoods
assets):
human,
natural,
social,
physical and
financial
Livelihood
strategies
Source by Nourou, Sasha et Lynn, RSK 4206 course, Maastricht University, 2013
The new model proposed includes spatial scale and time. The time scale allow to understand
disaster before, during and after it occurs.
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This social ecological model is made up of many different parts that interact with multiple
bands of influence. In this model, no separation has been made between the human subsystem
and the ecological subsystem to show their co-evolution and the necessity of a joint analyze.
At the core of the model is the individual/household level, surrounded by five bands of
influence representing the organizational, community, regional, national and international
levels.
Individuals/households are first responsible to cope with, adapt to and recover from disaster
by using their livelihoods assets and strategies notably ecosystem services.
Organizations and communities can support and promote best DRR/M (disaster risk
reduction/management) practices. Communities based disaster risk management can be
implemented but also organizations around a natural resource creating some kind of value
chain.
Regional level plays a role in the development process, in preparation, mitigation as well as in
managing effective response and recovery.
At the national level, measures are taken in order to enhance Legal, policy and institutional
systems and regulatory frameworks for risk management and food security policies.
At the international level, framework and global platform are put in place.
2.2 Disasters related climate change
Rural people in the Sahelian2 part of Africa rely mainly on crop–livestock activities and
natural resources for their livelihood and food security, and to provide food for urban
populations.
Agricultural production – including access to food – in many African countries and regions
will be severely affected by climate change. This is particularly true for the Sahel region. The
area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly
along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further
adversely affect food security, vulnerability to shocks and exacerbate malnutrition. In some
countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture, which is important for the poorest farmers, could
be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020. Furthermore, there is evidence that freshwater
resources, on which the viability of agriculture depends, are vulnerable and will be strongly
impacted by climate change (Lim Li Ching, 2011)
Approximately 65 percent of the workforce in the Sahel, among which more than half are
women, are working in the agricultural sector and are thus dependent on climatic and
environmental factors.
Crises characterizing the sub-region are exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Over
the past 50 years, the sub-region has experienced changes in rainfall pattern, which resulted in
severe droughts in the Sahel, but also especially from 2005, causing destructive flooding
weakening livelihood based on agriculture.
2
This zone is defined as the southern border of the Sahara desert, characterized by low and unreliable annual
rainfall, usually between 200 and 600 mm/year, along a positive gradient southward and occurring mainly
between June and October, defining two main climatic zones, arid and semi-arid.
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Consequence of climate change, natural disasters have increased in frequency and intensity,
especially in the case of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. The impact of
natural disasters is more severe on the poorest and vulnerable people, especially those whose
livelihoods depend on agriculture. These are indeed increasingly confronted with recurrent
climate risks that cause production shortfalls, livestock losses and reduced availability of fish
stocks and forests. (FAO, 2011).
Concern over the current and potentially future harmful consequences of global
environmental change for food systems is motivated by four narratives: i) the persistence of
chronic food insecurity in parts of the world, ii) the increasing impact of natural hazards and
shocks on food, income, and environmental security, iii) the ecosystem services enabling food
production systems are being eroded through environmental trends such as changes in nutrient
cycles, changes in hydrological cycles, changes in vegetation cover and composition, and
pollution and iv) the inadequacy to substitute for ecosystem services (adapted from Ericksen,
2008).
Fig. 3. Food system vulnerability as a function of the environmental change hazard, exposure,
and adaptive capacity.
Source: adapted from Ericksen, 2008
2.3 The concept of resilience, panarchy and adaptive cycle and its relation to food
insecurity
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Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing
change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks
(www.resalliance.org). Resilience has thus three defining characteristics:



The amount of change the system can undergo and still retain the same controls on
function and structure
The degree to which the system is capable of self-organization
The ability to build and increase the capacity for learning and adaptation
For the food system, resilience is the ability to prevent disasters and crises or to anticipate,
absorb, accommodate or recover and adapt from shocks impacting nutrition, agriculture, food
security and safety and specific related public health risks in a timely, efficient and
sustainable manner (FAO, 2012).
The model of the adaptive cycle was derived from the comparative study of the dynamics of
ecosystems. It focuses attention upon processes of destruction and reorganization (backloop),
which are often neglected in favor of growth and conservation (foreloop). Including these
processes provides a more complete view of system dynamics that links together system
organization, resilience, and dynamics (www.resalliance.org).
The “Panarchy” framework proposed by Gunderson and Holling (2002) holds that all
ecosystems cycle through periods of resource accumulation and collapse based on three key
characteristics: the resilience of the ecosystem, the connectedness of individuals in the
ecosystem, and the potential for change in the ecosystem. (Fraser, 2003).
