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Chapter 7 Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.1 μ1 ± 2 σ x1 μ1 2 b. μ2 ± 2 σ x2 μ2 ± 2 c. μ x1 x2 = μ1 − μ2 = 150 − 150 = 0 σ x1 x2 7.2 σ12 n1 n1 σ 22 n2 σ12 150 ± 2 σ2 900 150 ± 6 (144, 156) 100 150 ± 2 n2 1600 150 ± 8 (142, 158) 100 900 1600 2500 5 100 100 100 σ 22 900 1600 0 ± 10 (−10, 10) 100 100 d. (μ1 − μ2) ± 2 e. The variability of the difference between the sample means is greater than the variability of the individual sample means. a. μ x1 = μ1 = 12 σ x1 b. μ x2 = μ2 = 10 σ x2 c. μ x1 x2 = μ1 − μ2 = 12 − 10 = 2 σ x1 x2 7.3 σ1 a. σ12 n1 n1 σ 22 n2 n2 (150 − 150) ± 2 42 32 64 64 σ1 n1 4 = .5 64 3 = .375 64 σ2 n2 25 = .625 64 d. Since n1 ≥ 30 and n2 ≥ 30, the sampling distribution of x1 x2 is approximately normal by the Central Limit Theorem. a. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) z.025 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 (5,275 − 5,240) ± 1.96 1502 2002 400 400 35 ± 24.5 (10.5, 59.5) We are 95% confident that the difference between the population means is between 10.5 and 59.5. 376 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses b. The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) ( μ1 μ 2 ) σ12 n1 σ 22 (5275 5240) 0 150 2 200 2 400 400 n2 377 2.8 The p-value of the test is P(z ≤ −2.8) + P(z ≥ 2.8) = 2P(z ≥ 2.8) = 2(.5 − .4974) = 2(.0026) = .0052 Since the p-value is so small, there is evidence to reject H0. There is evidence to indicate the two population means are different for α > .0052. c. The p-value would be half of the p-value in part b. The p-value = P(z ≥ 2.8) = .5 − .4974 = .0026. Since the p-value is so small, there is evidence to reject H0. There is evidence to indicate the mean for population 1 is larger than the mean for population 2 for α > .0026. d. The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) ( μ1 μ2 ) σ12 n1 σ 22 (5275 5240) 25 n2 150 2 2002 400 400 .8 The p-value of the test is P(z ≤ −.8) + P(z ≥ .8) = 2P(z ≥ .8) = 2(.5 − .2881) = 2(.2119) = .4238 Since the p-value is so large, there is no evidence to reject H0. There is no evidence to indicate that the difference in the 2 population means is different from 25 for α ≤ .10. e. 7.4 We must assume that we have two independent random samples. Assumptions about the two populations: 1. 2. Both sampled populations have relative frequency distributions that are approximately normal. The population variances are equal. Assumptions about the two samples: The samples are randomly and independently selected from the population. 7.5 7.6 a. No. Both populations must be normal. b. No. Both populations variances must be equal. c. No. Both populations must be normal. d. Yes. e. No. Both populations must be normal. a. sp2 = (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (25 1)120 (25 1)100 5280 = 110 25 25 2 48 n1 n2 2 b. sp2 = (20 1)12 (10 1)20 408 = 14.5714 20 10 2 28 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 378 Chapter 7 c. sp2 = (6 1).15 (10 1).2 2.55 = .1821 6 10 2 14 d. sp2 = (16 1)3000 (17 1)2500 85,000 = 2741.9355 16 17 2 31 e. sp2 falls near the variance with the larger sample size. 7.7 Some preliminary calculations are: x1 x 1 n1 11.8 2.36 5 s12 x12 x 2 1 n1 1 n1 x (11.8) 2 5 = .733 5 1 30.78 2 x2 x2 n2 14.4 3.6 4 s22 x 2 2 2 n2 1 n2 (14.4)2 4 = .42 4 1 53.1 (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (5 1).773 + (4 1).42 4.192 = = = .5989 n1 n2 2 5+42 7 a. sp2 b. H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 < 0 The test statistic is t = ( x1 x2 ) D0 1 1 sp2 n1 n2 (2.36 3.6) 0 1 .5989 5 1 4 1.24 2.39 .5191 The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 5 + 4 − 2 = 7. From Table V, Appendix B, t.10 = 1.415. The rejection region is t < −1.415. Since the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = −2.39 < −1.415), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that μ2 > μ1 at α = .10. c. A small sample confidence interval is needed because n1 = 5 < 30 and n2 = 4 < 30. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .05. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 5 + 4 − 2 = 7, t.05 = 1.895. The 90% confidence interval for (μ1 − μ2) is: 1 1 1 ( x1 x2 ) t.05 sp2 (2.36 − 3.6) ± 1.895 .5989 5 n1 n2 1 4 −1.24 ± .98 (−2.22, −0.26) d. The confidence interval in part c provides more information about (μ1 − μ2) than the test of hypothesis in part b. The test in part b only tells us that μ2 is greater than μ1. However, the confidence interval estimates what the difference is between μ1 and μ2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.8 σ12 σ 22 σ x1 x2 b. The sampling distribution of x1 x2 is approximately normal by the Central Limit Theorem since n1 ≥ 30 and n2 ≥ 30. n2 9 16 .25 = .5 100 100 a. n1 379 μ x1 x2 = μ1 − μ2 = 10 c. x1 − x2 = 15.5 − 26.6 = −11.1 Yes, it appears that x1 x2 = −11.1 contradicts the null hypothesis H0: μ1 − μ2 = 10. d. The rejection region requires α/2 = .025 = .05/2 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. e. H0: μ1 − μ2 = 10 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 10 The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) 10 σ12 n1 σ 22 (15.5 26.6) 10 = −42.2 .5 n2 The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. (Refer to part d.) Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −42.2 < −1.96), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the difference in the population means is not equal to 10 at α = .05. f. The form of the confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) zα / 2 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The confidence interval is: 9 16 (15.5 − 26.6) ± 1.96 −11.1 ± .98 (−12.08, −10.12) 100 100 We are 95% confident that the difference in the two means is between −12.08 and −10.12. g. The confidence interval gives more information. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 380 7.9 Chapter 7 a. The p-value = .1150. Since the p-value is not small, there is no evidence to reject H0 for α ≤ .10. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the two population means differ for α ≤ .10. b. If the alternative hypothesis had been one-tailed, the p-value would be half of the value for the twotailed test. Here, p-value = .1150/2 = .0575. There is no evidence to reject H0 for α = .05. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean for population 1 is less than the mean for population 2 at α = .05. There is evidence to reject H0 for α > .0575. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean for population 1 is less than the mean for population 2 at α > .0575. 7.10 Some preliminary calculations: x1 s12 x1 x 1 n1 x 2 1 x 654 15 x n1 1 2 n2 2 6542 15 419.6 = 29.3167 15 1 14 1 n1 28934 858 = 53.625 16 x 2 s22 sp2 a. x22 2 n2 1 n2 8582 16 439.75 = 29.3167 16 1 15 46450 (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (15 1)29.9714 (16 1)29.3167 859.3501 = 29.6328 n1 n2 2 15 16 2 29 H0: μ2 − μ1 = 10 Ha: μ2 − μ1 > 10 The test statistic is t = ( x1 x2 ) D0 1 1 sp2 n1 n2 (53.625 43.6) 10 1 1 29.6328 15 16 .025 = .013 1.9564 The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 15 + 16 − 2 = 29. From Table V, Appendix B, t.01 = 2.462. The rejection region is t > 2.462. Since the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = .013 2.462), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to conclude μ2 − μ1 > 10 at α = .01. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses b. 381 For confidence coefficient .98, α = .02 and α/2 = .01. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 15 + 16 − 2 = 29, t.01 = 2.462. The 98% confidence interval for (μ2 − μ1) is: 1 1 1 1 ( x1 x2 ) tα / 2 sp2 (53.625 − 43.6) ± 2.462 29.6328 15 16 n1 n2 10.025 ± 4.817 (5.208, 14.842) We are 98% confident that the difference between the mean of population 2 and the mean of population 1 is between 5.208 and 14.842. 7.11 a. s 2p = (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (17 -1)3.42 (12 1)4.82 = 16.237 = 17 12 2 n1 n2 2 H0: (μ1 − μ2) = 0 Ha: (μ1 − μ2) ≠ 0 The test statistic is t = ( x1 x2 ) 0 sp2 1 1 n n 1 2 = (5.4 7.9) 0 1 1 16.237 + 17 12 = 1.646 Since no α was given, we will use α = .05. The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 17 + 12 – 2 = 27. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.052. The rejection region is t < −2.052 or t > 2.052. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = −1.646 −2.052), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate μ1 − μ2 is different from 0 at α = .05. b. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 17 + 12 − 2 = 27, t.025 = 2.052. The confidence interval is: 1 1 ( x1 x2 ) t.025 sp2 where t has 27 df n1 n2 1 1 (5.4 − 7.9) − 2.052 16.237 −2.50 ± 3.12 (−5.62, 0.62) 17 12 7.12 Let μ1 = the mean test score of students on the SAT reading test in classrooms that used educational software and μ 2 = the mean test score of students on SAT reading test in classrooms that did not use the technology a. The parameter of interest is μ1 – μ2. b. The null and alternative hypotheses for the test are: H0: μ1 – μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 – μ2 > 0 c. Since the p-value of the test is so large (p = 0.62), we would not reject H0 for any reasonable value of α. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean test score of the students on the SAT reading test was significantly higher in classrooms using reading software products than in classrooms that did not use educational software. This agrees with the conclusion of the DOE. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 382 7.13 Chapter 7 a. Let μ1 = mean number of items recalled by those in the video only group and μ2 = mean number of items recalled by those in the audio and video group. To determine if the mean number of items recalled by the two groups is the same, we test: Ho: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 b. s 2p n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 20 11.982 20 1 2.132 4.22865 n1 n2 2 The test statistic is t x1 x2 Do 1 1 s 2p n1 n2 3.70 3.30 0 1 1 4.22865 20 20 0.4 0.62 .65028 c. The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 20 + 20 – 2 = 38. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 ≈ 1.684. The rejection region is t < −1.684 or t > 1.684. d. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 0.62 1.684), Ho is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean number of items recalled by the two groups at α = .10. e. The p-value is p = .542. This is the probability of observing our test statistic or anything more unusual if H0 is true. Since the p-value is not less than α = .10, there is no evidence to reject H0 . There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean number of items recalled by the two groups at α = .10. f. We must assume: 1. 2. 3. 7.14 20 20 2 a. Both populations are normal Random and independent samples σ12 σ 22 Let μ1 = mean score for males and μ2 = mean score for females. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.645. The 90% confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) zα / 2 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 (39.08 38.79) 1.645 6.732 6.942 127 114 0.29 1.452 (1.162, 1.742) We are 90% confident that the difference in mean service-rating scores between males and females. b. Because 0 falls in the 90% confidence interval, we are 90% confident that there is no difference in the mean service-rating scores between males and females. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.15 a. 383 Let µ1 = mean forecast error of buy-side analysts and µ2 = mean forecast error of sell-side analysts. For confidence coefficient 0.95, α = .05 and α /2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) z.025 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 (.85 (.05)) 1.96 1.932 .852 .90 .064 (.836, .964) 3,526 58,562 We are 95% confident that the difference in the mean forecast error of buy-side analysts and sell-side analysts is between .836 and .964. b. Based on 95% confidence interval in part a, the buy-side analysts has the greater mean forecast error because our interval contains positive numbers. c. The assumptions about the underlying populations of forecast errors that are necessary for the validity of the inference are: 1. 2. 7.16 The samples are randomly and independently sampled. The sample sizes are sufficiently large. a. No. Just looking at the sample means, as the students went from no solution to check figures, the sample mean improvement score increased. However, as the students went from check figures to complete solutions, the sample mean improvement score dropped to below the no solution group. b. The problem with using only the sample means to make inferences about the population mean knowledge gains for the three groups of students is that we don’t know the variability or the “spread” of the probability distributions of the populations. c. Let μ1 = mean knowledge gain for students in the “no solutions” group and μ2 = mean knowledge gain for students in the “check figures” group. To determine if the test score improvement decreases as the level of assistance increases, we test: H0: μ1 –μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 – μ2 > 0 d. Since the observed significance level of the test is not less than α = .05 (p = .8248 .05), do not reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean knowledge gain of students in the “no solutions” group is greater than the mean knowledge gain of students in the “check figures” group at α = .05. e. Let μ3 = mean knowledge gain of students in the “completed solutions” group. To determine if the test score improvement decreases as the level of assistance increases, we test: H0: μ2 – μ3 = 0 Ha: μ2 – μ3 > 0 f. Since the observed significance level of the test is not less than α = .05 (p = .1849 .05), do not reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean knowledge gain of students in the “check figures” group is greater than the mean knowledge gain of students in the “complete solutions” group at α = .05. g. To determine if the test score improvement decreases as the level of assistance increases, we test: H0: μ1 – μ3 = 0 Ha: μ1 – μ3 > 0 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 384 7.17 Chapter 7 h. Since the observed significance level of the test is not less than α = .05 (p = .2726 .05), do not reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean knowledge gain of students in the “no solutions” group is greater than the mean knowledge gain of students in the “complete solutions” group at α = .05. a. The descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Text-line, Witness-line, Intersection Variable Text-lin WitnessIntersec N 3 6 5 Mean 0.3830 0.3042 0.3290 Median 0.3740 0.2955 0.3190 TrMean 0.3830 0.3042 0.3290 Variable Text-lin WitnessIntersec Minimum 0.3350 0.1880 0.2850 Maximum 0.4400 0.4390 0.3930 Q1 0.3350 0.2045 0.2900 Q3 0.4400 0.4075 0.3730 StDev 0.0531 0.1015 0.0443 SE Mean 0.0306 0.0415 0.0198 Let μ1 = mean zinc measurement for the text-line, μ2 = mean zinc measurement for the line, and μ3 = mean zinc measurement for the intersection. s 2p witness- (n1 1) s12 (n3 1) s32 (3 1).05312 (5 1).04432 .00225 35 2 n1 n3 2 For α = .05, α/2 = .05/2 = .025. Using Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 3 + 5 – 2 = 6, t.025 = 2.447. The 95% confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( x1 x3 ) tα / 2 s 2p (.3830 .3290) 2.447 .00225 3 5 n n 1 3 0.0540 .0848 (0.0308, 0.1388) We are 95% confident that the difference in mean zinc level between text-line and between −0.0308 and 0.1388. intersection is To determine if there is a difference in the mean zinc measurement between text-line and intersection, we test: H0: μ1 = μ3 Ha: μ1 ≠ μ3 The test statistic is t ( x1 x3 ) Do s 2p 1 1 n n 1 3 (.3830 .3290) 0 1 1 .00225 3 5 1.56 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 3 + 5 – 2 = 6. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.447. The rejection region is t < −2.447 or t > 2.447. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 1.56 2.365), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean zinc measurement between text-line and intersection at α = .05. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses b. s 2p n2 1 s22 n3 1 s32 n2 n3 2 385 (6 1).10152 (5 1).04432 .006596 652 For α = .05, α/2 = .05/2 = .025. Using Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 6 + 5 – 2 = 9, t.025 = 2.262. The 95% confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( x2 x3 ) tα / 2 s 2p .3042 .3290 2.262 .006596 6 5 n2 n3 .0248 .1112 (.1361, .0864) We are 95% confident that the difference in mean zinc level between witness-line and intersection is between −0.1361 and 0.0864. To determine if the difference in mean zinc measurement between the witness-line and the intersection, we test: H0: μ2 = μ3 Ha: μ2 ≠ μ3 The test statistic is t x2 x3 Do s 2p 1 1 n n 2 3 .3042 .3290 0 1 1 .006596 6 5 .50 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 6 + 5 – 2 = 9, t.025 = 2.262. The rejection region is t < −2.262 or t > 2.262. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = −.50 </ −2.262), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in mean zinc measurement between witness-line and intersection at α = .05. c. If we order the sample means, the largest is Text-line, the next largest is intersection and the smallest is witness-line. In parts a and b, we found that text-line is not different from the intersection and that the witness-line is not different from the intersection. However, we cannot make any decisions about the difference between the witness-line and the text-line. d. In order for the above inferences to be valid, we must assume: 1. The three samples are randomly selected in an independent manner from the three target populations. 2. All three sampled populations have distributions that are approximately normal. 3. All three population variances are equal (i.e. σ 12 = σ 22 = σ 32 ) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 386 7.18 Chapter 7 Let μ1 = the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group and μ2 = the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: CMC, FTF Variable CMC FTF N 24 24 N* 0 0 Mean 3.500 3.542 SE Mean 0.159 0.134 StDev 0.780 0.658 Minimum 2.000 2.000 Q1 3.000 3.000 Median 3.500 4.000 Q3 4.000 4.000 Maximum 5.000 5.000 Some preliminary calculations are: s 2p n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 24 1.7802 24 1.6582 0.5207 n1 n2 2 24 24 2 To determine if the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group is lower than the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 < 0 The test statistic is t x1 x2 Do 1 1 s 2p n1 n2 3.500 3.542 0 0.042 .20 1 1 .5207 24 24 .20831 The rejection region requires α= .10 in the lower tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 24 + 24 – 2 = 46. From Table V, Appendix B, t.10 ≈1.303. The rejection region is t < −1.303. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = −.20 −1.303), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group is lower than the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group at α = .10. 7.19 Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Control, Rude Variable Rude Control N 45 53 Mean 8.511 11.81 StDev 3.992 7.38 Minimum 0.000 0.00 Q1 5.500 5.50 Median 9.000 12.00 Q3 11.000 17.50 Maximum 18.000 30.00 Let μ1 = mean performance level of students in the rudeness group and μ2 = mean performance level of students in the control group. To determine if the true performance level for students in the rudeness condition is lower than the true mean performance level for students in the control group, we test: H0: µ1 − µ2 = 0 Ha: µ1 − µ2 < 0 The test statistic is z ( x1 x2 ) 0 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 (8.511 11.81) 0 3.9222 7.382 45 53 2.81 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 387 The rejection region requires α = .01 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z < −2.33. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −2.81 < −2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the true mean performance level for students in the rudeness condition is lower than the true mean performance level for students in the control group at α = .01. 7.20 a. The first population is the set of responses for all business students who have access to lecture notes and the second population is the set of responses for all business students not having access to lecture notes. b. To determine if there is a difference in the mean response of the two groups, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) 0 s12 n1 s22 n2 (8.48 7.80) 0 = 2.19 .94 2.99 86 35 The rejection region requires α/2 = .01/2 = .005 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The rejection region is z < −2.58 or z > 2.58. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 2.19 2.58), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean response of the two groups at α = .01. c. For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) z.005 s12 s22 .94 2.99 (8.48 − 7.80) ± 2.58 n1 n2 86 35 .68 ± .801 (−.121, 1.481) We are 99% confident that the difference in the mean response between the two groups is between −.121 and 1.481. d. A 95% confidence interval would be smaller than the 99% confidence interval. The z value used in the 95% confidence interval is z.025 = 1.96 compared with the z value used in the 99% confidence interval of z.005 = 2.58. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 388 7.21 Chapter 7 Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Honey, DM Variable Honey DM N 35 33 Mean 10.714 8.333 StDev 2.855 3.256 Minimum 4.000 3.000 Q1 9.000 6.000 Median 11.000 9.000 Q3 12.000 11.500 Maximum 16.000 15.000 Let μ1 = mean improvement in total cough symptoms score for children receiving the Honey dosage and μ2 = mean improvement in total cough symptoms score for children receiving the DM dosage. To test if honey may be a preferable treatment for the cough and sleep difficulty associated with childhood upper respiratory tract infection, we test: H0: μ1 - μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 - μ2 > 0 The test statistic is z ( x1 x2 ) 0 σ12 n1 σ 22 n2 (10.714 8.333) 0 2.8552 3.2562 35 33 3.20 Since no α was given, we will use α = .05.The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 3.20 > 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that honey may be a preferable treatment for the cough and sleep difficulty associated with childhood upper respiratory tract infection at α = .05. 7.22 a. The bacteria counts are probably normally distributed because each count is the median of five measurements from the same specimen. b. Let μ1 = mean of the bacteria count for the discharge and μ2 = mean of the bacteria count upstream. Since we want to test if the mean of the bacteria count for the discharge exceeds the mean of the count upstream, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 c. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Plant, Upstream Variable Plant Upstream N 6 6 Mean 32.10 29.617 Median 31.75 30.000 TrMean 32.10 29.617 Variable Plant Upstream Minimum 28.20 26.400 Maximum 36.20 32.300 Q1 29.40 27.075 Q3 35.23 31.850 s 2p StDev 3.19 2.355 (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (6 1)3.192 (6 1)2.3552 7.861 n1 n2 2 662 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. SE Mean 1.30 0.961 Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses The test statistic is t ( x1 x2 ) 0 s 2p 1 1 n n 1 2 (32.10 29.617) 0 1 1 7.861 6 6 389 1.53 No α level was given, so we will use α = .05. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 6 + 6 – 2 = 10. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.812. The rejection region is t > 1.812. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 1.53 1.812), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean bacteria count for the discharge exceeds the mean of the count upstream at α = .05. d. We must assume: 1. 2. 3. 7.23 a. The mean counts per specimen for each location is normally distributed. The variances of the 2 distributions are equal. Independent and random samples were selected from each population. Let μ1 = the mean heat rates of traditional augmented gas turbines and μ2 = the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines. Some preliminary calculations are: s 2p n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 39 112792 7 1 26522 2,371,831.409 n1 n2 2 39 7 2 To determine if there is a difference in the mean heat rates for traditional augmented gas turbines and the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines, we test: Ho: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is t x1 x2 Do 1 1 s 2p n1 n2 11,544 12,312 0 1 1 2,371,831.409 39 7 768 1.21 632.1782 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 39 + 7 – 2 = 44. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 ≈ 2.021. The rejection region is t < −2.021 or t > 2.021. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = −1.20 −2.021), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the mean heat rates for traditional augmented gas turbines and the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines at α = .05. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 390 Chapter 7 b. Let μ3 = the mean heat rates of advanced augmented gas turbines and μ2 = the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines. Some preliminary calculations are: s 2p n3 1 s32 n2 1 s22 21 1 6392 7 1 26522 n3 n2 2 21 7 2 1,937,117.077 To determine if there is a difference in the mean heat rates for traditional augmented gas turbines and the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines, we test: H0: μ3 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ3 − μ2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is t x3 x2 Do 1 1 s 2p n n 3 2 9,764 12,312 0 1 1 1,937,117.077 21 7 2,548 4.19 607.4329 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 21 + 7 – 2 = 26. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 ≈ 2.056. The rejection region is t < −2.056 or t > 2.056. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = −4.19 < −2.021), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the mean heat rates for advanced augmented gas turbines and the mean heat rates of aeroderivative augmented gas turbines at α = .05. 7.24 a. We cannot make inferences about the difference between the mean salaries of male and female accounting/finance/banking professionals because no standard deviations are provided. b. To determine if the mean salary for males is significantly greater than that for females, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. To make things easier, we will assume that the standard deviations for the 2 groups are the same. The test statistic is z x1 x2 Do 69, 484 52,012 0 σ12 n 1 n2 σ 22 1 1 1400 1400 σ2 17,836 σ (.037796) 471,896.2038 σ In order to reject H0 this test statistic must fall in the rejection region, or be greater than 1.645. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 391 Solving for σ we get: 471,896.2038 z 1.645 σ σ 471,896.2038 286,866.99 1.645 Thus, to reject H0 the average of the two standard deviations has to be less than $286,866.99. 7.25 7.26 c. Yes. In fact, reasonable values for the standard deviation will be around $5,000. which is much smaller than the required $286,866.99. d. These data were collected from voluntary subjects who responded to a Web-based survey. Thus, this is not a random sample, but a self-selected sample. Generally, subjects who respond to surveys tend to have very strong opinions, which may not be the same as the population in general. Thus, the results from this self-selected sample may not reflect the results from the population in general. a. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = nd − 1 = 12 − 1 = 11. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.796. The rejection region is t > 1.796. b. From Table V, with df = nd − 1 = 24 − 1 = 23, t.10 = 1.319. The rejection region is t > 1.319. c. From Table V, with df = nd − 1 = 4 − 1 = 3, t.025 = 3.182. The rejection region is t > 3.182. d. Using Minitab, with df = nd − 1 = 80 − 1 = 79, t.01 = 2.374. The rejection region is t > 2.374. a. Pair Difference 1 2 3 4 5 6 3 2 2 4 0 1 nd d sd2 b. d i 1 nd i = 12 =2 6 nd di nd i 1 di2 nd i 1 nd 1 2 (12)2 34 6 = =2 5 μd = μ1 − μ2 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 392 Chapter 7 c. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nD − 1 = 6 − 1 = 5, t.025 = 2.571. The confidence interval is: d tα / 2 d. sd 2 2.571 2 ± 1.484 (.516, 3.484) nd 6 H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 The test statistic is t = t d sd nd 2 = 3.46 2/ 6 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = nD − 1 = 6 − 1 = 5. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.571. The rejection region is t < −2.571 or t > 2.571. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (3.46 > 2.571), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the mean difference is different from 0 at α = .05. 7.27 Let μ1 = mean of population 1 and μ2 = mean of population 2. a. H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd < 0 where μd = μ1 − μ2 b. Some preliminary calculations are: Pair Population 1 Population 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 19 25 31 52 49 34 59 47 17 51 24 27 36 53 55 34 66 51 20 55 nd d di i 1 nd 37 3.7 10 The test statistic is t d sd nd sd2 Difference, d −5 −2 −5 −1 −6 0 −7 −4 −3 −4 nd di nd i 1 2 di nd i 1 nd 1 2 2 37 181 10 10 1 3.7 5.29 4.9 10 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 4.9 Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 393 The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 10 – 1 = 9. From Table V, Appendix B, t.10 = 1.383. The rejection region is t < −1.383. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = −5.29 < −1.383), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean of population 1 is less than the mean for population 2 at α = .10. c. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nd – 1 = 10 – 1 = 9, t.05 = 1.833. The 90% confidence interval is: d tα / 2 sd nd 3.7 1.833 4.9 10 3.7 1.28 (4.98, 2.42) We are 90% confident that the difference in the two population means is between −4.98 and −2.42. 7.28 d. We must assume that the population of differences is normal, and the sample of differences is randomly selected. a. H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 < 0 The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. The rejection region is z < −1.28. b. H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 < 0 The test statistic is z d 0 3.5 0 4.71 . sd 21 nd 38 The rejection region is z < −1.28 (Refer to part a.) Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −4.71 < −1.28), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate μ1 − μ2 < 0 at α = .10. c. Since the sample size of the number of pairs is greater than 30, we do not need to assume that the population of differences is normal. The sampling distribution of d is approximately normal by the Central Limit Theorem. We must assume that the differences are randomly selected. d. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The 90% confidence interval is: d z.05 e. sd 21 3.5 1.645 3.5 1.223 (4.723, 2.277) 38 nd The confidence interval provides more information since it gives an interval of possible values for the difference between the population means. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 394 7.29 Chapter 7 a. Some preliminary calculations: nd d sd2 d i 1 nd i 468 11.7 40 nd di nd i 1 2 di nd i 1 2 nd 1 4682 40 36.0103 40 1 6,880 To determine if (μ1 − μ2) = μd is different from 10, we test: H0: μd = 10 Ha: μd ≠ 10 The test statistic is z d D0 11.7 10 1.79 sd 36.0103 nd 40 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.79 1.96), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate (μ1 − μ2) = μd is different from 10 at α = .05. 7.30 b. The p-value is p = P(z ≤ −1.79) + P(z ≥ 1.79) = (.5 − .4633) + (.5 − .4633) = .0367 + .0367 = .0734. The probability of observing our test statistic or anything more unusual if H0 is true is .0734. Since this p-value is not small, there is no evidence to indicate (μ1 − μ2) = μd is different from 10 at α = .05. c. No, we do not need to assume that the population of differences is normally distributed. Because our sample size is 40, the Central Limit Theorem applies. a. The data should be analyzed using a paired-difference test because that is how the data were collected. Evaluation scores were collected twice from each agency, once in 2007 and once in 2008. Since the two sets of data are not independent, they cannot be analyzed using independent samples. b. The differences between the 2008 score and the 2007 score for each agency are: Agency GSA Agriculture Social Security USAID Defense Score07 34 33 33 32 17 Score08 40 35 33 42 32 Difference (08-07. 6 2 0 10 15 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses c. 395 The mean and standard deviation of the differences are: d di nd 33 6.6 5 sd2 d 2 i d 2 i nd nd 1 332 5 147.2 36.8 5 1 4 365 sd sd2 36.8 6.066 7.31 d Do 6.6 0 2.435 6.066 sd 5 nd d. The test statistic is t e. The rejection requires α = 0.10 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = nd − 1 = 5 − 1 = 4. From Table V, Appendix B, t.10 = 1.533. The rejection region is t > 1.533. f. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 2.433 > 1.533), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the true mean evaluation score of government agencies in 2008 exceeds the true mean evaluation score in 2007 at α = 0.10. a. Let μ1 = the mean salary of technology professionals in 2003 and μ2 = the mean salary of technology professionals in 2005. Let μd = μ1 − μ2. To determine if the mean salary of technology professionals at all U.S. metropolitan areas has increased between 2003 and 2005, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 < 0 H0: μd = 0 OR Ha: μd < 0 b. Metro Area Silicon Valley New York Washington, D.C. Los Angeles Denver Boston Atlanta Chicago Philadelphia San Diego Seattle Dallas-Ft. Worth Detroit 2003 Salary ($ thousands) 87.7 78.6 71.4 70.8 73.0 76.3 73.6 71.1 69.5 69.0 71.0 73.0 62.3 2005 Salary ($ thousands) 85.9 80.3 77.4 77.1 77.1 80.1 73.2 73.0 69.8 77.1 66.9 71.0 64.1 Difference (2003 – 2005) 1.8 −1.7 −6.0 −6.3 −4.1 −3.8 0.4 −1.9 −0.3 −8.1 4.1 2.0 −1.8 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 396 Chapter 7 nd c. d d i 1 nd nd sd2 1 di2 25.7 1.98 13 nd 1 di nd nd 1 2 (25.7) 2 13 12.9819 13 1 206.59 sd sd2 12.9819 3.6 d μo The test statistic is t e. The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 13 – 1 = 12. From Table V, Appendix B, t.10 = 1.356. The rejection region is t < −1.356. f. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = −1.98 < −1.356), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean salary of technology professionals at all U.S. metropolitan areas has increased between 2003 and 2005 at α = .10. g. In order for the inference to be valid, we must assume that the population of differences is normal and that we have a random sample. sd nd 1.98 0 d. 3.6 13 1.98 Using MINITAB, the histogram of the differences is: Histogram of Diff 3.0 Fr equency 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 Diff The graph is fairly mound-shaped although it is somewhat skewed to the right. Since there are only 13 observations, this graph is close enough to being mound-shaped to indicate the normal assumption is reasonable. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.32 397 a. The data should be analyzed as a paired difference experiment because each actor who won an Academy Award was paired with another actor with similar characteristics who did not win the award. b. Let μ1 = mean life expectancy of Academy Award winners and μ2 = mean life expectancy of nonAcademy Award winners. To compare the mean life expectancies of Academy Award winners and non-winners, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 7.33 c. Since the p-value was so small, there is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean life expectancies of the Academy Award winners and non-winners are different for any value of α > .003. Since the sample mean life expectancy of Academy Award winners is greater than that for non-winners, we can conclude that Academy Award winners have a longer mean life expectancy than non-winners. a. The data should be analyzed using a paired-difference test because that is how the data were collected. Response rates were observed twice from each survey using the “not selling” introduction method and the standard introduction method. Since the two sets of data are not independent, they cannot be analyzed using independent samples. b. Some preliminary calculations are: s 2p (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (29 1)(.12) 2 (29 1)(.11)2 .01325 n1 n2 2 29 29 2 Let μ1 = mean response rate for those using the “not selling” introduction and μ2 = mean response rate for those using the standard introduction. Using the independent-samples t-test to determine if the mean response rate for “not selling” is higher than that for the standard introduction, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 The test statistic is t ( x1 x2 ) 0 s 2p 1 1 n n 1 2 (.262 .246) 0 1 1 .01325 29 29 .53 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 -2 = 29 + 29 – 2 = 56. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 ≈ 1.671. The rejection region is t > 1. 671. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t =.53 1.671), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean response rate for “not selling” is higher than that for the standard introduction at α =.05. c. Since p-value is less than α =.05 (p = .001 < .05), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean response rate for “not selling” is higher than that for the standard introduction at α =.05. d. The two inferences in parts b and c have different results because using the independent samples ttest is not appropriate for this study. The paired-difference design is better. There is much variation in response rates from survey to survey. By using the paired difference design, we can eliminate the survey to survey differences. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 398 7.34 Chapter 7 a. Let μ1 = mean driver chest injury rating and μ2 = mean passenger chest injury rating. Because the data are paired, we are interested in μ1 − μ2 = μd, the difference in mean chest injury ratings between drivers and passengers. b. The data were collected as matched pairs and thus, must be analyzed as matched pairs. Two ratings are obtained for each car – the driver’s chest injury rating and the passenger’s chest injury rating. c. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: DrivChst, PassChst, diff Variable DrivChst PassChst diff N 98 98 98 Mean 49.663 50.224 -0.561 Median 50.000 50.500 0.000 TrMean 49.682 50.148 -0.420 Variable DrivChst PassChst diff Minimum 34.000 35.000 -15.000 Maximum 68.000 69.000 13.000 Q1 45.000 45.000 -4.000 Q3 54.000 55.000 3.000 StDev 6.670 7.107 5.517 SE Mean 0.674 0.718 0.557 For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The 99% confidence interval is: d z.005 7.35 sd 5.517 0.561 2.58 0.561 1.438 (1.999, 0.877) nd 98 d. We are 99% confidence that the difference between the mean chest injury ratings of drivers and front-seat passengers is between −1.999 and 0.877. Since 0 is in the confidence interval, there is no evidence that the true mean driver chest injury rating exceeds the true mean passenger chest injury rating. e. Since the sample size is large, the sampling distribution of d is approximately normal by the Central Limit Theorem. We must assume that the differences are randomly selected. Some preliminary calculations are: Operator 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 d = Difference (Before - After) 5 3 9 7 2 −2 −1 11 0 5 d = 39 = 3.9 nd 10 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses d 399 2 sd2 d 2 nE nd 1 39 2 10 = 18.5444 10 1 319 sd = 18.5444 = 4.3063 a. To determine if the new napping policy reduced the mean number of customer complaints, we test: H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd > 0 The test statistic is t = d 0 3.9 0 = 2.864 4.3063 sd 10 nd The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = nd − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.833. The rejection region is t > 1.833. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 2.864 > 1.833), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the new napping policy reduced the mean number of customer complaints at α = .05. b. In order for the above test to be valid, we must assume that 1. The population of differences is normal 2. The differences are randomly selected 7.36 a. Let μC1 = mean relational intimacy score for the CMC group on the first meeting and μC3 = mean relational intimacy score for the CMC group on the third meeting. Let μCd = difference in mean relational intimacy score between the first and third meetings for the CMC group. To determine if the mean relational intimacy score will increase between the first and third meetings, we test: Ho: μCd = 0 Ha: μCd < 0 b. The researchers used the paired t-test because the same individuals participated in each of the three meeting sessions. Thus, the samples would not be independent. c. Since the p-value is so small (p = .003), H0 would be rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the CMC group increased from the first to the third meeting for any value of α > .003. d. Let μF1 = mean relational intimacy score for the FTF group on the first meeting and μF3 = mean relational intimacy score for the FTF group on the third meeting. Let μFd = difference in mean relational intimacy score between the first and third meetings for the FTF group. To determine if the mean relational intimacy score will change between the first and third meetings, we test: H0: μFd = 0 Ha: μFd ≠ 0 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 400 Chapter 7 e. 7.37 Since the p-value is not small (p = .39), H0 would be not be rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that the mean relational intimacy score for participants in the FTF group changed from the first to the third meeting for any value of α < .39. Some preliminary calculations are: Circuit Standard Method 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 .80 .80 .83 .53 .50 .96 .99 .98 .81 .95 .99 Huffman-coding Method .78 .80 .86 .53 .51 .68 .82 .72 .45 .79 .77 Difference .02 .00 -.03 .00 -.01 .28 .17 .26 .36 .16 .22 nd d nd sd2 1 d 1 nd di2 i nd 1 1.43 0.13 11 di nd nd 1 2 (1.43) 2 11 0.0194 11 1 0.3799 sd sd2 0.0194 0.1393 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nd – 1 = 11 – 1 = 10, t.025 = 2.228. The 95% confidence interval is: d t.025 sd .1393 .13 2.228 .13 .094 (0.036, 0.224) 11 n We are 95% confident that the true difference in mean compression ratio between the standard method and the Huffman-based coding method is between 0.036 and 0.224. Since 0 is not contained in the interval, we can conclude there is a difference in mean compression ratios between the two methods. Since the values of the confidence interval are positive, we can conclude that the mean compression ratio for the Huffmanbased method is smaller than the standard method. 7.38 Let μ1 = mean number of crashes caused by red light running per intersection before camera is installed and μ2 = mean number of crashes caused by red light running per intersection after camera is installed. The data are collected as paired data, so we will analyze the data using a paired t-test. Then, let μd = μ1 − μ2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 401 Using MINITAB to compute the differences (Di) and the summary statistics, the results are: Descriptive Statistics: Before, After, Di Variable Before After Di N 13 13 13 Mean 2.513 1.506 1.007 StDev 1.976 1.448 1.209 Minimum 0.270 0.000 -0.850 Q1 0.805 0.260 0.265 Median 2.400 1.360 0.560 Q3 3.405 2.380 2.335 Maximum 7.350 4.920 2.780 To determine if the mean number of crashes caused by red light running has been reduced since the installation of red light cameras, we test: Ho: µd = 0 Ha: µd > 0 The test statistic is t d Do 1.007 0 3.003 1.209 sd 13 nd The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = nd − 1 = 13 − 1 = 12. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.782. The rejection region is t > 1.782. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 3.003 > 1.782), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that photo-red enforcement program is effective in reducing redlight-running crash incidents at intersections at α = 0.05. 7.39 Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Male, Female, Diff Variable Male Female Diff N 19 19 19 Mean 5.895 5.526 0.368 Median 6.000 5.000 1.000 TrMean 5.706 5.294 0.294 Variable Male Female Diff Minimum 3.000 3.000 -5.000 Maximum 12.000 12.000 7.000 Q1 4.000 4.000 -3.000 Q3 8.000 7.000 3.000 StDev 2.378 2.458 3.515 SE Mean 0.546 0.564 0.806 Let μ1 = mean number of swims by male rat pups and μ2 = mean number of swims by female rat pups. Then μd = μ1 − μ2. To determine if there is a difference in the mean number of swims required by male and female rat pups, we test: H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 The test statistic is t d Do .368 0 0.46 3.515 sd 19 nd The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 19 – 1 = 18. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.734. The rejection region is t < −1.734 or t > 1.734. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 402 Chapter 7 Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = 0.46 1.734), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the mean number of swims required by male and female rat pups at α = .10. (using Minitab, the p-value ≈ .653.) Since the sample size is not large, we must assume that the population of differences is normally distributed and that the sample of differences is random. There is no indication that the sample differences are not from a random sample. However, because the number of swims is discrete, the differences are probably not normal. 7.40 Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: HMETER, HSTATIC, Diff Variable HMETER HSTATIC Diff N 40 40 40 N* 0 0 0 Mean 1.0405 1.0410 -0.000523 Variable HMETER HSTATIC Diff Median 1.0232 1.0237 -0.000165 Q3 1.0883 1.0908 0.000317 SE Mean 0.00638 0.00649 0.000204 StDev 0.0403 0.0410 0.001291 Minimum 0.9936 0.9930 -0.004480 Q1 1.0047 1.0043 -0.001078 Maximum 1.1026 1.1052 0.001580 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nd – 1 = 40 – 1 = 39, t.025 ≈ 2.021. The 95% confidence interval is: sd 0.001291 0.000523 2.021 0.000523 0.000413 n 40 (0.000936, 0.000110) d t.025 We are 95% confident that the true difference in mean density measurements between the two methods is between -0.000936 and -0.000110. Since the absolute value of this interval is completely less than the desired maximum difference of .002, the winery should choose the alternative method of measuring wine density. 7.41 a. From the exercise, we know that x1 and x2 are binomial random variables with the number of trials x equal to n1 and n2. From Chapter 7, we know that for large n, the distribution of pˆ1 1 is n1 approximately normal. Since x1 is simply p̂1 multiplied by a constant, x1 will also have an approximate normal distribution. Similarly, the distribution of pˆ 2 x2 is approximately normal, n2 and thus, the distribution of x2 is approximately normal. b. The Central Limit Theorem is necessary to find the sampling distributions of p̂1 and p̂2 when n1 and n2 are large. Once we have established that both p̂1 and p̂2 have normal distributions, then the distribution of their difference will also be normal. 7.42 a. The rejection region requires α = .01 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z < −2.33. b. The rejection region requires α = .025 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.43 c. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < −1.645. d. The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. The rejection region is z < −1.28. From Section 5.4, it was given that the distribution of p̂ is approximately normal if npˆ 15 and nqˆ 15 . a. n1 pˆ1 12(.42) 5.04 15 and n1 qˆ1 12(.58) 6.96 15 n2 pˆ 2 14(.57) 7.98 15 and n2 qˆ2 14(.43) 6.02 15 Thus, the sample sizes are not large enough to conclude the sampling distribution of ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) is approximately normal. b. n1 pˆ1 12(.92) 11.04 15 and n1 qˆ1 12(.08) 0.96 15 n2 pˆ 2 14(.86) 12.04 15 and n2 qˆ2 14(.14) 1.96 15 Thus, the sample sizes are not large enough to conclude the sampling distribution of ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) is approximately normal. c. n1 pˆ1 30(.70) 21 15 and n1 qˆ1 30(.30) 9 15 n2 pˆ 2 30(.73) 21.9 15 and n2 qˆ2 30(.27) 8.1 15 Thus, the sample sizes are not large enough to conclude the sampling distribution of ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) is approximately normal. d. n1 pˆ1 100(.93) 93 15 and n1 qˆ1 100(.07) 7 15 n2 pˆ 2 250(.97) 242.5 15 and n2 qˆ2 250(.03) 7.5 15 Thus, the sample sizes are not large enough to conclude the sampling distribution of ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) is approximately normal. e. n1 pˆ1 125(.08) 10 15 and n1 qˆ1 125(.92) 115 15 n2 pˆ 2 200(.12) 24 15 and n2 qˆ2 200(.88) 176 15 Thus, the sample sizes are not large enough to conclude the sampling distribution of ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) is approximately normal. 7.44 403 For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval for p1 − p2 is approximately: a. ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .65(1 .65) .58(1 .58) (.65 − .58) ± 1.96 400 400 n1 n2 .07 − .067 (.003, .137) b. ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 (.31 − .25) − 1.96 n1 n2 .31(1 .31) .25(1 .25) 180 250 .06 ± .086 (−.026, .146) c. ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .46(1 .46) .61(1 .61) (.46 − .61) ±1.96 100 120 n1 n2 −.15 ± .131 (−.281, −.019) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 404 7.45 Chapter 7 a. H0: (p1 − p2) = 0 Ha: (p1 − p2) ≠ 0 Will need to calculate the following: p̂1 = 320 400 320 400 = .40 p̂2 = = .50 p̂ = .45 800 800 800 800 The test statistic is z = pˆ1 pˆ 2 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 = (.40 .50) 0 1 1 (.45)(.55) 800 800 = −4.02 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −4.02 < −1.96), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportions are unequal at α = .05. b. The problem is identical to part a until the rejection region. The rejection region requires α/2 = .01/2 = .005 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The rejection region is z < −2.58 or z > 2.58. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −4.02 < −2.58), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportions are unequal at α = .01. c. H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p1 − p2 < 0 Test statistic as above: z = −4.02 The rejection region requires α = .01 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z < −2.33. d. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −4.02 < −2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that p1 < p2 at α = .01. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z05 = 1.645. The confidence interval is: pˆ qˆ pˆ pˆ (.4)(.6) (.5)(.5) ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.05 1 1 2 2 (.4 − .5) ± (1.645) n1 n2 800 800 −.10 ± .04 (−.14, −.06) We are 90% confident that the difference between p1 and p2 is between −.14 and −.06. 7.46 p̂ = n1 pˆ1 n2 pˆ 2 55(.7) 65(.6) 78 = .65 n1 n2 55 65 120 q̂ = 1 − p̂ = 1 − .65 = .35 H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p1 − p2 > 0 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.7 .6) 0 1 1 .65(.35) 55 65 405 .1 = 1.14 .08739 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.14 1.645), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the proportion from population 1 is greater than that for population 2 at α = .05. 7.47 a. pˆ1 x1 29 .153 n1 189 b. pˆ 2 x2 32 .215 n2 149 c. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The 90% confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .153(.847) .215(.785) (.153 .215) 1.645 n1 n2 189 149 .062 .070 (.132, .008) 7.48 d. We are 90% confident that the difference in the proportion of bidders who fall prey to the winner’s curse between super-experienced bidders and less-experienced bidders is between −.132 and .008. Since this interval contains 0, there is no evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the proportion of bidders who fall prey to the winner’s curse between super-experienced bidders and less-experienced bidders. a. The point estimate for the proportion of all Democrats who prefer steak as their favorite barbeque x 662 food is pˆ1 1 .530 . n1 1, 250 b. The point estimate for the proportion of all Republicans who prefer steak as their favorite barbeque x 586 .630 . food is pˆ 2 2 n2 930 c. The point estimate for the difference between proportions of all Democrats and all Republicans who prefer steak as their barbeque food is pˆ1 pˆ 2 .530 .630 .100 . Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 406 Chapter 7 d. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of all Democrats and all Republicans who prefer steak as their barbeque food is pˆ1 pˆ 2 z.025 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .53(.47) .63(.37) (.530 .630) 1.96 n1 n2 1, 250 930 .100 .042 (.142, .058) 7.49 e. We are 95 percent confident that the difference in proportions of all Democrats and all Republicans who prefer steak as their favorite barbeque food is between -.142 and -.058. Since this interval does not contain 0, there is a sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a significant difference between the proportions of all Democrats and all Republicans who prefer steak as their favorite barbeque food. f. “95% confident” means that in repeated sampling, 95% of all confidence intervals constructed in the same manner will contain the true population difference in proportions and 5% will not. a. Let p1 = proportion of employed individuals who had a routine checkup in the past year and p2 = proportion of unemployed individuals who had a routine checkup in the past year. The researchers are interested in whether there is a difference in these two proportions, so the parameter of interest is p 1 – p 2. b. To determine if there is a difference in the proportions of employed and unemployed individuals who had a routine checkup in the past year, we test: H0: p1 – p2 = 0 Ha: p1 – p2 ≠ 0 c. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 pˆ x1 642 .563 n1 1,140 pˆ 2 x2 740 .669 n2 1,106 x1 x2 642 740 1, 382 .615 n1 n2 1,140 1,106 2, 246 The test statistic is z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 qˆ 1 pˆ 1 .615 .385 (.563 .669) 0 1 1 .615(.385) 1,140 1,106 5.16 d. The rejection region requires α/2 = .01/2 = .005 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The rejection region is z < −2.58 or z > 2.58. e. The p-value is P(z ≤ −5.16) + P(z ≥ 5.16) ≈ (.5 − .5) + (.5 − .5) = 0. This agrees with what was reported. f. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −5.16 < −2.58), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the proportion of employed and unemployed individuals who had routine checkups in the past year at α = .01. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.50 a. 407 Let p1 = proportion of men who prefer to keep track of appointments in their head and p2 = proportion of women who prefer to keep track of appointments in their head. To determine if the proportion of men who prefer to keep track of appointments in their head is greater than that of women, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p1 − p2 > 0 b. pˆ n1 pˆ1 n2 pˆ 2 500(.56) 500(.46) .51 and qˆ 1 pˆ 1 .51 .49 n1 n2 500 500 The test statistic is z 7.51 ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n n 1 2 (.56 .46) 0 1 1 .51(.49) 500 500 3.16 c. The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z > 2.33. d. The p-value is p = P(z ≥ 3.16) ≈ .5 − .5 = 0. e. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 3.16 > 2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the proportion of men who prefer to keep track of appointments in their head is greater than that of women at α = .01. a. The two populations of interest are all male cell phone users and all female cell phone users. b. The estimate of the proportion of men who sometimes do not drive safely while talking or texting on a cell phone is p̂1 = .32. The estimate of the proportion of women is p̂2 = .25. c. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α /2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. A 90% confidence interval for the difference between the proportions of men and women who sometimes do not drive safely while talking or texting on a cell phone is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.05 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .32(.68) .25(.75) (.32 .25) 1.645 n1 n2 643 643 .07 .041 (.029, .111) d. e. Since the interval does not contain 0, then there is a sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference between the proportions of men and women who sometimes do not drive safely while talking or texting on a cell phone. Also, the interval contains all positive values so we can conclude that men are more likely than women to sometimes not drive safely while talking or texting on a cell phone. The estimate of the proportion of men who used their cell phone in an emergency is p̂1 = .71. The estimate of the proportion of women is p̂2 = .77. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 408 Chapter 7 f. Let p1 = proportion of men who used their cell phone in an emergency and p2 = the proportion of women who used their cell phone in an emergency. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 pˆ x1 x1 n1 pˆ1 643(.71) 456.53 n1 x1 x2 456.53 495.11 .74 n1 n2 643 643 pˆ 2 x2 x2 n2 pˆ 2 643(.77) 495.11 n2 qˆ 1 pˆ 1 .74 .26 To determine whether the proportions of men and women who used their cell phones in an emergency differ, we test: H0: p1 – p2 = 0 Ha: p1 – p2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.71 .77) 0 1 1 .74(.26) 643 643 2.45 . The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < −1.645 or z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −2.45 < −1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the proportions of men and women who used their cell phone in an emergency differ at α = .10. 7.52 a. Let p1 = proportion of customers returning the printed survey and p2 = proportion of customers returning the electronic survey. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 x1 261 .414 n1 631 pˆ 2 x2 155 .374 n2 414 For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The 90% confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.05 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .414(.586) .374(.626) (.414 .374) 1.645 n1 n2 631 414 .04 .051 (.011, .091) We are 90% confidence that the difference in the response rates for the two types of surveys is between −.011 and .091. b. Since the value .05 falls in the 90% confidence interval, it is not an unusual value. Thus, there is no evidence that the difference in response rates is different from .05. The researchers would be able to make this inference. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.53 a. 409 Let p1 = proportion of African-American drivers searched by the LAPD and p2 = proportion of white drivers searched by the LAPD. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 pˆ x1 12, 016 .195 n1 61, 688 pˆ 2 x2 5, 312 .050 n2 106, 892 x1 x2 12, 016 5, 312 17, 328 .103 n1 n2 61, 688 106, 892 168, 580 To determine if the proportions of African-American and white drivers searched differs, we test: H0: p1 – p2 = 0 Ha: p1 – p2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 .195 .050 1 1 .103(.897) 61, 688 106, 892 94.35 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 94.35 > 1.96), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the proportions of African-American drivers and white drivers searched differs at α = .05. b. Let p1 = proportion of ‘hits’ for African-American drivers searched by the LAPD and p2 = proportion of ‘hits’ for white drivers searched by the LAPD. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 pˆ x1 5,134 .427 n1 12, 016 pˆ 2 x2 3, 006 .566 n2 5, 312 x1 x2 5,134 3, 006 8,140 .470 n1 n2 12, 016 5, 312 17, 328 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.025 Appendix B, pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .427(.573) .566(.434) (.427 .566) 1.96 n1 n2 12, 016 5, 312 .139 .016 (.155, -.123) We are 95% confident that the difference in ‘hit’ rates between African-American drivers and white drivers searched by the LAPD is between −.155 and −.123. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 410 7.54 Chapter 7 Let p1 = proportion of patients in the angioplasty group who had subsequent heart attacks and p2 = proportion of patients in the medication only group who had subsequent attacks. Some preliminary calculations: x 211 pˆ1 1 .184 n1 1,145 qˆ1 1 pˆ1 1 .184 .816 x2 202 .177 n2 1,142 qˆ2 1 pˆ 2 1 .177 .823 pˆ 2 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. A 95% confidence interval for the difference in the rate of heart attacks for the two groups is ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.025 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .184(.816) .177(.823) (.184 .177) 1.96 n1 n2 1,145 1,142 .007 .032 (.025, .039) Since this interval contains 0, there is insufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the rate of heart attacks between the angioplasty group and the medication only group at α = .05. Yes, we agree with the study’s conclusion. 7.55 Let p1 = proportion of African American MBA students who begin their career as entrepreneurs and p2 = proportion of white MBA students who begin their career as entrepreneurs. Some preliminary calculations: x 209 .16 pˆ1 1 n1 1, 304 pˆ 2 x2 356 .05 n2 7,120 qˆ1 1 pˆ1 1 .160 .84 qˆ2 1 pˆ 2 1 .05 .95 We can answer the question by using either a confidence interval or a test of hypothesis. We will use the confidence interval. Since no α was given, we will us a 95% confidence interval. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. A 95% confidence interval for the difference in the proportions of two groups is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.025 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .16(.84) .05(.95) (.16 .05) 1.96 n1 n2 1, 304 7,120 .11 .021 (.089, .131) Since this interval does not contain 0, then there is sufficient evidence to indicate that the proportion of African American MBA students who begin their career as entrepreneurs is significantly different than the proportion of White MBA students who begin their career as entrepreneurs. The positive values in the interval mean that the African American MBA students are more likely to begin their career as entrepreneurs than the White MBA students. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.56 411 Let p1 = accuracy rate for modules with correct code and p2 = accuracy rate for modules with defective code. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 x1 400 .891 n1 449 pˆ 2 x2 20 .408 n2 49 For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The 99% confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.005 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .891(.109) .408(.592) (.891 .408) 2.58 n1 n2 449 49 .483 .185 (.298, .668) We are 99% confident that the difference in accuracy rates between modules with correct code and modules with defective code is between .298 and .668. 7.57 a. Let p1 = proportion of women who have food cravings and p2 = proportion of men who have food cravings. We know that pˆ1 .97 and pˆ 2 .67 . We know that n1p1 > 15 and n1q1 > 15 in order for the test to be valid. Thus, n1(.97) > 15 n1 > 15/.97 ≈ 16 and n1(.03) > 15 n1 > 15/.03 = 500. Also, n2p2 > 15 and n2q2 > 15. Thus, n2(.67) > 15 n2 > 15/.67 ≈ 23 and n2(.33) > . 15 n2 > 15/.33 ≈ 46. 7.58 b. This study involved 1,000 McMaster University students. It is very dangerous to generalize the results of this study to the general adult population of North America. The sample of students used may not be representative of the population of interest. a. Let p1 = proportion of 9th grade boys who gambled weekly or daily in 1992 and p2 = proportion of 9th grade boys who gambled weekly or daily in 1998. The researchers are interested in whether there is a difference in these two proportions, so the parameter of interest is p1 – p2. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ1 pˆ x1 4, 684 .218 n1 21, 484 pˆ 2 x2 5, 313 .229 n2 23,199 x1 x2 4, 684 5, 313 9, 997 .224 n1 n2 21, 484 23,199 44, 683 qˆ 1 pˆ 1 .224 .776 To determine if there is a difference in the proportions of 9th grade boys who gambled weekly or daily in 1992 and 1998, we test: H0: p1 – p2 = 0 Ha: p1 – p2 ≠ 0 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 412 Chapter 7 The test statistic is z ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n n 1 2 (.218 .229) 0 1 1 .224(.776) 21, 484 23,199 2.79 The rejection region requires α/2 = .01/2 = .005 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The rejection region is z < −2.58 or z > 2.58. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −2.79 < −2.58), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the proportions of 9th grade boys who gambled weekly or daily in 1992 and 1998 at α = .01. b. Yes. If samples sizes are large enough, differences can almost always be found. Suppose we compute a 99% confidence interval. For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The 99% confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .218(.782) .229(.771) (.218 .229) 2.58 n1 n2 21, 484 23,199 .011 .010 (.021, .001) We are 99% confident that the difference in the proportions of 9th grade boys who gambled weekly or daily in 1992 and 1998 is between −.021 and −.001. 7.59 a. For confidence coefficient .99, α = 1 − .99 = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. n1 n 2 b. ( ME ) 2 2.582 .4(1 .4) .7(1 .7) .01 2 2.99538 29, 953.8 29, 954 .0001 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 - .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. Since we have no prior information about the proportions, we use p1 = p2 = .5 to get a conservative estimate. For a width of .05, the margin of error is .025. n1 n 2 c. ( zα / 2 )2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( zα / 2 )2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( ME ) 2 (1.645)2 .5(1 .5) .5(1 .5) .0252 = 2164.82 ≈ 2165 From part b, z.05 = 1.645. n1 n 2 ( zα / 2 ) 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( ME ) 2 (1.645) 2 .2(1 .2) .3(1 .3) 2 .03 1.00123 = 1112.48 ≈ 1113 .0009 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.60 a. For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 = n2 = b. 413 zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ME 2 (1.96) 2 (152 17 2 ) 3.22 = 192.83 ≈ 193 If the range of each population is 40, we would estimate σ by: σ ≈ 60/4 = 15 For confidence coefficient .99, α = 1 − .99 = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. n1 = n2 = 7.61 (2.58) 2 (152 152 ) = 46.80 ≈ 47 ME 2 82 For confidence coefficient .9, α = 1 − .9 = .1 and α/2 = .1/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. For a width of 1, the bound is .5. n1 = n2 = c. zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 n1 = n2 = zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ME 2 (1.645) 2 (5.82 7.52 ) .52 = 143.96 ≈ 144 ( zα / 2 )2 (σ12 σ 22 ) ( ME ) 2 For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 = n2 = 7.62 1.962 (14 14) 1.82 = 33.2 ≈ 34 First, find the sample sizes needed for width 5, or margin of error 2.5. For confidence coefficient .9, α = 1 − .9 = .1 and α/2 = .1/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. n1 = n2 = zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ME 2 (1.645) 2 (102 102 ) 2.52 = 86.59 ≈ 87 Thus, the necessary sample size from each population is 87. Therefore, sufficient funds have not been allocated to meet the specifications since n1 = n2 = 100 are large enough samples. 