Source: www.resalliance.org
Many of the characteristics of the agro-ecosystem in the Sahel in the decades leading up and
adapting to the drought conform to the trajectory described by adaptive cycle and panarchy.
Crop–livestock production systems in the Sahel have been adapting their practices and way of
life for decades to various risks: climatic variability, economic risks and livestock diseases (A.
Ickowicz et al, 2003). Such systems, in arid and semi-arid areas, can be composed of:
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


livestock only grazing systems;
rainfed mixed crop-livestock systems;
rainfed and irrigated mixed crop-livestock systems.
One practical example to analyze adaptive cycles and resilience to drought is the livestock
sector. Dynamics of cattle population is arid and semi arid tropical Africa are highly
influenced by droughts, which can create dramatic drops in herds size as well as disturbances
in sex and age structures. Regarding the Sahel context, the droughts of 1972-1973 and 19831984 major droughts are assumed to have decreased the cattle stock and strongly influenced
the pastoral and agro-pastoral system (Lesnoff at al, 2012). We can assess the resilience of the
herders with livestock diversity. Raising just one specie is more risky in face of droughts. The
adaptation conducted herders to diversify their herd with small ruminants and cattle. One
other issue is the importance of social network after a post disaster process to rebuild
capacities. An example is the practice of habbanae is Niger. When a breeder facing drought
lost his cattle, the custom of the Habbanae wants members of its community to lend for three
years a pregnant cow. This tradition is not limited to a contract allowing the person to get out
of a bad situation, it consolidates the community by strengthening the links between its
members.
Thresholds define qualitative or quantitative points or zones that imply a possible shift
or transition of the state of a system (i.e. a critical value that should not be crossed). Tipping
points are the limits beyond which a system actually changes its function and organization
(Glossary: Embrace project). A breakpoint between two regimes of a system (Walker et al,
2004) for herders is the minimum herd remaining after a disaster in quantity, sex and age
(number of livestock tropical unit3) which is very determinant for their resilience in terms of
probability to recover and the recovery time. After drought, the paths are very different. If
some herders continue the same activity, many of them become shepherds for agriculturalists,
some start practicing agriculture and some are simply out of the system (Bernard, 2012).
Regarding the reorganization phases, drought push States to put in place institutions working
in the early warning side in order to “watch to safeguard” and in the response side for an
effective and efficient response to crises.
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Resilience of livelihoods to drought in post disaster situation: Niger case
3.1 Livelihood profiles in Niger
Climatic variations are pushing the republic Niger towards a chronic vulnerability to food and
nutritional insecurity associated with recurrent pastoral deficits
Agriculture and livestock are the predominant economic activities in Niger. More of 80% of
the population rely on crop and livestock activities for their livelihoods and food security.
However, these activities are highly dependent on the spatial and temporal variability of
rainfall, and pests. Since 1966, the country has experienced nine (9) years of deficit of
production variable in magnitude averaging a production deficit every five years. The last
decade has been marked by three years of major losses caused by drought 2004/2005 and
2009/2010 and 2011/2012. These recurrent shocks affect household resilience. With a
3
Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) provides a convenient method for quantifying a wide range of different
livestock types and sizes in a standardized manner. one Tropical Livestock Unit is one cattle with a body weight
of 250 kg.
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population growth rate of 3.3% (a fertility rate of more than 7 children per woman), Niger
doubles its population every 23 years (and could reach 56 million in 2050). In the current state
of technology, this population growth exerts significant pressure on cultivated and cultivable
land and creates a mismatch between needs and grain production.
Vulnerable populations in Niger, especially those living in pastoral and agropastoral areas use
to have had a lean season (May / June to September) particularly difficult because of lack of
agricultural production, decrease of livestock productivity and a significant increase in prices
foodstuffs. Evaluation surveys conducted by WFP (World Food Programme) indicate a high
debt ratio, which reflects the complexity of the situation of vulnerable households.
Livestock plays an important role both as a livelihood mean and as a survival strategy. Agropastoralists include herding as a complementary and integrated activity through the possession
of a limited number of small ruminants because of limited fodder availability. Household’s
small animal flocks is also a way of savings which is readily mobilized in case of necessity
particularly during the lean period and in years of severe shortfall of production.
The livelihoods profiles depend on the system and the class of household economic analysis.
Table 1: From south to north – from predominantly agricultural livelihoods to more
pastoral livelihoods
Source: Save the Children UK, 2009
These profiles reveal that people’s livelihoods are constantly and rapidly changing. The
profiles are different if you are considering agricultural, agro-pastoralist and pastoralist.
3.2 Diachronic analysis of Nigerien agricultural household resilience to drought
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50 percent of Niger's population is chronically food insecure, 22 percent of the population
suffering from chronic food insecurity (worlbank, 2008). If a drought occurs, the situation is
exacerbated.