7.63 For confidence coefficient 0.99, α = 1 − .99 = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = 005. From the Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. n1 n1 zα / 2 2 (σ12 σ 22 ) ME 2 2.582 (12 12 ) .52 53.25 54 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 414 7.64 Chapter 7 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 = n2 = zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ( ME )2 1.962 (3.1892 2.3552 ) 1.52 = 26.8 ≈ 27 We would need to sample 27 specimens from each location. 7.65 For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. If we assume that we do not know the return rates, n1 n2 7.66 1.6452 (.5(.5) .5(.5)) .012 13, 530.1 13, 531 zα / 2 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( ME ) 2 1.6452 .5(.5) .5(.5) .022 = 3,382.5 ≈ 3,383 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 n 2 7.68 ME 2 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 − .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. Since no information is given about the values of p1 and p2, we will be conservative and use .5 for both. A width of .04 means the bound is .04/2 = .02. n1 = n2 = 7.67 z.05 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) a. ( zα / 2 )2 (σ12 σ 22 ) ( ME ) 2 1.962 (152 152 ) 12 = 1728.72 ≈ 1729 For confidence coefficient .80, α = 1 − .80 = .20 and α/2 = .20/2 = .10. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. Since we have no prior information about the proportions, we use p1 = p2 = .5 to get a conservative estimate. For a width of .06, the margin of error is .03. zα / 2 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) (1.28)2 .5(1 .5) .5(1 .5) = 910.22 ≈ 911 ME 2 .032 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 − .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. Using the formula for the sample size needed to estimate a proportion from Chapter 7, n1 = n2 = b. n zα / 2 2 ME 2 pq 1.6452 .5(1 .5) .022 .6765 = 1691.27 ≈ 1692 .0004 No, the sample size from part a is not large enough. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.69 a. For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 n2 7.70 7.72 zα / 2 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ME 2 1.962 (.184(.816) .177(.823)) .0152 5, 050.7 5, 051 b. The study would involve 5,051 × 2 = 10,102 patients. A study this large would be extremely time consuming and expensive. c. Since a difference of .015 is so small, the practical significance detecting a 0.015 difference may not be very worthwhile. A difference of .015 is so close to 0, that it might not make any difference. For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. n1 = n2 = 7.71 415 zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ( ME )2 1.962 (352 802 ) 102 = 292.9 ≈ 293 a. With ν1 = 9 and ν2 = 6, F.05 = 4.10. b. With ν1 = 18 and ν2 = 14, F.01 ≈ 3.57. (Since ν1 = 18 is not given, we estimate the value between those for ν1 = 15 and ν1 = 20.) c. With ν1 = 11 and ν2 = 4, F.025 ≈ 8.81. (Since ν1 = 11 is not given, we estimate the value by averaging those given for ν1 = 10 and ν1 = 12.) d. With ν1 = 20 and ν2 = 5, F.10 = 3.21. a. With ν1 = 2 and ν2 = 30, P(F ≥ 5.39) = .01 (Table X, Appendix B) b. With ν1 = 24 and ν2 = 10, P(F ≥ 2.74) = .05 (Table VIII, Appendix B) Thus, P(F < 2.74) = 1 − P(F ≥ 2.74) = 1 − .05 = .95. c. With ν1 = 7 and ν2 = 1, P(F ≥ 236.8) = .05 (Table VIII, Appendix B) Thus, P(F < 236.8) = 1 − P(F ≥ 236.8) = 1 − .05 = .95. d. With ν1 = 40 and ν2 = 40, P(F > 2.11) = .01 (Table X, Appendix B) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 416 7.73 7.74 7.75 Chapter 7 a. Reject H0 if F > F.10 = 1.74. (From Table VII, Appendix B, with ν1 = 30 and ν2 = 20.) b. Reject H0 if F > F.05 = 2.04. (From Table VIII, Appendix B, with ν1 = 30 and ν2 = 20.) c. Reject H0 if F > F.025 = 2.35. (From Table IX.) d. Reject H0 if F > F.01 = 2.78. (From Table X.) To test H0: σ12 σ 22 against Ha: σ12 σ 22 , the rejection region is F > Fα/2 with ν1 = 10 and ν2 = 12. a. α = .20, α/2 = .10 Reject H0 if F > F.10 = 2.19 (Table VII, Appendix B) b. α = .10, α/2 = .05 Reject H0 if F > F.05 = 2.75 (Table VIII, Appendix B) c. α = .05, α/2 = .025 Reject H0 if F > F.025 = 3.37 (Table IX, Appendix B) d. α = .02, α/2 = .01 Reject H0 if F > F.01 = 4.30 (Table X, Appendix B) a. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 − 1 = 25 − 1 = 24 and ν2 = n2 − 1 = 20 − 1 = 19. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 = 2.11. The rejection region is F > 2.11 (if s12 > s22 ). b. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 − 1 = 15 − 1 = 14 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 ≈ 3.01. The rejection region is F > 3.01 (if s22 > s12 ). c. The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution. If s12 > s22 , ν1 = n1 − 1 = 21 − 1 = 20 and ν2 = n2 − 1 = 31 − 1 = 30. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 = 1.93. The rejection region is F > 1.93. If s12 < s22 , ν1 = n2 − 1 = 30 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 20. From Table VIII, F.05 = 2.04. The rejection region is F > 2.04. d. The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 − 1 = 41 − 1 = 40 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 31 − 1 = 30. From Table X, Appendix B, F.01 = 2.30. The rejection region is F > 2.30 (if s22 > s12 ). e. The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution. If s12 > s22 , ν1 = n1 − 1 = 7 − 1 = 6 and ν2 = n2 − 1 = 16 − 1 = 15. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 3.41. The rejection region is F > 3.41. If s12 < s22 , ν1 = n2 − 1 = 15 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 6. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 5.27. The rejection region is F > 5.27. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.76 a. 417 To determine if a difference exists between the population variances, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 The test statistic is F = s22 s12 8.75 = 2.26 3.87 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 − 1 = 27 − 1 = 26 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 12 − 1 = 11. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 ≈ 2.60. The rejection region is F > 2.60. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 2.26 2.60), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference between the population variances. b. The p-value is 2P(F ≥ 2.26). From Tables VII and VIII, with ν1 = 26 and ν2 = 11, 2(.05) < 2P(F ≥ 2.26) < 2(.10) .10 < 2P(F ≥ 2.26) < .20 There is no evidence to reject H0 for α ≤ .10. 7.77 a. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Sample 1, Sample 2 Variable Sample 1 Sample 2 N 6 5 Mean 2.417 4.36 Median 2.400 3.70 TrMean 2.417 4.36 Variable Sample 1 Sample 2 Minimum 0.700 1.40 Maximum 4.400 8.90 Q1 1.075 1.84 Q3 3.650 7.20 StDev 1.436 2.97 SE Mean 0.586 1.33 To determine if the variance for population 2 is greater than that for population 1, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 The test statistic is F = s22 s12 = 2.972 1.4362 4.28 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 − 1 = 5 − 1 = 4 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 6 − 1 = 5. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 = 5.19. The rejection region is F > 5.19. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 4.29 5.19), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variance for population 2 is greater than that for population 1 at α = .05. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 418 Chapter 7 b. The p-value is P(F ≥ 4.28). From Tables VII and VIII, with ν1 = 4 and ν2 = 5, .05 < P(F ≥ 4.28) < .10 There is no evidence to reject H0 for α < .05 but there is evidence to reject H0 for α = .10. 7.78 Let σ12 = variance of the number of ads recalled by children in the video only group and σ 22 = variance of the number of ads recalled by children in the A/V group a. To determine if the group variances are equal, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 b. The test statistic is: F 7.79 s 2 2.132 larger sample variance 22 1.157 smaller sample variance s1 1.982 c. The rejection region requires α/2 = 0.10/2 = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν2 = n2 − 1 = 20 − 1 = 19 and ν1 = n1 − 1 = 20 − 1 = 19. From the Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 2.16. The rejection region is F > 2.16. d. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.157 2.16), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variances of the number of ads recalled by the children in the video-only group and the A/V group differ at α = 0.10. e. Since we could not reject H0 that the variances were equal, it indicates that the assumption of equal variances is probably valid. The inference about the population means is probably valid. a. 2 To determine if σ M is less than σ F2 , we test: 2 H0: σ M = σ F2 2 H a: σ M < σ F2 s2 Larger sample variance 6.942 2F 1.06 Smaller sample variance sM 6.732 b. The test statistic is F c. The rejection region requires α = .10 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = nF – 1 = 114 – 1 = 113 and ν2 = nM – 1 = 127 – 1 = 126. From Table VII, Appendix B, F.10 ≈ 1.26. The rejection region is F > 1.26. d. The p-value is P(F ≥ 1.06). From Table VII, Appendix B, with ν1 = 113 and ν2 = 126, .10 < P(F ≥ 1.06) or p > .10 e. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.063 1.26), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variation in the male perception scores is less than that for females at α = .10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.80 419 f. We must assume that we have two random and independent samples drawn from normal populations. a. The amount of variability of GHQ scores tells us how similar or different the members of the group are on GHQ scores. The larger the variability, the larger the differences are among the members on the GHQ scores. The smaller the variability, the smaller the differences are among the members on the GHQ scores. b. Let σ12 = variance of the mental health scores of the employed and σ 22 = variance of the mental health scores of the unemployed. To determine if the variability in mental health scores differs for employed and unemployed workers, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 c. The test statistic is F = Larger sample variance s12 5.102 = 2.45 Smaller sample variance s22 3.262 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 − 1 = 49 − 1 = 48 and ν2 = n1 − 1 = 142 − 1 = 141. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 1.61. The rejection region is F > 1.61. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 2.45 > 1.61), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the variability in mental health scores differs for employed and unemployed workers for α = 05. d. 7.81 We must assume that the 2 populations of mental health scores are normally distributed. We must also assume that we selected 2 independent random samples. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Novice, Experienced Variable Novice Experien N 12 12 Mean 32.83 20.58 Median 32.00 19.50 TrMean 32.60 20.60 Variable Novice Experien Minimum 20.00 10.00 Maximum 48.00 31.00 Q1 26.75 17.25 Q3 39.00 24.75 a. StDev 8.64 5.74 SE Mean 2.49 1.66 Let σ12 = variance in inspection errors for novice inspectors and σ 22 = variance in inspection errors for experienced inspectors. Since we wish to determine if the data support the belief that the variance is lower for experienced inspectors than for novice inspectors, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 The test statistic is F = Larger sample variance s 12 8.642 = 2.27 Smaller sample variance s 22 5.742 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 420 Chapter 7 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 − 1 = 12 − 1 = 11 and ν2 = n2 − 1 = 12 − 1 = 11. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 ≈ 2.82 (using interpolation). The rejection region is F > 2.82. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 2.27 2.82), H0 is not rejected. The sample data do not support her belief at α = .05. b. 7.82 The p-value = P(F ≥ 2.27) with ν1 = 11 and ν2 = 11. Checking Tables VII, VIII, IX, and X in Appendix B, we find F.10 = 2.23 and F.05 = 2.82. Since the observed value of F exceeds F.10 but is less than F.05, the observed significance level for the test is less than .10. So .05 < p-value < .10. Let σ12 = variance zinc measurements from the text-line, σ 22 = variance zinc measurements from the witness-line, and σ 32 = variance zinc measurements from the intersection. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Text-line, Witness-line, Intersection Variable Text-lin WitnessIntersec N 3 6 5 Mean 0.3830 0.3042 0.3290 Median 0.3740 0.2955 0.3190 TrMean 0.3830 0.3042 0.3290 Variable Text-lin WitnessIntersec Minimum 0.3350 0.1880 0.2850 Maximum 0.4400 0.4390 0.3930 Q1 0.3350 0.2045 0.2900 Q3 0.4400 0.4075 0.3730 a. StDev 0.0531 0.1015 0.0443 SE Mean 0.0306 0.0415 0.0198 To determine if the variation in the zinc measurements for the text-line and the intersection differ, we test: H0: σ12 = σ 32 Ha: σ12 ≠ σ 32 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 .05312 1.437 Smaller sample variance s32 .04432 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2 and ν2 = n3 – 1 = 5 – 1 = 4. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 10.65. The rejection region is F > 10.65. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.437 10.65), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variation in the zinc measurements for the text-line and the intersection differ at α = .05. b. To determine if the variation in the zinc measurements for the witness-line and the intersection differ, we test: H0: σ 22 = σ 32 Ha: σ 22 ≠ σ 32 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s22 .10152 5.250 Smaller sample variance s32 .04432 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 421 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n2 – 1 = 6 – 1 = 5 and ν2 = n3 – 1 = 5 – 1 = 4. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 9.36. The rejection region is F > 9.36. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 5.250 9.36), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variation in the zinc measurements for the witness-line and the intersection differ at α = .05. 7.83 c. There is no indication that the variances of the zinc measurements for three locations differ. d. With only 3, 6, and 5 measurements, it is very difficult to check the assumptions. a. Let σ12 = variance of the order-to-delivery times for the Persian Gulf War and σ 22 = variance of the order-to-delivery times for Bosnia. Descriptive Statistics: Gulf, Bosnia Variable Gulf Bosnia N 9 9 Mean 25.24 7.38 Median 27.50 6.50 TrMean 25.24 7.38 Variable Gulf Bosnia Minimum 9.10 3.00 Maximum 41.20 15.10 Q1 15.30 5.25 Q3 32.15 9.20 StDev 10.5204 3.6537 SE Mean 3.51 1.22 To determine if the variances of the order-to-delivery times for the Persian Gulf and Bosnia shipments are equal, we test: H0: Ha: σ12 σ 22 σ12 σ 22 =1 ≠1 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 10.52042 8.29 Smaller sample variance s22 3.6537 2 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 – 1 = 9 – 1 = 8 and ν2 = n2 – 1 = 9 – 1 = 8. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 4.43. The rejection region is F > 4.43. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 8.29 > 4.43), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variances of the order-to-delivery times for the Persian Gulf and Bosnia shipments differ at α = .05. b. No. One assumption necessary for the small sample confidence interval for (μ1 − μ2) is that σ12 σ 22 . For this problem, there is evidence to indicate that σ12 σ 22 . Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 422 7.84 Chapter 7 Using MINITAB, some preliminary calculations are: Descriptive Statistics: HEATRATE Variable HEATRATE ENGINE Advanced Aeroderiv Traditional N 21 7 39 Variable HEATRATE ENGINE Advanced Aeroderiv Traditional Q3 10060 14628 11964 a. N* 0 0 0 Mean 9764 12312 11544 SE Mean 139 1002 205 StDev 639 2652 1279 Minimum 9105 8714 10086 Q1 9252 9469 10592 Median 9669 12414 11183 Maximum 11588 16243 14796 To determine if the heat rate variances for traditional and aeroderivative augmented gas turbines differ, we test: H0: σ 22 = σ 32 Ha: σ 22 ≠ σ 32 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s22 26522 4.299 Smaller sample variance s32 12792 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F distribution with numerator df = ν2 = n2 – 1 = 7 – 1 = 6 and denominator df = ν3 = n3 – 1 = 39 – 1 = 38. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 2.74. The rejection region is F > 2.74. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 4.299 > 2.74), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the heat rate variances for traditional and aeroderivative augmented gas turbines differ at α = .05. Since the test in Exercise 7.23 a assumes that the population variances are the same, the validity of the test is suspect since we just found the variances are different. b. To determine if the heat rate variances for advanced and aeroderivative augmented gas turbines differ, we test: H0: σ12 = σ 22 Ha: σ12 ≠ σ 22 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 26522 17.224 Smaller sample variance s12 6392 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F distribution with numerator df = ν1 = n1 – 1 = 7 – 1 = 6 and denominator df = ν2 = n2 – 1 = 21 – 1 = 20. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 = 3.13. The rejection region is F > 3.13. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 17.224 > 3.13), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the heat rate variances for advanced and aeroderivative augmented gas turbines differ at α = .05. Since the test in Exercise 7.23 b assumes that the population variances are the same, the validity of the test is suspect since we just found the variances are different. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.85 423 Let σ12 = variance of improvement scores in the honey dosage group and σ 22 = variance of improvement scores in the DM dosage group. From Exercise 7.21, s1 = 2.855 and s2 = 3.256. To determine if the variability in coughing improvement scores differs for the two groups, we test: H0: σ 12 = σ 22 Ha: σ 12 ≠ σ 22 The test statistic is F = s 2 3.256 2 larger sample variance = 22 = = 1.30 smaller sample variance s1 2.855 2 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν2 = n2 − 1 = 33 − 1 = 32 and ν1 = n1 − 1 = 35 − 1 = 34. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 ≈ 1.84. The rejection region is F > 1.84. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.3 1.84), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variability in the coughing improvement scores differs for the two groups at α = .10. 7.86 a. The 2 samples are randomly selected in an independent manner from the two populations. The sample sizes, n1 and n2, are large enough so that x1 and x2 each have approximately normal sampling distributions and so that s12 and s22 provide good approximations to σ12 and σ 22 . This will be true if n1 ≥ 30 and n2 ≥ 30. 7.87 b. 1. 2. 3. Both sampled populations have relative frequency distributions that are approximately normal. The population variances are equal. The samples are randomly and independently selected from the populations. c. 1. 2. The relative frequency distribution of the population of differences is normal. The sample of differences are randomly selected from the population of differences. d. The two samples are independent random samples from binomial distributions. Both samples should be large enough so that the normal distribution provides an adequate approximation to the sampling distributions of p̂1 and p̂2 . e. The two samples are independent random samples from populations which are normally distributed. a. sp2 (n1 1) s12 (n1 1) s22 11(74.2) 13(60.5) = 66.7792 n1 n2 2 12 14 2 H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 The test statistic is t = ( x1 x2 ) 0 sp2 1 1 n n 1 2 = (17.8 - 15.3) 0 1 1 66.7792 + 12 14 = .78 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 424 Chapter 7 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 12 + 14 − 2 = 24. From Table V, Appendix B, for df = 24, t.05 = 1.711. The rejection region is t > 1.711. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (0.78 1.711), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that μ1 > μ2 at α = .05. b. For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 12 + 14 − 2 = 24, t.005 = 2.797. The confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( x1 x2 ) t.005 s 2p (17.8 15.3) 2.797 66.7792 12 14 n1 n2 2.50 8.99 (6.49, 11.49) c. For confidence coefficient .99, α = .01 and α/2 = .01/2 = .005. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. n1 n2 7.88 a. ( zα / 2 ) σ12 σ 22 ( ME ) 2 (2.58) (74.2 60.5) 224.15 225 2 22 H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 The test statistic is F = s2 Larger sample variance 120.1 22 3.84 Smaller sample variance 31.3 s1 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with numerator df ν1 = n2 − 1 = 15 − 1 = 14 and denominator df ν2 = n1 − 1 = 20 − 1 = 19. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 2.66. The rejection region is F > 2.66. b. 7.89 a. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 3.84 > 2.66), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to conclude σ12 σ 22 at α = .05. No, we should not use a small sample t test to test H0: (μ1 − μ2) = 0 against Ha: (μ1 − μ2) ≠ 0 because the assumption of equal variances does not seem to hold since we concluded σ12 σ 22 in part b. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) z.05 s12 s22 2.1 3.0 (12.2 8.3) 1.645 n1 n2 135 148 3.90 .31 (3.59, 4.21) Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses b. 425 H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) s12 n1 s22 (12.2 8.3) 0 2.1 3.0 135 148 n2 20.60 The rejection region requires α/2 = .01/2 = .005 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.005 = 2.58. The rejection region is z < −2.58 or z > 2.58. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (20.60 > 2.58), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that μ1 ≠ μ2 at α = .01. c. For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. n1 n2 7.90 ( zα / 2 ) σ12 σ 22 ( ME ) 2 (1.645) (2.1 3.0) 345.02 346 2 .2 2 Some preliminary calculations are: p̂1 = a. x1 110 x x x 130 110 130 240 = .55; p̂2 = 2 = .65; pˆ 1 2 n1 200 n2 200 n1 n2 200 200 400 H0: (p1 − p2) = 0 Ha: (p1 − p2) < 0 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.55 .65) 0 1 1 .6(1 .6) 200 200 .10 = −2.04 .049 The rejection region requires α = .10 in the lower tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.10 = 1.28. The rejection region is z < −1.28. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −2.04 < −1.28), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to conclude (p1 − p2 < 0) at α = .10. b. For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval for (p1 − p2) is approximately: pˆ1 qˆ2 pˆ 2 qˆ2 ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) zα / 2 n1 n2 .55(1 .55) .65(1 .65) 200 200 −.10 ± .096 (−.196, −.004) (.55 − .65) ± 1.96 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 426 Chapter 7 c. From part b, z.025 = 1.96. Using the information from our samples, we can use p1 = .55 and p2 = .65. For a width of .01, the margin of error is .005. n1 = n2 = 7.91 a. zα / 2 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ME 2 (1.96) 2 .55(1 .55) .65(1 .65) 2 .005 = 72990.4 ≈ 72,991 1.82476 .000025 This is a paired difference experiment. Pair Difference (Pop. 1 - Pop. 2) 1 2 3 4 5 6 4 4 3 2 nd nd d d i 1 nd i 19 3.8 5 sd2 di2 nd di i 1 2 nd i 1 nd 1 19 2 5 2.2 5 1 81 sd 2.2 1.4832 H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 The test statistic is t = d 0 sd nd 3.8 0 1.4832 / 5 = 5.73 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n − 1 = 5 − 1 = 4. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.776. The rejection region is t < −2.776 or t > 2.776. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (5.73 > 2.776), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that the population means are different at α = .05. b. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. Therefore, we would use the same t value as above, t.025 = 2.776. The confidence interval is: xd tα / 2 c. sd nd 3.8 3.8 2.776 1.4832 5 3.8 1.84 (1.96, 5.64) The sample of differences must be randomly selected from a population of differences which has a normal distribution. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.92 a. 427 Let p1 = proportion of Opening Doors students enrolled full time and p2 = proportion of traditional students enrolled full time. The target parameter for this comparison is p1 – p2. b. Let μ1 = mean GPA of Opening Doors students and μ2 = mean GPA of traditional students. The target parameter for this comparison is μ1 – μ2. 7.93 a. Let μ1 = average size of the right temporal lobe of the brain for the short-recovery group and μ2 = average size of the right temporal lobe of the brain for the long-recovery group. The target parameter is μ1 – μ2. We must assume that the two samples are random and independent, the two populations being sampled from are approximately normal, and the two population variances are equal. b. Let p1 = proportion of athletes who have a good self-image of their body and p2 = proportion of non-athletes who have a good self-image of their body. The target parameter for this comparison is p1 – p2. We must assume that the two samples are random and independent and that the sample sizes are sufficiently large. c. Let μ1 = average weight of eggs produced by a sample of chickens on regular feed and μ2 = average weight of eggs produced by a sample of chickens fed a diet supplemented by corn oil. Let μd = average difference in weight between eggs produced by the chickens on regular feed and then on a diet supplemented with corn oil. The target parameter is μd. We must assume that we have a random sample of differences and that the population of differences is approximately normal. 7.94 Using MINITAB, some preliminary calculations are: Descriptive Statistics: Spillage Variable Spillage Cause Collision Fire Grounding HullFail Unknown N 10 12 14 12 2 N* 0 0 0 0 0 Mean 76.6 70.9 47.79 54.4 26.00 SE Mean 22.3 17.5 7.61 16.3 1.00 Variable Spillage Cause Q3 Maximum Collision 102.0 257.0 Fire 80.5 239.0 Grounding 59.00 124.00 HullFail 46.0 221.0 Unknown * 27.00 StDev 70.4 60.7 28.47 56.4 1.41 Minimum 31.0 26.0 21.00 24.0 25.00 Q1 35.0 32.3 30.25 29.3 * Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Median 41.5 49.0 37.50 31.5 26.00 428 Chapter 7 a. Let μ1 = mean spillage for accidents caused by collision and μ2 = mean spillage for accidents caused by fire/explosion. s 2p n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 10 1 70.42 12 1 60.72 n1 n2 2 10 12 2 4, 256.7415 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 − .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 10 + 12 – 2 = 20, t.05 = 1.725. The confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( x1 x2 ) t.05 s 2p (76.6 70.9) 1.725 4256.7415 10 12 n1 n2 5.7 48.19 ( 42.59, 53.89) b. Let μ3 = mean spillage for accidents caused by grounding and μ4 = mean spillage for accidents caused by hull failure. s 2p n1 1 s12 n2 1 s22 14 1 28.472 12 1 56.42 n1 n2 2 14 12 2 1, 896.9830 To determine if the mean spillage amount for accidents caused by grounding is different from the mean spillage amount caused by hull failure, we test: H0: μ3 − μ4 = 0 Ha: μ3 − μ4 ≠ 0 The test statistic is t x1 x2 Do 1 1 s 2p n1 n2 47.79 54.4 0 1 1 1896.983 14 12 6.61 .39 17.1342 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 14 +12 – 2 = 24. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.064. The rejection region is t < −2.064 or t > 2.064. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (t = −.39 −2.064), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean spillage amount for accidents caused by grounding is different from the mean spillage amount caused by hull failure at α = .05. c. The necessary assumptions are: We must assume that the distributions from which the samples were selected are approximately normal, the samples are independent, and the variances of the two populations are equal. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 429 Below are the stem-and-leaf plots for each of the samples: Stem-and-leaf of Spillage Cause = Collision Leaf Unit = 10 (6) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 5 N = 12 2333 4455 7 8 3 3 Stem-and-leaf of Spillage Cause = Grounding Leaf Unit = 1.0 3 (5) 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 N 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 = 14 168 11678 15 8 2 1 4 Stem-and-leaf of Spillage Cause = Hull Failure Leaf Unit = 10 (8) 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 = 10 333444 69 2 Stem-and-leaf of Spillage Cause = Fire Leaf Unit = 10 4 (4) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 N N = 12 22233333 44 0 2 Based on the shapes of the stem-and-leaf plots, it does not appear that the data are normally distributed. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 430 Chapter 7 Also, we know that if the data are normally distributed, then the Interquartile Range, IQR, divided by the standard deviation should be approximately 1.3. We will compute IQR/s for each of the samples: Collision: Fire: Grounding: Hull Failure: IQR/s = (102.0 – 35.0) / 70.4 = .95 IQR/s = (80.5 – 32.3) / 60.7 = .79 IQR/s = (59.0 – 30.25) / 28.47 = 1.01 IQR/s = (46.0 – 29.3) / 56.4 = .29 Since all of these ratios are quite a bit smaller than 1.3, it indicates that none of the samples come from normal distributions. Thus, it appears that the assumption of normal distributions is violated. The sample standard deviations are: Collision: s = 70.4 Fire: s = 60.7 Grounding: s = 28.47 Hull Failure: s = 56.4 Without doing formal tests, it appears that the variances of the groups Collision, Fire, and Hull Failure are probably not significantly different. However, it appears that the variance for the grounding group is smaller than the others. d. Let σ12 = variance of spillage for accidents caused by collision and σ 22 = variance of spillage for accidents caused by grounding. To determine if the variances of the amounts of spillage due to collision and grounding differ, we test: H0: σ12 = σ 22 Ha: σ12 ≠ σ 22 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 70.42 2 6.11 Smaller sample variance s2 28.472 The rejection region requires α/2 = .02/2 = .01 in the upper tail of the F distribution with numerator df = ν1 = n1 – 1 = 10 – 1 = 9 and denominator df = ν2 = n2 – 1 = 14 – 1 = 13. From Table X, Appendix B, F.01 = 4.19. The rejection region is F > 4.19. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 6.11 > 4.19), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variances of the amounts of spillage due to collision and grounding differ at α = .02. 7.95 a. Yes. The sample mean of the virtual-reality group is 10.67 points higher than the sample mean of the simple user interface group. b. Let μ1 = mean improvement score for the virtual-reality group and μ2 = mean improvement score for the simple user interface group. To determine if the mean improvement scores for the virtual-reality group is higher than that for the simple user interface group, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses The test statistic is z = ( x1 − x2 ) − Do σ σ + n2 n1 2 1 2 2 = ( 43.15 − 32.48) − 0 12.57 9.26 + 45 45 2 2 = 431 10.67 = 4.58 2.3274 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 4.58 > 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean improvement scores for the virtual-reality group is higher than that for the simple user interface group α = .05. 7.96 a. Since there is much variability among cars, by using matched pairs, we can block out the variability among the cars and compare the means of the 2 types of shocks. b. Let µ1 = mean strength of manufacturer’s shock and µ2 = mean strength of competitor’s shock. Also, let µd = µ1 − µ2. Using MINITAB the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Manufacturer, Competitor, Di Variable Manufacturer Competitor Di N 6 6 6 Mean 10.717 10.300 0.4167 StDev 1.752 1.818 0.1329 Minimum 8.800 8.400 0.2000 Q1 9.400 8.850 0.3500 Median 10.100 9.700 0.4000 Q3 12.675 12.250 0.5250 Maximum 13.200 13.000 0.6000 To determine if there is a difference in the mean strength of the two types of shocks after 20,000 miles, we test: Ho: µd = 0 Ha: µd 0 The test statistic is t d 0 .4167 0 7.68 sd .1329 nd 6 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 6 – 1 = 5. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.571. The rejection region is t < −2.571 or t > 2.571. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 7.68 > 2.571), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean strength of the two types of shocks after 20,000 miles at α = .05. c. The observed significance level is P(t ≥ 7.68) + P(t ≤ -7.68) = 2P(t ≥ 7.68) < 2(.0005) < .0010 (using Table V, Appendix B). d. We must assume that the population of differences is normally distributed and that the sample is random. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 432 Chapter 7 e. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nd – 1 = 6 – 1 = 5, t.025 = 2.571. The 95% confidence interval is: d z.025 sd nd .4167 2.571 .1329 6 .4167 .1395 (.2772, .5562) We are 95% confident that the difference in mean strength between the two types of shocks after 20,000 miles is between .2772 and .5562. f. Some preliminary calculations are: s 2p (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (6 1)1.7522 (6 1)1.8182 3.1873 n1 n2 2 662 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 – 2 = 6 + 6 – 2 = 10, t.025 = 2.228. The 95% confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( μ1 μ 2 ) t.025 s 2p (10.717 10.300) 2.228 3.1873 6 6 n1 n2 .417 2.2965 (1.8795, 2.7135) We are 95% confident that the difference in mean strength between the two types of shocks after 20,000 miles is between -1.8795 and 2.7135. 7.97 g. The interval assuming independent sample in part f is (−1.8795, 2.7135) while the interval assuming paired differences in part e is (.2772, .5562). The interval assuming independent samples is wider. The interval from part e gives more information because the interval is narrower. h. No. If the data were collected using a paired experiment, then the data must be analyzed as a paired experiment. a. The data should be analyzed using a paired-difference analysis because that is how the data were collected. Reaction times were collected twice from each subject, once under the random condition and once under the static condition. Since the two sets of data are not independent, they cannot be analyzed using independent samples analyses. b. Let μ1 = mean reaction time under the random condition and μ2 = mean reaction time under the static condition. Let μd = μ1 − μ2. To determine if there is a difference in mean reaction time between the two conditions, we test: H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 c. The test statistic is t = 1.52 with a p-value of .15. Since the p-value is not small, there is no evidence to reject H0 for any reasonable value of α. There is insufficient evidence to indicate a difference in the mean reaction times between the two conditions. This supports the researchers' claim that visual search has no memory. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.98 a. 433 Let μ1 = mean carat size of diamonds certified by GIA and μ2 = mean carat size of diamonds certified by HRD. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval is: σ12 ( x1 x2 ) zα / 2 n1 σ 22 n2 (.6723 .8129) 1.96 .24562 .18312 151 79 .1406 .0563 (.1969, .0843) b. We are 95% confident that the difference in mean carat size between diamonds certified by GIA and those certified by HRD is between -.1969 and -.0843. c. Let μ3 = mean carat size of diamonds certified by IGI. ( x1 x3 ) zα / 2 σ12 n1 σ 32 n3 (.6723 .3665) 1.96 .24562 .21632 151 78 .3058 .0620 (.2438, .3678) d. We are 95% confident that the difference in mean carat size between diamonds certified by GIA and those certified by IGI is between .2438 and .3678. e. ( x2 x3 ) zα / 2 σ 22 n2 σ 32 n3 (.8129 .3665) 1.96 .18312 .21632 79 78 .4464 .0627 (.3837, .5091) f. We are 95% confident that the difference in mean carat size between diamonds certified by HRD and those certified by IGI is between .3837 and .5091. Let σ12 = variance of carat size for diamonds certified by GIA, σ 22 = variance of carat size for diamonds certified by HRD, and σ 32 = variance of carat size for diamonds certified by IGI. g. To determine if the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by GIA and diamonds certified by HRD, we test: H0: σ12 = σ 22 Ha: σ12 ≠ σ 22 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 .24562 1.799 Smaller sample variance s22 .18312 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 – 1 = 151 – 1 = 150 and ν2 = n2 – 1 = 79 – 1 = 78. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 1.43. The rejection region is F > 1.43. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (F = 1.799 > 1.43), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by GIA and those certified by HRD at α = .05. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 434 Chapter 7 h. To determine if the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by GIA and diamonds certified by IGI, we test: H0: σ12 = σ 32 Ha: σ12 ≠ σ 32 The test statistic is F Larger sample variance s12 .24562 1.289 Smaller sample variance s32 .21632 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 – 1 = 151 – 1 = 150 and ν2 = n3 – 1 = 78 – 1 = 77. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 1.43. The rejection region is F > 1.43. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.289 1.43), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by GIA and those certified by IGI at α = .05. i. To determine if the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by HRD and diamonds certified by IGI, we test: H0: σ 22 = σ 32 Ha: σ 22 ≠ σ 32 The test statistic is F 2 Larger sample variance s3 .21632 2 1.396 Smaller sample variance s2 .18312 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n3 – 1 = 78 – 1 = 77 and ν2 = n2 – 1 = 79 – 1 = 78. From Table IX, Appendix B, F.025 ≈ 1.67. The rejection region is F > 1.67. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 1.396 1.67), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the variation in carat size differs for diamonds certified by HRD and those certified by IGI at α = .05. We will look at the 4 methods for determining if the data are normal. First, we will look at histograms of the data. Using MINITAB, the histograms of the carat sizes for the 3 certification bodies are: 40 40 30 30 20 Percent Percent j. 20 10 10 0 0 0.0 0.5 GIA 1.0 0.0 0.5 HRD Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 1.0 Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 435 40 Percent 30 20 10 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 IGI From the histograms, none of the data appear to be mound-shaped. It appears that none of the data sets are normal. Next, we look at the intervals x s, x 2s, x 3s . If the proportions of observations falling in each interval are approximately .68, .95, and 1.00, then the data are approximately normal. Using MINITAB, the summary statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: GIA, IGI, HRD Variable GIA IGI HRD N 151 78 79 Mean 0.6723 0.3665 0.8129 Median 0.7000 0.2900 0.8100 TrMean 0.6713 0.3406 0.8169 Variable GIA IGI HRD Minimum 0.3000 0.1800 0.5000 Maximum 1.1000 1.0100 1.0900 Q1 0.5000 0.2100 0.6500 Q3 0.9000 0.4850 1.0000 StDev 0.2456 0.2163 0.1831 SE Mean 0.0200 0.0245 0.0206 For GIA: x s .6723 .2456 (.4267, .9179) 84 of the 151 values fall in this interval. The proportion is .56. This is much smaller than the .68 we would expect if the data were normal. x 2s .6723 2(.2456) .6723 .4912 (.1811, 1.1635) 151 of the 151 values fall in this interval. The proportion is 1.00. This is much larger than the .95 we would expect if the data were normal. x 3s .6723 3(.2456) .6723 .7368 ( .0645, 1.4091) 151 of the 151 values fall in this interval. The proportion is 1.00. This is the same as the 1.00 we would expect if the data were normal. From this method, it appears that the data are not normal. For IGI: x s .3665 .2163 (.1502, .5828) 69 of the 78 values fall in this interval. The proportion is .88. This is much larger than the .68 we would expect if the data were normal. x 2s .3665 2(.2163) .3665 .4326 ( .0661, .7991) 74 of the 78 values fall in this interval. The proportion is .95. This is the same as the .95 we would expect if the data were normal. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 436 Chapter 7 x 3s .3665 3(.2163) .3665 .6489 (.2824, 1.0154) 78 of the 78 values fall in this interval. The proportion is 1.00. This is the same as the 1.00 we would expect if the data were normal. From this method, it appears that the data are not normal. For HRD: x s .8129 .1831 (.6298, .9960) 30 of the 79 values fall in this interval. The proportion is .38. This is much smaller than the .68 we would expect if the data were normal. x 2s .8129 2(.1831) .8129 .3662 (.4467, 1.1791) 79 of the 79 values fall in this interval. The proportion is 1.00. This is much larger than the .95 we would expect if the data were normal. x 3s .8129 3(.1831) .8129 .5493 (.2636, 1.3622) 79 of the 79 values fall in this interval. The proportion is 1.00. This is the same as the 1.00 we would expect if the data were normal. From this method, it appears that the data are not normal. Next, we look at the ratio of the IQR to s. For GIA: IQR = QU – QL = 1.1 − .3 = .8. IQR .8 3.26 This is much larger than the 1.3 we would expect if the data were normal. s .2456 This method indicates the data are not normal. For IGI: IQR = QU – QL = 1.01 - .18 = .83. IQR .83 3.84 This is much larger than the 1.3 we would expect if the data were normal. s .2163 This method indicates the data are not normal. For HRD: IQR = QU – QL = 1.09 - .5 = .59. IQR .59 3.22 This is much larger than the 1.3 we would expect if the data were normal. s .1831 This method indicates the data are not normal. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 437 Finally, using MINITAB, the normal probability plot for GIA is: Normal Probability Plot for GIA ML Estimates - 95% CI ML Estimates 99 Percent 95 90 Mean 0.672252 StDev 0.244757 Goodness of Fit 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 AD* 3.332 10 5 1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Data Since the data do not form a straight line, the data are not normal. Using MINITAB, the normal probability plot for IGI is: Normal Probability Plot for IGI ML Estimates - 95% CI ML Estimates 99 Mean 0.366538 StDev 0.214863 Percent 95 90 Goodness of Fit 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 AD* 10 5 1 0.0 0.5 1.0 Data Since the data do not form a straight line, the data are not normal. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 5.622 438 Chapter 7 Using MINITAB, the normal probability plot for HRD is: Normal Probability Plot for HRD ML Estimates - 95% CI ML Estimates 99 Mean 0.812911 StDev 0.181890 Percent 95 90 Goodness of Fit 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 AD* 3.539 10 5 1 0.5 1.0 1.5 Data Since the data do not form a straight line, the data are not normal. 7.99 a. From the 4 different methods, all indications are that the carat size data are not normal for any of the certification bodies. Let μ1 = mean response by noontime watchers and μ2 = mean response by non-noontime watchers. To determine if the mean response differs for noontime and non-noontime watchers, we test: H0: μ1 = μ2 Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2 7.100 b. Since the p-value (p = .02) is less than α = .05, H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean response differs for noontime and non-noontime watchers at α = .05. c. Since the p-value (p = .02) is greater than α = .01, H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the mean response differs for noontime and non-noontime watchers at α = .01. d. Since the two sample means are so close together, there appears to be no “practical” difference between the two means. Even if there is a statistically significant difference between the two means, there is no practical difference. a. Let p1 = proportion of managers and professionals who are male and p2 = proportion of part-time MBA students who are male. To see if the samples are sufficiently large: n1 pˆ1 162(.95) 153.9 and n1 qˆ1 162(.05) 8.1 n2 pˆ 2 109(.689) 75.101 and n2 qˆ2 109(.311) 33.899 Since n1 qˆ1 8.1 15, the normal approximation may not be adequate. We will go ahead and perform the test Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 439 First, we calculate the overall estimate of the common proportion under H0. pˆ n1 pˆ1 n2 pˆ 2 162(.95) 109(.689) = .845 n1 n2 162 109 To determine if the population of managers and professionals consists of more males than the part-time MBA population, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p 1 > p 2 > 0 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.95 .689) 0 1 1 .845(.155) 162 109 = 5.82 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z > 1.645. b. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection (z = 5.82 > 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that population of managers and professionals consists of more males than the part-time MBA population at α = .05. We had to assume: c. 1. Both samples were randomly selected 2. Both sample sizes are sufficiently large. First, we calculate the overall estimate of the common proportion under H0. pˆ n1 pˆ1 n2 pˆ 2 162(.912) 109(.534) = .760 n1 n2 162 109 To determine if the population of managers and professionals consists of more married individuals than the part-time MBA population, we test: H0: p1 = p2 Ha: p 1 > p 2 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.912 .534) 0 1 1 .760(.240) 162 109 = 7.14 The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z > 2.33. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection (z = 7.14 > 2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that population of managers and professionals consists of more married individuals than the part-time MBA population at α = .01. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 440 Chapter 7 d. We had to assume: 1. Both samples were randomly selected 2. Both sample sizes are sufficiently large. 7.101 To determine if there is a difference in the proportions of consumer/commercial and industrial product managers who are at least 40 years old, we could use either a test of hypothesis or a confidence interval. Since we are asked only to determine if there is a difference in the proportions, we will use a test of hypothesis. Let p1 = proportion of consumer/commercial product managers at least 40 years old and p2 = proportion of industrial product managers at least 40 years old. p̂1 = .40 q̂1 = 1 − p̂1 = 1 − .40 = .60 p̂2 = .54 q̂2 = 1 − p̂1 = 1 − .54 = .46 p̂ = n1 pˆ1 n2 pˆ 2 93(.40) 212(.54) = = .497 n1 n2 93 212 q̂ = 1 − p̂ = 1 − .497 = .503 To see if the samples are sufficiently large: n1 pˆ1 93(.4) 37.2 and n1 qˆ1 93.6(.6) 55.8 n2 pˆ 2 212(.54) 114.48 and n2 qˆ2 212(.46) 97.52 Since all values are greater than 15, the normal approximation will be adequate. To determine if there is a difference in the proportions of consumer/commercial and industrial product managers who are at least 40 years old, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p 1 − p 2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 = (.40 .54) 0 1 1 .497(.503) 93 212 = −2.25 We will use α = .05. The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = −2.25 < −1.96), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the proportions of consumer/commercial and industrial product managers who are at least 40 years old at α = .05. Since the test statistic is negative, there is evidence to indicate that the industrial product managers tend to be older than the consumer/commercial product managers. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.102 a. 441 The descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: US, Japan Variable US Japan N 5 5 Mean 6.562 3.118 Median 6.870 3.220 TrMean 6.562 3.118 Variable US Japan Minimum 4.770 1.920 Maximum 8.000 4.910 Q1 5.415 1.970 Q3 7.555 4.215 s 2p StDev 1.217 1.227 SE Mean 0.544 0.549 (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (5 1)1.217 2 (5 1)1.227 2 1.4933 n1 n2 2 55 2 To determine if the mean annual percentage turnover for U.S. plants exceeds that for Japanese plants, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 > 0 The test statistic is t = ( x1 x2 ) D0 1 1 sp2 n1 n2 (6.562 3.118) 0 1 1 1.4933 5 5 = 4.456 The rejection region requires α = .05 in the upper tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 5 + 5 − 2 = 8. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.860. The rejection region is t > 1.860. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 4.46 > 1.860), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean annual percentage turnover for U.S. plants exceeds that for Japanese plants at α = .05. b. The p-value = P(t ≥ 4.456). Using Table V, Appendix B, with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 5 + 5 – 2 = 8, .005 < P(t ≥ 4.456) < .001. Since the p-value is so small, there is evidence to reject H0 for α > .005. c. The necessary assumptions are: 1. 2. 3. Both sampled populations are approximately normal. The population variances are equal. The samples are randomly and independently sampled. There is no indication that the populations are not normal. Both sample variances are similar, so there is no evidence the population variances are unequal. There is no indication the assumptions are not valid. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 442 7.103 Chapter 7 Let p1 = unemployment rate for the urban industrial community and p2 = unemployment rate for the university community. Some preliminary calculations are: p̂1 = x1 47 = .0895 n1 525 p̂2 = x2 22 = .0587 n2 375 For confidence coefficient .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) ± z.025 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 n1 n2 .0895(.9105) .0587(.9413) 525 375 .0308 ± .0341 (−.0033, .0649) (.0895 − .0587) ± 1.96 We are 95% confident the difference in unemployment rates in the two communities is between −.0033 and .0649. 7.104 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 − .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. We estimate p1 = p2 = .5. n1 − n2 = 7.105 a. zα / 2 2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( ME )2 (1.645)2 .5(.5) .5(.5) .052 = 541.205 ≈ 542 Let μ1 = mean ingratiatory score for managers and μ2 = mean ingratiatory score for clerical personnel. To determine if there is a difference in ingratiatory behavior between managers and clerical personnel, we test: H0: μ1 = μ2 Ha: μ1 ≠ μ2 b. The test statistic is z = ( x1 x2 ) D0 s12 n1 s22 n2 (2.41 1.90) 0 (.74) 2 (.59) 2 288 110 = 7.17 The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 7.17 > 1.96), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate a difference in ingratiatory behavior between managers and clerical personnel at α = .05. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses c. 443 For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval is: ( x1 x2 ) z.025 s12 s22 .74 2 .59 2 (2.41 1.90) 1.96 n1 n2 288 110 .51 ± .14 (.37, .65) We are 95% confident that the difference in mean ingratiatory scores between managers and clerical personnel is between .37 and .65. Since this interval does not contain 0, it is consistent with the test of hypothesis which rejected the hypothesis that there was no difference in mean scores for the two groups. 7.106 Let p1 = proportion of larvae that died in containers containing high carbon dioxide levels and p2 = proportion of larvae that died in containers containing normal carbon dioxide levels. The parameter of interest for this problem is p1 − p2, or the difference in the death rates for the two groups. Some preliminary calculations are: pˆ x1 x2 .10(80) .05(80) = .075 n1 n2 80 80 q̂ = 1 − p̂ = 1 − .075 = .925 To determine if an increased level of carbon dioxide is effective in killing a higher percentage of leafeating larvae, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p 1 − p 2 > 0 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq 80 80 (.10 .05) 0 1 1 .075(.925) 80 80 = 1.201 The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the z distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z > 2.33. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = 1.201 2.33), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate that an increased level of carbon dioxide is effective in killing a higher percentage of leaf-eating larvae at α = .01. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 444 7.107 Chapter 7 a. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Purchasers, Nonpurchasers Variable Purchase Nonpurch N 20 20 Mean 39.80 47.20 Median 38.00 52.00 TrMean 39.67 47.56 Variable Purchase Nonpurch Minimum 23.00 22.00 Maximum 59.00 66.00 Q1 32.25 33.50 Q3 48.75 58.75 s 2p StDev 10.04 13.62 SE Mean 2.24 3.05 (n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22 (20 1)10.042 (20 1)13.622 143.153 n1 n2 2 20 20 2 Let μ1 = mean age of nonpurchasers and μ2 = mean age of purchasers. To determine if there is a difference in the mean age of purchasers and nonpurchasers, we test: H0: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is t ( x1 x2 ) 0 s 2p 1 1 n n 1 2 (47.20 39.80) 0 1 1 143.153 20 20 1.956 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = n1 + n2 − 2 = 20 + 20 − 2 = 38. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 ≈ 1.684. The rejection region is t < −1.684 or t > 1.684. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 1.956 > 1.684), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean age of purchasers and nonpurchasers differ at α = .10. b. The necessary assumptions are: 1. 2. 3. c. Both sampled populations are approximately normal. The population variances are equal. The samples are randomly and independently sampled. The p-value is P(z ≤ −1.956) + P(z ≥ 1.956) = (.5 − .4748) + (.5 − .4748) = .0504. The probability of observing a test statistic of this value or more unusual if H0 is true is .0504. Since this value is less than α = .10, H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate there is a difference in the mean age of purchasers and nonpurchasers. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses d. 445 For confidence coefficient .90, α = 1 − .90 = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = 38, t.05 ≈ 1.684. The confidence interval is: 1 1 1 1 ( x2 x1 ) t.05 sp2 (39.8 − 47.2) ± 1.684 143.1684 20 20 n1 n2 −7.4 ± 6.38 (−13.77, −1.03) We are 90% confident that the difference in mean ages between purchasers and nonpurchasers is between −13.77 and −1.03. 7.108 a. Let p1 = proportion of female students who switched due to loss of interest in SME and p2 = proportion of male students who switched due to lack of interest in SME. Some preliminary calculations are: p̂1 = x1 x x x2 74 72 74 72 = .43; p̂2 = 2 = .44; p̂ = 1 = .436 n1 172 n2 163 n1 n2 172 163 To determine if the proportion of female students who switch due to lack of interest in SME differs from the proportion of males who switch due to a lack of interest, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p 1 − p 2 ≠ 0 The test statistic is z = ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) 0 1 1 ˆˆ pq n1 n2 (.43 .44) 0 1 1 .436(.564) 172 163 = −0.18 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < −1.645 or z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (z = −0.18 1.645), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the proportion of female students who switch due to lack of interest in SME differs from the proportion of males who switch due to a lack of interest in SME at α = .10. b. Let p1 = proportion of female students who switched due to low grades in SME and p2 = proportion of male students who switched due to low grades in SME. Some preliminary calculations are: p̂1 = x1 33 = .19; n1 172 p̂2 = x2 44 = .27 n2 163 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 446 Chapter 7 For confidence coefficient .90, α = .10 and α/2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The confidence interval is: ( pˆ1 pˆ 2 ) z.05 pˆ1 qˆ1 pˆ 2 qˆ2 .19(.81) .27(.73) (.19 − .27) ± 1.645 172 163 n1 n2 −.08 ± .075 (−.155, −.005) We are 90% confident that the difference between the proportions of female and male switchers who lost confidence due to low grades in SME is between −.155 and −.005. Since the interval does not include 0, there is evidence to indicate the proportion of female switchers due to low grades is less than the proportion of male switchers due to low grades. 51 7.109 d i 1 i μd b. We do not need to estimate anything – we know the parameter’s value. c. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: 51 335 6.57 51 a. Descriptive Statistics: SAT2007, SAT2000, Difference Variable SAT2007 SAT2000 Difference N Mean StDev 51 1072.7 78.1 51 1066.1 65.9 51 6.57 22.41 Minimum Q1 Median Q3 931.0 1004.0 1048.0 1143.0 966.0 1007.0 1054.0 1120.0 -73.00 -5.00 5.00 19.00 Maximum 1221.0 1197.0 54.00 Let μ1 = mean SAT score in 2007 and μ2 = mean SAT score in 2000. Then μd = μ1 − μ2. determine if the true mean SAT score in 2007 differs from that in 2000, we test: To H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 The test statistic is z d Do 6.57 0 2.09 sd 22.41 nd 51 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in each tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.05 = 1.645. The rejection region is z < −1.645 or z > 1.645. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 2.09 > 1.645), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the true mean SAT score in 2007 is different than that in 2000 at α = .10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 7.110 For confidence level .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The standard deviation can be estimated by dividing the range by 4: Range 4 = =1 4 4 σ≈ n1 = n2 = 7.111 zα / 2 2 σ12 σ 22 ( ME )2 1.962 (12 12 ) .22 = 192.08 ≈ 193 For probability .95, α = 1 − .95 = .05 and α/2 = .05/2 = .025. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. Since we have no prior information about the proportions, we use p1 = p2 = .5 to get a conservative estimate. n1 n2 7.112 447 ( zα / 2 )2 ( p1 q1 p2 q2 ) ( ME ) 2 (1.96) 2 .5(1 .5) .5(1 .5) .02 2 1.9208 4, 802 .0004 Some preliminary calculations are: x 2 1 s12 s22 x 2 1 n1 n1 1 x22 x 2252 5 126 = 31.5 5 1 4 10, 251 2 2 n2 n2 1 227 2 5 45.2 = 11.3 5 1 4 10, 351 Let σ12 = variance for instrument A and σ 22 = variance for instrument B. Since we wish to determine if there is a difference in the precision of the two machines, we test: H0: σ12 σ 22 Ha: σ12 σ 22 The test statistic is F = Larger sample variance s12 31.5 = = 2.79 Smaller sample variance s22 11.3 The rejection region requires α/2 = .10/2 = .05 in the upper tail of the F-distribution with ν1 = n1 − 1 = 5 − 1 = 4 and ν2 = n2 − 1 = 5 − 1 = 4. From Table VIII, Appendix B, F.05 = 6.39. The rejection region is F > 6.39. Since the observed value of the test statistic does not fall in the rejection region (F = 2.79 6.39), H0 is not rejected. There is insufficient evidence of a difference in the precision of the two instruments at α = .10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 448 7.113 Chapter 7 a. Let μd = mean difference in pupil dilation between pattern 1 and pattern 2. To determine if the pupil dilation differs for the two patterns, we test: H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd ≠ 0 b. Using MINITAB, the descriptive statistics are: Descriptive Statistics: Pattern1, Pattern2, Diff Variable Pattern1 Pattern2 Diff N 15 15 15 Mean 1.122 0.883 0.2393 Median 1.000 0.910 0.2100 TrMean 1.141 0.892 0.2338 Variable Pattern1 Pattern2 Diff Minimum 0.150 0.050 -0.0400 Maximum 1.850 1.600 0.5900 Q1 0.850 0.650 0.1200 Q3 1.460 1.220 0.3100 The test statistic is t StDev 0.505 0.453 0.1608 SE Mean 0.130 0.117 0.0415 d D0 .2393 0 5.76 sd 0.1608 nd 15 Since no α is given, we will use α = .05. The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 15 – 1 = 14. From Table V, Appendix B, t.025 = 2.145. The rejection region is t < −2.145 or t > 2.145. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = 5.76 > 2.145), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate that there is a difference in the mean pupil dilation between pattern 1 and pattern 2 at α = .05. 7.114 c. The paired difference design is better. There is much variation in pupil dilation from person to person. By using the paired difference design, we can eliminate the person to person differences. a. Let μ1 = mean scale score for employees who report positive spillover of work skills and μ2 = mean scale score for employees who did not report positive work spillover. To determine if the mean scale score for employees who report positive spillover of work skills differs from the mean scale score for employees who did not report positive work spillover, we test: Ho: μ1 − μ2 = 0 Ha: μ1 − μ2 ≠ 0 b. It is appropriate to apply the large sample z-test because there are 114 workers that have been studied and divided into two groups. c. From the printout, the test statistics is t = 8.847 (equal variances not assumed). Since the sample sizes are so large, we can assume that this test statistic is essentially a z. Thus, the test statistic is z = 8.847. The rejection region requires α/2 = .05/2 = .025 in each tail of the z distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.025 = 1.96. The rejection region is z < −1.96 or z > 1.96. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. Inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence Intervals and Tests of Hypotheses 449 Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 8.847 > 1.96), Ho is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean scale score for employees who report positive spillover of work skills is different from the mean scale score for employees who did not report positive work spillover at α = .05. d. We are 95% confident that the difference between the mean use of creative ideas scale scores for the two groups in between .627 and .988. Since interval does not contain 0, then we can say that there is a significant difference on the mean scale scores between the two groups. Yes, the inference derived from the confidence interval agrees with that from the hypothesis test. e. Let p1 = proportion of male workers who reported positive work spillover and p2 = proportion of male workers who did not report positive spillover of work skills. To determine if the proportions of male workers in the two groups are significantly different, we test: H0: p1 − p2 = 0 Ha: p1 − p2 0 From the printout, the test statistic is z = .75 and the p-value is .453. Since the p-value is not small, there is no evidence to reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to indicate the proportions of male workers in the two groups are significantly different at any value of α < .453. 7.115 Attitude towards the Advertisement: The p-value = .091. There is no evidence to reject H0 for α = .05. There is no evidence to indicate the first ad will be more effective when shown to males for α = .05. There is evidence to reject H0 for α = .10. There is evidence to indicate the first ad will be more effective when shown to males for α = .10. Attitude toward Brand of Soft Drink: The p-value = .032. There is evidence to reject H0 for α > .032. There is evidence to indicate the first ad will be more effective when shown to males for α > .032. Intention to Purchase the Soft Drink: The p-value = .050. There is no evidence to reject H0 for α = .05. There is no evidence to indicate the first ad will be more effective when shown to males for α = .05. There is evidence to reject H0 for α > .050. There is evidence to indicate the first ad will be more effective when shown to males for α > .050. No, I do not agree with the author’s hypothesis. The results agree with the author’s hypothesis for only the attitude toward the advertisement id using α = .05. If we want to use α = .10, then the author’s hypotheses are all supported. 7.116 a. To determine if the mean salary of all males with post-graduate degrees exceeds the mean salary of all females with post-graduate degrees, we test: H0: μM = μF Ha: μM > μF ( xM xF ) 0 The test statistic is z c. The rejection region requires α = .01 in the upper tail of the z-distribution. From Table IV, Appendix B, z.01 = 2.33. The rejection region is z > 2.33. s x2M s x2F (61, 340 32, 227) b. 2,1852 9322 12.26 Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. 450 Chapter 7 d. 7.117 Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (z = 12.26 > 2.33), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate the mean salary of all males with post-graduate degrees exceeds the mean salary of all females with post-graduate degrees at α = .01. Some preliminary calculations are: Difference (Design 1 - Design 2) −53 −271 −206 −266 −213 −183 −118 −87 Working Days 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/23 8/24 8/25 d = sd2 = sd = d = nd d 2 1, 397 = −174.625 8 d 2 nd nd 1 s d2 = (1, 397) 2 8 = 6,548.839 8 1 289, 793 = 6, 548.839 = 80.925 To determine if Design 2 is superior to Design 1, we test: H0: μd = 0 Ha: μd < 0 The test statistic is t d μo sd nd 174.625 0 80.925 8 6.103 Since no α value was given, we will use α = .05. The rejection region requires α = .05 in the lower tail of the t-distribution with df = nd – 1 = 8 – 1 = 7. From Table V, Appendix B, t.05 = 1.895. The rejection region is t < −1.895. Since the observed value of the test statistic falls in the rejection region (t = −6.103 < −1.895), H0 is rejected. There is sufficient evidence to indicate Design 2 is superior to Design 1 at α = .05. For confidence coefficient .95, α = .05 and α/2 = .025. From Table V, Appendix B, with df = nd − 1 = 8 − 1 = 7, t.025 = 2.365. A 95% confidence interval for μd is: d t.025 sd nd 174.625 2.365 80.925 8 174.625 67.666 (242.29, 106.96) Since this interval does not contain 0, there is evidence to indicate Design 2 is superior to Design 1. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.