The determination of food-insecure populations is based on a multivariate statistical analysis
of variables reflecting the three dimensions of food security namely, availability, accessibility
and utilization (Niger early warning system and national institute of statistics, 2007-2011).
Graphic 1 : Evolution of food insecurity prevalence at the national level (2006-2011)
Drought
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Food secure
At risk
Moderate
Acute
Source: Early warning system surveys from 2006 to 2011
Coping strategies are the bundle of poor people’s response to declining food availability and
entitlements in abnormal seasons or years (Davies, 2009).The analysis of different survival
strategies developed by households allows us to understand the adaptive capacity of
households to food problems and reflect more the food security at the moment. Two methods
can be used to calculate coping strategy index (CSI) also called survival strategy index.
The CSI method that uses a weighted composite indicator. The strategies used in the
calculation are among others the reduction of the daily ration, reducing the number of daily
meals, spending a whole day without eating, the resort to begging and unusual consumption
of non-formal food. The CSI therefore summarizes the exposure of households to shocks. The
higher it is, the lower the level of resilience of the household is. This indicator reflects food
insecurity at some point.
The coping strategies of households can also be analyzed by the method of Maxwell which
classifies the strategies into four categories: strategies of type 1, type 2, type 3 and type 4.




Strategies of type 1: Consumption of less preferred food, reduction of the daily ration
Strategies of type 2: borrowing food from relatives, friends and neighbors, asking food
for the children, decrease of the daily ration for adults in favor of children and
reducing the number of meals per day
Strategies of type 3: seed consumption
Strategies of type 4: use of non-conventional food consumption, resort to begging and
spending an entire day without eating.
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For the analysis, the data from the first method was used.
Graphic 2: Evolution of the coping strategy index
Source: Niger early warning system 2007-2011 and World Food Programme, 2012
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Discussion
The diachronic analysis of the state of the population in food insecurity in Niger from 2007 to
2011 shows that globally an average of 38.3% of the population is food insecure in which
13.6% in an acute manner. The occurrence of a drought had exacerbated the situation. In
2010, following the drought, 48.6% of the population were food insecure. In 2011, thanks to a
good rainy season and good production, the proportion of the population in food insecurity
falls at a lower level 32.8%. The drought stressor is declining population resilience even if in
normal season the rate of vulnerable population remains high (above normal). The effect of a
drought in the population is perceived more in year n+1 because of the erosion of the adaptive
capacity before and during the lean season. It is more visible for the poor and very poor group
according to the household economic approach classification.
The evolution of the coping strategy index (CSI) shows drought as a stressor of using
adaptation strategies immediately when the drought occurs. In fact, household are in the
forefront of their food security and will use immediate coping strategy measures. Coping is
defined as a short term response to an immediate and unusual decline in access in food thus
adapting means a permanent change in the mix of ways in which food is acquired, irrespective
of the year in question (Davies, 2009). The figure here shows that every year is marked by a
high CSI. This shows a low resilience and highly sensitive livelihood systems. The use of
coping strategies only indicate an anticipated hungry-season and not deviation in the norm.
Therefore, household resilience to food insecurity, defined as a household’s ability to
maintain a certain level of well-being (food security) in the face of risks, depends on the
options available to that household to make a living and on its ability to handle risks. It refers
therefore to ex-ante actions aimed at reducing or mitigating risks, and ex-post actions to cope
with those risks. (Alinovi et al, 2009).
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Specific social, economic, institutional, and ecological components of the system, i.e., the
actors and their resources, as well as their relationship to one another within the system gives
to the system its adaptive capacity.
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Conclusion
To figure on how post disaster processes can affect food systems to the increasing trends of
global environmental change is a not a straightforward task due to the complexity of food
system and its principal policy objective food security.
The recurrent high level of population food insecure in Niger highlights the necessity to
analyze deeply the three pillar of food security availability, access and utilization.
Furthermore, if not fully understood, coping strategies can justify, and indeed, legitimate,
short term response, even though this is often inappropriate (Davies, 2009).
For food security, the resilience of a given household at a given point in time, depends
primarily on the options available to that household to make a living, such as its access to
assets, income-generating activities, public services and social safety nets. These options
represent a precondition for the household response mechanisms (its ability to handle risk) to
a given risk (Alinovi et al, 2009).
When a drought occurs, it takes time for vulnerable households to bounce back to their fragile
equilibrium. If actions and policies are not taken tackling the immediate and long term needs,
tipping points will be reached for most poor and very poor households especially for the
herders.
Resilience is not observable. A resilience index should be developed at household level and in
function of the livelihoods areas and monitored regularly to help support actions and policies
for vulnerable groups.
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Appendix 1 : Niger livelihoods profile
Source; Fewsnet, 2011
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